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CO (CO/UA) EWR-VCE?  
User currently offlineMatt777 From Cayman Islands, joined Oct 2001, 503 posts, RR: 6
Posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 5879 times:

What is the possibility of Continental (now United) starting a flight from Newark to Venice, Italy on Summer 2011?

Some issues/thoughts:
+ EWR-VCE will complement and enhance the EWR-MXP and EWR-FCO products. Most tourists like to arrive at one italian airport, tour the country and depart from anotherone. (eg. Arrive from the US in Venice, go by train to Florence, go by train to Rome and Depart from Rome to the US)
+ EWR-VCE will compete face-to-face with Delta's JFK-VCE.
+ The Venice catchment area (Verona to Trieste) has a big StarAlliance frequent flier base because of years of Lufthansa's leadership against poor Alitalia Skyteam service that is helpfull to compete against Delta.
There are many StarAlliance flights to other european destinations
Athens (Aegean), Vienna (Austrian - Tyrolean), Frankfurt (Lufthansa), Munich (Lufhansa - Air Dolomiti), Düsseldorf (Lufthansa - CityLine), Copenhagen (SAS), Barcelona (Spanair), Málaga (Spanair), Zürich (Swiss), Lisbon (TAP).
+ Demand during summer is high (Delta operates 4x Atlanta 767-300ER and 7x 767-400ER and USAirways 5x 767-200ER) and largely dominated by Delta. Can be a place to attack their big marketshare there.
+ The USAirways product to Philadelphia is no doubt inferior to Delta's. CO/UA can better compete against them.
+ Aircraft utilization: the 767-200ER might be the best aircraft to start with. The merger with United will provide plenty of aircraft shuffle that will clear the way for new routes.
+ Opportunity cost of EWR-VCE is the opening of routes like EWR-IST that can make sense given the possibility of connections of partner Turkish (like the new EWR-CAI hub of Egyptair). Maybe VCE can be the next after IST. Or maybe summer 2012.

Any thoughts?

19 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineAVLAirlineFreq From United States of America, joined Jun 2008, 1009 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 5823 times:

Quoting Matt777 (Thread starter):
+ EWR-VCE will complement and enhance the EWR-MXP and EWR-FCO products. Most tourists like to arrive at one italian airport, tour the country and depart from anotherone. (eg. Arrive from the US in Venice, go by train to Florence, go by train to Rome and Depart from Rome to the US)

VCE also has a huge cruise ship terminal, and is a starting and/or ending point for quite a few Adriatic and Mediterranean cruises.


User currently offlineFlyingSicilian From Italy, joined Mar 2009, 1292 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 5571 times:

Well I wish they would! I use VCE often.


Ciao Windjet mi manchi
User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4217 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 5484 times:
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Quoting Matt777 (Thread starter):
What is the possibility of Continental (now United) starting a flight from Newark to Venice, Italy on Summer 2011?

Well, you've done your homework.

What aircraft do you think CO/UA should fly this route with?


User currently offlinecatiii From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 3029 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 5448 times:

Quoting Matt777 (Thread starter):
What is the possibility of Continental (now United) starting a flight from Newark to Venice, Italy on Summer 2011?

Just throwing this out there, but why not ORD? Or IAD? I wonder if there would be better feed to a flight through there once the merghed schedules are optimized.


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6696 posts, RR: 32
Reply 5, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 5384 times:

Quoting Matt777 (Thread starter):
Aircraft utilization: the 767-200ER might be the best aircraft to start with. The merger with United will provide plenty of aircraft shuffle that will clear the way for new routes.

And it might not; CO's 767-200ER aircraft are relatively premium-heavy, while this is a tourism-centric market.


User currently offlinekgaiflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4217 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 5223 times:
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Quoting ScottB (Reply 5):
And it might not; CO's 767-200ER aircraft are relatively premium-heavy, while this is a tourism-centric market.

Yes, and so are UA's 763ERs

So would the solution be a CO 764?


User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1900 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5091 times:

Quoting Matt777 (Thread starter):
+ The USAirways product to Philadelphia is no doubt inferior to Delta's. CO/UA can better compete against them.

VCE is a tourist destination. Price - not product - will dictate the airline that these travelers choose. The fact that CO/UA/DL have a better on board product is irrelevant if they can get a cheaper fare on US.

I am surprised at the amount of N/S commercial service to VCE. However, I would fully expect to see additional European routes added by CO/UA to secondary European cities such as Venice, Granada, Nice, etc.


User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5231 posts, RR: 25
Reply 8, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 4846 times:

Quoting EricR (Reply 7):
Price - not product - will dictate the airline that these travelers choose. The fact that CO/UA/DL have a better on board product is irrelevant if they can get a cheaper fare on US.

That's partly true. VCE is indeed a tourist destination, however there also tends to be a high-end component to that tourist traffic that is not often present when we're talking about tourist-heavy markets. So, it's not exactly all about price when it comes to VCE.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1900 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 4754 times:

Quoting OA412 (Reply 8):
Quoting EricR (Reply 7):
Price - not product - will dictate the airline that these travelers choose. The fact that CO/UA/DL have a better on board product is irrelevant if they can get a cheaper fare on US.

That's partly true. VCE is indeed a tourist destination, however there also tends to be a high-end component to that tourist traffic that is not often present when we're talking about tourist-heavy markets. So, it's not exactly all about price when it comes to VCE.

Absolutely....there are exceptions to every rule. The question here is whether this high end component to VCE is large enough to sway large portions of the total traffic to/from a certain carrier, thereby alternating the economic success of the route for a paricular airline. I do not believe this is this case with VCE.


User currently offlineCALPSAFltSkeds From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 2577 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 4652 times:

Since CO will not take delivery of additional widebodies until the 787-8 in 3Q2011 (let's hope), CO has no aircraft for expansion. However, depending on the UA merger, there may be some shifting of equipment after the merger is consummated (not sure of that date). VCE would join other potential destinations for consideration. I would think service would be from EWR and maybe with a UA 763ER or CO 764ER in peak season. Off-season (if flown) may be a 762ER.
There are a lot of potential routes and a routes peaked in the summer is probably less likely than a more stable year around market. I'm not sure if that applies to VCE.


User currently offlinefun2fly From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1024 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 4293 times:

New UA will have 1x MXP (might reinstated the former IAD>MXP) and 3.5x FCO (2x EWR, 1x IAD, .5x ORD) so it is feasible they could reallocate one a/c to VIE (especially if Perillo contract is still in play).I would think the long rumored (even posted on the VIE website) Vienna route would arrive prior to VCE, as well as IST.

The rumor is that CO/UA mixed fleet planning will commence in March//April 2011 schedule just in time for the TATL season and you can bet that new UA will be able to announce a few routes. New UA could even reconfigure the 26th 744 from UA if they need the capacity.

Additionally, Smisek said he's in talks with Boeing to get more 2012 788 deliveries (in additon to the 11 scheduled for 2011-2012).


User currently offlinecslusarc From Canada, joined May 2005, 838 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (3 years 10 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 4212 times:

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 11):
Additionally, Smisek said he's in talks with Boeing to get more 2012 788 deliveries (in additon to the 11 scheduled for 2011-2012).

I'd like to see UA/CO pick up some used 763ERs and 77Es off the second hand market too!



--cslusarc from YWG
User currently offlineLIPZ From Austria, joined Jun 2006, 1075 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 3327 times:

Quoting Matt777 (Thread starter):
Demand during summer is high (Delta operates 4x Atlanta 767-300ER and 7x 767-400ER and USAirways 5x 767-200ER) and largely dominated by Delta. Can be a place to attack their big marketshare there.

During the summer ATL is 5xw, PHL is daily.
Air Transat also flies to YYZ and YUL, 2 weekly flights.


User currently offlineMatt777 From Cayman Islands, joined Oct 2001, 503 posts, RR: 6
Reply 14, posted (3 years 10 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2886 times:

I believe that for a route to be successful you need to comply with the basic 4P's of marketing:
1) serve the right market (place).
2) frequent flier base (promotion).
3) with the right aircraft (product).
4) correct yields (price).

1) With regards to the issue of VCE being just a low-yield tourist destination, I agree partially, because it has a relevant incoming high-end tourism component and in addition has a big amount of outcoming business traffic (Northeast Italy is a very rich region). Apparently the demand is there and as it has been pointed out Delta flies during winter where tourism is very low.

2) Many of these businessmen from cities like Venice, Padova, Vicenza, Verona, Bologna, Treviso and Trieste are Lufthansa frequent fliers that use MUC or FRA hubs to the world.

3) With regards the right aircraft to operate that route let's look at how premium heavy configured the product is:
Delta's 763ER -> 219 (34/185) = 18.3% J class
Delta's 764ER -> 245 (39/206) = 18.9% J class
CO/UA 762ER -> 174 (25/149) = 16.7% J class
CO/UA 763ER -> 183 (6/26/71/80) = 21.2% F&C class
CO/UA 764ER -> 235 (35/200) = 17.5% J class
USAirways 762ER -> 204 (18/186) = 9.7% J class

I believe that using a conservative 762ER as a start is not that bad (using the 763ER I think is out of the question). Yes it is more premium-heavy than the US configuration but it is less than what DL uses. Capacity will added to the market with the -200 will be little also if flown in a 5 weekly basis for example during summer. Aircraft will be available with the merger due to aircraft synergies, optimization and future 787 deliveries.

4) It is true that it is more probable that IST and VIE will be opened first since they are StarAlliance hubs and have less seasonal variability giving higher yearly yields, but VCE is currently the ONLY destination in Europe that CO/UA does not fly where US does. Maybe they are waiting for US to pull out of that market (as they did with MXP) and then replace them. Anyway I think that they can use the EWR network to make the route work pretty well at least during summer even with the PHL flight in place.


User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1900 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (3 years 10 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2799 times:

Quoting Matt777 (Reply 14):
Apparently the demand is there and as it has been pointed out Delta flies during winter where tourism is very low.

How much of this is a function of their code share with AZ versus the fact that there is premium demand? I tend to think the reason why they are able to sustain the route year round has more to do with the code share.

Quoting Matt777 (Reply 14):
3) With regards the right aircraft to operate that route let's look at how premium heavy configured the product is:
Delta's 763ER -> 219 (34/185) = 18.3% J class
Delta's 764ER -> 245 (39/206) = 18.9% J class
CO/UA 762ER -> 174 (25/149) = 16.7% J class
CO/UA 763ER -> 183 (6/26/71/80) = 21.2% F&C class
CO/UA 764ER -> 235 (35/200) = 17.5% J class
USAirways 762ER -> 204 (18/186) = 9.7% J class

Due to the tourist heavy characteristics of this route, US has, IMO, the best mix of J & Y seats. DL & US have virtually the same number of Y seats. DL has 16 more J seats, but how many of these will be filled up with upgrades, FF's, non-revs. etc.?


User currently offlinechepos From Puerto Rico, joined Dec 2000, 6201 posts, RR: 11
Reply 16, posted (3 years 10 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 2709 times:

Comparing MXP to VCE is like comparing apples to oranges, for US MXP did not work as planned. Milan is mostly a business route, unlike other destinations in the US European route network it does not have a large amount of leisure passengers originating out of the US, additionally it was not a destination US was established in. US was catching leftover traffic that did not mind connecting through PHL, hence the flight was not a stellar performer.VCE on the other hand is a good seasonal performer which is why the route has been kept now for a number of years. Of the summer seasonal routes out of PHL BCN and VCE are the two that operate from April through October, I don't see US dropping the route in the near future. That being said, I see other European destinations being on the radar for the new UAL before VCE- VIE, IST, WAW -etc, etc, .
Regards,

Chepos

[Edited 2010-09-13 11:40:34]


Fly the Flag!!!!
User currently offline2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2538 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (3 years 10 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 2593 times:

Quoting EricR (Reply 7):
VCE is a tourist destination. Price - not product - will dictate the airline that these travelers choose.

If it's price CO is after in VCE, then CO better fly to TSF Treviso/Venice.



I'm not on CM's payroll.
User currently offlineGlobalCabotage From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 602 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (3 years 10 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 2392 times:

If not from EWR, I could see IAD and / or ORD working seasonally on a VCE route.

User currently offlineSchweigend From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 589 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (3 years 10 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 2212 times:

Quoting Matt777 (Reply 14):
3) With regards the right aircraft to operate that route let's look at how premium heavy configured the product is:
Delta's 763ER -> 219 (34/185) = 18.3% J class
Delta's 764ER -> 245 (39/206) = 18.9% J class
CO/UA 762ER -> 174 (25/149) = 16.7% J class
CO/UA 763ER -> 183 (6/26/71/80) = 21.2% F&C class
CO/UA 764ER -> 235 (35/200) = 17.5% J class
USAirways 762ER -> 204 (18/186) = 9.7% J class

I believe that using a conservative 762ER as a start is not that bad

CO/UA's 762s might work better on this route if they removed one five-seat row in J and added two 7-seat coach rows, giving them 20J / 163Y. Reducing further to 15J / 177Y could be unlikely but still an option for the new United and their 10 762s.

Maybe not daily EWR-VCE service, but perhaps 3-5/week?

Scottie

A side-note, off-topic:
Interesting that you show US's seat counts for the 762 -- US's birds have more seats than comparable CO models: US - 204 / CO - 173. With similar Coach seat pitch, the differential must come from up front. I'd think US's 762s have more overall seats because of six- rather than five-abreast J, less pitch, maybe smaller galleys and fewer lavs and closets?

UA/CO will have some deciding to do about how to configure their various 767s!


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