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US-Eastern Europe-US Traffic Numbers NOV/09  
User currently offlineDanVS From Brazil, joined Jul 2009, 248 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 4552 times:

TOP 10

LO WAW ORD 95,8%
LO WAW JFK 92,3%
LO WAW EWR 91,8%
DL SVO JFK 89,7%
LO JFK WAW 88,2%
LO EWR WAW 88,1%
VV KBP JFK 87,4%
LO KRK ORD 87,3%
LO ORD WAW 84,9%
DL JFK PRG 84,6%

BOTTOM 5

SQ IAH DME 59,0%
SU SVO IAD 58,5%
SU IAD SVO 56,0%
HY JFK RIX 55,8%
SQ DME IAH 49,7%


PER COUNTRY

Czech Republic

DL JFK PRG 84,6%
DL PRG JFK 81,4%

Estonia

HY RIX JFK 78,2%
HY JFK RIX 55,8%

Hungary

DL BUD JFK 75,5%
DL JFK BUD 66,4%

Poland

LO WAW ORD 95,8%
LO WAW JFK 92,3%
LO WAW EWR 91,8%
LO JFK WAW 88,2%
LO EWR WAW 88,1%
LO KRK ORD 87,3%
LO ORD WAW 84,9%
LO ORD KRK 83,6%

Russia

DL SVO JFK 89,7%
DL JFK SVO 83,7%
SU SVO LAX 79,6%
UA DME IAD 77,8%
SU SVO JFK 77,5%
SU JFK SVO 76,6%
SU LAX SVO 68,3%
UA IAD DME 61,4%
SQ IAH DME 59,0%
SU SVO IAD 58,5%
SU IAD SVO 56,0%
SQ DME IAH 49,7%

Ukraine

VV KBP JFK 87,4%
VV JFK KBP 72,6%

Rgs,

25 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinesurfandsnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2797 posts, RR: 30
Reply 1, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 4236 times:

Quoting DanVS (Thread starter):
Estonia

HY RIX JFK 78,2%
HY JFK RIX 55,8%

What a high discrepancy between the outbound and the return! Any idea why this might be? Lots of one-way migration into the U.S.???

Quoting DanVS (Thread starter):
Hungary

DL BUD JFK 75,5%
DL JFK BUD 66,4%

Some have rumored that DL's JFK-BUD flights will be getting cut, but these numbers indicate rather decent performance during even the low season.

Quoting DanVS (Thread starter):
Poland

LO WAW ORD 95,8%
LO WAW JFK 92,3%
LO WAW EWR 91,8%
LO JFK WAW 88,2%
LO EWR WAW 88,1%
LO KRK ORD 87,3%
LO ORD WAW 84,9%
LO ORD KRK 83,6%

Very impressive, although we all know this is primarily low-yielding VFR traffic - very few wealthy leisure travelers or biz traffic on these flights.

Quoting DanVS (Thread starter):
Russia

DL SVO JFK 89,7%
DL JFK SVO 83,7%
SU SVO LAX 79,6%
UA DME IAD 77,8%
SU SVO JFK 77,5%
SU JFK SVO 76,6%
SU LAX SVO 68,3%
UA IAD DME 61,4%
SQ IAH DME 59,0%
SU SVO IAD 58,5%
SU IAD SVO 56,0%
SQ DME IAH 49,7%

Wow, the U.S. carriers (DL and UA) are doing quite a bit better than SU! Pretty sad, when you consider that UA is a newcomer to the U.S.-Russia market, while Aeroflot has been flying it for decades! As for SQ, they seem to be getting enough high-yielding traffic to make that route work. Load factors don't always correlate with profitability or lack thereof.

Quoting DanVS (Thread starter):
Ukraine

VV KBP JFK 87,4%
VV JFK KBP 72,6%

Looks like VV really brings home the bacon while DL's now seasonal JFK-KBP flights do not.



Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24075 posts, RR: 22
Reply 2, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 4162 times:

Without yield information, load factors by themselves aren't very meaningful in terms of indicating profitability.

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 1):
Quoting DanVS (Thread starter):
Estonia

HY RIX JFK 78,2%
HY JFK RIX 55,8%

Since that's a 5th freedom sector on Uzbekistan Airways operating TAS-RIX-JFK, I assume those load factor numbers include all passengers on the RIX-JFK-RIX sectors, both TAS-JFK and the (probably fewer) RIX-JFK 5th freedom passengers.


User currently offlineSomeone83 From Norway, joined Sep 2006, 3173 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 4155 times:

Quoting DanVS (Thread starter):
Estonia

HY RIX JFK 78,2%
HY JFK RIX 55,8%

RIX = Riga, Latvia


User currently offlinesurfandsnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2797 posts, RR: 30
Reply 4, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 4130 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 2):

Since that's a 5th freedom sector on Uzbekistan Airways operating TAS-RIX-JFK, I assume those load factor numbers include all passengers on the RIX-JFK-RIX sectors, both TAS-JFK and the (probably fewer) RIX-JFK 5th freedom passengers.

I see. But where is all this demand from Uzbekistan to the U.S. coming from? With Latvia being a relatively wealthy E.U. nation, much closer to the U.S., and a Visa Waiver Program country, I would think its folks would be all over these flights.



Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24075 posts, RR: 22
Reply 5, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 4113 times:

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 4):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 2):

Since that's a 5th freedom sector on Uzbekistan Airways operating TAS-RIX-JFK, I assume those load factor numbers include all passengers on the RIX-JFK-RIX sectors, both TAS-JFK and the (probably fewer) RIX-JFK 5th freedom passengers.


I see. But where is all this demand from Uzbekistan to the U.S. coming from? With Latvia being a relatively wealthy E.U. nation, much closer to the U.S., and a Visa Waiver Program country, I would think its folks would be all over these flights.

I think a large percentage of HY's traffic to/from JFK is connecting beyond TAS to their other destinations in Asia. They have always had a reputation for offering some very low fares.


User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5225 posts, RR: 25
Reply 6, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 4113 times:

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 1):
Looks like VV really brings home the bacon while DL's now seasonal JFK-KBP flights do not.

I didn't see DLs numbers for JFK-KBP listed. Regardless, who knows what sort of yield VV is getting on this route, so we don't really know how VV is performing relative to DL.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24075 posts, RR: 22
Reply 7, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 4079 times:

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 4):
With Latvia being a relatively wealthy E.U. nation

EU data for each of the 3 years through 2008 (latest available) shows Latvia as the 4th poorest of the 27 EU countries based on GNP per capita. Only Poland, Bulgaria and Romania are lower. Latvia and Poland are just about equal.


User currently offlineworldtraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 4078 times:

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 1):

VV KBP JFK 87,4%
VV JFK KBP 72,6%


Looks like VV really brings home the bacon while DL's now seasonal JFK-KBP flights do not.
Quoting OA412 (Reply 6):
I didn't see DLs numbers for JFK-KBP listed. Regardless, who knows what sort of yield VV is getting on this route, so we don't really know how VV is performing relative to DL.

Given that the directional routes were listed for every other route but not this one and one direction for VV was compared to the opposite for DL, the data is suspect.....
It is nearly certain that DL gets the best yield on this route... since the highest yield is undoubtedly US point of sale originating corporate traffic.
DOT revenue information indicates that KBP is DL's 2nd best performing eastern Europe city behind SVO... but all of it is seasonal which is why most of it is reduced during the winter.


User currently offlinesurfandsnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2797 posts, RR: 30
Reply 9, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 4052 times:

Quoting worldtraveler (Reply 8):
It is nearly certain that DL gets the best yield on this route... since the highest yield is undoubtedly US point of sale originating corporate traffic.
Quoting worldtraveler (Reply 8):
all of it is seasonal which is why most of it is reduced during the winter.

Corporate traffic is not seasonal, though. DL must be relying on quite a bit of summer break VFR and tourists to fill the planes.



Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24075 posts, RR: 22
Reply 10, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 4047 times:

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 9):
Corporate traffic is not seasonal, though.

On many routes it certainly is seasonal. For example, there is much less business travel during the peak summer months in most markets as many of those passengers are on vacation.

That's why you often see discounted business class fares during those periods to help fill seats that would otherwise be empty. Or carriers overbook Y class and do a lot of upgrading.

[Edited 2010-05-29 17:24:10]

User currently offlineworldtraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 3948 times:

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 9):
Corporate traffic is not seasonal, though. DL must be relying on quite a bit of summer break VFR and tourists to fill the planes.

correct.. but the markes couldn't exist solely on corporate traffic.....so you have to carry lots of tourist traffic and that is very seasonal.

The whole notion of comparing the performance of US and Eastern European carriers is a bit of a stretch anyway.... you can compare carriers from some regions but DL (or UA) vs just about any of the Eastern European carriers is pretty close to night and day in most aspects of aviation... far easier to compare western European or East Asian to US carriers from a financial standpoint... but load factor is meaningless for Eastern European vs US carriers because everything including their financial structures to fares is so different.


User currently offlinepanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4792 posts, RR: 25
Reply 12, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3714 times:
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Quoting OA412 (Reply 6):
I didn't see DLs numbers for JFK-KBP listed.

Stats listed were for November 2009. DL made KBP seasonal last year so the nonstops did not operate in Nov. It will remain seasonal again this year (so far). JFK-KBP is often oversold in Y during spring/summer but the J loads are almost always light.

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 1):
Some have rumored that DL's JFK-BUD flights will be getting cut,

It looks like JFK-BUD will be going seasonal this year. Supposed to return late March 2011 (so far).


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16691 posts, RR: 51
Reply 13, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3605 times:

Quoting DanVS (Thread starter):
UA IAD DME 61,4%

This route will probably move to EWR with the merger.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineBalkantoDelta From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 33 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3388 times:

Numbers look good. IM surprised that Aeroflot is not doing better than the numbers indicated above. Speaking of EU traffic, I wish Bulgaria Air would start that SOF-JFK route thats been rumored.

User currently offlinelaca773 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 3945 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 2389 times:
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Quoting panamair (Reply 12):

It looks like JFK-BUD will be going seasonal this year. Supposed to return late March 2011 (so far).

I hope DL will bring it back next Spring. BUD is a difficult market as we saw with MA as they struggled but then again, they have a magnitude of issues and long haul was the major one until they discontinued all of it.
I don't see AA going into this market. They are very conservative when it comes to starting new routes and looking at how DL has done in this market, AA will stay away from it even with MA in OneWorld.
Thoughts?

I know LO does rather well but was quite surprised to see them at the very top. Like MA, they have many problems and obstacles. They are a prime buy out, merger target. I'd like to see Sky Team purchase LO, upgrade their fleet and start their hard and soft inflight products from scratch as what they have on offer is dismal to put it nicely.

Are DL's numbers on JFK-SVO better than SU's because DL mainly attracts Americans going to, or transiting through SVO on their SkyTeam Partner, SU and vice versa on the SVO-JFK route?

I was pleasantly surprised to see SVO-LAX to be #3 in the U.S.-Russia market. SU was planning on upgauging their LAX market to a 332 and then decided against it, I assume, most likely due to the remarkable economic problems in the U.S. and California. Hopefully we'll see the 332 in the LAX market in the not too far future. I don't see SU upgrading the 763s as they won't be around for much longer.

How in the world is SQ keeping their IAH-DME-SIN-DME-IAH routes alive? Are the yields that high? Is the majority of the traffic on this route to DME/SIN premium and Y goes out extremely light, similar to KE's LAX-GRU-LAX market?

UA seems to be getting by on their IAD-DME route. Will we see this go seasonal?


User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 16934 posts, RR: 48
Reply 16, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2313 times:

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 1):
Some have rumored that DL's JFK-BUD flights will be getting cut, but these numbers indicate rather decent performance during even the low season.
Quoting OA412 (Reply 6):
I didn't see DLs numbers for JFK-KBP listed.

Both BUD and KBP are going seasonal again, with the former being reduced YOY and the latter maintaining the same schedule as last year.

Quoting worldtraveler (Reply 8):
DOT revenue information indicates that KBP is DL's 2nd best performing eastern Europe city behind SVO

That's not saying much, seeing as it's going seasonal, and the average fare is pretty dismal



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 17, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2268 times:

Quoting laca773 (Reply 15):
Quoting panamair (Reply 12):

It looks like JFK-BUD will be going seasonal this year. Supposed to return late March 2011 (so far).

I hope DL will bring it back next Spring. BUD is a difficult market as we saw with MA as they struggled but then again, they have a magnitude of issues and long haul was the major one until they discontinued all of it.
I don't see AA going into this market. They are very conservative when it comes to starting new routes and looking at how DL has done in this market, AA will stay away from it even with MA in OneWorld.
Thoughts?

Hi laca773.... 

With JFK-BUD both being OneWorld hubs, I think MA could potentially make it work......I could see MA flying to JFK again.



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlinelaca773 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 3945 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 2169 times:
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Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 17):

With JFK-BUD both being OneWorld hubs, I think MA could potentially make it work......I could see MA flying to JFK again.

Hi Jacobin777   ,

I agree with you. It'll take sometime and work to get MA up to par where they can operate BUD-JFK efficiently and in turn make a profit which as we know, has not happened in a very long time hence, they pulled out of the market. I think BA could help them achieve this


User currently offlineUnited787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2641 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 2048 times:

Doesn't AA fly ORD-DME?

User currently offlineWROORD From United States of America, joined Mar 2009, 915 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 1992 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 7):
EU data for each of the 3 years through 2008 (latest available) shows Latvia as the 4th poorest of the 27 EU countries based on GNP per capita. Only Poland, Bulgaria and Romania are lower. Latvia and Poland are just about equal.

As we all know a lot has happened since 2008 - Greece being the last example...


User currently offlinelaca773 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 3945 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 1984 times:
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Quoting United787 (Reply 19):
Doesn't AA fly ORD-DME?

Not anymore, United787. It became a fatality last year. Where have you been   ?


User currently offlineWROORD From United States of America, joined Mar 2009, 915 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 1967 times:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 17):
With JFK-BUD both being OneWorld hubs, I think MA could potentially make it work......I could see MA flying to JFK again.

Would be nice but very unrealistic. Most connecting pax are going via LHR or MAD and Hungary does not have enough local traffic to support this route - DLs loads being a prime example.


User currently offlineUnited787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2641 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 1917 times:

Quoting laca773 (Reply 21):
Not anymore, United787. It became a fatality last year. Where have you been

Under a rock! I swore I saw an AA advertisement in Chicago for it's Moscow flight recently, must have been an old ad!


User currently offlineWROORD From United States of America, joined Mar 2009, 915 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 1724 times:

Quoting United787 (Reply 23):
Under a rock! I swore I saw an AA advertisement in Chicago for it's Moscow flight recently, must have been an old ad!

It must have been on the "L". Some purple line cars still have AA add saying Paris, London, Shanghai, Moscow.


User currently offlineFlylot From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 186 posts, RR: 0
Reply 25, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 1693 times:

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 1):
Very impressive, although we all know this is primarily low-yielding VFR traffic - very few wealthy leisure travelers or biz traffic on these flights.

thats right Poland's at the top baby! proves we are at the best at packing ourselves into a sardine can for 9 hours!



"In Soviet Russia, airplane flies on you"
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