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STL Cautious Over WN/FL Deal  
User currently onlineatrude777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5702 posts, RR: 52
Posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 2536 times:

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/m...1-b4b9-58d3-b4b1-83a2f799fb8a.html

Airline mergers, consolidation and realignments haven't been kind to St. Louis in recent years.

So it wouldn't be surprising if there was a bit of hand-wringing following the news that Lambert-St. Louis International Airport's biggest carrier, Southwest Airlines, is planning to buy one of the airport's smallest, AirTran Holdings.


Truth be told, I don't see too much changing at STL in regards, we'll gain ATL for sure, quite possibly MKE? However if WN didn't see the demand in STL-MKE themselves, and FL has said the RJ flights are full, I just don't know what the yields are.

Possibly we could see DCA/LGA for sure to STL.

Good read by the article, however, valid concerns or is STL folks here not too worried about WN/FL at STL?

Alex


Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
15 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15833 posts, RR: 27
Reply 1, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 2476 times:

Quoting atrude777 (Thread starter):
Truth be told, I don't see too much changing at STL in regards,

Nor do I.

Quoting atrude777 (Thread starter):
quite possibly MKE?

STL-MKE seems to have been a dog for every airline that's flown it recently, so I wouldn't be holding my breath.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlinesteex From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 1764 posts, RR: 9
Reply 2, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 2428 times:

At this point, I think you can come up with as many reasons for a positive or negative impact on STL from the deal, so I'm inclined not to worry about it. In reality, I imagine the reality will be somewhere in the middle.

On the positive end, you could make a case that WN may not have as much desire to keep the connecting complex FL has assembled at MKE, and may redistribute some of those resources elsewhere in the network. Given recent WN actions, I think there's a decent chance STL would benefit to some degree in that scenario. STL can effectively serve the same east-west traffic flows and has competitors who most likely have less desire to fight than F9/YX has at MKE.

At the other end of the spectrum, it's possible that STL's high landing fees could cause WN to look at it the other way. They will have other new cities in the network that could potentially serve some of the same purpose that STL does at lower cost, though you could certainly make the argument that cities like MCI/IND/BNA allow that some opportunity today.

As I said, I imagine reality probably will be more along the lines of status quo - though my gut feeling is a slight lean toward the positive. The two carriers have very little redundancy today (just MCO), so maybe FL's capacity there just goes away. I can't imagine WN deciding to keep the SkyWest agreement at MKE, in which case I could see them sticking a couple of daily mainline trips on the route. The best opportunities for STL probably come in the form of WN's increased LGA slot portfolio, I would bet they'll take a shot at running AA and/or DL off the route given the apparently strong performance of STL-BOS. I imagine they wouldn't mind doing the same at DCA, but they won't have nearly as many flights there, so they probably have bigger fish to fry there.


User currently offlineMNMncrcnwjr From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 308 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 2373 times:

Quoting atrude777 (Thread starter):
valid concerns or is STL folks here not too worried about WN/FL at STL?

Well with only one direct quote in the article from an airport spokesmen and that was a we'll see in a year type comment...

IMHO it is a knee jerk reaction to fill column inches.... WN has 60 + flghts per day DL has 40+ and adding ... AA continues to shrink .. the B and D concourses are all but shuttered ... STL has more issues than losing 8 FL flights and maybe adding 1 AS flight to the mix .... but still it is the only option for 150+ miles surrounding it, smack dap in the middle of "fly over country"  



CV340/580DC3DC9super80MD88/90DC10717273747576777A319/20CRJ2/7/9F27AVROJET31CITAT5/7/XSAAB340YS11Dash8E135/45/75
User currently offlinetsugambler From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 302 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 2250 times:

Quoting steex (Reply 2):
The best opportunities for STL probably come in the form of WN's increased LGA slot portfolio, I would bet they'll take a shot at running AA and/or DL off the route given the apparently strong performance of STL-BOS.

Given my druthers, I'd hope they'd be able to wrest it from AA. I flew AA loyally for a long time, but once AA gave up on STL, I gave up on them. I'd be happy to fly DL or WN to LGA if possible.


User currently offlineMNMncrcnwjr From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 308 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 2217 times:

Quoting tsugambler (Reply 4):
I'd be happy to fly DL or WN to LGA if possible.

Dl offers 4 NS /day ... WN has 0 NS but a number of connections and DL one way fare 2 weeks out is lower than WN.



CV340/580DC3DC9super80MD88/90DC10717273747576777A319/20CRJ2/7/9F27AVROJET31CITAT5/7/XSAAB340YS11Dash8E135/45/75
User currently offlineacjflyer From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 427 posts, RR: 6
Reply 6, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2132 times:

Quoting atrude777 (Thread starter):
Truth be told, I don't see too much changing at STL
Quoting BMI727 (Reply 1):
Nor do I.

I agree with both of you in terms that nothing will be cut. The only thing that may change is the Skywest flying. Gary Kelly specifically said that he is interested and commited to growing Atlanta and Milwaukee. With that being said I would imagine Southwest will use STL to their advantage as an easy transfer point for missed connections and operation recovery. It is ideally placed to make recovering the operation after an event in an easy manner extremely possible. Yields are important but something that Southwest does a great job at is always keeping the big picture in mind meaning the yield may not be near as important on the MKE-STL run as it is the get the aircaft to STL for other runs that will make the bigger difference.

Quoting atrude777 (Thread starter):
FL has said the RJ flights are full, I just don't know what the yields are.

See above.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23302 posts, RR: 20
Reply 7, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2132 times:

Quoting MNMncrcnwjr (Reply 5):
DL one way fare 2 weeks out is lower than WN.

...which probably says something about the difficulty DL is having filling the airplanes.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 1):
STL-MKE seems to have been a dog for every airline that's flown it recently, so I wouldn't be holding my breath.

It certainly wasn't for AX or YX when they had decent frequency on the route.

Quoting steex (Reply 2):
The best opportunities for STL probably come in the form of WN's increased LGA slot portfolio, I would bet they'll take a shot at running AA and/or DL off the route given the apparently strong performance of STL-BOS.

It would not shock me to see WN try STL-LGA. STL seems to be a laboratory for a (more) business-focused route portfolio than some other cities. Part of that relates to the fact that St Louis has significant business ties with other nearby large WN cities (Chicago and Dallas), and part relates to the timing of AA's dehubbing and WN's entry into BOS, LGA, etc.

I think most cities with FL and WN won't see much effect of the merger in the short- to medium- term except maybe a reduction in ATL service. WN says that local passengers fill flights, and if that's true, the radically different connecting flows with ATL in the network shouldn't affect existing service much (WN doesn't object to routing the same BOS-PHX passengers over DEN, MDW, BWI, and STL today, so why would routing them over DEN, MDW, BWI, STL, and ATL be problematic?). Because of their recent focus on STL, I think STL might come out better than average.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15833 posts, RR: 27
Reply 8, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2103 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 7):
It certainly wasn't for AX or YX when they had decent frequency on the route.

Midwest never went with anything bigger than a B1900, then they left, and now they are back with an ERJ-135. Doesn't sound like a big winner to me.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23302 posts, RR: 20
Reply 9, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2035 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 8):
Midwest never went with anything bigger than a B1900, then they left, and now they are back with an ERJ-135

They did a decent job of filling the aircraft at an average yield of nearly $1 per mile (average o/w fare was typically in the $230 range). What's wrong with that?



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15833 posts, RR: 27
Reply 10, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2005 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 9):
What's wrong with that?

I don't think that Southwest or AirTran could fill one of their planes at those yields. They have to have other places to send those planes where they will make more money.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineMNMncrcnwjr From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 308 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2005 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 7):
Quoting MNMncrcnwjr (Reply 5):
DL one way fare 2 weeks out is lower than WN.

...which probably says something about the difficulty DL is having filling the airplanes.

Or just the fact that the pairing is still less than 60 days old and they're still in the introductory phase building a base...



CV340/580DC3DC9super80MD88/90DC10717273747576777A319/20CRJ2/7/9F27AVROJET31CITAT5/7/XSAAB340YS11Dash8E135/45/75
User currently onlineatrude777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5702 posts, RR: 52
Reply 12, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 1985 times:

Quoting MNMncrcnwjr (Reply 11):

Or just the fact that the pairing is still less than 60 days old and they're still in the introductory phase building a base...

The introductory fare for STL-LGA was 87 one way, I don't see that anymore on Delta.com, it is now close to 200 one way, 2, 3 and 4 weeks out.

I have to fly to NYC on a Tuesday in end of October, and it is 195 dollars one way to JFK and LGA for me.

If you're seeing this intro fare please show me so I can book it.

Alex



Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
User currently offline777STL From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3768 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 1958 times:

I won't be falling over myself to fly DL again, at least not from STL. A terminal is a zoo now and DL's carry on baggage limitations are ridiculous. I'm not a big fan of Hartsfield either. I'll pass.


PHX based
User currently offlineMNMncrcnwjr From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 308 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 1928 times:

Quoting atrude777 (Reply 12):
If you're seeing this intro fare please show me so I can book it.

Sorry never said I saw the $87 one way fair just that the DL one way fare was lower than that of WN on the same route w/ WN only offering connecting service thru MDW or BWI..... in answer to a poster that said they'd fly the route if able ...

Quoting 777STL (Reply 13):
A terminal is a zoo now and DL's carry on baggage limitations are ridiculous.

Not any diff than East with a full bank of WN .. I fly STL DL weekly and I have no problems w/ a roller board and a backpack ..... Now ATL can be a bit crowded during a bank period but still better than ORD or DFW .... not as good as DTW though....



CV340/580DC3DC9super80MD88/90DC10717273747576777A319/20CRJ2/7/9F27AVROJET31CITAT5/7/XSAAB340YS11Dash8E135/45/75
User currently offlineManuCH From Switzerland, joined Jun 2005, 3012 posts, RR: 46
Reply 15, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1896 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

As there are now official WN/FL merger threads, this one will be locked. Please continue discussion here:

WN/FL Merger: Impact On Airports (by Moderators Sep 28 2010 in Civil Aviation)

Any additional posts that are made to this thread after this post will be removed for housekeeping purposes, as this may happen due to a short system lag.



Never trust a statistic you didn't fake yourself
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