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Brazil-Colombia Bilateral Amended, Bloodbath Ahead  
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3703 posts, RR: 19
Posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 5074 times:

The Brazil-Colombia bilateral agreement has been amended some days ago after an amendment just last year. For years, the bilateral agreement was restricted to daily frequencies to each side, but last year a staggering increase was accorded. 21 additional weekly combination frequencies would become available, 7 in July 2009, 7 in July 2011 and 7 in July 2012.

On the Colombian side, Aerocivil allocated last year all frequencies that were supposed to become available as follow:
AeroRepública: 3 in 2009, 2 in 2011, 2 in 2012
Aires: 4 in 2009, 1 in 2011, 2 2012
Avianca: 4 in 2011, 3 in 2012

On Brazilian, no airline was interested in the new frequencies until OceanAir became Avianca Brasil and applied for them. TAM decided to also apply with a competitive application, so the Brazilian ANAC decided to try to amend the bilateral agreement through correspondence, since the last amendment already implied that the additional frequencies could be created earlier if needed. The Colombian Aerocivil agreed to the amendment, so now the 7 additional frequencies that were supposed to become available in July 2011 are immediately available. The 7 of July 2012 will now become available in January 2011.

Now, effective yesterday, the 14 new Brazilian frequencies are allocated as follow

TAM: 7 immediately
Avianca Brasil: 7 immediately

Even though the bilateral agreement was amended last year, all the new frequencies are still unused despite already allocated. I would blame Aerocivil for that, since that staggered allocation wouldn't allow any player to start daily services until 2012. Aires though was already moving to start services, since their authorization by the Brazilian ANAC was issued just last month.

Now with the prospect of all players starting daily services in the next 6 months, we could see up to 35 frequencies being added between Brazil and Colombia in a short period of time, with 4 new players, or 3 and a half, since Avianca Brasil doesn't really count.

Link to the Brazil-Colombia bilateral agreement: http://portal.aerocivil.gov.co/porta...c_convenios_comerciales/Brasil.doc

32 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8370 posts, RR: 7
Reply 1, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 4883 times:
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AN Avianca from each country and Aires duking it out. The list of grounded Colombian airlines will continue: AeroCondor, Aerotol and .....

User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11438 posts, RR: 58
Reply 2, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 4843 times:
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Thanks for the news Coiote,

Besides the 2 new players, what called my attention was the fact that Brazil and Colombia allowed 5th freedom rights for a potential BOG-Brazil-DXB !

Looking how Canada and Germany protects themselves i can only say that EK is very agressive !



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8370 posts, RR: 7
Reply 3, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 4782 times:
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Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 2):
Besides the 2 new players, what called my attention was the fact that Brazil and Colombia allowed 5th freedom rights for a potential BOG-Brazil-DXB !

BOG-GRU-DUBAI ? Its very understandable for European airlines and Qatar Airways to fry from their hubs to Sao Paulo and on to Buenos Aires. That is 3 hours flying time, BOG to GRU is 6 hours. No one has ever done that. IF an airline from teh Muslim world did fly to BOG( very low odds) it would stay north of the equator and fly via Europe.

IF Emirates were to fly to a country with coast line on teh Caribean, Mexico would be first on that list.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11438 posts, RR: 58
Reply 4, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 4728 times:
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Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):
BOG-GRU-DUBAI ? Its very understandable for European airlines and Qatar Airways to fry from their hubs to Sao Paulo and on to Buenos Aires. That is 3 hours flying time, BOG to GRU is 6 hours. No one has ever done that. IF an airline from teh Muslim world did fly to BOG( very low odds) it would stay north of the equator and fly via Europe.

IF Emirates were to fly to a country with coast line on teh Caribean, Mexico would be first on that list


It's not said will be GRU. Could be Northeast, could be GIG, could be BSB.
They don't need to run the route, but they have the rights, now.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offline2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2622 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 4705 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):
BOG-GRU-DUBAI ?

Would EK route-development think that DXB- somewhere in Northern Brazil - BOG would work?



I'm not on CM's payroll.
User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4014 posts, RR: 13
Reply 6, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 4646 times:

Quoting C010T3 (Thread starter):
I would blame Aerocivil for that,

I would blame both ANAC and Aerocivil. Your detailed description just shows how ignorant people dressed as bureaucrats get in the way of economic activity. Their actions and decisions make airlines focus on competitors instead of customers.



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User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3703 posts, RR: 19
Reply 7, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 4615 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 6):
I would blame both ANAC and Aerocivil

Well, how is the ANAC to blame for Aerocivil's erratic frequency allocation practices?


User currently offlinescorp82 From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 78 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 4566 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):
IF Emirates were to fly to a country with coast line on teh Caribean, Mexico would be first on that list.

One would think that Mexico would be the one of the first logical points of entry into Latin America for EK, and although I am certain Mexico is indeed in EK's cards, it looks like other countries may see EK flights before Mexico. I know Argentina has been rumored for awhile now. But then we have to wait and see how this all materializes.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 4):
It's not said will be GRU. Could be Northeast, could be GIG, could be BSB.
They don't need to run the route, but they have the rights, now.

BSB flights by EK? Completely outlandish, in my opinion.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 4):
Would EK route-development think that DXB- somewhere in Northern Brazil - BOG would work?

I don't even think that EK is really truly considering DXB-Brazil-BOG. From what I know, the bilateral agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Colombia, is that flights are between BOG and DXB and return with possible stops in CCS and some points in Europe (most likely MAD). However someone else can correct me and state what the bilateral truly states.

Though I don't have the immediate source now, I did read an article stating that EK is considering CCS and BOG as possible destinations. Whether the flights may be routed DXB-CCS-BOG and return or DXB-MAD/BCN-CCS or DXB-MAD/BCN-BOG remains to be seen.

Apparently EK is also considering setting up a hub like operation in GRU for flights within South America. Possible routes include DXB-GRU-SCL and DXB-GRU-LIM. The article however did not mention how flights to GIG would work or if EZE might be operated DXB-GRU-EZE or DXB-GIG-EZE.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11438 posts, RR: 58
Reply 9, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 4531 times:
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Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 5):
Would EK route-development think that DXB- somewhere in Northern Brazil - BOG would work?

No... the only potential market would be BOG-GIG-DXB for the reason there's no BOG-GIG service and the oil industry from Rio is looking to invest heavily in Colombia. OGX is the last one with more than US$ 1 billion to be invested in Colombia in the near future, but we can put on the same boat MMX (Coal), Vale, Petrobras, BNDES, Odebrecht and the entire oil industry.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 6):
I would blame both ANAC and Aerocivil. Your detailed description just shows how ignorant people dressed as bureaucrats get in the way of economic activity. Their actions and decisions make airlines focus on competitors instead of customers.

We shall blame both, but i blame ANAC for not having a defined development project behind frequencies allocation.

Quoting scorp82 (Reply 8):
BSB flights by EK? Completely outlandish, in my opinion.

I just throw the potential destination, of course it's not a primary or secondary focus, for now. There's EZE, GIG, BOG, CCS, LIM and SCL ahead of it

Quoting scorp82 (Reply 8):
Apparently EK is also considering setting up a hub like operation in GRU for flights within South America. Possible routes include DXB-GRU-SCL and DXB-GRU-LIM. The article however did not mention how flights to GIG would work or if EZE might be operated DXB-GRU-EZE or DXB-GIG-EZE.

GIG and EZE works alone.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8815 posts, RR: 5
Reply 10, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 4519 times:
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Quoting scorp82 (Reply 8):
Possible routes include DXB-GRU-SCL and DXB-GRU-LIM. The article however did not mention how flights to GIG would work or if EZE might be operated DXB-GRU-EZE or DXB-GIG-EZE.

Interesting to note that EK recently set up Chilean and Peruvian websites.


User currently offlinevin2basketball From United States of America, joined Dec 2009, 315 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 4507 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):
BOG-GRU-DUBAI ? Its very understandable for European airlines and Qatar Airways to fry from their hubs to Sao Paulo and on to Buenos Aires. That is 3 hours flying time, BOG to GRU is 6 hours. No one has ever done that. IF an airline from teh Muslim world did fly to BOG( very low odds) it would stay north of the equator and fly via Europe.

No chance in he**

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 5):
Would EK route-development think that DXB- somewhere in Northern Brazil - BOG would work?

no, maybe via GIG

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 9):
No... the only potential market would be BOG-GIG-DXB for the reason there's no BOG-GIG service and the oil industry from Rio is looking to invest heavily in Colombia. OGX is the last one with more than US$ 1 billion to be invested in Colombia in the near future, but we can put on the same boat MMX (Coal), Vale, Petrobras, BNDES, Odebrecht and the entire oil industry.

How bout to CCS


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3703 posts, RR: 19
Reply 12, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 4498 times:

That detail about DXB is so irrelevant that I really don't know why it has become the main subject of the thread.

User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11438 posts, RR: 58
Reply 13, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 4464 times:
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Quoting C010T3 (Reply 12):
That detail about DXB is so irrelevant that I really don't know why it has become the main subject of the thread.

I do not agree is irrelevant otherwise they would not include on the billateral. The routing do not make sense, but even with that, they did ! And considering that we probably will see BOG-GRU 5x/6x daily ( 2 AV, 1 RG, 1 JJ , 1 AeroRepublica & Aires).

Quoting vin2basketball (Reply 11):
How bout to CCS

Both would work, the problem is the lack of a Rio based airline that focus on Rio needs. Rio is today with no doubt a top 5 oil destination in the world, among the top 3 in Deep Waters Drilling (in fact Petrobras is # 1 on this matter). What i can add is that more than 150,000 people works with oil in Rio. BOG is getting the business from CCS as oil companies want safety and respect to their agreements.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3703 posts, RR: 19
Reply 14, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 4423 times:

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 13):
I do not agree is irrelevant otherwise they would not include on the billateral.

So, let's discuss Lagos. It's also there... I really think that MDE-THE-LOS is a dream route.


User currently offlineSumma767 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 2561 posts, RR: 6
Reply 15, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 4426 times:

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 7):


Well, how is the ANAC to blame for Aerocivil's erratic frequency allocation practices?


You seem to ignore the fact that months ago it was Aerocivil who requested to bring forward the effective dates for the new frequencies, so ANAC has only now decided to accept that.

Perhaps Aerocivil is too salomonic at the time of distributing frequencies, but It does by and large with the blessing of Colombian airlines who don't necessary want daily frequencies (AV to IAD and LAX is less than day even though it can operate more freqs). But at least Aerocivil did invoke the option of date change since last year!


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11438 posts, RR: 58
Reply 16, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 4293 times:
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Quoting Summa767 (Reply 15):
You seem to ignore the fact that months ago it was Aerocivil who requested to bring forward the effective dates for the new frequencies, so ANAC has only now decided to accept that.

They come back with the discussion when JJ applied for BOG. The first come first serve may be it's not the best procedure.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3703 posts, RR: 19
Reply 17, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 3822 times:

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 15):
You seem to ignore the fact that months ago it was Aerocivil who requested to bring forward the effective dates for the new frequencies, so ANAC has only now decided to accept that.

It was only a recommendation by the GEPA. Do you know by a fact that it was further pursued? ANAC's policy towards other South American countries is to establish open skies with the exception of fifth freedom rights. That's why there would be no reason for a denial last year.

Brazil already has agreements with unlimited frequencies with Peru, Uruguay, Chile and Surinam.

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 15):
Perhaps Aerocivil is too salomonic at the time of distributing frequencies, but It does by and large with the blessing of Colombian airlines who don't necessary want daily frequencies

Well, AeroRepública and Aires did want daily frequencies and that was key in order to compete. I can only think that's the reason for them not having started services yet.


User currently offlinejigarciar From Colombia, joined May 2005, 88 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 3221 times:

Quoting scorp82 (Reply 8):
I don't even think that EK is really truly considering DXB-Brazil-BOG. From what I know, the bilateral agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Colombia, is that flights are between BOG and DXB and return with possible stops in CCS and some points in Europe (most likely MAD). However someone else can correct me and state what the bilateral truly states



The Bilateral Agreement in force between Colombia and United Arab Emirates, revised in 2009, allows 21 frequencies a week for passengers in 2010 and 28 frequencies in 2011. For cargo flights, 7 frequencies are allowed for 2010, 14 for 2011 and 28 for 2012.

As for passengers, Colombian carriers have 5th freedom rights between two intermediate points in America (except in the United States) and two points in Europe, except for LIS, FCO, ZRH and Berlin.

UAE carriers will be granted for 5th freedom rights within these intermediate points: PTY, Africa, FCO and CCS.

For CCS, for both parties, 4 frequencies a week will be allowed for 2010, 10 for 2011 and 14 for 2012.

As for points beyond destination, Colombian carriers are granted for 5th freedom rights between 2 points en Europe and 2 points in Asia. UAE carriers are bilaterally allowed to fly to CCS, PTY, YUL and YYZ.

For cargo flights, Colombian carriers have 5th freedom rights between two intermediate points in America (except in the United States) and two points in Europe, except for LIS, FCO, ZRH and Berlin.

UAE carriers will be granted 5th freedom rights between these intermediate points: AMS, EZE, Africa, Germany and Belgium.

Both parties are allowed to use Sao Paulo as an intermediate point (with 5th freedom rights), limited by 6 frequencies a week for 2010 and 8 frequencies a week for 2011.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8370 posts, RR: 7
Reply 19, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 3170 times:
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Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 4):
It's not said will be GRU. Could be Northeast, could be GIG, could be BSB.
They don't need to run the route, but they have the rights, now.

Let not talk about the has little chance of happening but what is economically feasable.
RIO is very close to SAO Paulo in teh context of Colombia. Brasilia is still a lot closer to the two main cities of RIO and Sao Paulo being in teh "middle" of Brazil. Just because they moved the Capitol from RIO the politicians still want an easy trip home to RIO and Sao Paulo.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 2):
Besides the 2 new players, what called my attention was the fact that Brazil and Colombia allowed 5th freedom rights for a potential BOG-Brazil-DXB !
Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 5):
Would EK route-development think that DXB- somewhere in Northern Brazil - BOG would work?

The main cities in northern Brazil are Recife and Salvador, which is these if any has a chance of viable service to DUBai with a 777LR, teh only plane which could fly such a route.


User currently offlineRCS763AV From Colombia, joined Jun 2004, 4395 posts, RR: 12
Reply 20, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2814 times:

I dont agree that there will be a bloodbath. It was a very limited market, and now competition will start arriving. Four daily flights between two countries with a combined population of 230 million people is not that much. And i really don't see P5 launching the route in the near future.

All in all, good news.



Les escribo desde el frío de mi verde altiplano.
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3703 posts, RR: 19
Reply 21, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 2770 times:

Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 20):
It was a very limited market, and now competition will start arriving. Four daily flights between two countries with a combined population of 230 million people is not that much.

I agree, but I see the potential bloodbath, because the increase in capacity will potentially take place in a very short period of time.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11438 posts, RR: 58
Reply 22, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 2699 times:
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Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 20):
I dont agree that there will be a bloodbath. It was a very limited market, and now competition will start arriving. Four daily flights between two countries with a combined population of 230 million people is not that much. And i really don't see P5 launching the route in the near future.

It's big and limited at the same time. Colombians do not fly to Brazil on leisure trips as they would need another connection in the end, so the route is very limited to business and a few leisure and VFR components. At the same time, business is not so strong as Colombia and Brazil are not so huge trade partners.It's improving, but still need more.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineRCS763AV From Colombia, joined Jun 2004, 4395 posts, RR: 12
Reply 23, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2587 times:

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 22):
At the same time, business is not so strong as Colombia and Brazil are not so huge trade partners.It's improving, but still need more.

I would not agree on that. Business between the two countries has quadrupled in the last five years, and is growing at amazing rates with huge brazilian investments being made in th colombian economy, and a lot of colombian goods entering the brazilian market. It's not small anymore and the improvemetns have been gigantic.

As I see it, AV will launch a second daily flight with an A319 and TAM will start flying a daily A320. P5 won't have enough equipment to launch th route (two 73Gs by year's end) as they will probably launch MIA first and need extra capacity to PTY. AIRES will launch its 4x weekly flight and drop the fares, causing an expansion in demand and ultimately not hurting yields as much as they will have limited capacity. I wouldn't call it a bloodbath, I would call it untapping the market.



Les escribo desde el frío de mi verde altiplano.
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11438 posts, RR: 58
Reply 24, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 2567 times:
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Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 23):
I would not agree on that. Business between the two countries has quadrupled in the last five years, and is growing at amazing rates with huge brazilian investments being made in th colombian economy, and a lot of colombian goods entering the brazilian market. It's not small anymore and the improvemetns have been gigantic.

My point is that, It grow as well as it could even grow more. New ties are becoming true like mining and oil, but for sure all the Colombia x Brazil market is in need right now is a little more diversification on industries as well as in destinations. Places like Cali, Medelin and Cartagena can attract more Brazilians as well as in our side, Recife, Fortaleza and Salvador among others. I could see a 10x daily market between both countries, but we need to see VFR and Leisure increasing more.

Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 23):
AIRES will launch its 4x weekly flight and drop the fares, causing an expansion in demand and ultimately not hurting yields as much as they will have limited capacity. I wouldn't call it a bloodbath, I would call it untapping the market

There's not a lot on leisure and VFR to sustain a huge increase, RCS763AV. I'm sceptical about how much they increase could be. This market needs a new destination.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
25 Scorp82 : As much as it is great to see 4C expanding, I have my doubts of their survival in the long run. I do believe there is room in the BOG-GRU market for
26 SJOtoLIR : Speaking about AeroRepublica heading to Brazil, the lack of proper equipments might be a disadvantage for the opening of flights linking theses count
27 Post contains links RCS763AV : The market needs to consolidate it's largest segment, which is GRU-BOG. Traffic numbers to other destinations are small, and only connections through
28 SJOtoLIR : Lima sustains one daily flight on TA LIM-GIG -starting on July 12th- and LP would also initiate operations in such route later. With that being said,
29 Post contains links LipeGIG : I believe there's enough to support a daily GIG-BOG flight. The biggest Brazilian investors in Colombia are not from Sao Paulo, RCS763AV/SJOtoLIR. Th
30 SJOtoLIR : Thank you for the comprehensive explanation posted above ! . Neither Quito nor Guayaquil are sustaining non-stop flights to Sao Paulo and Buenos Aire
31 LipeGIG : Because there are strong economical ties that neither Sao Paulo or Buenos Aires might have. Oil & Gas among the top one.
32 incitatus : The table I have is for 2008. Foreign trade between Brazil and Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay is of similar order of magnitude, totali
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