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RUMOR: DL To Leave TOL Again  
User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3770 posts, RR: 2
Posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 6074 times:

This rumor shouldn't shock anyone, but the crew lounge buzz among DL pilots at DTW is that DL/Mesaba will quit flying DTW-TOL as the last SAABs are retired, possibly by the end of this year or early next. The (rumored) reason: The route, already with dismal loads (probably weakening yields, too), wouldn't be profitable on a CR2.

Anyone want to start guessing TOL's pax service outcome 3 years from now? Will G4, or more importantly, Eagle stay; or will TOL be another airport along the lines of LAF: a bunch of gen av (and cargo) traffic but no pax?


"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
22 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3594 posts, RR: 10
Reply 1, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 5966 times:

I remember when TOL had service to DAY, ORD, DTW, PIT, and ATL.

The Saabs are supposed to not be gone from the DL fleet until the end of next year.


User currently offlinejetskipper From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 402 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 5808 times:

How has CAK been able to survive and thrive between one large airport and one hub (PIT and CLE), while TOL is getting pummeled due to it's close proximity to DTW?

User currently offlineTan Flyr From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 1916 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 5724 times:

Quoting jetskipper (Reply 2):
How has CAK been able to survive and thrive between one large airport and one hub (PIT and CLE), while TOL is getting pummeled due to it's close proximity to DTW?

Partly because of location..a very easy drive up I-75 / 275 to DTW..the geography of the catchment area also plays into this.

Metro Toledo does not spread out as much as the various parts of NE ohio..the NE Ohio area just has more potential pax to work with, and that CAK draws local ( Akron/ Canton) traffic that just does not want to drive to CLE or PIT.


User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2948 posts, RR: 30
Reply 4, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 5658 times:

Toledo would have a better chance if DTW had been built up someplace like Warren. DTW is just so convenient.

THe other obvious, huge factor is that CAK succeeded in attracting and supporting low-fare scheduled service, which TOL did not. If AirTran had hung around TOL longer and the local market responded better, it could have shifted local buying patterns enough to turn TOL into Flint South. If metro Detroit's heaviest wealthy suburban business and housing growth were concentrated to the south in the general direction of Toledo, instead of north in the general direction of Flint, that would help, too. No such luck.


User currently offlineCompensateMe From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1250 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 5631 times:

Maybe DL will consider contracting a bus service to retain service between DTW & TOL.

While never scheduled service, NW often substituted a bus to provide service between DTW and multiple cities (including TOL and FNT) throughout much of the 1990s.



Gordo:like this streaming video,Sky magazine,meals for sale at mealtime-make customer satisfaction rank so high at UA
User currently offlineflyCMH From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 2282 posts, RR: 10
Reply 6, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 5606 times:

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
This rumor shouldn't shock anyone, but the crew lounge buzz among DL pilots at DTW is that DL/Mesaba will quit flying DTW-TOL as the last SAABs are retired, possibly by the end of this year or early next. The (rumored) reason: The route, already with dismal loads (probably weakening yields, too), wouldn't be profitable on a CR2.

And we all know how reliable crew speculation is. Besides, even if TOL-DTW were to be on the potential chopping block, that's not to say the airline will leave the market. There's certainly demand to ATL, if DL would wish to persue it. Not only that, but I believe subsidy money for service to New York still exists, which would fit well into Delta's push towards NYC expansion. If anything, now's the time for expansion of the Toledo market by Delta. It's still a well-sized market with a population that is willing to use the local airport if the flights exist. Not only that, but it could play very well into Delta's overall dominance of Southeast Michigan/Northwest Ohio by becoming the dominant player not only in Detroit and Flint, but also Toledo. Flights from Toledo by Delta should complement their Detroit service, not encroach on it. My sincere hope is that Delta sees the value in retaining the market in their network.


User currently offlineATLFlyer323 From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 617 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 5191 times:

Quoting Tan Flyr (Reply 3):
Metro Toledo does not spread out as much as the various parts of NE ohio..the NE Ohio area just has more potential pax to work with, and that CAK draws local ( Akron/ Canton) traffic that just does not want to drive to CLE or PIT.

Exactly. The metro Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Massillon, Youngstown area has a much larger number of people than Toledo. That being said I also have family that lives around Findlay, OH and have flown into TOL many times. I hope some schedules service remains as there are still and ok amount of communities where TOL is more convenient/easier to get to than say Columbus or Detroit.

-Brandon



Everyday, the fluffy temptation of wheat!
User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4607 posts, RR: 23
Reply 8, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5039 times:

An Anti-TOL thread by FWAERJ? Well there is a shocker. lawl

The main thing that hurts TOL over everything else...Spirit. Their ridiculous fare structure has a major impact on the ability for G4 and other airlines to expand. Delta will do what Delta wants to do. They haven't been dedicated to the market for years. If Delta leaves does Eagle follow? Only if the associated operating costs get piled on to them. Otherwise the market is decently high yield for them and they are making money. G4 continues to have a strong following but they are not wanting to expand anymore due to the pricing pressure from Spirit and to a lesser extent WN.

As others have pointed out, TOL's service area struggles with DTW is with in a half hour drive over the northern area of the city. Nothing you can do about that. The region is slow to recover and that is going to reduce the need for air travel in the near term. The airport will need to undergo a reinvention, sort of like what Rockford has done...but again they are in a unique situation being so close to DTW. Could service been redeveloped? Absolutely. 90-95% of the local market is going to DTW right now simply because the flights don't exist. It will take some time, but eventually they'll get an airline that will provide a spark and get air service growing again. If Spirit fades away and Delta continues to raise fares out of DTW, that will only open up opportunity. Whether it will be G4 or some other airline.

Hopefully they can pull it together up there and get their hands dirty. Doesn't mean that it won't be a bumpy road for another couple of years until the recovery is in full swing.


User currently offlineflyinryan99 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 2008 posts, RR: 13
Reply 9, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 5011 times:

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):

Wow...you never seem to amaze me. Listening to what the crews are saying. You have zero credibility with me or anyone in this area that knows you. You take every opportunity to bash TOL that you can and you think FWA is the best thing since sliced bread. I have no problems with supporting your airport and being enthused about it, but let's be realistic - CR9s to ATL right now while they are cutting a flight in the fall?

With that being said, I won't sugar coat anything - the situation doesn't look good for TOL. The Saabs are the perfect airplane for the TOL-DTW mission. The CRJs actually don't cost much more to run the route but they aren't making much more money with the increase in seats. I'd like to know where you are getting your information on the yield deteriorating? I've heard just the opposite - yields are doing pretty good. I can tell you for a fact that Allegiant has double the passengers in TOL and yet Delta generated double the fare revenue. Loads are running 45% to 50% full right now.

One strike TOL has against it, is the Port Authority hasn't done anything to promote the service or do anything from a marketing standpoint. While I understand the ROI isn't very good, they never seem to work with the community or Delta to try and increase the passenger service. The schedule is actually the best it's been in years and the Port didn't even mention in any kind of press release or a mention on their website that Delta is back up to 5 flights and one is a CRJ.

This is what I think will happen - TOL will be upgraded to all CRJs and probably get 3 flights a day. The passenger loads will probably hang tight around 50% but the route won't be able to survive because they won't be able to generate enough revenue as they would elsewhere. I would venture to stick around TOL would need to make something in the order of $5000 - $6000 per flight. Can it be done? I think so, will it without help from the Port? No...The good thing that TOL has going for it - short stage length and the costs are low. Oh...the yields aren't as bad as some people seem to make you think.


User currently offlineskyrat From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 173 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 4940 times:

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 9):
Wow...you never seem to amaze me. Listening to what the crews are saying. You have zero credibility with me or anyone in this area that knows you. You take every opportunity to bash TOL that you can and you think FWA is the best thing since sliced bread. I have no problems with supporting your airport and being enthused about it, but let's be realistic - CR9s to ATL right now while they are cutting a flight in the fall?

I completely agree! FWA is my airport and I'm tired of hearing about all these possible dreams coming our way. He likes to talk like he works these flights day in and day out and knows them, but he doesn't. Maybe instead of listening to what all his pilot friends are saying, he should talk to someone that deals with the numbers everyday. Someone that works the flights and knows how and what they are doing. Rant over....back to the real subject TOL.



flown:146,a319,a320,717,722,733,735,738,744,752,763,772,crj2,crj7,crj9,dc9,dc10,e135,e145,e170,e175,frj,md80
User currently offlinePeachAir From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 367 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 4618 times:

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
This rumor shouldn't shock anyone, but the crew lounge buzz among DL pilots at DTW is that DL/Mesaba will quit flying DTW-TOL as the last SAABs are retired, possibly by the end of this year or early next. The (rumored) reason: The route, already with dismal loads (probably weakening yields, too), wouldn't be profitable on a CR2.

Pilots always claim to have the "inside" information on network plans. This is all a bunch of BS. Their reliability is abyssmal.

Take it with grain of salt. Anybody with a pea for a brain can make a reasonable assumption that DL will stop DTW-TOL.

I'll beleive it when it happens.....


User currently offlineazjubilee From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 3952 posts, RR: 28
Reply 12, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 4603 times:

Nobody is claiming they have any inside information. It is indeed true, none of the crews know the CASM for the saab vs. the 200. HOWEVER, since we've already closed several cities since the saab retirements started, the writing is on the wall for further city cuts and TOL is ripe for picking.

User currently offlinebigsky09 From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 102 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 4210 times:

LOL! The funny thing is when I see a post from Fwaerj I have to read it. They are hilarious! You might want to stop worrying about TOL and start worrying about FWA. Being so tiny they are just as vulnerable.

User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3770 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 4181 times:

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 8):
An Anti-TOL thread by FWAERJ? Well there is a shocker. lawl

Not in the old way... I feel that TOL needs more service. But as the same poster said:

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 8):
The main thing that hurts TOL over everything else...Spirit. Their ridiculous fare structure has a major impact on the ability for G4 and other airlines to expand.

Spot on. One looks at the initial ticket cost on NK and doesn't look at the total cost of flying NK vs. other airlines. Oh, and NK also hurts FWA, but to a lesser extent than TOL due to the fact that more leakage from FWA heads to IND than all other airports in a 2-2.5 hour drive combined. Because of this, I'll be interested to see the outcome of the NK pilot strike and where passengers in the Toledo, Lansing, and Fort Wayne MSAs will go if NK folds.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 8):
The airport will need to undergo a reinvention, sort of like what Rockford has done...but again they are in a unique situation being so close to DTW. Could service been redeveloped? Absolutely. 90-95% of the local market is going to DTW right now simply because the flights don't exist. It will take some time, but eventually they'll get an airline that will provide a spark and get air service growing again. If Spirit fades away and Delta continues to raise fares out of DTW, that will only open up opportunity. Whether it will be G4 or some other airline.

I agree on both the reinvention and unique situation. Like my hometown FWA, I feel that TOL could handle at least twice the passengers that it does now... possibly even more than FWA due to the Toledo MSA's slightly larger size. It just needs the right airline (not public charters, like JetAmerica's pipe dream) with attractive business and leisure service. Which brings me to:

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 4):
If AirTran had hung around TOL longer and the local market responded better, it could have shifted local buying patterns enough to turn TOL into Flint South.


I feel that AirTran would actually be a very good answer to TOL's problems. But I think TOL faces a perception threshold within their route planning department, as they got burned once, restarted, and then pulled out again. ATL and/or BWI, and some Florida cities, and possibly OO CRJs to MKE would be good to start with. Heck, DL could restart TOL-ATL if FL came in.

Aside from seasonal routes, has FL ever started/restarted a city three times?

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 9):
I can tell you for a fact that Allegiant has double the passengers in TOL and yet Delta generated double the fare revenue. Loads are running 45% to 50% full right now.

Interesting numbers. Despite double the fare revenue, 45-50% is not full enough for a short hop. For example, FWA-DTW is in the mid-80s, as is FWA-CVG.

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 8):
It will take some time, but eventually they'll get an airline that will provide a spark and get air service growing again.

  



"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
User currently offlinecv640 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 952 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 4101 times:

Just a heads up, if you got your info from a pilot or an FA, that means we read about it in USAToday. They tell us nothing.

On the flip side, TOL doesn't make much sense. I did it a few times in the CRJ and just can't see it surviving in the post Saab era. Again, I'll miss those planes.


User currently offlineNASCARAirforce From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3184 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 2838 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 4):
Toledo would have a better chance if DTW had been built up someplace like Warren. DTW is just so convenient.

Thats why FNT does so well and TOL doesn't

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 8):
The main thing that hurts TOL over everything else...Spirit.

What does NKS have to do with TOL? I didn't know that they flew there.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 14):
I feel that AirTran would actually be a very good answer to TOL's problems.

How long did TRS last the other times they flew to TOL? TRS pulled out of TOL before they even started serving DTW, and even before FNT right?

If anyone builds up at TOL it will probably be Allegiant and maybe another small carrier like Vision Air.


User currently offlineDAL7e7 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 357 posts, RR: 3
Reply 17, posted (4 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 2743 times:

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 14):
Interesting numbers. Despite double the fare revenue, 45-50% is not full enough for a short hop. For example, FWA-DTW is in the mid-80s, as is FWA-CVG.

All you did is brag about FWA's higher loads. What makes you think that 45-50% percent is not full enough for a short hop? How would you know? Did your pilot friends tell you?



DAL7e7 is wondering... Do pilots take crash courses?
User currently offlinedldtw1962 From United States of America, joined May 2009, 393 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 2650 times:

As a travel agent. I would love to put my clients out of TOL. And for a time I did. As stated above the Port needs to
advertise the airport. DL and AA are great airlines to use. However, I would like to see DL start flying to any NYC airport
or going back to ATL. And also start MSP flights. This way they have access to a large number of flights thru out the system. If they did this I could start using TOL more.
Because most of my
clients do not like the new airport terminals that DTW has.
They like the way TOL is set up. And Thank you for answering my
question on the profitablity of DTW/TOL flights. I'm surprise at how well they are doing.

I remember the days when US, CO, UA, DL, NW, AA, Airtran and G4 where all flying out of TOL. It was great. The fares
where lower then DTW was. Oh well, that is my 2 cents on this matter.


User currently offlinewukka From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1017 posts, RR: 16
Reply 19, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 2589 times:

Sad day.

The first time that I ever flew was from CVG to TOL non stop. I was probably 7 or 8. I have a picture of me sitting on that flight wearing a tie and slacks on a relatively new 727, with a big ol' grin knowing that I was going to fly like Superman. I would pay a years wages to do that again!

I'm surprised that I can even get an itinerary from CVG to TOL through Detroit as of 5 minutes ago... so now that's going to be a thing of the past, as well?

Sad day.



We can agree to disagree.
User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3770 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2524 times:

Quoting dldtw1962 (Reply 18):
As stated above the Port needs to
advertise the airport. DL and AA are great airlines to use. However, I would like to see DL start flying to any NYC airport
or going back to ATL. And also start MSP flights.

I agree with you completely. But apparently, the TOL Port Authority thought that it was better to flush money down the (American Standard Champion 4) toilet on a vaporware public charter last year, JetAmerica, instead of working with Delta to launch LGA, ATL, and MSP and to let Allegiant expand their SFB flights. And JetAmerica planned on going to EWR, MLB, and MSP from TOL, so apparently the market is there. It's just TOL wasted their efforts on a public charter that was dubious to begin with, had no connecting feed, and had a Swiss-cheese business plan. All while ignoring a proven global airline like DL for the same routes.

As for advertising: TOL does advertise, like co-op ads with G4 (which are also done by G4 for FWA and many other airports). But I think TOL blew most of their co-op marketing budget this last fiscal year on JetAmerica ads. Heck, some of those "What Can You Buy For $9?" TV ads were played in Fort Wayne on both Comcast and Verizon FiOS. On a side note, FWA has done some good image advertising (print, web, and broadcast TV), complete with ads for the MYR nonstop on G4 and general image ads. This is in addition to the aforementioned G4 co-op ads.

In a nutshell, TOL's real problem is management that is too cargo-minded, and when they get a chance to improve the airport's passenger service, they blow it.

Quoting DAL7e7 (Reply 17):
What makes you think that 45-50% percent is not full enough for a short hop? How would you know? Did your pilot friends tell you?

CO's FWA-CLE fight had 36% loads, which is similar to what Eagle is running now on TOL-ORD. And ORD has far greater connectivity than CLE. And no, I got the the CLE load factors and break-even point from a professional consultant at a conference here in Fort Wayne. His name is Mike Boyd  



"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
User currently offlineRL757PVD From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4694 posts, RR: 11
Reply 21, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2494 times:

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 20):
I got the the CLE load factors and break-even point from a professional consultant at a conference here in Fort Wayne. His name is Mike Boyd

The accuracy of his data tends to vary greatly depending on if you are a client or not....

Kinda like the Fox News of airline consulting data.



Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlineflyinryan99 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 2008 posts, RR: 13
Reply 22, posted (4 years 4 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2490 times:

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 14):
Interesting numbers. Despite double the fare revenue, 45-50% is not full enough for a short hop. For example, FWA-DTW is in the mid-80s, as is FWA-CVG.

Again, it doesn't matter if 45%-50% isn't full enough. It is going to depend on what Delta is going to demand as the amount of REVENUE that is coming into Delta system. If they want a minimum of $5000-$6000 per flight, it may be doable. If they are going to demand a $10,000 a flight minimum, then there's just no way.

Quoting NASCARAirforce (Reply 16):
What does NKS have to do with TOL? I didn't know that they flew there.

Fare pressure. I have been repeatedly told the reason why TOL - FLL/NYC/MYR/LAS don't work is because of NK and their fares out of DTW. The low fares they create and matched by other carriers create flying unprofitable out of TOL. If NK were to go away, fares would rise and give the likes of some liesure destinations a chance on Allegiant.

Quoting dldtw1962 (Reply 18):
This way they have access to a large number of flights thru out the system. If they did this I could start using TOL more.

Hum...I could've swore DTW fits this criteria really well. I did a study a while ago and the connection times with the 5 flights a day we have now are really good. You can find almost every major destination with at least one connection around 30 minutes and all of them have a few inside 90 minutes. Pricing of course is the major issue - even if we were to get MSP or ATL or NYC, pricing would have to change to maintain these flights, and even then they still might not be profitable.

Quoting dldtw1962 (Reply 18):
I remember the days when US, CO, UA, DL, NW, AA, Airtran and G4 where all flying out of TOL. It was great. The fares
where lower then DTW was. Oh well, that is my 2 cents on this matter.

G4 didn't start flying into TOL until 2005 after TransMeridian went under. Fares were lower then DTW? That's why we lost all of the service. Need fares to be comparable, not necessarily lower as I'm sure there is a bit of DTW flying that is (was) unprofitable.

I've come to the realization that TOL will most likely not have DL in 2 years. But, the good thing is we have time to make a push to keep jobs and the route accessibility. The big question is - will Delta make goals that just unattainable or are they willing to work with the community to keep the service? I would like to work with them, but I can't seem to get anyone's attention lately - not even the Port's...frustrating.


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