enilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 6137 posts, RR: 13 Posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 7795 times:
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now.
How to read:
ABE-MDT 3>2 APR means a reduction in one roundtrip from 3 to 2 for April only
ABE-MDT 3.8>2.7 APR-JUN This is the raw format of the data which sometimes I'm too lazy to retype. It means that over a month they were averaging a little less than 4 trips per day and now it's a little less than 3 per day. So, basically they cancelled 8 flights per week or so. Airlines are doing A LOT of non-daily ops now, so these fractions are pervasive.
ABE-MDT 4>6 MAY- means an increase from 4 to 6 roundtrips starting in May and continuing
ABE-MDT 4>6 MAY-JUN, 5>6 JUL means the change is only for the stated period May to June and then a different change for July in the same route
I'm getting a little lazier, so I'm gonna use the fractional display a little more. So, for example, if a flight operates 0.5 that means it operates approximately every other day for a month. So, probably 3/week or 4/week.
This is Branson Air Express operated by Expressjet. They are now in OAG. Does that mean they are no longer a scheduled charter?
Last week I said I would post an example of a close-in cancel down. These were filed this week for September 1 for UA and US. They are 60 days out (less by the time they run through the reaccom process) and hack a massive number of mid-week flights. I was arguing last week that I think the DOT should put a stop to this because 100s of thousands of passengers are booking tickets and airlines are purposefully cancelling them just to keep as many bookings as possible while operating as few flights as possible. I consider it bait and switch. These changes represent the cancellation of over 2,850 flights in September just for two airlines. If 15 passengers on average are booked on each flight which is conservative, that's 43,000 passengers impacted by the airlines undertaking economic cancellations in just one month by just two airlines.
ERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6626 posts, RR: 19 Reply 12, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 7185 times:
Quoting KcrwFlyer (Reply 6): And even if there is demand for it, does it make economic sense for AA to want to fly those particular pax?
Uhmm. yes. What I'm asking is why they haven't added hub routes after cutting many of the P2P? Just seems logical to me. And it can clearly be seen that they have lost market share and pax by not offering more trips. You can just look at the numbers and tell they have lost pax. But, I guess it must be something I don't understand about the airline industry.
SurfandSnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2588 posts, RR: 31 Reply 13, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 7100 times:
According to the merger website all flights have the F9 code by November 1st, so I wonder why the delay til January 1st? Either way nice to see the merger coming along. Will be weird to see a true LCC serving the likes of ATW!
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
enilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 6137 posts, RR: 13 Reply 14, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7053 times:
Quoting KcrwFlyer (Reply 6): So....we got another flight out of a cancel down? I like it.
There are some adds. The pruning is ongoing. This is not the first pruning of September. There were probably some flights that were already cut that had to be reinstated because of one reason or another.
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 8): Actually, it is. Removing the code change, we get cuts on every route, unless I'm missing something. It looks like mostly day of week cuts, but there are whole flights cut on a few routes.
It could just be their cancel down happened at the same time as the load...or it is just some goofy timing thing where part of the month they operate YX and part F9. I wouldn't be too concerned about it. It's 7 months in advance and is nearly meaningless. It's only interesting in that it means the demise of the YX code.
I just report the news. I tend to think whatever news is the most recent is the most accurate which would mean this is correct, but it could be deleted next week for all I know.
Quoting mariner (Reply 11): The fall/winter schedule is coming out in a week or so - I guess we'll know then.
Those are a little odd, but again it's so far in advance I wouldn't worry about it much. BTW, I checked and they still show DH4 in ASE this Winter. So the schedules they have filed out there are cr@p anyway.
enilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 6137 posts, RR: 13 Reply 16, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 6940 times:
Quoting mariner (Reply 15): LOL. Some of us are hanging out for the fall/winter schedule hoping for a few "surprises" - as happened with the summer schedule.
This week's schedule change I'm saying was a non-event except that it kills the YX code which is a big deal. What is coming I don't know, but they have how many A318s and Q400s to remove from service? There must be 5 or 6 planes coming out, right? That's gonna put a damper on exiciting new stuff.
knope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2555 posts, RR: 31 Reply 19, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 6845 times:
Quoting enilria (Reply 14): It could just be their cancel down happened at the same time as the load...or it is just some goofy timing thing where part of the month they operate YX and part F9. I wouldn't be too concerned about it. It's 7 months in advance and is nearly meaningless.
Yup...I think that's right on the money. There are definitely oddities and such in the schedule posted as F9 starting in January:
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 8): MKE-LGA 4.6>3.6 (1.5 slots or so gone here too)
MKE-LGA is 3.6 today (4x on weekdays and less on weekends) because the slots for the 5th flight went to adding another DEN-LGA flight back in April. The YX schedule show them restoring the 5th MKE-LGA flight on 10/25/10. The January F9 schedule just shows it back to 4x.
But...the four flights MKE-LGA don't "come out right" with the four return flights LGA-MKE. So unless they are planning to have an E170 sitting at LaGuardia each day from 1:30pm until 7:59pm, this is not the schedule they will ultimately fly.
It remains to be seen if it will go back to 5x in late October or not, much less if it will go back to 4x in January.
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 8): MKE-DCA 3.6>2.8 (where are the 1.5 slots going?)
This is another odditity which shows us that these schedules are definitely nowhere near the "final" ones. MKE-DCA remains at 4x/day in the new schedule, but DCA-MKE drops to 3x/day. Unless they are stockpiling aircraft in DCA, that doesn't work! (There are no corresponding lopsided schedules to Kansas City, Denver or Omaha to offset this. It's just a lopsided schedule which will obviously be resolved one way or another.)
Finally, starting with the fall schedule and carrying on into the January F9 schedule, nearly everything at MKE is back to the exactly aircraft type they flew in early April - essentially all the routes which have since changed to A319, E190 or ERJ show as back to the E170. It's possible, but to me it seems much more likely that this information is primarily a placeholder.
Quoting mariner (Reply 11): The fall/winter schedule is coming out in a week or so - I guess we'll know then.
I have a feeling it will come out while I'm on vacation and offline...rats...
enilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 6137 posts, RR: 13 Reply 23, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 5410 times:
Quoting mariner (Reply 18): Then you know more than I - I don't know that they are removing A318's from service. That was a strategy by previous management and I believe (?) it was changed after the acquisition.
Maybe you know more than I. Have they publicly reversed the A318 decision? With the E190s there are only a few long East Coast missions that the A318 can serve uniquely.
mariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 22721 posts, RR: 88 Reply 24, posted (2 years 10 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 5322 times:
Quoting enilria (Reply 23): Maybe you know more than I. Have they publicly reversed the A318 decision? With the E190s there are only a few long East Coast missions that the A318 can serve uniquely.
Publicly? I doubt it.
I don't remember that it was ever "publicly" announced that they intended to swap all the A318 fleet. It was always based on the individual deals they could get and they turned down a couple of deals because they weren't that good.
25 enilria: The A318 was so reviled I'm shocked the new management has changed the path. I know that Bombardier has agreed to remarket Frontier Airbus aircraft,
26 KcrwFlyer: List all the P2P routes they cut and ill try to explain it to you. Of course numbers will be down if you cut flights. Just because they weren't doing
27 RJNUT: I do discourage booking out long term unless its is a seasonal winter/summer destination that requires advance booking just to get a seat... but with
28 mariner: Never reviled by me, I've always loved the wee thing. The A318/A320 swaps were devised by SM in the middle of the bk when they had no access to the c
29 Cubsrule: I think your example brings up another good point: AA doesn't have a good hub through which to move people on the routes it dropped. All of them exce
30 mtnwest1979: When exactly did RU fly into ATW? I looked at the PE timetable Jun-Sep '86, they show ORD-ATW route, but nothing in schedules, and by the time CO too
31 mariner: It's possible we're both right. This scratches an itch of mine so I did a little checking. It was confirmed for me that there are no present plans to
32 enilria: I hear you, but you really should be able to buy a ticket 60 days in advance without fear of getting shafted. Where you really get screwed is with re
33 enilria: Frontier Airlines, a wholly owned subsidiary of Republic Airways Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:RJET - News), today announced it will launch nonstop service
34 mariner: I've been through this debate endlessly on a.net and nothing diminishes my affection for the aircraft. LOL. I'm not big on these things, but I presum
35 enilria: I love DC-3s, but they are not economical either. The plane is fine except for the bridge issue, CG problems, some unique problems that stem from hav
36 point2point: Yes, they could be worthless, but F9 at this point has a handful of them, are obligated to keep paying on them for a certain period of time (unless,
37 enilria: Wasn't that announced a few hours later? Effective in September 2010, the Company will remove four 120-seat Airbus 318s and one 76-seat Embraer 170 a
38 mariner: Yes. Is RAP seasonal? I thought it was - unsurprisingly - being cut. mariner[Edited 2010-07-01 21:12:53]
39 KELPkid: *cough* DEN-ELP *cough* Okay, I've spoken my peace, and F9 ended up dropping ELP altogether a few months back (I guess UA out RJ'ed them). Seriously,
40 enilria: I would cease trusting whoever your source was. You could be right. They said it was suspended, but not "seasonally suspended". In airline parlance "
41 enilria: It's there in the Summer. Go back and look at Winter in T100 history. Winter sucks. It's not a mainline market all year.
42 mariner: Why? "They" were spot on right. These are new A320 coming in - not used. And it is a new contract, not the as yet unresolved contract. I'm not sure w
43 point2point: Even though F9 is reducing by 4 the number of its A318s, I believe that it will still have 5 left in the fleet, and these are the frames that I was r
44 mariner: Yes, 5 x A318 still left in the fleet - if it stays like that. There are a number of "unresolved issues" of which one is the extant Contract #1 for 8