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2010 Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing  
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25056 posts, RR: 46
Posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 15336 times:

In the past I have posted on industry aircraft valuations and market lease rates and was asked to provide and updated snapshot.

Due to the economic slowdown, aircraft values saw significant declines in 2009. With signs of global stability and business return, aircraft valuations have ticked up in early 2010 across the board except in a handful of models that have excess number of available frames in the secondary market, but still off historical highs seen in 2008.

Below are estimated current market value (USD$mil) based on oldest to newest airframes, and the sample monthly lease rates (USD$,000) based oldest to newest airframes.
Information is derived from transactions and valuation through May 2010.

A319 - $13.7M-$31.3M, $140-285,000
A320 - $6.8M-$37.3M, $105-325,000
A321 - $20.4M-$42.2M, $200-375,000
A330-200 - $43.5M-$79.3M, $400-705,000
A340-300 - $26.0M-$72.3M - $330-615,000
A340-600 -$68.0-114.0M - $600-815,000
B737-300 - $2.5M-$8.1M - $65-110,00
B737-700 - $16.0M-$32.5M - $175-290,000
B737-800 - $20.7M-$39.2M - $215-340,000
B747-400 - $20.0M-$73.1M - $380-750,000
B757-200 - $6.0-$20.1M - $115-210,000
B767-300ER – $10.5M-58.0M - $200-450,000
B777-200ER - $49.9M-$115.2M - $580-995,000
B777-300ER - $85.2M-136.2M - $850-1,250,000
MD-11 – $14.6M-$17.4M - $240-260,000
MD-82 - $1.0M-$3.8M - $40-60,000
CRJ200 - $2.0M-$8.0M - $40-90,000
CRJ700 - $11.3M-21.9M - $120-220,000
Q400 - $8.4M-$17.9M - $115-190,000
ERJ145 - $5.5M-10.2M - $50-105,000
EMB170 – $14.6M-$22.7M - $150-225,000
EMB190 - $20.5M-$27.5M - $195-245,000
ATR-72 - $5.4M-$17.5M - $70-150,000


The bargains of the month and models still seeing large depressed values are early 737s, MD-80s and the 50-seat RJs(esp CR2). The 757-200 has also seen a large drop in pricing as more used examples become available, while early A320s also have become bargains as some even head to the scrapper.


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
43 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinemilesrich From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1995 posts, RR: 6
Reply 1, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 15300 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
The bargains of the month and models still seeing large depressed values are early 737s, MD-80s and the 50-seat RJs(esp CR2). The 757-200 has also seen a large drop in pricing as more used examples become available, while early A320s also have become bargains as some even head to the scrapper.

As fuel goes up, and with the industry consolidation, the CR2's will be real dogs on the market. As far as the A-320's, look for more to head to the scrapper, as their service life comes to an end.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30865 posts, RR: 86
Reply 2, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 15269 times:
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Thanks for the reminder that I need to hit the database to pull down the latest numbers.

User currently offlineDiamondFlyer From United States of America, joined Oct 2008, 1533 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 15228 times:

I find the slight difference between the ERJ-145 and CRJ200 to be interesting. Is that primarily due to the difference in age in the fleet, or what causes the ERJ-145 to be higher priced both in value and monthly lease cost? Is the ERJ-145 better on fuel or am I missing something?

-DiamondFlyer


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25056 posts, RR: 46
Reply 4, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 15115 times:

CRJ200 valuations are more pressured then E145s due to the larger number parked on the market(both US & Europe) and likely combined with the fact there are number of outstanding AD's that need to be complied with over time which can run up the cost on individual tails.


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinethegreatRDU From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2310 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 14918 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Q400 - $8.4M-$17.9M - $115-190,000

? Did it rise?



Our Returning Champion
User currently offlineUAEflyer From United Arab Emirates, joined Nov 2006, 1064 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 14833 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
A319 - $13.7M-$31.3M, $140-285,000
A320 - $6.8M-$37.3M, $105-325,000
A321 - $20.4M-$42.2M, $200-375,000
A330-200 - $43.5M-$79.3M, $400-705,000
A340-300 - $26.0M-$72.3M - $330-615,000
A340-600 -$68.0-114.0M - $600-815,000
B737-300 - $2.5M-$8.1M - $65-110,00
B737-700 - $16.0M-$32.5M - $175-290,000
B737-800 - $20.7M-$39.2M - $215-340,000
B747-400 - $20.0M-$73.1M - $380-750,000
B757-200 - $6.0-$20.1M - $115-210,000
B767-300ER – $10.5M-58.0M - $200-450,000
B777-200ER - $49.9M-$115.2M - $580-995,000
B777-300ER - $85.2M-136.2M - $850-1,250,000
MD-11 – $14.6M-$17.4M - $240-260,000
MD-82 - $1.0M-$3.8M - $40-60,000
CRJ200 - $2.0M-$8.0M - $40-90,000
CRJ700 - $11.3M-21.9M - $120-220,000
Q400 - $8.4M-$17.9M - $115-190,000
ERJ145 - $5.5M-10.2M - $50-105,000
EMB170 – $14.6M-$22.7M - $150-225,000
EMB190 - $20.5M-$27.5M - $195-245,000
ATR-72 - $5.4M-$17.5M - $70-150,000

Is this applicable on VIP jets ?


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25056 posts, RR: 46
Reply 7, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 14708 times:

Quoting thegreatRDU (Reply 5):
? Did it rise?

Depends what time frame you compare to. From historic highs, in 2008, todays valuation is slightly lower.

For instance in late 2008 was:
Q400 - $9.6M-$18.8M - $120-190,000

Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 6):
Is this applicable on VIP jets ?

Well if you wanted to purchase a "green" aircraft the price should fall in the valuation range, however you have to outfit it for VIP work separately. Also leasing is not as common in the large VIP aircraft world, so the quoted monthly lease rates are unlikely to be valid.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineDecromin From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2008, 80 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (4 years 1 month 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 14678 times:

I wonder how long till we see the 380 appear on this list ...

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30865 posts, RR: 86
Reply 9, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 14447 times:
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Quoting Decromin (Reply 8):
I wonder how long till we see the 380 appear on this list ...

Average monthly rent for an A380-800 is between USD 1.4 to 2.0 million (Doric Aircraft Finance holds the majority of A388 leases, I believe).

SQ's first birds are worth about $174 million and 2009's deliveries are worth about $189 million.

And lest some folks think that valuation is too low, it should be noted that Doric Aircraft Finance purchased 9V-SKA/B/C for just under $199 million each from Airbus prior to their delivery to SQ.

[Edited 2010-07-02 05:39:15]

User currently offlinebonusonus From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 403 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 14344 times:

Seems like MD-11s are a steal, going for less than the price of an E-190. The issues with that a/c have been discussed many times, but to me it still seems like a great deal for 2nd and 3rd tier airlines, as well as charter companies, cargo startups, etc.

User currently offlinepylon101 From Russia, joined Feb 2008, 1503 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 13939 times:

LAXIntl, thanks for providing this information.

I have a question related to Transaero.
Their charter business scheme is based on let's call it "final utilization".
Which means that their around 30 year old 747-200s (and slightly younger -300s) taken in lease for 5 year will end service upon lease end.
What is your estimation of yearly payments based on a 5 year lease for 747-200 which is 30 years old by now and close to the end of service?
Thanks.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25117 posts, RR: 22
Reply 12, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 13866 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Thanks for the reminder that I need to hit the database to pull down the latest numbers.

What is the best database for that type of information?


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30865 posts, RR: 86
Reply 13, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 13836 times:
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Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 12):
What is the best database for that type of information?

I'm not sure it's the "best", but I find Access Intelligence / Aircraft Value News to be pretty good. I access it through my public library.


User currently offlinestburke From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 96 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 13509 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
MD-82 - $1.0M-$3.8M - $40-60,000

That explains Allegiant

Really I'm surprised that an A346 goes for that much considering its CASM, etc. Still relatively new I suppose.



aaaand it's gone.
User currently offlineflylku From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 804 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 13401 times:

Does anyone know how airlines are allowed to depreciate aircraft? Is it straight line, accelerated of some sort of depletion methodology?


...are we there yet?
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25056 posts, RR: 46
Reply 16, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 13295 times:

Quoting Decromin (Reply 8):
I wonder how long till we see the 380 appear on this list ...

Well I have it amongst many more others, but its valuation is rather narrow and arbitrary due to its small fleet size, and zero current second hand market placements.

But market price for the model is:
A380-800 - $152.0-$182.0M - $1,450,000-1,700,00

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 11):
What is your estimation of yearly payments based on a 5 year lease for 747-200 which is 30 years old by now and close to the end of service?

I don't have current info for the classic passenger 747 but I know 742 freighters are now trading at basically scrap value of about $1-2mil. A heavy check on the model alone cost more than its value at $3-4mil.

Quoting stburke (Reply 14):
That explains Allegiant

Yes the Allegiant specials. They have been buying aircraft up in the $1.5mil range.

Quoting flylku (Reply 15):
Does anyone know how airlines are allowed to depreciate aircraft? Is it straight line, accelerated of some sort of depletion methodology?

Depends on airline to airline and country to country based on acceptable accounting practices.

For US carriers, if you read annual reports or SEC filings, there is often a mention.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineKappel From Suriname, joined Jul 2005, 3533 posts, RR: 17
Reply 17, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 13266 times:

Quoting bonusonus (Reply 10):
Seems like MD-11s are a steal, going for less than the price of an E-190. The issues with that a/c have been discussed many times, but to me it still seems like a great deal for 2nd and 3rd tier airlines,

There's a reason why KL still operate the MD11. Not only are they not that old, the costs of ownership are low.



L1011,733,734,73G,738,743,744,752,763,772,77W,DC855,DC863,DC930,DC950,MD11,MD88,306,319,320,321,343,346,ARJ85,CR7,E195
User currently offlineDiamondFlyer From United States of America, joined Oct 2008, 1533 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 12969 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 4):
CRJ200 valuations are more pressured then E145s due to the larger number parked on the market(both US & Europe) and likely combined with the fact there are number of outstanding AD's that need to be complied with over time which can run up the cost on individual tails.

Ahh, I suppose that makes sense too. I've seen a far more number of ex-airline CRJ200's be converted into business shuttles/jets. I guess I figured that had eaten a little bit of the large inventory that was sitting around doing nothing.

-DiamondFlyer


User currently offlinebjorn14 From Norway, joined Feb 2010, 3411 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 12907 times:

Quoting flylku (Reply 15):
Does anyone know how airlines are allowed to depreciate aircraft? Is it straight line, accelerated of some sort of depletion methodology?

Back in the 80's we used 7 years to depreciate but these were only J31s. GAAP rules may have changed.



"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 20, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 12725 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
B757-200 - $6.0-$20.1M - $115-210,000
Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
CRJ700 - $11.3M-21.9M - $120-220,000
Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
EMB170 – $14.6M-$22.7M - $150-225,000
EMB190 - $20.5M-$27.5M - $195-245,000

Wow,
That really explains where we are in the 752 life...

Quoting milesrich (Reply 1):
the CR2's will be real dogs on the market.

Understatement.

When the RJ contracts come up for renewal.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
SQ's first birds are worth about $174 million and 2009's deliveries are worth about $189 million.

Interesting... But we really won't know the resale value of the A388 until 'enough' are on the market for a liquid trade. that will take practically for the entire backlog to be in airline hands. To say the least, I hope to quite a few more delivered beyond that number.  

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 21, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 12605 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 16):
I don't have current info for the classic passenger 747 but I know 742 freighters are now trading at basically scrap value of about $1-2mil. A heavy check on the model alone cost more than its value at $3-4mil.

1st, thank you for the information.

Question, are 744's trading hands in any numbers today?

Also, I would suspect a 744 has a far higher scrap value than a 742, do you know what that value is?

I would also be interested in knowing what a D-check (as you called it, a 'heavy check') is running for the types you listed. For the 77W, I would guess a 'heavy C' estimate with multiple 'heavy C's' per D-check interval.

Do you also happen to have A332 lease rates by engine type? I suspect the early build lease rates are being pulled down by the GE engines. I would suspect the RR engines have the highest resale/lease rate value, followed by the Pratts and then in 3rd GE. But I would love to know the dollar premium paid for each engine.

To the 'general group':
I find it interesting that an A343 of any age leases for less than all but the oldest A332's. I've already explained why I think the oldest A332's have a discounted lease rate (The GE's 59F 'hot/high' limit for 72k of thrust...)


Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25056 posts, RR: 46
Reply 22, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 12572 times:

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 18):
I guess I figured that had eaten a little bit of the large inventory that was sitting around doing nothing.

A bit further to my previous comments, I was able to determine that at the end of April 2010, there were 106 parked and marketed CRJ-200s versus only 38 EMB-145s.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 21):
Question, are 744's trading hands in any numbers today?

Yes a few. Kalitta recently made a deal on some ex JAL birds, plus a couple finance lease-back transactions. Also new leases written for folks like Evergreen Cargo.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 21):
Also, I would suspect a 744 has a far higher scrap value than a 742, do you know what that value is?

I'm not sure what you mean. There really have not been scrap outs of the 744 as the model still holds a value in the $20mil range at worst which is higher then parting of components would ever fetch.
Unless certain airframes have issues I dont believe we will see scrapping until the models value drops much further.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 21):
I would also be interested in knowing what a D-check (as you called it, a 'heavy check') is running for the types you listed. For the 77W, I would guess a 'heavy C' estimate with multiple 'heavy C's' per D-check interval.

777s don't have traditional letter checks and were certified under the MSG-3 maintenance concepts. In simplistic terms instead of everything being changed out in mass at predesignated intervals, now all items from the smallest components up have their individual limits and are dyanmically changed out on an ongoing basis.
Some other models with similar maintenance practices at many carriers included new A320s while some older models can overtime be bridged into MSG-3 and away from old school MSG-1 and 2 letter checks.

So its not easy to assign a check cost value, as under MSG-3 the cost are continuous and will have peak and valleys for each aircraft as their hours/cycle advance in numbers. It would not be clear or fair apples vs apples comparison.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 21):
Do you also happen to have A332 lease rates by engine type? I suspect the early build lease rates are being pulled down by the GE engines. I would suspect the RR engines have the highest resale/lease rate value, followed by the Pratts and then in 3rd GE. But I would love to know the dollar premium paid for each engine.

Yes and no. When you start drilling down too much, the peculiarities of pricing of individual tails comes into play. In general I have not seen a stark difference within the A330-200 unlike the A330-300s which have very clear valuation difference between early models and later built models due to major performance(weight increase) improvements.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 21):
I find it interesting that an A343 of any age leases for less than all but the oldest A332's.

Yes well when Airbus itself started telling prospective customers the A330-200 was better then a A340-300 in economic terms for most missions they pretty much helped close out its future sales and the model will continue to see value erosion which could become quite steep as 787s enter the field and A340 fleets are turned over.

[Edited 2010-07-02 22:36:47]


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinebjorn14 From Norway, joined Feb 2010, 3411 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 6 days ago) and read 12437 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):

A319 - $13.7M-$31.3M, $140-285,000

Any values for the -LR version?

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
ERJ145 - $5.5M-10.2M - $50-105,000

I know only 108 of the 135s have been produced with at least 10 parked but any value for those?

Thanks.



"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25056 posts, RR: 46
Reply 24, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 12263 times:

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 23):
Any values for the -LR version?

With a tiny fleet size, its would be based on individual tails.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 23):
I know only 108 of the 135s have been produced with at least 10 parked but any value for those?

E135 is $4.4M-6.3M - $45,000-60,000.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
25 airbuske : Interesting to note that despite all the a.net rambling on how airlines seemingly "hate" their A340NGs, they seem to be holding their market value qu
26 LAXintl : In all fairness its important to note however there have been very few transactions involving the type. Once someone decides to roll their fleet over
27 Stitch : Exactly, LAXintl. 747-400 and 767-300ER residuals and lease rates rose sharply in the mid-2000's as airlines looked for "emergency capacity" to meet d
28 Aesma : When you lease an aircraft, who pays the maintenance, how does it work ?
29 LAXintl : Depends on what type of lease are we talking about. Can be structured in many ways. But in general for a few year lease, you can either build fixed m
30 thegreatRDU : You got anything else exotic like the saab 340 etc...
31 LAXintl : Well with over 100 examples stored, the Saab-340 is not worth much more then scrap value really. So for a few hundred thousand you can be the proud o
32 lightsaber : First, thank you for taking the time for your replies. Good to hear the 744 resale is still holding up. I had feared with the number that were parked
33 B-HOP : What about Fokker 100, any information on that one? Kev
34 LAXintl : F-100 can be had for a grand bargain for $2.5-$4.6mil or leased $60,000-90,000 monthly.
35 Post contains links Robffm2 : AF 744 F-GITA To Kemble (by CodyKDiamond Jul 21 2010 in Civil Aviation)
36 LAXintl : Yes F-GITA which was the bird that ended up in the Tahiti lagoon, and had a rebuilt lower section and E&E bay is a good example of specific airfra
37 Post contains images Cmtehori : I wonder how much the old birds would cost, like the 732, cargo DC-8's, DC-10's and even the 727
38 JayinKitsap : Are the high end values of current models a pretty good representation of the actual purchase price by airlines (compared to the Sky High List Prices)
39 SEPilot : But note that the highest lease price is still lower than the lowest lease price for the 77W. Remember it is still a new plane and very capable, and
40 LAXintl : You could probably get anyone of them at basic scrap value. To cost for parking might exceed the cost on the airframe! Not neccesarily. Actual purcha
41 SEPilot : And don't forget a large part is going to be the actual condition of the individual aircraft involved. Just like cars, some are well taken care of an
42 Post contains links andthensome : Sorry for the intrusion guys but I have to make a comment about the 340s. Indeed a lot of them are stored but I think it's a bit harsh to say that the
43 SEPilot : I was very surprised to see lease rates and prices for the 737-100. I didn't think there were any still flying.
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