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How Much Potential Does The SEA-Asia Market Have?  
User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1541 posts, RR: 1
Posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 4309 times:

I was just thinking about how both DL and UA offer t-pac service out of SEA, and whether the O&D there is really big enough to support heavy competition on the routes, given that SEA is at most a gateway for either. Or does Tokyo, for instance just have that much demand that they can fill as many seats as they can allocate to SEA-NRT service?

28 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinebobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6440 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 4283 times:

Quoting LHCVG (Thread starter):
Or does Tokyo, for instance just have that much demand that they can fill as many seats as they can allocate to SEA-NRT service?

Both the UA and SEA flights from Tokyo are filled mainly with Asia originating passengers and not US originating pasengers and both appear to be doing quite well.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24786 posts, RR: 46
Reply 2, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 4234 times:

I dont have more recent numbers, but as a point of reference SEA in 2007 generated 800,000 O&D Asia-Pacific trips. In comparision SF Bay Area was 3.9mil, and LA region was 7.3mil.
Largest SEA international market, no surprise is Canada which generated 900,000 O&D air trips in 2007.

Key to any long term growth for SEA longhaul flying to Asia would be to garner feed as I don't see the city supporting much more on its own, especialy with continued existing leakage to YVR.

[Edited 2010-08-04 08:45:18]


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinerwSEA From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 3077 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 4192 times:

If fares are any indication, DL's new routes to KIX and PEK seem to be doing quite well. Based on a random sample of dates, fares are astronomical (think around $3K r/t) and only higher buckets are available. Business looks decent too.

I think there's still potential for a couple of additional destinations, with NGO, HKG, and PVG leading the pack. NGO is within easy 767 range, which HKG and PVG could be 4-5x weekly on the 777. This would be on top of the existing services to ICN and TPE. There's a fair amount of low yielding traffic to Vietnam and Thailand, but OZ, KE, and BR cater to that market quite well. The O&D is decent on its own, but there's lots of connection possibilities between AS and DL.


User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1541 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 4126 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
Key to any long term growth for SEA longhaul flying to Asia would be to garner feed as I don't see the city supporting much more on its own, especialy with continued existing leakage to YVR.

That's where I was coming from -- it seems like expansion of Asia service will require generating additional feed. But then again:

Quoting rwSEA (Reply 3):
The O&D is decent on its own, but there's lots of connection possibilities between AS and DL.

So I guess DL can leverage the AS presence at SEA as a proxy hub. But that still leaves me wonder about UA since, I'd think that SFO and LAX get by far the lion's share of any connecting traffic (is SEA even a valid UA connecting point?).


User currently offlineB752OS From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1322 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 4032 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
I dont have more recent numbers, but as a point of reference SEA in 2007 generated 800,000 O&D Asia-Pacific trips. In comparision SF Bay Area was 3.9mil, and LA region was 7.3mil.
Largest SEA international market, no surprise is Canada which generated 900,000 O&D air trips in 2007.

Key to any long term growth for SEA longhaul flying to Asia would be to garner feed as I don't see the city supporting much more on its own, especialy with continued existing leakage to YVR.

Out of curiosity, do you happen to know the top 10 cities for generating Asia O&D in North America?


User currently offlineEddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7560 posts, RR: 43
Reply 6, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 3942 times:

There is talk KE will soon request authorization to operate SEA-MEX with fifth freedom rights as a continuation of its ICN-SEA flights (to be ICN-SEA-MEX-SEA-ICN). I don't know if the tag-on should be interpreted as a measure by KE to bolster loads on ICN-SEA, or if this is simply a matter of KE interested in serving SkyTeam hub MEX.


Next flights: MEX-GRU (AM 77E), GRU-GIG (JJ A320), SDU-CGH (G3 73H), GRU-MEX (JJ A332).
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24786 posts, RR: 46
Reply 7, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 3781 times:

Quoting B752OS (Reply 5):
Out of curiosity, do you happen to know the top 10 cities for generating Asia O&D in North America?

Top-10 aiports for Asia-Pacific O&D demand from the US in 2007 were;

LAX - 7.3mil
SFO - 3.9m
HNL - 3.7m
GUM - 2.6m
ORD - 1.9m
JFK - 1.6m
DTW - 1.0m
SEA - 0.8m
SPN - 0.8m
EWR - 0.7m



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinerwSEA From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 3077 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 3514 times:

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 4):
So I guess DL can leverage the AS presence at SEA as a proxy hub. But that still leaves me wonder about UA since, I'd think that SFO and LAX get by far the lion's share of any connecting traffic (is SEA even a valid UA connecting point?).

It is and connections are regularly offered from DEN and of course PDX/GEG. Also occasionally some connections from ORD and SFO/LAX. Used to be more when there was no direct IAD service, however.


User currently offlinedxer1974 From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 33 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3392 times:

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 6):
There is talk KE will soon request authorization to operate SEA-MEX with fifth freedom rights as a continuation of its ICN-SEA flights (to be ICN-SEA-MEX-SEA-ICN). I don't know if the tag-on should be interpreted as a measure by KE to bolster loads on ICN-SEA, or if this is simply a matter of KE interested in serving SkyTeam hub MEX.

Would this mean you would be able to buy a ticket on KE SEA-MEX and back?



"That's the thing about the 707, it can do everything but read it" Joe Patroni
User currently offlinerwSEA From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 3077 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3363 times:

Quoting dxer1974 (Reply 9):
Would this mean you would be able to buy a ticket on KE SEA-MEX and back?

Yes, because it is an international flight, local traffic would be allowed.


User currently offlinedxer1974 From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 33 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3359 times:

Quoting rwSEA (Reply 10):
Yes, because it is an international flight, local traffic would be allowed.

Cool. that would be a interesting option to Mexico since SEA does not have the AM non-stop anymore.



"That's the thing about the 707, it can do everything but read it" Joe Patroni
User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2489 posts, RR: 7
Reply 12, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3323 times:

Quoting rwSEA (Reply 3):
I think there's still potential for a couple of additional destinations, with NGO, HKG, and PVG leading the pack

UA did the SEA/HKG route years ago, would love to see someone pick it up again. The others you mention could work as well if someone teams up with AS for code-share. From purely a spotter's perspective, it would be neat to see a carrier other than say DL or UA fly one of these routes, someone not currently serving SEA. Maybe CX, JL, NH. Hey, I can dream, can't I?  


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7492 posts, RR: 24
Reply 13, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3268 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7):

Top-10 aiports for Asia-Pacific O&D demand from the US in 2007 were;

Do you have any data for the next 10 O&D markets to Asia?



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineTWA902fly From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 3122 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 3218 times:

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 4):
So I guess DL can leverage the AS presence at SEA as a proxy hub. But that still leaves me wonder about UA since, I'd think that SFO and LAX get by far the lion's share of any connecting traffic (is SEA even a valid UA connecting point?).

Don't forget that both have hubs on the other end as well. DL has it's own hub at NRT... and UA has a few flights as well as all of ANA's flights.

'902



life wasn't worth the balance, or the crumpled paper it was written on
User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1541 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 3181 times:

Quoting rwSEA (Reply 8):
It is and connections are regularly offered from DEN and of course PDX/GEG. Also occasionally some connections from ORD and SFO/LAX. Used to be more when there was no direct IAD service, however.

Now that you mention it, I do remember talk on here about PDX-SEA-xxx connections to Asia on UA. So as long as it's a connecting point then I guess problem solved, even if the US side isn't a hub per se.


User currently offlineEddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7560 posts, RR: 43
Reply 16, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 3154 times:

Quoting rwSEA (Reply 10):
Yes, because it is an international flight, local traffic would be allowed.

As long as 5th freedom rights are granted to KE. Otherwise no. I think if KE goes ahead, it is quite likely they will get 5th freedom rights.



Next flights: MEX-GRU (AM 77E), GRU-GIG (JJ A320), SDU-CGH (G3 73H), GRU-MEX (JJ A332).
User currently offlineJayinKitsap From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 769 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 3052 times:

Delta was doing 2 A330 flights SEA-NRT during the summer, then just 1 in the Winter, switching capacity between NRT and HNL from SEA. I looked recently for flights in October to NRT and it appears that there is one A330 with Delta and one 777 with United doing the route at that time. They look already pretty full.

Some times when Delta has 2 planes the plane is like 75% full, but when only 1 it is always jammed. I believe the UA plane is nearly always full.

I think in this market, having the AS big hub here hurts international feeder + SEA is not that large of a market. Delta and United do not have a lot of US flights into SEA that it can be a hub for. Delta does use AS as a partner with a number of code shares but if it isn't their metal.


User currently offlinewedgetail737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5890 posts, RR: 6
Reply 18, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 3022 times:
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Quoting EddieDude (Reply 6):
There is talk KE will soon request authorization to operate SEA-MEX with fifth freedom rights as a continuation of its ICN-SEA flights (to be ICN-SEA-MEX-SEA-ICN). I don't know if the tag-on should be interpreted as a measure by KE to bolster loads on ICN-SEA, or if this is simply a matter of KE interested in serving SkyTeam hub MEX.
Quoting dxer1974 (Reply 9):
Would this mean you would be able to buy a ticket on KE SEA-MEX and back?

Don't forget that Hainan Airlines has expressed interest in serving MEX from Beijing...most likely via SEA using A330's. So SEA could have two unusual ways of flying SEA-MEX RT.


User currently offlineSurfandSnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2844 posts, RR: 30
Reply 19, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 2964 times:

Quoting LHCVG (Thread starter):
both DL and UA offer t-pac service out of SEA

Let's not forget about the Asian carriers that serve the airport as well: OZ, BR, HU, and KE.

Quoting LHCVG (Thread starter):
whether the O&D there is really big enough to support heavy competition on the routes

Heavy competition? UA only flies the SEA-NRT route, on which it only competes with DL - an airline with a very similar product and cost structure. Now, if you had a 4-way battle between UA, DL, JL, and NH, then yes, you would have "heavy" competition. DL enjoys a monopoly on the SEA-KIX route and only has to compete against HU (Hainan Airlines) on the SEA-PEK sector. Given that HU is virtually unknown to the U.S. market, DL probably gets most of the highly profitable American biz traffic. So, on all three SEA-Asia routes that the U.S. carriers serve, competition is not "heavy" at all!

Quoting LHCVG (Thread starter):
given that SEA is at most a gateway for either

In this day and age, an international gateway is a very big deal - the U.S. legacy carriers have all but done away with smaller hubs, focus cities, and non-hub int'l gateways to consolidate around their major (often fortress) hubs.

Remember, both UA and NW have served Asia from SEA for decades - UA flew its very first intercontinental routes from SEA back in the early 80's (long before they linked SFO, LAX, or ORD with Asia), whilst NW utilized the airport as a primary Asian gateway for many years when it proudly had "Orient" in its name. SEA has supported UA and NW (now DL) all these years, so its not surprising to see both airlines keeping these routes around as Asian economies continue to prosper and grow.

Quoting LHCVG (Thread starter):
Or does Tokyo, for instance just have that much demand that they can fill as many seats as they can allocate to SEA-NRT service?

Keep in mind that NRT is a full-fledged DL hub (a gateway to all of East and Southeast Asia as well as Guam) and a major transit point for UA as well (pax can connect onwards to ICN/TPE/BKK/SIN on UA itself or take one of the many NH/UA codeshare flights). I'm sure more than a handful of folks on the DL and UA SEA-NRT flights are not going to Tokyo but to various destinations throughout Asia.

That said, it is interesting that neither JL nor NH serve SEA. Since many Japanese travelers tend to only take the national airlines, most of the SEA-NRT traffic must be 1) coming from the U.S. and/or 2) other Asian nationals connecting through Japan en route to Korea, China, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, etc.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
Largest SEA international market, no surprise is Canada which generated 900,000 O&D air trips in 2007.

True, but I bet many of those folks were ultimately connecting to Asia (via YVR) or Europe (via YYZ). The only flights to Canada are the regional flights to YYJ/YVR/YLW/YYC/YEG and then AC's daily YYZ flight which is often flown by the small E-190. Since very few Seattle folks would be flying to Vancouver or Victoria, I have to think the largest market for O&D folks would not actually be Canada. Since you have so many flights between SEA and YVR each day I can see how Canada eclipses other int'l markets, but virtually all of the pax on that sector are connecting beyond SEA and/or YVR. Flights to other Canadian markets are relatively infrequent and certainly rely on connecting traffic rather than Seattle's O&D.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
Key to any long term growth for SEA longhaul flying to Asia would be to garner feed as I don't see the city supporting much more on its own, especialy with continued existing leakage to YVR.

With AS continuing to expand its network to the Midwest, South, and East Coast (STL being the latest addition) I think SEA's feed is just about as good as its ever been!

Quoting rwSEA (Reply 3):
I think there's still potential for a couple of additional destinations, with NGO, HKG, and PVG leading the pack.

I think all three would do extremely well. NGO is dying to have a link restored to the U.S. West Coast and would probably give DL great incentives to start flying SEA-NGO. SEA-PVG would give DL a nice monopoly on a U.S.-China route with great future potential. SEA-HKG is probably the least likely, if only because NW was never very strong there (before the merger it was only served via NRT). Once DL establishes itself with the new DTW-HKG route, I bet they will strongly consider SEA-HKG and maybe even HNL-HKG, another route that is probably ripe for the picking.

Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 17):
Delta was doing 2 A330 flights SEA-NRT during the summer, then just 1 in the Winter, switching capacity between NRT and HNL from SEA. I looked recently for flights in October to NRT and it appears that there is one A330 with Delta and one 777 with United doing the route at that time. They look already pretty full.

Some times when Delta has 2 planes the plane is like 75% full, but when only 1 it is always jammed. I believe the UA plane is nearly always full.

Would have been interesting to see what would have happened if DL did get that SEA-HND authority!



Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
User currently offlinebobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6440 posts, RR: 9
Reply 20, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 2910 times:

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 19):
That said, it is interesting that neither JL nor NH serve SEA. Since many Japanese travelers tend to only take the national airlines, most of the SEA-NRT traffic must be 1) coming from the U.S. and/or 2) other Asian nationals connecting through Japan en route to Korea, China, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, etc.




Having been in the arrival areas of HNL, SEA, DTW, JFK and MSP for the arrival of NW flights from NRT, I can assure you that the flights are very heavily filled with Japan originating passengers. NW /DL has been flying from SEA to Japan longer than UA, CO, AA, JL, or NH.


User currently offlineWestern727 From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 740 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 2867 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7):
DTW - 1.0m
SEA - 0.8m

This is surprising. Being a Seattle native who spent 8 years in the midwest, I'm skeptical of that statistic though I don't doubt you, LAXintl. I remember longing for decent Thai/Japanese/etc. food and culture while in the midwest that I was able to enjoy while growing up in Seattle.

Unless that 1.0 million also accounts for Michigan's large Middle Eastern community? I apologize for my ignorance and give advance thanks for the clarification.



Jack @ AUS
User currently offlinenutsaboutplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 496 posts, RR: 8
Reply 22, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 2795 times:

Quoting Western727 (Reply 21):
This is surprising. Being a Seattle native who spent 8 years in the midwest, I'm skeptical of that statistic though I don't doubt you, LAXintl. I remember longing for decent Thai/Japanese/etc. food and culture while in the midwest that I was able to enjoy while growing up in Seattle.

Unless that 1.0 million also accounts for Michigan's large Middle Eastern community? I apologize for my ignorance and give advance thanks for the clarification.

I think the number includes all of the feed that NW put together for their flying to Asia which included NRT, PVG, NGO, PEK and for I while, I want to say KIX? But I'm not sure about that. All of these were served with a 744 and NRT was usually double daily except Sunday iirc.

I don't think a lot of people really realize just how big the Asia operation was out of DTW for NWA.



American Airlines, US Airways, Alaska Airlines, Northwest Airlines, America West Airlines, USAFR
User currently offlineWestern727 From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 740 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 2773 times:

Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 22):
I don't think a lot of people really realize just how big the Asia operation was out of DTW for NWA.

I see your point, but the numbers LAXintl posted are strictly O&D. I've always thought the large Japanese operation out of DTW was mostly a feeder for the East Coast, Midwest and the Southeast...and not for the O&D DTW market.



Jack @ AUS
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24786 posts, RR: 46
Reply 24, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 2748 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 13):
Do you have any data for the next 10 O&D markets to Asia?

Not without going and running the numbers, but as I recalls the next markets were LAS and BOS.

For the record in 2007 total US-Asia/Pacific O&D flow was 28.7mil, and the top 10 airports I listed generated a bit over 24mil of that, so traffic drops rather fast for the remainder of the country.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 19):
but I bet many of those folks were ultimately connecting to Asia (via YVR) or Europe (via YYZ).

Only if they purchases separate SEA-Canada tickets. If they were SEA-YVR-Asia they still would fall within the Asia/Pacific count. But who knows if fares are better ex-Canada maybe lots of people do buy separate tickets.

Quoting Western727 (Reply 21):
This is surprising. Being a Seattle native who spent 8 years in the midwest, I'm skeptical of that statistic though I don't doubt you, LAXintl. I remember longing for decent Thai/Japanese/etc. food and culture while in the midwest that I was able to enjoy while growing up in Seattle.

Unless that 1.0 million also accounts for Michigan's large Middle Eastern community? I apologize for my ignorance and give advance thanks for the clarification.

Well the numbers are what they are from US DOT, International Database YE.
As mentioned above it could also be that SEA numbers are under reported due to spill to YVR as people might opt to fly up, or even drive to catch wide selection of flights available there.

[Edited 2010-08-05 14:01:26]


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
25 Western727 : That does make sense. After all, from downtown Seattle it's only a 2-1/2 hour drive plus border time...and obviously less from the northern suburbs o
26 Post contains images nutsaboutplanes : You are correct, most of NW's traffic to Asia from DTW was connection traffic....missed the O and D part.....I see your point....maybe next time I sh
27 Viscount724 : Many thousands of Japanese fly on foreign carriers, especially in markets where there is no Japanese carrier service. I would bet that in almost all
28 Post contains images SSPhoenix : I bet with all the work and re-work going on with the 787 - there's bound to be enough Asia-Seattle traffic made up of engineers and project managers
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