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Emirates To Take Another 32 A380's Part 2  
User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3432 posts, RR: 26
Posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 21691 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

This is a continuation thread on this topic. Part 1 can be found here: Emirates To Take Another 32 A380's Part 2


Rgds

SA7700


When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
229 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineEBGflyer From Denmark, joined Sep 2006, 970 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 21471 times:

Exciting news from the aviation world. I just can't fathom where all those A380's would fly.

Perhaps someone could make a list of tentative routes and frequencies (maybe in a separate thread) to see if they can find use for 90 of those big birds.



Future flights: CPH-BRU; CPH-NRT-MNL; MNL-PVG-CPH; CPH-LAX
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12321 posts, RR: 35
Reply 2, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 21457 times:

Just a few random thoughts to throw into the cargo hold, some to summarise what we discussed in the first thread:

- Every time people have said EK has gone too far or is being overambitious, it's proven the doubters wrong
- In placing an order such as this, however, has it posed a threat too much for flag carriers in various countries - India, China, Australia - to name three - where their growth can be curtailed through a refusal to negotiate new bilaterals/grant new rights?
- How will other regional carriers - EY and QR in particular - respond
- A huge logistical challenge - pilot training and maintaining service standards
- Will they all be delivered as -800s, or will a significant number of orders be converted to -900s. Will they even operate all ninety at one time, with some of the current fleet being rolled over within the next few years, particularly as newer acft with lower OEW and higher MTOW , become available?
- As ambitious as this growth may appear, does EK have any choice BUT to expand aggressively, given the growth plans of its neighbours?
- What effect will this have on the rest of the EK fleet and its shape in the coming years? As A380s take over routes currently operated by 77Ws, these will take over 330 routes, leaving these aircraft looking for new destinations ... will we see more significant growth in the EK network in the coming years ... can it do otherwise? Significant network expansion will be vital to support this growth.

[Edited 2010-06-10 04:41:58]

User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 21468 times:

I believe it is so funny that everyone is asking: "Oh dear, where will they fly all these planes?"

Take a guess. EK already flies the first ten to:

LHR
CDG
BKK
YYZ
SYD-AKL
ICN
JED

with JED probably being mainly a gap-filler between two long-haul flights.

In addition to adding planes to these destinations, EK will fly them to places where they already have two or three flights a day (it is EK, so we are talking A332 or bigger) and places that have a lot of potential due to their size. EK still doesn't fly to every city they would like to fly to.

My guesses for the next 31 EK A380 destinations are (not in that order, of course):

ATH
PEK
BHX
CPT
DAC
DUS
FRA
HKG
IST
JNB
KHI
KUL
LGW
MLE
MAN
MNL
MRU
MEL
DME
BOM
MUC
NBO
JFK
KIX
FCO
SFO
PVG
SIN
THR
NRT
ZRH

plus a bunch of regional gap-fillers like KWI, DOH, BAH.


User currently offlinexanda From UK - England, joined Apr 2010, 10 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 21081 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 3):
BHX

I really hope so, was really quite special when we had one come in last year for the anniversary. I live about a mile out on 15 so would love to see this go over my house everyday.

Heres hoping!

Alex.


User currently offlinepeanuts From Netherlands, joined Dec 2009, 1411 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 21025 times:

Why are we all "assuming" EK will actually fly all these machines themselves? This order may very well have been a tactic by EK to gain access to the 80 million market in Germany.

EK just made a huge bet. "Open up the European secondary market to us or else..."
They can worry about the usage of aircraft or selling them later on...They may also fly them. Either scenario: EK is in control.

Once bi-lateral negotiations start this order may come into play. If European governments don't want to open up secondary markets to EK, they may have to cancel some 380's.

Get the picture?


Question Conventional Wisdom. While not all commonly held beliefs are wrong…all should be questioned.
User currently offlineUALWN From Andorra, joined Jun 2009, 2654 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 20940 times:

Quoting peanuts (Reply 5):
Get the picture?

Actually I don't. So EK may cancel some 380 orders down the line and lose the ~20% deposit. And European governments should care, why exactly?



AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/AB6/310/319/320/321/330/340/380
User currently offlinepeanuts From Netherlands, joined Dec 2009, 1411 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 20876 times:

Quoting UALWN (Reply 6):
European governments should care, why exactly?

They build them...They want to build them.

You realize EK is trying to gain access to Germany's secondary market right? LH is lobbying their government against granting such requests.


Question Conventional Wisdom. While not all commonly held beliefs are wrong…all should be questioned.
User currently offlinepeanuts From Netherlands, joined Dec 2009, 1411 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 20841 times:

A.net is not letting me link the appropriate article.

google: wall street journal emirates airbus

the article should appear



Question Conventional Wisdom. While not all commonly held beliefs are wrong…all should be questioned.
User currently offlineUALWN From Andorra, joined Jun 2009, 2654 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 20825 times:

Quoting peanuts (Reply 7):
They build them...They want to build them.

Airbus builds them.

Quoting peanuts (Reply 7):
You realize EK is trying to gain access to Germany's secondary market right?

I do. So?



AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/AB6/310/319/320/321/330/340/380
User currently offlineUALWN From Andorra, joined Jun 2009, 2654 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 20789 times:

Quoting peanuts (Reply 8):
the article should appear


"Dubai's Emirates Airline ordered 32 additional Airbus A380 superjumbo jetliners, and deliberately announced the $11.5 billion deal in Germany's capital to fight a trade battle with flag carrier Deutsche Lufthansa AG."
Oh please. I guess TAM, Finnair and Germania also announced their new Airbus orders in Berlin in order to fight with Germany about something... Talk about sour grapes...



AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/AB6/310/319/320/321/330/340/380
User currently offlinepeanuts From Netherlands, joined Dec 2009, 1411 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 20707 times:

There are no sour grapes I think. Absolutely not.
EK's growth will serve as a wake up call to many European carriers. A much needed wake up call.

To ignore the politics behind it would be, dare I say, ignorant and naive at best

If you read the full article it becomes clear LH is lobbying their government to stop granting more route authorizations to EK.

It's just business. Both for EK and LH.

If countries won't let EK fly the planes to their cities, EK may have to reconsider.

No sour grapes about that.



Question Conventional Wisdom. While not all commonly held beliefs are wrong…all should be questioned.
User currently onlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 11918 posts, RR: 25
Reply 12, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 20552 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 2):
In placing an order such as this, however, has it posed a threat too much for flag carriers in various countries - India, China, Australia - to name three - where their growth can be curtailed through a refusal to negotiate new bilaterals/grant new rights?

Add LH/Germany to the list.

Quoting UALWN (Reply 10):

"Dubai's Emirates Airline ordered 32 additional Airbus A380 superjumbo jetliners, and deliberately announced the $11.5 billion deal in Germany's capital to fight a trade battle with flag carrier Deutsche Lufthansa AG."
Oh please. I guess TAM, Finnair and Germania also announced their new Airbus orders in Berlin in order to fight with Germany about something... Talk about sour grapes...

Why do you link EK's position to TAMs? They have nothing to do with each other.

Quoting peanuts (Reply 11):
EK's growth will serve as a wake up call to many European carriers. A much needed wake up call.

It is interesting.

Somehow hundreds of 777s, A330s and A350s didn't wake anyone up.

Now another 38 A380s on top of the existing 42 does?

Doubtful.

There's little the flag carriers can do.

We have a saying here, "if you can't beat them, join them!".

But the flag carriers can't beat EK at its game and they can't join them either.

Just like the last orders, in a short while the buzz will die down and EK will just keep up the pressure for more access and more destinations.

It seems they have a lot of patience and a lot of money on their side.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineUALWN From Andorra, joined Jun 2009, 2654 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 20443 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 12):
Why do you link EK's position to TAMs? They have nothing to do with each other.

Because both announced their orders in Germany. Look, EK has ordered 32 additional 380s, fine. They may try to use this as leverage to get access to Germany. Fine. But I don't think they will get any more leverage by announcing the order in Germany.

Quoting peanuts (Reply 11):
If countries won't let EK fly the planes to their cities, EK may have to reconsider.

Of course! And then, they may cancel some of the orders, for 380s or for 77Ws or for 333s or all of them. Penalties may have to be payed. Airbus's and, probably to a lesser extend, Boeing's balance sheets may suffer. But I don't think it will be the end of the world for any of them. Will any threat like this from EK swing Germany's current position: "A spokesman for Germany's federal transport ministry said the government has no plans to allow Emirates to fly to more than four cities"? I doubt it. Will the fact that the order has been announced in Germany swing in any way Germany's current position? No.



AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/AB6/310/319/320/321/330/340/380
User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 20401 times:

Quoting peanuts (Reply 5):
Get the picture?

To be honest: No. EK wants to fly those planes themselves, not to lease them to others.

Quoting UALWN (Reply 10):


"Dubai's Emirates Airline ordered 32 additional Airbus A380 superjumbo jetliners, and deliberately announced the $11.5 billion deal in Germany's capital to fight a trade battle with flag carrier Deutsche Lufthansa AG."
Oh please. I guess TAM, Finnair and Germania also announced their new Airbus orders in Berlin in order to fight with Germany about something... Talk about sour grapes...

EK clearly wanted to make a statement both by announcing the order in Berlin (could have waited for Farnborough) and by sending the A380 to SXF, an airport that they don't serve commercially, because LH pressure keeps the German government from allowing it. Talk about fair competition.

It was a show of force.


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Augustas Didzgalvis



There is a picture of the LH A380 standing face to face with the EK A380 above. You can find it on the page that usually has better plane pictures than a.net

Quoting Revelation (Reply 12):
Now another 38 A380s on top of the existing 42 does?

32 on top of 58


User currently offlinejustloveplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 1002 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 20340 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 2):
- As ambitious as this growth may appear, does EK have any choice BUT to expand aggressively, given the growth plans of its neighbours?

My thinking too. I was thinking this is more about Dubai, Inc. than EK standalone, which in essence is "if you build it, they will come". World's tallest building, offshore palm tree shaped Islands, 6 runway airport, 90 A380's......


User currently offlineUALWN From Andorra, joined Jun 2009, 2654 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 20338 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 14):
EK clearly wanted to make a statement both by announcing the order in Berlin (could have waited for Farnborough) and by sending the A380 to SXF, an airport that they don't serve commercially, because LH pressure keeps the German government from allowing it.

But this is going to change nothing! The order itself may have a leverage value. Sending a 380 to a show in Berlin has no pressure value whatsoever.



AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/AB6/310/319/320/321/330/340/380
User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 20246 times:

Quoting UALWN (Reply 16):
But this is going to change nothing! The order itself may have a leverage value. Sending a 380 to a show in Berlin has no pressure value whatsoever.

But in clearly sends a strong message:

-We buy your products
-We come to your airshow
-LH is not the only one with A380s
-Ask yourselves, why do we not come regularly to a Berlin airport?

=> Now give us what we want.

I believe the German government needs to urgently grant Emiraty carriers (EK and EY) more rights to come to Germany and to fly to any German airport they like, be it TXL, SXF, NUE, STR, CGN - any.

LH made a nice publicity stunt by flying the German team to South Africa, but EK made an even better one by making this massive order and their A380 appearence right in the capital of Germany, the home of LH.


User currently offlineUALWN From Andorra, joined Jun 2009, 2654 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 20161 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 17):
LH made a nice publicity stunt by flying the German team to South Africa, but EK made an even better one by making this massive order and their A380 appearence right in the capital of Germany, the home of LH.

Err, if you had to guess which one of these publicity stunts had more impact on your average fellow countryman, which one would you guess?



AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/AB6/310/319/320/321/330/340/380
User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 20047 times:

Quoting UALWN (Reply 18):
Err, if you had to guess which one of these publicity stunts had more impact on your average fellow countryman, which one would you guess?

Probably LH's, but don't underestimate EK with their role as the airline of the world cup and their publicity among frequent flyers and travellers. The average German flies once a year to PMI, neither with LH nor EK.

Besides, EK could hardly have flown the German team to South Africa. LH has some contract with the DFB (Football association).


User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12321 posts, RR: 35
Reply 20, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 20045 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 17):
I believe the German government needs to urgently grant Emiraty carriers (EK and EY) more rights to come to Germany and to fly to any German airport they like, be it TXL, SXF, NUE, STR, CGN - any.

LH made a nice publicity stunt by flying the German team to South Africa, but EK made an even better one by making this massive order and their A380 appearence right in the capital of Germany, the home of LH.

It seems very like "dog in a manger" behaviour by LH, in the sense that it is very unlikely to operate from TXL/BER to DXB, but objects to anyone else (specifically EK) doing so.

However, given that both Sheikh Makhtoum and Chancellor Merkel were present, it would surprise me very much if they did not have a private chat and if this matter were not raised; presumably she will be able to motivate the necessary officials in the German civil aviation ministry.


User currently onlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 11918 posts, RR: 25
Reply 21, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 19950 times:

Quoting UALWN (Reply 13):
Because both announced their orders in Germany. Look, EK has ordered 32 additional 380s, fine. They may try to use this as leverage to get access to Germany. Fine. But I don't think they will get any more leverage by announcing the order in Germany.

The fact that it's being discussed in the press shows that the tactic is working.

In such a situation, every little bit helps.

And Frau Merkel was at the ceremony announcing the order.

Clearly she was taking in everything that was going on, no?

Not sure if she would have made the trip to Farnborough.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 14):
Quoting Revelation (Reply 12):
Now another 38 A380s on top of the existing 42 does?

32 on top of 58

Thanks for the correction!



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineUALWN From Andorra, joined Jun 2009, 2654 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 19815 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 19):
The average German flies once a year to PMI, neither with LH nor EK.

Only once a year? So those Germans in Mallorca at all times are all different people?? Jokes aside, I imagine people in Germany care rather more about the national soccer team than about an air fair.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 20):
presumably she will be able to motivate the necessary officials in the German civil aviation ministry.

Assuming she agrees with the proposition of opening Germany to EK...



AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/AB6/310/319/320/321/330/340/380
User currently offlineA342 From Germany, joined Jul 2005, 4675 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 19772 times:

Quoting UALWN (Reply 22):
Jokes aside, I imagine people in Germany care rather more about the national soccer team than about an air fair.

And I imagine the EK order is waaaay more important to politics than the LH flight. See the point now?



Exceptions confirm the rule.
User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 19759 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 20):
It seems very like "dog in a manger" behaviour by LH, in the sense that it is very unlikely to operate from TXL/BER to DXB, but objects to anyone else (specifically EK) doing so.

However, given that both Sheikh Makhtoum and Chancellor Merkel were present, it would surprise me very much if they did not have a private chat and if this matter were not raised; presumably she will be able to motivate the necessary officials in the German civil aviation ministry.

AB is starting TXL-DXB in November. They are not EK, but they might feed EK planes going to India, SE Asia or Australia.


25 mikey72 : I don't know. I wish them all the luck in the world I really do but I just can't see it. The figures just don't add up. What's going to happen is tha
26 hawkercamm : EKs A380 long haul routes by 2020. 88 Destinations allowing 2 spare A380s!! ( Maintenance, backup, etc) Assuming an average 2 sectors per day per airc
27 YULWinterSkies : Yes, but governments don't really want to play against Airbus, as they are a significant contributor to Europe's economy and jobs. So, this idea that
28 seabosdca : I have no doubt that EK is thinking something like what you describe. And there is no way (for example) that there will be the demand to fill 3 A380s
29 klwright69 : Honestly I do not understand... I live in the UAE. Usually I go out of AUH but I also look at DXB. I NEVER NEVER EVER fly on EK. They are very expensi
30 LAXDESI : Thanks for the effort. I would add HYD to your India list.
31 Viscount724 : I don't understand all the comments implying that EK is uncompetitive in the German market. They already serve almost all regions of Germany with FRA
32 hawkercamm : The reason is that world air travel (long-haul) is growing by 5% per year. 5% means double in 15 years. Simple. Both Airbus' and Boeing' Global Marke
33 seabosdca : All of their planned acquisition will considerably more than double their capacity within 7-10 years, not 15.
34 Post contains links Revelation : Aviation Week is reporting a similar view: Not very subtle, showing up on an A380 in Berlin, and signing a $11.5B deal for 38 A380s with Mrs Merkel in
35 Post contains images LAXDESI : A388 will come in handy for many slot constrained airports. On my recent LH FRA-LAX flight, I read in the inflight magazine that A388 was one way for
36 hawkercamm : Lets say Middle-East, China and Indian growth will be 6-7% and Europe and North American growth lower to give an average world wide growth of 5%. 6-7
37 ER757 : It's simple as long as the trend continues. I'm not saying it wont, but let's keep in mind a lot can happen in the next ten years. We've seen how wor
38 hawkercamm : I believe that for people with the Stars and the Stars and Strips in their flags EK are going to bring a positive benefit to the arrival economy. I be
39 sunrisevalley : seems to me the biggest winner is the GE/PW GP7200 . They will be a long way ahead of RR at this point in time.
40 Rabenschlag : Maybe they prepare for the time when everybody except the arabian peninsula has run out of oil, so that they will become the flight service for all pe
41 Post contains links and images allegro : Congratulations to EK and Airbus! What an amazing order! Lets hope we see this bird in the sky for many years to come More and more, I am amazed at th
42 seabosdca : That's assuming nothing goes wrong during that time and there are no down years; growth certainly was not 5% in 2008 or 2009. And even 6%-7% per year
43 BluemoonUK : Im pretty sure they wont offer a scheduled service to Birmingham as the runway isnt long enough for a fully loaded A380 to safely take off.The earlier
44 UALWN : Did you read was I was replying to? I guess not. The original poster claimed the EK's "publicity stunt" (announcing the order in Germany) was better
45 Thorben : It is a pain to go from Berlin to HAM (airport), let alone FRA or DUS. We have airports here, EK wants to serve one, so let them do it.
46 ikramerica : Not in the eyes of the doubters, only in the eyes of those who don't have doubts. They have taken all of 10, TEN, A380s. Please tell me how they have
47 Revelation : Really? I have a hard time seeing any politician not being impacted in their decision making by an $11.5B business deal that secures 20,000 jobs. Now
48 Stitch : Very roughly, EK's currently delivered fleet is about 47,000 seats. The 80 A380-800s still on order are roughly 40,000 seats and the 37 77Ws (assuming
49 UALWN : Nooooooooo, have you read the thread? The "publicity stunt" refers to the fact that they announced the order in Germany, bringing in an EK 380, etc.
50 eicvd : But by 2020 or whenever BHX could be able to handle a fully loaded A380. Im sure alot of airports on that list cant handle the whalejet at the moment
51 cosmofly : The subsidies enabled Airbus to build the A380 which in turn enabled EK to buy a truck load of them at extremely good price and run them like LCC. EK
52 Post contains images EPA001 : Thanks for the numbers Stitch. It does not look far fetched if you look at it this way, and if you take a +20 years unrivalled success story into acc
53 UALWN : They are actually repayable launch-aid loans. Subsidies are what the states of Washington and North Carolina provide to Boeing. What would those dino
54 aircellist : I would see them going to YYC before coming in YUL... I'd be happy to be wrong, though!
55 Post contains images A342 : The runway is long eough for a flight to DXB, even with full payload. That one-off flight might have had such a light load because there was no long-
56 UALWN : Yes, I do. If you think Merkel is going to change her mind about letting EK fly to Berlin simply because EK chose Berlin to announce the order, well,
57 Post contains images A342 : Obviously, it's not that simple, but the message was very clear to the German authorities. You are 100% correct.
58 Post contains images UALWN : I knew this was coming.
59 Asiaflyer : Its time to put some pressure on LH. Flying long haul 2010 in 747s without PTVs in economy class shows how outdated LH is. If people prefers to fly E
60 Post contains images Stitch : Or 50 787-9s, for that matter.
61 MillwallSean : They might have chosen Berlin to send a reinforce their wish for a more liberal bilateral with Germany, but we here read way to much into it. the orde
62 Post contains images Jacobin777 : By the time EK gets number 60, the first few in their fleet will probably be gone. I've been flying with EK since they were a smaller carrier-in fact
63 Stitch : Would they want to get rid of frames with only five or six years of service on them?
64 Post contains images Jacobin777 : When would they be getting #60? I thought it would be a while from now.... p.s-I'm off for the evening from Chi'town..
65 gemuser : All 90 delivered by 2017. A380 production sold out to 2015. Gemuser
66 Post contains images astuteman : Perhaps worth recalling we are already IN the "down years". We must be just about at the bottom of one of the biggest crises in Aviation history, and
67 Post contains images mariner : Given the remarkable growth of the airline in just twenty five years, I think it is not only possible but entirely probable. I've stayed out of this
68 Post contains links hawkercamm : The A380 take off run at MTOW is 9020ft. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380 BHX is 8,527ft. However since BHX-DXB is only 3029 nm the A380 will
69 GBan : Agreed - and thanks for collecting the numbers!
70 Post contains links ramzi : Nice read by FlightBlogger: The curious case of 90 A380s
71 jfklganyc : I honestly don't know where they are going to fly these planes. Or I should say the quantity of these planes. I understand that Dubai was a rapidly gr
72 TravelAVNut : This dead horse has been beaten so often it is almost horse-paté. From what I understand 80% to 90% of EK passengers are connecting through DXB to a
73 gemuser : If you really want to understand EKs business plan, go and stand in EKs main terminal in DXB, opposite when transit pax exit security into the main d
74 panais : Why everybody assumes that Emirates will be flying out of DXB only? There is nothing that stops them from setting up a new airline in London and fly f
75 Stitch : Don't kind yourself. I could fill this forum with examples of the exact same benefits given by the governments of the United Kingdom, France, Germany
76 UALWN : I know you could. What I wrote was true, but not necessarily the whole truth... However, as astuteman pointed out, I think such a reply was needed...
77 CYatUK : They will need permit to fly to other (non DXB) destinations from any European airport unless they setup an EU registered subsidiary but at the same
78 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Ok, thanks mate.....then it does seem they will have almost all of their A380's in the fleet at the same time.....incredible! From what I've read (in
79 Post contains images TravelAVNut : I do believe I´ve read they are much higher currently (in the 80-90% region), but still trying to find the source.. If it´s indeed much lower, well
80 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Then you might have to be...
81 Post contains links A342 : Here we go: "Why Emirates chose ILA to reveal big A380 deal" http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...e-ila-to-reveal-big-a380-deal.html "While the Duba
82 RedChili : Just to put things into perspective: As far as I can see, exactly 10 years ago Emirates had the following fleet: 3 A300 6 A310 9 A332 9 B772 2 B773 T
83 Jacobin777 : "Laws of large numbers"....
84 justloveplanes : Emirates was being opportunistic in their announcements at ILA, they were there and there was political fodder to be had. I don't believe the magnitu
85 LAXDESI : As others have speculated, EK may have a cancellation clause linked to market access issues in Europe and other parts of the world. Or would they jus
86 Thorben : That's what I have been saying all along.
87 UALWN : So if EK really thinks Merkel can be so easily impressed, it means that Tim Clark shares your opinion about the German government... Really? Is that
88 CMB56 : With this new order are there any open delivery slots even available before the end of 2017 for A380s. Even if an operator wanted to start a fleet of
89 UALWN : Airbus has stated that with this order the 380 is sold out until 2015.
90 Post contains images A342 : Take the "almost" out, then you're right.
91 Viscount724 : It couldn't be majolrity-owned by UAE interests or it wouldn't have any traffic rights.
92 frmrCapCadet : Intel and Microsoft had over a decade of 10% plus (in fact PLUS) growth. But the laws of large numbers caught up with them. But note that MS regularly
93 Post contains links allegro : Excellent articles on Gulf airlines from my favorite (non-aviation) magazine, The Economist: http://www.economist.com/node/16274353?story_id=16274353
94 rolfen : I said it before, beefing up their manufacturing line is a good idea!!
95 Pihero : When one thinks of this order, one cannot but realise that it was written, and is probably the first of many other commitments to fleet (re-) equipmen
96 Post contains links kaitak : Interesting article on the EK strategy in Flight. Clark calls this "measured growth"; given the calculations made above by some posters here, I think
97 Post contains images Stitch : I'm wondering if EK feels the A330-300 is now the proper plane to go forward. Yes, it's a solid regional plane, but they seem to want "capacity, capac
98 LAXDESI : An interesting example from the linked article: The size that Emirates'A380 commitment has grown to now raises a few eyebrows, but Clark uses a simpl
99 seabosdca : Makes it very interesting that they chose to repair A6-ERG. I wonder when the A345 phaseout would actually occur.
100 UALWN : Another "interesting" excerpt from the article: "Much of Emirates' traffic has been siphoned off from Europe's legacy carriers. Europe appears willing
101 justloveplanes : My guess is they have favorable clauses for some (not all) cancellation or ordering 350's or something like that. They've certainly earned that from
102 A342 : IMO we cannot say that these aircraft will replace the A340s. They could also replace their older 777s, or the A350 might be their A340 replacement.
103 LAXDESI : You may be right. Combination of partial A388 cancellation linked to market access, and conversion to A350 with deferred deliveries may be what EK go
104 Pihero : Please define population centers of Asia. You have a strange grasp of geography : As Indonesia is EAST of India, countries that are as close - or clo
105 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I don't see ORD going double daily-especially in the next 7 years. The biggest plane I see EK using is the B77W for now.....but I wouldn't rule out a
106 Revelation : There's a difference between impressed and convinced...
107 Stitch : Well Clark is quoted in the FlightGlobal article as saying the 777-300ER will be one of the replacement planes (along with the A350). He also said th
108 mariner : So when Qantas ordered up to 115 x 787 was that evidence of a bubble in the Australian economy? Not one of those aircraft has been delivered - and so
109 scbriml : It was reported some time ago that it had lapsed without being firmed by Emirates. Personally, I see their long-term fleet ending up something like 1
110 frmrCapCadet : Just about nothing from Asia to North America. Except for the great cities of Western India and from Indonesia there are pretty big doglegs from Asia
111 mariner : That may be. But - again - I don't think that huge original 787 order was evidence of a bubble at Qantas - or was not thought so on a.net. Mostly, th
112 allegro : Hardly the same capacity (in seats ... 90 A380 v. 115 787)) ... plus they were buying for two airlines (QF and JQ) not one ... so not exactly an appl
113 Post contains images mariner : Well - two airlines in name. LOL. And Australia is not as well positioned - geographically - for connecting traffic. No one from India is going to go
114 frmrCapCadet : Mariner - you bought AFTER the bubble burst, good thinking and good timing. Bubbles are created by people buying into record highs. At this point EK i
115 mariner : Apple wasn't a bubble. It was simply the fortunes of corporate war. Mircosoft took a stock market hit from the departure of Bill Gates but it is stil
116 Post contains links and images astuteman : Funnily enough, you could characterise this order as EK "buying after the bubble burst" It seems to escape the attention somewhat that we have just g
117 mikey72 : Why though ? Global economic recovery will centre around the worlds financial hubs all served by great airlines. EK is great if you want a cheap tick
118 Post contains images astuteman : It's not rocket science. If the entire industry overall is expected to make $2.5Bn and EK just posted $1Bn, I'd have said it's pretty much a given th
119 Pihero : Once again, a post that doesn't show any logic : Either a phenomenon is "historical" in a sense that "it's always been like that" or there is a"vastl
120 mikey72 : Don't you think the above is a bit dubious ? EK can tell us what they like but i'm not sure I believe it. That's fascinating and thanks for enlighten
121 mariner : Emirates or Singapore are usually my first choices from here or Australia to the UK. I get a great business class in either and I will almost always
122 XT6Wagon : So... options count as firm orders? When did this happen?
123 Post contains links mariner : The order was - as I said - for "up to" 115 aircraft. It was considered, by most, a "big" order: http://atwonline.com/aircraftengines...s/qantas-drea
124 Post contains images astuteman : Not "could" my friend. That's exactly what we're facing And it's funny, because in the context of EK's growth, the A380 is actually irrelevant. If it
125 Post contains images astuteman : Are you kidding? That order became the full 115 in the minds (and words) of many "boosters" on this forum the moment it was penned. Rgds
126 Post contains links Chiad : http://www.theemiratesgroup.com/engl...ncial_Highlights_tcm409-565494.pdf
127 Chiad : In the article link posted in reply 96 by kaitak I found especially this paragraph intereting Quote: The size that Emirates'A380 commitment has grown
128 Post contains links aviationbuff : Emirates declares war on the world’s flag carriers with order for 32 more A380s http://www.centreforaviation.com/new...with-order-for-32-more-a380s/
129 mikey72 : Not at all, it's the fact that it is EK on its own (up against Star, Sky and Oneworld) from DXB of all places ??[Edited 2010-06-12 03:17:22]
130 TravelAVNut : Again I refer to the map Keesje made in the 1st thread. DXB is potentially the best geographically placed hub to do just that (take on Star, Sky aand
131 fleabyte : last night I saw a Emirates B777-200LR arrive at Garulhos in Sao Paulo. Like about 50 persons got off the flight. So maybe when they get the load fact
132 Post contains images astuteman : For what its worth, the comments were more generally aimed than at you personally. although you did make this comment earlier, which I inferred to be
133 Post contains images astuteman : EK's overall load factor in the last 12 months, carring 27.5m passengers has been 78%. It's always easy to pick one example when the data set is tens
134 mikey72 : Of course they have, they are a young airline 'currently' benefiting from the fact that they compete with relatively 'jurassic' legacy carriers. That
135 Post contains images astuteman : That's fascinating and thanks for enlightening me but time will tell . Rgds
136 TravelAVNut : I am no airline economist, but doesn't advantage grow with size? I´m really curious about how you came to that conclusion. A holiday resort geograph
137 mikey72 : Anywhere is in the middle of the planet... you get that with globes. What's your point ? WHY go from A to B via C when you can just go from A to B ?
138 mikey72 : All the other major players are merging, comsolidating, trimming costs, getting JV's and anti-trust etc......and they all have vast home markets. The
139 Post contains images UALWN : A bubble is created when assets (like tulips, houses or stocks) are traded well above their intrinsic value. They are pyramid schemes. As long as one
140 Post contains images EPA001 : Most probably you are correct my friend. . See the numbers that Stitch posted earlier. They also have a huge number of seats if all the B77W's are de
141 EPA001 : Edit: posted twice due to no forum repsonse.[Edited 2010-06-12 08:33:54]
142 mikey72 : What good does it do ? It just proves my point. The vast majority of the worlds air routes can be done in one sector these days and there's an ever i
143 Larshjort : what if you can't go from A to B? Flying Europe to Australia you ned to stop anyway. EK has reducedmany tris to one stop from europe to australasia.
144 UALWN : There's plenty of routes that can't be flown non-stop. LHR-SYD might be the most famous, but there are many others. Even more relevant, there are man
145 LAXDESI : This certainly has made them attractive for those who like to take stop overs. My wife was able to get LAX-ORD-CDG on United, and then CDG-FRA-MAA on
146 astuteman : Indeed, and there's no arguing. There is an ever-increasing number of non-stops that can be served by an ever-increasing number of aircraft, and this
147 LAXDESI : I am in the same camp. In fact, I like to take a break at the intermediate point on my LAX-India flights. I get to see a new country, and arrive at m
148 mikey72 : I agree. But you talk as if the only option is EK. The three major alliances can get you from anywhere to anywhere right now. The CEO's of LH/BA/SQ/A
149 mariner : Then fine. It's called competition. mariner
150 UALWN : Actually, they can't. The only way I can fly BCN-MEL one stop is with QR, which doesn't belong to any alliance. BCN-SYD one stop? I'm out of luck. An
151 frmrCapCadet : In a manner of speaking. A limited definition of 'bubble'. Once a company becomes a/the major competetor 10% growth becomes less and less unlikely. T
152 UALWN : The only "law of large numbers" I know has to do with how a sample average approaches the true average in the limit of infinite trials. Maybe you mea
153 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I find it quite peculiar that one carrier made 40% of profits all of the carriers in the entire industry....I'm not saying it can't happen....but I f
154 Post contains links mariner : Since this is really about the A380 as much as Emirates, I think this thread is fun: Govt Nixes LH380 Flights Into India (by comorin Jun 12 2010 in Ci
155 gemuser : Of course EK is not the only option, BUT it is often the BEST option, within it targeted geographical area. If it can be the best option often enough
156 frmrCapCadet : In the US it is used to describe rapidly growing businesses. The first several doublings are easier. Subsequent doubling approach unsustainability. A
157 trent1000 : Thanks, Throben. You've compiled an interesting list. I'd suggest also BNE and NGO. There has been major construction at BNE for new A380 gates &
158 N93109 : Don't you think EK will go to IAD at some point? Given the fast growing metro area of in the Baltimore/Washington/Virginia/Maryland metroplex of 8M pe
159 mikey72 : Can you base an airline the size of a future EK on people flying obscure routings ? Don't get me wrong i'm certainly not saying SYD and VCE are obscu
160 Post contains images astuteman : Of course the true picture isn't that simple, because the $2.5Bn overall is summarised, and includes the losses from all those airlines that made the
161 UALWN : I insist: this is not a bubble. In a bubble, which I explained in reply # XX, what goes up fast comes down even faster. Even if EK were to bump again
162 mikey72 : I don't think you can compare FR and WN with EK. Business models, jargon, facts, figures and black and white statistics (especially those put forward
163 Danny : The 2.5B profit of the industry is an expectation for 2010. The Emirates figure relates to 2009 and in that light is even more respectable. Just for
164 Post contains images astuteman : Why on earth not? They're excellent comparisons. Dismissing evidence that counters your viewpoint, purely because it counters you viewpoint is a lose
165 Post contains images PM : I actually think it's rather a good comparison. I don't know much about Southwest but I do remember when easyJet had a couple of second-hand 737-200s
166 gemuser : Mikey72, you are still missing the point! It's connections, connections, connections. On the flight DXB-VCE there were people from eight Indian citie
167 Post contains images mikey72 : Comparing two airlines that 'cart' people about on short-haul hops in markets where nobody else can possibly compete (and prob don't even want to any
168 Post contains images PM : Take out the 'short-haul' and you've described Emirates. Now, be consistent. In #162 you imply that other airlines (but not EK) have 'hard core' to f
169 mikey72 : Oh come on do I really need to list all the trafiic that always generates profit for most of the worlds airlines. There's not one single large global
170 mikey72 : Well if your idea of being 'carted' is a first class suite on Emirates then you're very high maintenance if you don't mind me saying.
171 Post contains images astuteman : It's abundantly clear that EK do not JUST compete on price. They are routinely NOT the cheapest option on a route . There have been numerous examples
172 Post contains images PM : Since rather few of the worlds [sic] airlines aren't actually making profits, yes please. List away! So all those folk flying on SQ are O&D passe
173 Pihero : As that example has been given by one of our posters, are you now getting insulting ? That routing, far from being "wacko" is in fact very close to b
174 Post contains images PM : You have NO IDEA...
175 mikey72 : It's called deregulation I think. Incumbents that had their hands virtually tied behind their backs. I keep trying to tell you, these incumbents will
176 mikey72 : LOL
177 Post contains images EPA001 : I think you underestimate loyalty of the customers. If I may take my own experience and behaviour as a starting point, I will remain flying Star Alli
178 mikey72 : LOL. I'm getting in over my head here. To be honest i'm layed up here with a broken leg and just fancied a good argument ! Good luck to EK !
179 Post contains images PM : Excellent response! That's almost good enough to get you on my RU list. My attitude to A.Net exactly! Hope the leg mends soon!
180 mikey72 : Thanks. I wasn't wasting anyones time. I just think I've lost the argument. I am now an EK convert ![Edited 2010-06-13 04:36:42]
181 PM : Not on my account, I hope? I may be unique on this forum in that I HAVE NEVER FLOWN ON EMIRATES! And if there's ever a danger of my flying on an EK 1
182 Post contains images justloveplanes : I'd like to buy an argument please......(m. palin)
183 Post contains images UALWN : Neither have I. And I would rather ride my bicycle from BCN to SYD that endure their 10-abreast 777s. But people seem to like them, and they make ton
184 Post contains images mikey72 : I'm not suggesting for one nano second that VCE, DXB or SYD are wacko. Or that anyone who flies from VCE to SYD via DXB are wacko. Merely suggesting
185 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ..Great observation friend-the "S-curve" completely slipped my mind! As you mentioned, given EK's massive expansion plans, what will happen once EK s
186 ncfc99 : This seems to be the issue that many people on this site don't seem to understand. There are not that many people going from VCE to SYD on a daily ba
187 mikey72 : No i'm with you now. Flying from A to C,D,E,F,G,H etc via B.
188 frmrCapCadet : Comment on parallels from the US WN, once they got large, are very cautious about growth. They have added NYC (small) and gone back into Denver in a b
189 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Here is a partial EK route structure..One can see how efficient DXB is in connecting many city pairs which was once thought to be not possible via on
190 mariner : Is that the case? It seems to me that Etihad's ambitions are slightly different - their fleet orders are comparatively modest, at least compared with
191 Daysleeper : Your not the only one... I won’t ever fly EK while the Dubai government continues to enforce draconian laws discriminating against women and gays.
192 astuteman : And I think that's the key imponderable - what is the point at which EK "get large"? A decade or so ago would anyone have predicted WN and FR orderin
193 Talaier : I don't think there's space for three carriers, but QR and a merged EK/EY certainly have space for expansion. We will see...
194 Jacobin777 : Ostensibly, EY's latest actions have been to "slow things down" but their order book with of 106 planes (of which >80% are widebody jets) and 104
195 huaiwei : You are certainly not alone, but your absence will not be missed. There are far more people who consider economic survival (and therefore, the price
196 Thorben : That question is justified. EK, EY, and QR all have masses of widebodies on order and are expanding their airports. EK is going to only have widebodi
197 mariner : I assume that some of the present aircraft will be retired, but if Etihad exercise all the options that would give them a fleet of two hundred or so.
198 Post contains links and images rheinwaldner : The plan is expanding something like the Eurocross established by Crossair in Basle to a global scale! What was the Eurocross? Quote from here http:/
199 gemuser : You could in October 2009. Show passport and go thru normal airport security check, then allowed onto the departure level. inside security and Dubai
200 UALWN : How did that work for LX? It's not a loaded question. I actually don't know and would like to.
201 Jacobin777 : To be quite honest mariner I can't recall what EY's "eventual fleet total" is going to be. I did read however that EY's CEO Hogan might leave to beco
202 Post contains links TravelAVNut : Emirates is far from done so it seems... Emiratus hungry for even more A380s Speaking to Flight International in the wake of the recent order for 32 m
203 Post contains images ncfc99 : EK are heading for a long haul LCC business model, with a single fleet type, the A380.
204 Post contains links and images lightsaber : EK will hit their S-curve downturn... But not yet. There are enough routes with growth potential for a bit. As already noted, we're in the down years
205 mdavies06 : Thanks for the illustration and it is interesting that you bought up ATL. I think that really where the centre of the world is is pretty much depende
206 cosmofly : Except that the growth had been mostly the work of 777s and operating a large fleet of A388 is still an unproven biz model.
207 mariner : I'm sympathetic to the "dead tree" part, but if you ever come across a used copy of the book (it's out of print and tough to find) grab it. Written i
208 Jacobin777 : I do agree with your point of view. If you take a look at the map of EK's connections, and what is known about DXB, ostensibly it seems DXB is at the
209 Post contains links and images astuteman : It will indeed. It's interesting to note that they will start to retire the first of their 90 A380's in c. 2020. http://www.flightglobal.com/articles
210 Post contains links mariner : LOL. I guess the most interesting thing to me is how other airlines respond now. The CAPA article says that Emirates has declared war on the world's
211 wsp : I think you read too much into that, the text only says "... it would not retire these early airframes before 2020". Which is merely stating the fact
212 Post contains images allegro : The bubble could be the number of seats. Maybe ... that is the concern. Remember, EK uses one of the world's largest and respected accounting firms t
213 Glareskin : b.) is partially correct with EK but a.) is a little different. What I have learned is that EK offers better prices, give miles to all the big airlin
214 scbriml : I don't think any of EK's A380s are leased (unlike around half their 77W fleet), they're all purchased directly from Airbus.
215 Post contains links wsp : I found at least two EK A380s that are leased: http://www.doricassetfinance.com/en/closed_investments_flugzeug6.html http://www.doricassetfinance.com
216 Post contains images EPA001 : 90 A380-900's maybe? Now that would be something. .
217 Post contains links bwvilla : According to the Aircargo Asia-Pacific magazine/website, Emirates' ambition is causing consternation in the boardrooms of its rival carriers. The (sh
218 scouseflyer : Interesting, AFAICK, EK ordered all but 2 of their birds direct (they originally had 2 to be leased from ILFC but they took those orders over directl
219 Post contains links and images Swallow : Indeed. The WSJ quotes KLM chief Peter Hartman as saying governments may become reluctant to grant EK more slots.
220 TISTPAA727 : No argument here but (regardless of what plane it is) the airline has to fill it to a certain percentage to be profitable. I think the argument back
221 ytz : According to Wikipedia EK has 66 aircraft from the A330, A340, B772 families, 64 from the B773 family with 19 more on order. So when I look at this, I
222 david_itl : All are to be delivered by 2017. So 7 years to get 80 means roughly a annual pattern of deliveries like 11/12/11/12/11/12/11. Probably be nothing lik
223 scbriml : Airbus' O&D spreadsheet, without the latest order included, shows EK having purchased 58 A380. So I was correct in my assertion that they've purc
224 ytz : I stand corrected. Thanks. Any idea though, how many of those would be replacing a 77W or 773? I see a lot of talk on here about what Emirates is buy
225 mdavies06 : I guess a city like YYZ is a good example of what EK sees as a 'virgin' (not VS in this sense) station isn't it - very much underserved currently for
226 Post contains links wsp : The prospect for the investment company http://www.hansatreuhand.de/uploads/...y_Cloud-A380_Emissionsprospekt.pdf says on p71 (in German): "In der Ka
227 scouseflyer : Isn't that what U2 do with a good proportion of thier aircraft?
228 Thorben : They won't retire a single A380 before they have reached their desired maximum capacity. Even in 2020, their oldest A380s will be rather new planes w
229 Post contains images wsp : The first 4 SQ A380s were leased via another issuer (http://www.dr-peters.de) and they have already taken down the sales prospect. So I don't know ho
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