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A380 Carving New Market In Non Hub-cities  
User currently offlineebbuk From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 17331 times:

Interesting story that I found on the Bloomberg app

According to the article, the super silent A380 is carving out an unexpected new market with direct travel to non-hub cities. Of the 20 destinations served by the flagship aircraft, 6 were never on the predicted hub airports.

full article http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...ler-cities-clamor-for-flights.html

Interesting points
“The A380 was designed as a replacement for the 747, but as it’s deployed we’re finding that the execution is very often different than the forecast,” said Chris Tarry, an independent analyst in London who has followed the industry for almost 30 years. “Airlines need to match capacity with demand, and if you want to move lots of people in one go the A380 does just that.”

AND

“This is operationally more efficient as mounting more flights carries incremental costs for landing, parking, over- flight and air traffic control, as well as for a full set of cabin and technical crew and additional fuel consumption,”

In the article Manchester Airport, in the UK, are hoping for a double A380 service but had always planned for the 787. Certainly it will have the Dreamliner. But when the model is replayed around the world, it sounds like the A380 will be getting more orders.

Think the gamble will come off.

50 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2840 posts, RR: 25
Reply 1, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 17204 times:

Dear ebbuk, thank you for starting a new thread about this article. I also thought it's worth to open a new discussion (the link was also posted on other A 380-threads) as I find this article extremely interesting.

So what could other non-hub-cities for the A 380?
The article mentions some of them: Berlin, Hamburg (the article also mentions Munich but actually I consider Munich as being a hub).


User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 17190 times:

A very inportant part of this article is the exchange of 12 weekly 777 flights to 7 A380 flights on SIN-ZRH.

Quote:
“This is operationally more efficient as mounting more flights carries incremental costs for landing, parking, over- flight and air traffic control, as well as for a full set of cabin and technical crew and additional fuel consumption,” said Nicholas Ionides, a spokesman for the carrier, which is the second-largest in the world by market value.

This shows that the frequency argument against the A380 is often just hot air. Frequency is important on short routes, that people travel rather often, but not so much on longer routes. People don't travel from Switzerland to Singapore (and even further on a connecting flight) every week. This is more the once-a-year holiday flight and a big investment of time anyway, so that a couple of hours don't matter too much. Therefore it is not so important whether they fly in the morning or in the evening. Most important is that the departure and arrival times are convenient, so people don't fly or arrive in the middle of the night. On many long-haul flights (except Europe-US, were you arrive roughly at the same time you leave), the windows for convenient times at both ends aren't that big anyway.

Besides, frequency and bypassing hubs is nice, but it is also more expensive. Not all pax have an unlimited supply of money, even when the company pays the tickets.


User currently offlineJQflightie From Australia, joined Mar 2009, 1010 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 17172 times:

QF only use their 388 from Hubs to other hubs..
SYD-LAX/SIN/LHR
MEL-LAX



Next Trip: PER-DPS-KUL-BKK-HKT-CNX-BKK-SIN-PER
User currently onlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7665 posts, RR: 8
Reply 4, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 17155 times:

So are they confirming that the ability to bypass major hubs and fly more point to point is also a valid strategy, no one ever said that the a/c only would dictate the strategy, a lot of folk assumed and or took that position.
The 787/777/A350 are smaller so airlines may opt to start or attempt more routes but if you can fill a larger a/c with lower frequency go for it, point to point exist along with hubs and that will continue.


User currently onlinedavid_itl From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2001, 7442 posts, RR: 13
Reply 5, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 17063 times:
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MAN has always been predicted by Airbus as a destination but never in medium-sized numbers each day (of the other airlines who ordered it and operate out of MAN, SQ and EY are the ones most likely to use them here in the medium term; though SQ may wish to delink MAN and MUC and just make MAN a 77W non-stop route as cargo is a pretty big player for them out of MAN and EY for no other reason than to match EK's offerings.

I think Airbus were expecting the A380 to be featured at MAN by 2007/2008 based on the original delivery schedule for EK. 2 A380s is easily within the possibility but how quickly depends on 2 things: 1) whether they would be willing to use a 744F to operate MAN-DXB cargo services to make up for the shortfall in cargo capacity if they do go down that route next year and 2) if not doing double daily on the A380 next year how soon the virtual certainty of a 3rd daily flight attracts the same level of loads (and I will say yields granted that was also a motivating factor for EK bringing it in)


User currently offlinetayser From Australia, joined Mar 2008, 1135 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 17039 times:

Quoting JQflightie (Reply 3):
QF only use their 388 from Hubs to other hubs..
SYD-LAX/SIN/LHR
MEL-LAX


and MEL-SIN-LHR

Yes, but the "smaller, high frequency" notion doesn't apply to Qantas either as we're at the ar$e end of the earth (read: middle of nowhere) and it's all about moving large volumes of people, not smaller amounts of people more frequently to and from Australia.


User currently offlinemdword1959 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 16910 times:

On a bit of a side note, entirely by happenstance another journalist working on the aerospace beat recently told me that he was approached by Nicholas Ionides, the SIA spokesman quoted in the article (former Flightglobal reporter), suggesting a story in this vein would be "interesting," his judgment was it wasn't particularly newsworthy...it's always enlightening to learn how particular storylines get germinated in the media.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31420 posts, RR: 85
Reply 8, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 16735 times:
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Quoting Thorben (Reply 2):
This shows that the frequency argument against the A380 is often just hot air.

It also shows the expansion of point-to-point and hub-to-point service that would favor aircraft like the 787 and A350 was not a load of baloney, either. It's just that the A380 can also exploit some of those hub-to-point markets, as well.


User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4964 posts, RR: 40
Reply 9, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 16538 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
It also shows the expansion of point-to-point and hub-to-point service that would favor aircraft like the 787 and A350 was not a load of baloney, either. It's just that the A380 can also exploit some of those hub-to-point markets, as well.


I agree, both philosophies seem to turn into reality. In the A380's case that might be to many of us more of a surprise then in the case of the B787 and A350.  .


User currently offlineebbuk From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 15732 times:

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 1):
So what could other non-hub-cities for the A 380?

I think we could see

Miami
Mumbai
Rio
Lagos or Accra


The article mentions Dusseldorf, Rome and Milan as possible destinations for the future and not forgetting the South East Asia and China


User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 15449 times:

What I find interesting is that the article states that there are more than 70 airports now ready to handle the A380. That is way more than I thought.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
It also shows the expansion of point-to-point and hub-to-point service that would favor aircraft like the 787 and A350 was not a load of baloney, either. It's just that the A380 can also exploit some of those hub-to-point markets, as well.

I believe these are two separate issues, frequency on the same route, and point-to-point vs. hub-to-hub. The 787 was promoted by Boeing as going "point-to-point and bypassing the large hubs". I doubt it'll do much of that in reality. Rather hub-to-point, but not point-to-point. The A380 does mainly hub to hub, having to do with the fact that large destinations are also often large hubs. JED and MAN are probably the only A380 served airports that are not hubs. In the long run, there will be more A380 flights to destinations like these, but it will mainly be a hub-to-hub-carrier. The 787 might have more flights from its airline's hub to points, but few point-to-point flights, were both airports offer little connection. That works only for holiday charters.


User currently onlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7665 posts, RR: 8
Reply 12, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 14856 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 11):
The 787 was promoted by Boeing as going "point-to-point and bypassing the large hubs"

Did they also include the word "allowing", as in allowing airlines to bypass hubs, that does not mean it cannot fly hub to hub, too much absolutes by OEM's who never use these a/c in commercial service, something like the seat pitch/width argument.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 11):
The A380 does mainly hub to hub, having to do with the fact that large destinations are also often large hubs.

In time, when more have been deployed and their purchase cost is lowered, they could make great charter a/c, maybe a legacy with a few could release one or two for monthly charter ops. Charter companies are struggling, that does not mean that their service is not viable.


User currently offlineT8KE0FF From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2009, 419 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 13851 times:

I see BHX in the pipeline. We allready get 2 daily 773's from EK. They have there own business class lounge over here. They will probably swap it for a 1 daily A380 soon!


RJ85 E145 E195 A319 A320 A330 A340 A380 B737 B747 B757 B767 B777 B787 DH4
User currently onlinedavid_itl From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2001, 7442 posts, RR: 13
Reply 14, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 13476 times:
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Quoting T8KE0FF (Reply 13):
They will probably swap it for a 1 daily A380 soon!

The plan, I gather, is for only 1 regional destination as an A380 for the next couple of years and we know where that is; they will also be operating the 2 class version of it to BHX when that time arrives. Don't ask the question why MAN ended up with the 3 class as it would, in the grand scheme of things on this forum, be considered a waste of the aircraft with F class to the sole regional as I'd imagine the BHX area would also generate similar amount of F class traffic that migrates to LHR.


User currently offlinedirectorguy From Egypt, joined Jul 2008, 1708 posts, RR: 11
Reply 15, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 13404 times:

I think that it's no surprise that the A380 is being seen in so many non-hub cities. While traditionally seen as a hub-to-hub aircraft, designed for stuff like LHR-JFK, NRT-LAX, JFK-CDG etc. it's proven itself elsewhere for a bunch of reasons stated above. In many cases, it's all relative. A city may JED would normally warrant a narrowbodied service from Europe, and has few longhaul links. But from a city like Dubai, it's a huge market.
As a side note, the 787, originally marketed as a point-to-point aircraft, will spend years being used on major hub-to-hub and hub-to-point routes before being used on real non-hub p2p routes.


User currently offlinePBOA380FAN From UK - England, joined Aug 2010, 21 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 13282 times:

Are there any Japanese airlines who intend to use the A380 on high density flights within Japan or across to China?

User currently offlineZKCIF From Lithuania, joined Oct 2010, 347 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 13040 times:

We must always consider that all the "lists" were drawn a dozen years ago. Not only small details, but the situation and strategies in general have changed a lot. We do not know what the future will bring. I wouldn't be surprised if Ryanair operated 20 A389s in 2022

User currently offlinebrilondon From Canada, joined Aug 2005, 4416 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 12912 times:

Quoting ZKCIF (Reply 17):
We must always consider that all the "lists" were drawn a dozen years ago. Not only small details, but the situation and strategies in general have changed a lot. We do not know what the future will bring. I wouldn't be surprised if Ryanair operated 20 A389s in 2022

Probably configured in the comfortable high density non-reclining seat 1100 passenger version.



Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
User currently onlinedavid_itl From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2001, 7442 posts, RR: 13
Reply 19, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 11923 times:
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Further to the BHX/A380 scenario, this is what a very trusted source has reminded me and elaborates what I put earlier:

-F/C on all A380 routes is exceeding expectations
-Plans to introduce a 2 class A380 have been put back for 2 years or so
-the 2 class birds wil now have fewer seats to accomodate the upstairs bar (had planned 604 seats but now likely to be around the 575 mark)
-Apart from Manchester, there are no plans to put the A380 into any more regional airports until the 2 class birds come online.

As the 77Ws are ranging in capacity from 420 (or thereabouts) to 442, there's no way BHX will lose a flight with everythnig consolidated onto a single A380.


User currently offlineSSTsomeday From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 1276 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 10591 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 2):
This shows that the frequency argument against the A380 is often just hot air.

That is incorrect.

Quoting ebbuk (Thread starter):
“This is operationally more efficient as mounting more flights carries incremental costs for landing, parking, over- flight and air traffic control, as well as for a full set of cabin and technical crew and additional fuel consumption,”

These expenses are real and noteworthy. However it all hinges on the necessity to FILL the 380, v.s. the two smaller aircraft it may be competeing against on the same route. The two smaller A/C can offer two frequencies instead of one. The choice of an additional frequency would attract more customers to the airline with smaller A/C / greater number of frequencies. Especially high yeild passengers.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 2):
Frequency is important on short routes, that people travel rather often, but not so much on longer routes.

That is correct.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 2):
Most important is that the departure and arrival times are convenient, so people don't fly or arrive in the middle of the night.

Yes on very long routes, this is one of the main selling points of the 380.

But I think the thing we are missing here is the primary reason the 380 WILL go to a lot of secondary hubs. It's because of EK (and any other ailrine that can emulate EK, but I don't think anybody will because of EK's unique geographic position and the burgening markets of India and China.) EK will connect passengers through what will become the largest mega-hub we have ever known, Dubai, and connect them to many, many other hubs and secodnary hubs. So, whereas we may not have expected to see daily VLA service to, let's say, Dusseldorf or Prague or Broom, the reason that we can expect it soon is that those passengers from these smaller centers can connect to so many other places through Dubai. It will be an incredible nexus that has one-stop shopping to almost anywhere, the economy of scale, and the lower operating costs of being based in Dubai.

I don't see any way to compete against this, by the way, barring access restrictions.



I come in peace
User currently offlineLTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13200 posts, RR: 15
Reply 21, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 10322 times:

Another factor as to potential A-380 service to non-hub airports is that some hub airports, like LHR, LAX are near maximum capacity, so it may make sense to offer such 'mega plane' service to large non-hub airports. That could mean with modest frequency yet using an A-380, you could serve non-hub airports directly so one doesn't have to transfer at a hub, with it's inconveience, time loss, more opportunities for delays.

User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25693 posts, RR: 85
Reply 22, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 10287 times:
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Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 20):
It's because of EK (and any other ailrine that can emulate EK, but I don't think anybody will because of EK's unique geographic position and the burgening markets of India and China.) EK will connect passengers through what will become the largest mega-hub we have ever known, Dubai, and connect them to many, many other hubs and secodnary hubs.

I'm not in that number. I use Emirates and the A380 whenever I can, in preference to the other choices, and I haven't been to Dubai for twenty years.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineTravellerPlus From New Zealand, joined Nov 2008, 347 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 10287 times:

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 20):
The choice of an additional frequency would attract more customers to the airline with smaller A/C / greater number of frequencies. Especially high yeild passengers.

Most of these routes are point to hub. The number of onward connections at the hub may be of more importance than the frequency of flights in these markets.

Based on my experience selling travel, I think that for flights over 10 hours, people value a shorter overall journey more than a choice of departure times. The airline with the best connections can get the high yield traveller.



What goes around comes around....unless your luggage is not on the carousel...
User currently onlinegemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5827 posts, RR: 6
Reply 24, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 8497 times:

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 20):
The choice of an additional frequency would attract more customers to the airline with smaller A/C / greater number of frequencies. Especially high yeild passengers.

This is incorrect, in many cases.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 20):
But I think the thing we are missing here is the primary reason the 380 WILL go to a lot of secondary hubs ... EK will connect passengers through what will become the largest mega-hub we have ever known, Dubai, and connect them to many, many other hubs and secodnary hubs

This is certainly a valid point, BUT it is NOT the only reason the A380 will go to secondary hubs and spokes. Sometimes, such as SIN-ZRH (which is a spoke for SQ) it is simply the most economical way to provide the capacity that the airline needs on a given route.

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
25 parapente : I think reply 20 says it all.EK appears to be in a win win situation.They offer hub to hub ( to their hub) and thence to "anywhere".There are restrict
26 babybus : If it means more pensioners and the low paid get the opportunity to see their relatives or to have a holiday then I'm all for it. I see the A380 acti
27 SSTsomeday : I don't see how this does not agree with my thesis. If you use EK but you do not visit Dubai, then you are using them as a transfer airline.
28 tayser : no, just travelling trans-tasman.
29 gemuser : What do you mean by a "transfer" airline? Or Aust/NZ to Asia. EK has at least half a dozen fifth freedom sectors in this part of the world including
30 Revelation : Yes, and as above, SIN-ZRH is another spoke that can justify an A380. Indeed, but the trick is to know when to take your money off the table. PanAm b
31 Mortyman : Depends on what is actually ment by handeling the A380. Both OSL and SVG in Norway have big enough runways and airbridges to handle the A380 and " of
32 Stitch : There does not appear to be any serious interest in using the A380 in such a role. Many Japanese airports have restricted or eliminated four-engine f
33 N14AZ : 400? This a typo, isn't it?
34 lightsaber : This is an interesting subject. For some city pairs, the preferred time is all that can support long haul flits. But some pairs demand an alternate t
35 LipeGIG : We have to take into consideratin that many non-hub cities, are in fact, large markets without hub or cities with strong GDP. Among the 50 largest cit
36 Stitch : NH's domestic 777-200s are configured for 418 seats. A 787-9 cabin is a half-meter shorter than a 777-200 cabin, so accounting for doors and such, I
37 andz : I'm just wondering when we will see an EK 380 to JNB to replace some or all of the 3 daily 773s. The other day AF and LH were parked side by side off-
38 gemuser : Unless it's changed again, (which is possible) QF is due to get 15 B788s as QF Groups first B787s. It's NZ that has only ordered B789s. Gemuser
39 tayser : Yes but not all those 787s are going to be running big international routes that the large aircraft now do - half of them are likely to end up just f
40 cpd : it's interesting that the A380 is audibly quieter than many of the twin engined planes that are allowed, and that a law to reduce airport noise has "
41 HiJazzey : A small correction: Jeddah IS a hub. SV is based there. However it is safe to say very few flying EK DXB-JED will be connecting onwards.
42 Post contains images mariner : If push comes to shove, AKL is a hub city, for Air NZ, but it isn't a hub for Emirates. Not yet, anyway. mariner
43 Post contains images PM : Then you haven't looked since June 2009... In May 2009 ANA ordered 5 more 787s, taking their total to 55, and in June 2009 Qantas cancelled 15, takin
44 Post contains images lightsaber : Thank you for the correction. Man, I'm just getting corrected tonight! Kudos to ANA. That is still an impressive number of 787's for QF. Again, my ma
45 cpd : He's not speaking in absolute terms - it's a saying. It's quieter than you'd expect " general in service" airplanes to be. Compare a 737 or A330 take
46 N14AZ : Thanks for the explanation, to be honest I wasn't aware of this - it's just about 70 seats less than in SQ's A 380s, waow!
47 PM : Didn't Air Inter fly the early A330-300s with 400 seats?
48 Stitch : The TCDS for the A330-300 shows 379 as the maximum passenger capacity with four pairs of Type A exits, so I could see Air Inter running that config.
49 arn777 : I know ARN, CPH and OSL have all gotten the question from TG if they can handle the 380 if TG desides to come with it. CPH cannot at this point as far
50 Mortyman : It is really up to the authorities here in Norway regarding landing the A380 at OSL. When the A380 has been here in the past, the airport has had to
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