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OAG Changes 6/25/2010:9K/AM/AS/CO/DL/F9/HA/UA/WN  
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7191 posts, RR: 13
Posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 7537 times:

This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now.

How to read:
ABE-MDT 3>2 APR means a reduction in one roundtrip from 3 to 2 for April only
ABE-MDT 3.8>2.7 APR-JUN This is the raw format of the data which sometimes I'm too lazy to retype. It means that over a month they were averaging a little less than 4 trips per day and now it's a little less than 3 per day. So, basically they cancelled 8 flights per week or so. Airlines are doing A LOT of non-daily ops now, so these fractions are pervasive.
ABE-MDT 4>6 MAY- means an increase from 4 to 6 roundtrips starting in May and continuing
ABE-MDT 4>6 MAY-JUN, 5>6 JUL means the change is only for the stated period May to June and then a different change for July in the same route

9K
ACK-MVY 3>5 AUG-

AM
IAH-MTY 0>2 JUL- E145 EQP

AS
DEN-PDX 1>0 SEP- Now 4 becomes 3 AS/UA/WN/F9
SEA-STL 0>1 SEP-


CO
CLE-JAX 1>0 OCT-NOV Start delayed till DEC
CLE-MCO 3>2 OCT-NOV
FLL-NAS 1>2 NOV-
GUM-KIJ 2/WK>0 OCT-
IAH-JAX 6>5 NOV
IAH-MOB 6>5 NOV
IAH-MSP 6>5 NOV
IAH-SAN 7>6 NOV
IAH-SJD 3>2 OCT-NOV

DL
ATL-BNA 10>12 NOV-

Wondering if bookings are moving toward ECP and MSY, and away from the middle...Also, notice these changes all have a different close-in start date (except MSY). That tells me they are bookings related and were done as a group. Don't know the eqp type changes.
ATL-GPT 7>6 AUG-
ATL-MOB 10>9 AUG-
ATL-MSY 11>12 NOV-
ATL-PNS 8>7 AUG-OCT, 9>7 NOV-
ATL-VPS 11>10 AUG-
CVG-LEX 3>2 OCT-
CVG-MST 2>1 NOV-
CVG-PIT 3>2 OCT-
CVG-RSW 2>3 JAN-
DTW-MCO 7>6 DEC-
DTW-PBI 2>3 DEC-
DTW-SNA 1>0 SEP-
JFK-SNA 0>1 SEP-
MEM-SFO 1>3/WK NOV-
MSP-MEX 0>1 DEC-
MSP-RSW 3>4 DEC-
SLC-BZN 4>5 SEP-
SLC-MEX 4/WK>1 OCT-

F9
DEN-ZIH 0>1/WK JAN- NO XMAS?
IND-CUN 0>1/WK NOV-
MCI-SJD 0>1/WK DEC-

HA
LAS-OGG 0>2/WK OCT-

UA
ORD-YVR 4>3 NOV-

WN
I posted these last week before they were in OAG, so they are duped below.

All from NOV-
BWI-LAX 1>0
FLL-BDL 0>1
FLL-MCI 0>1
LAS-ISP 1>0
LAS-ORF 1>0
MKE-TPA 0>1
BNA-OAK 1>0
BNA-PVD 1>0
BNA-SEA 1>0
MSY-LAX 0>1

Full list, all NOV-
Fractions show non-daily flight changes...
ABQ-BWI 2.0>1.5
ABQ-LAS 5.7>5.1
ABQ-SAN 2.7>1.9
ALB-BWI 5.5>4.7
ALB-MCO 1.8>2.5
BDL-FLL 0.0>0.9
BDL-MCO 2.0>3.0
BDL-TPA 0.8>1.9
BHM-DAL 2.5>3.0
BNA-JAX 3.7>2.8
BNA-MCI 3.5>2.7
BNA-MSY 2.0>3.0
BNA-OAK 0.8>0.0
BNA-PVD 1.0>0.0
BNA-SEA 0.8>0.0
BOI-RNO 2.5>1.7
BOS-MDW 5.0>4.4
BUF-BWI 6.4>5.7
BUF-LAS 1.8>0.9
BUF-TPA 1.0>1.9
BUR-LAS 10.7>10.3
BWI-ABQ 2.0>1.5
BWI-ALB 5.4>4.7
BWI-AUS 2.0>2.5
BWI-BDL 7.4>6.6
BWI-BUF 6.4>5.3
BWI-JAX 2.8>3.8
BWI-LAS 4.0>2.7
BWI-LAX 1.0>0.0
BWI-MDW 6.8>6.0
BWI-MHT 8.5>6.7
BWI-PBI 1.8>2.3
BWI-PVD 8.4>7.8
BWI-SDF 3.8>2.9
BWI-TPA 4.8>4.4
CLE-STL 1.0>1.5
CMH-MCO 1.8>2.7
CMH-MDW 6.5>5.8
DAL-BHM 2.5>3.0
DAL-LBB 5.5>5.0
DAL-MAF 5.4>4.8
DAL-MCI 8.0>8.8
DAL-MSY 5.5>6.4
DEN-SEA 3.0>3.5
ELP-SAT 3.4>2.5
FLL-BDL 0.0>0.9
FLL-ISP 2.0>3.0
FLL-JAX 3.7>4.7
FLL-MCI 0.0>1.0
FLL-MCO 3.8>4.7
FLL-MDW 2.8>4.0
FLL-MSY 1.0>2.0
FLL-PVD 1.0>1.6
HOU-AUS 4.7>4.3
HOU-HRL 6.2>5.7
HOU-OKC 3.7>3.0
HOU-PHL 1.0>1.5
IND-BWI 2.7>3.3
IND-MDW 3.8>3.1
ISP-FLL 2.0>2.9
ISP-LAS 1.0>0.0
ISP-MCO 4.7>4.1
ISP-PBI 2.0>2.7
ISP-TPA 1.8>2.5
JAX-BNA 3.7>2.6
JAX-BWI 2.8>3.8
JAX-FLL 3.7>4.5
LAS-ABQ 5.5>5.0
LAS-BUF 2.0>1.0
LAS-BWI 4.0>2.9
LAS-DEN 8.4>7.9
LAS-ISP 1.0>0.0
LAS-LAX 11.4>10.9
LAS-MDW 8.7>8.3
LAS-OMA 2.8>1.9
LAS-ONT 7.5>6.7
LAS-ORF 1.0>0.2
LAS-SAN 11.5>10.6
LAS-SLC 6.5>5.3
LAX-BWI 1.0>0.0
LAX-MSY 0.0>1.0
LAX-OAK 14.7>12.5
LAX-RNO 2.7>2.2
LBB-DAL 5.5>5.0
LIT-DAL 6.2>5.7
MCI-ABQ 1.8>1.3
MCI-BNA 3.5>2.8
MCI-DAL 7.9>9.1
MCI-FLL 0.0>1.0
MCI-MDW 9.4>8.8
MCI-TPA 1.0>1.8
MCO-ALB 1.8>2.5
MCO-BDL 1.8>3.0
MCO-CMH 2.0>3.0
MCO-FLL 3.8>4.7
MCO-MKE 1.0>1.9
MCO-MSY 3.7>4.2
MCO-PVD 4.8>4.3
MDW-BWI 6.7>6.1
MDW-CMH 6.4>5.5
MDW-FLL 3.0>4.0
MDW-IND 3.7>3.1
MDW-ISP 3.7>2.9
MDW-MSY 1.0>1.5
MDW-OAK 2.8>3.5
MDW-OMA 5.5>4.8
MDW-PDX 2.0>1.2
MDW-RDU 2.8>3.3
MDW-RSW 2.0>2.7
MDW-SDF 4.5>4.0
MDW-SEA 3.0>1.9
MDW-STL 9.2>8.4
MDW-TPA 3.7>4.6
MHT-BWI 8.5>6.6
MKE-MCO 1.0>2.0
MKE-TPA 0.0>1.0
MSP-STL 3.0>2.6
MSY-BNA 2.0>3.0
MSY-DAL 5.5>6.2
MSY-FLL 1.0>2.0
MSY-LAX 0.0>1.0
MSY-MCO 3.7>4.3
MSY-MDW 1.0>1.5
MSY-TPA 2.8>3.5
OAK-BNA 0.8>0.0
OAK-BUR 12.2>11.5
OAK-LAS 7.8>7.4
OAK-LAX 14.5>12.7
OAK-MDW 2.8>3.5
OAK-ONT 7.4>6.8
OAK-SAN 11.5>10.4
OAK-SNA 6.7>5.9
OKC-HOU 3.7>3.1
OMA-LAS 2.7>2.0
OMA-MDW 5.5>4.8
ONT-LAS 7.5>6.5
ONT-PHX 7.7>6.7
ORF-LAS 1.0>0.2
PBI-BWI 2.0>2.5
PBI-ISP 1.8>2.9
PDX-MDW 1.8>1.2
PDX-RNO 2.5>2.0
PHL-PBI 1.0>1.5
PHX-LAX 10.2>9.6
PHX-ONT 7.4>6.7
PHX-SAN 11.2>10.3
PHX-SEA 2.7>3.5
PHX-SMF 5.5>5.0
PHX-STL 2.8>3.3
PIT-TPA 1.8>2.3
PVD-BNA 1.0>0.0
PVD-BWI 8.7>7.5
PVD-FLL 1.0>1.6
RDU-MDW 2.8>3.3
RNO-BOI 2.4>1.7
RNO-OAK 2.8>2.3
RNO-PDX 2.7>2.2
RNO-PHX 2.7>2.2
RSW-MDW 2.0>2.9
SAN-ABQ 2.8>1.9
SAN-LAS 11.4>10.7
SAN-OAK 11.7>10.5
SAN-SMF 9.9>9.1
SAT-ELP 3.5>2.3
SDF-BWI 3.8>3.0
SEA-BNA 1.0>0.0
SEA-MDW 2.8>1.9
SEA-PHX 2.5>3.6
SEA-SJC 2.8>1.9
SJC-LAX 9.2>8.8
SJC-SEA 2.8>1.9
SLC-LAS 6.5>5.3
SMF-PHX 5.5>5.0
SMF-SNA 5.7>5.1
SNA-SFO 5.7>5.3
SNA-SJC 6.5>6.1
STL-CLE 1.0>1.5
STL-MDW 9.2>8.4
TPA-BDL 0.8>1.9
TPA-BUF 1.0>2.0
TPA-ISP 1.8>2.5
TPA-MCI 1.0>1.8
TPA-MDW 3.8>4.5
TPA-MKE 0.0>1.0
TPA-PIT 1.8>2.3
TPA-STL 2.0>2.5


Just for educational purposes, I thought I'd post AA's day of week cancel down for this week. There are a few of day of week adds, but mostly not. I don't intend to do this very often because it's fairly meaningless, but every couple of weeks virtually all the airlines now go through their advance schedules and cancel weak performing flights. This is AA's January cancel down that was loaded this week. I filter through it so as not to post a bunch of stuff that is generally irrelevant, but I thought I'd give people an idea of how big this cancel down thing is getting. Individual airlines are cutting 50-100 legs per day on poor days every time they load their schedules. That's as many as 3,000 flights per month per load. It's very disruptive for people with advance bookings.


ATL-DFW 9.7>9.5
AUS-DFW 15.0>14.8
AUS-ORD 3.8>4.0
BOS-DFW 8.4>8.2
BWI-DFW 6.0>5.8
CLT-DFW 4.8>4.5
DFW-ATL 9.7>9.5
DFW-AUS 15.0>14.8
DFW-BWI 6.0>5.8
DFW-CLT 4.8>4.5
DFW-EWR 5.8>5.5
DFW-HSV 3.0>2.8
DFW-IAD 5.8>5.5
DFW-IAH 6.0>5.8
DFW-IND 4.8>5.0
DFW-JAX 4.0>3.8
DFW-LAS 10.9>10.7
DFW-LAX 16.0>15.7
DFW-LGA 14.2>13.5
DFW-MSY 5.8>6.0
DFW-MTY 3.8>4.0
DFW-ORD 16.7>16.5
DFW-PHX 9.0>8.8
DFW-RIC 2.8>3.0
DFW-SAN 8.8>9.0
DFW-SAT 15.0>14.8
DFW-SDF 4.0>3.8
DFW-SEA 7.8>8.0
DFW-SFO 9.0>8.7
DFW-SNA 10.4>10.5
EWR-DFW 5.8>5.5
HSV-DFW 3.0>2.8
IAD-DFW 5.8>5.5
IAH-DFW 6.0>5.8
IND-DFW 4.8>5.0
JAX-DFW 4.0>3.8
LAS-DFW 10.9>10.7
LAX-DFW 16.0>15.7
LAX-ORD 10.0>9.8
LGA-DFW 14.2>13.9
LGA-ORD 15.7>15.9
MCI-ORD 7.0>6.8
MSP-ORD 7.8>7.7
MSY-DFW 5.8>6.0
MSY-ORD 2.8>3.0
ORD-AUS 3.8>4.0
ORD-BOS 8.4>8.5
ORD-DFW 16.7>16.5
ORD-EWR 7.5>7.7
ORD-LAX 10.0>9.8
ORD-LGA 15.7>16.0
ORD-MCI 7.0>6.8
ORD-MSP 7.8>7.7
ORD-STL 8.5>8.7
PDX-DFW 4.8>5.0
PHX-DFW 9.0>8.8
RIC-DFW 2.8>3.0
SAN-DFW 8.8>9.0
SAT-DFW 15.0>14.8
SDF-DFW 4.0>3.8
SEA-DFW 7.8>8.0
SFO-DFW 9.0>8.7
SNA-DFW 10.4>10.5
STL-ORD 8.4>8.7

32 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6608 posts, RR: 24
Reply 1, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 7473 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
ATL-GPT 7>6 AUG-
ATL-MOB 10>9 AUG-
ATL-MSY 11>12 NOV-
ATL-PNS 8>7 AUG-OCT, 9>7 NOV-
ATL-VPS 11>10 AUG-

These cuts aren't actually that unusual. DL always makes a cut to these markets around this time. The amount of capacity DL is offering this September is in line with last September...and even September's before that.


User currently onlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6570 posts, RR: 50
Reply 2, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 7388 times:

12 flights is the most DL has ever offered between ATL and MSY. It'll be interesting to see if they stick with that schedule year-round. It's interesting that the 12th flight is being added in September, which historically has been the slowest month in New Orleans in terms of conventions and overall tourism.

User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7191 posts, RR: 13
Reply 3, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 7088 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 1):
These cuts aren't actually that unusual. DL always makes a cut to these markets around this time. The amount of capacity DL is offering this September is in line with last September...and even September's before that.

I don't doubt the capacity is flat with last year, but to do those cuts just 60 days out is unusual. I severely doubt they make the same cutbacks so close in the last two years. In general DL is up in Fall capacity this year versus 2010, so if they are flat in those markets it is still worse than the network as a whole. I bet ECP and MSY are the drivers.

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 2):
It's interesting that the 12th flight is being added in September, which historically has been the slowest month in New Orleans in terms of conventions and overall tourism.

I don't doubt it isn't a great month, but I had the impression that Vegas and New Orleans are relatively better in September than other places. Meaning that if nationwide September traffic is down 25% from July, that those two cities are down less than 25%.


User currently offlinediverdave From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 331 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 6940 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CVG-LEX 3>2 OCT-
CVG-MST 2>1 NOV-
CVG-PIT 3>2 OCT-
CVG-RSW 2>3 JAN-

Wow, thanks for posting that list!  

A little more bleeding at CVG.  

David


User currently onlineMSYtristar From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 6570 posts, RR: 50
Reply 5, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 6885 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 3):
I don't doubt it isn't a great month, but I had the impression that Vegas and New Orleans are relatively better in September than other places. Meaning that if nationwide September traffic is down 25% from July, that those two cities are down less than 25%.

Could be. Also I've been reading monthly reports from the CVB stating that hotel occupancy for 2010 is well above 2009 on a month by month basis. They released the numbers for May a couple of days ago, and MSY was #7 out of the top 25 U.S markets and 11% better than last year in terms of hotel occupancy. So, things have certainly improved.

Just in case anyone's interested in this sort of stuff...
http://www.strglobal.com/


User currently offlineChrisNH From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 4116 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 6765 times:

First, thanks as always to the OP for these threads. These are the first I look for here.

Southwest seems to be bludgeoning Las Vegas. I guess they finally agreed: The economy out there is horrible and people can't gamble money they don't have (although it seems to be a neat trick that usually fails).


User currently offlineflyguy89 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1924 posts, RR: 21
Reply 7, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 6720 times:

Quoting diverdave (Reply 4):
A little more bleeding at CVG.

Doesn't look like any significant cuts, it appears to be mostly seasonal adjustments.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CVG-MST 2>1 NOV-

I'm assuming this is a typo?


User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7591 posts, RR: 27
Reply 8, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 6685 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
but every couple of weeks virtually all the airlines now go through their advance schedules and cancel weak performing flights. This is AA's January cancel down that was loaded this week. I filter through it so as not to post a bunch of stuff that is generally irrelevant, but I thought I'd give people an idea of how big this cancel down thing is getting. Individual airlines are cutting 50-100 legs per day on poor days every time they load their schedules. That's as many as 3,000 flights per month per load. It's very disruptive for people with advance bookings.

It makes sense though. Demand is not constant in by day of the week, time of day, and even by market. It makes sense, even more so during the slower season to remove non-peak flights from the schedule, whether it be a Tuesday, a Saturday evening, or a Sunday morning. CO did this a lot for years, and now AA and DL really seem to be operating with that mindset.

As for advanced bookings, the lead time is surprisingly low in most cases. Leisure-heavy routes tend to be much farther out but business markets see the majority of passengers booking less than a month out.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6608 posts, RR: 24
Reply 9, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 6646 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 3):
I bet ECP and MSY are the drivers.

I'm betting the oil spill is a bigger driver as it is killing some leisure travel demand.

Quoting enilria (Reply 3):
In general DL is up in Fall capacity this year versus 2010

DL's only up like 2-3% domestically....meaning most markets are actually still flat.


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7191 posts, RR: 13
Reply 10, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 6646 times:

Quoting diverdave (Reply 4):
Wow, thanks for posting that list!
A little more bleeding at CVG.

My thoughts exactly. Every week it's a little more.

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 5):
Could be. Also I've been reading monthly reports from the CVB stating that hotel occupancy for 2010 is well above 2009 on a month by month basis. They released the numbers for May a couple of days ago, and MSY was #7 out of the top 25 U.S markets and 11% better than last year in terms of hotel occupancy. So, things have certainly improved.

Glad to see some good news for New Orleans.

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 6):
First, thanks as always to the OP for these threads. These are the first I look for here.
Southwest seems to be bludgeoning Las Vegas.

Thanks. My thoughts too. Vegas is bizarre to me...and an opportunity for somebody.
US closes their hub there.
WN has apparently decided DEN will be their regional "hub" and LAS is now less unique in their network.
Allegiant isn't growing at LAS any more and won't fly to the markets US vacated because they are too big.

LAS is in a world of hurt. I don't believe it's all demand related.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 7):
Doesn't look like any significant cuts, it appears to be mostly seasonal adjustments.

RSW is seasonal. PIT, etc. are simply cuts.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 7):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CVG-MST 2>1 NOV-

I'm assuming this is a typo?

SORRY
CVG-MSY 2>1 NOV-

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 8):
It makes sense though. Demand is not constant in by day of the week, time of day, and even by market.


User currently offlineSlcDeltaRUmd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3462 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 6632 times:

Does this mean SLC-MEX on dl goes from 4 a week to once a week or daily?

User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7191 posts, RR: 13
Reply 12, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 6587 times:

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 8):
It makes sense though. Demand is not constant in by day of the week, time of day, and even by market.

Whoops missed that one and edit always screws things up.

So, here is why I don't like it. You sell a bunch of flights and take bookings knowing that hundreds of flights are going to be weened. If these flights are weak they should use historical data and never sell them in the first place (or at least delete them a lot more than 60 or 90 days out when 10-15% of the airplane is already sold.

If a company purposely sells a product that they don't intend to provide and accepts money for that product I would say it constitutes fraud/bait and switch/whatever you wanna call it. It's basically an involuntary denied boarding executed two months before departure. IMHO, the airlines should not be able to cancel a flight for economic reasons within 100 days of departure. If it sucks they shouldn't have sold it in the first place. A ticket is a contract to provide transportation at the time and date specified and it should not be broken for anything other than operational reasons.

Is there anything in the regs that supports my position? Anybody know?


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6608 posts, RR: 24
Reply 13, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 6524 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 12):
A ticket is a contract to provide transportation at the time and date specified and it should not be broken for anything other than operational reasons.

If that's the case, then overselling should also be illegal since the airline is selling seats that don't exist (since they've already been sold to someone else).

Quoting enilria (Reply 12):
If these flights are weak they should use historical data and never sell them in the first place (or at least delete them a lot more than 60 or 90 days out when 10-15% of the airplane is already sold.

Problem is that with the way the economy changes, booking history from one year ago may not be that useful. The challenge the airlines are also facing is that bookings have been moving closer in. And keep in mind that most of the flights being culled don't even have 10-15% of their seats booked, hence why they are being culled.


User currently offlineSNCntry32 From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 1516 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 6468 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
MSP-MEX 0>1 DEC-

So DL go the approval for MSP MEX then?



Long Live Memphis!
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7191 posts, RR: 13
Reply 15, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 6229 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 13):
If that's the case, then overselling should also be illegal since the airline is selling seats that don't exist (since they've already been sold to someone else).

It is illegal in essence. If a passenger does not give up his seat voluntarily, the government imposes a fine paid to the passenger for being involuntarily displaced. This is exactly the same and there should be a similar means of discouragement to go fishing for bookings and then leave people high and dry.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 13):
Problem is that with the way the economy changes, booking history from one year ago may not be that useful. The challenge the airlines are also facing is that bookings have been moving closer in. And keep in mind that most of the flights being culled don't even have 10-15% of their seats booked, hence why they are being culled.

I see the airline's perspecive and if they were simply dropping 1 route to add another I'd agree, but that's not what's happening. These are discretionary changes that are occurring solely for the economic benefit of the airline. There shoud be some prohibition against it. What keeps FL from publishing 15 flights from ATL to LAX and then cancelling them down to 3 in order to make sure the 3 remaining are full? That's what is going on, it's just not as obvious because it is spread out amongst thousands of routes.

Quoting SNCntry32 (Reply 14):
So DL go the approval for MSP MEX then?

You make a good point. I don't believe they have approval yet. It would seem to me they are subject to fine for selling without approval.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6608 posts, RR: 24
Reply 16, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 6144 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 15):
That's what is going on, it's just not as obvious because it is spread out amongst thousands of routes.

Yes and no. In many cases, the passengers may only have their schedule shifted by minutes. Your search through OAG doesn't show how flight schedules may be tweaked when flights are dropped. I think you make a good point overall, but unless the tweaks are really inconveniencing passengers, I don't think you'll see the FAA do much.

Quoting enilria (Reply 15):
It would seem to me they are subject to fine for selling without approval.

IIRC, you can sell the seats as long as you clearly note that the route is "subject to government approval." If you look at DL's website, it is clearly denoted for the MSP-MEX route.


User currently onlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5274 posts, RR: 24
Reply 17, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 6028 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SLC-MEX 4/WK>1 OCT-

So 4 weekly to daily? Nice to see this route seemingly doing well.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlineWeb From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 427 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 5822 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
BWI-LAX 1>0

Is UA the only airline left on this route? FL is down and out, and now WN. I find this surprising.



Next flight: GRR-ORD-PDX-SEA-ORD-GRR
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6608 posts, RR: 24
Reply 19, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 5676 times:

Quoting Web (Reply 18):
Is UA the only airline left on this route? FL is down and out, and now WN. I find this surprising.

Yes. Though I believe FL is planning to return in the spring.

FL started BWI-LAX seasonally. Then, they went year-round last year. WN then (re)launched the route which drove FL to downgrade back to seasonal. Then, WN decided they weren't interested in flying it year round either.

You would think BWI-LAX could handle a bit more competition....particularly since BWI's nearest competitor (DCA) can only have one flight to LAX. Of course, IAD had a lot of LAX service with UA/AA/VX and B6 doing IAD-LGB.


User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7591 posts, RR: 27
Reply 20, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 5027 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 15):
It is illegal in essence. If a passenger does not give up his seat voluntarily, the government imposes a fine paid to the passenger for being involuntarily displaced. This is exactly the same and there should be a similar means of discouragement to go fishing for bookings and then leave people high and dry.
Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 16):
Yes and no. In many cases, the passengers may only have their schedule shifted by minutes. Your search through OAG doesn't show how flight schedules may be tweaked when flights are dropped. I think you make a good point overall, but unless the tweaks are really inconveniencing passengers, I don't think you'll see the FAA do much.

The airline will notify you of a schedule change and if the alternative is outside of a specific time-period you usually can get a refund or exchange for future travel. They will offer you options if the rebooking is optional.

So what is the alternative? Airline can only put up for sale what they are going to fly. That means one of two things:
1) The airline will no longer put flights up for sale a year in advance, instead you would most likely see them shorten the reservations window to


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7191 posts, RR: 13
Reply 21, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 4940 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 16):
Yes and no. In many cases, the passengers may only have their schedule shifted by minutes.

I'm not talking about that at all. I'm only talking about day of week cancellations. Slight schedule changes of a few minute are not an issue.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 16):
IIRC, you can sell the seats as long as you clearly note that the route is "subject to government approval."

Not true. You cannot sell without U.S. DOT approval without being subject to a per reservation taken fine. You may sell without foreign government approval with the note "subject to government approval". Frontier was fined for selling one of its point-to-point Cancun routes that it was awarded at the same time the fine was announced.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 20):
The airline will notify you of a schedule change and if the alternative is outside of a specific time-period you usually can get a refund or exchange for future travel.

A refund is worthless in most cases. For example, it is highly likely you could lose money if the substitute schedule does not work for you. They only waive the change fee, not fare difference if you don't take the flight they put you on. Say, for example, you are flying a route that only has one connection per day and that one gets broken. They rebook you to the day before. They won't pay for the hotel, not will they put you on another airline. They will refund you and now the fare on the other airline could be much higher. Again, all this is much more of a problem when they change the schedules inside 100 days when fares start to go up and down. If they did a normal schedule change outside 100 days fare sales aren't that common so at least the fares won't be bouncing around.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 20):

So what is the alternative? Airline can only put up for sale what they are going to fly. That means one of two things:
1) The airline will no longer put flights up for sale a year in advance

As I said they shouldn't allow economic cancellations inside 100 days or maybe 60 days. Something like that. That would have no effect on selling tickets 330 days in advance. The problem is that the airlines want to cancel the flight as late as possible so they can see how many people are going to be on the plane. If they cancel it at 120 days as opposed to 60 days prior they have much less of an idea of how many people will be on the flight. but it effects many fewer people, gives them more time to find other options, and decreases the likelihood of massive fare changes.


User currently offlineTOMMY767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 8
Reply 22, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 4904 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 19):
You would think BWI-LAX could handle a bit more competition....particularly since BWI's nearest competitor (DCA) can only have one flight to LAX. Of course, IAD had a lot of LAX service with UA/AA/VX and B6 doing IAD-LGB.

Maybe not as much of a route as people seem to think? UA seems to handle it just fine.



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently offlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7591 posts, RR: 27
Reply 23, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 4904 times:

But you are complaining about a change 180 days out. By and large for the most part they are making changes more than 90 days out. 90 days out most airlines generally lock in frequency, and still play with equipment types to closer in to tweak capacity. Even so, equipment generally needs to be locked down 45-60 days out for crew bidding & fleet planning purposes.

Plus, many of the changes are removing a frequency or two from markets with multiple flights per day. So instead of flying 7x on a Sunday, they may be flying 6x. How is this any different or worse than completely exiting a city pair or market all together?

So essentially every airline in your mind is bad for adjusting their schedule for flights that they have already put on sale. Then they shouldn't be allowed to do what you post in your very thread.

[Edited 2010-06-22 16:59:41]

User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6608 posts, RR: 24
Reply 24, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 4788 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 21):
I'm only talking about day of week cancellations.

But many day of the week cancellations shift people to alternate flights that are only a small difference in time.

Quoting enilria (Reply 21):
You cannot sell without U.S. DOT approval without being subject to a per reservation taken fine. You may sell without foreign government approval with the note "subject to government approval".

Sorry, I disagree. Many airlines have been selling tickets without U.S. government approval and they don't get fined.

Quoting enilria (Reply 21):
Say, for example, you are flying a route that only has one connection per day and that one gets broken. They rebook you to the day before.

This rarely ever happens.

Quoting enilria (Reply 21):
Again, all this is much more of a problem when they change the schedules inside 100 days when fares start to go up and down.

Outside of some holiday periods and some long-haul international, fares don't rise much until you get under 30 days.


25 Cubsrule : At least within reasonable bounds - say a six hour window on either side of the booked flight - that is untrue. We can see how true this is by lookin
26 Post contains images dsuairptman : GPT looses a flight and gains the A319 for mainline service. First time this type will service GPT for a legit commercial service, (Canada 3000 had A3
27 greenair727 : Is this a new route to start in Dec (instead of Oct) or is it a winter-only route that comes back annually?
28 enilria : I just posted that one as discussion fodder because AA didn't really have any substantive schedule moves so I didn't have to remove the real changes
29 Cubsrule : On what airline? I've never had such a problem - nor have I had an agent give me a hard time about changing flights. When I flew US from CHI a lot, t
30 FlyPNS1 : This example rarely ever happens. As I and Cubs have pointed out, these cancellations are typically done to routes with high frequency....precisely t
31 PSU.DTW.SCE : No I don't look at the raw OAG data every week, nor do I care to. I appreciate the effort that you do week in, week out, however I don't bother to lo
32 enilria : Well, look what airlineblogspot is reporting: UNITED reduce Los Angeles – Baltimore from Nov 2010 From 04NOV10, UNITED is reducing Los Angeles –
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