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UA Growth At ORD Post Merger  
User currently offlineGlobalCabotage From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 602 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 10 months ago) and read 5377 times:

There have been a few threads on this forum that ORD will be the one hub that does not see decreases in fligts, but will see increases (sorry CLE).

I see ORD becoming a powerhouse hub due to location, strong O&D, corporate contracts, etc. Now where will this growth occur?

ORD-:
ICN: OZ flies 3x a week in Star, seems like a logical choice
KIX: Bring it back?
NGO: With some Toyota business?
EZE: With more to Asia, could work on a 762.
PTY: Starting to stretch, but could work.
MAN: Against an AA 757, would work.
OSL: Star city on a 757, why not?
GDL: No MX, AM not as well know in Chicago, and CO seems to do well there.
MTY: See GDL
BJX: See GDL
MLM: See GDL
DGO: See GDL
More Caribbean (albeit mostly seasonal)?

25 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineTOMMY767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (3 years 10 months ago) and read 5339 times:

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Thread starter):
ORD-:
ICN: OZ flies 3x a week in Star, seems like a logical choice
KIX: Bring it back?
NGO: With some Toyota business?
EZE: With more to Asia, could work on a 762.
PTY: Starting to stretch, but could work.
MAN: Against an AA 757, would work.
OSL: Star city on a 757, why not?
GDL: No MX, AM not as well know in Chicago, and CO seems to do well there.
MTY: See GDL
BJX: See GDL
MLM: See GDL
DGO: See GDL
More Caribbean (albeit mostly seasonal)?

Competing with DL out of DTW to Asia would be great. I can see ICN coming online but not sure about NGO and KIX right away. Much of the feed for those flights can be done via the SFO hub.

EZE: I wonder how profitable the flight actually is because AA canned theirs soon after the initial launch. I'm hoping for an EWR-EZE at some point in the near future as that is a huge hole in the now former CO network. I'm sure it's still a viable route out of ORD but it seems rather stable on a 763. A 762 might even work better depending on how the premium loads stack up.

Any Mexico expansion MTY, BJX, MLM would likely be done on CO 738s, 73G, or UA 319 if I had to take a stab to it.

Also your right as Caribbean flights out of ORD are currently minimal on UA. Maybe that's where they can put the CO 753s to work for seasonal services during the winter.

MAN would work great on a CO 757.



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently offlineSeatback From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 756 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (3 years 10 months ago) and read 5318 times:

Do you really think there will be a build up of Chicago during the integration period? I tend to think we'll see some changes, but nothing drastic. However, I'd guess that AA will use the time to build up Chicago further (as has been mentioned in other threads).

If you think about Delta's integration period, DL hasn't really added/subtracted that much to it's hubs (other than to continue to downsize CVG).


User currently offlineGlobalCabotage From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 602 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 5109 times:

As mentioned in several threads, ORD was the one hub that did not have cuts (DEN and CLE were hit pretty hard, more of a blow to CLE as DEN has much more mainline aircraft).

Until UA receives a single OC, it would be CO metal flying some routes or UA metal flying some routes with the respective crews. UA and CO do need to work out the RJ 70/50 seat differece between the two carriers.

Also, this will put pressure on AA to put up or shut up at ORD. I do think AA will put up, but we shall see on Wed 10/06/10 to see if they are adding from ORD or shifting to JFK.


User currently offlinetimberwolf24 From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 575 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 5083 times:

I could the following cities being added from ORD.
VIE (Star Hub)
ATH (Star Hub also large Greek population in Chicago)
LIS (Star Hub)
Does any one think TLV would work?



Living in LA, ORD/MDW will always be home!
User currently offlineSurfandSnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2856 posts, RR: 30
Reply 5, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 5006 times:

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Thread starter):
There have been a few threads on this forum that ORD will be the one hub that does not see decreases in fligts, but will see increases

You are sorely mistaken. It is a.net consensus that ORD, IAH, SFO, and EWR will all see quite a bit of growth due to the merger. DEN, LAX, and IAD are uncertain (but any decreases would be modest), and CLE, well..

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Thread starter):
ICN

ICN has never been a very strong station for UA. The airline has struggled just to keep SFO-ICN n/s going. UA is more than happy to let OZ fly this one for them.

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Thread starter):
KIX

Maybe the third time will be the charm for this one!

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Thread starter):
NGO

This would be flown from SFO, not ORD.

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Thread starter):
EZE

Doubtful. Service from IAH and IAD should suffice for now. I could see EWR-EZE before ORD-EZE, honestly.

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Thread starter):
PTY

With a Copa codeshare it might be possible, but I would think they would let Copa fly that one.

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Thread starter):
MAN

By far the most likely service you have suggested.

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Thread starter):
OSL

Possible, but they would probably fly IAD-OSL before trying ORD-OSL.

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Thread starter):
GDL: No MX, AM not as well know in Chicago, and CO seems to do well there.
MTY: See GDL
BJX: See GDL
MLM: See GDL
DGO: See GDL

Let's see how the ramp up of ORD-MEX does first before we throw out all kinds of ideas like this. Such services directly overfly IAH, so I would guess they're a long shot at best.

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Thread starter):
More Caribbean (albeit mostly seasonal)?

Any additions would be quite minor. Most Caribbean additions will probably come out of IAD.

Quoting TOMMY767 (Reply 1):
Competing with DL out of DTW to Asia would be great.

DL and UA serve Asia in very different ways. UA has been highly successful in overflying Japan for the past decade or so. DL still heavily relies on routing everyone through Japan. It remains to be seen how the new DTW-beyond Japan routes pan out.



Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
User currently offlineGlobalCabotage From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 602 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4896 times:

Why is ORD-ICN such a dog for UA / AA and DFW-ICN would be such a cash cow for AA? ORD-ICN is flown daily by KE and 3x weekly (night flight) while KE flies DFW-ICN 3/4 times a week. Is the market that much bigger from DFW to support 10/11 weekly flights vs ORD service? Would AA drive KE out?

PTY, I agree that this would be Copa, not UA/CO metal.

LIS, didnt' think this was viable via ORD.

ATH, seems like a great seasonal route from ORD, but yields may stink with 95% load factor.


User currently offlinePhilInBRN From Switzerland, joined Jun 2009, 250 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4759 times:

Why not a daily flight to ZRH in addition to the daily LX flight. To MUC UA also flies alongside LH. Fares are always very high on the LX flight.

User currently offlineMexicana757 From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 3031 posts, RR: 29
Reply 8, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4684 times:

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Thread starter):

GDL: No MX, AM not as well know in Chicago, and CO seems to do well there.
MTY: See GDL
BJX: See GDL
MLM: See GDL
DGO: See GDL

Of all those routes I see GDL as a possibility starting out of ORD with UA, the rest I dont see. The rest can be served well through IAH. I think AM now has made themselves known in Chicago. They have been in Chicago for a few years now, enough time for people to get familiar with who they are. As the only airline flying to GDL at the moment this will give them a good opportunity to take over the traffic that MX served to GDL. Aeromexico Connect flies ORD-DGO, and this route has always been 1X or 2X weekly even when MX flew on the route. I think AM picked up DGO when MX dropped it about three years ago.

Whenever Mexico regains CAT I both AM and UA will face competition on the Chicago-Mexico traffic from Mexican LCC(s). AM will probably reopen ORD-MLM. Volaris I'm sure will open GDL-Chicago flight, and I predict maybe ZCL-Chicago. Also predict Viva will probably apply for MTY-Chicago.


User currently offlineAADC10 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 2073 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 4179 times:

I think ORD will be flat for the near future. New York is the center of demand for smaller European destinations and those flights will stay at EWR. UA will probably maneuver to keep themselves slightly ahead of AA at ORD but little more. The smaller Asian destinations will remain at SFO since it is the most convenient connection point. IAH is a better connection point for Latin America and UA is unlikely to add more flights there out of ORD. If anything, some flights to Latin America that currently depart out of IAD might be shifted to IAH.

ORD will remain a key domestic hub with connections to the fattest international destinations. I can see domestic expanding after the time promised to CLE expires.


User currently offlineCOalways From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 360 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 4101 times:

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 9):

I agree I don't see UA gaining that much growth. Newark is a power house for Europe Destinations IAH is a power house for South America and I'm sure more Long hauls would be annouced to the middleeast and europe and SFO is the power house to Asia so don't see much gain for ORD maybe a few more Europe destinations.


User currently offlineflyinryan99 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 2000 posts, RR: 12
Reply 11, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 3918 times:

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Thread starter):

What about new domestic markets? I know there are a few airports like FNT and TOL that don't have UA that has AA which could both work on AA and DL. Doubt we'd see Dash 8s to ORD but maybe take some of those RJs that are in CLE and spread them around a little bit more?


User currently offlineGlobalCabotage From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 602 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 3785 times:

ORD will get more domestic service as CLE is dismantled (UA will pay the $20MM as they will recover this quicker at ORD than flying RJ's at CLE for 5 years).

I also think ORD will get a few more European destinations and eventually more Asian service (MAN, OSL, BBI in '11, ZRH, VIE, MXP, ICN, HKGx2).

I would also expect ORD-IAH and ORD-EWR to see equipment upgrades starting this summer.


User currently offlineORD Boy 2 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 285 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3658 times:

I could see an ORD or IAD-TLV flight working but it would have to be one or the other not both.

User currently offlinedeltaflyertoo From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 1643 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3658 times:

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Reply 12):
I think ORD will be flat for the near future. New York is the center of demand for smaller European destinations and those flights will stay at EWR. UA will probably maneuver to keep themselves slightly ahead of AA at ORD but little more.

  
Agreed

Its been mentioned many times in the press that for now the future plans of the "new United" is going to pretty much evolve around IAH. They have plans to make IAH the biggest and strongest hub in the system to rival what DL has at Atlanta. How this plays out or works long term, who knows, but thats the plan. ORD is a very important city, and as pointed out, they will stay competitive against AA, however, not sure they even have that many slots to work with to get more flights.


User currently offlineTOMMY767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 11
Reply 15, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3628 times:

Quoting deltaflyertoo (Reply 14):
Its been mentioned many times in the press that for now the future plans of the "new United" is going to pretty much evolve around IAH. They have plans to make IAH the biggest and strongest hub in the system to rival what DL has at Atlanta. How this plays out or works long term, who knows, but thats the plan. ORD is a very important city, and as pointed out, they will stay competitive against AA, however, not sure they even have that many slots to work with to get more flights.

Another reason why I just don't get why they moved the HQ to ORD   



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently offlinetimberwolf24 From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 575 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 3593 times:

Quoting deltaflyertoo (Reply 14):
ORD is a very important city, and as pointed out, they will stay competitive against AA, however, not sure they even have that many slots to work with to get more flights.

ORD is not slot controlled.



Living in LA, ORD/MDW will always be home!
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7506 posts, RR: 24
Reply 17, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3550 times:

Quoting deltaflyertoo (Reply 14):
Its been mentioned many times in the press that for now the future plans of the "new United" is going to pretty much evolve around IAH.

IAH will see more flights, but theres no way it will rival what DL has in ATL. It wont get that busy.

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Reply 6):
Why is ORD-ICN such a dog for UA / AA and DFW-ICN would be such a cash cow for AA? ORD-ICN is flown daily by KE and 3x weekly (night flight) while KE flies DFW-ICN 3/4 times a week. Is the market that much bigger from DFW to support 10/11 weekly flights vs ORD service? Would AA drive KE out?

ORD-ICN is a larger market, but 3 carriers is crowded. If anything, I could see OZ stepping it up to daily. That might be the best move. Of course, OZ and UA dont have ATI.

KE is DFW's only Asian carrier and it does well. But most of the DFW-Korea market originates in DFW, not Korea. AA carries a bunch of it over NRT even with KE as an option.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinebcoz From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 368 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3547 times:

Is the terminal infrastructure really there for significant growth on the part of UA at ORD right now?

It's just me, but I'd personally worry about finding some way to get out of the overcrowded embarrassment that is the Concourses E and F UAX ops first.

bcoz


User currently offlineGlobalCabotage From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 602 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3533 times:

And ORD doesn't carry connections?

OZ, if they had ATI with UA and moved the flight to an earlier departure would make sense. The current leave at mindnight only gets O&D and no connections. Get rid of OZ at ORD and let UA fly a daytime flight. This makes more sense to me.


User currently offlineshadez From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 203 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3517 times:

I definitely see FLL returning to ORD. Would not make sense for the new UA to serve IAH,EWR, and CLE and not ORD.

User currently offlineMexicana757 From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 3031 posts, RR: 29
Reply 21, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3506 times:

Quoting timberwolf24 (Reply 16):
ORD is not slot controlled.

  

Correct, with the new runway that came online about two years ago, the slot controls went away. At the moment another runway is under construction, which will later become runway 10C/28C.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7506 posts, RR: 24
Reply 22, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3478 times:

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Reply 19):
And ORD doesn't carry connections?

OZ, if they had ATI with UA and moved the flight to an earlier departure would make sense. The current leave at mindnight only gets O&D and no connections. Get rid of OZ at ORD and let UA fly a daytime flight. This makes more sense to me.

ORD has nonstop flights to NRT, ICN, PEK, PVG, and HKG, but DFW only has NRT and ICN. ORD doesnt need a connecting Asian hub as much as DFW does because even though the market is larger, there are also lots more destinations.

The best thing to do would be for OZ to add more frequency to ORD as opposed to UA jumping on it.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently onlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5316 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3450 times:

ORD-OSL is pushing the CO 757s *hard*. It's about 20 minutes longer than EWR-TXL, which had problems in the winter. The CO 757s are denser than the ex-NW 75As that have run longer routes, and they also have RR engines, which are slightly less efficient than the P&Ws in cruise.

If the new UA wants to devote some PMUA 757s to transatlantic flying, it might work.


User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9508 posts, RR: 52
Reply 24, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 3338 times:

Quoting deltaflyertoo (Reply 14):

Its been mentioned many times in the press that for now the future plans of the "new United" is going to pretty much evolve around IAH. They have plans to make IAH the biggest and strongest hub in the system to rival what DL has at Atlanta. How this plays out or works long term, who knows, but thats the plan. ORD is a very important city, and as pointed out, they will stay competitive against AA, however, not sure they even have that many slots to work with to get more flights.

I think that is more a rumor of the A.net crowd that is under the belief that the merger is being dominated by Continental management and that Continental will be the one controlling the shots. ORD is the second busiest airport in the nation for a reason. It has the same geographical connectivity for domestic operations that IAH has by being in the middle of the country, but has a cachement area 60% larger than Houston. IAH has more potential for growth in Latin America, but that won't come at the expense of the massive domestic operation at ORD.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineGlobalCabotage From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 602 posts, RR: 0
Reply 25, posted (3 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 3325 times:

ORD is not slot controlled! Why does everyone here think ORD is slot controlled? Gate controlled yes (ask VX about this). But slot controlled, no.

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