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CO/UA IAH -> S. America Gauge Vx. Freq Ch'nge?  
User currently offlinesldispatcher From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 386 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 4463 times:

I know it is early, but what does this forum think the biggest gauge change vs. frequency change targets will be out of Houston to South America?

I would assume, to some extent, that the present United will really be able to help feed quite a bit of connecting traffic over Houston and onto South America.

For instance, I just came back from UIO. The 737-700 has been packed each time I've been down there. I know at one point, CAL had a 752 on the route, but those obviously got shifted elsewhere.

So if you were running the new airline, how would you treat the specific IAH gateway to Central and South America in terms of frequency versus gauge?

[Edited 2010-08-02 06:15:08]

39 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCOflyerBOS From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 304 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 4387 times:

GRU seems right sized right now. At the most, maybe a UA 763 takes over for the 762.

I could see both GIG and EZE getting the 777 at least during the high travel seasons.

CCS will probably stay a 738/9 depending upon the season. Just can't project much growth to Venezuela these days due to the economy and Chavez. This is a shame too, because I'd love to see a 73G to Maracaibo (oil) someday.

The double daily service to BOG is working out well. One of the 73G has switched to a 738 this summer. There was a rumor that management regretted ditching the service to CLO. Maybe that one comes back?

GYE service was cut. I could see that one coming back online before UIO is upsized.

LIM could possibly go double daily. The 757 is pretty much packed year round.

The only likely new service I could see would be to Santiago. The Chilean market is small, but between a right sized 762 and the potential cargo market, it could work. As for right now, CO is making use of the PTY hub to move IAH passengers down to Chile.


User currently offlinesldispatcher From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 386 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 4324 times:

Thanks for the insight.

I've been to Maracaibo as well. What a hole. That was on AA out of Miami. 738.

Next year will be very interesting.


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16798 posts, RR: 51
Reply 3, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 4317 times:

IAH used to have more 757-200 flights which has dwindled over the years as EWR has grown it's Trans-Atlatic 757 network, I could see some UA 757-200s moving to IAH to operate routes like IAH-CCS, IAH-LIM, IAH-SJO, IAH-PTY etc..


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineFlyingSicilian From Italy, joined Mar 2009, 1292 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 4164 times:

Quoting COflyerBOS (Reply 1):
because I'd love to see a 73G to Maracaibo (oil) someday.

You, me, dozens of Citgo employees that route through Panama City or Miami, and plenty of other Venezuelans in Houston. I enjoyed my time living in MAR actually. Maybe one day I can return non-stop!



Ciao Windjet mi manchi
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22681 posts, RR: 20
Reply 5, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4009 times:

Quoting COflyerBOS (Reply 1):
GRU seems right sized right now. At the most, maybe a UA 763 takes over for the 762.

I could see both GIG and EZE getting the 777 at least during the high travel seasons.

I think GRU, GIG, and EZE all depend on what happens at the other hubs. With GRU service from 4 hubs, an upgrade to GRU probably will mean a downgrade from another hub - but both IADGRU and ORDGRU are 772 at least some of the time, and I don't know that 3 772s is appropriate. That said, if they can stick a 3 class 763 on ORDGRU, the 772 might be better used from IAH at the times when 772 service from the middle of the country is appropriate.

To EZE, if they can find the aircraft (and don't want to send them elsewhere e.g. SCL), ORDEZE might be an interesting 762 route. UA said they were happy with it when it ran, and the smaller 2-class airplane is probably the aircraft that can make it work if anything can.

Quoting COflyerBOS (Reply 1):
The only likely new service I could see would be to Santiago.

Is it worth tying up 1.5 762s? That's a tough question - most of the incremental capacity adds to SCL by US carriers have been rescinded.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8727 posts, RR: 5
Reply 6, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3977 times:
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Quoting COflyerBOS (Reply 1):
The Chilean market is small, but between a right sized 762 and the potential cargo market, it could work. As for right now, CO is making use of the PTY hub to move IAH passengers down to Chile.

CO wouldn't do well on the route if they attempted IAH-SCL, IMO. The market is indeed small, plus AA operates DFW-SCL daily (B763) and DL operates ATL-SCL daily (B763). AC still combines the YYZ-SCL route with EZE. The market is also well-covered from MIA and JFK.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11406 posts, RR: 59
Reply 7, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3956 times:
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Quoting sldispatcher (Thread starter):
I know it is early, but what does this forum think the biggest gauge change vs. frequency change targets will be out of Houston to South America?

It will be easy to upgauge routes due to frequency limitations.
Lets say, IAH with no doubt become the major oil destination, and i do expect that an upgauge to South America will bring the 772 to Rio de Janeiro as IAH-GIG (oil to oil) is with no doubt one of their best performer routes to South America (if not the best). Would be great if they add a 3-class 772. In my view would be better a second flight with 762, but frequencies, as i said, it's a problem.
Buenos Aires and Sao Paulo are currently served with 762, and i do expect Bs Aires in the near future, when oil industry reacts and market become easier, to receive the 763. I don't expect Sao Paulo to be upgauged as per past threads said that the performance is below other routes with 762. Therefore, should stay with 762 and use the extra potential capacity from other hubs where the traffic and yields are better. Plus, IAH could be one market damaged by DL DTW-GRU future service.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8727 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 3860 times:
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Quoting STT757 (Reply 3):
I could see some UA 757-200s moving to IAH to operate routes like IAH-CCS, IAH-LIM, IAH-SJO, IAH-PTY etc.

IMO, CO will continue to operate IAH-POS daily with a mix of B737s in order to maximize yields even though F is usually full. IAH-POS is a very lucrative route, (oil and oil). Also, I would expect to see CO dropping both EWR-POS and EWR-CUR. UA should consider adding IAD-POS since they will not face any competition on the route, at this time.


User currently offlineaznmadsci From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 3655 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3785 times:

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 7):
Plus, IAH could be one market damaged by DL DTW-GRU future service.

How so? Because of DTW-Japan connections? I agree with you, but was curious with this point.



The journey of life is not based on the accomplishments, but the experience.
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11406 posts, RR: 59
Reply 10, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3738 times:
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Quoting aznmadsci (Reply 9):
How so? Because of DTW-Japan connections? I agree with you, but was curious with this point.

Because IAH captures for sure some traffic from the same areas that DTW now could be focusing. Not because of Japan or Asia, more about US connections. It's the smaller O&D (Houston-Sao Paulo) and CO rely on connections to fill the plane. Now with DL offering the same, and even with more J seats, i would say the IAH service is the less defined as O&D for Sao Paulo.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineCODC10 From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 2389 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 3723 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 8):
Also, I would expect to see CO dropping both EWR-POS and EWR-CUR.

Not sure why you say this. They have held on for a long time and EWR can always generate plenty of traffic to Caribbean destinations. I doubt either route would work out of IAD if they aren't already successful from EWR.


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8727 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 3695 times:
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Quoting CODC10 (Reply 11):
They have held on for a long time and EWR can always generate plenty of traffic to Caribbean destinations.

EWR-POS only operates on a daily basis during the Holiday season and during the months of July and August. Then it reverts to a weekly service.

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 11):
I doubt either route would work out of IAD if they aren't already successful from EWR.

The Washington D.C. area has a large Trinidadian community and no non-stop flights between BWI/IAD and POS. UA will be able to tap into the VFR market; without any competition. BWIA used to operate between IAD and POS in the past. However, the service was discontinued when BWIA shut down in 2006.


User currently offlineCODC10 From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 2389 posts, RR: 6
Reply 13, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 3675 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 12):
EWR-POS only operates on a daily basis during the Holiday season and during the months of July and August. Then it reverts to a weekly service.

Many CO Caribbean destinations operate on a weekly basis outside of peak tourist/VFR seasons. Just about every city pair sees a considerable seasonal adjustment.

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 12):
The Washington D.C. area has a large Trinidadian community and no non-stop flights between BWI/IAD and POS. UA will be able to tap into the VFR market; without any competition. BWIA used to operate between IAD and POS in the past. However, the service was discontinued when BWIA shut down in 2006.

So these are indications that the routes will be moved to IAD? If the Trinidadian community around Washington generates such strong demand, I would expect IAD to receive its own service, and not cannibalize EWR, which serves an entirely different market.


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8727 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 3657 times:
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Quoting CODC10 (Reply 13):
Many CO Caribbean destinations operate on a weekly basis outside of peak tourist/VFR seasons. Just about every city pair sees a considerable seasonal adjustment.

This certainly is not the case with AA and B6.

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 13):
If the Trinidadian community around Washington generates such strong demand, I would expect IAD to receive its own service, and not cannibalize EWR, which serves an entirely different market.

The NYC-POS market is dominated by BW. Whereas there are no services between IAD and POS. IAD-POS can operate at least 3x weekly on a year-round basis; plus increased frequencies during the peak seasons.


User currently offlineCODC10 From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 2389 posts, RR: 6
Reply 15, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 3520 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 14):
This certainly is not the case with AA and B6.

I missed the point where AA/B6 out of JFK became relevant to this discussion.

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 14):
The NYC-POS market is dominated by BW. Whereas there are no services between IAD and POS. IAD-POS can operate at least 3x weekly on a year-round basis; plus increased frequencies during the peak seasons.

Who is to say CO does not make money on EWR-POS? Again, why would IAD-POS necessarily cannibalize EWR-POS? If IAD-POS were such a lucrative market, why did BW exit and why hasn't any other carrier entered?


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8727 posts, RR: 5
Reply 16, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 3487 times:
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Quoting CODC10 (Reply 15):

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 14):
This certainly is not the case with AA and B6.

I missed the point where AA/B6 out of JFK became relevant to this discussion.

In the NYC area; only AA and B6 can operate into the Caribbean with daily flights year-round. DL and CO seem to have trouble operating daily year-round services into the Caribbean from the NYC area.

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 15):
Who is to say CO does not make money on EWR-POS?

If the route makes money, then why will CO soon revert the service back to a weekly service?


User currently offlinehardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 50
Reply 17, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3449 times:

Quoting COflyerBOS (Reply 1):
I could see both GIG and EZE getting the 777 at least during the high travel seasons.
Quoting COflyerBOS (Reply 1):
GRU seems right sized right now. At the most, maybe a UA 763 takes over for the 762.

UA is flying all B777 to GRU from IAD and ORD, it has been upgraded las month.

As for CO operations, I agree with Lipe, we could expect IAH-GIG to become B772, I would not be surprised.

Rgs,


User currently offlinefun2fly From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1024 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3417 times:

Regarding SCL, I'd venture to guess AC would forfiet the tag on and let CO run the 762 from IAH. Even without, the UAA feed should be enought to make it profitable. I'd bet not until all 11 788's are delivered in 2012 n. hemisphere fall however. How long has it been since UA was out of the market? I think SCL originated at ORD.

User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17286 posts, RR: 46
Reply 19, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3414 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 16):
In the NYC area; only AA and B6 can operate into the Caribbean with daily flights year-round. DL and CO seem to have trouble operating daily year-round services into the Caribbean from the NYC area.

AA does not believe in seasonality, anywhere, anytime. It's unusual that they seasonally drop JFKUVF. CO still operates the vast majority of its CRB services year round however.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineCODC10 From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 2389 posts, RR: 6
Reply 20, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3404 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 16):

In the NYC area; only AA and B6 can operate into the Caribbean with daily flights year-round. DL and CO seem to have trouble operating daily year-round services into the Caribbean from the NYC area.

JFK is an entirely different beast from EWR... VFR traffic to a number of destinations makes it advantageous for AA or B6 to operate daily, year-round service to most destinations. While EWR has considerable VFR traffic to a number of destinations (PR and DR, mostly) from the NJ side, CO's schedule, including aircraft choice and frequency, revolves around the peak tourist seasons when the routes are generally profitable. Service to cities like STT, ANU, GCM, BON, POS and CUR are leisure-oriented and daily service will only be offered (if at all) during the high season. On the other hand, routes like SJU, BQN, SDQ, PUJ, MBJ, AUA, or POP receive daily service through most of the year because of a high percentage of EWR-originating VFR traffic or a large year-round tourist market.

I can't speak for DL at JFK but it seems that the JFK market to most Caribbean destinations is saturated with local carriers, AA as the established incumbent, and B6 with a low-fare image. DL might be the odd man out in some instances.

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 16):

If the route makes money, then why will CO soon revert the service back to a weekly service?

Are you suggesting that a route's frequency is the best indicator as to profitability? If so, then why are you advocating a 3x (or so) weekly IAD-POP to replace CO's existing EWR-POP? If the route was a loss-maker, then CO would simply cut it, much like they have wtih BGI, KIN, PSE, and STX.

It's also worth noting that EWR-POS is tied to the highly profitable IAH-POS route. When both flights are operating, one aircraft will run IAH-POS-EWR while the other aircraft will do EWR-POS-IAH. This allows for optimal departure times on IAH-POS-IAH and maximum utilization.


User currently offlineCODC10 From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 2389 posts, RR: 6
Reply 21, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3403 times:

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 20):
weekly IAD-POP to replace CO's existing EWR-POP?

Post should read IAD-POS and EWR-POS.

My edit function seems to be inop.


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8727 posts, RR: 5
Reply 22, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3388 times:
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Quoting CODC10 (Reply 20):
If so, then why are you advocating a 3x (or so) weekly IAD-POP to replace CO's existing EWR-POP?

IAD-POS is an untapped VFR market.

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 20):
It's also worth noting that EWR-POS is tied to the highly profitable IAH-POS route. When both flights are operating, one aircraft will run IAH-POS-EWR while the other aircraft will do EWR-POS-IAH. This allows for optimal departure times on IAH-POS-IAH and maximum utilization.

How does it operate when EWR-POS is served weekly; alongside the daily IAH-POS service?


User currently offlineCODC10 From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 2389 posts, RR: 6
Reply 23, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3338 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 22):

IAD-POS is an untapped VFR market.

I don't doubt this, but I do disagree that it will be served at the expense of EWR.

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 22):

How does it operate when EWR-POS is served weekly; alongside the daily IAH-POS service?

The inbound IAH equipment RON at POS, then makes up POS-IAH the next morning.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22681 posts, RR: 20
Reply 24, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 3244 times:

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 18):
I'd venture to guess AC would forfiet the tag on and let CO run the 762 from IAH

Do AC and UA have ATI on South America services?



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
25 LAXdude1023 : Considering the YYZ-SCL market is much larger than IAH-SCL and that its is Canada's sole SCL service, I think that would be very unwise.
26 SCL767 : LAN Chile operates a direct service between SCL and YYZ via JFK 5x weekly.
27 LAXdude1023 : Its not quite the same. YYZ-SCL on AC is Canada's only nonstop flight to Chile.
28 SCL767 : It's also Canada's only direct service between YYZ and EZE. AC operates the route as YYZ-SCL-EZE-SCL-YYZ.
29 LipeGIG : No, but they begin to code-share. You can fly EWR-GRU on CO and use UA GRU-GIG flight nowadays to reach Rio de Janeiro.
30 Cubsrule : It's also a really nice option to Chile for many of us in the eastern half of the US and, for that matter, for folks in the northwest too.
31 Viscount724 : That's not correct. AC and UA have global ATI as part of the DOT's grant of ATI to the alliance agreement covering 10 Star Alliance carriers: AC, OS,
32 LipeGIG : Viscount, thanks for the correction, i totally forget about the ATI and it's terms (worldwide coverage). I was thinking more about the merger than th
33 GlobalCabotage : Once the merger is approved, routes / equipment will start to move immediately (will still be CO / UA flight numbers until the Operating Certicates ar
34 Cubsrule : AM flies ORDMEX...
35 Post contains images kgaiflyer : Since UA 757s travel pretty much *full* on their current routes, there will need to be some serious trade-offs. I'm guessing CO 739ERs would work @ 1
36 kgaiflyer : 757 service specifically from IAH to PTY isn't needed. Both IAH and IAD have Copa service. EWR has codeshare service with Copa (remember CO owns 10%
37 drerx7 : COPA does not serve IAH. So IAH-PTY could use 757 service, there is heavy traffic between the two. COPA is not allowed to fly to IAH due to the agree
38 CALPSAFltSkeds : Currently there's one 753 and one 738 IAH-PTY plus EWR-PTY is a 739. I see the 753 going away from daily IAH-PTY in Sept, but a 752 doesn't add much
39 LipeGIG : How about IAD ? You have to look that IAH covers BOG, CCS, GIG, EZE, plus GRU, LIM and SJO, among others. And i believe their best flights to South A
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