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Allegiant Cancelling HGR  
User currently offlineFATFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2001, 5821 posts, RR: 28
Posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 6940 times:

Allegiant announced it is cancelling Hagerstown to Orlando as of July 19. They are citing low demand.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/busin...own-060510-20100604,0,986376.story


"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
35 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3770 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 6885 times:

Competition from WN and FL at BWI must have dented G4's HAG loads tremendously. Heck, G4 was offering $29.99 fares to SFB recently. You don't see that often unless the flight is new.

Will Cape Air, the lone airline at HAG, survive there?



"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4301 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 6786 times:
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In the Maryland counties east of Hagerstown, many don't even know the service exists. And in local media outlets -- even the Internet -- there is absolutely no chatter or publicity about the flights.

Yet, in the narrow sliver of western Maryland where the Hagerstown area is -- Maryland, Ohio, western Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia are only a couple of miles apart. There *is* a market there, so someone out there is not doing their prep work.


User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4301 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 6753 times:
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Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 1):
Heck, G4 was offering $29.99 fares to SFB recently.



I was just out visiting my cousin in Monterey California (Naval Postgraduate School) and they've just lost *their* Allegiant service.

Allegiant was only flying out of there two days a week -- and for as little as $9.99 for the first seat sold on a flight. But American Eagle dropped their ticket prices to Allegiant's levels and stole all the customers.

In the end, it was frequency of service that won out over price.


User currently offlineKcrwFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2004, 3830 posts, RR: 7
Reply 4, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 6665 times:

Allegiant should have gone to MRB. They'd thrive there...

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 3):
But American Eagle dropped their ticket prices to Allegiant's levels and stole all the customers.

Seriously? A legacy matched G4?


User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3770 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 6641 times:

Quoting KcrwFlyer (Reply 4):
Seriously? A legacy matched G4?

Happened when NW launched vacation routes to LAS with daily flights from the Plains states to "beat G4" under their "heartland strategy" 4-5 years ago, too, just to drive G4 off the routes. Not sure on which routes G4 survived the NW challenge.



"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
User currently offlineFATFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2001, 5821 posts, RR: 28
Reply 6, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 6635 times:

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 3):
I was just out visiting my cousin in Monterey California (Naval Postgraduate School) and they've just lost *their* Allegiant service.

Just to clarify Allegiant is still flying MRY-LAS. They dropped service to SAN.



"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
User currently offlineFATFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2001, 5821 posts, RR: 28
Reply 7, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 6569 times:

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 5):
Not sure on which routes G4 survived the NW challenge.

Actually Allegiant outlasted NW on most of them.

NW started flights to LAS from FAR, MSN, FSD, DSM, FNT, and GRR back in late 2005. (Allegiant was at LAN not FNT)

Allegiant dropped MSN fairly quickly, I don't think they could compete with the NW frequent flyer base there.

But NW dropped them all about a year later in late 2006. Allegiant today still operates all but MSN and LAN.

[Edited 2010-06-05 10:57:33]


"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4301 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 6448 times:
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Quoting KcrwFlyer (Reply 4):
Seriously? A legacy matched G4?

Yes.

We did an MRY-SAN-MRY one-day-excursion on May 27th (did Horton Marketplace, Mission Valley, and Fashion Valley - lunch in Point Loma) for $186 per ticket ($93 each way vs. Allegiant's $99)
with a change of aircraft at LAX.

Pretty obviously, MQ is sharking G4 on the route.

[Edited 2010-06-05 12:12:02]

User currently offlinemtnwest1979 From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 2473 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 6381 times:
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Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 1):
Will Cape Air, the lone airline at HAG, survive there?

Since its federally subsidized, it'll last until the money dries up. But, if many other Cape Air EAS locales are any indication, seems to be a popular choice.



"If it ain't broke, don't fix it!"
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25432 posts, RR: 86
Reply 10, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 6197 times:
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Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 6):
Just to clarify Allegiant is still flying MRY-LAS. They dropped service to SAN.

Apologies if this is off-topic, FATFlyer, but it isn't worth its own thread,.

Any clues as to why Allegiant SBA-LAS didn't make it?

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlinejeffrey1970 From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 1336 posts, RR: 12
Reply 11, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 5163 times:

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 2):
Yet, in the narrow sliver of western Maryland where the Hagerstown area is -- Maryland, Ohio, western Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia are only a couple of miles apart. There *is* a market there, so someone out there is not doing their prep work.

I live in Western Maryland. I can tell you that there is no market in this area for an airline. The people in this area who do fly do not mind driving to BWI, PIT or IAD. However, the vast majority of people in this area either do not make enough money to fly anywhere, and if they do, many do not want to fly. I have meet a lot of people in this area who think nothing of driving 12 hours or more to Florida.



God bless through Jesus, Jeff
User currently offlineJBAirwaysFan From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1028 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 4838 times:

Low demand?! Last I heard from G4, HGR was having record loads.


In Loving Memory of Casey Edward Falconer; May 16, 1992-May 9, 2012
User currently offlineFATFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2001, 5821 posts, RR: 28
Reply 13, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 4278 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 10):
Any clues as to why Allegiant SBA-LAS didn't make it?

Poor load factors mainly. I understand it averaged somewhere in the 65% range during the year it operated. It never had a single month that exceed 80% LF. Allegiant's LAS operation runs at about 88-90% average LF.

I don't know how ancillary revenues were at SBA but it would have needed to be very high to offset those loads.

Quoting JBAirwaysFan (Reply 12):
Low demand?! Last I heard from G4, HGR was having record loads.

I know they were pulling 80% LF in early 2009 but I haven't seen any HGR numbers in the last 12 to 18 months to know if that dropped.



"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25432 posts, RR: 86
Reply 14, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 4255 times:
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Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 13):
I understand it averaged somewhere in the 65% range during the year it operated. It never had a single month that exceed 80% LF. Allegiant's LAS operation runs at about 88-90% average LF.

Thanks for the reply.

I had heard about the load factors, but I suppose what puzzles me is that SBA didn't work and SMX does. It is only a hop, skip and a jump up the road and I would assume (?) that the Santa Maria flights draw from Santa Barbara, to some extent.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineFATFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2001, 5821 posts, RR: 28
Reply 15, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 4224 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 14):
I had heard about the load factors, but I suppose what puzzles me is that SBA didn't work and SMX does.

SMX ran a little on the low side last year also, but was much better than SBA. I understand SMX was averaging about 80% in the first 9 months of last year. With SBA cancelled it is likely that has improved.



"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25790 posts, RR: 50
Reply 16, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 4195 times:

For SBA I think it was a matter of having alternate flight choices and also being close enough that folks will drive down to LA area and access flights from BUR for example.
SMX is about an hours way up the coast and solely has a United Express link to LAX and I would say is a bit far away for most to drive down to LA from. I mean if you are going to drive to LA from SMX to get to LAS, I'd just drive to Vegas directly.

I think SBA is well aware of the traffic leakage as they even have a compare SBA vs LAX cost link on their website
http://www.flysba.com/?pageID=42

p.s.-might add there is frequent private van and bus service from SBA to LAX that facilitates people accessing flights at LAX, and I suspect the demand must be strong to warrant 4 separate private companies to run such services for many years now.

[Edited 2010-06-05 22:44:44]


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineFATFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2001, 5821 posts, RR: 28
Reply 17, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 4154 times:

Proximity to BUR/LAX/etc is something I wondered but I don't know the SBA market well enough.

SMX also would have easier access for the San Luis Obispo area for Allegiant. There is no LAS service at SBP now.



"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25432 posts, RR: 86
Reply 18, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 4144 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 16):
I think SBA is well aware of the traffic leakage as they even have a compare SBA vs LAX cost link on their website
http://www.flysba.com/?pageID=42

Sure, they are. They've made great play on that with Frontier's arrival - "you don't have to go to LAX."

Without wishing to hijack the thread, I understand why American pulled SBA-DFW with 85% load factors but I remain surprised that Allegiant didn't do well there, and I'd be interested to know why.

I doubt it is an easy thing to answer.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlinemy1le From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 181 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3638 times:

I drove by HGR yesterday on my way to PA. It is really sad to see it just sitting. Northrup has a hangar(s) out there to do P-3 work. I really wish they opened up a connector service to IAD or something just to get airlines flying there.

UA (Colgan) fly a SAAB 340 everyday (3 times) from IAD to CHO a 25 minute flight if it during a busy departure bank. It seems crazy that people will pay $500 dollars for that flight. I am sure they would get the same load factor doing a HGR route.


User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3770 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 3007 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 18):

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 16):
I think SBA is well aware of the traffic leakage as they even have a compare SBA vs LAX cost link on their website
http://www.flysba.com/?pageID=42

Sure, they are. They've made great play on that with Frontier's arrival - "you don't have to go to LAX."

FWA, which has its fair share of leakage to IND, has a similar thing on their website: http://www.flyfwa.com/iframe.htm



"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4301 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2943 times:
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Quoting my1le (Reply 19):
UA (Colgan) fly a SAAB 340 everyday (3 times) from IAD to CHO a 25 minute flight if it during a busy departure bank. It seems crazy that people will pay $500 dollars for that flight. I am sure they would get the same load factor doing a HGR route.

The large research-oriented universities -- like University of Virginia in CHO -- spawn peripheral industry. In turn, that spawns the need for air service. Maryland has a different setup with its major research universities *all* located in its Baltimore-Washington population center.

On the other hand, Allegiant's strategy for pricing flights is friendly to an area like Hagertown -- which does have industry -- but has a much lower cost-of-living and salary base than either Baltimore or Washington.


User currently offline02hilliert From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2007, 517 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 2613 times:

I got lucky there then!

I'm flying HGR-SFB on 25th June as part of my US holiday this year.

Really looking forward to flying from HGR. Even more so now that the service will be lost just a couple of weeks after that!



Next Up: Back to the US - Charlotte & Kansas City
User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6793 posts, RR: 32
Reply 23, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 2514 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 18):
Without wishing to hijack the thread, I understand why American pulled SBA-DFW with 85% load factors but I remain surprised that Allegiant didn't do well there, and I'd be interested to know why.

As LAXintl said, proximity to BUR/LAX is probably the key to Allegiant's decision to pull out of SBA. SBA-area travelers had a choice between flying from the more convenient airport -- at a single time on the days when G4 offered service -- or driving a couple of hours down to BUR and flying when they wanted to fly. If G4's time happens to be convenient, then it works. SMX is still farther from BUR & LAX, so passengers are likely to put up with somewhat more inconvenience to avoid the drive.

The success of failure of service from smaller airports on the periphery of areas served by much, much larger airports will often turn on how the value of service at the "convenient" airport compares with the value of service at the more distant airport. Are less optimal flight times, (often) higher prices, and (often) a need to connect counterbalanced by a much shorter drive, cheaper parking, and a user-friendly airport experience? And can the airlines offering service make a profit?

As others have said, passengers around HGR are most likely just opting to drive over to BWI since there are far more flights available at competitive fares. G4-type service to spoke markets on the edge of major metro areas will likely be hit-or-miss, especially with the variable of how well the traffic drives ancillary revenue.


User currently offlineFATFlyer From United States of America, joined May 2001, 5821 posts, RR: 28
Reply 24, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 2449 times:

Some numbers I've heard from the Central Coast indicate passenger counts on all airlines fell more in SBA and SLO counties than in my area which was hit harder by the recession. That may be another reason for G4's cut.

Maybe someone has the actual SBA decline number but I've been told overall SBA passenger counts on all airlines were running about 10-15% lower last year before Allegiant cut the route in Sept. To compare, FAT was down about - 3.7% last year.

SMX passenger counts were also down last year. It had lower than system average load factors for Allegiant too but not as low as SBA. SMX had also been a station longer and had already seen the addition of a second destination (AZA).

So the overall passenger decline might be part of the puzzle also along with proximity to BUR/LAX.



"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
25 mariner : Thanks, FATFlyer - that makes some sense to me. Obviously, I understand the attractions of LAX/BUR, but there seems - to me - to be more to it than t
26 LAXintl : Yes SBA traffic dropped in 2009 vs 2008. Total passenger volume in 2009 was about 752,000 while in 2008 was just about 818,000. The SBA heyday was rea
27 ScottB : It's not too surprising to me when you consider that speed limits on the Ventura Freeway went from 55 mph to 65 mph in the mid-1990's; that effective
28 Flytravel : I wonder if Allegiant being in Hagerstown was similar to the Prime Outlets in Hagerstown, to attract a base from the western suburbs/exurbs of Baltim
29 FATFlyer : A little bit on both coasts I think, but I don't know how much to assign to route decisions and how much to the weak economy. The length of the recess
30 Post contains images diverdave : You mean the speed limit that nobody paid attention to anyway? Not to mention the increased congestion on the US 101 and I-405 freeways. I believe th
31 mariner : Do we know what the load factors are for HGR, and if size of aircraft played into it? As we saw with Sun Country at BKG, a 60% l/f may be low on a 73
32 LAXintl : Here you go. Per DOT. Latest month avail is Nov09 HGR-SFB Nov09: 80.2% Oct09: 85.3% Sep09: missing Aug09:85.5% Jul09: 79.5% Jun09: 88.2% May09: 85.4%
33 mariner : Thanks. That doesn't seem too shabby. As usual, much more to it than the l/f, I guess. mariner
34 vin2basketball : averaged around 87% for the year of 2009, ranged from 83-95% per month
35 Post contains links FATFlyer : This article was out of the Hagerstown area. I think we can read some things about the revenue side in this quote: http://www.herald-mail.com/?cmd=dis
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