TOMMY767 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (4 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 17709 times:
Quoting AA767400 (Thread starter): AA will drop SJU-TPA/BOS/BWI/PHL/SDQ again. Last flight will operate April 6, 2011. AE will also cut 10 flights out of SJU the same date. This will leave AA/AE with a combined 41 departures.
Um...wow...the last P2P clingers of the SJU hub will soon be gone. Sad AA. What about IAD?
The last time around, AA announced that it would cut BWI, FLL, EWR, MCO, LAX, and IAD (as well as a downgrade of intra-Caribbean mainline flights to SDQ, AUA, etc. to Eagle). Ultimately the airline decided to keep BWI, LAX, and IAD - in fact, both LAX and IAD will survive this round of cuts as well.
Nobody back in 2008 could have foreseen AA cutting BOS-SJU which was, at the time, a major focus city-hub route. BOS is now little more than a spoke - even BOS-SFO is ending.
Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 1): the last P2P clingers of the SJU hub will soon be gone
Well, mainline will still serve BDL, IAD, and CCS in addition to the five hubs at DFW/ORD/MIA/JFK/LAX. Eagle will still have a fairly robust operation throughout the Eastern Caribbean.
Somehow this one escaped the ax. SJU-BDL and SJU-CCS make sense because AA is the only carrier on these routes. But SJU-IAD, against UA, which has significant feed on the IAD end? AA has been cutting from the Washington market a lot lately, so I imagine there must be some contract (federal gov't or otherwise) keeping this one in place.
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
PRAirbus From Puerto Rico, joined Apr 2005, 1171 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (4 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 17533 times:
They are not dropping again...only BWI was part of the initial drop and then restarted. This is not surprising. SJU has become "LCC territory". The economy in Puerto Rico is not good either; it's too expensive to vacation in Puerto Rico. Remember, AA is right-sizing and keeping services to its hubs and focus cities. SJU-PHL has a lot of capacity on USAirways (3/4 per day even A330 and 5/6 on weekends); SJU-BOS; B6 already has 3 daily, SJU-TPA; B6/FL will start 4 per day...AA's 757 on the SJU-TPA route will be put to better use on longer sectors; FL/B6 will lower fares on the SJU-TPA and AA will not be profitable; same thing happened when AA cancelled its 4 daily A300s between SJU-MCO...the market became low cost. SJU-SDQ is well served by AE and jetBlue has 1 or 2 daily jets per day depending on the season.
peanuts From Netherlands, joined Dec 2009, 1555 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (4 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 17475 times:
Let me add a few more thoughts to my reply #2 post.
Maybe this is good, for AA. As discussed in an earlier thread, AA needs to get through some pain first in order to get better. This may be a step in that direction. This is a sign that the AA days of reckoning are well under way.
Let's not forget the huge price AA is paying for their own sluggishness though. They've made it too easy for LCC's to enter the Caribbean, just way too easy.
Question Conventional Wisdom. While not all commonly held beliefs are wrong…all should be questioned.
AA dropped IAD along with EWR in 2008 but brought it back in 2009. Seems like AA really can't make up their minds at SJU. IMHO, they are cutting (and in 2008, rather have been cutting) some very valuable routes.
chepos From Puerto Rico, joined Dec 2000, 6310 posts, RR: 10
Reply 11, posted (4 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 17360 times:
AA discontinues more SJU flights, Que Pena! What was once a sizeable operation is now a mere spoke in the Catribbean. I can see IAD going by the way side in the not too distant future. CCS is safe as it is the only link between San Juan and Caracas, from what I have understood the route is safe. Additionally, do to the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela no LCC or new airline will get the rights to serve the route (in the near future). BDL is safe as long as a LCC does not jump intto the route, if JetBlue decides to add SJU from BDL in the future AA's BDL-SJU route will be done as well. It will be interesting to see if the new UA/CO decides to bully AA on the ORD-SJU. These days you push and shove AA and they seem to retrench.
Santi319 From Mexico, joined Dec 2005, 441 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (4 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 17067 times:
My thought and prayers go to the employees affected by this...besides that I'm glad this happened they are a terrible airline, hopefully Jetblue or Spirit will finally step in, perhaps Sprit will reopen their SJU base (hint).
RL757PVD From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4837 posts, RR: 10
Reply 15, posted (4 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 16923 times:
Quoting Santi319 (Reply 14): My thought and prayers go to the employees affected by this...besides that I'm glad this happened they are a terrible airline, hopefully Jetblue or Spirit will finally step in, perhaps Sprit will reopen their SJU base (hint).
Jetblue with Cape Air (ATR and C402) would be a perfect fit
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
ChrisNH From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 4321 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (4 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 16872 times:
I remember the days when AA flew several A300s daily between Boston and San Juan. This is quite a drop in passenger capacity not to mention freight capacity from those A300 days. What percentage of this market would constitute cruise traffic? Half?
ThePinnacleKid From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 740 posts, RR: 7
Reply 18, posted (4 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 16816 times:
Ummm... did anyone think that maybe this is also going to be a calculated move to "shift" the market over to a more "appropriate" operation for the economic environment??? (B6) I.O.W.... AA pulls its capacity away from SJU to allow the fleet to be better utilized on their own network with more biz/high-end revenue potential.. free up some larger equipment for the new BA/IB/AA joint venture... and then expand the new codeshare to B6 who may take over a large percentage of the Caribbean and San Juan ops????
AA and B6 are getting cozier and cozier these days... this is a perfect symbiotic relationship between two carriers in different niches.. Legacy & LCC working as one to feed each other to a joint gain....
flyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1380 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (4 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 16735 times:
I wouldnt be suprised to see B6 start BDL-SJU, and maybe even IAD or BWI-SJU. Such a sad story to see AA walking away from the Caribbean Hopefully Eagle can retain a decent presence through the islands and pick up some random pax from the FL/B6/etc who bring them in from the mainland. Maybe if AA/AE can work a codeshare with B6 we will see a return of the Eagle SJU flights.
[Edited 2010-09-24 13:51:33]
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Exactly what I thought as well. I can see a further slot swap at JFK with B6 in order to send some more 757's transatlantic.
Quoting ThePinnacleKid (Reply 18): Ummm... did anyone think that maybe this is also going to be a calculated move to "shift" the market over to a more "appropriate" operation for the economic environment??? (B6) I.O.W.... AA pulls its capacity away from SJU to allow the fleet to be better utilized on their own network with more biz/high-end revenue potential.. free up some larger equipment for the new BA/IB/AA joint venture... and then expand the new codeshare to B6 who may take over a large percentage of the Caribbean and San Juan ops????
AA, I think, is realizing its new priorities and wants to make up for lost time with the ATI.
“I think it's wrong that only one company makes the game Monopoly.” - Steven Wright
CYBERGUS From Venezuela, joined Mar 2006, 525 posts, RR: 9
Reply 23, posted (4 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 16438 times:
So definitely this leaves CCS as the only International destination of the once hub of AA? I know that the flight goes very good for connections specially to the SJU-MIA flight when the CCS-MIA are full, but is there any other strategy to impulse this route and keep it as profitable? (Besides the tension between US/Venezuela)
peanuts From Netherlands, joined Dec 2009, 1555 posts, RR: 4
Reply 24, posted (4 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 16359 times:
Quoting ThePinnacleKid (Reply 18): AA and B6 are getting cozier and cozier these days... this is a perfect symbiotic relationship between two carriers in different niches.. Legacy & LCC working as one to feed each other to a joint gain...
Mmm...if there is any truth to that than I foresee DL putting in a bid for Spirit soon and setting up shop in FLL for South America...just to make it uglier for AA.
Question Conventional Wisdom. While not all commonly held beliefs are wrong…all should be questioned.
: Only on a.net do people think a carrier losing as much as AA would actually cut profitable flying.
: If DL were to take over Spirit, they would need to raise the salaries of Spirit employees to DL levels. A lot of Spirit's markets that Spirit can mak
: You see that happening if B6 and AA get cozier, aligning wages? That would make all these current efforts seem pointless. B6 and AA cannot be one lik
: Why don't you go back to the other thread and look it up under the link if left for you, "AA Q1 2008 route profitability and performance." The list w
: What's the old saying about a thousand little wounds bringing down the giant? Over the past 10 years, the LCC's have invaded not only SJU but the enti
: Yup..AA reducing SJU again after winter season....they pulled once and went back chasing revenue so guess that didn't work so overflying from DFW and
: Indeed. These are all mainline flights are they not? It will be interesting which hub(s) are the beneficiaries of this pull-down. Agreed. Given that
: Although AA has cut back its former SJU hub to the point of basically closing it, they have grown their Miami-Caribbean network substantially. When SJ
: But is it a form of retreat or a brilliant new strategy? My impression is that they left the door wide open for LCC's to enter the market overall. Fo
: The aircraft are probably going to join the MD80 hub at ROW. They'll just swap out the SJU canceled aircraft with MD80s flying somewhere and ferry th
: It is a retreat - from Puerto Rico - but it's not so much that they "left the door open" to LCCs, but rather than for certain Caribbean markets, the
: Some more details emerging are that Eagle will discontinue service to six destinations from San Juan, including PAP, POS and some Dominican cities. Ho
: With the reductions, is it possible that the many flights to SJU may be "right-sized" or down-gauged due to few connections?
: AA is strong still in Caribbean in general. SJU is a different story. But would you consider US a LCC? (I would). This I tend to agree with, but it f
: Regarding AA in the Caribbean - AA has also lost gound in the DR. From JFK to SDQ and STI (alone) AA has slashsed frequencies, B6 has gained alot of m
: I agree 100% with DFWEagle. AA does not need SJU to reach most of its Caribbean destinations and SJU (economically wise) is not in the best position n
: Anguilla, La Romana, Port of Spain, Puerto Plata, Port-au-Prince. I only counted 5 destinations
: Regupilot makes a great point: with MIA so close, is SJU really needed? Can we say that SJU is an operational necessity for AA's system, perhaps due
: and on a related topic also with the employees at the MCI mtc base closed yesterday.
: Always nice to see your posts. Thank you for such a great analysis. To me SJU has been an LCC destination for such a longtime now. Before B6, You had
: Puerto Rico is part of the United States.
: I was kind of hoping that US would be the one to acquire Spirit. Probably wouldn't happen, but that's who I wanted to. - Dave
: The sixth is SJU-NEV (Nevis island) which will operate only for this winter. There will actually only be a few destinations left from San Juan that a
: Been of a few of those flights That statement is almost contradictory. SJU is AA's Caribbean hub. By association, abandoning SJU equates to abandonin
: I imagine B6 will up freq on SJU-SDQ and I could see them adding Punta Cana-SJU. This is just connecting the dots for them. Longer term . . . BDL-SJU
: Not any more. The majority of AA's Caribbean traffic flows through Miami instead. It may not quite be within the Caribbean itself but it serves almos
: So AA is downsizing yet again? It's bad enough that I don't constantly hear engine noise as often as before but now it's even less than before. Howeve
: "When Delta closed the old PanAm hub in FRA, did it equate to abandoning Europe? Of course not because they now serve almost all destinations non-stop
: It could be anything from the expansion of AA's international network to the expedited retirement of MD-80s. Exactly, AA just needs to find the right
: True but shifting Caribbean service away from SJU is the first step in the drawback. I didn't mean to use the word "abandoning" too literally. I was
: jetBlue has already said they would explore "options" to serve the Caribbean nonstop from Hartford/Bradley after they begin service in November.
: Yes and no I guess. The fact that AA has been slow to respond to changing conditions and cost structure is what I mean by leaving the door open. The
: Lets not forget Capitol, I was thinking around the same lines as you, the difference back then all those guys used old equipment, B727, DC8, B747 and
: How do you know that? How many cities has AA "abandoned" in the Caribbean in the past five years? On which routes ex-SJU is OW too expensive? I'll ce
: The only reason DL would likely ever have for buying NK is to shut them down. Buy the planes, get the gates/slots/operation at FLL, and then attempt
: Um, no, they are not. AA has continued to grow in the Caribbean as it has replaced capacity from San Juan with capacity from the mainland. A few year
: From a connectivity standpoint, yes, this makes sense. However, this is going to have adverse implications from a cost perspective. Having a traditio
: I can see PVG being expanded. But NRT will continue to be important too. As to AA, I wonder if AA will start more direct services from their current
: Have you actually seen the numbers Tommy? Do you know for a FACT that SJU-EWR was profitable? What makes you so sure. If it were profitable, they woul
: Airlines do drop routes that are profitable. What some people don't factor in though is all the other aspects of the resources. An airplane that is f
: YES! EWR-SJU was profitable for many years and up until the time it was dropped. Do a search "AA Q1 route performance 2008" and you will find out tha
: First off, your link gives revenue/RASM performance, not P&L data. There is a difference. Secondly though, your last point remains true in that i
: Your right about those lists but certainly that's a good indicator as to how a route is performing. AA I feel is king of cutting profitable flights a
: There was actually a lot of behind the scenes politics with ORD-DME that killed the route. It was more than just an issue of AA not giving the route
: Moscow saw a lot of increased capacity to North America in the last few years. Secondly, especially with AA's high costs, there is a BIG difference b
: "Um, no, they are not. AA has continued to grow in the Caribbean as it has replaced capacity from San Juan with capacity from the mainland. A few year
: Ugh, yeah well, if they had their high costs negotiated AA could buy more planes and keep the high revenue markets that have been or are being cut. W
: AA is significantly larger than DL at LAX any way you want to slice it: departures, seats, market share, etc.
: I mean I understand in terms of seats that AA is but much of AA's LAX hub is a few point to point routes (MCO, EWR, IAD) a small eagle operation, LHR
: Technically speaking, Bermuda is not part of the Caribbean.
: This statement is false! This past Summer, AA operated MIA-KIN 4x daily, MIA-PAP 4x daily, MIA-PUJ 3x daily, MIA-CUR 2x daily, FLL-PAP 2x daily, MIA-
: Your list does not say anything about whether the route was profitable or not. Again, let me say that airlines do not publish those kind of lists. So
: Based on that list you can take a wild guess how routes are performing. Again, I don't know how AA's high labor costs affect such routings to the poi
: I agree. The loss at SJU will turn into a gain at MIA and JFK. Too bad AA is so plane constrained that they have to abandon profitable flights to gro
: I think it's good to see American rationalizing their network. mariner
: Don't forget YYZ and BNA. AA also carries a lot of QF and CX connecting traffic from Australia, New Zealand, and HKG. To AA's credit, they have a con
: Very true. DL is very consistent to Hawaii and Mexico (on a seasonal level) and while they do shift around in a lot of secondary markets from LAX, th
: For those of you don't don't quite understand this: SJU has become a local and some business traffic airport. It is not longer a feeder or hub or what
: A "few" point-to-point routes? It is 4 hub routes and 29 point-to-point routes. AA is bigger than DL at LAX in every single metric. And here's a metr
: This was the foregone future for AA at SJU the second day after AA purchased Eastern's MIA operation many many years ago. The first day after was the
: 29 including Eagle yeah that makes sense. NOT 29 mainline point to point.