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FI: Embraer Reveals Vision For Single Pilot  
User currently offlineoykie From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2752 posts, RR: 4
Posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 18151 times:

According to this article, Embraer believes that this will help the shortage on pilots as well as save money for the airline. If this should be done, it has to be done with a backup to take control of the plane from the ground in case the pilot gets a heart attack, or is unable to command the plane. I do not believe it is possible to get rid of 50% of the pilots in the future

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...on-for-single-pilot-airliners.html


Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
169 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinecokepopper From United States of America, joined May 2008, 1184 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 18127 times:

What happens when the Pilot has to use the lavatory?

User currently offlineHAL From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 2561 posts, RR: 53
Reply 2, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 18083 times:

Have they never heard of radio communications difficulties? No matter the method, (HF, VHF, Satellite) I've had communications blackouts and interruptions.

Check the data on how many UAV's the military has lost in the past few years (hint - close to 50!). Do we really want to trust 300 lives to that kind of inaccuracy every time the pilot has to pee?

HAL



One smooth landing is skill. Two in a row is luck. Three in a row and someone is lying.
User currently offlinebeeweel15 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 1753 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 18067 times:

Quoting cokepopper (Reply 1):
What happens when the Pilot has to use the lavatory?

Not only that with the cockpit doors to be locked at all times what happens if he forgets the key in the cockpit ?


User currently offline4everRC From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 325 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 18022 times:

Quoting beeweel15 (Reply 3):
what happens if he forgets the key in the cockpit ?

Call OnStar from the galley?



Nobody served our republic like Republic!
User currently offlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26497 posts, RR: 75
Reply 5, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 18001 times:

Quoting HAL (Reply 2):
Do we really want to trust 300 lives to that kind of inaccuracy every time the pilot has to pee?

No. I want 2 pilots on my planes.



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6193 posts, RR: 34
Reply 6, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 17895 times:

Quoting oykie (Thread starter):
According to this article, Embraer believes that this will help the shortage on pilots as well as save money for the airline.

An earlier thread reported that GE was working with the FAA and cargo operators towards single pilot ops by 2020.


SP is coming... 10 to 15 years from now at the latest for cargo and RJs. It will be a natural fall out from all the billions and billions that are being poured into UAS technology.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineHAL From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 2561 posts, RR: 53
Reply 7, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 17863 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 6):
SP is coming

After that long thread last time I knew you'd be here for this one. 
Quoting planemaker (Reply 6):
It will be a natural fall out from all the billions and billions that are being poured into UAS technology.

I've never said Single Pilot passenger service won't happen. But my only point is that it has to be at least as safe as two-pilot operations are now. I just don't see that happening in 10, 20, or even 30 years.

HAL



One smooth landing is skill. Two in a row is luck. Three in a row and someone is lying.
User currently offlineSampson777 From Canada, joined Mar 2010, 28 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 17806 times:

Quoting cokepopper (Reply 1):
What happens when the Pilot has to use the lavatory?

At that exact moment, something will go wrong

Quoting HAL (Reply 2):
Have they never heard of radio communications difficulties? No matter the method, (HF, VHF, Satellite) I've had communications blackouts and interruptions.

  

Quoting beeweel15 (Reply 3):
Not only that with the cockpit doors to be locked at all times what happens if he forgets the key in the cockpit ?

Protocol would dictate that a FA take the pilot's seat when he/she is away. Although this is currently in force, how often is it "Actually" implemented???

Quoting 4everRC (Reply 4):
Call OnStar from the galley?

  

Quoting N1120A (Reply 5):
No. I want 2 pilots on my planes.

  

All jokes aside, how would the public react to this. Whenever people have put forward ideas in the past, many of them have been shot down, and are now in use in the industry.

What do the pilots here say??????

How would they feel having to work a long flight with no company?



Making Mom proud since 1989
User currently offlinedl767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 17733 times:

2 pilots should always be the minimum. There is just so much to do that even though a computer could technically take over one of the pilot's responsibilities it's always better to have someone to talk through things with when you are stressed or having technical problems.

User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6193 posts, RR: 34
Reply 10, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 17633 times:

Quoting HAL (Reply 7):
But my only point is that it has to be at least as safe as two-pilot operations are now.

And they will be.

Quoting HAL (Reply 7):
I just don't see that happening in 10, 20, or even 30 years.

One only has to look at Moore's Law (in fact, the industry is going faster than it).



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineJER757 From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2006, 350 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week ago) and read 17579 times:

Shortage on pilots? You what?


Gale force fog... don't you love it?
User currently offlineoykie From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2752 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week ago) and read 17551 times:

Quoting HAL (Reply 2):
Check the data on how many UAV's the military has lost in the past few years (hint - close to 50!). Do we really want to trust 300 lives to that kind of inaccuracy every time the pilot has to pee?

With the NextGen ATC this should be overcomed in a decade or so?

Quoting Sampson777 (Reply 8):
Whenever people have put forward ideas in the past, many of them have been shot down, and are now in use in the industry.

   I believe that there was a huge debate when the flight engineer was eliminated. When the two-crew cockpit was designed psychologists was involved to make the cockpit safer.They will of curse be a part of this design as well. They probably are involved in the 787/A350 design as well.

But it will take a bit longer to have the publics acceptance of this, than the flight engineer.



Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
User currently offlineDiamondFlyer From United States of America, joined Oct 2008, 1547 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week ago) and read 17471 times:

Quoting oykie (Reply 12):

With the NextGen ATC this should be overcomed in a decade or so?

What does NextGen have anything to do with it. As of yet, the FAA has yet to figure out a method to make compliance with ADS-B out mandatory through a single means. With two possible ways to comply, the whole system relies on ground based transmitters, just the same as radar. Not sure how NextGen helps SP operations.

Quoting oykie (Reply 12):
But it will take a bit longer to have the publics acceptance of this, than the flight engineer.

I'd wager the insurance companies will be just as hard to convince its a good idea as the public is.

-DiamondFlyer


User currently offlineoykie From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2752 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week ago) and read 17428 times:

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 13):
What does NextGen have anything to do with it. As of yet, the FAA has yet to figure out a method to make compliance with ADS-B out mandatory through a single means. With two possible ways to comply, the whole system relies on ground based transmitters, just the same as radar. Not sure how NextGen helps SP operations.

According to the linked article Embraer believes SP will follow after NextGen are rolled out.



Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
User currently offlinedl767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week ago) and read 17422 times:

Quoting oykie (Reply 12):
With the NextGen ATC this should be overcomed in a decade or so?

I think it can be done on the technical side, but it's the public perception and the pilots who will have the final say in all honesty. I love flying, I want to be a pilot, but flying a plane alone is much different than driving a car alone. Pilots all have to start their commercial service somewhere, usually as a FO with a seasoned captain to help get them through the learning curve for a while. Just think about the poor guy's first commercial flight sitting alone in the cockpit.


User currently offlinemacsog6 From Singapore, joined Jan 2010, 533 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week ago) and read 17400 times:
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Given some of the forecasts I have been seeing for solar storms starting in 2012 with increasing frequency through 2013, what happens when one of the solar storms knocks all communications to the aircraft out temporarily? That one pilot is going to be VERY busy. Already mentioned is going to the lav and so forth, plus we just saw a FO on an AA 767 become too ill to perform his/her duty and an FA hop in the right seat.

I can live with ETOPS, but an single pilot is, IMO, not the way to go.



Sixty Plus Years of Flying! "I fly because it releases my mind from the tyranny of petty things." - Saint Ex
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6193 posts, RR: 34
Reply 17, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week ago) and read 17349 times:

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 13):
I'd wager the insurance companies will be just as hard to convince its a good idea as the public is.

They won't be hard to convince on both sides. In 20 years there will be an extensive track record of UAS flights.

Quoting dl767captain (Reply 15):
I love flying, I want to be a pilot, but flying a plane alone is much different than driving a car alone.

Airline flying is going to get a lot more boring once Next Gen ATC is fully implemented. There will be virtually nothing for the pilots to "actually" do.

Quoting macsog6 (Reply 16):
what happens when one of the solar storms knocks all communications to the aircraft out temporarily

Not an issue. The link to ground is only a back up.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineHAL From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 2561 posts, RR: 53
Reply 18, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week ago) and read 17328 times:

Quoting oykie (Reply 12):
With the NextGen ATC this should be overcomed in a decade or so?
Quoting oykie (Reply 14):
According to the linked article Embraer believes SP will follow after NextGen are rolled out.

Well, I've been looking deeper in to NextGen a lot lately, and as good as it may be, it really does nothing to improve the technology of the actual communications between ground and air beyond the current VHF or Satellite methods used today. And considering that they're talking about a minute or more of acceptable lag time in the round trip communications time for a satellite message, that is absolutely unacceptable when it comes to the control of an aircraft. Until that communications round-trip time and control reaction time gets down to individual seconds, there's no way control of these aircraft will be left to a single pilot, backed up by ground control.

And are they going to have an individual person on the ground controlling these flights? Are they going to be overseeing multiple flights? What happens when there's a problem on more than one flight? How do they handle multiple emergencies on multiple flights? Won't this person cost as much as a current pilot? And if not (because he's controlling multiple flights) isn't that right there a reduction in safety???

HAL



One smooth landing is skill. Two in a row is luck. Three in a row and someone is lying.
User currently offlineHAL From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 2561 posts, RR: 53
Reply 19, posted (4 years 3 months 1 week ago) and read 17301 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 17):
Airline flying is going to get a lot more boring once Next Gen ATC is fully implemented. There will be virtually nothing for the pilots to "actually" do.

Then you really don't understand what NextGen is all about.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 17):
Quoting macsog6 (Reply 16):
what happens when one of the solar storms knocks all communications to the aircraft out temporarily

Not an issue. The link to ground is only a back up.

Yep, it's just a backup. Just like the second pilot in the cockpit today is just a backup. It's a life-or-death requirement backup that should not be linked to such 'iffy' technology as a communications link. If you believe it's 'just a backup', then admit you'd be happy to fly on today's planes with just one pilot onboard.

HAL



One smooth landing is skill. Two in a row is luck. Three in a row and someone is lying.
User currently offlineGoBoeing From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 2698 posts, RR: 14
Reply 20, posted (4 years 3 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 17270 times:

They're dreaming.

Funny that Embraer put this out, too.

Half the time when starting the thing up it's got some moronic message on the EICAS and requires a power reset to clear it. Really not impressed with the E-Jet considering it came out when the B-777 did. It's got some great stuff but it's really goofy at times. Single pilot in it? Not in the next 20 years.


User currently offlinemrocktor From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1668 posts, RR: 49
Reply 21, posted (4 years 3 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 16985 times:

Reality check: By any reasonable measure any CAT3 capable aircraft can safely fly itself from takeoff to landing today, given reasonable environmental conditons and no anomalies (bird impact, windshear etc. etc. etc.). Both pilots, at this point, are pretty much safety features and not strict necessity.

I don't see any rational reason why an appropriate level of flight safety could not be achieved with a single pilot, given such things as:

Improved autonomous flight systems reliability (can't have buggy systems here, as mentioned)
Improved autonomous flight systems performance (to deal with environmental extremes we currently count on the pilot for)
Improved means to remotely support the pilot (comms, diagnostics, etc. - remote real time troubleshooting for real)
Means to remotely control the aircraft (as an ultimate backup, of course)
(...)

Disclaimer: I am not in any way involved in the initiative cited in the article.


User currently offlineBirdwatching From Germany, joined Sep 2003, 3822 posts, RR: 51
Reply 22, posted (4 years 3 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 16961 times:

Quoting beeweel15 (Reply 3):
what happens if he forgets the key in the cockpit?
Quoting 4everRC (Reply 4):
Call OnStar from the galley?

Probably the most hilarious thing I've ever read on this board.

Soren   



All the things you probably hate about travelling are warm reminders that I'm home
User currently offlineGoBoeing From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 2698 posts, RR: 14
Reply 23, posted (4 years 3 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 16958 times:

Quoting mrocktor (Reply 21):
Both pilots, at this point, are pretty much safety features and not strict necessity.

Wrong.

I wish you could be on the jumpseat tomorrow -- I guarantee you would see things that would change your view. We really are not close to single pilot or pilotless aircraft at all. I mean literally 30-50 years away at least.


User currently offlinejoost From Netherlands, joined Apr 2005, 3169 posts, RR: 4
Reply 24, posted (4 years 3 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 16957 times:

Quoting oykie (Reply 12):

But it will take a bit longer to have the publics acceptance of this, than the flight engineer.

Of course, but the general public is typically easy to accept new technologies, when it makes the product cheaper.

I actually think that in 15 to 20 years SP is necessary for operating regional air services. Whenever there comes a new aircraft in the sub 70 seat category, it will be singe pilot.

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 13):
I'd wager the insurance companies will be just as hard to convince its a good idea as the public is.


Insurance companies would be the last of my worries. They can very well interpret a change of 1:1,000,000,000 or whathever it is. Multiply the chance with the expected claim and "voila".

Quoting HAL (Reply 19):

Just some thoughts for the other side of the story. Assuming that with new technology, a regional jet in 2025 can be flown very well by one pilot (as technology will take over more tasks), then the 2nd pilot is a back-up in case of (medical) problems for the first pilot.

* Do you actually need real-time control in all situations? When in normal cruise, do you actually need real-time human control, or would a (highly advanced) autopilot be able to navigate to a location where you can have control?

* Would an (highly advanced) autopilot be able to land an aircraft fully automatically at a near (pre-programmed) airfield (equipped with all required systems), in case of emergency? And if now, why not?

* Satellite communications will always take some time (from the speed of light etc), but ground-based communications are quite reliable at short distance. Is it sufficient that when an aircraft approaches an airport, that a ground-based controller can take over from that moment?

* Could we think of a new function profile on board of the aircraft, a half pilot / half purser. With new controls, ground-based support, could a purser-pilot land an aircraft safely? In the very unlikely situation that these things happen, the airport could be made vacant for a while (let other aircraft fly holding patterns or whatsoever) to let the aircraft land safely?

Quoting GoBoeing (Reply 20):
They're dreaming.

No they have a vision. You need to have a vision in order to make advancements. When you only think of today's (or yesterday's) technology, you'll never make a step forward.

I think 2020 is pushing it, though. Although for a prototype for tests flights: ambitious but not very unrealistic.

Quoting beeweel15 (Reply 3):
Not only that with the cockpit doors to be locked at all times what happens if he forgets the key in the cockpit ?

When the aircraft can be ground-controlled, what's the necessity of keeping the doors locked? Surely ground control will take over once it's clear that the aircraft looks like heading towards a building...

Why aren't people afraid of riding highway coaches with 1 driver. If the driver gets a stroke or whatever, the bus can crash too and it can also involve 70 or 80 people. And here is no back-up at all. For an aircraft, there will be a triple advanced autopilot capable of landing the aircraft automatically and multiple ground links to cover the risk of losing a pilot (who is also being checked for health way more often than a bus driver).

And what about unmanned tramways like found in France?

[Edited 2010-06-16 14:29:03]

25 413X3 : I think you mean after takeoff. No airplane takes off on its own
26 GoBoeing : Right, which is why I said they're dreaming. 100 months from right now, a single pilot jet certified? No way, not even double that.
27 DfwRevolution : Just make the pilot's seat a toilet. Whose going to watch him go? In all seriousness, single pilot cockpits will absolutely happen in commercial avia
28 joost : Certified jet? Not before 2030. First flying prototype (with all back-up in place)? I wouldn't be surprised. 50 years is a lot. 50 years ago, the 707
29 spacecadet : Or Murphy's Law...
30 MauriceB : LOFL! N-E-V-E-R in the next 30 years, what about the following situations: -SP on Regional jets: 'FA: ''Ladies and gentlemen, our pilot just had an he
31 planemaker : I do indeed know what Next Gen is all about and it will indeed make flying even more boring for airline pilots. I do already, quite frequently... no
32 GoBoeing : Yes 50 years is a lot. But the FAA can't even get this NextGen thing going in less than a decade. That whole program is nothing compared to this! Thi
33 planemaker : 787's delivered in 2025 certainly could be single pilot.
34 planemaker : It already is rolling out and will be fully implemented by 2020. It is about what pax will pay and the progress shows in the fares! As for the Concor
35 HAL : For navigation you certainly can turn it over to even a current-day autopilot. But there so much more to flying the plane than aiming from point A to
36 DiamondFlyer : If you believe that, I've got ocean front property for you in Vegas. Yes, it will be partially implemented by 2020, for certain types of airspace, bu
37 comorin : Would the following crashes have happened if you had had just one pilot in the cockpit? 1. AIX in Mangalore 2. Air Afriqiyah in Tripoli 3. ET in BEY 4
38 GoBoeing : Isn't that what I said? That they can't get it going in less than a decade? And that is a simpler task than what this single pilot stuff would be.
39 HAL : No, it's not. In fact the 'puddlejumpers' are harder to fly than the jets - I know becaue I used to fly a Navajo out of FAI to remote airports all ar
40 Goblin211 : Well, the planes are on autopilot most of the time anyway so if he/she had to go they could just leave. although it'd be kind of suspicious to see yo
41 Post contains links tugger : Well here's your problem: http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/p...eing-767-at-chicago-ohare-/96901/1 Now with that said I do believe that single pilot
42 ABpositive : Unmanned drones that USAF use in Iraq and Afghanistan don't require constant radio links. There are many sensors and a lot of intelligence in the syst
43 JBirdAV8r : Next Gen ATC will be fully implemented about the same time the government lands us on Mars. No matter what date you pick, it's always 10-15 years in
44 comorin : OK, so how about this - Single-pilot airliners aint happening till we have single-engine airliners.
45 Post contains images WarRI1 : I think single pilot aircraft will cause the re-birth of the ocean liner. I cannot imagine anyone being stupid enough to get on a one pilot large airl
46 GoBoeing : Yeah, just about the same timeline!
47 caboclo : Single pilot ops are already here and always have been. Granted, they are currently relegated to the bottom end of the cargo and corporate markets, bu
48 planemaker : Only at the moment. It doesn't even have to be SAFER... just the same level of safety as today (though SP safety will be better because it will minim
49 Boeing1970 : They got rid of about 20% of them through the 1990's by eliminating the FE position through automation.
50 Post contains images USAir330 : What happens if the pilot and FA have the fish? To much workload for a single pilot going into La Guardia for example even with the new ATC system. A
51 dl767captain : What exactly is this new ATC system going to do that will make flying less interesting? The pilots still have to do the same checks, I'm sure they wi
52 Boeing1970 : No. In fact, once NextGen is fully implemented, flights will be sequenced and routed across the entire system for optimized speed and flow between tw
53 flybyguy : I'm all for fully automated flights. We all know that the pilot turns on the autopilot moments after take-off and off moments before landing. Planes
54 HAL : Yes, they will have the same control as before - they will operate the aircraft according to the instructions of ATC. But the operation of the aircra
55 borism : People who oppose this have to at least face it that airlines and manufacturers will continue to look into this unless something changes in airline-pi
56 rheinwaldner : Nothing is a more strict necessity than aviation safety features. The happy path counts nothing. A lot of technology and procedures deal with the 0.0
57 planemaker : He is not missing the point and he is not wrong... and that is why companies are developing SP enabling technology... and ultimately for UAV airliner
58 PlaneWasted : Maybe they can make the planes easy enough to fly by an extra trained flight attendant if something happens to the pilot? And then require at least on
59 mrocktor : A regional jet today can easily be flown by a single pilot. And these are jets that were not even designed for it. No. A current autopilot can land a
60 Post contains images aljrooney : Does this mean PIC now stands for Pilot In Comode? Alan
61 GoBoeing : So if we're flying along at M.77, which by the way we'll have no control over, and we encounter some occasional light turbulence, and this turns into
62 rolfen : Either 0 pilots or 2 pilots. I don't agree to 1 pilot... plus they need a backup, so what are the benefits? And... pilot shortage? There's a shortage
63 Post contains images GoBoeing : Exactly. The backups would have to be so thorough that you might as well have no pilots on board. Which is a loooong way in the future. To quote a B6
64 HAL : Have you looked into how much simulators cost to operate? It's much more than having another pilot sit in the cockpit! HAL
65 GoBoeing : No, he hasn't. He has not learned that a level D could cost five times more than a pilot per hour. He also doesn't realize that a pilot doesn't requi
66 Boeing1970 : From what you've said in your posts, it clear to anyone familiar with "NextGen" that you aren't reading anything at all about it. I'm pretty sure we'
67 GoBoeing : No, you won't. Why? Because it pops up out of nowhere and clogs up the arrival with no advance notice whatsoever. Planes keep going through and going
68 Boeing1970 : Again, something a single pilot can handle. They do it now. Or are you going to now assert there are no single pilot ops out there in high performanc
69 GoBoeing : No, of course not. But in the event of incapacitation, an airliner is not the same as an F-16. Nobody else is on board an F-16. Sure, there are Citat
70 spacecadet : Single pilot ops can never be as safe as two pilot ops until we have AI systems that are at least as intelligent as humans. And we're at least 30 year
71 Boeing1970 : Its going to happen, and in your life time. Just accept it and move on.
72 mrocktor : I find it hilarious you assume that I don't know anything about flight operations. I have jumpseated. I have sat in a sim for hours while pilots ran
73 spacecadet : How about no?
74 GoBoeing : Yeah, we all agreed on this 50 posts ago. The point is, you need every airplane equipped for that in case it does happen. In doing so, you would need
75 Boeing1970 : Signed, Flight Engineers Unless you're 60, the answer is yes.
76 GoBoeing : For many reasons we've already covered (post #74 sums it up for me), there is a big difference between going from 3 pilots to 2, and from 2 to 1. Whe
77 MaverickM11 : Everyday UAVs are making flights over some of the most difficult terrain in the world, and that produces an ocean of data on an hourly basis. Not only
78 mrocktor : That does not mean a level D sim for each aircraft as was implied in Reply 64 and in your Reply 65. It means one such facility in each broad area, to
79 Post contains images planemaker : You don't need AI for SP Ops... just a dog. BTW, you are wrong about AI systems. AI will be not only surpass human intelligence in most measures by 3
80 Post contains images MaverickM11 : Seeing as most crashes are human error, I'm not sure humans necessarily have the upper hand. Better odds than the space shuttle Sure there are lots o
81 avek00 : First thing that came to mind in reading this thread is Air France 447.
82 WarRI1 : I did not say that it cannot or has not been done, the ability to do it and the acceptance of it by the large majority of the flying public is quite
83 HAL : Folks, I checked into the hotel today after my flight, and came to A.net to check out the discussion. After reading the last day's worth of posts my b
84 mrocktor : Not hardly. I could not do my job without specialized help from pilots. If at some point single pilot ops (or full auto - though I'm not a proponent)
85 planemaker : This is a common mantra that is simply does not apply in this thread. Seriously, how many times has FBW failed?? We obviously know how to make fail-s
86 KAUSpilot : ............................[Edited 2010-06-18 16:51:11]
87 WarRI1 : Murphy's Law come to mind. It applys at ground level and at 30K Ft. Humans cannot engineer such a system, and when the first one screws up and kills
88 Boeing1970 : Well, thats helpful. Most don't know squat. This is only an interim until GBAS is resolved. Most of the benefit is derived from aircraft equipment to
89 Post contains links planemaker : Murphy's Law is not a "law" it is simply an adage... a saying that has no application here. And FBW disproves your assertion! Both the FAA and Austra
90 Boeing1970 : About time. Won't be long now....Single pilot ops. Never understood why Honeywell didn't get the original LAAS contract. They already had an off the
91 Post contains images WarRI1 : Some intelligent people, obviously believed in Murphy's Law. Of course you obviously know better. To advocate that something is not fallible is a jok
92 Post contains images WarRI1 : As Adlai Stevenson said to the Russian Ambassador at the UN about missles in Cuba in 1962. "I am prepared to wait until Hell freezes over" Maybe not
93 Post contains images WarRI1 : Missiles, not missles. I also think there will be an uproar from people who live on the edge of airports who just may fear the possible UNGUIDED miss
94 Post contains links and images planemaker : Actually, it is already happening... NAJet 'Go' for single-pilot Eclipse 500 charter Charleston-based North American Jet has received US Federal Avia
95 Post contains images lightsaber : For someone like Embraer, who specializes in smaller planes, it only makes sense to pursue single pilot ops. let's face it, the next 50-seater must h
96 Post contains links planemaker : Fully agree! I don't think that many people on here are aware of the significant cost trail that an RJ has for crew costs beyond salary and benefits.
97 JoeCanuck : Single pilot ops, (or zero pilot ops), may happen 30 or 40 years in the future. What will stop it from happening sooner are crew losing jobs and passe
98 QatarA340 : Are they crazy???!? What if the pilot dies or suffers from a stroke! We hear instances of this happening every now and then!
99 HAL : planemaker, you are frustrating beyond belief. You ignore the human element of decision making in a rapidly changing environment, and call pilots usel
100 328JET : A big NO from my side. I would NEVER fly in such airplane or allow my family to do so. The risk of health problems of the remaining pilot is far too h
101 PPVRA : Aside from thorough back up plans, making sure you have a healthy, young pilot should make those chances drop dramatically. I see a lot of 50-year ol
102 Post contains images WarRI1 : [quote=JoeCanuck,reply=97]Single pilot ops, (or zero pilot ops), may happen 30 or 40 years in the future. What will stop it from happening sooner are
103 GoBoeing : Like how 90% of airport restrooms are engineered? Where the door to a stall opens in, and there is not enough room to make the luggage easily fit thr
104 PPVRA : One more thing: no passenger airline will ever be unmanned. Even pilot-less isn't unmanned. The standards are completely different. Look at the crazy
105 Post contains images WarRI1 : Absolutely correct, the advocates and engineers of FBW and SP, should be strapped in and made to do the flight testing of the system. No Parachutes a
106 Post contains images lightsaber : Stuff will still break. Lightning/wind/bad fuel will still happen. But it will be sufficient for a few 'control centers' globally to handle this inst
107 GoBoeing : Well I wish I had made a list on this past four-day trip that I just finished of all the things that failed at any given time. Sure we didn't have an
108 Post contains images lightsaber : Just to be clear, I'm arguing for single pilot ops. I believe for commercial ops, there will always be a pilot. Then we have a discussion. Planemaker
109 GoBoeing : I'm not sure the costs on a 50 seater can get much lower than they are already. In fact I'm not sure there would even be a point to an airline having
110 rheinwaldner : Murphys law is simply about the probability. Everything fails with a probability larger than 0. One man is no man. IMO the military RC planes are to
111 planemaker : I don't know why people on here revert to no-pilot ops when we have been discussing Single Pilot Ops the whole time (though I do think that there wil
112 rheinwaldner : Because regarding technology it is the same. The probability that one person quits duties is so large that the no-pilot case has to be implemented fu
113 GoBoeing : Right. It doesn't take too long to get anything approved by the FAA. Especially when it's the first time that it has been tried in 80+ years of passe
114 Post contains images lightsaber : They could be much lower. The engines for the 50 seaters are the easy mark... then a weight reduction. Then a maintenance cost reduction with a new d
115 PPVRA : I don't think these UAVs were even designed to be as safe as an airliner. There is nobody on board, so why spend all that extra money? A passenger ai
116 MaverickM11 : In 80 years, we've gone from dreaming of manned flight to 747s and Concorde; why is it such a stretch to believe that in another 80 years we couldn't
117 GoBoeing : In the last 50 years we've done nothing to the cruise speed or cruise altitude. We've added range to jets and made the interiors more plush. We've ta
118 Post contains images mrocktor : This speaks to the core reason why human control is unlikely to be removed completely from such a complex platform as an airliner. Systems can only w
119 HAL : Really? How much more than the salary are the benefits for the pilots? For retirement, most airlines are putting in about 7% of pilot's pay. So for a
120 MaverickM11 : There's no demand for a replacement; it's too costly and until you can figure out a way to hide the sonic boom, you'll have nowhere to fly it. That d
121 Post contains images HAL : Pretty much what I've been saying all along. HAL
122 JoeCanuck : One fly in the ointment is that any telemetry can be jammed. With the proper equipment, you could fly a fully laden airliner into a building without
123 rheinwaldner : The word just is nice! If you can realize automatic landings you are on a level regarding of technology that also could substitue the last pilot on-b
124 PPVRA : It's costly to maintain all of that. Remember that there are non-salary, non-benefit costs as well. I can't speak for the technology, and I'm sure th
125 MaverickM11 : But there's a incentive for lower costs, including but not limited to labor, whereas higher speed flight is essentially an guarantee of higher costs
126 mrocktor : Not true. The Phenom aircraft are the most automated light aircraft that exist. They are far, far more automated than a classic 737. Again false. The
127 JoeCanuck : That is not always the case...there are situations where single pilot could be more dangerous than no pilot. There is absolutely no doubt that having
128 Tugger : Everyone again is assuming that this would mean only one person in the plane able to pilot it but the truth will likely be different. The "Captain" wo
129 planemaker : It is interesting that everyone has thus far been able to only focus on salary and benefit costs... and have failed to realize the many other airline
130 Post contains links HAL : In the few seconds he has once the connection is made? Really? Then I really don't want to fly on one of your jets if that's your idea of how the sit
131 rheinwaldner : Ok, what I said is wrong. Of course there is automation onboard the Phenom (thus it is not 100% unautomated). What I meant was 100% on the level of c
132 lh526 : thanks but no thanks ... THIS is saving on the wrong end at its best!
133 rheinwaldner : In similar threads I mentioned the same thing too. Even the simple phase after the desicion in favour of river ditching would not be reasonably manag
134 lh526 : I dunno what this discussion is about ... whatever fraction of my ticket price goes to the pilots salary, I'm happy to pay this fraction for a two man
135 PPVRA : As for the "boredom" theory. . . from what I understand, NextGen should at least give them something else to do, no? Training, evaluation, lodging, me
136 WarRI1 : I could not agree more, the mantra, save money, at the expense of the human factor. Maybe we may see this in the movies, but I seriously doubt anytim
137 mrocktor : True, I had not interpreted your statements in this sense. It is also true that the 20% is enough to successfully operate any such aircraft with one
138 GoBoeing : 137 posts and you guys still don't get it. Technology and pilot incapacitation is not the issue. It's all about redundancy and CRM.
139 mrocktor : Likewise, you don't get it. Is it not redundancy if one of the human pilots (or both) are not actually on the plane but flying it remotely? Yes it is.
140 jfklganyc : "Reality check: By any reasonable measure any CAT3 capable aircraft can safely fly itself from takeoff to landing today, given reasonable environmenta
141 HAL : So when you eliminate the ability to perform CRM because there is no 'C' (Crew) left, how does it work in the emergency situation again? It won't, an
142 GoBoeing : It's pointless. These engineers just don't get it. They build the things but you have to sit on the jumpseat for 200-300 hours of regular line flying
143 Post contains images rheinwaldner : I am an engineer and I get it ! My fantasy that creatively could imagine solutions to the automation-problem (and I am a very visionary engineer in w
144 planemaker : HAL, you honestly do not understand information technology and its trajectory... and, just as important, actuarial science and economics.
145 JoeCanuck : The technology for single pilot ops has been around for at least 30 years and so far not one airline has been clamouring for the rights...neither are
146 planemaker : Only components of it have. And they didn't clamour for the change of 4 to 3 and then 3 to 4 crew, either. Airlines will want it when it is available
147 HAL : No planemaker, I do understand information technology, actuarial science, and economics. What you have failed to understand is that safety trumps eco
148 JoeCanuck : Actually, airlines were very much behind the adoption of the now standard two person cockpit. I'll believe it when I hear it from them. Until then, i
149 Post contains images lightsaber : Instead of benefits, I should have said fully loaded costs (salary, benefits, training, cost to maintain records to prove compliance, rent of the var
150 JoeCanuck : Military pilots are specially selected and trained to deal with single pilot ops. As it turns out, very few pilots actually qualify and most military
151 planemaker : You don't or you wouldn't be saying the things such as...
152 Post contains images HAL : Then I guess we agree to disagree. But I'm still waiting for proof from your vague statements too. HAL
153 planemaker : I've provided numerous facts and links showing that SP Ops are an inevitability... nothing vague. On the other hand, you have been arguing from an em
154 JoeCanuck : Not quite. For example, if the power cuts out on a train, it won't plummet 5 miles to earth. The train rides on a track. It's quite difficult too get
155 GoBoeing : You get it. Not sure why some others on here don't, but they'll see as the years go by and no changes to the two-pilot crew are made. It is going to
156 lightsaber : Not for the ones in the fleet today. For these RJ's that 'ground geek' will be able to take control. That technology is being tested today and I woul
157 PPVRA : What about the recent incident with AA and the flight attendant helping land the aircraft? While the pilots weren't completely out yet, they could hav
158 Post contains images planemaker : You misinterpreted my point. I was pointing out that in one city one transit system had no drivers and yet in another city the exact same transit sys
159 JoeCanuck : And anyone who understands logic knows that until something actually exists, it may never exist. Planes have had the capability of flying themselves
160 Post contains images lightsaber : I remember the debates going from 3 pilots to 2. So I have a feeling the arguments will be the same. Anyhow, I'll keep reading this thread, but it se
161 Post contains links planemaker : It exists... there already are commercial SP ops. There already are airlines flying SP ops. Airlines don't have to "ask" for SP ops... they'll take i
162 JoeCanuck : How's this for insight? None of them fly passengers. What's the longest flight? So far, it's just commuter props and cargo. Guess what? I fly single
163 planemaker : No, they only drive legislation... that is all! Not understanding the significance of a Congressional Cacaus promoting UAVs illustrates that you don'
164 JoeCanuck : Just when I think I'm out, they drag me back in... The fact that you didn't understand that I clearly meant that UAV's don't carry passengers shows th
165 Post contains images HAL : So repeating something over and over makes it true? Well, of course we know there's single pilot ops today - we've never ever said there wasn't. What
166 HAL : So really, only one flight in the last decade needed the remote backup? Thank you very, very much for making my point that this is a technology that
167 Post contains links rheinwaldner : Another incident that would not have worked by SOP: The BA B744 That Nearly Stalled At JNB, Verdict (by oly720man Jun 30 2010 in Civil Aviation) B.t.w
168 Post contains links lightsaber : Ummm... this is an Embraer thread. See below. It looks like this is being pushed by AirTaxi opperators. Fedex and UPS apparently: http://www.airlinep
169 Post contains links PPVRA : But it nearly needed it. It almost turned into the Helios scenario. http://diydrones.com/profiles/blogs/fred-smith-fedex-wants-uavs That would be ast
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