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"EK Order For 90 A380 Not Enough"says Clark  
User currently offlinesolnabo From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 852 posts, RR: 2
Posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 33104 times:

.
According to Bloomberg:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...0-a380s-not-enough-clark-says.html

Yikes  Wow! How many more I wonder..

//Mike


Airbus SAS - Love them both
194 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMCIGuy From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1936 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 33055 times:

This could end up a disaster of epic proportions for both EK and Airbus, high risk at least.


Airliners.net Moderator Team
User currently offlineJBirdAV8r From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 4489 posts, RR: 21
Reply 2, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 33011 times:

The article seems to be much ado about nothing. Clark puts a BIG qualification on that statement by saying something about "the way things are going now." It's just hype. I'll believe it when I see more firm orders...but if I do, I'm afraid that:

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 1):
This could end up a disaster of epic proportions for both EK and Airbus, high risk at least.

That's where I'm leaning.



I got my head checked--by a jumbo jet
User currently offlinesolnabo From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 852 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 32910 times:

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 1):
This could end up a disaster of epic proportions for both EK and Airbus, high risk at least.

My thoughts too.

Where will this end, you can buy so much a/c in a carrier before it´ll burst?



Airbus SAS - Love them both
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7138 posts, RR: 13
Reply 4, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 32860 times:

Quoting JBirdAV8r (Reply 2):
The article seems to be much ado about nothing. Clark puts a BIG qualification on that statement by saying something about "the way things are going now." It's just hype. I'll believe it when I see more firm orders...but if I do, I'm afraid that:

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 1):
This could end up a disaster of epic proportions for both EK and Airbus, high risk at least.

That's where I'm leaning.

Why you say that? The Dubai economy is unassailable and will never have a downturn ever after they run out of oil money and start heaving taxes onto everything that is now free.  


User currently offlinewingman From Seychelles, joined May 1999, 2243 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 32818 times:

Here we go again. I said this in the last thread somewhat jokingly but it doesn't seem all that far-fetched for EK to simply negotiate exclusive rights to the 380 aircraft itself. They could guarantee a profitable run to Airbus of say 500 frames (e.g. through 2025) in exchange for aircraft exclusivity on the 388 from this point forward, allowing for deliveries of existing orders to other operators. Then demand development the 389 for full exclusivity. I bet Airbus would be sorely tempted by a guaranteed return on the aircraft and 100% standardization of current customization in the production process. And on the Airbus side they can enjoy the leverage of knowing that Clark's insatiable appetite for total domination can also be used against him. And for the EU what better than to know that 380 line jobs are safe and secure for another 15 years. I see a massive win/win brewing here.

On the negative side EK will force the EU will to make a choice between its national carriers and Airbus. I have to give the nod to Airbus.


User currently offlineMCIGuy From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1936 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 32753 times:

Quoting wingman (Reply 5):

...or, EK's business plan falls on it's face and the market is suddenly flooded with A380s'.  



Airliners.net Moderator Team
User currently offlinesolnabo From Sweden, joined Jan 2008, 852 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 32720 times:

.
If EK expand in this pace Dubai Airport are gonna be as big as Luxemburg

 Wow!   



Airbus SAS - Love them both
User currently offlineRL757PVD From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4663 posts, RR: 11
Reply 8, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 32517 times:

By the time they get that 90th A380 I'll probably be driving a car that gets 70+ MPG, so id be curious to see what their business plan shows....


Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17445 posts, RR: 46
Reply 9, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 32446 times:

Maybe this is a plan to get Airbus so indebted to EK that the EU has to open up their airports to EK?


E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlinenetjets21 From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 81 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 32437 times:

Quoting solnabo (Reply 3):
Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 1):
This could end up a disaster of epic proportions for both EK and Airbus, high risk at least.

My thoughts too.

Where will this end, you can buy so much a/c in a carrier before it´ll burst?

My thoughts exactly. I'm not very good with the whole airline economics, but that's generally how it goes isn't it?


User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1148 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 32366 times:

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 1):
This could end up a disaster of epic proportions for both EK and Airbus, high risk at least.

Quote:
The aircraft “are well spoken for and frankly, the way things are going for us at the moment, the 90 certainly won’t be enough,” President Tim Clark said today in a phone interview. “Demand for our services seems to be continuing to grow apace. We’re moving forward very robustly.”

All big ventures comes with risk.
At-least EK is successful so far, being the most profitable airline in the world.
I expect plenty of airlines in the Euro zone and the US to go belly up long before we see EK start losing money.


User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10008 posts, RR: 96
Reply 12, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 32284 times:
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Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 1):
This could end up a disaster of epic proportions for both EK and Airbus, high risk at least.


There are those that suggest that Airbus might make more money by cancelling every A380 order anyway....

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 9):
Maybe this is a plan to get Airbus so indebted to EK that the EU has to open up their airports to EK?

EK's current backlog of A380's is about 6% of Airbus's order book at list prices, and given that the sheer volume of orders almost guarantees that EK will have had higher than average discounts suggests that in reality, it could be 5% or less of current backlog.

To reiterate, most would suggest that in terms of cashflow and profitability, EK's remaining 80 A380's probably constitute a lot less than 5% of Airbus's backlog in each case........

Unless I got the message wrong somewhere...  

Rgds


User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12436 posts, RR: 37
Reply 13, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 32275 times:

One question that comes to my mind: how many A389 orders would Airbus need to commit to it? We know EK would like it; CX, VS and one or two others would, as well. Couldn't EK be persuaded to convert some of these orders (and however many more it wants to order) to A389s and launch it? After all, wwith that number of A380s on order, they will still be taking delivery of them by the end of the decade, by which time one would expect the 389 to be launched anyway.

User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8341 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 32254 times:
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Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 9):

Maybe this is a plan to get Airbus so indebted to EK that the EU has to open up their airports to EK?

Europeans will not let one foreign airline, no matter how big, stake their entire airline insdustry on how many airplanes that foreign airline orders from Airbus. Some EU countries are getting shady about Emirates after seeing how many flights they have to the UK & Australia.


User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10008 posts, RR: 96
Reply 15, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 32128 times:
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Quoting kaitak (Reply 13):
how many A389 orders would Airbus need to commit to it?

For what its worth they needed 50 orders to commit to the original from a clean sheet of paper.

How may orders did it take for Boeing to commit to the derivative 748?

Rgds


User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 32037 times:

Here we go again, every time EK orders A380s or talks about ordering A380s or is rumored to buy A380s, one-hundred people in this forum see them go down.

What EK wants to do with the planes has been explained very often. Connect Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and parts of the Americas through Dubai, which is in the middle of all that.

EK has 150 widebodies, can anybody tell me a carrier that has more? The new UA/CO "United" has 160, but a lot of them the rather small 767, plus they don't have a single A380 or 773.

Ek makes a billion dollars a year with their already huge and impressive fleet.

EK does not only need more than 90 A380s, they also need a bigger plane than that. The A380-900, because even the A388 will be to small for some places sooner or later, given that EK faces restriction, f.e. in Germany with only four destinations and 49 flights per week.

Quoting Chiad (Reply 11):
At-least EK is successful so far, being the most profitable airline in the world.
I expect plenty of airlines in the Euro zone and the US to go belly up long before we see EK start losing money.

EK will mainly make Indian, Asian, and European carrier suffer. The Indians are already in trouble. EK has 10 destinations in India, connecting them with dozens in Europe and the US. European carriers might be next. LH and BA have little hope with their 747s against EK's A380s and 77Ws. AF/KL has horrendous staff costs. They can't fight EK over the price and - IMHO - not over quality either.


User currently offlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12502 posts, RR: 46
Reply 17, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 32007 times:
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Quoting astuteman (Reply 12):
Unless I got the message wrong somewhere...

Dear Mr Astuteman,

Please stop using sense and logic in a thread about Emirates and the A380.

Signed,
The EK/A380 doubters*.

Some just cannot believe that an airline can be well-run, efficient and very proiftable. In the last 10 years, Emirates traffic has grown six-fold. They've just emerged from the GFC in great shape and hardly seem to have missed a beat. I do wonder if the nay-saying is nothing more than out and out jealousy? I also wonder what difference it would make if they had 90 748is on order?   

*I was going to use a stronger word, but thought I'd keep it polite!   



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineSR4ever From Luxembourg, joined Mar 2010, 800 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 31973 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 4):
Why you say that? The Dubai economy is unassailable and will never have a downturn ever after they run out of oil money and start heaving taxes onto everything that is now free.

Well, the trend towards "stealth tax" is already there: Salik Road Tolls, Residency Visas etc...

Quoting wingman (Reply 5):
On the negative side EK will force the EU will to make a choice between its national carriers and Airbus. I have to give the nod to Airbus.

Might not be as clear-cut as this.

Let's imagine that EK goes but, or at least faces big hurdles to further growth in Europe. On the one hand, that will indeed impact on the EK entries on Airbus order book. But on the other hand, you can be sure that European Majors, Indian and Far East carriers would claw back opportunities.

And in the end, it would translate into AF, BA, VS, LH, 9W, TG, MH, SQ, QF, CZ, and KE ordering more 380s.

And probably LX, AZ, KL, TK, AI, IT, MU, CA, OZ, JL, NH and NZ joining the club.

Quoting solnabo (Reply 7):
If EK expand in this pace Dubai Airport are gonna be as big as Luxemburg

I guess that the Emirate of Dubai is smaller than my country of residence.  

DXB is now surrounded with urban areas, and is quite close to the border to the Emirate of Sharjah. JXB will offer more room for growth, but I wonder which airlines are gonna fly passenger services there: EK or non-EK airlines?


User currently offlinefcogafa From United Kingdom, joined May 2008, 784 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 31944 times:

The article reads to me like a dig at Dubai airport capacity and maybe a hurry up call to the govt over the new airport which seems to be progressing very slowly.

User currently offlinedavid_itl From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2001, 7370 posts, RR: 14
Reply 20, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 31783 times:
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Quoting Chiad (Reply 11):
President Tim Clark said today in a phone interview. “Demand for our services seems to be continuing to grow apace. We’re moving forward very robustly.”

Just to back that up: just 9 days into the A380 operating one of 2 daily MAN services, at least 4 of he 18 flights that have had taken place have had in excess of 500 passengers on board; it's reported that today's inbound service had 515 passengers. And this is a very much a secondary market,

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 14):
Some EU countries are getting shady about Emirates after seeing how many flights they have to the UK & Australia.

If they have a problem with that, oh dear they must be frightened of competition. It would be interesting to know how many passengers EK is currently flying out o the European regional airprots against the numbers out of the "mainstream" airports and whether the EK operations have had any effect on that total.


User currently offlineEA772LR From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2836 posts, RR: 10
Reply 21, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 31680 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 17):
Some just cannot believe that an airline can be well-run, efficient and very proiftable. In the last 10 years, Emirates traffic has grown six-fold.

No but let's be fair and honest here. It's not crazy to wonder how EK will take all of the A380s. Notice I never said there's no way, but it's completely normal to believe that when we see an airline that says 90+ of the largest (by far) passenger jets in the world isn't enough, is being overly ambitious. Forget that they have so many 777s and A350s on order as well. I think it would be naive to just nod my head *yes* and assume this isn't overly ambitious for an airline. They can't sustain that growth forever. I'd really really love to see 90+ A380s for a mix of customers as opposed to just one, but 90+ A380s on your order books is better than none I suppose.  



We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
User currently onlinepylon101 From Russia, joined Feb 2008, 1518 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 31605 times:

This is a.net forum.
People here (most of them) hardly are able to grasp today's reality of aviation industry.
They don't even try to look out of the box - to see the years to come.
Being a global forum - it manages to be surprisingly conservative and provincial.

PLEASE NOTE: all said applies to me as much as to all a.netters  


User currently offlineMCO2BRS From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2007, 539 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 31599 times:

I don't know my airline history as much as I would like. Has there ever been an airline like EK before, with regard to expansion (past, present and projected), funding, facilities, quality of product etc...? Or is EK the first of its kind?

I'm a big fan of the A380, and the would like to see Airbus sell a lot more (regardless of carrier)... but I can't help but think that EK isn't invincible. Having said that though, I have to hand it to Mr Clark, he's got balls!

Cheers

MCO 2 BRS


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13018 posts, RR: 100
Reply 24, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 31503 times:
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Quoting JBirdAV8r (Reply 2):
The article seems to be much ado about nothing.

Yep. But it put EK's name in print. A good CEO generates free PR. Why pay for ads when it can be free?

Besides, how can EK fly even 90 from DXB (I know, some will replace others). While I've chuckled at many anti-EK arguments in the past, the reality is Dubai does *not* have the funds to complete JXB at this time.
From the OP link:
The pace of development at Dubai airport, which last year handled 41 million passengers to rank as the 17th-busiest hub in world, was one of the main obstacles to growth, Clark said.

But this article was also FUD. Notice how it is said: “A lot depends on what happens with the other Gulf carriers,” Lobbenberg said in a telephone interview. “If Dubai survives as the sole hub in the Gulf, then you could justify a more aggressive outlook.”

Who is Lobbenberg, an analyst with RBS, casting doubt on QR/EY? Does he have research online backing up his statement? (Sorry, I'm too tired to do a proper google, see my new signature.)

Quoting wingman (Reply 5):
I said this in the last thread somewhat jokingly but it doesn't seem all that far-fetched for EK to simply negotiate exclusive rights to the 380 aircraft itself.

I ended up rebutting this with a long post. Mea Culpa. But look into all the reasons this cannot happen. It is not in either EK's or Airbus' benefit.

Not allowed by contract. SQ, QF, LH, KE and others all hold options and purchase rights.

What about Airbus being a consortium? Seriously, how could Airbus secure government backed loans if they sidelined BA, VS, IB, LH, or AF? I'm not kidding. The political consequences would end it.

Also, having only *one* airline operate a type kills the political will to adapt airports to the A380. Right now India does not allow A380's in via bilateral. If AI/9W/IT were not allowed to buy whatever A380's they chose... no Indian airport would accept the A380. It would be that simple politically.

Also, look at the history of Boeing 247. By granting UA an exclusive for the first few years of production, it ensured sales of the DC-2 and laid the groundwork for the dominance of Douglas with the DC-3. Boeing lost KLM, TWA, and a few other customers by that stupid exclusive deal. Why would Airbus repeat that mistake? It took a propulsion technology change for Boeing to recover from that *one* mistake of aircraft exclusivity.

An EK exclusive for the A380 ensures great sales of the 748. Why would Airbus do that? EK likes to negotiate for aircraft. You do realize that EK would have to offer Airbus a profit margin far beyond what they could hope for otherwise? In other words, pay $50 to $70 million more per airframe for an exclusive by my estimate. $50 million/20,000 flight with 517 seats per flight is ~$4.80 per ticket. That would be nothing on CASM, but why would EK pay more.

And do not get me started on maintenance support if EK had an exclusive... With a lack of global maintenance support the freighter conversions cannot happen. (You need a decade of having hundreds of people 'crawl around' a frame to create the competing conversion packages.)

Or financing. Do you realize how *worthless* of collateral on a loan an exclusive airframe is? Its not even worth parts. It is beercan with interfering parts to be removed before being melted down.   

In other words, there won't be an exclusive on an Airbus or Boeing airframe. That would be too much of a gift to the competitor.

It would also tie Airbus' bond rating to EK. I hear rumors (via my engine contacts) of new orders in work.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
25 oneworld77 : Huh? are you being sarcastic? I already get 70mpg. Were you being funny?
26 Post contains images Centre : Not much was said about EK when they ordered more 77Ws recently, and "everyone" was happy for it. and some were suggesting that EK will order close to
27 Centre : Congratulations on the New Addition, and wish you all the best.
28 oneworld77 : Best? By what measure?
29 FlyNWA727 : It's really not without justification that there are so many naysayers on A.net when it comes to Emirate's insatiable aircraft ordering appetite. Whil
30 Centre : There is no need for exclusivity agreement... With the latest order by EK, the production is already sold out well into 2015-17. By DL fanboys.
31 mariner : It didn't help that Pan Am became one of the worst run airlines in the world. I still remember the last flight I took with them - SYD-LAX first class
32 FlyNWA727 : That's why I stated "It was the beginning of the end". PA suffered for mismanagement, terrorist attacks, and a slew of other issues. But PA's decisio
33 Post contains images EPA001 : But seriously, so far this is not another order for the next batch of A380's. But with this signal they might be opening the door in Airbus putting t
34 mariner : This thread isn't about Pan Am, but I would suggest that the financial management of Pan Am had been inept for some time, long before it became appar
35 Slinky09 : ANet is full of people who want EK to fail and AB to fail. It's your want ... it's not without a large dose of nationalism either. Most of you probabl
36 MaverickM11 : Some might call that a red flag when many other well run airlines can barely handle a dozen 380s, if any at all. And considering EK is essentially an
37 alasdair1982 : Just a thought regarding the passenger numbers going up. As far as serving GLA is concerned, would EK ever invest in infrastructure upgrades to fit i
38 Post contains links and images Thorben : Somewhat, but not completely. They are still from a smaller country and they are Arabs. Besides, even I would prefer 20 747-8Is and 70 A388s over 90
39 uaeflyer : Whenever there is a topic that discuss Emirates i enjoy reading all the comments and replies. Some are very realistic and they accept that EK is a suc
40 CharlieNoble : How much of Emirates' traffic actually consists of people going to Dubai? Looking at the globe I think that their strategic location makes them a grea
41 faro : You can be extremely successful and rationally plan for more success down the line, but there is a limit to that, it's called time. No-one can predict
42 AirNZ : Except of course you again 'forget' (read ignore facts) that Dubai is not dependent/built on oil revenues. And? Do you not realise that here's nothin
43 SR4ever : Agreed. But that implies first that EK be able to sustain the same growth path while offering the same quality and consistency in their product, whic
44 mariner : I'm not going to copy and paste the long list of negatives you've dredged up, but do you really believe that a management as smart as Emirates has sh
45 jfk777 : Pan AM had about 50 747 in 1980, they may have operated 80 different 747 but not 80 at the same time. Juan Trippe had a benefactor in Jock Whitney wh
46 mariner : That may be, I don't know. I do know that many politicians are no strangers to arrogance. LOL. The greater issue seems to me to be as I described in
47 GlobalCabotage : Where is EK going to land all this metal? I guess this opens up RJ cities in the US for direct service to DXB!
48 Post contains links and images lightsaber : JXB won't be *that* big. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Maktoum_International_Airport Last I heard, it will only be five runways. 'only' & A380'
49 cpd : It's quite obvious what they plan to do with these A380s. It's just a matter of how many countries will allow them to get away with this plan. Use the
50 MaverickM11 : OK, two dozen then, but 90? If something looks too good to be true.... Which were part of the whole smoke 'n mirrors production to make DXB a destina
51 cosmofly : EK has been successful with a boat load of 777s. Will that translate automatically to a sound business plan using a boat load of A380s? It is becoming
52 francoflier : I think that if that need for more superjumbo capacity did materialize, it would be wise for Airbus to try and push the A389 into the hands of EK, ev
53 SSTsomeday : I don't think that's necessarily the case. An A/C generates many, many times it's value in income over the course of it's lifetime, doesn't it? So th
54 mariner : I would think that Paris has a fairly desirable geographic position, or Amsterdam or Frankfurt, and London used to be called - maybe still is - the c
55 cschleic : That kind of growth, whether airport (Dubai's 15% per year) or airline, is unsustainable. It can't last forever. Think about it. The world economies a
56 Post contains links DocLightning : Looks as if it'll have six runways. Jeeesh... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Du...rld_Central_Airport_2_Imresolt.jpg
57 SSTsomeday : Regarding the issue of what Emirates will do with all these 380s, and will there be more protectionist restriction as to their usage in various parts
58 mariner : The European airlines withdrew from the Kangaroo route rather than compete. Including British - who has extraordinary historical associations with Au
59 Thorben : EY and QR are indeed interesting factors in this game. They are really copying EK's model, but not on the same size. However, they will be big enough
60 2175301 : So, lets think outside the box: Taken to the extreme of what EK wants to do they will need at least 5000 A380's, more likely 10,000, and perhaps a tot
61 parapente : Replies 16 and 17 say it all.It (as they say) has all been said before.No doubt it will need to be said again - but will equally have no effect.It is
62 ash185 : Is this really that surprising coming from EK, anything they order now is not surprising after what seeing all the orders over the last decade. I woul
63 Quokka : The airport and the airline are in fact totally separate companies and operate as such. Ultimate ownership of both is irrelevant. EK is charged the s
64 CHRISBA777ER : Fantastic post. Welcome to my RU list mate. People love to slag off EK, and aim all sorts of untrue and unfair accusations at them but the fact is, t
65 Post contains images SKAirbus : In Europe cars are already doing that... Volkswagen have engines that can do up to 80 mpg
66 ash185 : Thats spot on!! Some of the companies may be under a a group and/or owned by the govt but they have a hands off role. AIR NZ had funds injected into
67 MaverickM11 : What customers? One of the major problems is there are no customers. They do need DXB, because whereas EK has many advantages, they're still connecti
68 Post contains images astuteman : In a parallel universe perhaps. It's never ok to poke fun at A380 doubters on A-net, Thorben. You should know that by now. Irrespective of the fact t
69 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : As for the notional EK Requirement for A380s. Let me have a quick work out here: By 2017/8 - I reckon their A380 schedules might look a bit like this,
70 bestwestern : As long as they ordered the 748i.
71 Post contains images Thorben : Good point, indeed. Chapter 11 is a very big competitive distortion. Without it, there would be about zero US legacy carriers left. For real estate i
72 UALWN : You are missing Spain from your list. EK already flies to MAD with a daily 332 now. I imagine BCN will be added sooner or later.
73 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : OK i missed Spain - sorry MAD BCN? Where else have I missed?
74 Thorben : Maybe SZX. The region has up to twelve million people living there, might make an interesting destination.
75 pylon101 : And this true indeed. We talk a lot about EK in terms of transiting. But every single office of EK works hard to make people make a stop in Dubai. An
76 SR4ever : These are not to be taken as negatives, yet rather as risks on EK bright promising future. EK management is certainly aware of quite many of these, b
77 bestwestern : Well, then lets ban all the chinese and indian sub continent airlines.
78 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : Sounds like great news for Boeing. Which is why it would never happen. Both have A380's coming, BA has 77W's now, and both have/will have 787 and/or
79 Post contains images MaverickM11 : The operative word here being "were". Tons of internet boom IPOs were snapped up faster than you could blink and that proved nothing but a prelude to
80 tistpaa727 : I'm a little late to this thread, but my goodness....here we go again with the mudslinging... My take on the situation is this...if EK thinks they can
81 PlanesNTrains : Very true, and something I need to coach myself on at times. -Dave
82 Post contains images A342 : Maybe MUC. After all, it's the seventh largest airport in Europe and one of EK's two daily flights is operated by 77Ws or 773s. If they can't get mor
83 wingman : My comments are still mostly food for thought but the reality is that if EK doubles up to 180 firm orders in the 2-3 years it almost becomes a de fact
84 Post contains images mariner : Why they withdrew is not the point. They withdrew. And are now complaining about the success of another airline that filled in the gap. What major ci
85 SR4ever : How have conditions on Chinese and India majors changed in the past 20yrs, compared to EK? No worries in terms of hard product, although this isn't t
86 FlyNWA727 : So, what does that mean, exactly? Are you saying that history repeating its self is an impossibility?
87 Post contains images mariner : The shift in the paradigm. Good post. mariner
88 Flighty : IMO, yes and no. We have fewer competitive distortions than most other countries (check unbiased "economic freedom" rankings). Chap 11 has preserved
89 ElbowRoom : But if you think about it, there are many routes from EU capitals where Emirates doesn't and will not in the forseeable future offer a competitive se
90 Post contains images lightsaber : That was the original plan. I'm hearing enough noise to believe they will cut to 5 runways. They *only* need to be big enough to make AUH and DOH loo
91 Viscount724 : There was a 10 or 15 minute TV news report on the major Gulf carriers an hour or so ago (forget whether it was BBC, CNBC or Bloomberg), It included in
92 MaverickM11 : They withdrew long before EK. EK could no more sustain a kangaroo route of its own than most European or Aus./NZ carriers; it happens to be one of th
93 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : Thanks can't believe you feel the need to justify yourself - am I that argumentative? I'd be tremendously surprised if they did not get more slots -
94 david_itl : My only quibble is that you'd get very short odds at bookies for a 3rd MAN flight by the middle of next year (given the ridiculously high loads so fa
95 CHRISBA777ER : Thing is Birmingham will go A380 and I don't think GLA will be far behind, but MAN going three times a day A380 - by 2017 I'd give you evens. Certain
96 mariner : I'm not arguing any of that. My point is only that it seems churlish - and more than somewhat unfair - to dump on Emirates, as has happened, for succ
97 Post contains links and images lightsaber : Not at all! But before I say I disagree on this and that, I wanted to point out we were basically fully in agreement. Recently rejected with statemen
98 RyanairGuru : Absolutely. Hell, BA are the only other airline on the Kangaroo route, and they are hardly dependent on it. The simple fact is that EK, EY and SQ can
99 328JET : I do see a problem with that 90 A380s or more , but not for Airbus or Emirates. Emirates is very clever in ordering so many A380s that virtually all d
100 PlanesNTrains : Not at all. I'm saying that for Pan Am, the 747s were simply too much airplane for their network, at least in large quantities. But the world has got
101 pylon101 : Talking about PANAM we can't forget a crowd of B-727-200 that filled those 747s. In Europe PA had basically 2 hubs: FRA and LHR - and 2 dozens of 727
102 gemuser : Source? I find it hard to believe that Airbus would set deliveries up that way or that EK would want deliveries at 4 a month. 25 to 50% of the produc
103 Post contains links 328JET : All 90 Airbus A380 will be delivered until 2017: http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...seals-another-huge-a380-order.html 78 A388 for EK are still t
104 Post contains images astuteman : As 328JET showed, Emirates will basically be taking 1 A380 per month for 6 years. I believe they actually have a short hiatus in deliveries in the se
105 Post contains images epa001 : We all know they are working hard on achieving this. But the production increase has proven to be a lot harder then they originally anticipated. I be
106 Post contains links david_itl : If the A380 on EK17/18 is generating about 1000 passengers a day and the 77W on the EK19/20 is generating 800 passengers a day, then wiith the optimi
107 PlanesNTrains : Perhaps, but if they only have a limited number of slots left, then do you really think that they would prefer to sell them to the company paying the
108 Quokka : Thank you very much for your vote of confidence. I hope that I earn it. Best wishes, Roy Sure, all things being equal. But in the world of aviation t
109 Post contains images lightsaber : Finally, a reasonable number of A380 per month! It will be interesting to watch the ramb up rate. Well said. All true. Albeit, I see reaching 45 per
110 Post contains images lightsaber : Except I would bet SQ has lower cost options than EK... But otherwise I agree. Do not forget that a faster rate of production will produce airframes
111 astuteman : There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that short supply has crippled A380 sales over the last 5 years in exactly the same way as it also obviously
112 kaitak : Some airlines, like ANA, may not want it (although it would not surprise me if they were to move in the direction of the 380 later on), BUT I think t
113 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : Im sure you're right. I was sticking my neck out a bit on that statement, but felt it was essentially accurate. Between those two, I can't imagine ot
114 Post contains images EPA001 : That is my fear as well. But that is also why I wrote that achieving 35-40 in 2013 is quite a challenge. That would make the 45 per year in 2014/5 po
115 Post contains images lightsaber : If ANA could *rapidly* acquire a fleet of 20 A388's, I could see them using that to put the stake in the heart of JAL. Yea... a strategy change for A
116 BMI727 : Improvements in the economy should help that along a bit. The A380 isn't in nearly as bad a shape as some would make it out to be. I think that Boein
117 328JET : For sure they would like to have a customer which pays the highest price. But i am not sure if a new customer would really pay so much more than EK.
118 Post contains images astuteman : Unless Airbus can provide considerably more than 30 free slots in the next 7 years, any improvements in the economy will do nothing other than move d
119 Post contains images Schweigend : Emirates is cornering the market on A380s -- they can't possibly use all these planes for themselves. I think they may well become a quasi-leasing com
120 david_itl : so you've ignored the list of potential A380 cities listed above. The idea that a secondary airport will probably end up with 3 A380s per day has gon
121 Schweigend : EK may have to subsist on these-type low-fare pax to fill their too-numerous planes. And US, EU, Indian and other airlines will step up their games t
122 mariner : Another in a long line of posters saying that. Until shown otherwise, if they have ordered them, they intend to use them. No US airline flies to East
123 328JET : It is a simple fleet roll-over in which nearly every EK aircraft will be replaced by a bigger one. Most of the ordered A388 will simply free-up exist
124 Schweigend : Good question. Soon, I hope! That sounds logical, and realistic. I stand by my comments above, though.
125 david_itl : Some UK passengers? This "at the moment" has been a long time - 20 years in MAN''s case, raising numbers from 6,000 a month to around 1800 a day. Loo
126 Post contains images SR4ever : Agreed. KL may order a handful of 380s, too. 9W, IT, OZ and MU could also join the club, too. Sounds credible, especially as MUC has a good catchment
127 mariner : I shall be interested to see how they do it, then, given the geographic situation of the DXB hub. Although I do look forward to what Turkish does at
128 david_itl : Which is 5 more than what they are planning at maximum ramp up of production?!
129 SR4ever : Indeed. But if EK goes for another monster order, it will make sense.
130 Post contains images astuteman : Are you sure? Their current delivery plans are less than 40% of a (probably) conservative production projection.... It's quite easy to model that EK'
131 Post contains images lightsaber : Quoting 328JET (Reply 123): Most of the ordered A388 will simply free-up existing or ordered B77Ws, which will replace smaller aircrafts on other rout
132 Thorben : Their expansion is not as crazy as it seems. EK currently has 151 planes, all wide-bodies, and every time they get a new 77W or A380 it just disappea
133 mariner : Aren't two of the A332 on their way to Virgin Blue, or soon will be. Or is that already counted? mariner
134 Post contains images EPA001 : Me neither. I guess you have summed it up quite nicely. EK will continue to grow, I am absolutely convinced of that. And their hunger for A380's, B77
135 ncfc99 : In a recent article that was linked in another thread, Tim Clark said that they need 2.5 frames to fly a daily to west coast America. So if SFO and LA
136 Burkhard : EK growth is only limited by the number of flights the bilaterals allow them. So once they cannot get more slots they need bigger aircraft. That's a s
137 Thorben : No, not included. I wasn't aware of that. Airfleets lists to EK A332s as leased from ILFC. Are those the ones going to Virgin Blue? I only wished the
138 mariner : Sorry, I don't know. I do know that there is a done deal for 2 x A332 and they are "discussing" a further 4. mariner
139 Thorben : OK, and this deal includes that the planes come from EK? They are not getting new planes?
140 Post contains links mariner : As has been reported, the two A332 aircraft are coming from Emirates. It is all in this thread, with the summary in the OP and various other pieces o
141 Thorben : OK, thanks. If it happens like that, EK is really starting with the dismissal of those 68 planes listed above. In case of the A332, it is certainly n
142 MadameConcorde : Oh yes... rather than telling the world that EK will buy 300 more A380s they should really do what is needed to improve their on board service. I kee
143 2175301 : The assumption here is that EK will automatically be able to fill the larger aircraft on all of those routes... I think that is questionable as a gen
144 bestwestern : With the greatest respect msConcorde, how many times have you personally heard those stories, or are we using hearsay or unverified websites to get t
145 Quokka : I am sure the Emir would be only too happy to offload it at a reasonable price given that Emirate's debts. I don't know whether anybody would want to
146 MadameConcorde : Let's see... Dubai and the almighty Emirates Airlines could get Airbus to build a new aircraft with exclusive rights for EK alone. The new aircraft n
147 Post contains images astuteman : I thought we'd covered the sarcasm thing higher up the thread.... Rgds
148 2175301 : So lets ask some questions to flesh out where EK's future growth is likely to be: Above it has been stated that EK has grown about 6 times in a decade
149 UALWN : As it has been mentioned above, in order to fill those planes, EK's passengers have to double in the next 10 years. That's a 7% increment year-on-yea
150 Thorben : Every time EK starts a new route, that increases the demand to the existing routes that make a useful connection to the new destination. For example,
151 Cysafan : [quote=MadameConcorde,reply=146] Let's see... Dubai and the almighty Emirates Airlines could get Airbus to build a new aircraft with exclusive rights
152 Post contains links Thorben : And what precisely makes you believe that? What are the indications for it? BTW, there is a good table of EK's pax, results, etc. over the last years
153 mariner : And once upon a time - not so very many years ago - people were saying that about Singapore Airlines. mariner
154 Post contains images RyanairGuru : I wish people would realise that! If we had ANet in the 80s/90s you would have read exactly the same threads but find/replace EK/SQ "SQ order 25 747s
155 UALWN : New routes will be opened with "small" aircraft (332), while current 332 routes are up-gauged to 77W and current 77W routes get a 388. The seat incre
156 SR4ever : The circumstances were a bit different in the late 80s than from now. On most routes between major airports in Europe and the Far East at least had 1
157 Post contains images EPA001 : I have heard many reports stating the opposite, where once loyal KLM customers have now switched to EK and intend to stay there as returning passenge
158 mariner : That didn't affect the thinking of anyone I know. Most of the criticisms of Singapore Airlines were for quite different reasons. I'll say what no one
159 RyanairGuru : I think everything you've said about SQ is true, but who even remembers that now??? Give it 10 years and EK will be the same. And we'll be having the
160 Baroque : And the other thing about those ads was they were relevant to Singapore at the time they were introduced, but very atypical of Singapore girl from sa
161 SSTsomeday : I think it's one step more complicated than that... We've seen that bilaterals can restrict not only frequency, but also A/C type. EK is buying A/C a
162 david_itl : At what point would BA would consider? As EK is generally carrying 45,000 passengers a month at bare minimum at MAN, then about 20% O+D means that 90
163 SurfandSnow : Does anyone here think that, at some point, EK will become a victim of its own success? As it stands now, EK offers a hassle-free transit experience t
164 gemuser : Didn't I read on here that NCE had/was upgrading for the A380? CHC can certainly take an A380 now, via a remote stand if not the terminal. MLA I don'
165 mariner : Anything is possible, but they've been extremely smart so far, so I assume they're smarter than to fall into that fairly obvious trap. mariner
166 SR4ever : And European airlines are also good Airbus customers. Perhaps one should instruct a thorough study on what if at European (+Indian/Southasian) Airlin
167 Post contains images astuteman : I'm not sure what "many many times" would constitute, but for what its worth, LH's revenue in 2009 was E22 Bn AF/KLM's revenue in 2009 was E24Bn BA's
168 mdavies06 : Whilst BA may not be so fast in getting less LON centric, it is perfectly plausible that other airlines will see an opportunity in a market the size
169 rameshksm : While what you state is certainly plausible, it is very likely that not all MAN-India passengers are DEL or BOM bound and will likely need to connect
170 SSTsomeday : The point I was making is that I don't think The EU will sacrifice a huge chunk of it's airline revenue just to keep EK happy so they will keep buyin
171 gemuser : This is true of EVERY business. Disagree with "will". They may, they may not it depends on a number of factors and is not as simple as you make out.
172 mariner : Come to that, why does New Zealand give Emirates any landing rights - and traffic rights between Australia and New Zealand? Just as Lan Chile and Aer
173 Schweigend : Why indeed? The rights that EK now enjoys to AU and NZ may not last forever, if Australia or New Zealand perceive a threat to their national carriers
174 mariner : I can't speak for Australia, I don't know what may happen there, but I cannot imagine that happening in New Zealand. As I already said, little Air Ne
175 Schweigend : I wasn't aware that I had. Sincerely sorry for any offense caused. Air New Zealand is a super airline, and NZ is one of the best-run countries around
176 Burkhard : Because ( seen from Europe ) their backyard will have growth rates that will not be limited if they fly ten times more than now, and some of their fr
177 mariner : No need for an apology and I understood what you meant. My point is that you have no basis for saying it about New Zealand. The country is committed
178 rameshksm : Simply because they are a for-profit venture. Before we ask EK the question of "enough", there are several other corporations world-wide that need to
179 Viscount724 : As far as I recall, Australia and New Zealand granted 5th freedom rights to EK (and LA and AR) on the Trans-Tasman routes to provide an incentive for
180 mariner : I don't know why Australia did it, although I am Australian I wasn't there at the time, but I know why New Zealand did it. See MALIAT above. New Zeal
181 lightsaber : An old phrase in business is 'you grow or you rot.' EK, as an airline, has a drive to grow. There are *many* untapped routes for them to expand. Ther
182 A342 : While not as big, I would add Eastern Europe in general to that list. Even many capitals don't have any longhaul services.
183 RyanairGuru : NZ is a no-no as Gemuser said. Infact EK will more likely *increase* capacity into NZ and when the do they will be welcomed with open arms. At some p
184 ikramerica : Australia needs a stopover point to get passengers to the old world. They couldn't get into a restrictive agreement with Singapore or any other waypo
185 PlanesNTrains : My comment was in reference to the "unfair playing field" claim, which was linked to geography. I'm just saying that you can't really call geographic
186 mariner : That geographic position was extremely useful to European and Asian carriers before the advent of the longer range jets. I've lost count of the numbe
187 scbriml : Some believe the attitude to EK on this site would be significantly different if they had ordered 90 748s.
188 Post contains images gkirk : Newcastle-Dubai will upgrade from a daily 332 to a daily 77W within the next 15 months When EK used the 77W to NCL recently for the NCL 75th anniversa
189 SSTsomeday : With regard to their geographic position, I don't use the word "unfair," I use the words "level playing field" or "advantage." Their advantage simply
190 lightsaber : I doubt it. They are the #1 777 operator in the world and that hasn't cut them any slack.
191 ElbowRoom : But those other airlines fly many routes, not just the ones where Emirates is a close competitor. British Airways has had to face competition from va
192 SSTsomeday : I think what they will be able to do is serve secondary centers with one stop, in some cases with 380s, working on such a scale that their prices wil
193 astuteman : And yet EK are by no means always the cheapest solution on the sectors they serve And they say that their A380's command the highest yields of all, a
194 Post contains images ElbowRoom : Sounds like good news for the economies of those secondary cities. Better international connectivity; two legs on longhaul aircraft with a good range
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