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Boeing: Possible Delivery Slip To 2011 Q1 For 787  
User currently offlinetugger From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 5601 posts, RR: 8
Posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 14694 times:

So what many here have been saying could happen... could happen. No real surprise, just an announcement to make the markets aware.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ery-may-be-delayed-until-2011.html

Quote:
July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co. said the initial delivery of the 787 Dreamliner may be delayed until the first weeks of 2011 instead of coming later this year under the planemaker’s latest plan.

Boeing is still working to get the twin-engine jet to the first customer, Japan’s All Nippon Airways Co., by the end of 2010, Scott Fancher, the 787 program chief, said today on a conference call with reporters.

“We’re seeing enough pressure that we just want to communicate a cautionary note,” Fancher said of the possible timetable for an early-2011 delivery.

Tugg


I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
50 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineikramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21529 posts, RR: 59
Reply 1, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 14495 times:

Sounds like they have no margin left.

My guess is that the delay in the GE birds is the cause, as they may not be able to complete all the tests they were meant to run for the whole program (not just the GE certification), in the original time.

With 1 test aircraft being 1 month late and another almost 3, that's a big hit. Combine with the added delays of the late Type Authority and the one week slow down from the tail problems, and margin is goneski...



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineMYT332 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2003, 9112 posts, RR: 70
Reply 2, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 14384 times:

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 1):
and margin is goneski...

Oh well hey, at least we're used to this kind of thing now. Not really news, is it? Just a fact of life.



One Life, Live it.
User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5758 posts, RR: 47
Reply 3, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 14275 times:

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 1):
My guess is that the delay in the GE birds is the cause, as they may not be able to complete all the tests they were meant to run for the whole program (not just the GE certification), in the original time.

Nope the testing of the GEnx on the 787 is not going to delay the delivery of RR powered airplanes to ANA. That's not the pacing item. It seems that instrumentation changeout and reconfiguration is the culprit here.



That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4737 posts, RR: 39
Reply 4, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 14233 times:
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Quoting MYT332 (Reply 2):
Not really news, is it? Just a fact of life.


Sadly enough we have gotten used to it. But then again, they are 2 years late now, so another couple of months will not hurt that much, although it probably will cost Boeing more compensation money. More interesting is the question of they get the production up and running according to the revised plans. If the delays would culminate, then it will cost a lot more money.


User currently offlineWarpSpeed From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 591 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 14213 times:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...news/2012364288_apusboeing787.html

From the article: "Fancher says the need to change test instrumentation on the flight test planes and additional inspections "stacked up" and reduced the time margin in the testing schedule."


I've come to accept unexpected design and production challenges as causes for schedule delays, but it strikes me as inexcusable to not adequately plan for instrumentation change-outs and reconfigurations. Before people jump all over me, I can totally understand that changing out instrumentation is no easy task and SNAFUS can loom at any moment, but Boeing has tested planes many times before and has had years to plan for the 787 test program. If it is such a complex task then build in more time for contingencies. If it is labor intensive then don't lay-off flight test personnel as Boeing did last year. IMHO, this is just poor test program management.



DaHjaj jaj QaQ Daghajjaj !!!!
User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15744 posts, RR: 27
Reply 6, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 14197 times:

I can't say I'm surprised, especially with the latest tail issue. But I would hope that Boeing has learned their lesson and are trying to stay ahead of this delay rather than denying it until they have no choice?

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 4):
so another couple of months will not hurt that much,

A couple of months? It may not be nearly that much. I was under the impression that we were talking the tail end of this year (much like the first flight by the end of the year last year), so slipping from Q4 2010 to Q1 2011 in this case could be a few weeks.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4737 posts, RR: 39
Reply 7, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 14134 times:
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Quoting BMI727 (Reply 6):
so slipping from Q4 2010 to Q1 2011 in this case could be a few weeks.

It could be six months at maximum, but if the delivery was planned for december, and if that delivery would now slip to January, it would indeed be a couple of weeks only.

Let's wait and see when the first delivery will take place. I hope it is as soon as possible.  .


User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15744 posts, RR: 27
Reply 8, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 13998 times:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 7):
It could be six months at maximum, but if the delivery was planned for december, and if that delivery would now slip to January, it would indeed be a couple of weeks only.

True, but I thought that deliveries would be sometime in December as it is. Furthermore, I would think that since we know that the tail issue isn't going to be a huge delay (and may just eat up their margin) that any problem significant enough to cause a potential delay of a couple months and warrant a press release like this probably would be unable to fly under the radar this long.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1884 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 13937 times:

Well, well, well...
I wonder where are all these people who swore that Boeing will be able to complete 787 flight test programme in six months now? Like I said right from the get-go: 10 - 12 months, not any sooner.



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlinekeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 13676 times:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 4):
But then again, they are 2 years late now, so another couple of months will not hurt that much, although it probably will cost Boeing more compensation money.
Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 9):
I wonder where are all these people who swore that Boeing will be able to complete 787 flight test programme in six months now? Like I said right from the get-go: 10 - 12 months, not any sooner.

The aircraft was originally scheduled to enter service in May 2008. So delivery in jan/feb 2011 and EIS 1-2 months later, "nearly 3 years late" is getting more acurate. Nobody is interested anymore in how many delays, how many broken promises. Super loyal launche customer ANA even publicly passed on the previous Boeing planning and made their own a few months ago..

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...very-slip-despite-no-official.html


User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5432 posts, RR: 12
Reply 11, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 13601 times:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 7):
Let's wait and see when the first delivery will take place. I hope it is as soon as possible.

Have YOU said this before? Maybe it was somebody else...  

That's really all there is to say about this topic. Might as well close the thread.

bb


User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5758 posts, RR: 47
Reply 12, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 13596 times:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 9):
Like I said right from the get-go: 10 - 12 months, not any sooner.

Boeing did plan for a 12 month flight test program...Dec. 2009 to Dec. 2010



That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4737 posts, RR: 39
Reply 13, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 13475 times:
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Quoting SANFan (Reply 11):
Have YOU said this before? Maybe it was somebody else


I am sure I have, along with many other aviation enthusiast who want to see it flying operational. I hope all other future programs from every aircraft manufacturer go smooth and without delays. I know that might be wishful thinking, but that is the way I feel about it.  .


User currently offlineBoeEngr From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 321 posts, RR: 35
Reply 14, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 13351 times:

Just an emphasis that this is not an announced delay, it's just note of a schedule challenge.

I don't know if we'll make it or not, but we'll just have to wait and see. We're trying!


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8816 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 13206 times:
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Quoting BoeEngr (Reply 14):
Just an emphasis that this is not an announced delay, it's just note of a schedule challenge.

Thanks for clarifying. Hopefully Boeing does not delay the delivery schedule again. LAN bought 10 B787s, (32 on order), and intends on launching Boeing 787 operated flights in the first quarter of 2011. I can't wait to fly on the Dreamliner!


User currently offlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7206 posts, RR: 8
Reply 16, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 13010 times:

Quoting ikramerica (Reply 1):
My guess is that the delay in the GE birds is the cause, as they may not be able to complete all the tests they were meant to run for the whole program (not just the GE certification), in the original time.
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 3):
Nope the testing of the GEnx on the 787 is not going to delay the delivery of RR powered airplanes to ANA. That's not the pacing item

The question is whether the GEnx birds have other functions to complete the full testing other than just how those engines function, my understanding was that all 6 test a/c were needed to complete all testing within the short window given.
Devils advocate, if it was just the removal of test equipment on the RR birds, that's mostly "grunt" work, have shifts of workers going around the clock 24/7 should take care of it.

I agree with Ikramerica I think the additional delay in getting the GE birds in the air has probably shifted some additional testing to the RR birds, so less a/c are attempting to complete the full testing, and since the margins were already eaten away prior to the horizontal stab issue they have simply run out of days in 2010.


User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1150 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 12740 times:

Quoting MYT332 (Reply 2):
Oh well hey, at least we're used to this kind of thing now. Not really news, is it? Just a fact of life.

Geez ... what a surprise!
  
The fact of life about the B787 program is that whatever rumor there is about any delay proves to be true .... every time.

Soon now some will say its just a couple of months as if this is the last delay.
Of course ... eventually they will be right.

Quoting keesje (Reply 10):
The aircraft was originally scheduled to enter service in May 2008. So delivery in jan/feb 2011 and EIS 1-2 months later, "nearly 3 years late" is getting more acurate

Well noted!


User currently offline328JET From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 12582 times:

Ok, another indication for another delay, but the question really is: How much delay?


According to the article in flightglobal the testfleet has reached only around 1100 hours and 365 flights until now.

Boeing is planning 2400 hours on the 4 RR-aircrafts alone.

That means since last december they reached less than half of the required hours and the year has less than 6 full month remaining...

In my eyes, a slip into 2011 is not only likely, it is unavoidable - without any findings!


So, i think these careful words from Boeing are the beginning of more than just some weeks into 2011.

Maybe a complete redesign for the horizontal stab of the B787-8 as well to increase commonality with the -9 ?


http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...t-delivery-could-slip-to-2011.html


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5465 posts, RR: 30
Reply 19, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 12498 times:

Quoting 328JET (Reply 18):
That means since last december they reached less than half of the required hours and the year has less than 6 full month remaining...

It's not exactly linear, though. There will be more planes flying, (which obviously means proportionally more flight hours), in the last 6 months of the program than there were during the first 6 months.



What the...?
User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1580 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 11885 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 19):
It's not exactly linear, though. There will be more planes flying, (which obviously means proportionally more flight hours), in the last 6 months of the program than there were during the first 6 months.

No, but they will obviously be even further behind with GEnx flying hours.



BV
User currently offlineXT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3409 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 11160 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 19):
It's not exactly linear, though. There will be more planes flying, (which obviously means proportionally more flight hours), in the last 6 months of the program than there were during the first 6 months.

and the testing generates more hours per day. To start out they are doing tests that are accomplished in short flights, which then need the data crunched before they fly again. To end they flight countless hours of verifying fuel burn, systems reliablity, etc which require them to fly 8+ hours in a single go. Which racks up more hours? 1 flight every few days for a couple hours with one plane, or several planes flying 8+ hours with minimal downtime?


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30986 posts, RR: 86
Reply 22, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 11129 times:
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Honestly I don't know how much a multi-week or even multi-month delay is going to affect NH, since they are limited to where they can fly it for a year, anyway, while they earn their Japanese certifications. I imagine their first planes will mostly just be tooling around the Home Islands.

User currently offlinetdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 79
Reply 23, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 10863 times:

Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 5):
I've come to accept unexpected design and production challenges as causes for schedule delays, but it strikes me as inexcusable to not adequately plan for instrumentation change-outs and reconfigurations.

How do you plan for instrumentation changes you don't know about in advance?

Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 5):
If it is such a complex task then build in more time for contingencies.

They did. Then they used it up. Contingency planning is a very tricky business...ask for too much, you get denied and your customers freak out. Short it by even a little bit and you get this situation (almost, but not quite, making it)...and your customers freak out.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 9):
I wonder where are all these people who swore that Boeing will be able to complete 787 flight test programme in six months now?

Other than the sales/marketing types 2 years ago, who *ever* said that would happen?

Quoting par13del (Reply 16):
Devils advocate, if it was just the removal of test equipment on the RR birds, that's mostly "grunt" work, have shifts of workers going around the clock 24/7 should take care of it.

They do have shifts of workers going 24/7. They have for years. Two women can't make a baby in 4.5 months.

Quoting 328JET (Reply 18):
Maybe a complete redesign for the horizontal stab of the B787-8 as well to increase commonality with the -9 ?

Why would they do that, especially at this point? The 787-8 stab is obviously working (it passed all structural tests, all repairs on the FT aircraft are complete according to Boeing, and the FT planes are back in the air).

Tom.


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1580 posts, RR: 3
Reply 24, posted (4 years 2 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 10753 times:

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 23):
Two women can't make a baby in 4.5 months.

Pretty sure that two women couldnt make a baby in 9 months either, for that you need a woman and a man.



BV
25 SCL767 : That's great news for LAN Airlines S.A.
26 BMI727 : Considering that the current stabilizers seem to be doing alright, there is no need for it. Eventually the revised design from the -9 will be rolled
27 WarpSpeed : This is Boeing we're talking about here. It is not some small commercial plane manufacturer looking to go up market. They have tested many a new desi
28 328JET : Boeing has stated this possible slip into 2011 two or three times now with very careful words. I think we can take it as a given.
29 Post contains images astuteman : Airbus's experience post the A380 delays would suggest that this is not the case. IMO provided the 787 does what it says on the tin once it's in serv
30 Swallow : Well, to quote Yogi Berra, "It's like deja-vu, all over again" 'Delayed' is the new normal. There is hardly a new aircraft program these days that is
31 BlueSky1976 : Nope. That is not correct. You're taking the liberty of ommitting the fact that this corrected schedule was announced with the programme delays. I wa
32 Post contains links rheinwaldner : In the following thread your post didn't seem uncomfortable with the 6 month flight testing: Boeing Unveils Its 787 Flight-Test Plan (by Leelaw Jun 1
33 tdscanuck : You dodged the question...how do you plan for a requirement you don't know you have? Your answer seems to boil down to "Boeing should predict the fut
34 Post contains images Stitch : Exactly. Some of the customers are upset and annoyed, others are wiping the sweat from their brow that they didn't have to drop billions on new equip
35 Post contains images ElbowRoom : You mean 'started'
36 A380900 : Not in my book... Yes this duopoly has become very complacent. We're in dire need of a third competitor so that the two incumbents put their act toge
37 Post contains images TSS : Has there ever been an all-new aircraft design that was 100% "on-time"? If such a new aircraft program ever existed, did it have no "teething problem
38 WarpSpeed : No, my answer boils down to "Boeing can and should do better." I think most people (especially customers and investors) expect more from them. You li
39 Rheinbote : Really? I think the baseline plan always was 8,5 months including 15-20% buffer. The latest outlook added another 2-2,5 months of wiggle space. In th
40 tdscanuck : There's a tacit assumption there that a third competitor would do it better...I'd bet very strongly that, at least on their first clean-sheet attempt
41 JoeCanuck : Good thing it's not your decision, then. I wonder, since this is such an egregious delay, how it compares with delays in other recent aircraft progra
42 Post contains images Stitch : What I am saying is these problems have not resulted in the total loss of confidence in the 787 and, by extension, the entire portfolio of Boeing Com
43 skyhawk62507 : Boeing has just one real accomplishment on its books when it comes to the 787 -- the damn thing flies. By every other measure to date, its handling of
44 Beta : Anyone still remembers that 787 1st roll out event, ages ago, when BCA president at the time Scot Carlson made that rather ill-humor, below-the-belt j
45 Post contains images EPA001 : The answer to your question is stated in reply 10 of this thread. . The delay is getting quite close to 3 years indeed. .
46 UALWN : That was on 7/8/7, of course, three years and 10 days ago. Funny how nobody cared to celebrate the third anniversary...
47 queb : With plywood doors, it was pretty funny...
48 JoeCanuck : What's with all the b!tching...? What how many indignant posters have any stake whatsoever in either Boeing or Airbus...? Personally, I don't give a r
49 slz396 : Funny??? It was extremely arrogant, because he was publicly making fun of a competitor who's CEO had even bothered sending a very kind lettre to all
50 Antoniemey : Telling the world that your competitor's new plane will never fly?
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