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787 - Any New L/H Routes?  
User currently offlinetimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1344 posts, RR: 1
Posted (4 years 7 months 2 days ago) and read 12308 times:

There has been much talk of the 787 being the ultimate 'hub-busting' point to point a/c. So, with deliveries of this beautiful machine soon to commence, do people think we are about to see some new and exotic route pairings which are unprofitable with today's 767's and A330's, or will airlines simply put 787's on their current routes and use the efficiency savings to lower fares/increase profits?

64 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1001 posts, RR: 51
Reply 1, posted (4 years 7 months 2 days ago) and read 12218 times:

Quoting timboflier215 (Thread starter):
There has been much talk of the 787 being the ultimate 'hub-busting' point to point a/c. So, with deliveries of this beautiful machine soon to commence, do people think we are about to see some new and exotic route pairings which are unprofitable with today's 767's and A330's, or will airlines simply put 787's on their current routes and use the efficiency savings to lower fares/increase profits?

You will surely see more point-to-point routes in the future as the 787 and A350 come online. The improved economics and lower trip-cost of these new airplanes will help, but the more important factor is just plain economic and population growth. There will be more people with the means to fly in the future, so more route pairs will justify a direct connection.

Keep in mind, there are nearly enough 787 and A350-800/900 on order to replace all of the 767 and A330 in passenger service. The 787 and A350 will continue selling for the next 10-15 years, so there will be a great deal of new capacity entering the market. Some of it will go toward adding frequencies on existing routes, but lots of it will go to new routes as well.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 2, posted (4 years 7 months 2 days ago) and read 12172 times:
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Initially you'll likely see 787s (and A350s) put on pre-existing routes as the airlines and their staff become familiar with the type. The Japan Civil Aviation Bureau will perform their own ETOPS certification so NH and JL will not be able to fly trans-Pacific operations for 12-18 months. As such, they'll likely send their 787s on regional missions and overland flights to the EU where diversion airports are close to the flight path. I'm not sure if the EU is planning to perform their own certification for longer ETOPS (beyond 120 minutes) missions (as they did with the 777) or if they will accept the FAA certificate at face value.

But soon enough we should see new routes opened, especially if Boeing can get the 787-9 into service with a nominal range over 8000nm (they're shooting for ≥8150nm).

[Edited 2010-05-23 14:37:47]

User currently offlinejalap From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 355 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 7 months 2 days ago) and read 12067 times:

ANA opening NRT-BRU as first long haul 787-route was rumoured here a few weeks ago, although not exactly an exotic city pair it would fit the long, thin principle.

User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 11924 times:

It's worth remembering that it is quite a big aircraft, and has a very long range. So it should fragment the longer routes (5000nm+), but i don't expect much to happen on lengths below this.

The early operators will have a luxury of being able to "abuse" the low op costs (ie give less concern to yeilds and load factor) because they will be up against older, less efficient jets of the competition. But when the competition gets them too and can compete better, such abuse might not be allowed.


User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1001 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 11754 times:

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 4):
It's worth remembering that it is quite a big aircraft, and has a very long range. So it should fragment the longer routes (5000nm+), but i don't expect much to happen on lengths below this.

The 787-8 is essentially the same size as the A330-200, yet it will require fewer seats than a 763ER to break-even on a given route. If ANA is any indication, the 787-8 will also outperform existing aircraft on routes that are no more than a few hundred nm. That's quite opposite the conventional wisdom we hear on A.net...

As for route fragmentation, I think there are numerous opportunities below 5,000 nm for new city pairs. Not only because the 787-8 can open thinner routes than the 763ER or A332, but because of economic and population growth. Taking my corner of the world, Texas, for example, I think you will see primary markets like DFW and IAH gain more direct city pairs to European secondary markets like MUC, FCO, CPN, etc. I think you will also see secondary Texas markets like AUS and SAT - two of the fastest growing U.S. metro areas - come out from behind the shadow of DFW and IAH by gaining their first direct European connections.


User currently offlinePRAirbus From Puerto Rico, joined Apr 2005, 1144 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 11631 times:

AA: MIA-NRT/HND, MIA-CPT-JNB, MIA-TLV (if they ever sign a contract with its pilots!!!) LOL :O

User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 11099 times:

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 5):
The 787-8 is essentially the same size as the A330-200, yet it will require fewer seats than a 763ER to break-even on a given route.

Airlines won't think, "it's ok we're breaking even" though, they'll think "look at all that potential profit we are wasting". So whilst there theortically will be more medium-range, thin routes that can break even, i don't see why they'll necessarily be taken up - there will likely be more profitable ways to organise the network than going P2P crazy.


User currently offlinetayser From Australia, joined Mar 2008, 1135 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 11007 times:

AC: YVR-MEL-YVR (their CEO has been quoted as saying this is the kind of market the 787 will perform well for them).

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 9, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 10664 times:
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Quoting RJ111 (Reply 7):
So whilst there theortically will be more medium-range, thin routes that can break even, i don't see why they'll necessarily be taken up - there will likely be more profitable ways to organise the network than going P2P crazy.

Well we've been seeing that trend for more than a decade with the A330, A340 and 777 so I don't see why it would suddenly stop with the arrival of the more-efficient 787 and A350. The less people you need to make a route break-even, the more seats you can sell at a profit.


User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 10476 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
Well we've been seeing that trend for more than a decade with the A330, A340 and 777

Really? After 9/11 and the Recession? Off the top of my head BA have cut a lot of routes in the last decade - particularly in the Far East. AC i know cut a lot to Europe. Sure others have added, i'm thinking CO - would be interesting to see the figures.


User currently offlinetimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1344 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 10373 times:

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 7):
there will likely be more profitable ways to organise the network than going P2P crazy.

If there is a profit to be made on long, thin, routes with more efficient a/c such as the 787 (especially if there are no other carriers flying it), why would an airline not fly it? Or do you reckon that an airline will just replace it's current fleet with more modern a/c and reap the rewards of the lower fuel costs?


User currently offlinepnwtraveler From Canada, joined Jun 2007, 2296 posts, RR: 12
Reply 12, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 10195 times:

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 10):
AC i know cut a lot to Europe.
AC dropped some frequencies but that was mostly offset by the adding of the 777 to routes such as LHR so the loss of seats is less than previously with the A340's. As a matter of fact AC has added new routes so I would hardly say cut a lot was accurate. London has been a bit softer but I think some of that is because people are to some extent avoiding LHR as a hub.

After initial deployments on key routes, I think we could see another wack at Mumbai and New Delhi by AC. We probably will see more to Asia and quite likely China in particular. South America seems to be doing really well and additional routes may be added.

[Edited 2010-05-24 09:28:42]

User currently offlineSolarFlyer22 From US Minor Outlying Islands, joined Nov 2009, 1125 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 9543 times:

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 5):
The 787-8 is essentially the same size as the A330-200, yet it will require fewer seats than a 763ER to break-even on a given route. If ANA is any indication, the 787-8 will also outperform existing aircraft on routes that are no more than a few hundred nm. That's quite opposite the conventional wisdom we hear on A.net...

That's consistent with what I have heard. Above a 300 mile range it basically it will outperform anything in the sky right now. That will open up a lot of possibilities that even now are hard to predict. I think you will also see some trans con pairings between cities that do not normally get service with such a big plan. San Diego to NYC for example or Seattle to Miami. It will put pressure on JetBlue and WN which operate narrowbody types on some fairly long routes.


User currently offlinemotorhussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3334 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 9477 times:

Pure speculation...

NZ: AKL-BOM, AKL-ICN, MEL-AKL-JFK/EWR, SYD-AKL-GRU, AKL-MEL-JNB.

Also, AKL-YVR will have the 772ER replaced with 789 and frequency increased. The 763ER on AKL-KIX will also be replaced with 789 with timing out of AKL coinciding to meet the flight from GRU.

Regards
MH



come visit the south pacific
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 15, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 8818 times:
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The QF Group is also starting new services with A330s and 787s. And here in Seattle we've added a number of new non-stop A330, A340 and 777 services to Asia and Europe where before we had to first transit a West Coast or East Coast hub.

User currently offlineUAL747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 8613 times:

NH: I was thinking I heard NRT-DEN with them as rumored.

I don't really know if this is going to open up any "NEW" markets on a wide scale, but I think it's going to re-open some routes that have been axed like DFW-KIX or DFW-ZRH.

I think you will see a few additions to large international airports, and again, using DFW, I'm going to throw in a Middle Eastern destination like DFW-DXB/DOH and perhaps some European carriers into DFW.

As far as "secondary" airports, I just don't see anyone thinking about doing AUS/SAN-Europe or Asia. I have to use cities in my area. I don't see a STL-LGW flight. Perhaps, PEEEEERHAPS, a MSY-CDG, but I just don't think it can be filled. Maybe an A319CJ or a BBJ style carrier.

I also think the majority of what will happen first is down-gauges from 777 routes. You basically have the same range, in theoretically, and many routes that have to be reached by 777 are often overkill for that route.

UAL


User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 8286 times:

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 12):
As a matter of fact AC has added new routes so I would hardly say cut a lot was accurate.

Al lot that were operated around 2002-2006 when the 763s first arrived have gone...

GLA, SNN, HEL, NKM, AMS, MAN, KIX, as you say, DEL, BOM.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 18, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 8126 times:
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Quoting RJ111 (Reply 17):
Al lot that were operated around 2002-2006 when the 763s first arrived have gone...

GLA, SNN, HEL, NKM, AMS, MAN, KIX, as you say, DEL, BOM.

But when the Economy comes back and more efficient planes enter the market, it does not strike me as unreasonable that such routes will come back and new routes be launched.


User currently offlineAeroflot001 From Argentina, joined Oct 2009, 412 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7872 times:

It was bad enough when AA cut everything so abruptly 2 years ago I do not even want to think about something like that happening. Maybe if SJU offered AA the new terminal that might help sway them  

User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6926 posts, RR: 12
Reply 20, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7813 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Initially you'll likely see 787s (and A350s) put on pre-existing routes as the airlines and their staff become familiar with the type. The Japan Civil Aviation Bureau will perform their own ETOPS certification so NH and JL will not be able to fly trans-Pacific operations for 12-18 months. As such, they'll likely send their 787s on regional missions and overland flights to the EU where diversion airports are close to the flight path. I'm not sure if the EU is planning to perform their own certification for longer ETOPS (beyond 120 minutes) missions (as they did with the 777) or if they will accept the FAA certificate at face value.

Will the 787 be ETOPS180/240 rated by the FAA right at EIS ? I thought you needed some flight hours in any case.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlinewill777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2009, 174 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 7662 times:

Could the 787 allow new routes to open up between PHL and Asia?

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 22, posted (4 years 7 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 7357 times:
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Quoting Aesma (Reply 20):
Will the 787 be ETOPS180/240 rated by the FAA right at EIS?

They're planning to receive ETOPS-180 (encompassing the 15% extension allowing a maximum diversion time of 207 minutes) at EIS. The ability to operate beyond that appears to vary by country and also depends on the fire-suppression system capacity per the discussion in this thread - Easa Approves Airbus Family For ETOPS-240 (by Stitch Nov 13 2009 in Civil Aviation) - so I cannot see the 787 being certified beyond ETOPS-180 at EIS.


User currently offlinegemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5815 posts, RR: 6
Reply 23, posted (4 years 7 months 23 hours ago) and read 6601 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
The QF Group is also starting new services with A330s and 787s

What are you thinking of, Stitch?

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 24, posted (4 years 7 months 23 hours ago) and read 6585 times:
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Quoting gemuser (Reply 23):
What are you thinking of, Stitch?

JQ is in the process of launching a number of new routes into the EU with leased A330-200s, are they not?

And I can't see QF looking at up to 115 (at the time they placed their orders, options and MoUs) frames without some expansion ideas...


25 hjulicher : PEK-DTW-PEK by China Southern with a B787.
26 RP TPA : My predictions for Air Canada (for what it's worth): YYZ-ICN/KIX/DEL/DME/JNB/BEY/CAI/GIG YVR-CAN (Guangzhao)/MEL YUL-BEY (if not served from Toronto)/
27 keesje : I think routes are determined by demand. That won't change because of the 787. Aircraft like the A330, A340, 777 and 767 can perform those routes, and
28 laphroig : Actually, airlines buy new aircraft to enable them to make money. This can be done in various ways - additional capacity where demand is there, lower
29 Post contains links airceo : I blogged about this in the context of AC specifically. If the 787 delivers to promised specs then it make a lot of things possible/viable that isn't
30 RJ111 : I think about 5 routes in that article could have the potential to work. DEL, BOM, YYZ-ICN, YYZ-PVG, YVR-MEL. Forget the rest.
31 beechnut : AC have been serving ICN for quite some time on YVR-ICN with the 767-300. I used to travel to Seoul 1 or 2x per year on business and have flown this
32 Post contains images airceo : That's what I was getting at in the blog post @airceo
33 gemuser : No JQ is not planning EU routes, 3K (Jetstar Asia) is. Which is a great disapointment to many in Australia. 3K is not technically regarded as part of
34 Post contains links Stitch : Hmm... Last November there was an article in the Sydney Morning Herald noting that JQ was considering starting ops to ATH, MUC, MXP, and FCO with the
35 jflchantha : Possibly, LON-HNL BOS-PEK I think the second is in talks with an airline atm?
36 UAL747 : China Southern? They operate out of CAN.
37 Post contains links gemuser : Change of plan, apparently. From Flight Gobal 12 May 10: [Quote] Low-cost carrier Jetstar Asia will receive its first Airbus A330 by year-end, and pl
38 QFYMML : As gemuser mentioned, I do believe that FCO & ATH are being considered from SIN, but using 3K rather than JQ, though I assume that the leased 332
39 timboflier215 : True, but if the 787 can perform them more cheaply, then the break even load factor is lower and so airlines could run these routes at a profit, wher
40 Stitch : CO just announced service from Houston to Aukland using 787s starting in November 2011.
41 gemuser : See seperte thread for discussion. This has been announced so far ahead of time that we do need to remember that things can go wrong, cirumstances ch
42 ff22DXB : The also operate a few routes out of PEK, however their main Hub its indeed CAN. What about AM, ther are also getting some 787. New routes will be ad
43 burnsie28 : True but they already announced that they would fly PEK-DTW when they get their 787's
44 Ben175 : The 787 will open up alot of new destinations from PER. I can definitely see direct links to PEK, PVG, SGN and ICN.
45 ff22DXB : But you can fly those routes with an A340/B777 why use the 787. I will only 787 for ULH flights. FF
46 keesje : Most long haul flights are
47 seabosdca : The 787 is not a ULH aircraft. The 787-8 has range very similar to that of the 777-200ER. The 787-9 looks to add about 500 nm to the range of the 787
48 Ben175 : Exactly, and right now the routes I specified aren't profitable to operate with a 330 or 777. That's why the 787 is going to be a godsend for small,
49 Post contains links and images Jacobin777 : Looks like CO wasn't paying too much attention to that... CO To Start IAH-AKL (by Web May 26 2010 in Civil Aviation)
50 vin2basketball : I have a list of new routes for Continental on my blog and the reasons why, but I'm not sure if I can link to it so...
51 motorhussy : Well scratch the MEL-AKL-JFK/EWR route now CO's commencing IAH-AKL. Regards MH
52 tayser : I think the 787 in QF is going to benefit EVERY city outside of fortress SYD! PER-AUH/DXB would be a contender (see below). if QF mainline were to re
53 gemuser : Tayser, while I hope you are right, at least generally, I really think you are going to be disappointed. I would be very, very surprised if more than
54 motorhussy : ?????? What market is more settled than Australia?
55 Post contains images RJ111 : I presume he is referring to the population density of Australia. Which is the 3rd most sparsely populated true country in the world. Either that or h
56 aerokiwi : Except the only 787 route announced to date (I believe it's the first) is a brand new one... Yay! Gee don't sound too upbeat there.
57 vin2basketball : Will 777, yes it can open up new routes to Asia but unfortunately us only has ordered the A350. Aerokiwi, NH has already announced NRT - BRU and DEN
58 Post contains images gemuser : And a POM should talk about unsettling!!! All things considered, I'm not particularly upbeat about this route, unlike most of the posters in this thr
59 brilondon : Would this not also have been the case with the alliance with LH? Routes that were marginal flying directly now can be reached using LH from FRA and
60 vin2basketball : The routes I came up with for my blog "Houston-Auckland is just the first of many new routes that should be made possible by the 50 odd 787s that Unit
61 RJ111 : That is probably the most sensible route suggestion list i have seen. The only one i would disargee with is #2 and the reason is that PEK would as a r
62 Post contains images DfwRevolution : I like the sound of that, but I must have missed the memo.
63 ff22DXB : Didnt know that Texas was a country, thats why my mamma told me not to skip classes!!
64 vin2basketball : guys it was a joke, and an allusion to my home state's independent nature, and current anti-federal government stance
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