Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
OSL-NYC: Too Much Capacity?  
User currently offlineSKAirbus From Norway, joined Oct 2007, 1812 posts, RR: 1
Posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 4848 times:

After looking at other posts on other topics I thought it would be good to discuss this here...

SAS have recently announced a daily rotation OSL-EWR with an A330-300. Continental already operate this route on a twice daily rotation with B757-200 equipment.

However, on the horizon is Norwegian start up airline Feel Air, which plans to introduce an OSL-JFK and ARN-JFK rotation with A330-200 aircraft at some point during the next year.

In addition to this Norwegian is considering starting OSL-NYC flights at some point in the near(ish) future.

A few years ago SAS discontinued the OSL-EWR route due to low loads, leaving the route unserviced until Continental turned up. Now there is the posibility of there being 5 daily flights between OSL and NYC if the above operations are all brought into fruition. This is more than other much larger airports in Europe.

Is this sustainable? Will the new starters now be forced out of the market due to the return of SAS? Will Continental and SAS code-share on this route thus enabling Continental to reduce to one daily rotation?


Next Flights: LCY-DUB (E70), DUB-LHR (319), LHR-PHL (772), PHL-LAX (321), LAX-HNL (752), HNL-LAX (752), LAX-LHR (388)
17 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineshamrock321 From Ireland, joined May 2008, 1612 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 4827 times:

It will be interesting to see what % of people fly just NYC-OSL both airlines have hubs at either ends so are able to feed traffic from a wide number of destinations. The 2 offering just OSL-NYC in the future may have problems but surely CO and SK can manage with a mix of transfer and O&D traffic.

User currently offlineSomeone83 From Norway, joined Sep 2006, 3516 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 4807 times:

Quoting SKAirbus (Thread starter):
However, on the horizon is Norwegian start up airline Feel Air, which plans to introduce an OSL-JFK and ARN-JFK rotation with A330-200 aircraft at some point during the next year.

I highly doubt we'll ever see Feel. They still haven't been able to get the money needed to start IC operations


User currently offlineSKAirbus From Norway, joined Oct 2007, 1812 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 4747 times:

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 2):
I highly doubt we'll ever see Feel. They still haven't been able to get the money needed to start IC operations

I thought they had ensured investment by DNB?? Unless that was just some marketing ploy to try and encourage further investment.

Now that Norwegian is also considering OSL-BKK to compete against Thai, even the possibility of that route being a success is questionable.



Next Flights: LCY-DUB (E70), DUB-LHR (319), LHR-PHL (772), PHL-LAX (321), LAX-HNL (752), HNL-LAX (752), LAX-LHR (388)
User currently offlineSomeone83 From Norway, joined Sep 2006, 3516 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 4738 times:

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 3):
I thought they had ensured investment by DNB

No, they just used DnBNOR Market as a broker to try to find investors, but they weren't able to find enough investors or raise enough capital

DnBNOR themselves have no interest in investing in an start up airline, they won't even give them a loan


User currently offlineSKAirbus From Norway, joined Oct 2007, 1812 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 4708 times:

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 4):
DnBNOR themselves have no interest in investing in an start up airline, they won't even give them a loan

I understand that completely. For a country of only 4.5 million people and a catchment area at Gardermoen of just over one million people, you can't expect them to fill A330s, especially when connecting passengers can't be used.

I wonder if they would succeed if Norwegian used Feel as their long haul arm and fed flights with its 737s?? Could be a good investment opportunity for Norwegian... Feel Air could be a sort of "Norwegian X"  



Next Flights: LCY-DUB (E70), DUB-LHR (319), LHR-PHL (772), PHL-LAX (321), LAX-HNL (752), HNL-LAX (752), LAX-LHR (388)
User currently offlinevadheim From Norway, joined Jul 2000, 625 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 4623 times:

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 5):
I understand that completely. For a country of only 4.5 million people and a catchment area at Gardermoen of just over one million people, you can't expect them to fill A330s, especially when connecting passengers can't be used.

We are actually 4.9 million - soon 5.0 million - at the moment  
Norway: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway#Demography


Oslo Metro is 1.4 million and Eastern Norway 2.5 million.
Oslo: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oslo
Eastern Norway: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Norway


User currently offlineSomeone83 From Norway, joined Sep 2006, 3516 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 4596 times:

The big issue is not to fill the planes in the summer, as the market is large enough for multiple daily flight. Both OD and especially taking connections at both ends in the consideration.

The issue is filling the planes in the winter months, and CO is anyway only flying 2x daily in the summer. The winter schedule would most likely be 1x daily, just like this year


User currently offlinejfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3628 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 4196 times:

SAS moved to EWR with the CO cooperation in the early 90s.

Why are they still there and not at JFK?


User currently offlinejunction From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 778 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 4127 times:

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 8):
SAS moved to EWR with the CO cooperation in the early 90s.

Why are they still there and not at JFK?

CO and SK have a huge codeshare again now.


User currently offlineLarshjort From Niue, joined Dec 2007, 1526 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3945 times:

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 8):
SAS moved to EWR with the CO cooperation in the early 90s.

Why are they still there and not at JFK?

Because of coorporation with CO, thier alliance partner

/Lars



139, 306, 319, 320, 321, 332, 34A, AN2, AT4, AT5, AT7, 733, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 146, AR1, BH2, CN1, CR2, DH1, DH3, DH4,
User currently offlineCO38 From Norway, joined May 2009, 109 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 3753 times:

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 2):
I highly doubt we'll ever see Feel. They still haven't been able to get the money needed to start IC operations
Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 5):
I wonder if they would succeed if Norwegian used Feel as their long haul arm and fed flights with its 737s?? Could be a good investment opportunity for Norwegian... Feel Air could be a sort of "Norwegian X"

This is actually the most likely scenario in my view, although both companies have denied this in the past. But Feel and DY are planning just about the exact same operation, Long Haul Low Cost, A332, bases OSL and ARN with flights to BKK and NYC. DY has also said its Long Haul ops will be a seperate airline (not such a bad idea, if or when their long haul goes down the drain it wont drag their 737 ops with them) so why not team up with Feel and make them their long haul airline to take on SK and CO.
It would be suicide for both Feel and DY not to do so IMO.


User currently offlineSKAirbus From Norway, joined Oct 2007, 1812 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 3640 times:

Quoting CO38 (Reply 11):
It would be suicide for both Feel and DY not to do so IMO.

Quite!

I am just slightly concerned that having three airlines on the NYC market from OSL will be too much. It seems to me that there is only room for one and if the low cost thing works, then SAS and CO might want to withdraw.

I think if there needs to be a long haul route out of Norway it should be SVG-IAH, which could be high-yielding due to the oil business in both regions. Unfortunately the Norwegian government are completely hellbent on having Gardermoen as the only long haul entry into Norway. Very silly in my opinion. Centralisation is idiotic as it can prevent potential regional markets from being explored.



Next Flights: LCY-DUB (E70), DUB-LHR (319), LHR-PHL (772), PHL-LAX (321), LAX-HNL (752), HNL-LAX (752), LAX-LHR (388)
User currently offlineSomeone83 From Norway, joined Sep 2006, 3516 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 3371 times:

Quoting SKAirbus (Reply 12):
I think if there needs to be a long haul route out of Norway it should be SVG-IAH, which could be high-yielding due to the oil business in both regions. Unfortunately the Norwegian government are completely hellbent on having Gardermoen as the only long haul entry into Norway. Very silly in my opinion. Centralisation is idiotic as it can prevent potential regional markets from being explored

Due to the Open-skies agreement, any EU or US airline can start the route between SVG-IAH so don't blame the government here....the problem is the volumes. The yields are great, but the volumes just aren't good enough despite all the oil workers travelling between these cities


User currently offlineMHG From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 796 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 3348 times:

As i see it Feel Air will never get off the ground (unless they make a deal with Norwegian to cooperate very close)

But i believe only Norwegian´s own a/c will operate the long hauls since they do not seem to look for outsourcing.
That would be questionable anyway as Feel Air won´t be able to significant offer lower costs because they would be subject to the same norwegian (labour) environment.

The fact that SK is back on the route is in my opinion just (to try) to prevent too much business going to Norwegian now that it´s clear DY will definately stick to their plans.

I´d be very much surprised if we really would see Feel Air get off the ground.



I miss the sound of rolls royce darts and speys
User currently offlineSurfandSnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2908 posts, RR: 31
Reply 15, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 3285 times:

I think the problem here is that you are looking at the OSL-NYC market by itself, when we really should be looking at the U.S.-Norway market as a whole since these are the only year-round links between the two countries (US does fly PHL-OSL seasonally, but I don't see it going year-round anytime soon). Remember this isn't just Norwegians headed to see Times Square and the Statue of Liberty, it's Norwegians visiting American friends and relatives everywhere, or those checking out Disney World, Caribbean cruises, Beverly Hills, etc. too. It isn't just New Yorkers going to visit Norway, but Americans/Canadians from all over going to the pristine country to see its fjords and natural beauty. Unlike most other European capitals, OSL really only has NYC service, whereas many others also are linked to ORD, ATL, IAD, etc.

Yes SK did cut their OSL-EWR flight in the early 2000s, but that was right around the time of 9/11 and SK's acute financial problems. Then the market was left with no service, but so were other major sectors like NYC-BER. I imagine CO/UA could ultimately consolidate flights (1x daily 764, for example) and/or codeshare with SK to eliminate redundant frequencies if both these Norwegian carriers start flying the route. Everyone thought the LAX-SYD market could never support four carriers (UA/QF/VA/DL) and yet here we are a couple years later with all of that additional service still intact. The U.S.-Norway market could be stimulated accordingly, especially if DY is one of the first LCCs in the transatlantic market! I can only imagine how popular those $400 r/t fares to Europe would be!



Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
User currently offlineSchweigend From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 639 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 3201 times:

Quoting SKAirbus (Thread starter):

A few years ago SAS discontinued the OSL-EWR route due to low loads, leaving the route unserviced until Continental turned up. Now there is the posibility of there being 5 daily flights between OSL and NYC if the above operations are all brought into fruition. This is more than other much larger airports in Europe.

Is this sustainable? Will the new starters now be forced out of the market due to the return of SAS? Will Continental and SAS code-share on this route thus enabling Continental to reduce to one daily rotation?
Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 15):

I think the problem here is that you are looking at the OSL-NYC market by itself, when we really should be looking at the U.S.-Norway market as a whole

O&D NYC traffic is one thing -- the connection possibilities ex-EWR matter most. CO/UA/SK will be siphoning off traffic that now connects elsewhere.

Quoting junction (Reply 9):
CO and SK have a huge codeshare again now.

It is nice to see things come full-circle. For those who don't remember, CO and SK were once friendly partners in the early 90s.


User currently offlinekiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8632 posts, RR: 13
Reply 17, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 3183 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Schweigend (Reply 16):
For those who don't remember, CO and SK were once friendly partners in the early 90s.

More than friendly partners , SK actually owned a chunk of CO ( which is why SK moved their flights from JFK to EWR in the first place ) .

Actually , now that I think about it , 2 of the 5 founding *A members , SK and AC, have had stakes in CO in the past , guess it proves that CO was always fated to end up in *A .



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
DEN-BOI - TOO Much Capacity! F9, QX, UA posted Sun Oct 6 2002 18:18:20 by BA
Don´t You Think There Are Too Much NYC-LON Flights posted Tue May 15 2001 05:20:18 by TOMASKEMPNER
LAX - SYD, Too Much/too Little? posted Wed Mar 3 2010 18:09:08 by boeingfever777
Jim Albaugh - Boeing Outsourced Too Much On 787 posted Tue Mar 2 2010 11:14:32 by Stitch
Do You Think Sully Received Too Much Praise? posted Wed Jan 13 2010 20:19:28 by C5LOAD
LHR-CAI - Why So Much Capacity? posted Wed Oct 14 2009 13:34:27 by Noelg
Pilot Fatigue Is Like 'having Too Much To Drink? posted Fri May 15 2009 06:40:32 by OffshoreAir
Star Alliance Becoming Too Much? posted Sat Jul 26 2008 22:41:47 by 1821
Are Leasing Companies Making Too Much Money? posted Thu Apr 17 2008 20:37:48 by Boeingluvr
Do Wall Street Analysts Have Too Much Influence? posted Fri Apr 11 2008 02:04:27 by EA CO AS