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A & B Divergent Forecast For 400+ Seat Aircraft  
User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 48
Posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 1988 times:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...chieve-a380-delivery-forecast.html

Boeing is expecting demand for 720 aircraft(including 220 freighter) in the 400+ seat category, whereas Airbus is expecting demand for around 1,720 aircraft. These projections are for the next twenty years.

I wonder if this has any implication for the much talked about 80m 774ER.

2 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineEA772LR From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2836 posts, RR: 10
Reply 1, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 1899 times:

Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
Boeing is expecting demand for 720 aircraft(including 220 freighter) in the 400+ seat category,

Which would explain why Boeing hasn't built a VLA yet. Take out the freighters, and Boeing is forecasting 500 400+ aircraft. Split that market in half and that's only 250 planes each. Give or take. That's probably not nearly enough to justify an entirely new plane to combat the A380.

Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
Airbus is expecting demand for around 1,720 aircraft. These projections are for the next twenty years.

That seems high to me, but who knows. They've certainly got the VLA side covered well, with plenty of room to grow if need be. I think the A350-1000 likely may be stretched to the A350-1100, but I doubt they'd go farther, and the A350-1100 won't seat more even 400, so I think Airbus would have to create a new aircraft for that segment. They may wait to see what Boeing's gonna do with Y3.

Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
I wonder if this has any implication for the much talked about 80m 774ER.

I think Boeing should pursue the 77W-NG @ 10 abreast to give it 8,200nm range with 390+ passengers and an 80m 774ER with 7700nm+ range with 425+ passengers. It would kill of the 748I, but it's not like that model is selling. The 748F could help bolster that program.



We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 48
Reply 2, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 1719 times:

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 1):
I think Boeing should pursue the 77W-NG @ 10 abreast to give it 8,200nm range with 390+ passengers and an 80m 774ER with 7700nm+ range with 425+ passengers. It would kill of the 748I, but it's not like that model is selling. The 748F could help bolster that program.

I think Boeing could reach 8,200nm design range on 77W-NG at the current, or a slightly higher, 77W MTOW. The 774ER may have trouble achieving a range beyond 7,500nm, given MTOW limitations. It would still make a fine aircraft for medium haul/high density routes, and it shouldn't cost a lot to certify if it is a simple stretch. 748i and 774ER could coexist by appealing to different market segments in the VLA category.

Around 380 seats and beyond, a 10-abreast platform does better than a 9-abreast platform for equivalent technology. If Boeing does go for an all new 777 replacement, it would be optimised for the current 77W length(390+ seats) given Boeing's forecast for 400+ seat category.


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