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John Leahy Obviously Sold A Bunch Of A380s #2  
User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 25
Posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 12341 times:
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This is a continuation thread from: John Leahy Obviously Sold A Bunch Of A380s. To Who?

Feel free to continue your discussion in this thread.


Rgds

SA7700


When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCFBFrame From United States of America, joined May 2009, 531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 12163 times:

Why is this being done? Does the site like the A versus B discussions? I don't think there is any more to be said about this. Please kill it.

User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2715 posts, RR: 25
Reply 2, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 12105 times:

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 1):
Why is this being done? Does the site like the A versus B discussions? I don't think there is any more to be said about this. Please kill it.

The A vs. B discussion starts only because people do not stick to the thread title. Actually the thread number 1 became very interesting shortly before it was closed when ChrisBA posted:

Quote:
Its Asiana and top ups for two of the Gulf region majors.

NH are taking the 748i last I heard. Glad to see they are taking bigger planes I guess.


User currently offlineCFBFrame From United States of America, joined May 2009, 531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 12051 times:

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 2):
The A vs. B discussion starts only because people do not stick to the thread title. Actually the thread number 1 became very interesting shortly before it was closed when ChrisBA posted:

Thanks, and being very honest, Chris is someone who does have knowledge of orders.


User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9109 posts, RR: 75
Reply 4, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 11993 times:

I also expect SQ to place a large order this year, I am hearing of a number of their older 777s being sold, and a need for a capacity gap between the 77W and 380 and also a large upward pressure on their capacity. This may end up as more 77Ws, more A380s, or opening the door for the 748i.

I expect a very interesting announcement when they past their figures in the near future, including a number of new routes to Europe, North and South America.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3390 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 11984 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 4):
I am hearing of a number of their older 777s being sold

SQ was one of my ideas although I thought that the older T7s were being replaced by the A330s that are currently being delivered or are these in addition to those replacements?


User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9109 posts, RR: 75
Reply 6, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 11886 times:

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 5):
are these in addition to those replacements?

I would think they would be looking at replacing the older 777-200ERs as well as the older -200s. They have only upgraded the interior product on a minority number of frames, which I think may point to those frames not being upgraded being replaced.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31007 posts, RR: 86
Reply 7, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 11658 times:
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I know a number of folks have said OZ is a possible, if not likely, A380-800 operator, putting them on routes like ICN-LAX, ICN-JFK, ICN-LHR, ICN-CDG and ICN-FRA.

OZ has two 747-400s and 3 747-400Ms. They appear to offer 747 service on ICN-JFK, ICN-LAX and ICN-PVG, but they don't differentiate the model.

Looking at their timetable, OZ flies a daily 74M and a six-times weekly 77E between ICN and LAX four hours apart (16:30 and 20:20). They fly a daily 744 ICN-JFK, a daily 77E ICN-FRA, a 4x weekly 77E ICN-LHR and a 2x weekly 77E ICN-CDG.

An OZ A380-800 will likely hold around twice as many people as a 74M or 77E and a bit under 50% more than a 744.

OZ operates ICN-LHR on Tue, The, Sat and Sun. They operate ICN-CDG on Wed and Fri. So it sound like they interleave one 77E (or one pair of 77Es) to service both LHR and CDG throughout the week. Based on departure and arrival times at both ICN and the destination city, it looks like OZ uses the same aircraft to handle both legs of the flight.

Now even if this schedule is due to slot restrictions, is OZ really running their 77Es at 100% load factors every flight and leaving behind another 200 people a day who would fly OZ if they could? And if they are, why has not OZ purchased or leased more 744s or even 77Ws?

And if ICN-FRA is consistently at capacity, why not schedule another flight? Lack of slots? If so, again, why not put a larger plane on the route?

There has to be a minimum fleet size for an A380, just as there is for any aircraft. At best, I could see them replacing their two 747-400s with two A380-800s, but is two a viable fleet size? And do they need another 100-150 seats on each of those flights every day?

If they replace their 77Es to ICN, CDG and FRA, that is around a doubling of capacity. And the cynic in me says OZ is going to have to discount - and discount big - to drum up that kind of business to fill an A388. Or a 748, for that matter. And frankly, I'd be just as gob-smacked if they were ordering the 748 for such missions.

And if OZ went daily to LHR, that would be almost 350% more seats. Daily to CDG would be around a 700% increase! Do people really think that three times as many people a week will suddenly want to fly between ICN and LHR or seven times as many Koreans want to see Paris? Maybe back when Winter Sonata was on…  

OZ's A350-1000 order makes total sense to me. It would allow them to increase capacity on their single flights to LHR, CDG and FRA. if they are flying a 744 and 77E to LAX, two A350-1000s should at least match capacity, and if it's a 744M and 77E, two A350-1000s would increase capacity. If OZ really had to have a VLA to JFK, maybe the 747-8 would be the better choice because they could in theory add 747-8Fs down the road to replace their 747-400Fs.

I can understand KE buying the A388 and 748 - they fly multiple frequencies with 744s, 77Ws and 77Es into cities like LAX so an A388 would allow them to consolidate flights (say a 744+77E) and the 748 would allow growth on 744 routes.

But for OZ, the A350-1000 I can understand.

But not a VLA.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31007 posts, RR: 86
Reply 8, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 11589 times:
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Quoting zeke (Reply 4):
I also expect SQ to place a large order this year, I am hearing of a number of their older 777s being sold, and a need for a capacity gap between the 77W and 380 and also a large upward pressure on their capacity. This may end up as more 77Ws, more A380s, or opening the door for the 748i.
Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 5):
SQ was one of my ideas although I thought that the older T7s were being replaced by the A330s that are currently being delivered or are these in addition to those replacements?
Quoting zeke (Reply 6):
I would think they would be looking at replacing the older 777-200ERs as well as the older -200s. They have only upgraded the interior product on a minority number of frames, which I think may point to those frames not being upgraded being replaced.
SQ has indeed been moving some of their 45 777-200 family member frames - Royal Brunei just took a few off their hands and I believe so has Transaero? I'm not sure how long the A333s are being leased for, but I would expect it's at least through the end of this decade to allow full delivery of the 20 787-9s and 20 A350-900s ordered to formally replace the 77Es.

SQ has received all of their 77Ws and they have the second half of their current A380 order to be delivered, which would replace the remainder of their 747-400 fleet. I could see them adding additional 77Ws to up-gauge some 77E routes, or they could add more A388s to up-gauge 77W routes and relieve the 77Ws to up-gauge 77Es. Or they could do a mix of both.  

[Edited 2010-05-20 08:56:39]

User currently offlineslz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 11465 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
do they need another 100-150 seats on each of those flights every day?

I think it is a misconception to assume you actually need to fill all of the extra seats all of the time to make it worth... Remember the A380 simply trashes the 777 (or anything else for that matter) on CASM, so I'd say filling half the extra seats all the time, or filling all the extra seats half the time would be more than enough already and maybe OZ think they can actually do that on LAX?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
There has to be a minimum fleet size for an A380, just as there is for any aircraft. At best, I could see them replacing their two 747-400s with two A380-800s, but is two a viable fleet size?


Small orders have happened before: how many A380s has VN decided upon again?

[Edited 2010-05-20 09:09:30]

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31007 posts, RR: 86
Reply 10, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 11366 times:
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Quoting slz396 (Reply 9):
Small orders have happened before: how many A380s has VN decided upon again?

The MoU is for four, which is two more than I can see OZ effectively using.

Then again, UU ordered two, so maybe OZ will create a charter division and fly them with ~800 seats.  
Quoting slz396 (Reply 9):
I think it is a misconception to assume you actually need to fill all of the extra seats all of the time to make it worth...

I agree, but you're looking at possibly doubling your capacity (replacing a 300-seat two-class 77E with a 600-seat two-class A388). That is surely risking a deleterious effect on yields... And again, is OZ running their 77Es at 100% LFs every flight? If they are not, then how full is an A388 going to be? Being profitable at only 400 seats is cold comfort when you're selling less than 300.

Replacing a 300-seat 777-200ER with a 400 seat A350-1000 makes much more sense to me. You still benefit from better CASM and extra capacity without the worry of flying (as many) empty seats.


And I am extremely skeptical that the CASM / trip costs / operating costs of the A380-800 are half that of a 777-200ER. If they were, we'd see a good deal more than 200 sales and Airbus never would have needed to offer the A350 family.


User currently offlineslz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 11184 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
The MoU is for four, which is two more than I can see OZ effectively using.

I agree we won't likely see them come to Europe with A380s, but LAX could very well be served with it.

Whether that is enough to warrant an A380 purchase, only time will tell, but IF this rumour is correct indeed, they might have earmarked some other routes to deploy them on too, not limited to the traditional long haul routes to Europe or the USA.   

Who knows, Japanese carriers for instance may soon see A380 competition from elsewhere than Singapore, Australia, The Gulf region and Europe. IF that were to be the case indeed, it would put even more pressure on ANA to act, because that's going to be a lot of VLA competition to face for them...

[Edited 2010-05-20 10:15:53]

User currently offlineBaschiiii From Germany, joined May 2010, 13 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 11172 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
And if ICN-FRA is consistently at capacity, why not schedule another flight? Lack of slots? If so, again, why not put a larger plane on the route?

They actually will in winter. 777 gets replaced by 747

If you check the booking mask and look for a flight, say in december, it shows the 747 as equipment already  

But i just found that out today also


By the way, i finally signed up to start posting, after just reading the forums all the time, haha  Smile So this is my first post

[Edited 2010-05-20 10:16:25]

User currently offlineKappel From Suriname, joined Jul 2005, 3533 posts, RR: 17
Reply 13, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 11156 times:

Interesting news at Flight Global, the a389 and a380F are officially on the backburner now.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...er-both-on-back-burner-enders.html

IMHO a wise decision. First get everything in order on the a388 (production issues and improvements like the 4 tonne gain in MTOW) and get the a350 flying on time. If the airline demand for the a389 is not so high, then there is no need to focus resources on that.

Quoting zeke (Reply 4):
This may end up as more 77Ws, more A380s, or opening the door for the 748i.

In the past, SQ was quite adamant about not being interested in the 748i. It would be interesting to see if they have changed their minds. There are some airlines where the 747 just belongs, and SQ is one of them, having operated the 747 for so long (like for example KL and LH). So it would be nice to see them ordering it. But I would not be surprised to see more 77W's and/or a380's being ordered. Heck, we may even see some a3510's, in addition to the a359's on order.



L1011,733,734,73G,738,743,744,752,763,772,77W,DC855,DC863,DC930,DC950,MD11,MD88,306,319,320,321,343,346,ARJ85,CR7,E195
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31007 posts, RR: 86
Reply 14, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 11119 times:
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Quoting slz396 (Reply 11):
Whether that is enough to warrant an A380 purchase, only time will tell, but IF this rumour is correct indeed, they might have earmarked some other routes to deploy them on too, not limited to the traditional long haul routes to Europe or the USA.    

So they'd swap out an A330-300 or 767-300ER with an A380-800?      

And if AF does replace their daily CDG-ICN 77W with an A388 and/or LH replaces their daily A346 with an A388 or 748, OZ might be better off by operating a smaller plane that they know they can operate profitably every day. NH is not sending (or planning to send) a ~200 seat "Inspiration of Japan" 77W to cities like LHR, CDG, FRA, JFK and LAX because they want to lose money. They're doing it because they know they can sell that many seats every day for a profit and therefore don't need to try and "make up on volume" by trying to pack a VLA. *


* - Though now the rumors are saying NH have indeed decided to order the 747-8, though I am guessing price didn't make them commit to such a plan and I hope it's not a mistake because I really like NH.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31007 posts, RR: 86
Reply 15, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 11107 times:
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Quoting Baschiiii (Reply 12):
If you check the booking mask and look for a flight, say in december, it shows the 747 as equipment already...

I wonder if it is a 747-400M, which has similar seat capacity to the 77E, or if it's an actual 747-400, which does hold about 100 more people.

And welcome to the forums!   



Quoting Kappel (Reply 13):
In the past, SQ was quite adamant about not being interested in the 748i. It would be interesting to see if they have changed their minds.

EK will order the 747-8 before SQ (or QF) does and I'll order the 747-8 before EK does - and I don't like the plane (as a passenger).  Silly

[Edited 2010-05-20 10:28:28]

User currently offlineBaschiiii From Germany, joined May 2010, 13 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 11064 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
I wonder if it is a 747-400M, which has similar seat capacity to the 77E, or if it's an actual 747-400, which does hold about 100 more people.

If airlinerouter is correct, it should be a 747-400
http://airlineroute.net/2010/04/29/oz-w10/#more-19801

I've take this Asiana flight (FRA-ICN-FRA) quiet a lot in the last few months, and it was packed most of the time. I guess they need the extra 100 seats

But I agree....i somehow cant imagine a daily A380 on that route....

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
And welcome to the forums!

Thanks 

[Edited 2010-05-20 10:36:10]

User currently offlineslz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 10954 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
So they'd swap out an A330-300 or 767-300ER with an A380-800?      

Who knows... it is another misconception to assume A380 routes MUST be operated by 774 or 77W right now.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31007 posts, RR: 86
Reply 18, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 10932 times:
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Quoting slz396 (Reply 17):
Who knows... it is another misconception to assume A380 routes MUST be operated by 774 or 77W right now.

That generally seems to have been the trend to date...

Anyway, if it is OZ and they do decide to significantly increase capacity on certain routes, we'll just have to see how that works out for them.

[Edited 2010-05-20 11:05:32]

User currently offlineEA772LR From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2836 posts, RR: 10
Reply 19, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 10891 times:

Quoting slz396 (Reply 9):
Remember the A380 simply trashes the 777 (or anything else for that matter) on CASM, so I'd say filling half the extra seats all the time, or filling all the extra seats half the time would be more than enough already and maybe OZ think they can actually do that on LAX?

The A380 only simply trashes anything else when it's got a certain number of seats filled. An A343 is more efficient than an A380 if you can fill the A343 95% and the A380 only 50%.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
EK will order the 747-8 before SQ (or QF) does and I'll order the 747-8 before EK does - and I don't like the plane (as a passenger).

That's blasphemy Stitch! How can you not like the 748I as a passenger??  
Quoting slz396 (Reply 17):
Who knows... it is another misconception to assume A380 routes MUST be operated by 774 or 77W right now.

Are you suggesting the A380 works on any route?



We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
User currently offlineslz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 10876 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
That generally seems to have been the trend to date...

I agree, but that is because right now, the A380 has been deployed on what could be considered as long haul routes only.

It is a given it is also going to be used on medium haul routes, especially in Asia and as such I can see some airlines make the step right from A330 to A380, driven by explosive growth as well as schedule reshuffles (less frequencies/day).


User currently offlineslz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 10835 times:

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 19):
he A380 only simply trashes anything else when it's got a certain number of seats filled. An A343 is more efficient than an A380 if you can fill the A343 95% and the A380 only 50%.

Have I said so?

In fact, have I said anything different than you?

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 19):
Are you suggesting the A380 works on any route?

Have I said so?


User currently offlineEA772LR From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2836 posts, RR: 10
Reply 22, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 10762 times:

Quoting slz396 (Reply 21):
Quoting EA772LR (Reply 19):
he A380 only simply trashes anything else when it's got a certain number of seats filled. An A343 is more efficient than an A380 if you can fill the A343 95% and the A380 only 50%.

Have I said so?

I was under the impression that you were suggesting that the A380 trashes everything else CASM-wise without giving any context behind your assumption. The A380 does destroy everything CASM-wise when you have a comparable number of seats filled. But you said:

Quote:
or filling all the extra seats half the time would be more than enough already and maybe OZ think they can actually do that on LAX?

I think it'd be unwise to buy a plane when you can only fill it's extra capacity half the time. But I'm not an airline CEO.  
Quoting slz396 (Reply 21):
Quoting EA772LR (Reply 19):
Are you suggesting the A380 works on any route?

Have I said so?

Again, I'm missing your context, or maybe you haven't given me any context behind your assumptions. I'm not being antagonistic (if I seem that way). Merely asking questions.



We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31007 posts, RR: 86
Reply 23, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 10737 times:
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I believe the A380 has been deployed on long-haul routes because I believe that is the market where it makes the most sense.

And I believe that the bulk of domestic Asia and India traffic will be handled through many smaller flights rather then few large flights. We've seen a number of new airports appear around Asia and older airports are undergoing renovations and expansions, all offering more gates and more runway slots.

Yes, I understand that you have carriers like SQ, TG, KE and EK running high-capacity 773s, but we're also seeing start-ups using high-frequency narrowbody equipment entering those markets and gaining market share. And I know EK is planning to launch a high-density two-class A380, but even that will be designed for flights out to 11 hours.

But I do not believe that we will see hundreds of A380s tooling around Asia and the Indian Subcontinent acting as...well, as air busses...

[Edited 2010-05-20 11:38:10]

User currently offlineDalavia From Australia, joined Feb 2005, 549 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (4 years 4 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 8678 times:

Quoting slz396 (Reply 20):
It is a given it is also going to be used on medium haul routes, especially in Asia

It is already happening.

SQ

SIN-HKG


25 Centre : What if this VLA will be stationed at slot-limited HND for long haul operations?[Edited 2010-05-20 22:33:27]
26 BoeingVista : EK SYD-AKL is even shorter and has been running for over a year
27 Burkhard : I don't get that argument, since it violates elematary mathematics and logics. The aircraft out there with the best CASM is the A388. Second is the 7
28 UALWN : There is at least another option: e) OZ down-gauges to a 767 kind of plane, because there are ~200 people (not more) who will fly OZ even if they are
29 Stitch : If it is just about CASM, all flights should be operated by A380-800s, and yet they are not. "Zvezda's Law" is not an absolute, and I believe it even
30 kanban : Hear Ye! Hear Ye! If that philosophy were true all US carriers would be buying them ... it fits the line that if they could be produced as a 10 a/p p
31 astuteman : Just as well nobody's used that line I guess.. Saying that the current uncertainly in supply is affecting demand, is not the same as saying the marke
32 Post contains links N14AZ : Another statement from CEO Tom Enders confirming that some new orders are in the pipeline: Source: http://atwonline.com/aircraft-engine...-a380-airlin
33 robffm2 : Is this really a new statement? Or is just another report about the same event (delivery of LH first A380)? Nonetheless, this report sounds quite goo
34 N14AZ : It is a new or additional statement. The initial statement came chief operating officer for customers John Leahy during a briefing at Airbus' UK plan
35 racercoup : I agree, CASM arguments are a sales tool and do not includes many factors such as freight carry capacity, schedule flexability, and purchase price. I
36 kanban : It was a play on the other thread about opening another line and how capacity would bring sales... really hard to justify with large a/c... A320/737'
37 astuteman : That's a fair commet. A second line for the A380 is clearly nonsense. But I think it's fair to say that if the supply constraint is BELOW demand, the
38 robffm2 : I don't think this is necessarily true. Supply above demand usually results in falling prices, stimulating demand again. And often a customer's deman
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