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Boeing To Report On Further 747-8 Progress  
User currently offlinekeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 26833 times:

Bloomberg reports Boeing is expected soon to report on further 747-8 progress.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ge-as-analysts-see-next-delay.html

“We’re in the home stretch now,” Albaugh said. “We’ll be late on the 787, but once this airplane is delivered, our customers will be very pleased and will forgive us for being late, and the same is true on the 747.”

http://www.billmings.com/assets/images/747-8_cutaway.jpg

Boeing has orders for 76 of the 747-8 freighter and 33 of the Intercontinental passenger version. Albaugh said Boeing is now in talks with three airlines about both models.

60 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinerbgso From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 587 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 26694 times:

So I guess the flutter issue will hopefully not require relocation of the engine mount. I know Boeing has little if any credibility left with regard to certification and delivery. I just wish they'd get these problems solved.

User currently offlinewingman From Seychelles, joined May 1999, 2219 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 26535 times:

Two years on the 787and two years on the 747-8 (I agree with the one analyst that in this case it's practically indefensible being a final variant). As for Airbus it's two years on the 380 and four years on the A400.

Dare we hope that with the 350 Airbus will start a new industry trend of delivering aircraft on time? I hope so. As the years sail by you start to wonder which plane will be the one you never get to see fly yourself.


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30641 posts, RR: 84
Reply 3, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 26369 times:
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Well they're going to need more orders if they have any hope to get this program out of the red.

Good thing all the 747s that came before it earned so much money.


User currently offlineDEVILFISH From Philippines, joined Jan 2006, 4782 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 26275 times:

So the program touted to cost very little to develop is now deep in the red? Good thing there's a bit of positive news out of Everett.....

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...l-body-mating-of-first-747-8i.html



"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1871 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 26238 times:

Quoting wingman (Reply 2):
Two years on the 787

Two years and three quarters for 787, actually (original EIS Q2 2008, actual EIS Q1 2011).



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30641 posts, RR: 84
Reply 6, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 26195 times:
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Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 4):
So the program touted to cost very little to develop is now deep in the red?

Supposedly if they can sell and deliver another 200, they'll hit their original revenue targets, and I don't see these new charges affecting that too much, since it would be between $1 million (low end) and $4 million (high end) in additional costs per airframe when spread across 300+ frames.

Boeing does appear to be willing to just write-off the costs of the program to date and deliver what they have on order instead of selling additional frames at such a low profit margin that they might end up being underwater upon delivery (when you factor in inflation) and ending up losing more total money.


User currently offlinepnwtraveler From Canada, joined Jun 2007, 2229 posts, RR: 12
Reply 7, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 26115 times:

Quoting rbgso (Reply 1):
credibility left with regard to certification

Yes Boeing has made some real screwups with communication and how delays were handled. However, certification isn't something Boeing can fudge, nor is it something they have control over. That is a regulatory thing and not something Boeing can screw up. As it has been explained to me, if there are no wrinkles in testing then perhaps you aren't pushing the envelope enough.

Airbus had problems on the A380 with the landing gear doors catching. The complexity of the wiring and customer driven complexities caught them by surprize. We all know the empty shell rollout of the 787, fastener issues, and now engine supplier problems. 747 I see as pretty simple, engineer resources were deployed elsewhere.

Lets get real folks. As the complexity goes up, then the propensity for problems and delays goes up. Delay is the new black. Anyone who thinks flight tests should go exactly to plan and totally on a preset schedule, has no understanding of what testing really is.

Back to the 748, Boeing has said there would be further orders this year and it seems some are definitely in final negotiating stages. However, credit is still tight so we will see if this has an impact at all on whether the orders get pushed back further. I know nothing about the flutter issue but have heard the program is also going ahead of the curve with regards to performance. While the airlines likely know ballpark ideas of numbers, it will be interesting to see how much better they end up being.


User currently offlinebikerthai From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 2072 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 26026 times:

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 7):

Lets get real folks

  

Maybe the complexity is such that only two major airplane companies (with significant backing of government support) is currently building wide-bodies. Until a new upstart "C" can build these planes on schedule and on budget, we are left to throw stones at A and B.

bikerthai



Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
User currently offlineCharlieNoble From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 25990 times:

************
Quote from the Article:

“This is inexcusable -- they should know that airplane like any airplane they’ve ever built, and then some,” said Howard Rubel, an analyst with Jefferies & Co. in New York"
*************

LOL, what does that even mean? Apparently the job description for "analyst" at that firm does not include communications skills or the ability to recognize that which is out of one's area of expertise.

Just about every Boeing model ("Like any airplane they've ever built", LOL) has required significant intervention as a result of flight testing.

[Edited 2010-09-29 10:13:10]

User currently offlinenicoeddf From Germany, joined Jan 2008, 1099 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 25980 times:

Quoting keesje (Thread starter):
Albaugh said Boeing is now in talks with three airlines about both models.

Yeah...they certainly are...  


User currently offlinetrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4700 posts, RR: 14
Reply 11, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 25638 times:
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Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 7):

Back to the 748, Boeing has said there would be further orders this year and it seems some are definitely in final negotiating stages

They have been saying this every year every year since the program was launched!!


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30641 posts, RR: 84
Reply 12, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 25574 times:
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Quoting trex8 (Reply 11):
They have been saying this every year every year since the program was launched!!

To be fair, they did land an MoU from W3 (which appears will never be turned into an actual order) and they have received inquiries from other carriers, but at prices too low to justify accepting.

So there is demand for the plane out there, but Boeing appears to feel that with the cost of the program, they have a certain minimum price they will accept lest they risk those orders adding to the programs costs (due to the delivery cost being more than the payment price).

McNerney has mentioned "nobody wants to buy a $250 million plane" when talking about the 747-8. I don't expect he means he is asking $250 million for a plane, but I would expect he's not willing to go below the current 50% average off of list to secure a deal.


User currently offlinecosmofly From United States of America, joined May 2009, 649 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 25539 times:

From the picture, it looks Boeing has some new ideas for the OSU (overhead service unit with 737 floor space). I counted 17 sleeping booths with seats, a lounge with 8 chairs, and a crew rest with 10 booths. Also the stairs to OSU has been moved to door 4.

User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4003 posts, RR: 13
Reply 14, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 25390 times:

Quoting pnwtraveler (Reply 7):
Lets get real folks. As the complexity goes up, then the propensity for problems and delays goes up. Delay is the new black. Anyone who thinks flight tests should go exactly to plan and totally on a preset schedule, has no understanding of what testing really is.

I don't agree with that all.

I say, Boeing and Airbus and you let's get real.

With complexity the propensity for delays goes up. Conclusion: When developing a new product, such companies need to build larger provisions for unforeseen issues in their project plans. Companies that deliver multiple steps of a large project consistently late are simply not competent at putting a time line together. People get fired for this. Frequently.


User currently offlinebikerthai From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 2072 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 25333 times:

Quoting incitatus (Reply 14):
Companies that deliver multiple steps of a large project consistently late are simply not competent at putting a time line together.

If it was an industry that have constant new model roll-out (automotive) then I would agree.

Considering the time span between new airplane roll out, it would be hard pressed for companies to maintain continuous expertise in their work force to gain from lessons learned. After all, how many VP's stayed long enough to oversee one or two new airplane program?

Boeing will be lucky if the core of the 787 designer can be carried over to the new 737 replacement. Or as the trend now-a-days many of the folks may take their experience somewhere else and have their replacements learn the same harsh lessons over again.

Back to the car industry comparison . . . good thing Boeing or Airbus didn't build something like the GM Aztec.

bikerthai



Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
User currently offlinekanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 3402 posts, RR: 26
Reply 16, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 25309 times:
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I think after this both companies are going to review their public disclosures a lot more to minimize public relations nightmares.. there is a point where there can be too much information to be digested by untrained observers... and not enough schedule room for flight-test/manufacturing problems that do come up...

User currently offlinebikerthai From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 2072 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 25292 times:

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 13):
From the picture, it looks Boeing has some new ideas for the OSU (overhead service unit with 737 floor space).

From the blog: http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/fl...oeings-skylofts-gets-new-bert.html

"The two companies announced orders Monday for the feature for two head-of-state aircraft and two more kits for an additional Middle Eastern client . . . found little interest from airline customers . . . "

bikerthai



Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
User currently offlinepnwtraveler From Canada, joined Jun 2007, 2229 posts, RR: 12
Reply 18, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 25231 times:

Further in the article from Flightglobal, it says that solutions have been found for both the inboard aileron and a structural flutter that occurs at mid-weight near cruise speed. So those appear solved are at least solutions are being tested.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...s-wing-mating-of-first-747-8i.html


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30641 posts, RR: 84
Reply 19, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 25093 times:
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It would be interesting to wonder if Airbus and Boeing became victims of their own success when it came time to launch the A380, 747-8, 787 and A350.

Major airlines seem to trend to order in binges of dozens, if not scores, of planes - be they narrowbodies or widebodies.

Airbus and Boeing may very well have offered such "quick" times to marker for their products to try and knock their competitors out of the market. Boeing secured almost 1000 787 orders in a handful of years, soaking up a large chunk of the 200-300 seat widebody market. If they had been able to execute to plan, a good chunk of those A330 orders Airbus has been securing as of late would never have materialized.

The A380 secured fifty launch orders, which was quite impressive at the time, and with the planned EIS and production ramp, made it almost silly for an operator to buy a 747-400 since they would be unlikely to get it any earlier.

We're seeing a somewhat similar effect with the 777-300ER and A350-1000. While the -1000 is not officially delayed, it's EIS is looking a bit dicey as Airbus continues to refine the model and struggles with the industrial and production ramp of the A350-900. If the market was 100% confident the A350-1000 would arrive on time and meet every performance guarantee, would Boeing have sold almost four dozen 777-300ERs to date this year?


User currently offlinetrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4700 posts, RR: 14
Reply 20, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 24870 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
If the market was 100% confident the A350-1000 would arrive on time and meet every performance guarantee, would Boeing have sold almost four dozen 777-300ERs to date this year?

Yes, because even if the A350-1000 is on time which is doubtful, if you want delivery in the second half of this decade if not before the the 3rd quarter of this decade, the 77W is the only real choice as I doubt A has any significant delivery positions earlier than that!


User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1563 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 24812 times:

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 13):
From the picture, it looks Boeing has some new ideas for the OSU (overhead service unit with 737 floor space). I counted 17 sleeping booths with seats, a lounge with 8 chairs, and a crew rest with 10 booths. Also the stairs to OSU has been moved to door 4.

Any significance that they have used Sydney as the backdrop? I doubt it but thought it rated a mention.



BV
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 962 posts, RR: 51
Reply 22, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 24583 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
Airbus and Boeing may very well have offered such "quick" times to marker for their products to try and knock their competitors out of the market

FWIW, when Boeing officially launched the 7E7 in 2004, the development schedule was entirely inline with past Boeing programs which got all-new commercial aircraft to market in less than 5 years.


User currently offlineKELPkid From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 6346 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 24422 times:

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 15):
. . good thing Boeing or Airbus didn't build something like the GM Aztec.

...Which actually sold quite well in a rebadged version as the Buick Rendezvous, no thanks to an endorsement by a then far more acceptable Tiger Woods   (fortunate for the engineers...I'd hate to have been the guy that said "yes" to the looks of the Pontiac version, though!) Okay, back on topic  



Celebrating the birth of KELPkidJR on August 5, 2009 :-)
User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15719 posts, RR: 26
Reply 24, posted (3 years 10 months 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 24304 times:

Quoting wingman (Reply 2):
Dare we hope that with the 350 Airbus will start a new industry trend of delivering aircraft on time?

On time is probably a stretch, not because of incompetence, but just because airliners are huge projects and things come up. But I don't think that the A350 will turn into a fiasco like some previous programs.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
it's EIS is looking a bit dicey as Airbus continues to refine the model and struggles with the industrial and production ramp of the A350-900.

I must admit that the one variant a year introduction schedule seems rather aggressive to me.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
25 Post contains images incitatus : Please re-read your own text above. You are simply supporting my point. If airframe makers cannot maintain continuous expertise from project to proje
26 kanban : the plans were beautiful and detailed, the execution was poor and much was/is caused by inexperienced middle management that believe you can do anyth
27 Post contains images Chiad : No! 18 months for the A380. 2 years, 3 months and counting for the B787. > 2 years and counting for the B748. As for the A400 ... take it to corre
28 incitatus : The charts may have been pretty, but big risks were overlooked. I can't agree the plans were good or that Boeing was simply unlucky. There was unprec
29 bikerthai : Sloppy? Perhaps. But if any VP with a pitch to the Board of Director with a "realistic" plan, they would have been told to come back with a better sc
30 Post contains images PITingres : Been there, done that. "If it's going to take THAT long, don't even bother, we can't afford it, by then nobody will buy it, maybe we should fire all
31 hannahpa : Thank you for keeping the perspective. People sure like to come to hasty conclusions and assumptions, and nit-pic without thinking about the big pict
32 BoeEngr : Exactly... Things are never as easy as they ought to be. You're not the only one!
33 kanban : the 757 was almost totally outsourced at the beginning... (all except the wings) and we learned many lessons and retired with the knowledge .. outsou
34 tdscanuck : Except you can't. If you ever come out with a *real* timeline & budget for a major aerospace program at a publicly traded company, it will never
35 Rheinwaldner : How much incompetence should reasonably be accounted in to make it *real*? Is it *real* to prepare huge buffers for capital errors? The 748 schedule
36 astuteman : I don't know. If the A350-800 really IS (for now) an A350-900 with a few frames taken out, introducing this within a year should be plausible. The A3
37 tdscanuck : It's not incompetence (in most cases), it's complexity. It's simply not possible to precisely manage all the risks in a program where you don't know
38 incitatus : Let's start with Mike Bair. The greatest concern of a board of directors or an executive committee is to mitigate risks in business opportunities. Th
39 bikerthai : And one final word on outsourcing . . . I remember Boeing had issues with the Japanese partners when developing the 777 (insufficient engineering infr
40 F9Animal : Yet another delay? Now mid 2011? Come on now!
41 Post contains links B777LRF : Well done Albaugh, you've managed to shoot yourself in the foot once again: "We’re in the home stretch now,” Albaugh said. “We’ll be late on t
42 Rheinwaldner : But before those all schedules did also not have the buffers but still worked. E.g. the 777. The A380 IMO is a case where the error could not be expe
43 frmrCapCadet : Until Airbus is able to turn out 3 380s a month the program is not a success Until Boeing is able to turn out 7 787s a month the program is not a suc
44 NAV20 : Heck of a good comment, IMO, tdscanuck. Except, possibly, it's not a matter of 'incompetence,' but rather 'over-confidence.' Both major firms have ma
45 SEPilot : Have you ever tried to manage a project as complex as developing a new airliner? It is regrettable, of course, but as Tdscanuck eloquently states it
46 Stitch : He's still employed at Boeing Commercial Airplanes. In fact, he was "promoted", even if it was just to get him out of the way. Bad luck that Airbus d
47 SEPilot : The technical term is percussive sublimation.
48 pnwtraveler : You sell a huge airliner with customization and a bazillion options like showers, tons of different variables, and a gazillion miles of wiring and yo
49 Zkpilot : Bet me too it! was about to say that its a nice pic of Sydney too! Well who flies jumbo/+ aircraft to SYD that are contenders for 748I.... QF, UA, TG
50 BMI727 : That's the thing I was wondering. Every time something goes wrong with the 787 everyone comes out and says that outsourcing was a bad idea, they'll n
51 Revelation : Actually the quoted article says they have already written off $2B and analysts are saying there will be another writeoff of anywhere from $0.1B to $
52 seabosdca : This is history by hindsight on the A340. At the time, Airbus expected the A340 to grab the lion's share of the sales, with the A330 as a specialized
53 Stitch : Per Boeing's comments today, no additional charges will be forthcoming with the new delay.
54 Post contains images bikerthai : LOL. Believe me when I say Boeing Engineering have just as much clout with respect to Boeing Sales as their Airbus counterpart. I would venture to gu
55 trex8 : CI flies to SYD with A333s ? 5x/week
56 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : Now there's a shocker! It's a bummer that we're seeing more delays. Hard to sugarcoat it in any way, and hard to not be dissappointed. If there is a
57 Post contains images seabosdca : D'oh! At least they're not likely to go there with a 747 And, of course, LA flies there as well, again with much smaller equipment than a 747.[Edited
58 Rheinwaldner : They tried to build a software bridge that would allow the conversion of design documents between different versions of applications. They bet on tha
59 Post contains images epa001 : I think you are spot on with these comments. . I am not sure this is true. I think both companies have enough cash to cover the new program costs. An
60 Rheinwaldner : Therefore I said "quite good"...
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