thegreatRDU From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2311 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 68673 times:
mandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6991 posts, RR: 78
Reply 2, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 68720 times:
From Previous thread:
Quoting TravelAVNut (Reply 224): Pardon my ignorance, but where would one find an old and very poorly maintained old A330?
Does my flag give a hint?
Quoting LY777 (Reply 221): Theses crashes were due to human errors
To which this one could be another one... but on the 330 instead.
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 220): Quite likely based on what very little we can see of the debris pattern. Especially the tail structure being relatively intact contributed to that possibility.
Botched go-around anyone?
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
trigged From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 543 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 68383 times:
From previous thread...
Quote: Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 193):
No post impact fire happens a lot more often than most people thing. I have seen four aircraft crash in my lifetime - and two of them had no fire. Both had plenty of fuel on board when they crashed.
I think your assessment that the crash impact reduced the density of the remaining fuel to below sustainable levels of combustion is correct.
Exactly. Jet A is actually hard to ignite. Usually the pressurization from impact, large amounts of electrical energy from broken wiring, or the pouring of vast amounts of fuel through the engine(s) could cause the fire. Smacking into a dirt field at a relatively slow velocity would probably just break the tanks open and dump it all over the place. As said before, the dust/dirt may have acted as a fire extinguishing agent as well. For combustion to occur, the fuel and air mixture needs to be correct and for Jet A and the temperature needs to be above ~ 400°F to spontaneously ignite. The fuel to air ratio is such that if the ratio is below 0.0022 lb/ft^3 in sea level air, is such that no ignition will occur. Too much of either will stop the process, hence the debunking of the silly notion that cell phones cause fires at gas stations.
TravelAVNut From Netherlands, joined May 2010, 1684 posts, RR: 7
Reply 4, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 68294 times:
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 2):
Quoting TravelAVNut (Reply 224):
Pardon my ignorance, but where would one find an old and very poorly maintained old A330?
Does my flag give a hint?
Haha thanks! I should´ve known, long time leecher and reader of your contributions
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 2):
Quoting LY777 (Reply 221):
Theses crashes were due to human errors
To which this one could be another one... but on the 330 instead.
But that would be logical, and logic doesn´t work for everyone
With the information available at this point sounds possible... but is hard to believe the aircraft goes down so close to the airport...although the easier way to screw up a go around is a stall condition, looks so close to the airport...
I wonder if this A330 has the same engine type of the CX that suffered a hard landing recently with the engines stuck ? Anybody knows ?
AutothrustBlue From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 103 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 68056 times:
Quoting LY777 (Reply 203): I have the same feeling, but only for the A330/A340 family (I think there are no problems with the A32Xs now). Anyway, I always avoid the A330/A340s
Sounds like a conclusive statement for an accident that just occurred. Do you know something that we don't that would lead to such a statement?
Gonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1997 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 67710 times:
Quoting trigged (Reply 3): Smacking into a dirt field at a relatively slow velocity would probably just break the tanks open and dump it all over the place.
Unless there was an explosion before impact, the debris field suggest a high energy impact to me, so I doubt this could be at a "relatively slow velocity". Maybe they had slow forward speed or slow vertical speed, but not both at the same time.
mandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6991 posts, RR: 78
Reply 12, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 67386 times:
Quoting A342 (Reply 7): Poorly maintained maybe, but old? Or am I missing anything?
Well, not really old, but they're MSN 200 - 350 and they're A330-200s...
Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 5): I wonder if this A330 has the same engine type of the CX that suffered a hard landing recently with the engines stuck ?
CX A330s are RR powered... Afriqiyah's 330s are not.
Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 5): although the easier way to screw up a go around is a stall condition, looks so close to the airport...
Well, under normal mode, you can't stall the damn plane... well, you can crash it though...
Or not go to TOGA and pull the plane up... it won't stall, but it'll just follow the path just nearing stall... ie: a very badly botched G/A turned to a CFIT on relatively flat ground (silly as it sounds, but these "stupid" cases have happened in the training sims... with guys transitioning to the Bus and cannot be bothered to read the FCOMs).
Quoting AutothrustBlue (Reply 6): Maybe by leaving the A/P in OP DES and not monitoring or not pushing the thrust levers into TOGA?
OP DES? Were they approaching 09 or 27?
If they were on 27, OP DES wouldn't make them end up where they were (near 09) unless they were waaay too high and someone needed to go to the toilet very quickly (unlikely if the assumptions of 27 appr and ended up in 09 are true).
If they were on 09... they were so far off the centerline for where they were that OP DES wouldn't be the factor causing the crash... if the plane fell short say 3-5km prior to the runway from a hot and high descent, then, we can talk OP DES... otherwise, unlikely.
They mystery remains, how did they end up off centerline... If it was a botched go-around, how the heck did it end up where it was... shove the throttles to TOGA and pull on the stick without retracting landing gear or the flaps to go-around flaps (ie: a stupid G/A) wouldn't put the plane where it was thanks to envelope protection... unless there's a problem with the plane we have not heard about...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
Longhauler From Canada, joined Mar 2004, 5255 posts, RR: 43
Reply 13, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 66944 times:
Just a thought.
Several reports indicate they were landing "from the east", if that were the case, then they were landing west. In other words, ILS 27.
If a missed approach were performed, and some problem occurred during the missed approach, then they might well end where they did, on the other end of the runway ... the threshold of 09. A stall, or an engine failure would cause the low speed, low energy type pattern the wreckage appears to indicate.
A lightly loaded A330, with go-around thrust can be a bit of a bear to handle!
Never gonna grow up, never gonna slow down .... Barefoot Blue Jean Night
Aeolus From Mexico, joined Aug 2007, 374 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 66926 times:
Would it have something to do with TK1951? ...might be something involved with autothrottle... stall because of the lack of speed and lift, and crash... just my thoughts, now that I read the AMS crash report.
Anymore news on survivors? I'm trying to catch up. I just saw the Dutch boy survived. Hope there are more. R.I.P. to those who perished.
trigged From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 543 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 66811 times:
Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 10): Maybe they had slow forward speed or slow vertical speed, but not both at the same time.
Yes, I was assuming a slow vertical velocity component. High x axis velocity component with low z axis component would cause the aircraft to shear apart as opposed to a very high g loading from a high vertical (z axis) component. Hit a cheese grater normal to the surface plane, then hit it at parallel to the surface plane, I think you have the same effect as what happened to the aircraft here. Look at the tail section, it is torn apart quite heavily on the bottom surface heading upwards.
Gonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1997 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 66699 times:
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 12): CX A330s are RR powered... Afriqiyah's 330s are not
Thank you. Although now I'm thinking a little more about the subject, and maybe the engines being stuck in the CX jet has nothing to do with the engine type ? Could be this problem come from the cockpit's hardware or software and be a factor in the Afriqiyah crash ?
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 12): unless there's a problem with the plane we have not heard about...
If ( IF ) my previous questions in this post have a YES for an answer, what do you think about a Go Around well performed by the crew but when they hit TO/GA button the engines remained stuck at a low power ratio ?
nnomad From Portugal, joined Feb 2009, 32 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 66402 times:
Quoting Longhauler (Reply 13): If a missed approach were performed, and some problem occurred during the missed approach, then they might well end where they did, on the other end of the runway ... the threshold of 09. A stall, or an engine failure would cause the low speed, low energy type pattern the wreckage appears to indicate.
True... and makes perfect sense if you ignore the fact that the intact tail points to the opposite direction............
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 19, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 66315 times:
Quoting Longhauler (Reply 13): If a missed approach were performed, and some problem occurred during the missed approach, then they might well end where they did, on the other end of the runway ...
That is my assumption also. There is no reason for the aircraft to be that far south if landing on Rwy 09. But Rwy 27 and a problem on go-around.
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 12): under normal mode, you can't stall the damn plane... well, you can crash it though...
Or not go to TOGA and pull the plane up... it won't stall, but it'll just follow the path just nearing stall... ie: a very badly botched G/A turned to a CFIT on relatively flat ground
Possibly, missing steps in the TOGA procedure?
I don't thing the destruction shows a stall and crash from low altitude. But a powered CFIT would more likely give the amount of damage.
Quoting trigged (Reply 3): I think your assessment that the crash impact reduced the density of the remaining fuel to below sustainable levels of combustion is correct.
Exactly. Jet A is actually hard to ignite.
I see what looks like small amounts of charring in some of the photos. Possibly a few small fires, but the fuel spread out to much to sustain a large fire. Also the reports of a burned vehicle indicate there was some fire. Just not a huge fireball and sustained burn.
Aesma From Reunion, joined Nov 2009, 7112 posts, RR: 12
Reply 20, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 66243 times:
Quoting Longhauler (Reply 13): If a missed approach were performed, and some problem occurred during the missed approach, then they might well end where they did, on the other end of the runway ... the threshold of 09. A stall, or an engine failure would cause the low speed, low energy type pattern the wreckage appears to indicate.
Low energy pattern, are we seeing the same footage ?
Quoting Aeolus (Reply 14): Would it have something to do with TK1951? ...might be something involved with autothrottle... stall because of the lack of speed and lift, and crash... just my thoughts, now that I read the AMS crash report.
I don't think a FBW airbus can stall like that. If it's a CFIT, it's above stall speed.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 21, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 66132 times:
Quoting nnomad (Reply 18): True... and makes perfect sense if you ignore the fact that the intact tail points to the opposite direction............
The tail appears to have broken off and somersaulted - so the final angle where it came to rest isn't indicative of the aircraft course.
What we really need though is an aerial photo showing the debris path and impact points.
Everything is just educated guesswork until we see those images, or a reliable official report.
nnomad From Portugal, joined Feb 2009, 32 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 65958 times:
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 21): The tail appears to have broken off and somersaulted - so the final angle where it came to rest isn't indicative of the aircraft course.
I dont agree..
again..if you look close the elevators are intact with the rudder....they look like they impacted and remained exactly on that spot...no spinning or tail flying around..
CityhopperNL From Netherlands, joined Feb 2009, 74 posts, RR: 0
Reply 26, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 66757 times:
Quoting nnomad (Reply 18): Quoting Longhauler (Reply 13):
If a missed approach were performed, and some problem occurred during the missed approach, then they might well end where they did, on the other end of the runway ... the threshold of 09. A stall, or an engine failure would cause the low speed, low energy type pattern the wreckage appears to indicate.
True... and makes perfect sense if you ignore the fact that the intact tail points to the opposite direction............
it makes even more sense if you see that the tail is pointing west as well, i will try to post an analysis of this later on, but to me it looks like the crash site is north of the double-dome mosque, and the tail is pointing to the west
oly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6869 posts, RR: 11
Reply 27, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 69121 times:
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 21): What we really need though is an aerial photo
At the end of the video here you can see what looks like a LN CRJ900 departing on 27 (LN102-> LHR maybe).... perhaps there'll be some cameras looking out of windows.
PGNCS From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 2860 posts, RR: 49
Reply 28, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 68774 times:
How about this: nobody knows what happened yet, least of all anyone who is posting on this site. Let's let the professionals have a crack at this first. They have way more knowledge, any expertise they need on call, and the actual aircraft to examine. Anything that comes before that is uninformed speculation.
nnomad From Portugal, joined Feb 2009, 32 posts, RR: 0
Reply 29, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 68741 times:
Quoting Aesma (Reply 25): Sure but this not being a test flight, the normal law would then be caused by a serious failure, so the stall would only be part of the story.
In the event of a go-around the transition from flight mode occurs at 50' RA (same applies to landings) ...and you can stall a bus in Alternate Law...
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 30, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 68988 times:
Quoting nnomad (Reply 24): ..if you look close the elevators are intact with the rudder....they look like they impacted and remained exactly on that spot...
?? - No marks of dragging or decelleration. That implies the tail was not connected to the rest of the aircraft when it landed there. I could be wrong, but....
Also, a question - where do you see photos which indicate the orientation of the tail relative to the airport? So far as I can tell, we do not have an official location of the wreckage yet - just the very good guess work on the first thread.
babybus From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 31, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 68712 times:
This is terrible news. Telling from the photos the plane was either just in or just out of the airport perimetre fence as can be seen by the sentry box.
I wonder at what height the autopilot switches itself off, if it does at all, before landing?
einsteinboricua From Puerto Rico, joined Apr 2010, 3439 posts, RR: 8
Reply 33, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 68785 times:
Poor kid...it's even worse if his parents were on the flight. Being orphaned at 8.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
A340ANDRE From South Africa, joined Nov 2008, 25 posts, RR: 0
Reply 34, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 68810 times:
My wife and I departed from JNB on SA260 to FRA last night. We departed from Gate 11 and after push back we were standing still for about 10 minutes.
We were sitting on 7A and C in the SA A346 and had a clear view on the left of the Air Afriqiyah A332 that were just parked at Gate 4 or 5 after the departure LH573 to FRA.
I remembered thinking by myself that the livery and colorful tail look realy good on this A330 - not to know that 10 hours later there would be nothing left of this beautiful plane. We received the news this morning after our connection to VIE and we were really shocked about this tragedy.
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 35, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 68272 times:
At the end of the video here you can see what looks like a LN CRJ900 departing on 27 (LN102-> LHR maybe).... perhaps there'll be some cameras looking out of windows.
Fantastic, this is evidence that the crash site is indeed not short of the active runway, but on the wrong side of it, it clearly shows the Bombardier at a few 100 ft altitude and climbing.
oly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6869 posts, RR: 11
Reply 37, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 68097 times:
According to Dutch sources the pilot radio-ed ahead to have ambulances ready at the airport. A passenger also "twittered" from the plane that he saw something wrong with one of the wings.
What could have been wrong that would have been obvious or noticeable to a passenger? Could you tweet from a plane landing in Libya anyway???
tom355uk From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2007, 336 posts, RR: 3
Reply 38, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 67972 times:
Quoting CityhopperNL (Reply 37): Fantastic, this is evidence that the crash site is indeed not short of the active runway, but on the wrong side of it, it clearly shows the Bombardier at a few 100 ft altitude and climbing.
The active runway can change several times a day depending on the prevalent wind conditions at the time.
I have known the active runway at my local airport (BHX) change 2-3 times in one hour.
CityhopperNL From Netherlands, joined Feb 2009, 74 posts, RR: 0
Reply 39, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 67521 times:
Quoting tom355uk (Reply 39): The active runway can change several times a day depending on the prevalent wind conditions at the time.
correct, but wind conditions have not changed an awful lot today according to several sources, but you are right, it is not strictly proof, but definitely a strong sign
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 40, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 67420 times:
Quoting tom355uk (Reply 39): The active runway can change several times a day depending on the prevalent wind conditions at the time.
True, but the weather reports show the winds have been steady from the west all day long.
And Lybia doesn't have the NIMBY noise restrictions of the UK about changing runway usage despite weather conditions.
mandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6991 posts, RR: 78
Reply 41, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 67762 times:
Quoting Aeolus (Reply 14): Would it have something to do with TK1951? ...might be something involved with autothrottle... stall because of the lack of speed and lift, and crash... just my thoughts, now that I read the AMS crash report.
The A330 has a different autothrust systems architecture from the 737NG.
Quoting Longhauler (Reply 13): If a missed approach were performed, and some problem occurred during the missed approach, then they might well end where they did, on the other end of the runway ... the threshold of 09. A stall, or an engine failure would cause the low speed, low energy type pattern the wreckage appears to indicate.
How about spatial disorientation during the go-around (SpatDis seems to be the "trend" nowadays unfortunately).
And that leads to...
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 19): Possibly, missing steps in the TOGA procedure?
I don't thing the destruction shows a stall and crash from low altitude. But a powered CFIT would more likely give the amount of damage.
Not putting the thrust levers into TOGA, and the aircraft would not enter Go Around mode. When one does not need go-around thrust for a go-around, put the levers into TOGA until you get TOGA on the FMA, then move them back to CL for Autothrust.
Now you can imagine what can go-on in a go-around with no TOGA... even if A/T is selected, you'd go up, but not as fast/powerful as you want... One can disengage the autothrust and power manually... but then, your pitch and lateral guidance is zilch...
You can also press the A/T disconnect button for 15 secs (finger freeze panic) in a poor practice scenario, and your alpha prot function (and autothrust) goes to sleep and can only come back alive once you've reset the FMGC on the ground...
Quoting nnomad (Reply 29): In the event of a go-around the transition from flight mode occurs at 50' RA
High AoA protection still active during the flare mode... until you enter ground mode.
Quoting nnomad (Reply 29): and you can stall a bus in Alternate Law...
Depends which Alternate law it is on the 330... ALTN 2, definitely... ALTN 1? Depends.
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 30): No marks of dragging or decelleration. That implies the tail was not connected to the rest of the aircraft when it landed there. I could be wrong, but....
That's what I think too... the missing top part of the rudder is a hint to this...
Mandala499
[Edited 2010-05-12 11:09:03 by srbmod]
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
LASoctoberB6 From Japan, joined Nov 2006, 2380 posts, RR: 1
Reply 42, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 67469 times:
Quoting A340ANDRE (Reply 35): remembered thinking by myself that the livery and colorful tail look realy good on this A330 - not to know that 10 hours later there would be nothing left of this beautiful plane. We received the news this morning after our connection to VIE and we were really shocked about this tragedy.
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 43, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 67482 times:
Quoting oly720man (Reply 38): Could you tweet from a plane landing in Libya anyway???
I don't know, but all it takes is a fairly good cell phone network near the airport and someone willing to try it close to landing. It is not technologically difficult if the right infrastructure is in place.
vietcolin From Vietnam, joined Sep 2005, 40 posts, RR: 0
Reply 44, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 67489 times:
In my view, the aircraft is almost new its just 7 months old. I do not think there's technical issue as JNB confirm departure status was ok
Second, other hypothesis was landing direct into the sun plus other conditions which give pilot blind view...Most of transcontinent arrival are arriving between 5 to 7 AM and pilot get familliar to such conditions.
Am I wrong if I suppose that South Africa is on the target of terrorist? World cup 2010 is comming and it's unlikely JNB is out of safety concern.
What a sad day...to the world of aviation and to the Dutch who lost their relative. RIP...
YULWinterSkies From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2187 posts, RR: 5
Reply 45, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 67422 times:
From previous thread, reply 130 from FlySSC:
'Afriqiyah has organised TIP as a HUB and offers several connections beween Europe and Africa (mostly West Africa).
They aim to attract low budget customers and compete with the Major European players on this market (AF-KL / LH-LX-SN) who offer more frequencies, nonstop flights but also must more exoensive fares.'
By reading these lines, i can't not think about the terrible Yemenia crash last year.
I have a bad feeling that Afriqyiah will soon be under close investigation by the EU, and hopefully this will be independent from any political considerations. It's a government-run airline, isn't it?
Quoting PGNCS (Reply 28): How about this: nobody knows what happened yet, least of all anyone who is posting on this site. Let's let the professionals have a crack at this first. They have way more knowledge, any expertise they need on call, and the actual aircraft to examine. Anything that comes before that is uninformed speculation.
Absolutely agreed, yet, trust me that Afriqyiah's reputation will suffer from this, with or without valid reasons.
SeeTheWorld From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1326 posts, RR: 4
Reply 46, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 67322 times:
Quoting PGNCS (Reply 28): How about this: nobody knows what happened yet, least of all anyone who is posting on this site. Let's let the professionals have a crack at this first. They have way more knowledge, any expertise they need on call, and the actual aircraft to examine. Anything that comes before that is uninformed speculation.
How about comments like this stop, which we see every single time we're all having a discussion of possible reasons why a plane crashed. I find these discussions quite informative.
Braniff722 From United States of America, joined Nov 2008, 152 posts, RR: 1
Reply 47, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 67436 times:
Like many of you, I find that the utter destruction of this aircraft is mind boggling. I looks like the plane stalled from 2,000 feet and just nosed into the ground, although I know this isn't the case.
Anyways, I hope all the families that lost love ones find peace and strenght to deal with this situation. I wish God Speed on recovery for the little boy who was lucky enough to survive.
Over time tho, I think a key piece of evidence of this crash is the little boy. What does he remember? What were the conditions like prior to the plane crash. He will be the story for investigators no doubt. My only hope is that if or when that time comes, they don't bombard him with difficult questions or treat him harshly to find answers. Sometimes, adults push way to hard on children to find out answers. I would hope they respect his wishes to talk, or not to talk about the crash. The black box will answer everything for us, but to have a survivor of such a horrific crash is almost unheard of.
Bless him for his quick recovery and bless the souls lost.
allegro From United States of America, joined Mar 2009, 238 posts, RR: 1
Reply 48, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 66912 times:
Terrible NEWS! So very sad, for everyone involved ... especially the Dutch who lost 60 people. Condolences to all.
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 12): They mystery remains, how did they end up off centerline... If it was a botched go-around, how the heck did it end up where it was... shove the throttles to TOGA and pull on the stick without retracting landing gear or the flaps to go-around flaps (ie: a stupid G/A) wouldn't put the plane where it was thanks to envelope protection... unless there's a problem with the plane we have not heard about...
Thanks for you VERY informative posts. Your insight is very helpful and calming to read.
tom355uk From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2007, 336 posts, RR: 3
Reply 49, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 67333 times:
Quoting CityhopperNL (Reply 40): correct, but wind conditions have not changed an awful lot today
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 41): True, but the weather reports show the winds have been steady from the west all day long
I'm not disagreeing, but I am a little unsure that such an advanced aircraft as the A330, even flown pretty incompetently would crash beyond the end of the runway following a go-around. Lets say a go around is conducted from 200', that is about 1000m from the 27 threshold right? - the runway at HLLT is 3600m long, thats 4600m, the impact site appears to be 1000m past the 09 threshold, so that is 5600m (real approx figures).
That is approximately 1 minutes flying time, even if at higher than normal approach speeds and taking a go around into account.
Seems a bit far fetched to me, but hey, nobody knows for sure yet.
EDIT: Unless you press and hold the A/T disconnect button in a panic - thanks Mandala
Aesma From Reunion, joined Nov 2009, 7112 posts, RR: 12
Reply 50, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 66698 times:
If the plane impacted flat and wheels down, the tail may have separated immediately, a fraction of a second before the fuselage would disintegrate (maybe the boy was in the tail and saved by this). The missing part of the rudder being only a consequence of the deceleration (we know the tail is a tough part, the rudder joint being the "weakest spot" ).
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
CityhopperNL From Netherlands, joined Feb 2009, 74 posts, RR: 0
Reply 51, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 66369 times:
Quoting tom355uk (Reply 50): Lets say a go around is conducted from 200', that is about 1000m from the 27 threshold right? - the runway at HLLT is 3600m long, thats 4600m, the impact site appears to be 1000m past the 09 threshold, so that is 5600m (real approx figures).
yes you are absolutely right, i have thought about this, but it might even explain why the plane is 200m off the centreline, which would be pretty much impossible on a normal approach with an altitude of only 200 ft at that point. If the plane performed a go around, but problems kicked in at say 500 ft, it might have taken a minute to crash land and also drift 200 meters away from the runway centreline.
Aesma From Reunion, joined Nov 2009, 7112 posts, RR: 12
Reply 53, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 65793 times:
It seems there was a French woman on-board, attracted by the low fare. I can understand this, seeing that they seem to be very low, too low to be true ?
Personally whatever the reputation of the airline I would have trouble hopping on a Libyan airliner, considering the Libyan ruler has no problem blowing them up (including a French one).
[Edited 2010-05-12 09:43:16]
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
spacecadet From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3717 posts, RR: 12
Reply 54, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 64584 times:
Quoting PGNCS (Reply 28): Anything that comes before that is uninformed speculation.
Yes, it's a public forum - this is to be expected. You're free to not participate.
Quoting Braniff722 (Reply 48): Over time tho, I think a key piece of evidence of this crash is the little boy. What does he remember? What were the conditions like prior to the plane crash.
I would honestly doubt that an eight year old is going to have that much insight. I think all they're really likely to get from him is whether people knew there was a problem beforehand - important, but I think they'd pretty easily find that out other ways without relying on him.
Quoting oly720man (Reply 38): What could have been wrong that would have been obvious or noticeable to a passenger? Could you tweet from a plane landing in Libya anyway???
I don't see why you couldn't tweet... but the thing is, twitter is public (for the most part). I would think we'd have this tweet by now. Even if this passenger protected his tweets, all of his twitter followers would have seen it. So while I could be wrong, I am inclined to believe this didn't happen simply because it's not like it's possible to hide a tweet like that.
There are any number of things a passenger could notice, but I don't think there's enough evidence yet to say what this passenger might have, if this passenger actually exists.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
Airportugal310 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3738 posts, RR: 2
Reply 55, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 64591 times:
Quoting Aesma (Reply 54): It seems there was a French woman on-board, attracted by the low fare. I can understand this, seeing that they seem to be very low, too low to be true ?
Well, just seeing that there were only 104? people onboard that aircraft on a long-haul flight might mean that they were selling em cheap just to get it filled.
Braniff722 From United States of America, joined Nov 2008, 152 posts, RR: 1
Reply 56, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 63679 times:
Quoting Spacecadet (Reply 54): I would honestly doubt that an eight year old is going to have that much insight. I think all they're really likely to get from him is whether people knew there was a problem beforehand - important, but I think they'd pretty easily find that out other ways without relying on him.
You must not have kids.
You're not giving this kid much credit. He might know or tell more than you think. I have a 9 year old that has a unique way of explaining things quiet well on subjects he learns on his own.
Whether this child talks to investigators or not, it doesn't really matter, but he was there and he is old enough to remember what was going on prior to the crash. In fact, I'd bet the bank that this child is a wealth of info for this invesigation. But, like I said, I hope they treat him with respect to either talk to them or not. It's his and whatever family he has left, choice.
TK787 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4498 posts, RR: 12
Reply 57, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 63537 times:
Quoting SeeTheWorld (Reply 47): Quoting PGNCS (Reply 28):
How about this: nobody knows what happened yet, least of all anyone who is posting on this site. Let's let the professionals have a crack at this first. They have way more knowledge, any expertise they need on call, and the actual aircraft to examine. Anything that comes before that is uninformed speculation.
How about comments like this stop, which we see every single time we're all having a discussion of possible reasons why a plane crashed. I find these discussions quite informative.
Just to put that in perspective, when TK 1951 crashed at AMS last year we had discussions all the way to Part 10 immediately after the crash, if I remember correctly over 2000 replies to those threads.
On the other hand, when the official report came out last week, the thread only had 8 replies.
We turn to a.net to deal with tragedies like this right after these crashes.
SeeTheWorld From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1326 posts, RR: 4
Reply 58, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 62891 times:
Quoting TK787 (Reply 58): Just to put that in perspective, when TK 1951 crashed at AMS last year we had discussions all the way to Part 10 immediately after the crash, if I remember correctly over 2000 replies to those threads.
On the other hand, when the official report came out last week, the thread only had 8 replies.
We turn to a.net to deal with tragedies like this right after these crashes.
Your quote of me suggests that I made the original comment. I did not ... I made the following comment in response:
"How about comments like this stop, which we see every single time we're all having a discussion of possible reasons why a plane crashed. I find these discussions quite informative."
airtechy From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 571 posts, RR: 0
Reply 59, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 62382 times:
If you've ever been involved in a terrible car/plane/motorcycle crash you will be lucky to remember anything...even if you were unhurt. The brain has a way of forgetting anything that occurred around the accident time. Add in the fact the kid is seven years old.....forget it.
zeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9284 posts, RR: 76
Reply 60, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 61878 times:
Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 17): Although now I'm thinking a little more about the subject, and maybe the engines being stuck in the CX jet has nothing to do with the engine type ? Could be this problem come from the cockpit's hardware or software and be a factor in the Afriqiyah crash ?
Without drawing a conclusion out of turn from the HK CAD investigators, the Indonesian Ministry of Transport is currently conducting a parallel investigation into the fuel quality, storage, and delivery at SUB.
If one were to think logically about the situation, not many variables are shared between the engines that changed sometime after landing in SUB.
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 12):
They mystery remains, how did they end up off centerline....
Non-precision approaches are not runway aligned like an ILS, hence the higher MDAs (e.g. 600' vs 200').
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
A380Heavy From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 272 posts, RR: 0
Reply 61, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 61836 times:
Two things - Firstly, it seems to be an incredibly large debris field for a crash which occured from a low altitude and, one would assume, at a relatively low speed given the particular phase of flight. Secondly, there seems to be (in the photos) a large amount of debris on the ground behind the tail section - how does that occur? I would have thought that the debris would be forward of the tail section.
AutothrustBlue From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 103 posts, RR: 0
Reply 62, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 60941 times:
Quoting airtechy (Reply 60): Add in the fact the kid is seven years old.....forget it.
If it makes any difference, the kid is reportedly 10 yrs old.
Quoting mandala499 (Reply 12): If they were on 09... they were so far off the centerline for where they were that OP DES wouldn't be the factor causing the crash... if the plane fell short say 3-5km prior to the runway from a hot and high descent, then, we can talk OP DES... otherwise, unlikely.
If they were approaching 09, then a mixture of glare from the morning sun and possible haze/fog could have led to disorientation.
RB211TriStar From United States of America, joined May 2007, 185 posts, RR: 0
Reply 63, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 60669 times:
Apologies if this has been posted/stated already. I tried to read every post.
From foxnews.com
"One passenger wrote on Twitter on approach to the airport that something was wrong with the plane, referring to a "left wing inlet," Dutch media reported. The pilot of the plane appeared to know he was in trouble upon approach, calling ahead to Tripoli to request ambulances be at the ready."
Gonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1997 posts, RR: 2
Reply 64, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 60533 times:
Quoting airtechy (Reply 60): If you've ever been involved in a terrible car/plane/motorcycle crash you will be lucky to remember anything...even if you were unhurt. The brain has a way of forgetting anything that occurred around the accident time. Add in the fact the kid is seven years old.....forget it.
I fully agree. Is very common that even the unhurt passengers of car crashes don't remember nothing of the accident ( and, the average car passenger, by the way, have a much better understanding of how the things work compared to a 8 Y.O. kid on board of a sophisticated jet ).
Besides, I just see the TV report showing the poor kid in the intensive care unit, with his head cover in bandages, probably he suffered head trauma, the legs broken.... I seriously doubt this poor child wants to remember anything regarding this crash.
No doubt, our only hope to find answers in this crash are the black boxes.
Braniff722 From United States of America, joined Nov 2008, 152 posts, RR: 1
Reply 65, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 60369 times:
Quoting airtechy (Reply 60): If you've ever been involved in a terrible car/plane/motorcycle crash you will be lucky to remember anything...even if you were unhurt. The brain has a way of forgetting anything that occurred around the accident time. Add in the fact the kid is seven years old.....forget it.
Airtech, that doesn't apply to everyone involved in a crash, traumatic or not. It's a complete and total 50/50 crap shoot on who remembers what, when, where and why. Being a flight paramedic, I've followed up on 100's, if not 1,000's of patients who I have flown over my 17 years in this business. It is our policy to follow up with some of our most critical patients to see their progress and inform them of what we did for them...etc. Some people who were actually dead that we revived thru very aggressive measures, have told me stories of remembering everything and we've had those who told us that they, "Don't" remember anything, not even the flight into the hospital, although they were conscious. And as far as the brain, unless you have a, "Brain Injury" of sometype, the brain just doesn't shut down because of an accident. Your memory may be messed up, but the brain continues to process info in the best way it can.
And which is it? Is the kid 7, 8 or 10? I've heard all 3 mentioned.
There does seem to be a collection of vehicles/debris in the middle distance on the right hand side.
I wonder if this is where a first impact point was. The line of the debris does seem to be parallel to the runway and there is increasing debris away from this point, as would happen with the aircraft breaking up.
litz From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1811 posts, RR: 0
Reply 67, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 60270 times:
Note to all the Airbus bashers ...
There is a tailfin off that airplane that is still quite firmly attached to its piece of fuselage ...
(wasn't AF447's tailfin also still attached to some of its structure, too?)
Rest of it has pretty much disintegrated ... a few pieces of skin/wing panel, a few seats, but most of the rest is just ... gone.
That's not a low energy "let's stall it over the ground" type of crash. There was a recent 737 stall-then-crash that showed you what happens when you do that.
Airport From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 68, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 60164 times:
Quoting RB211TriStar (Reply 65): "One passenger wrote on Twitter on approach to the airport that something was wrong with the plane, referring to a "left wing inlet," Dutch media reported. The pilot of the plane appeared to know he was in trouble upon approach, calling ahead to Tripoli to request ambulances be at the ready."
Huh. Left wing inlet -- could he be referring to the winglet?
I know the aircraft stated above is 5A-ONF, but could it be the photographer got it wrong and that that is actually 5A-ONG. I can't possibly imagine what a winglet would have to do with anything, but something to consider...
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 69, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 59895 times:
Quoting A380Heavy (Reply 63): Secondly, there seems to be (in the photos) a large amount of debris on the ground behind the tail section - how does that occur?
As the largest, heaviest piece of debris, the tail structure tumbled forward. We have no confirmed idea if the tail is oriended in the direction of the crash or pointing in a completely different direction.
That is speculation of course, but it happens often. The tail in the Polish Tu-154 crash recently was in the middle of the debris field. There have been many others with similar results.
AirCalSNA From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 372 posts, RR: 0
Reply 70, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 59686 times:
You're not giving this kid much credit. He might know or tell more than you think. I have a 9 year old that has a unique way of explaining things quiet well on subjects he learns on his own.
Whether this child talks to investigators or not, it doesn't really matter, but he was there and he is old enough to remember what was going on prior to the crash. In fact, I'd bet the bank that this child is a wealth of info for this invesigation. But, like I said, I hope they treat him with respect to either talk to them or not. It's his and whatever family he has left, choice.
I have a kid, although well past 8 years old at this point. I can't imagine that any child that age would be able to provide any useful information. What exactly do you think he would be able to say that is not already obvious: the plane was flying and then it hit the ground?
ramzi From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 535 posts, RR: 0
Reply 71, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 58816 times:
Quoting AutothrustBlue (Reply 6): Sounds like a conclusive statement for an accident that just occurred. Do you know something that we don't that would lead to such a statement?
Also quite ignorant. One may as well avoid all aircraft.
May the victims rest in peace.
There will come a time when you believe everything is finished - that will be the beginning.
KL1291 From Netherlands, joined Jul 2007, 86 posts, RR: 0
Reply 72, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 58278 times:
Quoting AirCalSNA (Reply 70): I have a kid, although well past 8 years old at this point. I can't imagine that any child that age would be able to provide any useful information. What exactly do you think he would be able to say that is not already obvious: the plane was flying and then it hit the ground?
In respect to your quote and your kid, but maybe this kid remembers immediately after breathrecovery, that the left wing was gone partly at winglet-end. Who knows. Or the Airbus crashed in midair with a MIG from the Libyan AF and the boy saw that happen from his window seat. It happened in Libya on a tragic day, thats for sure.
KL1291
spacecadet From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3717 posts, RR: 12
Reply 73, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 58056 times:
You're not giving this kid much credit. He might know or tell more than you think.
No, I don't have kids, but I have an even better perspective on this than you'd think: I was involved in an emergency landing when I was 8 and flying alone. I remember it like it was yesterday, including all of the details. But would any of those details have mattered to investigators? No. What could I tell them? I saw flames from the engine, some people screamed, and then I cried all the way back to the airport. How is that going to help them? Out of that, all that would matter to them would be the flames from the engine, and it's not as if I'd have been the only way they could determine that that had happened. I wouldn't have been the most reliable source either.
The story this kid is going to tell might be interesting, and in the absence of any other sources it might help the investigators, but they have a ton of physical evidence there, including the CVR/FDR. There's not going to be any perspective he's going to bring that's going to be of much assistance here.
Anyway, many times survivor accounts are not that interesting, even as folklore. Often it'll go something like "there was a bang, then a lot of confusion, and then stuff started flying all over the place, and the next thing I knew I woke up in the hospital." Or even more common it seems, "we were flying along fine, and I must have blacked out because the next thing I knew I was standing in a field." The few survivor accounts that are truly riveting are usually from people who have a vested interest and/or are trained in operations, like Yumi Ochiai's account of JAL 123. But that's rare.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
huxrules From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 134 posts, RR: 0
Reply 74, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 57386 times:
I just cant believe how shredded the plane looks. Looks like it was almost at cruising speed. Are there any pictures of fuselage or just pieces? Amazing.
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 75, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 57019 times:
Quite a few of the photos show parts of the fuselage. The largest I see looks to be about 10 ft x 10 ft.
cloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2454 posts, RR: 10
Reply 76, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 57069 times:
How does one crash an aircraft so "comprehensively"? Apart the tail, the rest of the aeroplane is in pieces so small it looks as if it has been through a shredder. The aeroplane's crashworthiness maybe something that needs to be looked at.
AutothrustBlue From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 103 posts, RR: 0
Reply 77, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 56975 times:
Looks like my last post got chopped up, so I'll post again
Quoting babybus (Reply 31): I wonder at what height the autopilot switches itself off, if it does at all, before landing?
AP will disengage when the aircraft is below MDA - 50 feet (MDH - 50) or below 400 ft AGL, with APPR model selected and a non-ILS approach selected.
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 78, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 56954 times:
Quoting cloudyapple (Reply 77): How does one crash an aircraft so "comprehensively"?
High energy impact. A great many aircraft crashes show this much damage.
The JAL aircraft which lost the tail and hit the mountain was moving relatively slowly and in a flat enough attitude to shed a lot of energy, first when it clipped the top of one ridge, then when it it basically belly first on the next rights. But it was still shredded like this one.
spacecadet From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3717 posts, RR: 12
Reply 79, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 56960 times:
Quoting cloudyapple (Reply 77): How does one crash an aircraft so "comprehensively"? Apart the tail, the rest of the aeroplane is in pieces so small it looks as if it has been through a shredder. The aeroplane's crashworthiness maybe something that needs to be looked at.
This is what was left of USAir flight 427. It was on final approach when it nosed into the ground. When you're talking about taking tons of metal with a lot of air inside and smashing it into the ground at 300mph, this is what happens. And that speed can be built up very quickly from not a great height.
There's actually more left recognizable in this accident. But I think it's probable that this airplane also nosed over into the ground - it probably didn't just settle in like it was landing. We'll see.
I highly doubt there's anything about the airplane's crashworthiness to look at.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
AutothrustBlue From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 103 posts, RR: 0
Reply 80, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 56692 times:
Fair use:
A Libyan security official told news agency AFP, "It exploded on landing and totally disintegrated."
Additionally, Libyan Transport Minister Mohammed Ali Zidan has ruled out terrorism as a cause.
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 81, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 55845 times:
Quoting AutothrustBlue (Reply 82): So it is reported the plane exploded on impact; what about the reports of no smoke, or fire in the vicinity of the crash?
So far it appears that only one person reported the plane 'exploded on impact'. That was in some of the first reports and has disappeared from most news reports since.
Any aircraft hitting the ground as hard as this one hit is going to throw up a huge cloud of dust and sand. While there was no general fire, there was what appears to be a burned out vehicle recovered from the site. Some of the debris also shows possible smoke/ burn damage.
That would be completely consistent with a crash where the fuel tanks were ripped open and most of the fuel spread out into too low concentrations to maintain a fire.
My view is that the person saw the plane hit. Maybe a few flashes of light/ flame, a huge cloud of dust, and interpreted that as an explosion.
Not having any experience with how violent plane crashes really are, his only frame of reference is a bomb or explosive device.
BalkantoDelta From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 33 posts, RR: 0
Reply 82, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 55754 times:
Hi guys.
Lost of speculation I see ( i.e. Winds, Runway in use, Go around etc etc.) I see some people are already analyzing the crash based on the photos.
I believe the black boxes will clearly show steps of error as in the previous African crashes as of late. I remember we ALL speculated about those as well (Kenya and Ethiopian) We speculated about the the Thunderstorms, the winds, we got TAFS METARS etc etc..... and at the end it was all steps of errors that resulted in tragedies.
It shows us that even these state of the art aircrafts ( 738's and the 332 ) in the "wrong hands" can have catastrophic consequences.
Who knows how it was flown especially on the VOR approach ( If that was used ) I just now that every time we hear VOR approach with some weather, we all go : Oh oh !
I just hope they get to the bottom of it soon ! Not good news for Airbus ! Especially the 330. They need to see what the problem was asap and release the findings so fliers dont start to panic.
AAExecPlat From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 636 posts, RR: 4
Reply 83, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 55282 times:
From what we know at this point, I believe this is likely to be pilot error. Either the pilots made an error on TOGA by not properly executing procedures and accidentally stalled the plane, or they were spatially disoriented and stalled the plane with too much bank/pitch. Less likely IMO is that the plane touched down and cartwheeled like we've seen in the MD-11 accidents in the past (most recently FEDEX MD-11 at NRT). Although less likely, that is still a scenario that seems plausible.
For aircraft failure to be an issue this close to the airport and past the runway on a brand new aircraft seems much less likely to me.
This accident also highlights one more issue in international aviation that many might be giving a pass...this is at least the fourth accident of an African airliner in the not so distant past (KQ 73G / ET738 / Yemenia A300) and I am sure I am missing some events. One has to wonder about the training and qualifications of African pilots. I certainly would not put my family on any African airline anytime soon (SAA excepted). When you put into context how many flight movements African airlines constitute relative to their peers from the US/Europe/Asia, and even South America, and you look at the number of crashes and fatalities, I suspect the African airlines would have much higher accident and fatality rates.
One has to wonder if cockpit environment and chain of command issues might be a cultural factor contributing to the crashes. I am thinking along the lines of what happened at Korean when they had their string of accidents and incidents...they brought in consultants to help them fix cockpit communications and chain of command issues, which turned their safety record around in no time.
SeeTheWorld From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1326 posts, RR: 4
Reply 84, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 55050 times:
Quoting spacecadet (Reply 80): This is what was left of USAir flight 427. It was on final approach when it nosed into the ground. When you're talking about taking tons of metal with a lot of air inside and smashing it into the ground at 300mph, this is what happens. And that speed can be built up very quickly from not a great height.
Actually, US427 was at an altitude of 6,000 feet when it began it's 37 second nosedive ... just to clarify (as opposed to being a few hundred feet off the ground and within range of the runway).
CityhopperNL From Netherlands, joined Feb 2009, 74 posts, RR: 0
Reply 85, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 54988 times:
Quoting Airport (Reply 68): Huh. Left wing inlet -- could he be referring to the winglet?
As far as I know there is this video on an ill-informed Dutch news website that shows another plane of this airline missing one of the winglets, a while back. So nothing spectacular, but you can imagine that something like that is gonna live a life of it's own, so that's where this rumour comes from, it's the same story with every plane crash, news websites that start their own speculation without even having the slightest idea about aviation. Also they start asking questions about 'how unsafe flying is' etc on national television, always the same issues.
Quoting Braniff722 (Reply 65): I wonder if this is where a first impact point was. The line of the debris does seem to be parallel to the runway and there is increasing debris away from this point, as would happen with the aircraft breaking up.
I'm starting to get a little bit annoyed that it's well over 12 hours after the crash and there has been no info at all from Libya, in actual fact we still do not even know whether this plane was coming in from the east or from the west, runway 09 or 27, it's just a total lack of information whic is in my opinion, to say the least, rediculous. Sometimes I just feel we gotta be thankful we live in the United States and/or Europe i think :|
RB211TriStar From United States of America, joined May 2007, 185 posts, RR: 0
Reply 86, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 53638 times:
Quoting AutothrustBlue (Reply 81): Additionally, Libyan Transport Minister Mohammed Ali Zidan has ruled out terrorism as a cause.
Talk about quick speculation. There is no basis for a statement of that magnitude from either direction.
Quoting CityhopperNL (Reply 86): Sometimes I just feel we gotta be thankful we live in the United States and/or Europe i think :|
Never thought I'd hear a non-american say that At least according to your flag and screen name haha
BalkantoDelta From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 33 posts, RR: 0
Reply 87, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 52813 times:
Quoting AAExecPlat (Reply 84): This accident also highlights one more issue in international aviation that many might be giving a pass...this is at least the fourth accident of an African airliner in the not so distant past (KQ 73G / ET738 / Yemenia A300) and I am sure I am missing some events. One has to wonder about the training and qualifications of African pilots. I certainly would not put my family on any African airline anytime soon (SAA excepted). When you put into context how many flight movements African airlines constitute relative to their peers from the US/Europe/Asia, and even South America, and you look at the number of crashes and fatalities, I suspect the African airlines would have much higher accident and fatality rates.
dragon6172 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1204 posts, RR: 0
Reply 88, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 52513 times:
Quoting Airport (Reply 68): Huh. Left wing inlet-- could he be referring to the winglet?
Could be the engine inlet for that matter. The non aviation folk can have lots of names for thinga-ma-jigs and whirly-dos.
seabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5935 posts, RR: 6
Reply 89, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 52429 times:
Quoting AAExecPlat (Reply 84): .this is at least the fourth accident of an African airliner in the not so distant past (KQ 73G / ET738 / Yemenia A300) and I am sure I am missing some events.
I think the Yemenis would be very surprised to learn they are in Africa...
seabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5935 posts, RR: 6
Reply 90, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 52182 times:
Quoting spacecadet (Reply 73): But would any of those details have mattered to investigators? No. What could I tell them? I saw flames from the engine, some people screamed, and then I cried all the way back to the airport. How is that going to help them?
He might remember that they touched down, or not. He might remember that the wing scraped the runway, or not. He might remember that the plane banked at an extreme angle before crashing, or not.
Even basics, confirmed by a live witness, could be enormously important to the investigation.
aaexecplat From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 636 posts, RR: 4
Reply 92, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 51792 times:
So which of the five continents is Yemen located on?
seabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5935 posts, RR: 6
Reply 93, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 51667 times:
Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 93): So which of the five continents is Yemen located on?
Asia.
On your original point, it would be interesting to see accident rates for modernized African carriers vs. carriers in other developing parts of the world. I doubt the Africans would be much worse. They wouldn't match up well to carriers in the developed world, but no one in the developing world would.
Anshuk From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2009, 486 posts, RR: 0
Reply 94, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 51704 times:
Quoting seabosdca (Reply 90): I think the Yemenis would be very surprised to learn they are in Africa...
Very well said.
Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 94): So which of the five continents is Yemen located on?
Yemen is in Asia.
The amount of destruction is pretty disconcerting. Its amazing that the little boy survived. I sincerely hope he was an UM and hasn't lost his parents
I hope we learn the cause of this crash soon..
RIP to all the victims. May your families find peace and the strength to move on from this horrible tragedy..
CityhopperNL From Netherlands, joined Feb 2009, 74 posts, RR: 0
Reply 95, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 51278 times:
Quoting RB211TriStar (Reply 87): Never thought I'd hear a non-american say that At least according to your flag and screen name haha
I'm a 'Netherlander' but spend roughly 1/3 of my year stateside, both countries have their pros and cons but I think what we should be proud of and cherish is the shared conviction that no stone must be left unturned and no information reasonably withheld to the public in situations like this. Which is unfortunately exactly what we see in other countries every now and then. Let's hope the investigation into this crash be quick, thorough and transparent
ATA L1011 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 1393 posts, RR: 6
Reply 96, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 50862 times:
So which of the five continents is Yemen located on?
ATA L1011 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 1393 posts, RR: 6
Reply 97, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 50717 times:
rj777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 1915 posts, RR: 2
Reply 98, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 50617 times:
Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 33): Poor kid...it's even worse if his parents were on the flight. Being orphaned at 8
I was going to say, do we know for sure his parents were on the plane?
frigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1721 posts, RR: 1
Reply 99, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 50721 times:
Quoting severnaya (Reply 92): NOS (dutch media) and CNN are reporting the survivor is an 8 year old dutch boy (with first name Ruben, clearly a boys' name)
Dutch tv also showed footage of the boy in hospital. He was obviously just semi-concious, and his injuries are more severe than originally reported: some open fractures on both legs and head injuries. Poor kid. He's in a strange hospital, strange people around him who can't understand him and he can't understand them, and he probably doesn't even know whether his parents and siblings are alive or not. So tragic.
CityhopperNL From Netherlands, joined Feb 2009, 74 posts, RR: 0
Reply 100, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 51168 times:
Actually Dutch TV NOS just added an eye witness report to the website from a fella named Leo Molenaar, who apparently catched the flight to Brussels that was the connecting flight for a lot of the Dutch pax. According to him departure was 2 hours late which would be 10.30, and they could see debris from the crashed plane at takeoff. So that means runway 27 was still active at 10.30, there's about 4,5 hours in which the wind direction could have changed then, it still sounds unlikely but not impossible that the crashed a/c was going for rwy 09
F9Animal From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 5160 posts, RR: 17
Reply 101, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 50908 times:
Quoting oly720man (Reply 37): According to Dutch sources the pilot radio-ed ahead to have ambulances ready at the airport. A passenger also "twittered" from the plane that he saw something wrong with one of the wings.
What could have been wrong that would have been obvious or noticeable to a passenger? Could you tweet from a plane landing in Libya anyway???
To be honest, I doubt anyone would have the time to really tweet this. I mean, that is really the last thing I would do in any emergency. It sounds like a way to get more press coverage. Did we not hear the same kind of stuff from the Air France crash last year?
B707forever From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 459 posts, RR: 0
Reply 102, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 50646 times:
This can be absolutely anything from a loss of hydraulics to a bird strike at low altitutde to whatever. But we'll know soon enough.
In any case, a terrible terrible tragedy that reminds us all airplanes are very fragile technology that require expert handling. Deepest condolences to all those who mourn.
L410Turbolet From Czech Republic, joined May 2004, 5759 posts, RR: 19
Reply 103, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 49725 times:
Quoting frigatebird (Reply 101): Poor kid. He's in a strange hospital, strange people around him who can't understand him and he can't understand them, and he probably doesn't even know whether his parents and siblings are alive or not. So tragic.
Indeed. I can imagine the standard of health care there is mediocre at best. Any plans to medevac him out of that place since he seems to be in stabilized condition?
Aesma From Reunion, joined Nov 2009, 7112 posts, RR: 12
Reply 104, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 49643 times:
Quoting TK787 (Reply 57): Just to put that in perspective, when TK 1951 crashed at AMS last year we had discussions all the way to Part 10 immediately after the crash, if I remember correctly over 2000 replies to those threads.
On the other hand, when the official report came out last week, the thread only had 8 replies.
We turn to a.net to deal with tragedies like this right after these crashes.
I'm having trouble finding this thread (on the report), can you help ?
Quoting cloudyapple (Reply 76): How does one crash an aircraft so "comprehensively"? Apart the tail, the rest of the aeroplane is in pieces so small it looks as if it has been through a shredder. The aeroplane's crashworthiness maybe something that needs to be looked at.
With the accident in Toronto we know that the A330/340 series is quite crashworthy, when the crash is "survivable", ie not a high velocity/high angle impact.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
AR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 6680 posts, RR: 34
Reply 105, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 49768 times:
Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 10): Unless there was an explosion before impact, the debris field suggest a high energy impact to me, so I doubt this could be at a "relatively slow velocity". Maybe they had slow forward speed or slow vertical speed, but not both at the same time.
Quoting Aeolus (Reply 15): Like AeroUnion A300F in MTY? Possible.
At first, my opinion was that this crash was your typical CFIT. Degree of destruction is irrelevant. I remember the AVIANCA 747 crash at MAD, 1983. The degree of destruction of that 747 was total, even though it was flying at a "low speed" due to it being on finals. But then I saw the pictures on post 66, and it seems pretty similar to the Aero Union A300 crash here in MTY. The final resting place of both wreckages is incompatible to both planes being on the extended runway centerline when they crashed. That and the supposedly existing call from the Afriquiya crew about requesting ambulances, to me, points to something going wrong while the plane was established on short finals. I believe this is not your typical CFIT, in my opinion.
Quoting PGNCS (Reply 28): How about this: nobody knows what happened yet, least of all anyone who is posting on this site. Let's let the professionals have a crack at this first. They have way more knowledge, any expertise they need on call, and the actual aircraft to examine. Anything that comes before that is uninformed speculation.
Public forum. Deal with it.
Quoting SeeTheWorld (Reply 46): How about comments like this stop, which we see every single time we're all having a discussion of possible reasons why a plane crashed. I find these discussions quite informative.
Agree.
Quoting Braniff722 (Reply 47): He will be the story for investigators no doubt.
I´m not sure about that. I´d be surprised if anything useful can come out of this poor boy´s recollections. A trauma like this precludes the brain from remembering anything other than that he was in the plane and then waking up either on the field surrounded by debris, or in a hospital bed. Similar to the little girl that survived the Yemen crash on the Indian Ocean.
richierich From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 4309 posts, RR: 6
Reply 106, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 49001 times:
Quoting spacecadet (Reply 73): No, I don't have kids, but I have an even better perspective on this than you'd think: I was involved in an emergency landing when I was 8 and flying alone. I remember it like it was yesterday, including all of the details. But would any of those details have mattered to investigators? No. What could I tell them? I saw flames from the engine, some people screamed, and then I cried all the way back to the airport.
Holy cow!
Glad you made it through that safely. That's the sort of event that could scar you for life from flying!
Quoting spacecadet (Reply 73): Anyway, many times survivor accounts are not that interesting, even as folklore. Often it'll go something like "there was a bang, then a lot of confusion, and then stuff started flying all over the place, and the next thing I knew I woke up in the hospital." Or even more common it seems, "we were flying along fine, and I must have blacked out because the next thing I knew I was standing in a field." The few survivor accounts that are truly riveting are usually from people who have a vested interest and/or are trained in operations, like Yumi Ochiai's account of JAL 123. But that's rare.
Recognition of traumatic events is a touchy subject - most people either don't remember anything (certainly nothing of importance) or their memories are skewed. It is all part of the brain's normal functions, to purposefully (?) protect against difficult or traumatic events. But through hypnosis and potentially other forms of regression, it is possible to extract some memories that were not present on the surface. It is sort of like recreating a floppy disk that has been shattered and maybe incomplete (yes, I am aging myself here), but it is possible to recover some of the information but it is not an easy process.
In regards to survivor of this awful crash, I am sure people will ask him questions to see what he knows or remembers but I can't imagine it will be anything of great use. Assuming the DVR and CVR were operable, the investigators will have plenty of clues to work with and putting this young boy through the pain of regression would seem quite pointless.
cainanuk From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2002, 551 posts, RR: 0
Reply 107, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 48705 times:
Quoting AAExecPlat (Reply 84): From what we know at this point, I believe this is likely to be pilot error. Either the pilots made an error on TOGA by not properly executing procedures and accidentally stalled the plane, or they were spatially disoriented and stalled the plane with too much bank/pitch. Less likely IMO is that the plane touched down and cartwheeled like we've seen in the MD-11 accidents in the past (most recently FEDEX MD-11 at NRT). Although less likely, that is still a scenario that seems plausible.
For aircraft failure to be an issue this close to the airport and past the runway on a brand new aircraft seems much less likely to me.
This accident also highlights one more issue in international aviation that many might be giving a pass...this is at least the fourth accident of an African airliner in the not so distant past (KQ 73G / ET738 / Yemenia A300) and I am sure I am missing some events. One has to wonder about the training and qualifications of African pilots. I certainly would not put my family on any African airline anytime soon (SAA excepted). When you put into context how many flight movements African airlines constitute relative to their peers from the US/Europe/Asia, and even South America, and you look at the number of crashes and fatalities, I suspect the African airlines would have much higher accident and fatality rates.
One has to wonder if cockpit environment and chain of command issues might be a cultural factor contributing to the crashes. I am thinking along the lines of what happened at Korean when they had their string of accidents and incidents...they brought in consultants to help them fix cockpit communications and chain of command issues, which turned their safety record around in no time.
Wow.
You gleaned all that from a couple hundred posts on an airliner enthusiast website and a few grainy photos? Quick, get your application pack in, the NTSB could not possibly carry on without you.
Seriously, speculation is one thing, but in this one post you have concluded what caused the accident, how it all happened, who was at fault and you have for all intents and purposes damned the entirety of a continents civil aviation industry.
I mean... come on... Let the INVESTIGATORS do their work!
frmrCapCadet From United States of America, joined May 2008, 1759 posts, RR: 1
Reply 108, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 48595 times:
Like India the Arabian penninsula is a plate itself, and likewise crashing into the Asian plate.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
clydenairways From Ireland, joined Jan 2007, 1324 posts, RR: 0
Reply 109, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 48515 times:
Quoting cloudyapple (Reply 76):
How does one crash an aircraft so "comprehensively"? Apart the tail, the rest of the aeroplane is in pieces so small it looks as if it has been through a shredder. The aeroplane's crashworthiness maybe something that needs to be looked at.[/quote]
Please look back at other similar accidents to see plenty of examples. and not just ones in the last 12 months that some people on this site are trying to compare this to.
FlyWhisperjets From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 81 posts, RR: 0
Reply 110, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 48331 times:
Quoting airtechy (Reply 59): If you've ever been involved in a terrible car/plane/motorcycle crash you will be lucky to remember anything...even if you were unhurt. The brain has a way of forgetting anything that occurred around the accident time. Add in the fact the kid is seven years old.....forget it.
Rubbish.....I was in a bad auto accident 25 years ago.....I flew out of the drivers seat and through the passenger door window onto the street......I remember every detail...It all seemed to unfold in slow motion.....The one thing that did happen was smashing head first through the window did not hurt.....But I do remember that bad day in my life like it was yesterday....Also, I know 8 yr. old kids that are sharper and smarter than some adults......So lets wait and see what this child can tell investigators..
1st. time Eastern Lockheed L-188, 1st. jet Delta Convair 880
frigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1721 posts, RR: 1
Reply 111, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 48086 times:
Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 105): Indeed. I can imagine the standard of health care there is mediocre at best. Any plans to medevac him out of that place since he seems to be in stabilized condition?
No reports about that yet. But I'm sure they'll want to get him back to Holland as soon as medically feasable.
Quoting rj777 (Reply 100): I was going to say, do we know for sure his parents were on the plane?
Not officially confirmed. the total number of Dutch passengers (62) consisted of 2 tour groups, one of 24 and one of 38. Both were organised tour groups, and it is very unlikely that he was travelling alone on one of those groups.
Quoting spacecadet (Reply 73): The story this kid is going to tell might be interesting, and in the absence of any other sources it might help the investigators, but they have a ton of physical evidence there, including the CVR/FDR. There's not going to be any perspective he's going to bring that's going to be of much assistance here.
Anyway, many times survivor accounts are not that interesting, even as folklore. Often it'll go something like "there was a bang, then a lot of confusion, and then stuff started flying all over the place, and the next thing I knew I woke up in the hospital."
And more often than not, survivors saw things that just weren't there. I can remember several passengers who survived the MP DC10 crash in Faro reporting flames coming from one engine. Crash investigators later proved that this just couldn't have happened... Windshear was the main reason of that crash, engines were running fine...
frigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1721 posts, RR: 1
Reply 112, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 48249 times:
Quoting frigatebird (Reply 113): Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 105):
Indeed. I can imagine the standard of health care there is mediocre at best. Any plans to medevac him out of that place since he seems to be in stabilized condition?
No reports about that yet. But I'm sure they'll want to get him back to Holland as soon as medically feasable.
Quoting rj777 (Reply 100):
I was going to say, do we know for sure his parents were on the plane?
Dutch tv just reported that two of the boy's relatives will travel to Tripoli tomorrow, to be with him when he wakes up. Sadly, that seems to confirm his parents aren't alive any more
If the landing gear was down and the airplane landed belly first on it's landing gear, the tires should burst on impact. We saw just one month ago what the tires on an A330 due during a high energy landing (Cathay Pacific in Hong Kong).
So it strikes me as bizarre to see a nearly intact wheel. Either this particular wheel was stowed...or it wasn't the first thing to impact the ground.....
ruscoe From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1616 posts, RR: 2
Reply 114, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 47865 times:
The fact that a child survived tells me that the crash must have been relatively low speed despite the apparent damage to the aircraft. Nobody survives a high speed impact.
Children are often the ony survivors of a crash.
The reason is in very rough terms is that for the body strength increases as a square, but stress increases as a cube. So if you are twice as big, you are four times as strong but suffer 8 times the forces.
severnaya From Russia, joined Jan 2009, 1447 posts, RR: 1
Reply 115, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 47572 times:
New statement from Afriqiyah:
The passenger’s nationalities are as follows:
58 Dutch
6 South Africans
2 Libyans
2 Austrians
1 German
1 Zimbabwean
1 French
2 British
19 Unknown (to be notified upon confirmation)
11 Crew members (Libyan nationalities)
spacecadet From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3717 posts, RR: 12
Reply 116, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 47202 times:
Quoting seabosdca (Reply 91): He might remember that they touched down, or not. He might remember that the wing scraped the runway, or not. He might remember that the plane banked at an extreme angle before crashing, or not.
a) no, he won't remember any of those things. But he may very well remember things that did not happen, just like I remember the engine exploding on the plane I was on (it didn't).
b) all of those things can easily be gleaned from physical evidence better and more reliably than they can from 8 year old witnesses.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
LHRspotter From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2006, 182 posts, RR: 0
Reply 117, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 46947 times:
Quoting cainanuk (Reply 109): I mean... come on... Let the INVESTIGATORS do their work!
I quite liked his post and don't think it interferes with the investigators in any way. Posts like yours annoy me though. Why read this forum thread if you prefer to WAIT (a year to 18 months?) for the investigators to come up with a final report...
TK787 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4498 posts, RR: 12
Reply 118, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 46971 times:
Quoting Aesma (Reply 106):
I'm having trouble finding this thread (on the report), can you help ?
B707forever From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 459 posts, RR: 0
Reply 119, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 45176 times:
The only conclusion I have come to thusfar is that the captain and co-captain lost control of this aircraft. The question is why? The tire comment is intereesting and I thought the same thing. It looked odd amongst the pretty shredded everything else, though there were row of seats still in tact too. It did make me wonder if it didn't heat flat to the ground but perhaps to the side, though the tail looks pretty upright.
The reports that the Captain had radioed ahead for assistance and that there was trouble tells me this was an unfolding incident.
We know that crashes are just about always a string of untimely events. When you start at the end of the event, or the crash, it's impossible to speculate on what happened. The 'black boxes' are going to rule the day here and tell us what was h appening with all the computer systems, the aircraft and what the captain and co-pilot were saying to each other. We're going to know a lot within a week or less.
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 120, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 44984 times:
Re burst of tyres on impact. The tyre looks deflated to me. Intact but deflated. The plane went down on soft dirt not a hard runway.
Re the child and memories. Cannot say what he will or will not remember but if the CVR and FDR are intact with fulldata -0assenger info adds little to nothing to the investigation.
KFlyer From Sri Lanka, joined Mar 2007, 1235 posts, RR: 0
Reply 121, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 42711 times:
Sorry, I didn't go through all posts. As I understand, they had a go around, first trying to land in 27 and then 9. Sounds similar to the MTY A300F. But the A300 was far older ? Anyway, AeroUnion had never had a crash before the MTY incident and from what I read pilots were very talented and respected too.
The opinions above are solely my own and do not express those of my employers or clients.
ltbewr From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13242 posts, RR: 16
Reply 122, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 42293 times:
One has to wonder if there was some kind of mechanical problem here, especially with the alleged call of the pilots to get ambulances ready. Perhaps a engine failure, maybe a thrust reverser came loose, problem with a flap, any of those potential problems, like many other possibilites that the recoreders will indicate, could be factors.
I also wonder that with the large number of pax from the Netherlands and a political desire for a 'neutral' country to be involved (vs. France or in any way the USA or the UK) that the Dutch Safety Board will be involved in the investigation.
KFlyer From Sri Lanka, joined Mar 2007, 1235 posts, RR: 0
Reply 123, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 41813 times:
From Aviation Safety Network Runway 09 does not have an ILS. Only a Locator approach is available. Also, the Tripoli VOR was NOTAMed unreliable ("INTERFERENCE FROM SIGNAL BEING EXPERIENCED DURING CURRENT AIRPORT DEVELOPMENT WORK ( TPI VOR SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.")
The opinions above are solely my own and do not express those of my employers or clients.
KFlyer From Sri Lanka, joined Mar 2007, 1235 posts, RR: 0
Reply 124, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 41270 times:
PPRune sometimes gives good info.. Some pilots who have flown to TIP tell that the Locators were not functioning sometimes and the ATC ( poor in their opinion ) will put you for a VOR approach even if so. They also confirm VOR signal was interfered when cranes were moving.
Some also say that a Rwy 09 approach at this time means directly heading towards rising sun.
I am aware that some PPRune posts should be taken with a grain of salt, but these facts seem pretty logical.
[Edited 2010-05-12 18:48:28]
The opinions above are solely my own and do not express those of my employers or clients.
SSTsomeday From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 1276 posts, RR: 1
Reply 125, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 40207 times:
Quoting Braniff722 (Reply 47): Over time tho, I think a key piece of evidence of this crash is the little boy. What does he remember?
I don't expect much reliable testimony from the child. He was immersed in a terrifying trauma. Further, it's my experience that when witnesses don't UNDERSTAND what they are seeing, their testimony can become completely convoluted as their brains struggle to make sense of it.
Quoting ruscoe (Reply 116): The reason is in very rough terms is that for the body strength increases as a square, but stress increases as a cube. So if you are twice as big, you are four times as strong but suffer 8 times the forces.
Also, I suggest there may be the practical consideration that his head is a lot lower than his seat back. In fact, his seat is much larger, relative to his size, adding additional protection with regard to flying debris, or if his seat flips over on the ground during the course of the A/C disintegration.
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 220):
"Especially the tail structure being relatively intact contributed to that possibility."
It's almost cliche that we regularly see, in A/C crashes, a very emaciated airframe, but with the tail largely intact. I would venture that the position of the tail (up top, and aft) protects it from the bulk of the impact force, which is absorbed by fuselage and wings. It's fascinating that the leading edge of the tail has not appeared to be impacted at all.
I also understand that, for the same reason, statistically, passengers in the rear of crashing A/C are more likely to survive that those up front.
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 126, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 39983 times:
Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 93): So which of the five continents is Yemen located on?
I think it is generally agreed there are Seven continents - Asia, Africa, North America, South America, Antarctica, Australia and Europe. An argument could be made that Asia and Europe are one continent and that Australia is an island and not a continent, or that North and South America are one continent. I don't agree with those - but it could be the argument.
Quoting F9Animal (Reply 103): To be honest, I doubt anyone would have the time to really tweet this. I mean, that is really the last thing I would do in any emergency. It sounds like a way to get more press coverage. Did we not hear the same kind of stuff from the Air France crash last year?
During the last seconds before the crash - who knows. But if there was an emergency on the aircraft which was announced to the passengers before landing - someone may have tweeted. There are reports the pilot requested ambulances to stand by. There were also similar false reports right after another recent crash.
My memory of the AF447 report was that is was text message from a cell phone in the middle of the open ocean. Obviously no infrastructure in that location for a cell phone to work. Tripoli should have a cell phone infrastructure so it could technically happen.
Quoting KFlyer (Reply 123): As I understand, they had a go around, first trying to land in 27 and then 9.
Not confirmed. In fact NOTHING is confirmed yet - not even the location of the crash and debris.
The debris appears to be located south of the runway and west of the threshold for Rwy 09 - but not on a path for a Rwy 09 landing. The debris appears to be located in a position and a pattern indicating a crash after a missed approach for landing on Rwy 27 - going down as the aircraft turned to the left.
But again - the Libyan authorties have released no official statements as to facts about the crash.
The airline has made five news releases about the crash - only confirming which flight crashed and the nationalities of the passengers. No facts on the actual crash.
mandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6991 posts, RR: 78
Reply 127, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 40205 times:
The tail fin looks like it detached sometime during the impact and tumbled... with the horizontal stabilizers "relatively attached" until the last few meters... No drag marks...
One thing is, we have no idea at the moment whether the aircraft ended up where it is due to a single impact (or proximate impact), or there's a bigger impact elsewhere. I'm not seeing the engines.... If it was a nosedive loss of control situation, I doubt we'd see the tailfin end up like it is...
Heck, there's so little to go by to go for a "not so outrageous objective speculation"...
The photo of the seats are interesting however... the bottom forward rail went forward... strange... really strange..
Mandala499
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
If the landing gear was down and the airplane landed belly first on it's landing gear, the tires should burst on impact. We saw just one month ago what the tires on an A330 due during a high energy landing (Cathay Pacific in Hong Kong).
If you look better the tire look pretty cut. It has an internal structure that would make it appear inflated even if it's not.
I'm having trouble finding this thread (on the report), can you help ?
Accident Report For TK 737 In AMS Is Out (by rheinwaldner May 6 2010 in Civil Aviation)
Thanks, I wonder why the keyword "report" didn't work in my search.
Quoting ltbewr (Reply 124): I also wonder that with the large number of pax from the Netherlands and a political desire for a 'neutral' country to be involved (vs. France or in any way the USA or the UK) that the Dutch Safety Board will be involved in the investigation.
Well, a large number of Dutch pax would not be a good start for the Dutch to be neutral in this case, I would think.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
ccarter757 From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 28 posts, RR: 0
Reply 129, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 40083 times:
A terrible day in aviation indeed My thoughts and prayers to all of those who lost their lives, and to the young boy in recovering from his injuries and growing up without his parents.
rj777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 1915 posts, RR: 2
Reply 130, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 39871 times:
The USA will not be involved because it wasn't an American-built or registered aircraft, unless they decide to ask the NTSB for assistance.
sancho99504 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 576 posts, RR: 0
Reply 131, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 39887 times:
Quoting RB211TriStar (Reply 87): Talk about quick speculation. There is no basis for a statement of that magnitude from either direction.
I have to be honest, when I saw this on the news and saw the debris field and that the flight was arriving in Libya, my first thought was terrorism. I honestly believe it to be the case, as the captains radio call for ambulences haven't been verified unless I missed it and the fact that the aircraft is in a million or more pieces. I hope I'm wrong. And before I get flamed for this, the lack of a burned aircraft remains does not mean it wasn't blown up. TWA 800 blew up (centre fuel tank ignited) and the pieces of the aircraft recovered showed no signs of fire or explosion either.
Quoting cainanuk (Reply 109): Quoting AAExecPlat (Reply 84):
From what we know at this point, I believe this is likely to be pilot error. Either the pilots made an error on TOGA by not properly executing procedures and accidentally stalled the plane, or they were spatially disoriented and stalled the plane with too much bank/pitch. Less likely IMO is that the plane touched down and cartwheeled like we've seen in the MD-11 accidents in the past (most recently FEDEX MD-11 at NRT). Although less likely, that is still a scenario that seems plausible.
For aircraft failure to be an issue this close to the airport and past the runway on a brand new aircraft seems much less likely to me.
This accident also highlights one more issue in international aviation that many might be giving a pass...this is at least the fourth accident of an African airliner in the not so distant past (KQ 73G / ET738 / Yemenia A300) and I am sure I am missing some events. One has to wonder about the training and qualifications of African pilots. I certainly would not put my family on any African airline anytime soon (SAA excepted). When you put into context how many flight movements African airlines constitute relative to their peers from the US/Europe/Asia, and even South America, and you look at the number of crashes and fatalities, I suspect the African airlines would have much higher accident and fatality rates.
One has to wonder if cockpit environment and chain of command issues might be a cultural factor contributing to the crashes. I am thinking along the lines of what happened at Korean when they had their string of accidents and incidents...they brought in consultants to help them fix cockpit communications and chain of command issues, which turned their safety record around in no time.
Wow.
You gleaned all that from a couple hundred posts on an airliner enthusiast website and a few grainy photos? Quick, get your application pack in, the NTSB could not possibly carry on without you.
Seriously, speculation is one thing, but in this one post you have concluded what caused the accident, how it all happened, who was at fault and you have for all intents and purposes damned the entirety of a continents civil aviation industry.
I mean... come on... Let the INVESTIGATORS do their work!
Don't forget, the lack of crew resource management factored in a few CI crashes as well. I do believe that in a lot of countries, CRM is hard to take for captains, especially those who came from their countries air force, as has been the case in Japan, China, Taiwan, S. Korea, etc. That could very well be a possibility as one of the actions in the chain reaction that led to this event, however, I'm still of the opinion that this may very well have been terrorism.
Not to be insensative to the tragedy at hand but technically speaking, regarding airbuses with CFRP vertical fins...again...evidence in recent events have proven that the V/fin withstands some fairly severe events and would make for an opportunistic location for the data recorders as even in this event, a very hard impact...the fin has remained intact. (I am aware the boxes in this crash are already being reviewed), but for over water considerations, the AF447 scenario could in the future be avoided...g
BOAC911 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 454 posts, RR: 0
Reply 134, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 39164 times:
Quoting AR385 (Reply 107): At first, my opinion was that this crash was your typical CFIT. Degree of destruction is irrelevant. I remember the AVIANCA 747 crash at MAD, 1983. The degree of destruction of that 747 was total
It is an interesting point, however in that accident the AV 747 ended up on its back, and several unhurt or still conscious passengers were able to escape through cabin openings and even cabin windows before the fuel tanks exploded.
For many years, air safety authorities believed that because of the scale of their structures, wide-bodies might well be safer for their occupants in a "survivable" crash than their narrow body forbears. The first fatal widebody crash seemed to confirm this (Eastern Airlines 401 JFK-MIA L-1011 CFIT in the Everglades Dec. 1972) Over the past 30 years or so this hasn't really held true.
BOAC911 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 454 posts, RR: 0
Reply 135, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 39062 times:
This accident reminds me strongly of the CI A300 crash in Nagoya in 1994, especially because of the relatively intact tailplane
BOAC911 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 454 posts, RR: 0
Reply 136, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 38646 times:
[quote=rj777,reply=132]The USA will not be involved because it wasn't an American-built or registered aircraft, unless they decide to ask the NTSB for assistance.[/quote
The aircraft was equipped with GE turbines manufactured by GE Aviation, which to my knowledge is based somewhere in the greater Cincinnati, OH area.
This tailplane appears to have become airborne after impact and performed a backflip, striking the rudder trailing edge and rudder tip...that had to be a fast, hard flight into terrain...even though the area appears to be relatively flat...I had not gone through the threads, did this occur in darkness?...Been a lousy year for all type aircraft and the flying public...possibly cost cutting catching up with the airlines in many ways?...makes you wonder...g
babybus From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 138, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 37788 times:
Quoting offloaded (Reply 52): Pax entering TIP are reminded that photography is strictly forbidden.
This is never enforced. They say that on Austrian airlines when landing but BA don't bother. You can quite happily take obvious aesthetic shots on the ground too.
It is a shame the boy can't be medivaced to a European country where they have the medical facilities to cope with major injuries. The crash may not be the worst part of his ordeal.
rj777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 1915 posts, RR: 2
Reply 139, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 36433 times:
Quoting babybus (Reply 138): It is a shame the boy can't be medivaced to a European country where they have the medical facilities to cope with major injuries. The crash may not be the worst part of his ordeal.
The worst part for him is going to be when he learns his family is gone. Apparently, some are saying he had a 12-year old sibling on that plane as well. I wish him all the best in everything and hope he can come to grips with his loss.
And some news outlets are STILL reporting that he is 8 and not 10. Which is it?
AirlineCritic From Finland, joined Mar 2009, 759 posts, RR: 1
Reply 140, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 36433 times:
I do not think the report from the boy will bring significant amount of information. Not because of his age or shock. He simply was not in a place to gain much information about the cause of the accident. He may be able to say if there was something special going in the cabin (e.g., announcements about medical emergency which might have been the reason for the captain to call for an ambulance). He may be able to say something about the status of the engines, though I suspect that report from any passenger would be very unreliable. He may be able to say if the plane touched down on runway first, if the wing touched ground during this, and so on.
But he was not in the cockpit. In general, passengers may be able to say something about the path and attitude of the aircraft. But very little about the cause for it, for instance, if the plane is banking because the pilots are disoriented, because hydraulic systems have been lost, control surfaces have come off, the computer is acting crazy, or if the pilots are fighting with the hijacker for controls.
The plane came down, that much is obvious. Passengers will be able to report pretty much that, and maybe a bit of more information about sudden or special movements prior to that, crew announcements if any. But I'm guessing that in this case there was something that transpired pretty quickly. Maybe a run-of-the-mill go around with disoriented pilots banking too far close to the ground. Pilots missing something in the go around, perhaps due to the pressure to land due to some other earlier emergency. Bird hit during approach and then losing both engines as they attempted to climb out. CFIT following the faulty radio signals as reported on pprune.
A couple of other comments. First, I doubt the bomb theory. Wrong phase of the flight for that. If there was a bomb, it would have gone off either on climb, hitting a particular altitude, or during cruise when the bombers can do their thing in the lavatories.
Second, I do not think the relatively intact tires are in any way significant. Here's a tire from Space Shuttle Columbia, a relatively well preserved tire from far harder accident conditions:
Does it really matter if he is eight, ten, twelve?
I don´t believe they have TV cameras on him in his hospital room. That´s quite shocking, and must be for him as well! His first question when he comes around is going to be "where´s Mum?"
That there is a survivor at all says something about the impact itself- as above a certain negative G-force the human body cannot survive.
BA From United States of America, joined May 2000, 11154 posts, RR: 59
Reply 142, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 36088 times:
Quoting babybus (Reply 138): It is a shame the boy can't be medivaced to a European country where they have the medical facilities to cope with major injuries. The crash may not be the worst part of his ordeal.
Where have you read that the boy is not receiving proper medical treatment? Unless this is the case, there is no need to medevac him.
Don't assume he's in an inadequate medical facility simply because it's Libya.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
TommyBP251b From Germany, joined Apr 2006, 460 posts, RR: 0
Reply 143, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 35583 times:
Quoting peterjohns (Reply 142): I don´t believe they have TV cameras on him in his hospital room. That´s quite shocking, and must be for him as well! His first question when he comes around is going to be "where´s Mum?"
I strongly believe and I am 99,9% sure, that already someone from the Dutch Embassy in Tripolis is in the hospital taking care (translating, etc.) of the little boy. Maybe also a psychologist is already on his way to assist during his recovery.
ETinCaribe From Ethiopia, joined Dec 2009, 743 posts, RR: 0
Reply 144, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 35149 times:
Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 127): I don't expect much reliable testimony from the child. He was immersed in a terrifying trauma. Further, it's my experience that when witnesses don't UNDERSTAND what they are seeing, their testimony can become completely convoluted as their brains struggle to make sense of it.
Personally, I hope the priority will be to afford the poor kid a fast recovery and adjustment to his new life, and not extracting any ancillary data out of him, at least not very early.
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 128): I think it is generally agreed there are Seven continents
It totally depends; see for instance the Olympic rings representing the 5 populated continents.
AR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 6680 posts, RR: 34
Reply 145, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 34406 times:
Quoting BOAC911 (Reply 134): It is an interesting point, however in that accident the AV 747 ended up on its back, and several unhurt or still conscious passengers were able to escape through cabin openings and even cabin windows before the fuel tanks exploded.
The point I was trying to make is that the degree of destruction of an airframe from a CFIT can be total. Such destruction does not necessarily mean that the plane dove into the ground or crashed at high speed. On the AV crash, the right main gear and no. 4 engine contacted a hill at an altitude of 2247 feet and a speed of 142 knots. Three seconds later the aircraft impacted a second hill at a speed of 135 knots and a 4,9deg. nose-up attitude. Six seconds after contacting the 2nd hill, the aircraft (at 126kts) hit the ground with the right wing, which broke off. The Boeing cartwheeled.
The key to the above are the speeds. They were pretty low for all impacts and still there was nothing left of the airframe. There were 11 survivors, true, out of 192 occupants. I don´t know to what that can be attributed to though, but is that really a high number?
On the other hand, how much of the A330 airframe are composite materials? Can the high destruction of the Afriquiyah plane be attributed to the high degree of composite materials? How do this materials fared as compared to the aluminum ones?
Owleye From Netherlands, joined Feb 2006, 962 posts, RR: 2
Reply 146, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 34136 times:
The boy who survived the crash is almost for certain the 9 year young Ruben van Assouw from Tilburg (NL). He and his family went on a safari in South Africa to celebrate father and mother's (Van Assouw-Van de Sande) copper wedding anniversary (in the Netherlands schools have 2 weeks May-holidays). This is what the grandmother of Ruben, Mrs. An Van de Sande confirmed to the local Dutch news paper Brabants Dagblad. An uncle and aunt of Ruben are propably already underway to the Libya with the PH-KBX government Fokker 70 to find out whether it is the family member Ruben or not.
In the crash Ruben lost his brother Enzo (11), mother Trudy (41) and father Patrick (40). The family which went to Brussel Airport yesterday to welcome the family stayed on the airport the whole day waiting for updated news. I wish Ruben, who is a city mate of me, a prosperate recovery.
tom355uk From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2007, 336 posts, RR: 3
Reply 147, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 33756 times:
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 126): not on a path for a Rwy 09 landing. The debris appears to be located in a position and a pattern indicating a crash after a missed approach for landing on Rwy 27 - going down as the aircraft turned to the left.
Actually, the debris field doen not appear to be on the normal go-around path for 27 either. The published missed approach calls for a climb straight ahead to the 'D' NDB (0.6nm from the 09 threshold) and then a RIGHT climbing turn to the Gazala NDB.
oly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6869 posts, RR: 11
Reply 148, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 33243 times:
The plane crashed as it was landing around 200 meters before the fence that separates the airport runway from the premises outside the airport limits. A source told The Tripoli Post that the plane crashed within less than five seconds flying from the runway.
which would suggest it was landing on 09 but the approach was to the right of the runway and too low.
A photo shows the engine missing its front fan, located well away from the tail.
The plane crashed as it was landing around 200 meters before the fence that separates the airport runway from the premises outside the airport limits. A source told The Tripoli Post that the plane crashed within less than five seconds flying from the runway.
It seems that this accident is starting to have some tragic parallels to the Polish Tu-154 crash last month.
- Non Precision Approach
- Extremely poor weather conditions
- Aircraft off extended centreline at very late stage of approach
- Aircraft virtually destroyed by subsequent impact
GBan From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 152, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 31805 times:
Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 140): He may be able to say if there was something special going in the cabin (e.g., announcements about medical emergency which might have been the reason for the captain to call for an ambulance).
In which language would any cabin announcement on this airline be?
robffm2 From Germany, joined Dec 2006, 1124 posts, RR: 0
Reply 153, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 31511 times:
Quoting GBan (Reply 152): In which language would any cabin announcement on this airline be?
Giving the routing I believe it would be English and Arabic. Taking the pax into consideration too, it might be possible that some F/A speak Dutch too. They have flights to Amsterdam and their website has a Dutch language option too.
tom355uk From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2007, 336 posts, RR: 3
Reply 154, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 31342 times:
Quoting severnaya (Reply 151): That is nothing more than a rumour for the moment being, isn't it?
No, the METAR's from the time clearly state a degradation of visibility to around 2000m due to mist, and it has been established that the sun would have been rising directly in front of the aircraft IF it was on approach to 09 at the time of the incident, further hampering visibility.
Owleye From Netherlands, joined Feb 2006, 962 posts, RR: 2
Reply 155, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 31296 times:
Update online live news by NOS Journal 24 (Dutch Broadcasting) shows that the PH-KBX, and a KLM (regular scheduled flight) departed to Tripoli this morning. Dutch language:
Pihero From France, joined Jan 2005, 4763 posts, RR: 77
Reply 158, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 30625 times:
Although it is very early after the accident and no official statement has come from the Lybian authorities, there are a few aspects that need to be looked at before anyone could start any meaningful logical process ;
-If the approach was made on RWY 09, the only instrument let-down available would be a locator/locator...But then one needs to look at the METAR at the time of approach and sees that the sky was clear, it was dawn and the crew had very probably a very good visibility at altitude. That visibility would suddenly decrease to quasi-nil as the aircraft entered the haze lit-up by the rising sun.
-If the aircraft was on a RWY 27 approach and went around, the impact doesn't conform with the missed approach trajectory which requires a turn to a northerly direction... It seems that we could dismiss this scenario.
- Now we can talk about the different ways a non-precision approach can be performed on a 'Bus :
1/- Managed approach, autopilot on, TRK/FPA and a data-base recorded procedure. The procedure is akin to automatically flying a "virtual" ILS.
2/- Selected approach, autopilot on, generally TRK/FPA and the pilot uses the TRK and FPA buttons to keep the aircraft on the approach plate trajectory
3/- Classic Loc approach, automatic or manual.
It was said on another forum that the Lybian DGCA hadn't yet approved the Managed approach for the airline (or for Lybian airlines either...), so we're left with the types 2 and 3 .
Now, if one looks at the terrain around the airport, from the linked Googlemap, one would find that there are quite a few very straight road portions on an easterly heading that could be mistaken for a runway in a limited vis situation.
Another aspect of this accident is the total destruction of the airframe, which - and a few posters have already made such a remark - hints at an impact that was certainly not with level wings.
That is about all we could derive from the various sources we've got, and it's not much.
I have of course left aside the anti Airbus theories that are only contemptible and the semi-racist comments on Africa, which are despicable. They don't bring anything to the discussion. I have seen these people train and they had nothing to envy the "werstern world". A modicum of respect is due.
SN-MD11 From Luxembourg, joined Dec 1999, 116 posts, RR: 0
Reply 160, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 30203 times:
I can tell you from a good friend working there, that the working atmosphere deteriorated dramatically recently between the expats pilots (most of them being TRI/TRE) and the local pilots.
Pressure was put on them to "qualify" the libyans asap notwithstanding any skills/lack of training/safety concerns issues.
As a result many expats were put more and more often in reserve duties instead of flying. This is not cause but just an element. Operations in a Libyan company are not crystal clear, I let you imagine the CRM results (over confidence,...) and bad habits are never far away (friends of friends policy...). It's already the third recent crash involving a so called "safe and reliable" african airline (KQ, ET and 8U). Will the "poor airmanship" still be evoked ? Time will tell.
CityhopperNL From Netherlands, joined Feb 2009, 74 posts, RR: 0
Reply 161, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 30097 times:
Quoting aeroLogan (Reply 113): If the landing gear was down and the airplane landed belly first on it's landing gear, the tires should burst on impact. We saw just one month ago what the tires on an A330 due during a high energy landing (Cathay Pacific in Hong Kong).
So it strikes me as bizarre to see a nearly intact wheel. Either this particular wheel was stowed...or it wasn't the first thing to impact the ground.....
Thoughts?
..or the airplane was not in landing configuration but in TOGA configuration as we discussed before
Quoting ltbewr (Reply 122): I also wonder that with the large number of pax from the Netherlands and a political desire for a 'neutral' country to be involved (vs. France or in any way the USA or the UK) that the Dutch Safety Board will be involved in the investigation.
I believe France is going to assist, at least send an Airbus team to the scene but hey, surely there is only one organization that is capable of dealing with a distaster of this magnitude. They should call in the NTSB
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 126): Not confirmed. In fact NOTHING is confirmed yet - not even the location of the crash and debris.
The debris appears to be located south of the runway and west of the threshold for Rwy 09 - but not on a path for a Rwy 09 landing. The debris appears to be located in a position and a pattern indicating a crash after a missed approach for landing on Rwy 27 - going down as the aircraft turned to the left.
Actually, it hasn't been confired but there is no doubt about this anymore, there was a Dutch citizen who lives in Libya and visited the scene, and he submitted video material and pinpointed the location of the crash on a map as being west of the runway, 200 m away from the fence. And this also matches earlier Google Earth analysis because there is this double-domed Mosque very close to the crash site which is also visible on some photos of the scene.
Quoting tom355uk (Reply 147): Actually, the debris field doen not appear to be on the normal go-around path for 27 either. The published missed approach calls for a climb straight ahead to the 'D' NDB (0.6nm from the 09 threshold) and then a RIGHT climbing turn to the Gazala NDB.
Nope, correct, strange. But on the other hand, one thing we know is that if this was a missed approach it wasn't a normal one that's for sure.
MIAspotter From Spain, joined Nov 2001, 2872 posts, RR: 25
Reply 164, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 28426 times:
Weird thing is that we have not heard anything from the Controllers on the area at the time, I know they might not be able to tell any details to the press at the moment until the investigation is complete, but they could tell some basic details, what where the last transmissions to the aircraft, was everything normal?, where they cleared to land, did they reported an emergency, something.
oly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6869 posts, RR: 11
Reply 165, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 28475 times:
Looks like one of the main landing gear legs in the foreground of the photo here... with no wheels or bogies on it. Seems to have been snapped clean off the wing.
pilotaydin From Turkey, joined Sep 2004, 2539 posts, RR: 51
Reply 166, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 27336 times:
Quoting MIAspotter (Reply 164): Weird thing is that we have not heard anything from the Controllers on the area at the time
Looking more and more at the pics....and keeping in mind the Gulf Air flight that went in around in the mid east, and went into the water, and the Armavia A320 that went in near Sochi...it is quite possible that a go around phase problem may have occurred....
since the airbus aircraft autotrims itself....if you come in from a long range flight, like i do most of the time, sometimes after you disconnect the a/p, you have no way of knowing if you are flying manual or in an engaged mode after a few seconds unless you look at the right corner of your PFD....it is very easy to become tired and develop get there itis in the final stages of an E/R flight. Been doing it for almost 2000 hours as far as E/R goes and it is quite amazing how the airplane you know so well at the pushback, can become an airplane that baffles you after 10-12 hours of duty....
Having said that, Non precision is something that in my opinion is undertaught in the airline world..., not enough emphasis, as far as i am concerned is put on the theory and the technique behind it... you can fly the approach in 2 modes of selected in the airbus or one mode of managed, your choice and also dependant on company certification....it is quite easy to mess up a non precision approach in the bus, if you aren't proficient and if you are having issues with crm or experience...
so keeping all that in mind...crashing just short of an airport due to pilot error may have more weight on SA, or not knowing what the airplane is doing....or if there is an emergency, a mismanagement of resources....
we fly fast folks...we don't do everything in a logical order or sit back and analyze...some things are done based on pure reaction and instinct...you can make someone a great pilot...you can't make them a good decision maker...
The only time there is too much fuel onboard, is when you're on fire!
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 167, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 26127 times:
Quoting Pihero (Reply 158): -If the aircraft was on a RWY 27 approach and went around, the impact doesn't conform with the missed approach trajectory which requires a turn to a northerly direction... It seems that we could dismiss this scenario.
However the video and imagery we have seen indicates the debris field lies in a cone expanding in a westerly direction from a probable impact point.
oly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6869 posts, RR: 11
Reply 168, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 26096 times:
Seeing as Google earth can show the sun, here's where it would have been at 6.10am (4.10UTC) as seen from 100m above ground, runway dead ahead. The sun would have just been clearing the horizon at 6am. The crash seems to have occurred somewhere around this time.
SeeTheWorld From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1326 posts, RR: 4
Reply 169, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 25546 times:
Quoting oly720man (Reply 165): Looks like one of the main landing gear legs in the foreground of the photo here... with no wheels or bogies on it. Seems to have been snapped clean off the wing.
Pihero From France, joined Jan 2005, 4763 posts, RR: 77
Reply 171, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 24963 times:
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 167): However the video and imagery we have seen indicates the debris field lies in a cone expanding in a westerly direction from a probable impact point.
Could youn give us a link as I'm looking for that very kind of info and I haven't found a single picture that relates to the terrain / airport environment ?
Tks
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 172, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 24640 times:
There is an analysis on the first thread about this crash, where the folks are able to identify buildings from Google Earth, pictures of the area and the crash video.
Also, there is a video taken at the crash site which shows a CRJ which appears to have just taken off from the airport which would indicate the debris field is south and west of the airport - and spreading out in a westerly direction.
Also, early reports said the aircraft was landing from the east. Metars show winds consistently from the west throughout the day, though near the time of the crash - they were down below 10 kts.
I'll look for specific posts and links.
But I want to emphasize - this is all educated guess work. There is still apparently no official announcement/ information about the landing runway and debris location.
FlyingBird From Sweden, joined Mar 2005, 172 posts, RR: 0
Reply 173, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 24751 times:
Quoting Owleye (Reply 155): Update online live news by NOS Journal 24 (Dutch Broadcasting) shows that the PH-KBX, and a KLM (regular scheduled flight) departed to Tripoli this morning. Dutch language:
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 174, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 24185 times:
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 176, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 23532 times:
Quoting babybus (Reply 138): It is a shame the boy can't be medivaced to a European country where they have the medical facilities to cope with major injuries.
It would be criminally stupid to try to medivac someone with serious injuries away from good medical care before they have been stabilized and their home/ identity confirmed.
I'm sure the child will be moved as soon as it is medically safe to be near his remaining relatives - no less than a few days if his condition reports are true.
AVLNative From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 109 posts, RR: 0
Reply 177, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 23359 times:
Airbus crash: pilots tell of risks approaching Tripoli airport
Pilots who know the Tripoli approach have speculated that the airport’s old-fashioned landing aids may have played a role. It lacks an instrument landing system. Crews have to rely on a VOR radio beacon and Tripoli’s is subject to false readings, pilots said.
severnaya From Russia, joined Jan 2009, 1447 posts, RR: 1
Reply 178, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 23262 times:
Quoting severnaya (Reply 171): New official information will be most likely given in a press conference of the Dutch ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Hague between 5 and 7 pm CET.
It will be at 17:15 and the Dutch Foreign minister will be present.
comorin From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4908 posts, RR: 16
Reply 179, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 23176 times:
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 177): Quoting babybus (Reply 138):
It is a shame the boy can't be medivaced to a European country where they have the medical facilities to cope with major injuries.
I am sure he is getting good medical care - Libya is a rich enough country and Tripoli has good hospitals and surgeons - many expat. I wonder what a major Western trauma center could do for him that hasn't been done already. He's alive, stable, with no missing body parts so the surgeons deserve full credit.
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 180, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 23085 times:
Need some help.
It appears that the Libyan Transportation Minister held a press conference on the crash yesterday - May 12.
Two statements are attributed to him from the press conference - that terrorism has been ruled out and that there was one survivor.
Can anyone fine a transcript of the press conference, or a video?
Because there would probably be technical information like the landing runway, etc....
Most of the media just grabs a couple quotes and ignores most of the information.
Pihero From France, joined Jan 2005, 4763 posts, RR: 77
Reply 181, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 22782 times:
rfields5421,
Thanks, I missed the video as my screen was very small at that time., and I realised that most of the documents came from one source :oly720man who kept the pics on his profile. Nice.
'oly720man :
nice work on google, but the sky could be a lot brighter IMO.
In any case, your work makes me think that , as the least vis would have been found on the left of the nose, it would have seemed natural to hang onto what one wanted to see on the right side of the nose.
The geometry of your approach seems right for a normal landing, but the crash site, marked by the two-domed mosque, from this position would need a steeper trajectory.
I would be curious to see the aspect of the site at the same time but from the tail point of view.
nnomad From Portugal, joined Feb 2009, 32 posts, RR: 0
Reply 182, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 20600 times:
Quoting Pihero (Reply 181): 'oly720man :
nice work on google, but the sky could be a lot brighter IMO.
In any case, your work makes me think that , as the least vis would have been found on the left of the nose, it would have seemed natural to hang onto what one wanted to see on the right side of the nose.
CityhopperNL From Netherlands, joined Feb 2009, 74 posts, RR: 0
Reply 183, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 20475 times:
Quoting jetfuel (Reply 175): The lack of definite information is so blatantly obvious
I have been looking at Google Earth over and over again, and comparing the situation with pictures and videos, but I am puzzled. There is no single one of them that provides a good overview of the area, it is all so unclear, and the fact that many of the shots are made with zoom-in cameras dont make it any better. I'm afraid that I have to agree that the info is just too little at the moment.
Maybe Ill try to post some pictures tonight to show what I mean.
There is one thing quite obvious however, the amount of debris behind the tail section is much greater than the amount in front of it. Multiple images show that. I'm not sure what that could mean.
RJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 184, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 20138 times:
Quoting oly720man (Reply 168): Seeing as Google earth can show the sun, here's where it would have been at 6.10am (4.10UTC) as seen from 100m above ground, runway dead ahead.
Wow, where does one go to get these views of the world in 3D?
nnomad From Portugal, joined Feb 2009, 32 posts, RR: 0
Reply 185, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 20044 times:
Quoting CityhopperNL (Reply 183): There is one thing quite obvious however, the amount of debris behind the tail section is much greater than the amount in front of it. Multiple images show that. I'm not sure what that could mean.
Like a lot of us said (correctly or incorrectly) it does look like a high speed nose down impact: first sections of the plane are destroyed with all the forces envolved flying everywhere...the last sections, less power...less dispersion.
oly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6869 posts, RR: 11
Reply 187, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 19529 times:
Quoting RJ111 (Reply 184): Wow, where does one go to get these views of the world in 3D?
Google earth controls in the top right corner of the screen. Use the one with the eye in the middle to change the viewing angle up/down/sideways.
Winterapfel From Netherlands, joined Feb 2009, 24 posts, RR: 0
Reply 188, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 19495 times:
The bashing has started/continues....
translated from Dutch newspaper using translate.google
"he accident with the Libyan airline Afriqiyah Airways is similar to the Air France crash off the coast of Brazil, also with an Airbus A330, in June last year."
oly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6869 posts, RR: 11
Reply 189, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 19296 times:
Quoting Pihero (Reply 181): The geometry of your approach seems right for a normal landing, but the crash site, marked by the two-domed mosque, from this position would need a steeper trajectory.
That view was more to indicate where the sun was than to represent a particular approach profile since we don't know the real one.
Clearly we still don't know oficially which way the plane was flying, but an earlier report suggesting that the plane landed short of the perimeter fence points more to a landing on 09 and an undershoot rather than something badly wrong with a go around on 27.
I do wonder if the crew got a wrong visual reference from a road just west of the runway - yellow line.
There is a section that points more or less exactly at the crash site, coincidentally perhaps, but is it within the realms of possibility that in the descent the crew saw some headlights/streetlights on this road, thought they were the runway lights, aimed for them, realised late that they weren't and tried to pull up/go around and that's where it all went wrong. This section of road is 500m long and the distance to the crash site is about another 800-900m (google earth distances).
Aesma From Reunion, joined Nov 2009, 7112 posts, RR: 12
Reply 190, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 19172 times:
From AFP, own translation :
Quote: Une première réunion de la commission d'enquête sur l'accident s'est tenue jeudi. Cette dernière est composée notamment de deux experts français du Bureau d'enquêtes et d'analyses (BEA), cinq du constructeur aéronautique Airbus, ainsi que d'enquêteurs libyens, sud-africains et de deux observateurs néerlandais.
Les deux boîtes noires de l'appareil ont été remises officiellement à la commission par le ministre libyen des Transports, Mohamed Zidane.
Selon les conventions internationales, la Libye doit diriger l'enquête, à laquelle participe le pays constructeur de l'appareil de la compagnie libyenne Al Afriqiyah, en l'occurence la France.
Des experts américains du Conseil national de la sécurité des transports (NTSB) sont également attendus vendredi à Tripoli pour participer à l'enquête, a annoncé jeudi le président du conseil d'administration d'Al-Afriqiyah, Sabri Chadi.
M. Chadi a indiqué à la télévision d'Etat libyenne qu'"un rapport préliminaire devrait être publié dans les prochains jours". "Mais les résultats définitifs ne seront pas connus avant plusieurs jours, voire plusieurs semaines"
A first meeting of the investigation commission has taken place thursday. The commission is composed of 2 French experts from the BEA, 5 from Airbus, Libyan and South African investigators, and 2 Dutch observers.
Both black boxes have been officially given to the commission by the Libyan transport minister, Mohamed Zidane.
According to international conventions, Libya must lead the inquiry, and the country of origin of the airplane will participate, in this case France.
American experts from the NTSB are also expected friday to take part in the investigation, has announced Sabri Chadi, chairman of the board of Al-Afriqiyah.
M. Chadi said on the state Libyan television channel that "a preliminary report should be published in the coming days". "But definitive results won't be known before several days, or weeks".
In another part of the piece, it is said that the survivor is 9, and that Libyan boyscouts were waiting in the hospital to give him flowers.
[Edited 2010-05-13 09:09:25]
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
CityhopperNL From Netherlands, joined Feb 2009, 74 posts, RR: 0
Reply 191, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 19094 times:
Quoting Winterapfel (Reply 188): "he accident with the Libyan airline Afriqiyah Airways is similar to the Air France crash off the coast of Brazil, also with an Airbus A330, in June last year."
Yea I just read this in Dutch, well, it's an aviation lawyer who says this, he sees similarities because in both cases only the tail was found intact, but of course he is strongly biased because if there's a flaw in the A330, lawyers could make a lot of dough.
Aesma From Reunion, joined Nov 2009, 7112 posts, RR: 12
Reply 192, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 18569 times:
Whatever is found, whatever the company, whatever the airplane, the simple fact that in one case the plane was cruising, and in the other landing, means that it is not similar at all.
You could add that one crashed in water and the other on land. And that the tail is the part that is the more often recovered in good shape, in any accident.
This person and the journalist citing him are clearly speaking out of their asses.
[Edited 2010-05-13 09:37:13]
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
DRAIGONAIR From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 708 posts, RR: 5
Reply 193, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 18569 times:
Quoting KFlyer (Reply 123): Runway 09 does not have an ILS. Only a Locator approach is available. Also, the Tripoli VOR was NOTAMed unreliable ("INTERFERENCE FROM SIGNAL BEING EXPERIENCED DURING CURRENT AIRPORT DEVELOPMENT WORK ( TPI VOR SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION.")
hmmm, a friend of mine was "number 2" to land. he says the aircraft in front "number 1" executed a "missed approach" because of light mist. Then, when rejoining for the re-approach, the aircraft was flown low-level. TOO low, because the pilot flew it into the ground. My friend WATCHED it crash!
In fact there is a doctored photograph on the first page of this thread so I guess reliability is bad.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
oly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6869 posts, RR: 11
Reply 195, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 17576 times:
Quoting Aesma (Reply 194): In fact there is a doctored photograph on the first page of this thread so I guess reliability is bad.
do you mean the view between the aircraft with the smoke in the background? That'll probably be a Mig23 crash at an airshow last year.
Pihero From France, joined Jan 2005, 4763 posts, RR: 77
Reply 197, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 16963 times:
Quoting nnomad (Reply 182): I would go for something like this...
...and you probably caught the softer aspect of that approach...
Quoting nnomad (Reply 186):
The image i posted was changed in photoshop to create the new lighting .. google earth doesnt do those light effects
Quoting oly720man (Reply 189): That view was more to indicate where the sun was than to represent a particular approach profile since we don't know the real one.
My opinion still is with a 09 approach, in which case, your pic is very relevant
Quoting oly720man (Reply 189): I do wonder if the crew got a wrong visual reference from a road just west of the runway
...and let me wonder the same with you.
The longer I look at this event, the more I think of a tired flight deck crew at the end of a long night getting tricked by a visual illusion.
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 33
Reply 198, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 16924 times:
The one question I have about that concept - this was their home airport and dawn landings are frequent for long haul crews.
Though of course that might have lead to less cross checking than would be normal at an infrequent airport.
Viscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 26183 posts, RR: 22
Reply 200, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 16285 times:
Quoting CityhopperNL (Reply 161): surely there is only one organization that is capable of dealing with a distaster of this magnitude. They should call in the NTSB
Why do you say that? Other countries have accident investigation bodies with equivalent capabilities. A few examples: UK, Canada, Australia.
SA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 26
Reply 201, posted (4 years 8 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 15990 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW HEAD MODERATOR
This thread will be locked for further discussion. Any posts added to the thread, after the threadlock, will be removed for housekeeping purposes only.
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Sounds like a conclusive statement for an accident that just occurred. Do you know something that we don't that would lead to such a statement?
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(Based purely on your location, Mandala 
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