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Will There Ever Be A New Global Alliance?  
User currently offlineLightbug From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 73 posts, RR: 0
Posted (4 years 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3352 times:

Maybe this has been discussed before, so moderators, feel free to delete or refer to previous threads. I just could not find or locate anything specific enough while searching the topic.

I am just wondering if there is room for another airline alliance in the global airline market right now. All the major ones seem to belong to one today with some exceptions, but I just read about US that may (have to) leave Star Alliance. Who would they join if that happened? Is it the CO/UA merger that could potentially have triggered this? And also, are there any major airlines that would be better served by leaving their existing alliance and teaming up with others to start their own or to be independent?

Also, Africa seems to be lacking in terms of being members of global air transportation alliances. I realize that South African is a member of Star Alliance as is Egyptair. There are several capable and well run airlines on this continent, and I just wonder why alliances have been so reluctant to team up with other African players (Kenya Airways & Ethiopian...both respectacle carriers).

Thanks for your input and interest.

14 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineahlfors From Canada, joined Oct 2000, 1347 posts, RR: 5
Reply 1, posted (4 years 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3339 times:

Kenya Airways is a member of Skyteam and Ethiopian is looking to join Star. There really aren't many big airlines left that aren't in an alliance. I mean what airline would the new alliance have in Europe?

User currently offlinethegreatRDU From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2310 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (4 years 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3328 times:

Emirates doesn't believe in alliances..but they could form a posse...


Our Returning Champion
User currently offlineLightbug From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 73 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3252 times:

Quoting ahlfors (Reply 1):
Kenya Airways is a member of Skyteam and Ethiopian is looking to join Star. There really aren't many big airlines left that aren't in an alliance. I mean what airline would the new alliance have in Europe?

I thought Kenya Airways was just a "junior" member (or associate member at this time). I am also thinking of several Asian or Middle-Eastern carries not in an alliance at all. Emirates comes to mind. Would they benefit from being in an alliance today? At the rate they are growing, they may not need strategic partners except for codeshare.

I realize that European and North American carriers have domineered the founding of alliances, so maybe no new takers there. But one of my questions is how every airline benefits. With mergers both in Europe and here in the US, these marriages have mostly been within alliances. Can't be an easy task to work out due to anti-trust considerations, and it may not be the best fit in the end either. I guess joining an alliance would fall outside of anti-trust legislation as opposed to mergers, so maybe there is no issue related to this at all.


User currently offlineByrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2358 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (4 years 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2984 times:

Their used to be talk on this board of an alliance of LCC's. I guess the lack of intercontinental LCC's makes any kind of alliance impossible.


The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
User currently offlinegoldorak From France, joined Sep 2006, 1841 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (4 years 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 2766 times:

Quoting Lightbug (Reply 3):
I thought Kenya Airways was just a "junior" member (or associate member at this time).

KQ joined Skyteam as an associate member but this status doesn't exist anymore and they are a full member now. But in any case, KQ belongs to AF-KL so you'll never see KQ in Star or oneworld.


User currently offlinerampart From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 3127 posts, RR: 6
Reply 6, posted (4 years 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2724 times:

I think it's conceivable that an airline could defect out of an existing alliance if a better opportunity arose. CO did. US probably should. And if major, they could form the core of a new alliance. Who says we have to limit to 3 alliances? The ones we have seem to have trememdous overlap: do I need 13 airlines in Europe, when a few well-placed ones will do? Does Star really need 3 large network airlines in the US?? That leaves some leftovers if the overlap is trimmed, and room for another alliance.

I could also see niche alliances. Virign and like airlines together. Leisure oriented airlines. Small independent regional airlines.

-Rampart


User currently offlineedichc From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (4 years 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2704 times:

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 4):
Their used to be talk on this board of an alliance of LCC's. I guess the lack of intercontinental LCC's makes any kind of alliance impossible.

Difficult but not impossible, there are the likes of EI and Air Asia X that could offer such an element to a LCC alliance.Didn't EI consider some of partnership with JetBlue at some point?


User currently offlineVC10er From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 2887 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (4 years 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2663 times:
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Perhaps some uber elegant, 6 star service network that just plane snobbery! It would/should cost more (like the 4 seasons)
Singapore, Emerates, Qatar, etc. Recently I checked first class on SQ to the USA then had to go to Richmond as a connection in the US. It was like checking into a 4 Season's but spending the last night at Marriott Courtyrard. Singapore doesn't fly to RIC.



The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
User currently offlineByrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2358 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (4 years 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2662 times:

Quoting edichc (Reply 7):
Difficult but not impossible, there are the likes of EI and Air Asia X that could offer such an element to a LCC alliance.Didn't EI consider some of partnership with JetBlue at some point?

Well, that's if you consider EI to be a LCC. I consider them more of a hybrid along the lines of US.

The problem with the LCC concept is that its hard to apply to long haul international travel. Stage length, increased catering, and fuel bring the costs of flying up to legacy levels when intercontinental flying is involved. At that point, why pay similiar prices and fly a no-frills airline?

Another issue is how do you mesh the WN model with a foreign carrier? Can WN provide a decent amount of feed to D7?



The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5464 posts, RR: 5
Reply 10, posted (4 years 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2627 times:

MH is not in an alliance so I guess any new one could get an all important SE Asian member

In Europe, though, it's difficult to know who's left. EI. OA?



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineA380US From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2358 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 2562 times:

Quoting ahlfors (Reply 1):
I mean what airline would the new alliance have in Europe

VS??



www.JandACosmetics.com
User currently offlineextspotter From United Kingdom, joined May 2007, 992 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (4 years 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2490 times:

Maybe when SQ sells its stake, but at the moment it is still very star-y, and as what was saide previously once an airline is alligned with a specific alliance, even if not a member it is rare for them to change sides again.


AF BE BY FR MV PD SZ U2 VZ DHC6, 8-3/4Q, 732/8, 763ER, A319, A380
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4395 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (4 years 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 2333 times:

I see the time coming nearer in which the number of alliances will go down to two by a merger of OW and Skyteam, there is no space foir a forth alliance.

User currently offlineSR4ever From Luxembourg, joined Mar 2010, 800 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (4 years 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 2258 times:

Quoting ahlfors (Reply 1):
I mean what airline would the new alliance have in Europe?

Good question...

Not too many european legacy airlines are left out of an alliance these says. FI, CY, some post-yugoslavian carrier, BG, Baltic carriers (as SK is pulling our of them).

Quoting rampart (Reply 6):
I think it's conceivable that an airline could defect out of an existing alliance if a better opportunity arose. CO did. US probably should.

Or CP, when absorbed by CA 10 yrs ago.

Leaving alliances does not go without conditions, though, and some can be rather onerous.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 10):
MH is not in an alliance so I guess any new one could get an all important SE Asian member

GA maybe? PR? BR? CI?

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 10):
EI.

Costs may excess the benfits for an airline such as EI.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 10):
OA?

OA is to join Star Alliance, post-merger with Aegean.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 13):
I see the time coming nearer in which the number of alliances will go down to two by a merger of OW and Skyteam, there is no space foir a forth alliance.

I don't think US Antitrust and EU Competition autorities would clear that, unless OW-Skyteam "expells" some of its overlapping members...


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