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A380 Impact Underestimated By Major Airlines?  
User currently offlinekeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 39745 times:

Flightglobal and others suggest this could be the case.

One is that Emirates' rivals - even those that have opted for the double-decker in more modest numbers - have underestimated the revenue- and efficiency-generating potential of the 500-seater.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...comment-a380-must-pay-its-way.html
http://www.smh.com.au/travel/blogs/t...-worth-the-fuss/20100615-yb0h.html

Reasons not to buy into the Hyped A380 IMO are, were

1. wait and see if it meets it promised efficiency targets
2. many airports will not be able to handle the A380 and say they won´t invest
3. equal efficiencies can be achieved by new generation twins
4. passengers don´t really care what aircraft they fly
5. filling those 500 seats in weak times is a risk for airlines
6. the future is point to point in smaller aircraft, VLA´s will get obsolete

I think 1 has been solved, 2 and 4 have been proven inaccurate.

3. is yet to be seem IMO. Cockpit crews, overfly rights, slots etc. don´t scale down that easily. Shrinking capasity e.g. from a daily 747 to a 777 is shrinking your organisation, network and turnover.

5. VLA have been used for 40 years, the A380 is 35% bigger then the 747 while air traffic trippled in the last 20 yrs alone. A380 capasity doesn´t seem on earthy. Loadfactors prove higher then other aircraft.

6. point to point increases, but hubs grow everywhere. Still 80% of international traffic is between hubs (most people live close to a hub) and airlines are consolidating into global connected networks.

Airlines that underestimated the influence of the competing A380´s might be
- European Airlines that thought EK might, will somehow not live up to its overambitious plans. But sofar they have and they see the world as their home market.
- Airlines that (will) see their hubs being flooded with A380 capasity (LHR, NRT, LAX) and will have a hard time reacting in a profitable way.



Interesting times ahead.

275 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineparapente From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 1583 posts, RR: 10
Reply 1, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 39347 times:

No I don't think they have - I think Airbus have!

What Emirates has done IS the gamechanger.Yes some other majors with ponit to point routes that have heavy loads can take 380's.BA is a good example of this.But the others?They are out of the game.Hence you see a major airline trading down from 747,s to 359,s (not even 1000).

Suddenly Airbus sees what it has done.Boeing smiles with the fabulous 777 and the amazing 787 soaking up all the sales as airlines trade down in capacity (not quality).I don't think Airbus saw this happen (THe UH phenominon - who would have?)N

Now they are struggling to catch up with the 350 - a bit late to the party they are responsible for! Durr


User currently offlineGlareskin From Netherlands, joined Jun 2005, 1305 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 39323 times:

I do believe that some airlines have underetimated the effect of the A380. I was lucky enough to fly the mighty airplane on some occassions (not really lucky because I booked it myself..) and I have to tell that the experience is one of a kind. Also other passengers that are not freaks like we are talk about it. I will try every way to get a decent itinerary on the A380 if I can. The lack of noise and the better humidity just make you feel more relaxed after a long haul flight.

I think by the way that European carriers did not underestimate the A380. Maybe they underestimate(d) EK but the major airlines did order. The problem will come for the US carriers when more airlines (especially from Asia) start service with the A380 to the US. That is unless the 787 will prove a similar experience of course.



There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
User currently offlineSeJoWa From United States of America, joined May 2006, 352 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 39092 times:

I'd like to re-post an excerpt from the Financial Times article "Emirates in record order for A380 jets" dated June 8:

The size of the order, announced at the Berlin air show, surprised rival airline executives at the annual meeting of the International Air Transport Association in the same city. “What are they going to do with them all? We can’t figure it out,” said the chief executive of one rival carrier.


User currently offlinekeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 38848 times:

Quoting SeJoWa (Reply 3):
“What are they going to do with them all? We can’t figure it out,” said the chief executive of one rival carrier.

I guess the same question was asked 5 years ago about the 50 ordered A330/340s and 70 777's for the small gulf state. They don't ask that question anymore.

Quoting parapente (Reply 1):
I don't think Airbus saw this happen (THe UH phenominon - who would have?)N

I think they predicted 1000 VLA's or so in 20 yrs, and Boeing also.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11635 posts, RR: 61
Reply 5, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 38826 times:

I personally don't think the economic calculus has changed one bit.

The same skepticism I had about the whole A380 enterprise years ago still remains entirely true today, from what I've seen.

For starters, the plane will never make money. At the economic hurdle rate Airbus is running today given the billions in added money to the program, delayed schedules, missed milestones, engineering re-working, etc., I continue to doubt that plane will ever earn back its invested capital.

Beyond that, I am still less than convinced that the A380 can ever be viable outside of a few narrow channels of traffic linking a small number of the world's airports. The A380s are big at Heathrow. Yeah, and? Nobody doubted they would be, since Heathrow is chronically overcrowded and congested. The A380s are driving down yields and making it hard for other airlines to compete because they so dramatically flood the market with capacity. Yeah, and? Nobody ever doubted that owuld happen either - it was obvious given how big the planes are.

But I frankly do not yet see an economic justification for 90 A380s plying routes in and out of Dubai unless unprofitable traffic stimulation is the objective. Am I the only one who sees a corollary to the other massive overbuilding, speculation, and unrealistic expectations that have so severely come back to haunt the other aspects of Dubai, Inc. in the last 18 months? So sure, Emirates can fill up 90 A380s with tons and tons of connecting passengers, and destroy the economics of many other airlines in the process, but that doesn’t mean that is the most economically sustainable model to follow. Only time will tell.

So, at least to now, I - a self-identified skeptic of the A380's economic value proposition - am still unconvinced. The plane is a technical marvel - there's no question about that. But I'm not yet sure if it was actually a financially viable business, or merely one in a long line of pan-European social engineering programs to showcase European unity (thank God they got the first ones off the line before this year) and technical prowess.


User currently offlineGlareskin From Netherlands, joined Jun 2005, 1305 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 38758 times:

@ Commavia
I think you misunderstood the topic. This was about underestimating airlines, not about Airbus. Also you mix up Dubai with EK.

The fact that you repeatedly state that EK's model will hurt other airlines will prove the point of the thread starter.



There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
User currently offlineTravelAVNut From Netherlands, joined May 2010, 1613 posts, RR: 7
Reply 7, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 38756 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
For starters, the plane will never make money.

"Never" is an absolute term. And you do not know this for a fact. The most wise people never speak in absolute terms...

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
But I frankly do not yet see an economic justification for 90 A380s plying routes in and out of Dubai unless unprofitable traffic stimulation is the objective.

Well, seeing as EK is one of the few carries being profitable for the last 24 years. And one the only(?) one being profitable during the GFC, I dont think unprofitable traffic stimulation is the objective, do you?



Live From Amsterdam!
User currently offline9V-SVC From Singapore, joined Oct 2001, 1797 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 38649 times:

Quoting parapente (Reply 1):
Now they are struggling to catch up with the 350 - a bit late to the party they are responsible for! Durr

I disagree with you. Yes, they have started late on the A350, but they are getting more orders lately and because the aircraft is of a bigger size than the 787 dreamliner, I can see more orders of this plane replacing the 777s of some major operators in the near future.



Airliners is the wings of my life.
User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5467 posts, RR: 6
Reply 9, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 38647 times:

Quoting keesje (Thread starter):
2 and 4 have been proven inaccurate.

I don't think 4 has been proven one way or the other yet. The A380 is still a novelty and more passengers are seeking them out. But as newer-generation twins approach the A380's comfort level, and as it becomes less of a novelty, people won't react to them as strongly.

Most airlines' experience is that trying to lure people with aircraft type is a mug's game.

Quoting keesje (Thread starter):
6. point to point increases, but hubs grow everywhere. Still 80% of international traffic is between hubs (most people live close to a hub) and airlines are consolidating into global connected networks.

There aren't hub-to-hub routes out there to account for 1000 aircraft. Airbus had better hope that EK's vision of using the A380 on hub-to-point services proves workable. I'm sure those A380s can be filled -- whether they can be filled in a sustainably profitable way is a different question. EK's costs will go up in the future; it's a matter of time before they face labor unrest and/or a shortage of workers. Dumping capacity on the market is not the way to improve yields commensurately with rising costs.


User currently offlineaviationbuff From India, joined Mar 2008, 1425 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 38528 times:

Interesting article by CAPA on the subject.

Emirates declares war on the world’s flag carriers with order for 32 more A380s

http://www.centreforaviation.com/new...with-order-for-32-more-a380s/page1

Quote:
The vast size of the order, the largest in aviation history, is dramatic in its direct challenge to the old airline industry. But it also carries with it equally massive indirect implications.


User currently offlinecosmofly From United States of America, joined May 2009, 649 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 38192 times:

Quoting SeJoWa (Reply 3):
What are they going to do with them all

EK can run them like LCC and drive others out of biz in markets EK connects. With its dominating A388 order, EK must have gotten the sweetest deal and therefore can own the A388 resale, lease and maintenance markets even if they cannot use them all.

In addition, EU financed EK's success with Airbus subsidies to create the A380 and Europe's air traffic markets.

Lastly the Emirates will also try to make money out of EADS stocks from its big investments.


User currently offlineSeJoWa From United States of America, joined May 2006, 352 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 38074 times:

Quoting keesje (Reply 4):

I guess the same question was asked 5 years ago about the 50 ordered A330/340s and 70 777's for the small gulf state. They don't ask that question anymore.

Great pic, as always. I'd go with Rheinwaldner (if I remember correctly) and call the 777-300ER a VLA too.

Someone brought up the idea of EK being the world's first low cost long haul carrier. It just seems to me, 50 or 100 777ERs, 60 or 90 A380-800s notwithstanding, that their "Superhub" can connect a lot of places very efficiently, and their simple but large network makes matching planes to capacity not too difficult.

Astuteman has brought up the numbers that show EK are successful at present, and Stitch has analyzed their present fleet and current orders to demonstrate that their growth need not be utopian. Anyway, they can adjust.

I do wonder if their PR coup with political undertones didn't backfire somewhat, in that stealthy encroachment is now definitely a thing of the past. I am not in any position to judge this, by the way.

Could it be that the A380-800 - being the largest passenger aircraft in production - simply serves as a bellwether for EK's aspirations and trajectory? And that hence, it is EK's potential that is the crux of the matter, and not the excellent A380?


User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10031 posts, RR: 96
Reply 13, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 37848 times:
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Quoting SeJoWa (Reply 12):
And that hence, it is EK's potential that is the crux of the matter, and not the excellent A380?

I'd go along with that. The A380 is just part of that picture, but always the most controversial of course, for many reasons.

Rgds


User currently offlinerheinwaldner From Switzerland, joined Jan 2008, 2225 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 37847 times:

Quoting TravelAVNut (Reply 7):
"Never" is an absolute term.

Like "always"! You should never use them, oops!

Quoting SeJoWa (Reply 12):
I'd go with Rheinwaldner (if I remember correctly) and call the 777-300ER a VLA too.

That is indead what I have argued sometimes and nobody convinced me so far of the opposite. If the 77W is not a VLA what else is it? A medium twin? Common!


User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4397 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 37742 times:

I don't see many major airlines which have under estimated the A380.

LH,AF,BA are the major European airlines and have ordered.
SQ,EK,QF are major Asian/Pacific airlines and have ordered, also Korean and some first Chinese planes. More Chinese orders are a matter of politics.

Japan Airlines no longer are a major carrier and fights for survival. ANA will order, so will Cathay. They might have underestimated. South African Maybe.

The United States are in lethargy, so are its legacy carriers which only have local importance left - they all are big regional sales agencies selling flights done by Mesa and Co, and no longer major airlines.


User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12561 posts, RR: 25
Reply 16, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 37735 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
So sure, Emirates can fill up 90 A380s with tons and tons of connecting passengers, and destroy the economics of many other airlines in the process, but that doesn’t mean that is the most economically sustainable model to follow. Only time will tell.
Quoting Glareskin (Reply 6):
The fact that you repeatedly state that EK's model will hurt other airlines will prove the point of the thread starter.

Perhaps, but the question we are left with is, is it a good thing for the airline industry as a whole, including manufacturers too?

EK has a great business plan and great access to capital. Their competitors, less so.

EK can take away business from competitors and cause the competitors to decide to buy A380s but the net result would almost surely be overcapacity which leads to erosion in pricing and the lack of economic sustainability mentioned by commavia which will be a bad thing for the entire industry.

Predictions of steady growth in air travel are just that, predictions.

Much of this depends on the creation of a large middle class in Asia. From what I have read, we see a lot of people coming from the villages and moving from abject poverty to lower class, and we see a much smaller number of people moving from upper middle class to upper class and beyond. There's not all that much trickle-down that I can see. The rich are getting richer, and that's about it.

Personally I am hopeful there does become a new large middle class in Asia.

Then the next question of fans of the A380 will be will most of them want to travel internationally, more so than other things they may want to do with their money?

Surely some, but surely the uptick if any will be in regional travel first.

The flaw in the thread starter's premise is that airlines underestimating the A380 will learn the error of their ways and this will lead to some new equally profitable or better equilibrium.

I have a very hard time seeing this.

In fact the only way the premise results in a better airline industry is if all that added capacity is taken up smoothly and evenly by the emergence of new passengers that can afford to buy that capacity at a profitable price point.

Yes, the A380 lowers CASM which aids profitability, but they do cost money to buy and operate, and the question is will the lowered CASM stimulate untapped demand, enough to make it worth the exercise?

EK smothering the competition is a net win for EK and in the short term for Airbus's A380 program but not for the industry as a whole.

We did see a wave of "sympathy buying" as the thread starter seems to infer will now happen when the 747 was introduced, but all that did was grow capacity much greater than demand and lead to years of losses in the companies that bought the 747s.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4397 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 37643 times:

Every competition is good for the buisiness.

If EK really becomes the LCC for long range, they will generate new buisiness aminly and not take away much business from the established carriers. 90% of those people who fly FR would not have made the same flight at all without them.


User currently offlineDelimit From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1512 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 37507 times:

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 15):
The United States are in lethargy, so are its legacy carriers which only have local importance left - they all are big regional sales agencies selling flights done by Mesa and Co, and no longer major airlines.

You can't possibly be serious.


User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4014 posts, RR: 13
Reply 19, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 36684 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
The same skepticism I had about the whole A380 enterprise years ago still remains entirely true today

Yes, the A380 very likely will not make money for Airbus. But can it make money for the airlines that order it?

Quoting aviationbuff (Reply 10):
Emirates declares war on the world’s flag carriers with order for 32 more A380s

Emirates' additional order got way too much attention in a.net. The real matter for the A380 and Emirates is the delivery rate. Emirates can order 500 A380s. But if it continues to take in 3-to-6 per year, the order is irrelevant.

Has the order CHANGED the delivery rate of A380s to Emirates in the next several years?

The article title on Emirates declaring war on other airlines is very fit. I see the A380 32-unit add-on as part of a struggle between Emirates and the European flag carriers. Emirates recruits Airbus to lobby the EU and national governments for more access to European airports. Airbus helps Emirates to fend off accusations by European carriers of various forms of unfair practices, from Emirates' incestuous relationship with Dnata, to Emirates labor practices and government support. I bet my chips on Emirates winning and the EU carriers losing.



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User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12561 posts, RR: 25
Reply 20, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 36626 times:

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 15):
I don't see many major airlines which have under estimated the A380.

LH,AF,BA are the major European airlines and have ordered.
SQ,EK,QF are major Asian/Pacific airlines and have ordered, also Korean and some first Chinese planes. More Chinese orders are a matter of politics.

From what I can tell the implication of this and other recent threads is that the way forward is to go on an A380 buying spree like EK has.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 17):

If EK really becomes the LCC for long range, they will generate new buisiness aminly and not take away much business from the established carriers. 90% of those people who fly FR would not have made the same flight at all without them.

I don't know if EK is really going for low cost model.

They want to serve underserved markets with a good product at a reasonable cost.

More like a WN instead of a FR.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineGlareskin From Netherlands, joined Jun 2005, 1305 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 36261 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 16):
Perhaps, but the question we are left with is, is it a good thing for the airline industry as a whole, including manufacturers too?

Your question is valid, however I think this is unavoidable. It is not just ambitious airlines like EK with a tremendous growth but also airlines growing together and forming a massive purchasing power. This trend is called consolidation and you see it in all businesses nowadays. Look around you in the aviation field and you will agree that the mass orders are not new nor invented by EK. To give a few examples: Ryanair and Southwest placing massive narrowbody orders in order to make life tough for the legacies but also the merges from the legacy carriers US/HP, DL/NW, UA/CO, AF/KL, LH/OS/LX/SN/BD, BA/IB.



There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
User currently offlinepnwtraveler From Canada, joined Jun 2007, 2241 posts, RR: 12
Reply 22, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 36187 times:

Back to the list at the start of the thread.

As far as point 4, we won't know that passengers migrate in high number to the A380 until more are flying so they become more commonplace and the novelty has worn off. Any comment that the few flying now are taking passengers off other aircraft is not yet a solid trend. In marketing analysis you always see such bumps of interest when something is new. Far more important and crucial is how people view the product or service a year, two or more down the road.

As far as point 5, this remains to be seen. Lots of airlines parked their 747's during downturns, and some never took them back up, so until we have a major downturn you won't see what the A380 does during that time period.

I look forward to good numbers from LH and AF about how their A380's perform. Particularly LH as they will be flying both the 748i and A380.


User currently offlinekeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week ago) and read 36131 times:

OMG I thought airlines not ordering more then the previous 200 was a disaster. Now it becomes clear when they do order more it's even a bigger disaster..

I think when you look at the world 30 biggest international hubs, you can easily see the core of the market http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World's...y_international_passenger_traffic, I can see that #8 (Amsterdam is directly connected to all others, except Sydney, mostly multiple flights a day. Amsterdam has a very small home market (Netherlands total 16 million).

With historical growth rates of about 4-5% per year, I am not surpriced if a large part of the current 747/7773ER fleets will be replaced with aircraft matching network demand for the 20 years after.

The flagcarriers pobably won't stick with 10-15 aircraft.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11635 posts, RR: 61
Reply 24, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week ago) and read 35715 times:

Quoting keesje (Reply 23):
OMG I thought airlines not ordering more then the previous 200 was a disaster. Now it becomes clear when they do order more it's even a bigger disaster

No, not a disaster, just not profitable.

The amount of cash that Airbus has been forced to sink into the A380 - which, incidentally, has dragged down to a certain extent several other Airbus programs (A350 and A400M) - is unlikely to ever be recovered.

But, alas, I still suspect that the ultimate goal of the program was never economic viability. It was for the shareholder-pressured executives at Airbus, no doubt, but not the European politicians who bankrolled some portion of the development, and for whom the larger objective was always jobs and proving the viability of pan-Europeanism.

Quoting keesje (Reply 23):
I think when you look at the world 30 biggest international hubs, you can easily see the core of the market http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World's...y_international_passenger_traffic, I can see that #8 (Amsterdam is directly connected to all others, except Sydney, mostly multiple flights a day. Amsterdam has a very small home market (Netherlands total 16 million).

Indeed. A380s were designed to fly between the world's biggest hubs, which is where they will undoubtedly be primarily employed, along with linking European hubs with large local markets in former colonies (i.e., BA LHR-JNB, AF CDG-YUL, etc.).

But I still do not personally believe that this market niche that the A380 targets in any way justifys 90 A380s for Emirates, let alone Airbus' optimistic market projections.

As I said, and as I still maintain, I regard Emirates' 90 A380s as a massive capacity dump in the making which will, yes, lead to huge amounts of traffic flowing over Dubai, and yes, at the expense of many other airlines' bottom lines. But I still personally am not convinced that this model will be economically viable and sustainable long-term. (Again, I think the comparison to the rest of Dubai, Inc. - with massive overbuilding, ridiculously unrealistic forecasts, and building/buying on credit with the expectation of infinite growth - is apropos.)


25 LHRNUE : EK will be choosen by people flying between Europe and Asia, Africa and Asia, Europe and Asia for which low cost is more important than a direct conne
26 Post contains images KPDX : Yes, everyone underestimates the WhaleJet and they should just eliminate every other aircraft in the world, and replace them with A380's.
27 Aaron747 : Have you been paying any attention to news lately? There is massive potential trouble in the Middle East with Iran, an enemy of neighboring oil state
28 sofianec : The A380 will become profitable at some point. I have resided in Istanbul for the last year and a half and I have taken 42 roundtrips to Asia for this
29 SolarFlyer22 : I agree. I'd be really surprised if people en mass preferred to book an A380 over a 787. They might book it over a 747-4 but those will be replaced s
30 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...its been mentioned and shown many times EK isn't interested in "low-balling" fares -i.e. having the lowest fare on a particular route/set of route
31 LHRNUE : Yes all major international US carrier should be able to operated 380 cost effective even if they have only 10. Especially after all the mergers are
32 Post contains images A342 : I still maintain that apart from charters and flights to holiday destinations, there are no long-haul point-to-point flights (the BA LCY-JFK service
33 DLPMMM : I don't know why you think the A380 must be a "good choice" for every 747 operator. You seem to be missing the point that USA carriers have not order
34 Delimit : As an aside, I find it inte Comparing the US carriers and EK through the lens of the 380 is...novel.
35 frmrCapCadet : Japan has been in a deflationary situation much of the time since 1990. Keynesian policies would not allow this. Likewise the US for the last two year
36 DLPMMM : You are correct that Keynesian policies would not allow for deflation. Keynesian policies would instead cause runaway inflation (to the point of hype
37 LAXDESI : I applaud EK/Dubai for using its geographic location (a comparative advantage) coupled with huge investments in both aircraft and airports to be wher
38 Post contains images airfrnt : The 747 put the death nail in more then a few carriers, and was a large contributing factor to Pan Am's death. And that was before the rise of the 75
39 Norlander : Not to be too rude, but shall we take the model of companies that are 1) Profitable or 2) US Legacies? EK, SQ, BA, AF, LH etc. have all been very pro
40 frmrCapCadet : Simply not true. The 70s in the US faced amongst other things unprecedented fuel cost increases. And the inflation was serious but not 'hyperinflatio
41 Delimit : Comparing airlines without comparing the nature of their business realities is fairly ridiculous. The US airlines are not losing money because they d
42 AirNZ : But you cannot state that as fact, yet are doing so, without any factual financial numbers to support your claim.......it is merely your opinion only
43 CFBFrame : This is your issue and yours alone. EK, beat you and many others to the punch because EK knew there were people like you running airlines. When you l
44 ukoverlander : I hope this is not a foolish question as personally I am not familiar with the aircraft leasing markets, how profitable they are, etc, but is it not p
45 commavia : It is my opinion, based merely on what I have read of the billions, upon billions, upon billions that Airbus has been and still is currently being re
46 UALWN : Clearly EK things otherwise. You mean like the 320? Or the 330? Were they also European jobs programs? Or were they viable businesses? What's special
47 commavia : Sure. Lots of people think lots of things. Again - wild optimism is hardly new, and hardly unique to Emirates. I, personally, think at least some of
48 VS11 : There are factors at play that are not necessarily related inherently to the A380. Such as credit and the cost of financing now is cheaper for creditw
49 UALWN : Again, who should I trust more on this matters? Mr Clark or Mr commavia? But your point was that the 380 was a jobs program. You just admitted than t
50 commavia : Yes - just like that. I don't believe Airbus would be doing as much of that, and/or in the way they are now, if it weren't for the political consider
51 DLPMMM : Not to be rude, but you seem to have difficulty understanding the market forces at work. You should look at airline deregulation over the last 30 yea
52 Post contains images astuteman : They didn't bankroll any more of the A380 development than governmental organisations have bankrolled the 787, so your point is? Neither is the USA m
53 mariner : Quite bizarre how this has devolved into the many faults of Airbus (and not one mention of the Sonic Cruiser - LOL). What - exactly - does the A400 h
54 UALWN : So why is Boeing doing the same. Political considerations too? Wasn't that already proven by the Concorde? Why would they want to belabor the point?
55 SolarFlyer22 : Can someone confirm this point? Are there no US carriers with the 773 or 77W? That's really surprising to me but I can't recall ever being on a US fl
56 commavia : I don't think that's naive in the slightest. But that's just me. I don't think Boeing Commercial faces nearly as much political influence as Airbus d
57 Post contains links MPDPilot : Perhaps you should read this article about the subsidies and aid given to Airbus and Boeing. The WTO felt that the repayable launch-aid loans you men
58 DLPMMM : I never said it was, and I don't think I have "stuffed" anything down anyone's neck, for free or otherwise. I will make a prediction though that in t
59 UALWN : I thought they were one and the same company. Nope, in the commercial side. You stated that the fact that Airbus builds airplanes and components in F
60 VS11 : In the interest of facts, the 747 was the result of the R&D Boeing did for a military project which they lost. There was not a business need/mark
61 astuteman : I personally think that's a naive assumption. You think governments "influenced" Airbus to make the A380? I apologise if you disagree. But I think th
62 mariner : I don't see how the two are related. The political imperatives of a military aircraft are quite different from than those of a civilian aircraft. mar
63 commavia : Yes and no. They all roll up to the same balance sheet and income statement at the end of each quarter, but for operational and managerial accounting
64 LAXDESI : I wonder if airlines will play up, in a serious and sustained way, the higher cabin pressure and humidity benefits of A380, B787, and A350 for long h
65 A342 : I assume it is already being done. On the P-8 and the future tanker (if B wins), the Commercial Airplanes and Defence units must closely work togethe
66 commavia : Airbus is partially owned by government entities, directly or indirectly, which - along with basically the entire way the company has run its busines
67 UALWN : This is a preliminary ruling that Airbus is appealing. The case Airbus brought against Boeing for the subsidies it receives from Washington and North
68 UALWN : I see. So it is for purely economical reasons that Boeing decided to outsource the 787 to "high-cost Europe" (Italy) and even higher-cost Japan, whil
69 United960 : I think the Gulf carriers (EK, EY, QR) may be good for the A380 in more than one way. Not only are they buying a ton of them, but they may shape the i
70 TravelAVNut : Please tell me how EADS is owned by government entities, directly or indirectly. As fas as I know EADS is a consortium of privatly owned organization
71 Talaier : If traffic flows end up being less than predicted, then yes probably EK will have too many 380s to spare. But if that happens, EK is not going to be
72 Post contains images Delimit : No argument there. My only point is that it is very difficult to compare the financial results of the US legacies to most other large airlines of the
73 Post contains images Daysleeper : This is the first sustained A380 attack I’ve seen here, well this and the other EK order threads. I have to say, at first it absolutely baffled me
74 DLPMMM : Much of EK's attraction in the UK (as an example) is the single connection flights from secondary airports such as MAN, EDI... to far flung destinati
75 wingman : In the vein of the comment I made on the EK order thread, it will be EK themselves who in one stroke will accomplish two critical things with their st
76 david_itl : Thinking about it for the UK, by the time of the last delivery there should be at least 3 LHR, 2 LGW, 2 MAN and 1 BHX daily A380 services. So there's
77 packsonflight : Does anybody have any idea how much discount EK got from Airbus on this deal?
78 Post contains links commavia : I said "partially." http://www.eads.com/eads/int/en/investor-relations/share-information/shareholder-structure.html
79 MPDPilot : I wonder as well. I can only imagine how comfortable the 787 and A350 will be. Just think on some routes like into DEN for example the preasure might
80 DLPMMM : That is if your prognostications are correct. I really don't see 8 daily EK A380 flights to the UK in the forseeable future, at least if BA is still
81 413X3 : I realize this is an airplane fan forum, but I can't believe people honestly think that when booking a flight, someone cares about what type of airpl
82 United960 : DLPMMM - This is a really good point - but I don't think this means the legacies are doomed. Though there has been immense growth in the Global South
83 AFGMEL : Steal market share from those that don't adapt to the new environment.
84 Post contains images astuteman : I completely agree I completely agree again. As we said - it works both ways... Rgds
85 Post contains images pnwtraveler : To the point about US Carriers and the 777, correct there are no US Carriers that have ordered the 77W. AC in Canada has and is loving them with follo
86 mariner : I'm confused. Why would you want to make a comparison with US carriers? Why would you fly the A380 on soft routes? mariner
87 pnwtraveler : I don't but in every A380 discussion some ANetters want to. In the context of the few routes people mention as having enough volume to warrant an A38
88 mariner : LAX-SYD, perhaps. Again, I don't see that as any basis for comparison. The circumstances of Dubai are entirely different. It has no domestic market.
89 Lufthansa : Simple. Reduce frequency from multiple hubs and replace multiple flights with a larger aircraft with a lower CASM. That, in a soft period, would enab
90 babybus : I think BA have a 747 scheduled every two hours to JFK from LHR. In times where BA themselves are highlighting the need to cut carbon emissions it ma
91 Sparkingwave : Here's a hypothetical situation that might help illustrate the complex market the A380 finds itself in. Let's assume you want to fly between Houston,
92 rheinwaldner : If that is not based on economics on what does Boeing base the same actions lately? The A380 business case was flawless in the beginning as well. Dep
93 gemuser : Why on earth (other than an extremely good, rock bottom price) would anybody do that? It's not a reasonable comparision. Try IAH-LHR-LOS. It is 20% l
94 UALWN : I don't follow your logic. Since deregulation in Europe (13 years ago), LH has had just as much competition as the US legacies. But they are very str
95 GBan : Option 1, but the little problem will be that option 1 probably will not exist. If air traffic rises to a level that warrants daily direct flights be
96 ruscoe : As I mentioned in another thread the ultimate problem for the 380 & EK is Govt regulation, to protect their own home grown product. It has started
97 SeJoWa : I heard on German Public Radio (Deutschlandfunk), who are usually pretty reliable, that industry insiders recon EK paid a little less than half the o
98 Burkhard : Your example is a very extreme one. If EK really wanted to enter into the market Houston-Lagos to fill over capacities, they would offer that connect
99 parapente : Thank you Burkhard.I am glad someone replied as politely as you did.If anybody had been paying the slightest attention to what EK was doing they might
100 Pihero : The first comment one could make on this thread is about Emirates strategy : Basically their future will hang on just two words : "SIXTH FREEDOM"... a
101 AFGMEL : Absit reverentia vero The fact is that I can fly from MEL with EK and after DXB go to most of Europe now. That's expanding. I don't have to fly as fa
102 Post contains images par13del : Why would this be an issue, the cabotage EK is looking for is not in the US, the only place where cabotage is protected right? The EU is open to cabo
103 Daysleeper : Assuming this is sarcasm, Before the 787 what innovation or new technology had Boeing developed? I’m really struggling to think of anything......
104 Delimit : Probably because before the A380 and 787 we didn't argue about this totally ridiculous point. I'm sure someone will present you with a list shortly.
105 Post contains images avek00 : By year end, Delta and United will be the world's largest airlines. Hardly a sign of lethargy. The approach you mention here is more or less the norm
106 Burkhard : And how much of the flights they sell will be done on own metal?
107 avek00 : Plenty.
108 DLPMMM : Ding, Ding, Ding...You hit on the point! (accidently). The EU market has only been deregulated for only 13 years. The USA market has been deregulated
109 Delimit : All of that information is available publicly. Perhaps if you're going to make inflammatory claims you might do a bit of research first. I think you'
110 Post contains images A342 : If you simply equate advanced with many frequencies, that may be true. Otherwise, I don't see why. At least in the EU, I don't see how competition is
111 Daysleeper : I thought it was a pretty interesting and very relevent point. Innovation and new technology is what drive an industry forwards. Perhaps in the early
112 Talaier : You miss an extremely important point, which is that European carriers have their US' counterparts experiences to learn from. I believe the European
113 Delimit : Sorry if it sounded a little abrubt. There have been a number of threads recently where people have gone around in circles about how "advanced" certa
114 par13del : Well if they have followed Airbus and improved their products would you call that innovation? Airbus "invented" ETOPS with the A300, did Boeing impro
115 flipdewaf : I personally think that EK will do fine with 90 A380s. Unlike flying point to point like the Boeing said would be the future EK think that it will be
116 MingToo : What if EK were to team up with EasyJet to feed their European flights from more airports ? Its probably what many people would anyway do if EK didn't
117 frmrCapCadet : Good post. Anyone expecting governments (read the peoples' political decisions) to act consistently and in accordance with their stated economic beli
118 Aaron747 : This is an interesting train of thought, if it weren't so delegitimized by sales numbers. Sorry, I don't quite follow this statement at all. CPT-LHR
119 A342 : And which of those flights doesn't have a hub at least at one end? None.
120 DLPMMM : You seem to mis-understand Boeings market projections. The "point to point" terminology never referred to the elimination of hubs. It was a misnomer
121 Post contains images par13del : Why not, if the economics of any of the newer a/c allow the "abuse" and a local base in PIT seems large enough it could be doable even if seasonal, i
122 Delimit : There are already a few scattered examples of international point to point flying now. As the economics of the aircraft improve, that may either incre
123 Talaier : But that is precisely what EK is doing. The difference is that, becasue it has a strong hub at one end, instead of flying a 787 it flies a 380, which
124 huaiwei : None of these people are wrong. A "point to point" network is always a contrast to a hub network as far as network theories are concerned, so if Boei
125 Daysleeper : No need to apologise, the amount of rubbish being posted at the moment in order to further the crusade against Airbus and to belittle the achievement
126 huaiwei : How many inventions are purely original in the first place, especially in increasingly complex creations in today's world? I find the whole debate ov
127 Delimit : Honestly, that goes both ways. If you don't think there are plenty here who do the same to Boeing that people do to Airbus...well, I honestly think w
128 Pihero : I think you forgot some godly amount of money, which makes the whole deal a "bail-out". Why is it so difficult to stay on subject ? Answer : because
129 Daysleeper : I’m not intending to belittle Boeing, Pihero originally posted that Airbus had a technological lead and this was then responded too rather sarcasti
130 bikerthai : In the same vain. I live in Seattle (a hub of sort) and would love to fly to Ho Chi Minh city direct. Right now the few option is to go through Korea
131 Pihero : Not so fast. I would agree with you if it was just a pissing context...But it's not. It is about some prejudice from one side of the Atlantic about t
132 DLPMMM : Yup, I said that EK was the posterchild for the Boeing "point to point" by utilizing a hub to secondary cities. The question is whether the network E
133 Daysleeper : I’m sorry if I implied you did, although I have read all the thread – I must have missed the post you were responding too when you brought up the
134 Pihero : Pls see my edited post.
135 UALWN : The world's most advanced market? What does this even mean? Fragmentation? You mean AA, DL, and UA+CO? That's fragmentation? Check the number of airl
136 Post contains links Pihero : Just out : France - Emirates traffic negociations failed . Negociators agreed to meet again in six-months - time. See here Interesting times, someone
137 Post contains links Jambrain : Where are you reading that? from Randy http://www.boeing.com/randy/archives/2005/05/whats_the_point.html "That's the point of "point to point" travel
138 ncfc99 : I seem to have misunderstood Boeings market projection too. Please correct me if I am wrong, are you saying that EK are using an Airbus plane to impl
139 mariner : LOL. Most people flying to Australia actually want to go to SYD. Or MEL. Or BNE. I know very few people who want to fly to Oodnadatta. And if you wan
140 Post contains images EA772LR : With all do respect, you don't see the 777LR family innovative in any way?? The 777 family is a remarkable achievement in commercial aviation. I feel
141 Talaier : It depends on the configuration though. Bear in mind EK precisely has a very large number of premium seats and also uses up a lot of space with the b
142 Daysleeper : I see the 77L 77W as great jets, but they are hardly what I would call “innovative” – I can’t think of anything new which they brought to the
143 Aesma : The A400M program dragged itself down pretty well, nothing to do with the A380. Politicians/military people have a lot to do with it, however. As for
144 ruscoe : You'll have to get out more Mariner!. I think the Brisbane Melbourne Sydney thing is a self fullfilling prophecy, exactly because of the lack of alte
145 gemuser : Lots of Luck! I think you are being a tad optimistic there. SEA-HKG, maybe, SGN I strongly doubt. But who knows! Gemuser
146 vin2basketball : That one could actually be closer to 80%, cause there's a lot of local latin traffic at MIA Do we really want to play this game? Airbus A300- 561 fra
147 mariner : LOL. The first route Continental announced for the "hub-busting" 787 was from a Star Alliance hub to a Star Alliance hub. I shrug. mariner
148 Delimit : No, we really don't, which is why I just ignored his post. Ah, but the second one is exactly the kind of route we can expect to see more of. I have t
149 Daysleeper : I believe he was referring to the technological development of the aircraft, not the number of frames sold. Oh, I thought you ignored it because you
150 mariner : Huh? You'll have to explain that one to me. Lagos - from Houston? It's a spoke from a hub. mariner
151 OldAeroGuy : Here's a few (excluding any 787 info): First Twin Aisle commercial jet transport: 741 First HBR engine on a commercial jet transport: 741 First HBR e
152 avek00 : 1. The United States air market has gone farther than any other major air market in the evolution of air travel (both domestic and international) int
153 Post contains images Daysleeper : It's a little late here for a proper response, but my first impression is that I wasn't aware Boeing had helped design the engines. Or is it more com
154 vin2basketball : This P2P is kind of interesting, but here are some examples of P2P Long Hauls. AF- LAX-PPT QF- LAX-AKL DL- LAX-SYD BA- JFK-LCY NZ- LAX-LHR Kuwait- JFK
155 gemuser : Disagree on some of them: QF- LAX-AK is hub to spoke or even hub to hub. LAX is a QF hub, AKL could be called such. BA- JFK-LCY ??? This one is a bit
156 Post contains images astuteman : That's exactly right. A fair comment too Which makes me wonder why you then proceeded to do exactly that Airbus's achievement of parity has nothing t
157 Post contains images rheinwaldner : Good points! But hub-to-point does not tell much about aircraft size. If you do it decently you create the mass to operate non-VLA aircrafts. But if
158 TravelAVNut : Can you people please stop this cockfight?! A AND B have both be innovative! Sometimes for the better (747), sometimes for the worse (Concorde), some
159 parapente : This seems a very long thread for something so simple. The airline in question EK is profitable - full stop so this is straight business.Due to their
160 Post contains images SeJoWa : And considering moderators often seem like the Securitate and Inquisition combined, having ANOTHER thread hijacked without even a reminder to stay on
161 flipdewaf : A Market of 20 people to a particular destination on the other side of the world means that even the voodoo powered 78-heaven cannot make monies but s
162 Bongodog1964 : It may be easy to gain market share when you start at zero, but its a very long haul to take it to over 50%. IMO its easier to lose share, than gain
163 Post contains images Swallow : A WSJ article highlights the popularity of the A380. Fair use Before they ever leave New York's Kennedy Airport for Paris, tourists pose to take pictu
164 Pihero : Hello, Old AeroGuy ! 1/- Anything before the early seventies (i.e before the A300B started its life ) is not valid in our list, so that takes care of
165 maxter : The point/s being moot in the Australian context as more than 90% of the population live in close proximity to hubs...
166 Post contains images scbriml : Do people chose to live close to the hubs, or are the hubs positioned to be close to the people? All this talk of p2p 'busting' h2h is mostly just th
167 Post contains images astuteman : Why limit that comment to Australia? The big hubs generally see the largest amount of passengers because, guess what, that's where most of the people
168 OldAeroGuy : Integration of any engine on an airframe is not a simple matter. Look at the difficulties of the outboard engine on the A343. Boeing was the first wi
169 Post contains images Delimit : Nope. Just completely avoiding the conversation which; is a) off-topic and b) pointless. Innovation and advancement both have fairly subjective compo
170 flipdewaf : I would love to fly MME-LEX for the same price as it takes with stops but 1) there isn't the market to support it on even a 788 2)it would never be t
171 keesje : + hubs provide much, much more frequencies long haul..
172 CYatUK : It would be interesting if there was a way to find out the % of passengers doing 3-segment flights i.e. Point1-Hub1-Hub2-Point2 I have a feeling that
173 Burkhard : With times of low fuel over, and even the US understanding that maximizing oil production at all costs with minimal safety rules isn't a good idea, t
174 Post contains images Pihero : You know very well that it wasn't my point, and far from denigrating B, my idea was defending A from the puerile attempts at shooting down European a
175 DLPMMM : You have very well explained my interest in the EK model. They are apparently planning on using the hub to point model combined with VLAs originally
176 DLPMMM : Boeing's idea is that if you live in a hub (such as LHR), then there will likely be a non-stop (LHR-RDU), or at least a closer small hub or focus cit
177 A342 : What was so difficult about it?!?
178 Burkhard : I assume they made too little noise in the cabin.
179 Post contains images astuteman : Fair comment. I suspect I should have too I agree it wouldn't exist without the initial support it got. Which of course it needed because growing fro
180 flipdewaf : So Boeing said if you live in a hub then fly p2p? Or did they mean how about instead of 8hrs + 2hrs why not try 9hrs + 1hr and pay more for it? Or wa
181 bikerthai : Only a tad optimistic, given that UAL is trying to go SFO to SGN using a 747 but have to stop for for fuel (can't recall if it was Hong Kong or Taipe
182 maxter : Well, it's probably more so in Oz as any cursory examination of the population distribution will show. I wasn't arguing either way as I too believe i
183 CYatUK : In this example, if LHR-RDU flight is available then of course p2p dominates but the question is, how many city pairs are out there that can support
184 Post contains images Cerecl : I understand that you are intensely fond of the US airline industry, but for all your assertion that it is the "most advanced", it remains that it is
185 Delimit : He's intensely fond of Continental Airlines. The rest just follows. To be fair though, advanced does not mean, "better," rather, it means, "further a
186 413X3 : I don't get this worship of EK. Quite frankly their product gets worse and worse each year. They are just expanding too fast with money like that whic
187 UALWN : And yet SEA-GVA or MIA-TPE remain dreams, 787 or not. OK, so the USA market is more fragmented, hence the US market is more advanced. But the number
188 Daysleeper : Reading though the Boeing marketing articles linked earlier in the thread I can’t see how anyone could reach the conclusion that EK is using anythin
189 Post contains images flipdewaf : but it is honly half deregulated so I don't think you can saythat it is further along than the rest of the world. The airports need deregulating like
190 avek00 : My point exactly. And to be sure, the USA legacies had their heydays with VLAs (and especially 747s), when longhaul flying from the USA market looked
191 Delimit : Remember: more advanced = longer time. There's no valuation on that; it's just been happening longer. And our airports are not regulated in a way tha
192 OldAeroGuy : I was not replying to your comments. It was Daysleeper that could not think of anything Boeing had done that was innovative or developed new technolo
193 UALWN : Yet another A.net myth. There are more intercontinental gateways in Europe than in the US. There are more airlines with intercontinental flights in E
194 Delimit : How does it affect the airlines?
195 Post contains images Norlander : Yet the gaggle of airlines that apparently operate with increased costs and organizational complexity make money, where as the companies in the "more
196 Delimit : Profitability in the absence of context tells you nothing.
197 bikerthai : Since we are on the subject of EK. I have wondered how much business does EK have in supporting the Haj pilgrimage? Seems to me that this is can susta
198 Delimit : I'm curious about this as well. If you remove flights from Europe to the US, does this remain true? Also, remember that the original comment you're r
199 UALWN : In many ways. Say, DEN was way over-built, because it was funded with public money. So UA, F9 and WN can all have large operations in there. Instead,
200 DLPMMM : You are factually incorrect here. Using your Brasil example, please tell me how LH legally can fly from AMS or CDG to GRU? DL/AA/UA/CO can fly to GRU
201 Delimit : Perhaps a non-hypothetical answer? Otherwise what was the point of objecting to my statement? Also, reading my replies in context will help you enorm
202 UALWN : I had totally forgotten about EK (I know, that's stupid!). Even w/o EK, there are many more airports with intercontinental flights in Europe than in
203 Delimit : Numbers? I can count 20+ cities with long haul service in the US, although I would have to pay a bit closer attention to the list if I were to remove
204 avek00 : We're both correct, actually. The difference is, you are treating the EU as a single air market entity for longhaul and I'm not. Sure, the EU has got
205 DLPMMM : Please back up these claims. I don't believe you.
206 UALWN : I compiled a partial list in another EK, I mean 380, thread, a while ago. There are many more Airports in Europe with long-haul destinations than the
207 lewis : I am pretty sure that you can take ATH off that list nowadays.
208 Post contains images EA772LR : Yeah. I guess if we want to be really asinine, we could say everything Airbus has done has been a 'reaction' to Boeing since Boeing was at the party
209 Delimit : Breaking out LHR, LGW, CDG and ORY is a bit clever when we're comparing cities. If I collapse those back down I see 20-someodd entries, which probably
210 UALWN : You mean like EWR and JFK? I'm just being consistent. The first (partial) list I put forward included airports with long-haul intercontinental servic
211 Post contains images Delimit : Make the list. It should be easy. EK only serves 18 European destinations and the US list is longer than that. I would be surprised if EY and QR serve
212 lewis : So do TG, DL, CO (Seasonal), AC (Seasonal), AT (Seasonal) and US (Seasonal). But no European legacies at the moment. Fingers crossed to see long-haul
213 Post contains images Delimit : Ya, the list I am interested in seeing is European cities with non-US longhaul service. I am less interested in who operates it. There are a number of
214 vin2basketball : Those airlines don't have hubs on either ends of those routes OAK, PIT, RDU,BWI, FLL, DTW, MSP, PHX. Your point??
215 mariner : There have always been p2p flights. I suppose we could say that Emirates trans-Tasman flights - SYD-AKL, eg - are p2p, and that's the A380. None of t
216 Post contains images EPA001 : It has been a while since I have read something in this thread (after being unable to access the web at my hotel for 4 days) that addresses the questi
217 UALWN : Uh? Intercontinental flights from PIT? To where? From FLL? To the Caribbean? Doesn't count! RDU? PHX? OAK? I think Corsair stopped those flights long
218 UALWN : But those are some of the biggest airports (and hence hubs) in the world. These are not SEA-GVA flights! Or maybe because otherwise LH could not use
219 rameshksm : For the purposes of your list, it does not count, but PIT - CDG is served by DL Again, for the purposes of your list does not count, but PHX-LHR by B
220 Delimit : Actually you claimed: Feel free to provide a list. I count 27 airports in the US with longhaul service (many more if we just go with international se
221 DLPMMM : CDG by Delta London (AA) London (BA) HNL (HA) London (BA) You can also remove non-EU airports from your list (such as DME) since they are not a part
222 astuteman : If you want to pretend that London isn't a major population centre, then that's fine by me... - as was obviously my point. Rgds
223 UALWN : Isn't that a domestic flight? Should I count every airport in Europe with flights to the Canary Islands too?? Oh, I do. Randy explicitly mentions SEA
224 cerecl : How US airline industry developed is by no means how airline industries in other countries will develop. Each country, based on its governance and ge
225 avek00 : Yes, and this too goes to my point about the USA air market being more advanced (and its carriers thus having little need to acquire A380s). And to t
226 UALWN : This has nothing to do with anything we are discussing. But, in any case, the EU carriers are keeping a first class, which most of the US carriers ha
227 Burkhard : This thread needed some fine humor, thanks. Those 7000 will decide based on two criteria: a) Which connection is the cheapest. b) Which airport is th
228 Post contains images flipdewaf : So by "point to point" they meant "hub to point"? Were they wrong or did they essentially lie? Or like I said earlier was it just marketing jargon an
229 Daysleeper : I thought that there were still many US airlines which didnt even have seat back entertainment systems install in Y ? I'd hardly call that "top-end"
230 Pihero : This thread is quite unbelievable : They want us to believe that a bunch of mega airliners past a number of mergers are a sign of fragmentation, -that
231 Daysleeper : Don't forget the incredible technological achievements of Boeing, they somehow managed to install an engines on the 747, and 757 – I mean never min
232 Pihero : Very good point. But it seems that's more a matter of an ATC system unable to cope with a seasonal influx than a real saturation of the skies. Add to
233 Burkhard : To link this with the topic: Definitecely the sky is not crowded by A380, nor by 747, 777s or A330s and A340s. The skies are crowded were high freque
234 Delimit : Obviously, and I agree 100% and would never argue otherwise. There are far too many other factors besides simple time that will play into it. That sa
235 Post contains images sofianec : I made a GCM map of current or soon-to-start A380 routes. As per the impact of A380 title of this thread there are immediate impacs on carriers who do
236 avek00 : For longhaul, most have PTVs installed in Y, or have announced plans to do so. Typically, it's just one or two fleet types in any given USA carrier's
237 OldAeroGuy : And Airbus managed to put a second aisle on a Twin engine airliner. You took the thread down this side path. Obviously erroneous statements don't hel
238 DLPMMM : Yup! CASM and load factors and market share mean nothing if RASM goes down the tubes. If an airline can make more money by flying less people on a sm
239 Delimit : On that point (and I do not come down on either side), NRT should be interesting to watch, as you have pretty much all of the 380 operators but Qantas
240 Post contains images astuteman : And if they can make more money by flying more people in a bigger plane, they'll do that, too. Trust me And for what its worth, I don't consider thes
241 DLPMMM : I don't either. That is why the EK experiment will be very interesting to watch. Utilizing a massive global hub as EK is doing in order to generate t
242 Post contains images astuteman : I certainly won't argue with you on that score... Rgds
243 frmrCapCadet : Advanced? I think that what the poster may have meant is that the consequences of deregulation, intended and unintended, are largely played out in the
244 UALWN : Deregulation occurred in the EU 13 years ago. That's a long time. As for commoditization of international travel, I'm not sure I know what you mean.
245 avek00 : Right. Thirty years after deregulation, the US aviation market is only now arriving at a point of full post-deregulation maturity. And candidly, the
246 panamair : But the EK Experiment so far hasn't included a fleet of 90 500-seaters. A very simple question: what is EK going to do with 90 500 seaters during the
247 mariner : Same as they did in the last one, I guess - make money. mariner
248 panamair : As I said, they did not have 90 500-seaters sitting around the last time, did they?
249 mariner : Emirates expansive model served them very well during these difficult years. The static to contractive models of many other airlines have led them to
250 DLPMMM : Emirates business model is very interesting, Please note that other airlines are not free to copy the Emirates model (USA or European) as the EK mode
251 mariner : It sure is. They have inverted the conventional relationship between profit and market share. mariner
252 DLPMMM : I have never heard of that convention.
253 mariner : It was defined by Rono Dutta, among others, back in the late 1990's when he was President of United Airlines. He said then - in effect - that profits
254 LAXDESI : EK has been growing its market share and profits. So how is that inverting the relationship between profit and market share?
255 avek00 : Market share drives the revenue generation necessary to be in a position to potentially make profits.
256 mariner : It is a question of which you put first - what is the propelling imperative. The cart or the horse. That's the theory, as defined by Rono Dutta. mari
257 UALWN : How does this fit with the shrink-to-profitability mantra?
258 LAXDESI : I think I get your point. Industries with high R&D/capital costs and low variable cost, increasing market share would lead to higher profits. Air
259 mariner : I can't think why it should change now. History is on their side. The profit-driven airlines (and there are a few) have survived the last ten years q
260 Revelation : Some how you didn't mention that their governments kept Alitalia and Olympic afloat for decades using absurd amounts of government (taxpayer) support
261 DLPMMM : From what I have seen from Emirates, they are after both marketshare and profits, capitalizing on their inherent geographical, cost, and regulatory a
262 mariner : It is an old debate and I can only present what I see. No one has to agree, but no one has yet presented anything that has changed my mind. For examp
263 avek00 : I don't know about you, but I've been fortunate enough to have solid discussions with senior managers (and by senior managers, I mean the guys who ge
264 DLPMMM : Being the lowest price means that EK is leaving a little bit on the table (additional profit) in order to increase loads (marketshare). That does not
265 mariner : What point is "market share" in those circumstances? Market share, as a metric in itself, is meaningless. mariner
266 UALWN : Well, the US had a chance to get a public health care provider but blew it. Too bad.
267 Post contains links Mortyman : An interesting article: Hot Ticket for the World's Biggest Passenger Jet http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bud...09855/worlds-biggest-passenger-jet A f
268 parapente : Question - above -For how long can the publics massive interest in flying the A380 endure ? Answer. For as long as it offers the consumer benefits tha
269 Post contains links Revelation : As per Germany's and now France's behavior: Emirates To Lyon As France Rejects New Slots (by EK156 Jun 18 2010 in Civil Aviation) perhaps you should
270 Post contains images Delimit : I'm not sure you are making the point I think you are making.
271 avek00 : Very true. American carrier generally don't operate with this benefit. If only UA or DL could call up Obama like Air France can dial the French Gubmi
272 UALWN : Do you really think AF or LH can do just that? Maybe they can. Maybe this is part of the US being "the most advanced air transportation market in the
273 Post contains links Pihero : I don't know where these people are, but from my side of things, yes, thery're not shivering through fear. These airlines are monstruously huge compa
274 LipeGIG : At this point this thread become too long. In order to help our members without high speed connection, we are closing this thread. In case of need, pl
275 Post contains images lightsaber : The A380 needed a 14% lower CASM for 'sustainable profit.' It beat that. Once the in-process range improvements are complete, it will open up quite a
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