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Update On California Pacific Airlines. (CP Air)  
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26169 posts, RR: 50
Posted (4 years 5 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 13900 times:

The proposed Palomar Airport Carlsbad based upstart California Pacific Airlines (refer to themselves now as CP Air) is continuing down the certification process and continues trading ever more documentation with Uncle Sam revealing more about their proposed plans.


Initial fleet:
2 E170s, with further 3rd and 4th aircraft “within first year” Future E190 also possible, with 10 aircraft forecast by 2015.
Has LOI with JetScape Leasing Corp for a single E170 available after Sept/Oct 2010. Negotiating for second aircraft.

Initial service points:
SJC, OAK, PHX, SMF with further proposed service to SJD 4x weekly. A couple places LAS is mentioned, but neither LAS or SJD are included in the start-up financial assumptions.
Their initial financial estimated call for 888 legs/1149 block hours on first month, that is basically 29/day. No way I can see 2 aircraft each operate 14 cycles/day.

o Now appears to be two class 68-seat configuration, down from their previous 3 class proposal.

o Estimates to receive various incentives from airports, largest being SJC to a tune of $543,000 for the first year.

o Will participate in GDS and travel agent commission sales.

o Average estimated average segment fare $78 for start up, rising to $107 by end of year one.

o Estimated load factor about 58% at start up rising to 69% at end of year one.

o Estimated year one Revenue $62.3mil

o Estimated year one Operating Cost $60.1mil

o JetBlue Airways to provide initial pilot and flight attendant training.

o Companies stated goal is: “The airline will offer competitive fares on all of its routes and will position itself in the eyes of the consumer as being a low fare carrier in its markets.”
(I’m sure Southwest won’t mind rolling out its $29/39/49 fares in response.)


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
48 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineGSPSPOT From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 3108 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (4 years 5 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 13883 times:

Does this look like "Son of PSA/Air Cal, etc." or will they likely spread beyond California?


Finally made it to an airline mecca!
User currently offlinebjorn14 From Norway, joined Feb 2010, 3695 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (4 years 5 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 13883 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Estimates to receive various incentives from airports, largest being SJC to a tune of $543,000 for the first year.

Didn't know SJC was that desperate for service especially to the SAN area.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Now appears to be two class 68-seat configuration, down from their previous 3 class proposal

That was a wise move.



"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26169 posts, RR: 50
Reply 3, posted (4 years 5 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 13694 times:

Quoting GSPSPOT (Reply 1):
Does this look like "Son of PSA/Air Cal, etc." or will they likely spread beyond California?

I believe this airline is more of a dream being pursued by the owner whom previously formed and ran San Diego based Air Resorts with CV-580 in the 70s and 80s.

Personally I don't see this upstart achieving much. Its likely in typical fashion cost assumptions are understated while revenue estimates are too rosy.
The day these guys manage to draw much traffic is the day folks like Southwest and United will respond fiercely back.
Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 2):
Didn't know SJC was that desperate for service especially to the SAN area.

Well with continued decline in boardings, and a new shinny terminal, I think they are happy to welcome anyone and everyone at the moment.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinewedgetail737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5951 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (4 years 5 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 13657 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):
The day these guys manage to draw much traffic is the day folks like Southwest and United will respond fiercely back.

That probably true. But with a base at Carlsbad, CA...it might be a little more difficult for direct competition (more for WN) since WN can't fly 737's into Carlsbad. UA might be easier by using UA Express.

Maybe QX will fly to Carlsbad. LOL!


User currently offlineAzncsa4qf744ER From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 697 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (4 years 5 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 13630 times:

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 4):
That probably true. But with a base at Carlsbad, CA...it might be a little more difficult for direct competition (more for WN) since WN can't fly 737's into Carlsbad. UA might be easier by using UA Express.



Sad to say but I don't think they will last. OO/UAX with four daily flights barely go out full and most are connecting to UA mainline at LAX.


User currently offlinedldtw1962 From United States of America, joined May 2009, 393 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (4 years 5 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 13562 times:

Yes, but if they keep their prices down just under or at OO/UAX and have alot better service then OO/UAX. They could pull it off. I know I don't like flying into SAN because it is so packed with people and you can't move very well. It also could use some up dating too. At lest in the United, Delta and American areas.

I hope it does go and they do well.

Chuck


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 26021 posts, RR: 22
Reply 7, posted (4 years 5 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 13536 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
The proposed Palomar Airport Carlsbad based upstart California Pacific Airlines (refer to themselves now as CP Air)

I doubt they're aware of the previous CP Air that had a slightly more extensive route network serving 5 continents. Recycling the name of a defunct airline sometimes brings bad luck.


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User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25703 posts, RR: 85
Reply 8, posted (4 years 5 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 13522 times:
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Quoting dldtw1962 (Reply 6):
I hope it does go and they do well.

I'm with you.

It's his money and if I had those millions lying around I'd start Mariner Airways in a heartbeat - with some very unusual routes.  

mariner

[Edited 2010-07-26 17:00:07]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26169 posts, RR: 50
Reply 9, posted (4 years 5 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 13483 times:

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 4):
That probably true. But with a base at Carlsbad, CA...it might be a little more difficult for direct competition (more for WN) since WN can't fly 737's into Carlsbad. UA might be easier by using UA Express.

I would think SWA can successfully box them in dollar for dollar fare by matching or even lead from both SAN or SNA.
If CP wants $75o/w fare to OAK, and SWA runs their $29/$39/$49 specials at SAN or SNA I'm sure many folks wont think twice and go with SWA.
Even fares being equal between the two will certainly see many stick to SWA for the sake of frequent flyer points, and the much broader schedule offering.

For example SWA has played intra-CA fares games with B6 without ever serving LGB by adjusting other LA basin airport fares. So I would not under estimate the market weight they can swing around.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 7):
I doubt they're aware of the previous CP Air

Oh I am sure the rather senior group of folks behind California Pacific are quite aware, and probably chose the moniker on purpose.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinebohica From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 2750 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 5 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 13481 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
CP Air

Does Air Canada still own any rights to the CP Air name?

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
No way I can see 2 aircraft each operate 14 cycles/day.

That would be about 19-21 hours of flying every day. Then we need to add turnaround times. It doesn't add up.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
“The airline will offer competitive fares on all of its routes and will position itself in the eyes of the consumer as being a low fare carrier in its markets.”
(I’m sure Southwest won’t mind rolling out its $29/39/49 fares in response.)

Any airline which currently flies between SOCAL and SJC, OAK, SMF, and PHX will match the fares dollar for dollar, add mileage bonuses, and dump seats onto these routes to run CP Air out of business. I guarantee it. It's happened many times before and it will happen again.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
o Estimated load factor about 58% at start up rising to 69% at end of year one.

o Estimated year one Revenue $62.3mil

o Estimated year one Operating Cost $60.1mil

I'm interested to know how they came up with these numbers. It sounds like someone is getting people to drink the blue kool-aid.


User currently offlinePITrules From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 3256 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (4 years 5 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 13420 times:

Too bad the E170 doesn't weigh about 5000# less. The reason I say that is if Carlsbad doesn't work out, a nice plan B would be to keep the same spokes, but slide the hub into LGB using those unused commuter (MTOW of 75,000#) slots. There would be competition on some routes, but still more potential than Carlsbad.

The CRJ700 might have been a better choice for this reason alone.



FLYi
User currently offlineMSYtristar From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (4 years 5 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 13368 times:

I wish this airline well of course, but if it lasts more than a year, I'd be greatly surprised. I'm not convinced that a two-class E70 is the best aircraft for these routes.

User currently offlineGSPSPOT From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 3108 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (4 years 5 months 3 days ago) and read 13259 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 7):
I doubt they're aware of the previous CP Air that had a slightly more extensive route network serving 5 continents. Recycling the name of a defunct airline sometimes brings bad luck.


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Ah, the Glory Days.... The original ("Sun King") National, CP Air, the original Northwest Orient - truly beautiful color schemes!



Finally made it to an airline mecca!
User currently offlineskyguyB727 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (4 years 5 months 3 days ago) and read 13224 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 7):
Recycling the name of a defunct airline sometimes brings bad luck.

I don't understand all these new airlines taking the name of a former airline (Frontier, Republic, Ozark, etc). It shows a lack of creativity. They can't even create a unique business name? To me, the lack of vision and creativity says a lot about the management team at those start-up companies.


User currently offlineC767P From United States of America, joined Oct 2008, 893 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 13141 times:

I mentioned this before…word on the field is that Ted Vallas has enough money to operate and allow the airline to bleed money for five years. His kids are grown and have money and he rather do this instead of give it away.

The problem with UA/OO at CRQ is you have to fly to LAX and only LAX and you have to fly UA.

Quoting dldtw1962 (Reply 6):
It also could use some up dating too. At lest in the United, Delta and American areas.

Delta operates out of the newest part of Terminal 2 and is the nicest of the terminals at Lindbergh.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 26021 posts, RR: 22
Reply 16, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 13026 times:

Quoting bohica (Reply 10):
Does Air Canada still own any rights to the CP Air name?

If anyone still has rights to the name it's more likely to be Canadian Pacific Railway, today's successor of CP Air's parent company, then known as Canadian Pacific Limited, the large conglomerate with subsidiaries involved in shipping, trucking, hotels, telecommunications, oil exploration, coal mining and a few others, in addition to the railway and airline. All the non-rail activities were spun off into separate companies during the 1980s and 1990s.

CP Air was always just a marketing name. The legal name remained Canadian Pacific Air Lines, Limited, but "CP" used in the logo of the various CP subsidiaries was a trademark of the parent company. By the time AC took over, it was Canadian Airlines International, created in 1987 when Canadian Pacific sold the airline to regional carrier Pacific Western Airlines. CP Air had reverted to the full Canadian Pacific Air Lines name at the end of 1985, only a year before the airline was sold and formed part of the new Canadian Airlines.

Probably not much risk of a new CP Air being confused with the other CP operation.

http://www.railpictures.net/images/d1/5/3/9/7539.1244729287.jpg

[Edited 2010-07-26 19:34:47]

User currently offlinewedgetail737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5951 posts, RR: 6
Reply 17, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 12976 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 9):
For example SWA has played intra-CA fares games with B6 without ever serving LGB by adjusting other LA basin airport fares. So I would not under estimate the market weight they can swing around.

That may be true, but you don't see B6 failing on all the intra-CA route...whereas, you are insinuating that California Pacific Airways (I refuse to call it CPAir, for now) doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of surviving with WN around them.

I guess we'll wait and see. Best of luck to California Pacific.


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6826 posts, RR: 32
Reply 18, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 12948 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Initial fleet:
2 E170s, with further 3rd and 4th aircraft “within first year” Future E190 also possible, with 10 aircraft forecast by 2015.
Has LOI with JetScape Leasing Corp for a single E170 available after Sept/Oct 2010. Negotiating for second aircraft.

I wonder if this is the destination of the single E170 which Republic intends to shed this fall.

Speaking of Republic, I wonder if it wouldn't make sense to hire a carrier like Republic (or Trans States with their newly-acquired Compass subsidiary) for the first few years, rather than going to the significant initial expense of obtaining a new certificate. With Republic, it might even be possible to negotiate a deal for E170's to be sold to CP Air as part of a shift to doing the flying on their own certificate in the future, given that we know that RAH would like to reduce its E170 fleet somewhat.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
o Average estimated average segment fare $78 for start up, rising to $107 by end of year one.

o Estimated load factor about 58% at start up rising to 69% at end of year one.

o Estimated year one Revenue $62.3mil

o Estimated year one Operating Cost $60.1mil

The numbers just don't make any sense. With an average of three aircraft for the first year, assuming an average load factor of 65% (from their estimates) and an average fare of $100 (toward the high end of their estimates), they would have to have each aircraft flying 13 legs per day on average to hit their revenue numbers.

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 4):
But with a base at Carlsbad, CA...it might be a little more difficult for direct competition (more for WN) since WN can't fly 737's into Carlsbad. UA might be easier by using UA Express.

WN doesn't have to compete directly. They'll still have a superior schedule from SAN/SNA and they can reduce fares to put the squeeze on CP Air.


User currently offlinerikkus67 From Canada, joined Jun 2000, 1684 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 12910 times:

Imitation can be a high form of compliment, however the flying public might have not even heard (that much) about the original CP Air. Take for instance Air Valee:


...funny how remnants can creep back, no matter how vague the airline...

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take a good look at the logo.... now compare it to another former carrier:

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Photo © Alain Rioux




AC.WA.CP.DL.RW.CO.WG.WJ.WN.KI.FL.SK.ACL.UA.US.F9
User currently offlinebohica From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 2750 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 12860 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 16):
If anyone still has rights to the name it's more likely to be Canadian Pacific Railway

I completely forgot about that. Thanks.


User currently offlineAirframeAS From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 14150 posts, RR: 24
Reply 21, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 12790 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 7):
I doubt they're aware of the previous CP Air that had a slightly more extensive route network serving 5 continents. Recycling the name of a defunct airline sometimes brings bad luck.

I don't think they are "recycling" the name, as you put it. Nor do I think that was their intent. "CP" can pretty much mean anything, but no more than a nickname. I don't think anyone would cause a hissy fit over the "CP" thing as long as the operator makes it crystal clear in a legal disclaimer on what CP really stands for when it comes to them.



A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
User currently offlinemrskyguy From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1214 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 12775 times:

It's pretty clear that this startup has more to do with the promotion of Carlsbad than it does actually starting and running a competitive airline (that won't be quickly swallowed alive by either A) the competition, B) the cost of operations or C) all of the above.

I'd much rather see a carrier pull in to San Bernardino and serve from there. Costs would be low, growth would be possible and fleet choices wouldn't be so limited.



"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee." -- Gunter's 2nd Law of Air
User currently offlineEMBQA From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 9364 posts, RR: 11
Reply 23, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 12775 times:

Quoting bohica (Reply 10):
That would be about 19-21 hours of flying every day. Then we need to add turnaround times. It doesn't add up.

That leaves no time for the required nightly maintenance checks.



"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25703 posts, RR: 85
Reply 24, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 12753 times:
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Quoting mrskyguy (Reply 22):
It's pretty clear that this startup has more to do with the promotion of Carlsbad than it does actually starting and running a competitive airline (that won't be quickly swallowed alive by either A) the competition, B) the cost of operations or C) all of the above.

That isn't clear to me.

mariner



aeternum nauta
25 C767P : Yet the three gates at SBD sit empty, and this airline is starting up at CRQ….
26 F9Animal : I think they might surprise us. They are not a "rookie" team of folks getting this airline off the ground. They have tons of experience, and seem to h
27 mrskyguy : It sure is to me after reading the bios of the airline's mahogany row and the deadlocked focus on Carlsbad despite serious limitations is sustainabil
28 Alias1024 : I'd have to disagree. Carlsbad offers some insulation from competition that San Bernardino does not. It's only about 20 miles from downtown San Berna
29 mariner : Okay, but it isn't clear to me. Now - he may very well love the area and believes it is a good place to base an airline, but that's different from sa
30 Dl767captain : It may force UA to start more UAX flights out of CLD, US Airways (well America West) used to fly CLD-PHX maybe UA would start that up again with US.
31 bjorn14 : I don't think the E170s can make it that far out of CLD because of the runway lenght. I'm still wondering how they're going to do SJD. Yes, entirely
32 LAXintl : Yes the utilization numbers don't look right for start up. If they had 4 planes, then I'd buy it, but with the 2 projected the planned block hours an
33 ScottB : You might fly out of CLD if the schedule is adequate. Southwest runs SAN-OAK, for example, with departures every 1-2 hours. If CP is running (optimis
34 Salukipilot : Haha! I applied as a pilot a few months back....wonder if they'll call me when they get their stuff together. Wonder what the compensation is rumored
35 Dl767captain : 4 Daily flight would be plenty for me, one in the morning (8am?) I would assume then one around 12 or 1? That would be fine as I don't exactly requir
36 mtnwest1979 : For one thing talking about SBD, aren't there more affluent potential pax near CLD/CRQ than SBD? And if I were in SBD, I wouldn't mind going thru empt
37 LAXintl : A more realistic schedule is 2x daily in each of the 4 initial market. That makes 16 flights/day and 8 cycles per plane, not the crazy number they hav
38 Post contains images ScottB : Scary... and I see a couple of months behind you. Crazy how much the industry has changed in that time! True, but the money is in the passengers who
39 Viscount724 : You say they refer to themselves as CP Air but on checking their website, the only reference I can see to "CP Air" is in their "flycpair.com" URL and
40 ridgid727 : I think CalPac will try to initially start with what they are talking about,but will soon tweak it, add other markets, reduce some frquencies in marke
41 LAXintl : Since about May virtualy all their filings have used the CP monkier. More specifically, various portions; California Pacific Airlines (hereinafter re
42 mtnwest1979 : I would like to see a nonstop to San Diego County area, but I would be surprised to see another attempt at it.
43 Dl767captain : Right but for routes like PHX where people are most likely going for a vacation for a few days or Vegas for the weekend it won't be day trips
44 LAXintl : I don't really see these cities for a variety of reason, but two biggest being the operational limitations they will face at CLD with the very short
45 Post contains links RIDGID727 : Quite understandably, however, I sat in on a meeting with him, in late 2008 and these cities were metnioned. additionally there is an article in whic
46 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Interesting about the incentives from SJC.....they could have used the money keeping more established carriers such as AA, WN and AS happier....
47 LAXintl : Yes its nice that SJC is willing to spend incentives on attracting service, but yes I agree with you that might be more helpful in working to retain c
48 mrskyguy : Maybe I'm just too cynical in today's airline world, but I just don't see CP Air having a chance. If they do somehow experience any modicum of success
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