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AA's Future Looking Bleak  
User currently offlineYazoo From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 487 posts, RR: 0
Posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 29445 times:

AMR shares just sunk (yet again) on disappointing forecast. Various factors seem to be costing them dearly (Lack of transpac presence, MD-80, Unions etc..)

Do you think AA will continue to under perform its peers for quite some time? please feel free to share your thoughts.

[Edited 2010-09-22 09:33:14]


Purple Pride!
136 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLHR380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 29402 times:

Quoting Yazoo (Thread starter):

The title is a bit over the top don't you think?

AA, just as any other airline has its ups and downs, but I think the word bleak is not needed at all.

AA is about to start the JBA proper, which will see it get a decent share of profits transatlantic, its customers get a better Frequent flyer package being able to earn and burn on BA services, and all 3 carriers will work together to get a bigger market share of passengers on these routes.

I say the future is looking quiet good for AA..


User currently offlineN471wn From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1561 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 29269 times:
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American has contined to shoot themsleves in the foot---alienating their potential new customers with fees, shrinking their fleet and with no defined growth strategy and thinking that this is the way to profits (which is true but a short run view) and letting SWA eat their lunch at DAL. They have so much potential and power but Horton and Arpey are so tentative in all that they do---I mean when was the last time that you saw any announcement from American that elicited excitement and promise? Their single biggest mistake was not going BK like the other legacies----their employees have not shown any appreciation for this and this no BK action (while well intentioned) is now long forgotten. I agree with the thread starter---American has a bleak future in the long run.

User currently offlineAirnerd From United States of America, joined Oct 2007, 255 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 29105 times:

At least they don't have to face all the near-term struggles and costs of a major merger. That should be an advantage in the next couple of years anyway.

User currently offlinemoman From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 29117 times:

Quoting Yazoo (Thread starter):
AMR shares just sunk (yet again) on disappointing forecast. Various factors seem to be costing them dearly (Lack of transpac presence, MD-80, Unions etc..)

I just don't see the MD-80s being a competitive disadvantage. Many passengers don't even know what kind of airplane they are on and book based on price alone. The only possible disadvantage that the MD-80 has is that AA keeps touting that it's replacing them with new 737s, which makes the MD-80 look like an inferior product, which it is not. Delta flies the MD-88/90 series and has no issues with it being inferior to other fleet types. Another poster did a great analysis a few years back on the flight hour costs between MD-80/738 and it was more similar than would be expected, and nearly equal to any flights less than 900nm, or about 2/3 of the routes that AA currently flies in the continental US.

What I do see being a competitive disadvantage is AA being stuck with 150 738s in the year 2020, most of which are not yet amortized, when a 737NEO/RS destroys the economics and resale value of these aircraft. Like it or not, aircraft, like cars, are not being designed or planned to last 30-40 years anymore because technology advances are shortening the economic replacement cycle.



AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
User currently offlineUnited_fan From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 7505 posts, RR: 7
Reply 5, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 29104 times:

Quoting Yazoo (Thread starter):
MD-80

They are being replaced with 738's . It takes time .



'Empathy was yesterday...Today, you're wasting my Mother-F'ing time' - Heat.
User currently offlineRising From United States of America, joined May 2010, 276 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 29074 times:

AMR, in my view, is a dichotomy.

On one hand you have a great network, with a great alliance structure. Their product is also rather good. Indeed, they also have one of the lowest ex-labor costs in the business. I personally love flying AA. Great service, and a cabin product, I would argue that is better than UA or DL.

But on the other hand you have a management team that continues to live in the world as it was, rather than the world as it is. AA is being suffocated by its costs and the leadership's answer, rather than to face it head on, is to just wait it out and hope that other airline's costs will rise. This is not my interpretation of it... that is exactly what Gerard Arpey said on their last conference call.

Ironically, this is not a new idea. In fact one famous ex-airline CEO was famous for propagating the exact same idea. His name? James E. Goodwin, former CEO of UAL Corporation from 1999-2001. We all know how well that worked out for UAL Corp. Here is a link to an article from the early part of the decade. http://www.businessweek.com/2000/00_46/b3707156.htm Read the answer to the question: "But Can United Afford All This?" It sounds just like Arpey.

I think in the next few years the Board of AMR is going to force the hand of management at AA to restructure. They simply cannot afford to do otherwise. And I would hate for Gerard Arpey, a very smart man who has done a lot of good things for AA, to go down in history with the same record as James Goodwin.



If it doesn't make sense, it's because it's not true.
User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 7, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 29029 times:

I would have to agree wit hthe first and third comment. I will disgagree here

Quoting Yazoo (Thread starter):
MD-80

and

here

Quoting Yazoo (Thread starter):
Lack of transpac presence

. There are many carriers that are not strong across the pacific and I wouldn't give them the same outlook. Remember when everyone was screaming for flights to China just 3-4 years ago? The economy and demand has changed so much we now see carriers totally dropping/moving service and asking for a delay. A transpac network isn't going to make or break a carrier IMHO. Also, look at Delta and their MD-88s/90s. Yes, they have returned some frames (88s) but for the most part I won't expect to see them lower the fleet # down much more. Plus, they are buying more MD-90s. I think the problem with AA is diversity. They will be in the same position they are in today with a HUGH fleet of 738s just like they were with 300 Super 80s. With both Boeing and Airbus working on a replacement (   ) I think they are truly missing out by doing a 2 for 1 swap or whatever they are doing over there.



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlinemoman From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 28881 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 3):
Actually the future is looking better for AA. ATI over the Atlantic and the Pacific is imminent. That will really help things.

If by helping things, you mean "offloading flights to international partners" then I agree. Short term, the ATI across both ATL/PAC will allow AA to better manage frequencies and schedules with partner airlines, which I interpret to mean that AA will move off some routes and let BA/JAL handle them, although the reverse will happen. Let's face it, AMR is a very conservatively run airline which is good for those who don't want change and has been bad for shareholders and passengers.

AA also cannot expand much at this time due to resource constraints. I suspect this is part of the reason that the 757 refurb (arguably the worst interior fleet in service) keeps getting pushed back; AA cannot spare the capacity cuts to get the job done. Maybe we will see some real expansion when the 787 comes online, but I also fear they will be mainly used to retire 767 aircraft.



AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
User currently onlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5622 posts, RR: 29
Reply 9, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 28772 times:

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 9):
I think the problem with AA is diversity. They will be in the same position they are in today with a HUGH fleet of 738s just like they were with 300 Super 80s. With both Boeing and Airbus working on a replacement ( ) I think they are truly missing out by doing a 2 for 1 swap or whatever they are doing over there.

I'm not clear, but I think you are saying that having a huge fleet of one type will be a disadvantage. If so,I'm not sure I'd agree. I think the bigger issue is that many of the legacies have missed a replacement cycle and so now are faced with some aging fleets that will need to be replaced in very large numbers in a relatively short amount of time. Had carriers like AA spent the past 10 years taking constant delivery of new builds, they'd be able to simply continue to roll over their fleet in a more predictable fashion. Instead, they are now faced with playing catch-up.

You can't change the past, and you can't control the economy. The carriers that have thrown caution to the wind by placing huge orders with bad timing have paid the price, too. I am actually quite impressed that AA has amassed such a large fleet of 738's. It's a great aircraft, and will serve them well.

BTW, happy a.net birthday.  

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlineN801NW From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 744 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 28727 times:

Yesterday Bloomberg had a story on AMR:

Quote:
American Struggles With Costs, Unions as Mergers Boost Rivals

American Airlines, which stood by as its biggest U.S. rivals completed two mergers, is struggling to return to profit as it confronts the highest costs among its peers, worst margins and the threat of a strike.

Here is the story.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7682 posts, RR: 25
Reply 11, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 28663 times:

Quoting Rising (Reply 8):
But on the other hand you have a management team that continues to live in the world as it was, rather than the world as it is

I do agree wholeheartedly with this statement. There is a dire need for fresh blood at AA's top.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinemoman From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 28636 times:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 11):
I'm not clear, but I think you are saying that having a huge fleet of one type will be a disadvantage. If so,I'm not sure I'd agree. I think the bigger issue is that many of the legacies have missed a replacement cycle and so now are faced with some aging fleets that will need to be replaced in very large numbers in a relatively short amount of time. Had carriers like AA spent the past 10 years taking constant delivery of new builds, they'd be able to simply continue to roll over their fleet in a more predictable fashion. Instead, they are now faced with playing catch-up.

I believe Fly and I are talking about the same. AA today has large numbers of relatively inefficient aircraft that have little residual value. They will wind up in the same situation in 10 years with the 738 fleet. For the argument that the 738 will have a long life in second hand countries, I don't buy that either. Better off countries like Brazil, India, Russia, etc are buying new builds. Countries like Venezuela, Colombia, African counties, Iran, etc - just wait until China starts building the C919 which I expect will be heavily used in developing countries in the future.



AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
User currently offlinecrosswinds21 From Netherlands, joined Jun 2009, 698 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 28533 times:

The "AA's future is looking bleak" statement has been said many times in the past. Yet, they somehow continue to exist and continue to improve their revenues year after year!

When AA was on the verge of losing JL to Skyteam, everyone said that AA's future is looking bleak because they're about to lose their footbprint in Asia almost completely. Yet, they managed to get JL to stay in oneWorld.

When AA was continuously at a disadvantage on the TATL front due to the lack of ATI with BA, everyone said that AA's future is looking bleak because they're at a huge competitive disadvantage. Yet, they managed to finally get a JV with BA and IB.

When oil prices were spiraling out of control, everyone said that AA's future is looking bleak because this factor, combined with their already high costs and quarterly losses would mean that something has to give. Yet, they managed to find ways to offset the oil prices by, in part, introducing checked bag fees for the 1st two bags which has led to an unexpectedly large revenue stream.

So next time anyone says that AA is on the verge of this of on the verge of that, think again. AA has some talented people working at corporate, and they'll find a way to continue pressing on.


User currently offlinefxramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 7308 posts, RR: 85
Reply 14, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 28496 times:
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Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 13):
I do agree wholeheartedly with this statement. There is a dire need for fresh blood at AA's top.

Can Ourpay and Whoreton.   



I miss the old Anet.
User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3429 posts, RR: 7
Reply 15, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 28432 times:

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 9):
There are many carriers that are not strong across the pacific and I wouldn't give them the same outlook.

Well the two carriers that had relatively small pacific networks were DL and CO and they now have NW and UA respectively.


User currently offlinemrskyguy From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1214 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 28435 times:

As a frequent business traveler who A) lives within a travel budget, but B) still has the last word on who to fly, AA had their chance. The cabin product is akin to a MAC charter.. sure it has seats and archaic seat power (DC cigarette plugs) but that's IT.

AA's biggest disadvantage from my perspective was also one of it's largest assets--it's network. This network is extremely complex, and highly organized to have flights feeding each other from all over the chain. The weak link in that strategy is the 'act of God' or unknown element. If something in the system hiccups (weather, delays, etc.) the entire system slows down. Sometimes it can grind to a halt.

Example? A year or so ago I was due to return on the AA nonstop from EWR-LAX when I received word that my flight had been cancelled. No worries.. it actually didn't bother me until I learned the detailed reason why. Evidently a major storm had parked itself over Dallas, drastically affecting AA's capability to make the network function, so a variety of flights (many which didn't originate or terminate in Dallas) were cancelled. Oi. Sadly, situations like that happen often with AA and the rewards program requires major investments of flight traffic.

WN on the other hand doesn't suffer from these issues, gets me where I need to go even when things go wrong, and has an excellent rewards program. Yes, AAL has operational capabilities that WN doesn't but evidently making considerable profits isn't one of them.



"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee." -- Gunter's 2nd Law of Air
User currently offlinecrosswinds21 From Netherlands, joined Jun 2009, 698 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 28374 times:

Quoting mrskyguy (Reply 18):
AA's biggest disadvantage from my perspective was also one of it's largest assets--it's network. This network is extremely complex, and highly organized to have flights feeding each other from all over the chain. The weak link in that strategy is the 'act of God' or unknown element. If something in the system hiccups (weather, delays, etc.) the entire system slows down. Sometimes it can grind to a halt.

Example? A year or so ago I was due to return on the AA nonstop from EWR-LAX when I received word that my flight had been cancelled. No worries.. it actually didn't bother me until I learned the detailed reason why. Evidently a major storm had parked itself over Dallas, drastically affecting AA's capability to make the network function, so a variety of flights (many which didn't originate or terminate in Dallas) were cancelled. Oi. Sadly, situations like that happen often with AA and the rewards program requires major investments of flight traffic.

WN on the other hand doesn't suffer from these issues, gets me where I need to go even when things go wrong, and has an excellent rewards program. Yes, AAL has operational capabilities that WN doesn't but evidently making considerable profits isn't one of them.

This problem isn't isolated to AA alone. All carriers, especially hub and spoke ones, have this problem. AA, IMO, has gotten quite good an managing IPPORS compared to other airlines in the US. I've had IPPORS experiences on AA as well as other airlines, such as DL and CO. The grass is much greener at AA in these situations, needless to say.


User currently offlinemoman From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 28347 times:

Quoting mrskyguy (Reply 18):

Example? A year or so ago I was due to return on the AA nonstop from EWR-LAX when I received word that my flight had been cancelled. No worries.. it actually didn't bother me until I learned the detailed reason why. Evidently a major storm had parked itself over Dallas, drastically affecting AA's capability to make the network function, so a variety of flights (many which didn't originate or terminate in Dallas) were cancelled. Oi. Sadly, situations like that happen often with AA and the rewards program requires major investments of flight traffic.

WN on the other hand doesn't suffer from these issues, gets me where I need to go even when things go wrong, and has an excellent rewards program. Yes, AAL has operational capabilities that WN doesn't but evidently making considerable profits isn't one of them.

All hub-and-spoke airlines are suspectible to these problems. My AA strategy is connect north (ORD) in summer, south (DFW) in winter to avoid delays. Southwest is currently the only major point-to-point airline that has staying power, and it sure isn't due to the strength of it's network, more to its lower costs and leisure focus.



AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
User currently offlinefxramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 7308 posts, RR: 85
Reply 19, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 28281 times:
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Quoting mrskyguy (Reply 18):
Yes, AAL has operational capabilities that WN doesn't but evidently making considerable profits isn't one of them.

Yeah, WN doesn't hub out of BWI, DAL, or MDW and experience equal or worse 'operational concerns' like other carriers with uncontrollable weather.  



I miss the old Anet.
User currently onlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5622 posts, RR: 29
Reply 20, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 28247 times:

Quoting moman (Reply 14):
AA today has large numbers of relatively inefficient aircraft that have little residual value. They will wind up in the same situation in 10 years with the 738 fleet.

But I guess my question is what should they have done differently? If they weren't buying all those 738's, they'd have even more MD's needing to be replaced, and more urgently. That they have got so many 738's into the system means that they will be better able to bring in the next big thing at a managable rate.

Continental has a huge fleet of newer 737's. WN has a huge fleet of newer 737's. DL has a very large fleet of newer 737's. Etc. In 10 years, they will all have to deal with the aircraft in their fleets - warts and all - just like AA. If anything, I think AA has done an amazing job at getting these newer 737's in such large numbers - I really thought the MD80's would be the noose around their neck by 2015. Instead, they are well on their way to replacing them, and could easily accept 150 Y1's or 320NEO's if that's the way they want to go. It won't hurt them to have these current ones in the fleet, imho.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlinemoman From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1054 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 28035 times:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 22):
But I guess my question is what should they have done differently? If they weren't buying all those 738's, they'd have even more MD's needing to be replaced, and more urgently. That they have got so many 738's into the system means that they will be better able to bring in the next big thing at a managable rate.

Interesting thoughts. WIthout having inside knowledge, I think there are two good strategies that AA could have taken:
1) Keep flying current fleet until 737NEO/RS or A320NEO is available (5-7 years). The MD-80s are not near their cycle or service limits yet, and are competitive operationally on at least 2/3 of the routes that AA is flying.

OR

2) Order 50-75 738s to replace long haul flying from ORD/DFW and keep remainder of MD-80s for 737NEO/RS/A320NEO. This is what it looked they were going to do until earlier this year when they bumped up the 738 order to 150+ frames overall, which will leave AA with 230 738s and about 175 MD-80s if current replacment trends continue.

You also bring up a good point: DL/CO/WN will also be dumping their 737 fleets around the end of this decade, so even the most optimistic case warrants a glut of these aircraft being available further driving down residual value (unlike today, when there exists a shortage).



AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11752 posts, RR: 62
Reply 22, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 27562 times:

It is a simple inevitability that, since AMR did not use the bankruptcy process to:

- outsource all heavy maintenance overhauls (in many cases to foreign countries)
- lay off thousands more employees at all levels and across various work groups
- freeze and/or dump virtually all of their defined-benefit pension plans
- reduce payscales for union and non-union employees even further than AMR did
- tear up decades worth of union work rules to make their workforces more efficient and productive

it will, of course, be at a substantial cost disadvantage relative to post-bankruptcy peers, let alone low-fare competitors who never had any of those legacy burdens in the first place.

AMR's strategy now must focus on containing the cost areas where it is at a disadvantage (labor, to a certain extent fuel, etc.) and - wherever possible - drive areas where it is at a revenue-generating advantage.

The ATI with BA/Iberia, I predict, will have a massive and transformative effect in that latter regard, with JAL also having a huge (albeit somewhat smaller) impact. Next to that, AMR should be more aggressive in seeking out markets where it can derive higher unit revenue returns even if that does, indeed, sometimes mean taking on somewhat higher risk. (Risk aversion is the hallmark of AMR management today.)

As for costs - many seem to think that Arpey and management aren't doing enough to contain costs, particularly labor, but I personally don't really see what else they can do short of filing for bankruptcy, in which case they destroy what shareholder (stakeholder) value there is left - although, again, that certainly would be par for the course for this industry. Short of bankruptcy, there is simply no way I see that the unions are ever going to agree to contracts that put them at cost parity with peers at other airlines. I - personally - just do not see it happening.

Quoting fxramper (Reply 16):
Can Ourpay and Whoreton.

You could get rid of every single person in CP5 6N and it still wouldn't make a bit of difference to the unions since, in the end, whoever is in that job is still going to ask the same things of the unions which the union politicians have thus far been unwilling to promise and which the union members have thus far been unwilling to accept.

It's sort of like how the European governments couldn't wait to get rid of Bush, and couldn't wait for Obama who was supposed to change everything, and now - guess what - Obama is asking the European governments for the exact same things (troops in Afghanistan, deficit fiscal stimulus, etc.) that Bush asked for.

No different here. You get rid of Arpey, the next guy will say the exact same thing: AMR's employees are too expensive, not productive enough, and the pensions too heavy a burden for the company to handle and still remain competitive.

The unions don't like to hear it, but that has nothing to do with Arpey - it's just reality, regardless of which executive is saying it.


User currently onlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5622 posts, RR: 29
Reply 23, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 27674 times:

Quoting moman (Reply 23):
1) Keep flying current fleet until 737NEO/RS or A320NEO is available (5-7 years). The MD-80s are not near their cycle or service limits yet, and are competitive operationally on at least 2/3 of the routes that AA is flying.

With no clear indication from either builder about when they planned to do a replacement narrowbody, I think AA was forced to move forward with what was known. In fact, up until the past few months, it seemed that the OEM's were discussing 2020-2025 for a new NB. While the MD's are great aircraft, they're not THAT great.  

Again, and not to be argumentative, I think AA has acted responsibly in replacing their MD's. With I think 360 after the TWA merger, they faced a huge replacement task. To have 2/3's of that already in service or on order is impressive and logical - to me.

Quoting moman (Reply 23):
which will leave AA with 230 738s and about 175 MD-80s if current replacment trends continue.

Which would seem perfectly timed for a new narrowbody order. Even with all those 738's, they will still need 100+ firm order clean-sheet NB's, plus options. That will take years to deliver, and they can't simply wait until 2020-2025 to replace most of their MD's.

Now, if the MD80 re-engining were to happen, then perhaps there'd be more life left in them, but short of that investment, which would still be years out, I can't imagine any reason to not have built up their narrowbody fleet of 737's.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlineAirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (4 years 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 27626 times:

Quoting N471wn (Reply 2):
Their single biggest mistake was not going BK like the other legacies----their employees have not shown any appreciation for this and this no BK action (while well intentioned) is now long forgotten.

I'm sorry, but I'd have to completely disagree on that. Why should employees be required to show appreciation for a company not going into Ch11. Any such action is a management/shareholder decision, and theirs alone? Surely you're not thinking that AA had such high regard for their employee's, and their welfare, that they decided not to enter bankruptcy solely because they didn't want to slash their wages/pensions/benefits!


25 Seatback : Who isn't? Except for WN, AA is imposing the same fees. Since when is WN "eating their lunch at DAL"?? By DAL I assume you mean the entire metroplex.
26 peanuts : Too soon to cast judgment at this time. AA has issues. However, recent changes have not fully materialized as of today. (ATI/JV with BA and the JAL co
27 LONGisland89 : So has every other legacy. AA has been trying to get ATI for the better part of a decade. Now granted, implies growth. I guess ATI and the upgrades i
28 Post contains links laca773 : Airline economists are saying the remainder of 2010 and the foreseeable future doesn't look good and continued losses are expected. Link: http://news.
29 Moman : Very interesting dicussion, and one I've enjoyed a lot. You bring up some good points. Regarding the re-engine, that was an option that cannot happen
30 TOMMY767 : AA should have not sat on the S80 replacements. Because of 9/11, AA said they will suspend deliveries of all 738s for the foreseeable future. AA did
31 txagkuwait : You know, destropying the investment of all your shareholders in a bankruptcy proceeding is not really a good business strategy. It might work in the
32 SolarFlyer22 : Agreed. They could have upgraded to the 717 like Air Tran did and at least kept some commonality but they basically skipped a generation of upgrades.
33 Post contains links planereality : While I tend to agree with Yazoo, stock prices often don't listen to the fundamentals. There are companies with rock solid balance sheets and manageme
34 planeguy727 : I thank AA for not using BK as an easy way to shift cost for some items (pension) to me (taxpayer) and for taking a firm stand to back up the obligati
35 PITingres : Obviously there is no requirement for employees to show appreciation, but are you implying that CH11 is irrelevant to employees? That is patently fal
36 SonomaFlyer : The cited article seems to contradict this point: "While they’re being replaced by Boeing 737s that are about 35 percent more fuel-efficient for ea
37 Yazoo : I just offloaded all my AMR shares before market close. Reading through the posts above doesnt make me think it will be rebounding any time soon
38 yellowtail : I deal alot with (USA based) US, AA, DL, B6 and CO respective HQs....and I can tell you in terms of nimbleness and aggressiveness...IMHO DL is at the
39 TOMMY767 : How does CO and UA rank respectively?
40 PlanesNTrains : That was a catastrophic event for the airlines, and each carrier needed to make the best decisions for themselves at that time. While I doubt that AA
41 peanuts : Going from: To: in less than 4 hours??? Reading mostly a.net folklore??? One line of advice: stay out of the stock market.[Edited 2010-09-22 13:49:17]
42 MAH4546 : That is simply not the case. And an imminent announcement about expanded JFK flying will quickly prove you wrong. In fact, I believe it was BA CEO Wa
43 yellowtail : Never dealt with UA. IMHO CO folks are/were always extremely confident in their product and extremely knowledgeable on their markets (on the ones I w
44 TOMMY767 : That's the thing. The only major decision AA made post 9/11 was to stay out of BK and cutting costs everywhere they could. I feel is Arpey wasn't aro
45 EricR : AA's lack of transpac presence has nothing to do with the situation they are in. There are a fair amount of carriers much more profitable than AA tha
46 Goblin211 : I agree w/ LHR380, especially b/c of the new codeshare agreement w/ jetblue. Should help them out a lot in the future so I don't think AA is going any
47 Yazoo : Been holding them since April. Lost 22% since then...
48 contrails15 : I wouldn't go as far to say as too stay out of the stock market but I certainly would stay away from ANY airline stock. Airline stock is extremely vi
49 Post contains images peanuts : You mean volatile? That's an understatement. If you can't stand the heat (of airline stocks), stay out of the kitchen...
50 contrails15 : I do. LMAO wow, what the hell is wrong with me today. Airline stock is the worst. STAY AWAY!!!!!!!!
51 GlobalCabotage : Airline stock ownership, turning billionaires into millionaires!
52 CALPSAFltSkeds : Actually DL's 737NG fleet is only 83 units according to airfleets.net and they haven't taken a new 737NG since 2001. DL has a larger fleet of md80/90
53 lucky777 : ??? I'm almost positive that's wrong. I'm sure an a-netter will be able to verify this, but to think it's been 9 years since they've received a 737-8
54 Transpac787 : DL has recently received N3772H, delivered on 20JUL10, as well as N3773D, delivered on 22JUL10.
55 TOMMY767 : I could have sworn DL received some new build 738s between 2002-2004?
56 lucky777 : Thanks. I knew somebody would have some info.
57 SESGDL : All of DL's 73Gs were delivered within the last 3 years, as well as 2 73Hs that were delivered a few months ago. DL's Airbus fleet is considerably yo
58 ckfred : And the other carriers aren't alienating customers with fees? Southwest is the only carrier that doesn't charge a fee for the first bag. UA has for s
59 AADC10 : I think AA's future is cloudy, but so is the future for all of the legacies. They got left out of the mergers but their only possible merger partner w
60 FURUREFA : Dolara essentially runs his own show in Miami. In terms of AA's MCLA (Miami/Caribbean/Latin America) operations, Dolara is highly independent - more
61 TOMMY767 : I wonder, is the M88 any more fuel efficient then the M82/M83? Seems like DL actually likes their M88s.
62 CALPSAFltSkeds : Sorry, I stand corrected. Reviewing airfleets.net again, I see the MSN numbers do not relate to dates of production and the 10 73Gs were delivered in
63 2travel2know2 : AA pretty much can survive only with hubs in both MIA and DFW and an important (mostly international) focus operation @ JFK. They surely need to learn
64 American 767 : Oh yes, definitely not before 2016, if not early 2020's. It is safe to say that in the middle of the 2010's American will still have MD-80's. The you
65 TOMMY767 : Not sure but I know that several of the older A320s were already in the desert before DL merged with them.
66 Cubsrule : That's all true, but AA's M80s have are older on average than DL's 320s, and DL's 319s are younger than their 320s by quite a bit.
67 pdxtriple7 : I really think this is an important point. While AA used to be known as an innovator, they seem to lack this creative drive. Moreover, AA suffers fro
68 DLMD90 : I was thinking the same thing, I mean if Delta is investing in their MD88s, they must plan on keeping them around for a while, does anyone the progre
69 TOMMY767 : One thing that just came to me is that 30-40 of the M88s are leased so maybe DL has some insanely great rate on them to keep them around. Also, on av
70 Max Q : Very well said, thanks for a reality check Air NZ. Generally the attitude here has employees to blame for all Airline woes. Of course, management, th
71 Max Q : Er, seriously ?
72 sccutler : "Leisure focus?" Southwest is, most essentially, a business travel carrier. Frequency and flexibility on change - these are designed for business tra
73 brilondon : Explain to me how the traveling public is being alienated by a shrinking fleet, and no growth strategy. Joe Public is not going to care about such th
74 GenYBusTrvlr : Wrong! My corporate travel policy has a formula for selecting an airline on any route based upon our negotiated discounts and published airfares. To
75 tsugambler : I'm certainly no expert, but from what I've read in various threads about the MD-90, it's a fine plane, but AA only got a few of them from Reno (like
76 jmc1975 : The Bilderberg elitists would love nothing more than for AA to fail! The name 'American Airlines' is far too nationalistic and too politically-incorre
77 moman : Note that I said the "reverse will also happen", which I meant that AA will also pick up flights. I'm thinking that AA will take over DFW-LHR, ORD-LH
78 ericaasen : Holy cow, that's one of the silliest arguments I've ever heard. Yeah, I'm sure there's millions of people who won't fly on AA because of the name. Co
79 FlyASAGuy2005 : That's where I was driving at. 10? Maybe a little more but I agree [checkmark} ?? CO however is a much smaller airline. AA would have to shrink DRAST
80 PlanesNTrains : Well, BK would have certainly changed things at American. I don't know if it would have made things "better" or not, but it might have. To the point
81 EricR : I'm not so sure about that comment. In the end CO didn't survive. They merged with UA.
82 peanuts : Well, good morning to you! Aren't you the light of the AA party today... I think you have a point. I expect many of these carriers to lose their nati
83 EricR : Better situation than US? How so? Just because the US network may not provide any value to AA doesn't mean US is in a worse position. US is much more
84 Seatback : Relatively speaking, I would say US over-all pressure at their hubs is pretty comparable. PHX and PHL have a lot of pressure from llc's. Although CLT
85 FlyASAGuy2005 : Indeed. Particularly PHL, WN seems to be pressing in quite hard. I flew through PHL for the first time in 2008 and was surprised by WN's size.
86 LAXdude1023 : If worse came to worse, they could do that. Everything AA touches in DFW and MIA seems to turn to gold. They have struggled everywhere else. ORD-Asia
87 Post contains images fxramper : An ignorant pilot perspective. Anet for stock advice?
88 Post contains images Super80DFW : Oh yes, that explains the new BA 744 that will start service in December.
89 Post contains images dlflynhayn : At the Marriott were i work part-time as a doormen i talk to a lot of business travelers and only one small firm that i know was using WN but she sai
90 LAXdude1023 : Indeed. Even though they did that before ATI was annouced, that was no coincidence. DFW is going to be a bulk destination to LHR, ORD and JFK will be
91 JAL : What AA needs in more innovative products and perhaps a merger partner to help it bulk up.
92 Super80DFW : AA knows where their bread is buttered. I'm looking forward to DFW-GIG starting up, and seeing how that service does. One thing that bothers me is th
93 FURUREFA : That flight really only exists to feed JFK international connectors. Most arriving in to New York much prefer LGA...
94 Post contains images CharlieNoble : Wow, that is very interesting...can you share what the reasoning might be to avoid a particular carrier like that? Is it because flying a LCC would j
95 LAXdude1023 : As someone who works in corporate travel, no it really isnt. I have very view clients that request WN for anything except DAL-HOU. In Houston, everyo
96 EricR : I do not have the numbers readily available, however, it was my impression that WN has actually held steady in PHL and has not grown the location muc
97 apodino : I hope you mean Mesa and not Midwest.
98 Cubsrule : I don't know that DAL or HOU - where WN isn't the largest carrier - are representative, though. With WN having more flight or seats than anyone else
99 TOMMY767 : Not to mention 6x M80 to EWR when DFW-EWR is one of AA's most profitable routes in the domestic system. It definitely could support 757s or 738s. Agr
100 milesrich : They negotiated some very favorable lease rates during the Chapter 11, as they told the lessors, either agree to this, or here are your airplanes. As
101 TOMMY767 : That's debatable. I always thought many in lower manhattan chose LGA unless they are CO/UA loyalists. I guess it's a world of difference between the
102 WesternA318 : I prefer JFK over the tiny LGA, and that's the only reason that stops me from flying AA anytime to the NYC area.
103 American 767 : It used to be a 727 back in the late 80's until the mid 90's when it was switched to the Super 80. I believe, however, that at one time I don't recal
104 jmc1975 : The carriers that you mentioned are not representing countries of notable military strength or significance, thus they are more "politically correct"
105 Post contains images ATLflyer : Tiny LGA? Well that's about to change soon.
106 WesternA318 : I think a few people expected pan am to tank after Braniff. How so?
107 TOMMY767 : As recently as 2008 but I've seen it on DFW-JFK various times since 2003.
108 ATLflyer : Not public information yet but let's just say compared to the recent plans Port Authority announced at JFK for Delta, this is much bigger. Many of us
109 Post contains images WesternA318 : 757's have been doing DFW-JFK pretty regularly, as I've seen on aa.com, just not at the times I've needed them + But the basic layout of LGA is the s
110 ericaasen : And you mentioned JAL but Japan hasn't been a military power since August 9, 1945. AA is not hindered by the name American! And if you truly believe
111 Post contains images commavia : While I would never say "never" to anything (except, of course, for saying "never" ), I tend to agree with you. The one massive option AMR still has
112 Post contains images Av8tor : JetBlue should buy AMR.
113 EricR : Yes I did. Thank you for the correction.
114 FutureUScapt : WN is actually down 20-25% from their peak numbers of PHL, in spite of continually having access to a minimum of 8 gates. They have also ended servic
115 EricR : YV has reduced a lot of flying from PHX. In fact, I would arguably say more than mainline. I think you are forgetting how big YV was. Below is a sampl
116 Post contains images FutureUScapt : Nope, I'm not forgetting anything. First off, your list isn't entirely accurate as some of those cities were dropped back in the HP days, others are
117 mariner : I am scratching my head trying to work out why naming an airline after it's place of origin is - in any way - politically incorrect. If those are the
118 GenYBusTrvlr : **disclaimer** I don't work with our Travel department so this is simply my understanding... **disclaimer** For the preferred carriers, we guarantee
119 Lufthansa411 : Manhattan really is a mix between all three airports. It depends on whether you are a local or a tourist, and for those of us who don't want to pay $
120 CharlieNoble : Thanks for that explanation! I'm not sure how the actual negotiation works for Gov't travel, but we have to book our flights on "contract" carriers v
121 jfklganyc : "I'm not so sure about that comment. In the end CO didn't survive. They merged with UA." Dude, I am not a CO fan, but give me a freakin break with thi
122 EricR : Yes, they are profitable with a huge gateway in EWR, a huge central hub in IAH and Pacific hub in Guam, but in the end they did NOT survive - PERIOD.
123 apodino : I know this was explained in a different post, but I was thinking that because WN does not interline with anyone in irregular ops, it makes it much m
124 bobnwa : How do you know this, since AA doesn't publish that info? That may be an opinion of yours, but most people certainly would not agree. Their military
125 TOMMY767 : What you just described is CO's main problem, a lopsided network: Guam isn't a big operation, EWR is maxed out, IAH is too south to be central for mo
126 tsugambler : I think there's an important distinction to be made between surviving/not surviving vs. flourishing. The merger was not a question of CO's continued
127 CharlieNoble : That's another great point. The employee's time is money when they are on the road...thanks!
128 Cubsrule : And in most markets, WN allows the employee to use his time BETTER because they lack change fees.
129 bobnwa : I have never seen a list like that published.
130 Post contains links TOMMY767 : Below: AA Q1 2008 Route And Hub Performance (by MOBflyer Jul 18 2008 in Civil Aviation)?threadid=4071485&searchid=4076758&s=AA+Q1+route+perfo
131 Flytravel : They do have some non leisure East coast: to BOS area (they did add PHL-BOS), and they do compete on flights to PIT and RDU. But, I think PHL is down
132 yellowtail : IMHO...if AA was the preferred merger partner with UA....you would have seen them do it too...in the end these CEO have to grow the airline for the s
133 WROORD : AA should do more Mexico and Carribean flights from ORD. CHI is the second biggest market after NYC and it does not have any direct connections to man
134 GenYBusTrvlr : No thank you! I'll wait around for my first seat on another carrier.
135 NYCAdvantage : I my self would not like to see the risk of this happening, last time everyone went under chapter 11, the market was in worse shape than today, and t
136 Cubsrule : Like the vast majority of us, I don't work in an industry that smiles on that sort of behaviour.
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