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Mergers Good For A380 In USA: Airbus  
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6863 posts, RR: 63
Posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 21987 times:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...a380s-prospects-in-usa-airbus.html

"with United and Continental merging, they could use anywhere between 10 and 20 A380s together - especially on transpacific services."

"Delta could also use the A380 across the Pacific primarily, but also on New York-London services."


Airbus sees 64 "superjumbos" in "North America" by 2028. (My God, I'll be 72!) That isn't a lot and Airbus agree: just 5% of projected sales.

232 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineJerseyFlyer From United Kingdom, joined May 2007, 634 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 21990 times:

The UA and NW 744s must be amongst the oldest flying, so will soon need replacement by something, 748s or 380s.

Where the mergers have led to consolidation of routes flown by one precursor previously with a 744, the A380 must make sense.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6863 posts, RR: 63
Reply 2, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 21941 times:

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 1):
The UA and NW 744s must be amongst the oldest flying, so will soon need replacement by something, 748s or 380s.

or 777-300ER...  


User currently offlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7048 posts, RR: 8
Reply 3, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 21888 times:

Well if the mergers are being done because consolidation is required and too much capacity exist in the US network how will that help the A380, one would expect that ultimately what the combined carrier will do is to reduce capacity, the bulk of their international feed is domestic and they cannot control the domestic market to a national degree. Will any US carrier operate A380's on international routes only with no domestic turns?

The main reason mergers have not yet reduced capacity to a level to allow massive increases in fares is because they have not yet found a way to remove competition by mergers. So you combine UA and CO, DL and NW, but until you can get rid of AA, US, WN, B6, AS etc. you cannot control capacity in the market place to any national level. The US domestic market is still a larger portion of US carriers product than their international arms and that market is still influencing the international market.


User currently offlineiliribdl From Germany, joined May 2007, 1205 posts, RR: 14
Reply 4, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 21818 times:

I've said it before, I see DL getting a few in next 5 years. Same with UA if the merger goes through. (and I think it will)


^ - my personal opinion.  



delta.com
User currently offlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3734 posts, RR: 11
Reply 5, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 21729 times:

...There's the small matter of convincing CO and DL to buy Airbus aircrafts...


Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6863 posts, RR: 63
Reply 6, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 21671 times:

Quoting francoflier (Reply 5):
...There's the small matter of convincing CO and DL to buy Airbus aircrafts...

CO and DL of old or the new versions thereof? Times change...


User currently offlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7048 posts, RR: 8
Reply 7, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 21588 times:

Quoting francoflier (Reply 5):
There's the small matter of convincing CO and DL to buy Airbus aircrafts...

Give them a big enough discount and they will buy, the idea that US carriers are "nationalistc" is not based on firm grounds. AA operated Airbus a/c, the combined DL/NW does also, when they sent A330's to storage over the xmas period they could have left them there if there really was an anti-Airbus bias, but when traffic picked up they bought them back versus 767's they had previously retired, what does that say?

Operating Airbus a/c is also a financial benefit to Airbus as they have to buy spares, update firmware, continued training, there are a lot of additional financial incentives which go beyond simply purchasing a/c. If the bias is there against buying Airbus it has to be financial, why support in other areas?


User currently offlineburnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7531 posts, RR: 8
Reply 8, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 21504 times:

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 1):
The UA and NW 744s must be amongst the oldest flying, so will soon need replacement by something, 748s or 380s.

Half the NW fleet is from 1998 or later. The oldest one is from 89, hardly that old for those frames.

Quoting iliribdl (Reply 4):
I've said it before, I see DL getting a few in next 5 years.

I doubt it, DL isn't interested in anything bigger than the 744, which they have said before, and were actually planning originally to get rid of the 744's. I would think at DL the replacement for the 744 is the 773 or whatever else comes a long in the next several years, the A380 is airport limited and not something I don't think any US carrier is interested in.



"Some People Just Know How To Fly"- Best slogan ever, RIP NW 1926-2009
User currently offlineSR4ever From Luxembourg, joined Mar 2010, 800 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 21490 times:

DL also took over quite many 313s ex-PA, in 1991/1992.

Some LHR-US routes could sustain a 380. Maybe some NRT-US routes, too.


User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1562 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 21270 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 2):
Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 1):
The UA and NW 744s must be amongst the oldest flying, so will soon need replacement by something, 748s or 380s.

or 777-300ER...

Wow PM, did this suggestion really originate frome you? I don't have to remind you that they have General Evil engines   

But you have a point. Airbus' motivation is that airlines can only grow at slot-restricted airports wit bigger airplanes. That's undoubtedly true, but it also is a fact that airlines from the US now send airplanes not bigger than 772's over the Atlantic - and often just 757's, 767's or A330's. So they can grow by using airplanes like A350-1000 or 77W (or whatever Boeing comes up with of that size).

I also must say that I see quite some optimism in their forecast, like delivering 819 superjumbo's between 2019 and 2028. 82 per year!    And that's on average, it would be quite an accomplishment if they can do that already by 2019...



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 11, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 21270 times:

It will be a very chilly day in the Hell region with snows forecast, the day any US airline buys an A380.

If it were the only +300 seat transport available anywhere under any circumstances, were built under license in Georgia by Northrop-Grumman and only used USA-made components throughout, and Airbus were giving them away for free they still wouldnt buy it.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlinerheinwaldner From Switzerland, joined Jan 2008, 2213 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 21219 times:

Quoting par13del (Reply 3):
Well if the mergers are being done because consolidation is required and too much capacity exist in the US network how will that help the A380

Do you think the overall capacity reduction will happen at the cost of the consolidated airlines? E.g. the new Delta will eventually shrink to the size of the old DL only having absorbed one competitor? Surely not! More likely the overall capacity reduction will happen at the cost of the less efficient smaller players. That leaves the merged airline with the need to steam the full combined capacity. Which may validate A380's. Unless a high frequency of long haul flights is more efficient.


User currently offlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7048 posts, RR: 8
Reply 13, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 21057 times:

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 12):
Do you think the overall capacity reduction will happen at the cost of the consolidated airlines?

No, but that seems to be what many people think, there is also the notion that too much capacity exist in the US market place due to Chpt.11 while overlooking one major fact, the folks investing in those failed airlines can just spend their funds setting up a new airline, so how do you eliminate the desire of the investors?

Any US carrier presently operating routes into Europe can use the A380, no question about that, where their problem resides is in determining how to utilize the a/c when it's not flying, most long haul routes require 3 a/c, having an a/c with the capabilities of the A380 sitting doing nothing as a back-up a/c is not efficient or economical. The domestic runs that these a/c can be scheduled on within the continential US is the limiting factor for the A380, 748-i, 747 and 77W.


User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4384 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 21057 times:

Quoting burnsie28 (Reply 8):
The oldest one is from 89, hardly that old for those frames.

Nevertheless time to think about what to order as replacement and get when this frame is 28 years old...

But I hear something shouting in the forest that he isn't afraid of it, it will be easier to sell another 50 A380 in Europe than 50 in the US.


User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17329 posts, RR: 46
Reply 15, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 21062 times:

Quoting PM (Thread starter):
"Delta could also use the A380 across the Pacific primarily, but also on New York-London services."

You gotta be kiddding. NYCLHR is a market that demands frequency, not volume. I'm not even convinced BA/VS will send them to JFK. DL hubs outside of JFK are unlikely to see any 380s period, let alone DL's.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6863 posts, RR: 63
Reply 16, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 20994 times:

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 10):
Wow PM, did this suggestion really originate frome you?

I didn't say I'd be happy if that happened but there's no gainsaying the wretched plane's success!  
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 15):
You gotta be kiddding.

I trust you are directing that comment at he who made the suggestion rather than your humble messenger.


User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17329 posts, RR: 46
Reply 17, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 20967 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 16):
I trust you are directing that comment at he who made the suggestion rather than your humble messenger.

Of course. I'd bet a dollar you won't see any A380s owned by any US carriers for at least a decade.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6863 posts, RR: 63
Reply 18, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 20935 times:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 17):
...for at least a decade

  

So, not 'never'?  


User currently offlineSR4ever From Luxembourg, joined Mar 2010, 800 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 20801 times:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 15):
You gotta be kiddding. NYCLHR is a market that demands frequency, not volume. I'm not even convinced BA/VS will send them to JFK. DL hubs outside of JFK are unlikely to see any 380s period, let alone DL's.

People will want more frequency on LHR-NYC, but congestion at LHR may require a freeze of frequency at a later stage, and thence an offer increase through bigger aircrafts.

In 10yrs' time, LHR will probably see *lots* of 380s in daily operation, from some near 20 different airlines (such as BA, VS, EK, EY, QR, IT, TG, MH, SQ, QF, CZ, KE, AI, 9W, CX, CA, MU, OZ, NH). Only DXB will do better, but primarily owing to EK monster orders and monster policy.

It would be very surprising not to see a DL or UA 380 in such 380 festival  


User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17329 posts, RR: 46
Reply 20, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 20672 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 18):
So, not 'never'?

"I'd say more like one out of a million."

"So you're telling me there's a chance... "

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 19):
It would be very surprising not to see a DL or UA 380 in such 380 festival

It's a long way from 757s and 767s to a 380



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineSR4ever From Luxembourg, joined Mar 2010, 800 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 20370 times:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 20):
Quoting SR4ever (Reply 19):
It would be very surprising not to see a DL or UA 380 in such 380 festival

It's a long way from 757s and 767s to a 380

The youngest 757 will be 15 years old in 2020. And I am talking about 753s, not 752s, which will be older in average.

767s, even recent ones, will also start showing their age.

788s will be needed at the very least.


If BA and VS fly 380s to the US with good loadings, they will probably enjoy lower unit costs than AA, UA and DL operating 757s and 767s.


User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3589 posts, RR: 10
Reply 22, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 20232 times:

Why would UA/CO or DL need A380s?

They have plenty of NRT slots, and they shold have no problem with needing more NRT slots as slots are freed up with new routes to Asia overflying the NRT hub.

There is no real slot problem at LHR since the JV agreements with the EU partners can allow for slots currently used for short haul EU flights can be reallocated for TATL flights.

DL has plenty of JFK slots being used for commuter flights that can be utilized for TATL/TPAC, and UA/CO has the same at EWR and ORD.

Any other slot controlled airports that would be likely candidates?

I just don't see the need.

Looks to me like marketing hype by an Airbus marketing executive.


User currently offlineboilerla From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 351 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 20213 times:

Quoting SR4ever (Reply 19):
It would be very surprising not to see a DL or UA 380 in such 380 festival  

I believe when UAL announced their widebody order, they specifically said the A350 would be replacing their 747s. It's a capacity reduction of about 5%, but UAL also has 25 options for 350s they can use if they feel the need to expand.
The new UA/CO might be more open to buying Airbus than CO was, but the new United will have orders for over 75 widebodies when the merger completes. That's a heck of a lot of widebodies. Granted, most are replacing 767s and 747s, but still.


User currently offlineMarcoPoloWorld From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 633 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 20141 times:

Although not necessarily a breakthrough, I think the supposition that "mergers are good for the A380 in USA" is a solid one. The flightglobal graph implies that Airbus thinks that the EIS for those frames (which may include 748s) will be largely in the next decade. But it is 60+ frames, however - a substanial potential order value.


Source: Flightglobal

I generally agree that DL and (the new) UA would be the candidates, and that LAX/JFK/SFO are the primary VLA gateways we are looking at here. Exciting times ahead indeed.


25 Post contains images SR4ever : NRT is indeed a longer way off than LHR. HND would be a different story, though. Assuming that European partner airlines are willing to do so, and th
26 astuteman : The two don't necessarily need to be mutually exclusive... If an airline is already offering, say, 3 - 4 x 772 and 2 x 744 daily between NYC and LHR,
27 AirlineEcon : If you look at how delta has changed it's NRT ops, the merger seems to have made it less likely they need the 380 for trans-pacific flights. We've see
28 GSPflyer : DL is much more likely to replace the 744s with 77W, or possibly 748. I think theres more of a chance of UA/CO ordering the A380 than DL, but still no
29 BlueFlyer : Who is going to buy 40 A380s in Africa?!? There aren't that many corrupt head-of-states to build 40 ACJs and I doubt SA would need them!
30 DLPMMM : Considering that DL got it's current slots at LHR on loan from KL/AF, the EU rules obviously don't prohibit such arrangements. Cutting a commuter fli
31 Post contains images MaverickM11 : Yes, and there are lots of those on order. Not so much 380s, by anyone other than EK. 2 for UU and 38 for....?
32 fcogafa : The Airbus predictions are always wildly in excess of Boeing's, and history has always shown Boeing's to be more realistic.
33 Post contains images BMI727 : Delta is just now refurbishing them, so don't count on those orders anytime soon. If he says never, he'll never get paid.
34 2707200X : I just don't see A380s joining any American airline, they just don't have the money or in many cases space at the airports. I think the trend is to go
35 EMBQA : Airbus is projecting 1100 more A380 sales in just the next 18 years....??? Shoot.. it took them 9 years just to break 200 in sales and that's still w
36 BMI727 : Well, there was the small matter of a global recession.
37 FRA-Runway : I completely disagree. The A380 has lower fuel costs per pax, and this advantage will be even much more significant, when the oil price will be back
38 EMBQA : That really has only been over the last 3 years.. not all of it covers the time period of the A380 sales... plus airlines project the future. Even th
39 Post contains images SR4ever : It may change, though. Circumventing the coordinator is not so welcome in Brussels. Agreed, but that implies that there will be a slot available at t
40 ER757 : On a recent trip to ORD, I was observing all the UA 744's coming and going and thought to myself that they'd have to have VLA of some sort in their fl
41 DfwRevolution : That may excuse 2008-2010. But since 2001, Boeing has sold approximately 600 777 and 850 787 while Airbus has sold approximately 700 A330s and 600 A3
42 Post contains images astuteman : No, they're not And two years before that, the programme was delayed, which unquestionably damaged sales.. Have a look at what has happened to 787 sa
43 XaraB : Since the 3rd LHR runway seems to be off the charts in the near future (20 yrs), the already near maxed-out LHR has to cope with air traffic growth wi
44 Post contains images par13del : If the buzz continues on the A380 I can see a US carrier purchasing a minimum number to operate a couple long hauls as a "novelty" item. Now to expla
45 avek00 : More to the point, USA legacy carriers don't have a need for the A380.
46 AADC10 : When placing the order for 50 787s and 50 A350s, UA said that the A350 will be replacing the 744s and 772s. Airlines have learned over the last few y
47 Post contains images 328JET : This is exactly what i wrote several times here. The US carriers will operate the A380, otherwise they will loose traffic to the competition AND produ
48 Post contains images SR4ever : Agreed, the troubled 380 production launch and the related knock-on effet had a desastrous impact on the image and the sales, particularly at a time
49 MaverickM11 : I really don't think there's a meaningful difference. It's a niche plane that few carriers need, outside the usual suspects. The plane has been on sa
50 gkirk : Can't see any US carriers operating WhaleJets.
51 Post contains images SR4ever : Certainly a niche aircraft, with not more than some 30 potential customers by 2020. There might be a bit more customers, such as smaller airlines nee
52 ScottB : It's easy to explain to the shareholders if the smaller aircraft (777's, 787's, A330's, A350's) are being filled at good yields and the airline is ma
53 328JET : @ MaverickM11 Few sales...? A very economic aircraft, that has more than 200 orders plus options from the blue chips of the blue chips...
54 BMI727 : I think a lot of airlines learned their lesson with that when the 747 showed up. Well, when you basically start and end the decade with a recession,
55 SR4ever : I agree with you on unit costs: they will be lower only if loading are high. But there is one more thing to take into account: with BA, VS, LH, AF op
56 ukoverlander : It seems to me there are a lot of A-netters with little American flags next to their names who may very well burst into tears and start pounding the f
57 Post contains images XaraB : As aircraft this big obviously has a much narrower market niche than a 300 seater, and cost a lot more, their orders will naturally be "a handful" of
58 SonomaFlyer : UA's 744 routes have generally flown full. From what folks on these boards have said, the yields are good. They will need to be replaced sooner rather
59 Boeing1970 : Fuel cost is irrelivant if you can't fill the seats in a 500 seat aircraft. A380 = too big for any US carrier, pre or post merger. Thsi is due to the
60 BMI727 : It would be cool to see more A380s over here, but the fact is that there are a lot of factors conspiring against it.
61 MaverickM11 : I'm sure it's a great plane but 200 orders in 10 years, especially when 80 of them are for EK, is a bit slow. It's certainly not helpful that the gen
62 Post contains images EPA001 : That may be, but the statement which Airbus has made holds some truth. The mergers are increasing the chances of new VLA's being purchased by US Airl
63 Viscount724 : But 234 orders and only 30 delivered to 5 customers 10 years after the A380 launch isn't very impressive. During the same 10 year period after the 74
64 Post contains images EPA001 : But there are also about 10 times more choices for (fairly) large, long range aircraft then there were when the B747-100 was introduced. That sort of
65 328JET : There are a lot of factors against the A380 for US airlines, but only on a.net... A merge results in fewer frequencies with bigger airplanes. I do not
66 FlyNWA727 : I'm by no means an aviation analyst expert, but from what I do know or have observed, if U.S. carriers aren't worried about losing out to the competi
67 328JET : I do not believe that US carriers learned their lessons, or how do you explain all the mergers the last years?
68 Boeing1970 : The fundamental structure of the merging carriers is not changing in terms of size to the positive; therefore, the chances are unchanged. They are no
69 328JET : @ Boeing1970 "...smaller, not larger aircraft" If this would really be true, all ordered US longrange aircrafts of the last years are a wrong choice..
70 BMI727 : No. It results in an overall drop in capacity. Whether this comes at the expense of frequency or size is another matter completely, but is most likel
71 FlyNWA727 : And yet the fact remains that NO U.S. operator has anything larger than a 77E/77L. From the 777-200 airframe, we have: the A346, 77W, 744, A380, and
72 Boeing1970 : Totally untrue. The trend has been for equivalent, incremental aircraft of 30-50 seats more or smaller aircraft. 747s have been replaced with 777s. 7
73 FlyNWA727 : Agreed. Pan Am probably never thought in a million years that they would have sealed their fate flying the queen of the skies. The 747 was—in many
74 328JET : @ Boeing1970 Sorry, but you should investigate a little more. A lot of aircrafts in the last two decades up to now were/will be replaced by bigger air
75 Post contains images WingedMigrator : The nice thing about US airlines is that their pencils are generally pretty sharp. Because of this, the decision to purchase the A380 (or not) will be
76 FlyNWA727 : You're not making much sense here. You seem to be playing a game of semantics and taking the words "equal sized aircraft" to their literal meaning. T
77 Post contains images SR4ever : 23 orders per annum for 10 years. Not a big fiasco, but could have been better. 9/11 SARS and then the mess at Airbus have had an adverse impact. 31
78 ikramerica : Good luck with that projection, Airbus. No US carrier has bought a VLA in 15 years and most have decided on 300 seaters for the future, but that doesn
79 Post contains links BMI727 : Or you could since you totally dismiss the number of planes involved. Many 772s also replaced older 747s. Had 747s, and then retired them. Also, the
80 Boeing1970 : When they were being replaced, the DC-10s had 287 or 298 seats depending on the variant and the 777's came with 278 seats. Americans DC-10s had 287 s
81 1337Delta764 : Except for the L-1011-500s, which had fewer seats than the 764ER. Also, part of the reason why the L-1011-1/250s had more seats than the 764ERs was d
82 web500sjc : How about all those CRJ's?
83 centrair : It seems funny to me to even think of the A380, let alone even the 748 making it into US fleets these days. If you take the European perspective on ai
84 BMI727 : Is it? SkyTeam departures, JFK-AMS DL80 767 15:50 KL0642 777 18:30 KL0644 777 20:00 851 seats Star Alliance departures, JFK-FRA LH401 747 16:00 SQ25
85 PM : There's quite a lot of Africa north of the Sahara...
86 Post contains images 328JET : You funny americans... I am really sure this discussion would be completely different if Boeing would have said they are in final negotiations for B74
87 Post contains images BMI727 : No. I don't expect any American carriers to order the 747-8I either for the exact same reasons. And as far as this thread goes, the title says it all
88 328JET : @BMI727 My sentence about the number of seats on board was a little bit longer than your quote. If you quote somebody, please do it completely. And my
89 FlyNWA727 : You must be talking about buying a ticket in an alcohol induced dream, because ou're beyond delusional if you think that United or ANY U.S. carrier w
90 FX1816 : ] First off it's US passengers that prefer the frequency, not the airlines. How exactly have they not learned their lesson by the mergers??? If anythi
91 328JET : @ FlyNWA727 I expect United to change their A350-order into a A380-order, because i believe the new United is leaning towards the B787 and B777NG plus
92 328JET : @FX1816 I was answering reply 66 about frequency. It was not my personal argument. I do not agree that either the carriers or the pax prefer frequenci
93 ERJ170 : Here's my 0.02cents worth.. No US Airline will order the A380. Even though there have been mergers, US carriers still have far more hubs than their ot
94 Post contains links and images BMI727 : Actually I quoted the entire sentence, but to humor you I will quote two sentences this time. And your idea is still flawed. The number of seats actu
95 BMI727 : He will be able to buy a UA A380 ticket much sooner than that probably. It will just be a Lufthansa or Singapore codeshare.
96 Post contains images 328JET : @ BMI727 Ok, i wrote "sentence" and meant "statement". Too early in the morning... I am sorry, that you still do not get my point about bigger and sma
97 Post contains images Boeing1970 : I for one would be laughing at them. You responded incorrectly to a statement from me. I systematically destroyed your argument. What? Probably a goo
98 BMI727 : As far as they are concerned, the 777 is smaller, but it is also more expensive to operate. They would either need to put proportionately more seats
99 328JET : @ Boeing1970 "CAPACITY and the right aircraft for that product" Now you got the point of this thread !!! Isn´t it a shame for you that Boeing cannot
100 BMI727 : Based on the lack of orders for the A380 in the US, I don't think it is an issue. If they won't buy the A380 from Airbus, or the 747-8 from Boeing, w
101 Boeing1970 : The point of the thread? You suggested US carriers need the A380 due to mergers. A complete logical fallacy.
102 1337Delta764 : A past example was when DL's 764ERs were in domestic configuration, they had a higher total number of seats than the 772ER. Now, with the 764ERs in i
103 328JET : @ Boeing1970 What did i say?!?! I said/wrote the same as Airbus salesmen: The mergers make it very likely that US carriers will order the A388.
104 FX1816 : Well since the US carriers are not tripping over themselves to order the A380 I don't think it matters much if Boeing were to build a larger plane. W
105 centrair : I don't quite understand why? Trans-continental? Flying from 10 points in the US to 1 point abroad (See DL USA-NRT) Trans-pacific from slot restricte
106 EMBQA : According to the graph in Post 24.. which is sourced from Airbus itself.. yes that is what they are forecasting. 1,316 Super Jumbos by 2028
107 328JET : @ FX1816 Why exactly? They merged because of severe financial problems, which they expect to solve only with a merge. But to get all benefits from mer
108 SSTsomeday : I would argue that the opposite may actually be true... Airlines who have ordered the 380 largely have only one or two international departure points
109 Max Q : As they do today UAL and the new UAL / CAL combined operation will always have a need for a VLA. The merged Carrier even more so. Airbus is correct in
110 web500sjc : except for being able to attract more high yielding passengers- if airline A has flights every hour on CRJs vs airline B, which has a flight at 6pm o
111 Airvan00 : Having lived in England I can well believe that the LHR will not be fixed in 20years. Someone on A-net said once that it will take 20 years to do the
112 FlyNWA727 : And that's precisely what so many A.netters seem to not be able to grasp. The U.S. aviation industry is unlike any other country for the most part. P
113 Boeing1970 : Reducing frequency reduces utilization of assets (Facilities and Equipment) and increases costs. Just ask Southwest who turns 9-10 tricks a day per g
114 BMI727 : I would agree, but even that may not be too likely. Another thing to account for is seasonality. This may be entirely perception, but it seems to me
115 CFBFrame : LH said the C-Series had better CASM than the A380 If it's even in the fleet!!! I know, right!!! That's not a business model, buy a few a/c for a nov
116 Centre : Or the slot limited HND
117 Post contains images astuteman : You're either a) very wrong, or b) the 787 is the poorest widebody on sale today. I'll leave you to choose It leaves you to wonder how many A380's mi
118 EMBQA : So what are they talking about then..?? Boeing has no intention on building them..no one else intends to design or build them....leaving only Airbus
119 PITingres : Maybe to get ALL benefits (and maybe not). But I guarantee you that what the US airlines were looking at was overhead structure, and NOT reducing fre
120 Post contains images astuteman : The 748i And if and when the 748i ceaes to be viable, you think Boeing won't have a 400+ seater plane in production 20 years from now? Rgds
121 Post contains links and images flood : A little unfortunate wording, perhaps, as they use the term "VLA" throughout the rest of their market forecast. edit: a little misleading, seems like
122 Post contains images astuteman : If you actually refer back to the Airbus 2009 GMF from which the Flightglobal article derives its information, it's abundantly clear what Airbus did,
123 BMI727 : They will certainly have some sort of 777NG or Y3. But like I said in the other thread regarding the 777NG, I expect at least half of those to be sol
124 sydaircargo : i think if UA wants to be competitive on routes like SYD-LAX or on other transpacific routes against SQ & KE they will have to go for the A380 . a
125 Antoniemey : The 747 is the original "Jumbo Jet". I would not call the 748 a "SuperJumbo" any more than I would call a 787 a "Jumbo" as the 748 is, for all intent
126 BMI727 : If you want to get technical, I think that the 747-8 is supposed to get the "super" suffix like the A380. But as far as airlines are concerned, the 7
127 Burkhard : so those routes that are operated by A333 now, good luck for the 788 against A333. Maybe your picture of Africa is a little black-white. Economical g
128 Post contains images PM : Interesting, isn't it? Threads I start are usually lucky to get a dozen replies. This is a novel experience for me! Er, you're half right...
129 BMI727 : Just like 767s have been losing money hand over fist on those routes since the A330 came around? Arik Air already has a letter of intent for 4+1 747-
130 Post contains images PM : Then that supports the idea that A & B can sell 12 VLAs in a decade. Just eight more to go!
131 SR4ever : To a certain extend, yes it is. There are no hourly departures all day round, even though some of those evening flights take off at short intervals.
132 avek00 : Don't hold your breath on either count, or else you may asphyxiate. Whenever they want. No, the mergers are actually decreasing the odds of A380/748I
133 GBan : Every flight has an origin and a destination. A big (or bigger) choice of gateways at the origin (US) might not be helping that much if the destinati
134 avek00 : Go to the current and likely future route maps. There are VERY FEW airports on Earth that are seriously slot-restricted for US legacy carriers, certa
135 mayor : This is my own theory, of course, but I think that all consolidation is doing for a/c sales in the US, for Airbus, is to reduce the number of potentia
136 Boeing1970 : Thats why you use a 777 on the slot and a 787 or A350 to avoid the slot airport. For example, lets say FRA is slot allocated. One option is to fly an
137 avek00 : Or, if feasible and/or necessary, US carriers will use a 757/767 to enter the new market. We can't forget that there is an upside for USA legacies in
138 pnwtraveler : You will notice that the flag beside my name isn't American. I know someone who works for the company that builds the landing gear for the A380's. I
139 Post contains images astuteman : Which IS the term Airbus use in their GMF.... I believe it was Flightglobal that have coined the generic "Superjumbo" in this instance.... Which woul
140 ikramerica : What's farfetched is a doubling in A380 deliveries from 2019 compared to so far.
141 Post contains images astuteman : You don't think that Airbus can double what has been effectively a delivery rate of bugger all, in the next 10 years? I fail to understand why Airbus
142 avek00 : Exactly. UA and DL will have access to A380 capacity on the few USA longhaul routes that can justify them on account of the JVs. There really is no n
143 SR4ever : You mean new US-LHR flights, from other US gateways?
144 Post contains images DocLightning : In fact, just before the merger, UA did order a 744 replacement. The replacement is the A359 and the 787. NW also billed the 787 as their 744 replace
145 avek00 : I meant either add LHR frequencies from existing USA gateways, or, yes, restore/add more USA gateways to London Heathrow. For instance, in thinking a
146 avek00 : Indeed, this is the reason why many of the carriers some here have "pre-ordained" to be A380 customers -- such as Cathay Pacific -- have said thanks
147 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : What??? I can't if you are being sarcastic, irrational, or just stirring the pot. The New United: Airbus in fleet The New Delta: Airbus in fleet The
148 Post contains images keesje : Yes, I think think we see a lack of orders in the US for the A380. .. and the 747, 787, 777, A350, A330 and .. [Edited 2010-08-11 15:20:42]
149 328JET : @Boeing1970 That is not so simple as it looks like. DUS, MUC and TXL have nightclosures and are also Slot-airports due big demand. DUS and TXL have vi
150 yellowtail : There are probably only a handful of routes from the USA that could really use the 380. ATL/MIA-GRU and EWR-TLV come to mind. Domestically, IAH-LAX co
151 ScottB : TXL will be replaced shortly by the enlarged SXF, which does not have the same capacity constraints. MUC is likely to see very little additional serv
152 BMI727 : That is another factor. People sometimes talk about larger planes as though they are the only option at a slot controlled airport, though that isn't
153 keesje : I think Detroit, Los Angeles, San Fransisco, Chicago, New York and Seattle to Tokyo, Hong Kong, Being, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Melbourne, Sydney, Bangko
154 Boeing1970 : Uh. No. DUS has plenty of capacity left, even with the silly agreement with the neighbors. 17 million pax from a twin runway airport with 107 parking
155 328JET : DUS is closed between 2200lt and 0600lt - LGW is not. LGW has a much higher utilization of widebodies in comparison to DUS and that is the trick for 3
156 Antoniemey : Umm... no, both of these have had significant orders from at least one North American airline.
157 Viscount724 : Not correct. UA and NW both ordered 744s several years after the 772ER was available. UA took dlelivery of their last 13 744s between 1998 and 2001.
158 Post contains links Boeing1970 : They have a night quota. http://www.boeing.com/commercial/noise/gatwick.html Never mind they handle double the passengers. Do you really think Gatwic
159 Post contains images DLPMMM : I just love it!! First he says this: Then in the same post he says this: Let me get this straight...In Germany it is "the only way to go" for USA airl
160 Post contains images ER757 : Not from SEA to anyplace, sorry to say Much as I would love to see an A380 in my backyard, it's Not. Going. To. Happen. Not enough traffic to any sin
161 SR4ever : Forget about substantial and endless frequency increases at LHR. This decade is gonna be primarily a decade of upgauges there. And the next decade mi
162 328JET : I made a small typo: DUS and TXL: 0000lt-0600lt and not 2200lt-0600lt. MUC has the same closure. In germany nearly all important airports are closed d
163 328JET : @ DLPMMM Logic is not your first name, isn´t it...? This thread is about a big aircraft - the A380 as you might have realized. My conclusion was that
164 PlanesNTrains : CO - 787 DL - 787 DL - 777 UA - 787 UA - 350 AA - 787 US - 350 330? Quite a few at DL and US. 747? True - none interested 380? True - none interested
165 Post contains links and images Bogi : Hello in to this World! What they think about the Opinion? http://a.yfrog.com/img823/8158/airbusa380sheisthedream.jpg Is the A380 more Dreamliner than
166 PlanesNTrains : For Emirates? Yes. What's your point? -Dave
167 Boeing1970 : Thats a big typo. Equating to about 40,000 ops a year per airport. Your conclusion was that US mergers meant A-380s for US carriers.
168 328JET : @Boeing1970 So what? The airports are already operating at their limits. My wrong times doesn´t change that problem. And yes, my conclusion was and s
169 PlanesNTrains : US? A380? Nothing like shooting your credibility in the foot. Let's see what happens with the two dozen Airbus widebodies that they have on order fir
170 keesje : Low numbers of ordered aircraft, in relation to their fleets, marketsize and rest of the world.. P.S. did AA order 787s?
171 FlyNWA727 : I agree. Whatever small credibility he might have had, was completely and utterly lost when he actually lumped US Airways, into the mix of potential
172 BMI727 : I think they signed a MOU for 42 787-9s. The biggest hurdle to firming the order is negotiations with their pilot union. I wouldn't say infinitesimal
173 PlanesNTrains : Ok, so "lack of orders" means "low numbers ... in relation...". Fine. It's still many dozens of widebody aircraft on order. I fail to see a compellin
174 Post contains images par13del : An important point in what seems to be an A versus B battle. One of the best selling widebody a/c in the last decade has been the 77W, it is made by
175 keesje : I'm not sure if the US is a good market for the A380. Fact is A380s from a dozen airlines will flood the USA within a couple of years, regardless of
176 Post contains images par13del : I do not think that is the issue being "discussed" on this thread, you are talking about foreign carriers operating A380's into the US, no one disput
177 rwSEA : UA has already said that the A350 will replace the 744.
178 MBJ2000 : I think what keesje is trying to say is, that maybe at some point DL, UA will have to react to the foreign A380 "invasion" ...by buying similar sized
179 par13del : I agree that is the whole point of the thread and so far most of the responses have given valid reasons as to why it won't happen, the primary being
180 PM : They also said they would not split their widebody order. But they did. Moreover the A350 for 747 plan was pre-merger. The sands are shifting...
181 Post contains images par13del : The big difference would be if any money has already changed hands, that does put a crimp in one ability to change one's mind for free
182 avek00 : Well, post-merger Delta has expanded TATL flying from non-hub airports, and I expect New United to follow. What foreign A380 invasion? A few current
183 Boeing1970 : Never going to happen. Ever. DL will order 777-300ERs to replace the 747's. UA will order A-350-900s or -1000's to replace theirs. US may not even ex
184 Post contains images SR4ever : Which routes please, if I may ask?
185 Post contains links DLPMMM : If FRA is operating at it's limits and busting at the seams, then why is the FRA airport operator Fraport trying to lure Air Berlin to focus more ope
186 Boeing1970 : Never mind the runway under construction and the planned terminal.....The runway alone will increase throughput by about 35%... This guy is all over
187 keesje : No airline in the world operates the A380 domestic. It's made for >5000NM flights with 450-700 seats. Few A380 flights are O&D. All A380 fligh
188 YULWinterSkies : Well, considering the whopping number of airplanes larger than the 777-200 that have been introduced in the US within the last decade (ZERO), i'd say
189 Boeing1970 : Which US airlines are those Keesje? Because its no longer a booming market.
190 avek00 : Well, AF, BA, KE and LH will all be working in conjunction with immunized USA-based carriers in bringing the A380 to North America, so I don't see th
191 par13del : If US airlines purchase them and 3 a/c are required for flights of those distances what do you suggest they do with the back up a/c? Did I say anythi
192 Post contains links keesje : The US airline United Airlines, Boeing1970. http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/08/1...ish-airways-cathay-and-united.html
193 FX1816 : You may want to check your sources on 744's being pulled from the desert. We have dozen's of them out here at VCV and continue to add to our collecti
194 BMI727 : The article said they were recalling one plane. And, while bringing 747s back from the desert is undoubtedly a positive sign, it is still a big jump
195 Post contains images astuteman : Emirates isn't helped by not getting its A380's anywhere near as quickly as it wants them... It wouldn't surprise me to see in about 5 years time tha
196 Boeing1970 : 1 airplane is a far cry from... What did you say: One airplane. LOL is right. Your commentary generates much laughter. PM yourself. Maybe you'll laug
197 328JET : @ Boeing1970 You are a comedian with no knowledge about the german market. Always funny to read your statements.
198 BMI727 : Perhaps you could make your argument better using actual data, rather than just telling him that he's wrong without any evidence.
199 Post contains images DLPMMM : So USA airlines should order A380s to serve FRA immediately because FRA has a short term capacity problem! And this when Airbus has no delivery slots
200 328JET : @ BMI727 I agree with you. @ Boeing1970 I did not want to be rude. FRA has a capacity problem in the moment. That is the reason for the 4th runway the
201 ER757 : I'd be very surprised if China Southern, Thai, Malaysia, Qatar or Etihad flew the A380 to USA destinations. And if any of them do, it would be to may
202 PlanesNTrains : Well, since we're discussing US carriers buying A380's, I think we're a ways away from a panic over delivery slots. Again, it may happen at some poin
203 Post contains images babybus : Yawn To save the planet, and stop making a mockery of all those green taxes and Earth summits, more airlines need to operate larger aircraft on more
204 Post contains images par13del : Or we could simply go back to boats, the sea does recover much quicker and takes longer to affect other nations than the air no? I think that's the p
205 Post contains images SR4ever : PIT-CDG would be better done by AF, as dispersing a longhaul fleet to non-hub airports always has its costs. Conversely, having that route operated b
206 Burkhard : The current capacity problems will be solved earlier than we can expect the first 748i to arrive. If any airline orders an A380 now, this will be del
207 keesje : Didn't you notice? it's Transpacific, 6-8% per year. That means selling an addition 25-30 seats per year every year on your 747, for the next 20 year
208 avek00 : I hugely disagree on this one. Air France equipment is almost certainly too large for the route - Delta is using a ~175 seat 757 as opposed to the ~2
209 SR4ever : There is some difference in capaciy, but it's not that huge. 332s could work, as one of the airports is a major skyteam hub. And again, 752s won't la
210 avek00 : You jest, right? The AF A332 has more than double the premium cabin capacity of the DL 752 (40 vs. 16), in addition to ~20 more seats in economy. To
211 keesje : For the European hubs (AMS, LHR, CDG, MAD and FRA) their 120 minutes backyard is the 500 million Europeans. They fill up that long haul VLA. Carefull
212 GBan : This sounds a bit like business decisions based on trial and error, doesn't it? Assuming you are right, in the future the US carriers will be flying
213 pnwtraveler : I find it hilarious that a member from Europe told a US member that they should stop making statements about the German market because they have no id
214 ScottB : It may well be easier to fill 200 seats from STR if you're only competing with one or two other carriers (or even hold a monopoly) in transatlantic f
215 Post contains images par13del : At the end of it all they do sound similiar don't they? There is potential there for the Open Skies agreement to get off track like the last Bermuda
216 Boeing1970 : This thread is about US Carriers and VLAs. So the total is, as I stated... 1 aircraft.
217 Antoniemey : There's nothing WRONG with the A380... although the front end looks like a fat, bald man... but technically the aircraft is perfectly sound and one o
218 BMI727 : It isn't huge, but in my mind, the 757 is unquestionably the better plane for that route at the moment. I have doubts that AF could hope to fill thei
219 SR4ever : Mind you, AF successfully managed to replace its 313s with 332s, while 313s in 3-class layout had something like 167 seats. 752s of DL are not so gre
220 par13del : Very true in Europe and most places in the world where centraliztion in major hubs was sometimes inevitable due to other forms of mass transit. Used
221 avek00 : Pretty much. To the extent VLAs are used year-round on TATL routes going forward, such flying will generally be done by the European legacies. Simila
222 PlanesNTrains : How many were for US carriers Keesje? I ask because, as you know, this thread is about US carriers and the A380. So they run airlines. Got it. You ki
223 Post contains images astuteman : This is the bit I don't ever get when it's phrased like this Who in their right minds thinks that BA will REPLACE 7 daily flights to NYC with 2 x A38
224 EPA001 : Indeed this is the item which is very often forgotten in this discussion. Many poster are under the assumption the A380 will terminate a part of the
225 par13del : Quite true, however a lot of the congestion is created by airline policies not really infrastructure limitations. Example, BA policy was premium traf
226 Post contains images SR4ever : There can indeed be a few good niches in Europe, but not too many, especially in TATL traffic. In the UK, MAN and GLA are the most obvious ones. EDI,
227 par13del : Yes makes you wonder, especially since they had to pay through their nose's to get minimum slots, that price alone means they have to be used wisely
228 ScottB : New 757's were still being delivered after 2000, and many of the 752's being used on transatlantic routes today are among the newest. U.S. carriers d
229 FX1816 : Sorry to burst your bubble but only ONE passenger 744 has left VCV recently but yes we have had a few cargo ones leave too. BINGO!!!! Some of the CX
230 Post contains images EPA001 : First I wrote that taking away frequencies does not have to be the case if larger aircraft take over from smaller aircraft. And this larger aircraft
231 Cubsrule : Even if that's true, on how many routes does it help the case for the 380? There aren't that many long haul routes that have more than 2 daily flight
232 BMI727 : I don't think that we can ignore a trend that has been a couple decades in the making. Especially year round.
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