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Ryanair Back In The Market For A 300-plane Order  
User currently offlinejoost From Netherlands, joined Apr 2005, 3167 posts, RR: 4
Posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 19867 times:

Source: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0397bd26-babd-11df-b73d-00144feab49a.html

Apparantly, after negotiations with Boeing failed last year, Ryanair is back in the market for an order of 300 aircraft, either from Boeing or Airbus.

After negotiations were stopped last year, FR announced to pay out EUR 500M dividend to their shareholders, which will happen later this year. But for the period thereafter, FR seems to be back at their original growth plan. Apparantly they feel the market is there to continue growing aggressively.

According to the Dutch site http://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/news/?ID=36254 , Airbus has refused to negotiate, but these are of course the usual tactics.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Depending on the time frame, such an order *could* help launching a next generation of either the 737 or the 320. I don't expect FR to try their luck with the Chinese or Russian manufacturers, though.

56 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePH-BFA From Netherlands, joined Apr 2002, 562 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 19801 times:

I guess they have 'missed the boat' and they will probably kick themselves for not ordering the 737's last year.. As the order books of Boeing and Airbus have grown significantly since last year I can't imagine FR pulling of a deal of equal or better terms than the one they could have had last year.... Your thoughts?

PH-BFA


User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5504 posts, RR: 29
Reply 2, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 19797 times:

Orders and options for an A320NEO? It might be lower risk than a Y1 (given how the clean sheet programs have been going) and a better machine than a 737NEO. It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities.

I dont see FR ordering 300 737-800's when there are new options possible just around the corner. Perhaps a 737NEO, but I think the Airbus could potentially win on purchase cost/maintenance cost/fuel savings.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlineEA772LR From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2836 posts, RR: 10
Reply 3, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 19761 times:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 2):
I dont see FR ordering 300 737-800's when there are new options possible just around the corner. Perhaps a 737NEO, but I think the Airbus could potentially win on purchase cost/maintenance cost/fuel savings.

But these options aren't just around the corner. Just how quickly could Airbus actually push out A320NEOs, assuming they even fully commit to the program? I seriously doubt they'd be able to get the A320NEO out the door much earlier than 2015. Plus, all of the unknowns from launching the A320NEO as far as the leasing companies, resell of current A320s, etc. I wouldn't necessarily bet the A320NEO is a shoe-in.



We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5504 posts, RR: 29
Reply 4, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 19656 times:

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 3):
I wouldn't necessarily bet the A320NEO is a shoe-in.


I think the 320 is far from a shoe-in. I also think it is more compelling than in the past due to the option of the newer powerplants combined with what Boeing "may" be looking at with their own NEO variant.

Ryanair is, to me, a 737 operator. Period. I am not going to close my eyes to what might end up being a great move for them in switching to a re-powered Airbus, though. If anything, I could see Boeing launch a Y1 and also fill in the intermediate period with heavily-discounted 737's flying out the door to Ryanair. It would seem to meet the needs of both of them, particularly if Boeing were to start seeing softness in the orderbook in a few years were Airbus to re-engine and Boeing go clean sheet.

Just my opinion. Happy to be proven wrong.  Smile

-Dave

[Edited 2010-09-08 09:38:53]


Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlineEA772LR From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2836 posts, RR: 10
Reply 5, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 19491 times:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 4):
If anything, I could see Boeing launch a Y1 and also fill in the intermediate period with heavily-discounted 737's flying out the door to Ryanair. It would seem to meet the needs of both of them, particularly if Boeing were to start seeing softness in the orderbook in a few years were Airbus to re-engine and Boeing go clean sheet.

   Totally agree. I really hope Boeing goes the extra mile and creates a clean sheet. Maybe something like this:
http://www.aviationexplorer.com/boeing-797.jpg



We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5504 posts, RR: 29
Reply 6, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 19336 times:

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 5):
I really hope Boeing goes the extra mile and creates a clean sheet. Maybe something like this:

That would be a beautiful aircraft. I just wonder how much of a stepchange they are looking at with the Y1? 787 Reduced, or "Kermit and Fozzie" like we've seen on here before? And if they go with the former, will Airbus do an end-run with the latter?

Id be sitting on my hands a little bit myself, right now.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlinemorvious From Netherlands, joined Feb 2005, 707 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 19314 times:

These type of airliners are a customer for life when you listen to them, so it will be a nice one to have!

I Wonder how both manufacters will be playing this one, although my bet is still on Boeing.



have a good day, Stefan van Hierden
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19584 posts, RR: 58
Reply 8, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 19173 times:

Quoting joost (Thread starter):

Apparantly, after negotiations with Boeing failed last year, Ryanair is back in the market for an order of 300 aircraft, either from Boeing or Airbus.

IIRC, MOL and B had agreed on a contract down to the point of delivery dates. MOL wanted delivery dates that B could not provide without bumping other customers and B refused to do that. So MOL threw a hissy-fit and walked off the deal.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 2):
Orders and options for an A320NEO? It might be lower risk than a Y1 (given how the clean sheet programs have been going) and a better machine than a 737NEO. It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities.

It may be that MOL is saying "impress me" to the OEM's. 300 orders for a new model is a good way towards paying for its R&D.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 6):

That would be a beautiful aircraft. I just wonder how much of a stepchange they are looking at with the Y1? 787 Reduced, or "Kermit and Fozzie" like we've seen on here before? And if they go with the former, will Airbus do an end-run with the latter?

OK. Let's get one thing clear. Y1 will be a twin-engined narrowbody. It will involve a lot of CFRP and other fancy new materials. It might be made mostly out of CFRP. It will ALMOST certainly have underwing engines with some sexy technology (LEAP, GTF, etc.). There is a slight chance the engines would be rear-mounted, but I consider that a very small chance. It *may* or *may not* have all-electric architecture. It will have something cute on the wingtips. It will have a single aisle. It will have lovingly contoured ceiling panels and overhead bins that can hold entire aquariums and small cars, cute LED interior lighting, and probably the same low cabin pressure and high humidity of the newer birds. And we will all sit there inside of it for 6+hours from JFK to SFO after having had to disrobe and get probed, scanned, and inspected and then stand in long lines both outside and inside of the aircraft while the lady in 22F wrangles her wardrobe into an overhead bin. The seat pitch will be 31" and you will not be able to open your laptop. The airlines will not serve food unless you pay a whopping $9 for a thai chicken wrap you can buy landside for $3.99.

In other words, the passengers will not notice much difference with the new aircraft. Only people who actually care about such things will.

Can you tell I'm jaded?


User currently offlineshankly From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2000, 1541 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 18999 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 8):
Can you tell I'm jaded?

Still laughing Doc....even heard your sigh as you pressed the post button...spot on.

Of course with FR, those fancy bins will be fitted with a coin slots and the thai chicken wrap would be regarded as cuisine by the average FR pax



L1011 - P F M
User currently offlineBraybuddy From Ireland, joined Aug 2004, 5688 posts, RR: 32
Reply 10, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 18794 times:

Whatever they go for, don't forget you'll have the fantastic chance to pay a (substantial) premium and sit in that empty seat next to the captain . . .

User currently offlinepnwtraveler From Canada, joined Jun 2007, 2235 posts, RR: 12
Reply 11, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 18664 times:

Yes 300 aircraft, that have standup passenger spaces in the back, with people paying extra to be seated, with pay toilets (credit card or debit swipes to open the door), coin operated overhead bins if you bring anything on board with you, and optional flight attendant landing systems. Any other of the recent ideas missed? Maybe seating on the wing outside the aircraft will be the cheapest yet.   

Seriously, I could see an interim order to allow growth and replace the oldest aircraft. Later a follow on order for either Y1 or A320Neo.


User currently offlinePlaneAdmirer From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 563 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 18637 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 8):
Can you tell I'm jaded?

I hope you save that post and use it every time there is some non-sense speculation regarding Y1 or the 320NEO.

[Edited 2010-09-08 11:38:10]

User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5504 posts, RR: 29
Reply 13, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 18458 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 8):
OK. Let's get one thing clear.

Don't you SNAP at me!   (j/k)

So no Fozzie, huh? Fine.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2699 posts, RR: 25
Reply 14, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 18314 times:

Quote:
Ryanair Back In The Market For A 300-plane Order

Pheeew! The thread title really confused me. How could I only even think they would open again the A 300 final assembly line in Toulouse exclusively for Ryan Air...


User currently offlineflyglobal From Germany, joined Mar 2008, 577 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 18173 times:

While all should run smooth for Boeing, MOL has been and will be on the limit line for Boeing's discounts. So nothing more effective to negotiate for him.

Airbus will not want to to function as a can opener for MOL to get more discounts.

The only way for more options for MOL in my opinion would be that MOL will place a lets say 50 plane order at Bombardier, Airbus, Embraer for reasonable (typical) discounts and demonstrates his serious willing to go new ways.
A follow up 200-250 Plane order would then open the door at all manufacturers to go the extra mile for higher discounts or other parameters favourable for him.

regards

Flyglobal


User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5504 posts, RR: 29
Reply 16, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 18109 times:

Quoting flyglobal (Reply 15):
Airbus will not want to to function as a can opener for MOL to get more discounts.

They said the same thing to Frontier.   Of course, Frontier got serious, and so did Airbus.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlineEA772LR From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2836 posts, RR: 10
Reply 17, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 17795 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 8):
OK. Let's get one thing clear. Y1 will be a twin-engined narrowbody. It will involve a lot of CFRP and other fancy new materials. It might be made mostly out of CFRP. It will ALMOST certainly have underwing engines with some sexy technology (LEAP, GTF, etc.). There is a slight chance the engines would be rear-mounted, but I consider that a very small chance. It *may* or *may not* have all-electric architecture. It will have something cute on the wingtips. It will have a single aisle. It will have lovingly contoured ceiling panels and overhead bins that can hold entire aquariums and small cars, cute LED interior lighting, and probably the same low cabin pressure and high humidity of the newer birds. And we will all sit there inside of it for 6+hours from JFK to SFO after having had to disrobe and get probed, scanned, and inspected and then stand in long lines both outside and inside of the aircraft while the lady in 22F wrangles her wardrobe into an overhead bin. The seat pitch will be 31" and you will not be able to open your laptop. The airlines will not serve food unless you pay a whopping $9 for a thai chicken wrap you can buy landside for $3.99.

In other words, the passengers will not notice much difference with the new aircraft. Only people who actually care about such things will.

Can you tell I'm jaded?

   I'm still laughing about this, because I think this is spot on!   



We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
User currently offlineSandroMag From Portugal, joined Nov 2007, 42 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 17792 times:

Could be any chance of get a different smaller plane like a ERJ-195 and work with both types in FR Network?

User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15735 posts, RR: 27
Reply 19, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 17636 times:

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 3):
Just how quickly could Airbus actually push out A320NEOs, assuming they even fully commit to the program?

Most estimates I've seen put EIS around 2015. I have to admit that I'm a bit surprised that with all the leaked opinions on re-engining or not re-engining that Michael O'Leary who mouths off about anything and everything has not said his piece.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 6):
I just wonder how much of a stepchange they are looking at with the Y1? 787 Reduced,

If it is just a reduced 787, Boeing would be better off saving their money. They could have launched that years ago, but have been putting their customers off while they wait for something more. Maybe they have what they need, but simply shrinking a 787 isn't going to cut it.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 8):
It may be that MOL is saying "impress me" to the OEM's. 300 orders for a new model is a good way towards paying for its R&D.

If Boeing launched the Y1 tomorrow, I'd be willing to bet that AA and WN would place 100+ airframe orders within a few months.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 970 posts, RR: 51
Reply 20, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 17215 times:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 2):
I dont see FR ordering 300 737-800's when there are new options possible just around the corner. Perhaps a 737NEO, but I think the Airbus could potentially win on purchase cost/maintenance cost/fuel savings.

If either Y1 or a re-engined 737NG were to be launched, FR would certainly have the ability to convert their outstanding 737-800 orders into orders for the new aircraft. Airlines and OEMs do this all the time.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13018 posts, RR: 100
Reply 21, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 16783 times:
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Quoting joost (Thread starter):
Apparantly, after negotiations with Boeing failed last year, Ryanair is back in the market for an order of 300 aircraft, either from Boeing or Airbus.

Terms for FR would have been better last year. Airbus is having to increase production for *other* customers, so I doubt they'll discount as much as FR wants.

Quoting morvious (Reply 7):
These type of airliners are a customer for life when you listen to them, so it will be a nice one to have!

   FR? They like the 738, but they would dump the type tomorrow for the right deal on the A321RE. But only for a deal that allowed FR to dump the A321RE when Y1 comes out. Nothing against FR, they are a business and should negotiate what is best for them.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1576 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 16442 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 21):
Terms for FR would have been better last year. Airbus is having to increase production for *other* customers, so I doubt they'll discount as much as FR wants.

Almost certainly true, also Airbus COO John Leahy told O'Leary to take a hike last year, which has proabably damaged his bargaining position with both A&B.

Having said that an order for 300 aircraft could launch a new project for either A or B if they have the money and engineering resources but I don't think that either do at this point.



BV
User currently offlineFerroviarius From Norway, joined Mar 2007, 225 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 15590 times:

Good evening,

a)
might MOL be fed up with A and B so much that he would start his own High Speed Train company (good luck in battleing CGT and SNCF) ?


b)
might A and B wait for MOL to retire (and FR have a somewhat less MOLly CEO), change way of life (get a an out phased L1011 from the RAF and transform it into a private flying palace with SK inspired layout, built a green house covered villa including swimming pool and tennis court on Grønland a.s.o.) before negotiating with Ryan, again?


I really wonder.

Best,

Ferroviarius


User currently offlinejetfuel From Australia, joined Jan 2005, 2224 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 15513 times:

FR will end up buying last production runs of 738 and screwing Boeing again. MOL knows as the economy recovers he will have less and less chace of stealing some planes. He also doesnt want to keep planes more than 5-10 years as he knows the engineering costs dictate new planes are cheaper


Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
25 Post contains links motopolitico : In related news, Boeing has retained Antoine Dodson as their chief negotiator with MOL. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMtZfW2z9dw
26 Post contains links mariner : I don't remember Mr. Leahy telling MOL or Ryanair to take a hike. I do remember this: http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/gener...%20Boeing%20737%20Order%
27 DfwRevolution : Me thinks Boeing is a lot less desperate to sell 737NGs in 2010 than they were in 2002. Boeing won't make that kind of deal again, if they can help i
28 jetfuel : I totally agree and I think MOL is pissed he can't get Boeing to give him the 2002 buy one, get one free deal. I hope FR has to pay a fair price this
29 Post contains links joost : They have actually, and apparantly yesterday again: 8 Sep 2010: 2 Jun 2010: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/art...518/Airbus-keen-deal-Ryanair-.html
30 Post contains images DocLightning : Oh, but the best part is that in Boeing's publicity for the new airliner, it will show an attractive, well-made-up, woman reclining comfortably back
31 FlyingSicilian : Just WN and FR could mean 500-600 new airplane orders for a Boeing Y1 (I'd hazard AA and new CO/UA would order triple digits also). My engineering con
32 PlanesNTrains : Well, understand that I do not intend to mean it in the literal sense, but rather more a a general reference to a traditional configuration using 787
33 kaitak : Phew! I'm glad I'm not the only one that thought that! I was thinking about that myself; what's to stop FR being one of the launch customers for the
34 bestwestern : FRs dominance and profits will ensure that scenario doesn't happen. One aircraft that matches those CASM's is the Q400
35 panais : They could launch the CS500 with 165 seats which will have better economics and actually start getting it sooner than an A320NEO or a B737NG . That w
36 r2rho : On the one hand, I would expect FR to go for something tried & proven, not to take risks with a yet to be proven a/c. On the other hand, BBD is s
37 328JET : Hmmm, a new customer for the C919...?
38 Post contains images Baroque : Maybe if you put your quote through the MML (Much Maligned Leahy) version of Babelfish that is exactly what you will have? Just a thought. Many thing
39 Post contains images joost : I'm not too sure about that. At a seat count of 78 versus 189 of the 738, it's average operating costs should be 41% of the costs of operating the 73
40 Post contains images mariner : Never by me. He is one of the three people I would invite to have dinner with me at a table of four. mariner
41 joost : Could you name some? Looking at Ryanair's map, I don't see too many holes that could be filled with smaller aircraft.
42 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : What would this aircraft be capable of? Range? Well, apparently they might be looking at just that scenario. Who am I to judge? -Dave
43 Baroque : Forgot to mention, but the MML version of Babelfish is proprietary to a.net and is not available in New Zealand. Can we have mushroom soup for a firs
44 parapente : As I recall Ryanair don't keep their aircraft that long.Also from the various threads on the matter it seems that the concensus for the timing of the
45 bjorn14 : I think he is saying to Boeing "you didn't want my 200-plane order now I want 300 planes what are you going to do?" I find it hard to believe that MO
46 mariner : I don't think he is crazy at all. Or if he is, he is crazy like a fox. I think he is one of the most under-estimated brains in the airline business,
47 Post contains links panais : His brilliance is best summarised in a recent businessweek article. He is definitely a great humanity observer. At the heart of the O'Leary philosoph
48 Post contains images bjorn14 : I was gonna say "in a good kinda way" but then I knew I would get 200 posts calling me crazy. I've flown FR many times and I really don't find them a
49 Woof : I think that puts you in the category of 'snob'? I'm a reasonably typical FR passenger, in that for a 1-2 hour flight, a cost saving of at least 70%
50 Post contains links parapente : Cheaper - yes.Cheap - er No. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_37/b4194058004420.htm My brother flies Europe often.His personal rule was
51 Woof : There are 3 things wrong with that comparison: 1.) It assumes you are starting from the centre of London. There are businesses outside London too! 2.
52 joost : Here we go again. Indeed, there are plenty of possible travel routes where FR is not the cheapest overall option. You can't use them to fly to the US
53 Post contains images PGNCS : Doc: One of the best posts EVER! You are, of course, exactly right. The average passenger will still buy on price and won't ever see the inside of on
54 parapente : Quoting parapente (Reply 50): Here we go again. Indeed, there are plenty of possible travel routes where FR is not the cheapest overall option. You ca
55 tistpaa727 : I agree, if MOL was serious he'd go to another OEM and make an interim purchase with options for the boat load. But, he is not and will continue to w
56 Bennett123 : I recall that Easyjet was also all Boeing at one time. IMO this is all to play for. I see no prospect of this order waiting until 2015, (if it happens
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