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Southwest CEO Wants 737 Re-engined  
User currently offlinecosmofly From United States of America, joined May 2009, 649 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 26197 times:

http://blog.seattlepi.com/aerospace/archives/226481.asp#comments

This is curve ball for Boeing to hit. So 737NG+ is not good enough?

WN CEO is also skeptical about Boeing's ability to come up with a new 737 in 2020 and will look at other options if there is no NEO.

183 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5396 posts, RR: 30
Reply 1, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 25594 times:

This comes at an especially interesting time since WN is looking at the -800. What happens if neither Airbus or Boeing does an NEO?


What the...?
User currently onlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15709 posts, RR: 26
Reply 2, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 25526 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 1):
What happens if neither Airbus or Boeing does an NEO?

Business as usual probably. And I think that at this point, it is a definite possibility. The longer the CSeries order book remains dormant, the longer the re-engined 737 and A320 remain dormant.

Quoting cosmofly (Thread starter):
WN CEO is also skeptical about Boeing's ability to come up with a new 737 in 2020

Which is a bit odd considering that I heard that WN was among the airlines waiting impatiently for the 737 replacement. Maybe they just don't want to wait, maybe they think another oil spike is coming, or maybe they think that a replacement 737 is ready yet. Too bad we will probably never find out for sure.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineBooDog From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 257 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 25330 times:

I really don't see what kind of debate we can have about this. Boeing will give Southwest WHATEVER they want. Boeing isn't going to lose Southwest's multiple multi-billion dollar orders to Airbus over a re-engine.


B1B - best looking aircraft ever.
User currently offlinebrons2 From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3007 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 25307 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 1):
What happens if neither Airbus or Boeing does an NEO?

WN buys the MS-21 or C919?



Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19365 posts, RR: 58
Reply 5, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 25288 times:

Quoting BooDog (Reply 3):
I really don't see what kind of debate we can have about this. Boeing will give Southwest WHATEVER they want.

Not if they can't give it.


User currently offlinemrskyguy From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1214 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 25249 times:

Quoting BooDog (Reply 3):
I really don't see what kind of debate we can have about this. Boeing will give Southwest WHATEVER they want. Boeing isn't going to lose Southwest's multiple multi-billion dollar orders to Airbus over a re-engine.

I think we're beginning to see a "new" Southwest, where everything you read about in 'Nuts!' is steadily being retired in favor of growth in to areas where WN previously avoided. Let's not forget that WN tried pretty stinking hard to grab Frontier. Make no mistake, WN will fly the jet that profits them the best.



"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee." -- Gunter's 2nd Law of Air
User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 48
Reply 7, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 25187 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 2):
The longer the CSeries order book remains dormant, the longer the re-engined 737 and A320 remain dormant.

Why not order some CS300 for delivery in 2016 to get Boeing to reengine. If Boeing does reengine, then Southwest could choose to remain all Boeing by selling the CS300 to another carrier or a leasing company.


User currently offlinerheinwaldner From Switzerland, joined Jan 2008, 2213 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 25167 times:

Another NEO interested airline.

Some folks tried to convince me that the NEO would not be interesting for the airlines.


User currently onlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15709 posts, RR: 26
Reply 9, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 25164 times:

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 7):

I suppose they could, but Boeing is already going to be listening closely to what WN says they need. And considering the numbers involved, WN could even possibly get a variant customized to some extent.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineXT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3390 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 25098 times:

Quoting mrskyguy (Reply 6):
Let's not forget that WN tried pretty stinking hard to grab Frontier

Frontier had massive overlap with WN's route network and had a firesale pricetag. WN would have bid even more but the judge refusing to allow time for the unions to come to a merger agreement made raising the offer pointless.


User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19365 posts, RR: 58
Reply 11, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 25107 times:

It comes down to this: Boeing CAN re-engine the 737, but not with a significantly larger-diameter engine.

I think the best thing for Boeing to do at this point would be to start to develop a new NB aircraft with enough built-in design flexibility that it could handle a future re-engine.

The NB aircraft would probably be next-gen CFRP. It might be the 7-abreast design they patented. It should have long enough gear to allow for future engine upgrades. Whether it will be all-electric vs. bleed-based is unclear; it seems as if Airbus felt that all-electric did not have enough advantages to be worth it on the A350. Whether it would be any use on a short-range aircraft is beyond my guess.

The A320 can handle a major re-engine (including a much larger fan) without much structural change other than strengthening. There's oodles of clearance under the wings. Any 737RS should be made with similar capabilities.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5396 posts, RR: 30
Reply 12, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 24885 times:

One thing WN hasn't mentioned is how much more they are willing to pay for an NEO. Airbus has said an NEO 320 will cost a premium of 5-8 million Euros. An NEO 737 would probably cost at least that much.

The plot thickens...



What the...?
User currently offlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12361 posts, RR: 47
Reply 13, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 24219 times:
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Quoting BooDog (Reply 3):
Boeing will give Southwest WHATEVER they want.



I'm going to swim against a popular tide here. I believe WN is not quite the all-mighty customer that some here think.

It wasn't that long ago that WN were demanding an all-new 737 replacement. If they want that from Boeing, it looks like they'll be waiting about another 10 years. I suspect in $ terms EK is probably as big a Boeing customer as WN, yet their demands for a larger 748i fell on deaf ears.

So Boeing is certainly not about satisfying the demands of just one of its customers. However big that customer is.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlinesimairlinenet From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 911 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 23732 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 2):
Which is a bit odd considering that I heard that WN was among the airlines waiting impatiently for the 737 replacement.

Yes. Comments by their COO four months ago (I was present in the room, though Boeing was not): http://www.atwonline.com/aircraft-en...pushes-narrowbody-replacement-0624


User currently offlinemd80fanatic From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 2660 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 22997 times:

Oh BOY! This is shaping up nicely for the 717.

Give the guy a chance to get up and running smoothy with the 717, and he'll have his new engines, albeit NOT on a 737.
One tiny step closer to having the tidal wave of influence which is SouthWest politely ask Boeing to start a new production line.   


User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 959 posts, RR: 51
Reply 16, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 22876 times:

Quoting brons2 (Reply 4):
WN buys the MS-21 or C919?

Zero chance they will be the guinea pigs for aircraft from OEMs with no record of technical support, logistics, etc. Bombardier can at least do that, although I still put the odds of a C-Series order at 1:100.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 11):
It comes down to this: Boeing CAN re-engine the 737, but not with a significantly larger-diameter engine.

The LEAP-X will fit on the 737NG unmodified.


User currently offlineJAAlbert From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1548 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 22767 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 13):
So Boeing is certainly not about satisfying the demands of just one of its customers. However big that customer is.

It could be that Boeing can't satisfy the demands of WN and others with current technology. The article doesn't state what kind of efficiencies WN is expecting, but my understanding from the Airbus NEO debate is that many believe the cost to strengthen the wing and landing gear on the 320 would cost more than the modest benefits the new engine will bring. I imagine Boeing would have to strengthen the wing and landing gear to accomodate a heavier engine AND figure out how to put the larger engine under such a low wing.

Recent articles indicate that Airbus is having trouble scrounging up the engineers necessary to work on the NEO with its 380, 350 and 400 projects still in development. Boeing could be facing the same constraints with its 787 and 747-8 programs.


User currently offlineGarpd From UK - Scotland, joined Aug 2005, 2608 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 22721 times:

It's interesting how so many think WN have Boeing by the short and curlies and the latte will do anything to please WN.

This simply is not the case.
Yes WN have an all 737 fleet. But so did easyJet. They then got the deal of the century from Airbus and ditched Boeing in the blink of an eye.
Boeing are clever enough to know that there is no true loyalty when it comes to an airline buying aircraft.
When it comes to models that so closely match either other as the A320 and 737 do, the decision usually rides on the the price tag and perks.

WN's future order to replace their older aircraft will ride on who can deliver the goods for the lowest price with the most perks.



arpdesign.wordpress.com
User currently offlineKarlB737 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3091 posts, RR: 10
Reply 19, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 22182 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 13):
It wasn't that long ago that WN were demanding an all-new 737 replacement. If they want that from Boeing, it looks like they'll be waiting about another 10 years.

I wouldn't bet on it. I think the risk of dropping the ball and losing customers is too great to take that chance.

Courtesy: USA Today

Boeing Hopes To Decide On 737 Successor 'Within Several Months'

http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/p...10/boeing-737-replacement/129053/1

Also:

Boeing Says 'Major Makeover' Awaits Fliers On New 737s

http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/p...0/boeing-737-sky-interior/129081/1

[Edited 2010-10-29 07:42:04]

User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6812 posts, RR: 46
Reply 20, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 21937 times:

Quoting Garpd (Reply 18):
WN's future order to replace their older aircraft will ride on who can deliver the goods for the lowest price with the most perks.

This is true to some extent; but for an airline with as large a fleet as WN and has only flown one type the costs of adding another type are quite large. However, if they are not being served by their manufacturer of choice they have a substantial incentive to incur this cost. If Boeing is unresponsive to WN, and Airbus is willing to do what they want, then it would behoove WN to add a subfleet of A320's. From then on they can buy from whichever manufacturer offers them the best deal. Boeing is very well aware of this, and I am convinced do not want WN to take that step, and hence will do all they can to keep WN happy. Also, if WN is unhappy with Boeing then chances are all of their other narrowbody customers will be as well. If Airbus goes with the NEO, Boeing will have to either do the same or launch a new aircraft; simple as that. If neither do anything, the only realistic option for WN would be the C-series, which won't be available for several years, and a significantly smaller version at that. Boeing right now is balancing what Airbus is doing with the C-series and their own capabilities, with an eye on the horizon for the C-919 and the MS-21. The latter two are probably at least a decade from being threats, and the MS-21 will probably never be because of Russian government corruption. But Boeing is not going to go down without a fight, and they cannot surrender the narrowbody market. Right now they have the best selling narrowbody, and I expect that they will do what they need to do to keep that position. The fact that everybody else is uncertain is what is delaying their decision.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30523 posts, RR: 84
Reply 21, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 21820 times:
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Quoting scbriml (Reply 13):
I suspect in $ terms EK is probably as big a Boeing customer as WN, yet their demands for a larger 748i fell on deaf ears.

EK wanted the smaller 747-8, actually, because they wanted 8300nm of range. It fell on "deaf ears" because EK was never serious about buying it and Boeing knew it, even though it would meet EK's needs for more payload and passenger lift to LAX/SFO then the 777-300ER currently offers. Instead, EK now wants a better 777-300ER for that mission until traffic growth and airframe improvements allow the A380-800 to take over the route.


I do not believe Airbus can win WN, because to do so would be too costly. It's more than just airframe price - Airbus would also have to provide a lower cost on training for thousands of pilots and deals on all the ancillaries an active fleet of 500+ aircraft would need. And that is where the profit is really made on an airframe order. So Airbus would have to offer an A320 NEO at a price not-insignificantly higher than Boeing would offer the current 737NG. And then there is the disruption of WN operations as they transition from a 500-frame 737 fleet to a 500-frame A320 fleet. The cost of that can't be low.   

That of course does not mean Boeing can tell WN to suck eggs and keep buying 737NGs, but it does mean that for WN a 737NGNEO would be sufficient to stay with Boeing even if the LEAP-X (and PW1x00G) is (are) not as effective as they would be on the A320NEO.


User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12128 posts, RR: 52
Reply 22, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 21788 times:

Quoting mrskyguy (Reply 6):
Make no mistake, WN will fly the jet that profits them the best.

Which is the B-737NG for them.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 11):
The A320 can handle a major re-engine (including a much larger fan) without much structural change other than strengthening. There's oodles of clearance under the wings.

There would be other engineering changes needed to reengine the A-32X series, or any airplane. The taller gear on the A-32X does give it an advantage, but you still need to modify or design all new tail flight controls and surfaces, as well as new engine struts and wing attachments. Plus there will need to be flap, leading edge slat, and wing flight controlled surfaces to be changed. Wing bending moments and other changes may be needed, which can include a new designed or modified wing spar and possibly winglets. None of what I mentioned includes hydraulic, electrical, or bleed air changes that might be needed. So a $5B to $7B engineering cost is not that far fetched.


User currently offlinekeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 21302 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 11):
It comes down to this: Boeing CAN re-engine the 737, but not with a significantly larger-diameter engine.

It would be expensive and Boeing doesn't feel like it, but if some other CEO are clear about what they want & competitors move on..

http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z160/keesje_pics/Radical4Bill737Upgrade737-900XG.jpg
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/tech_ops/read.main/285819/

I think the C919 are a long short and have too many uncertainties. Bombardier on the other hand seem to have some cards, a CS300 and / or CS500 would offer the right capacity and a substantial more efficient western platform. Maybe they would need some further back up (e.g. a big US lease company, UTC, an Aerospace OEM..) to make Southwest move..



User currently offlinemotech722 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 211 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 21224 times:

I am always amazed at how some people can actually believe that Boeing will give Southwest WHATEVER they want. Statements like this show how narrow-minded people really are. Come on, Southwest is just one airline in the world, heck, it is but one airline in the US. It is not the dominant customer of Boeing by any means, so if Southwest demands that the plane be re-engined, Boeing can say no.

Look at it this way, if Boeing says no and Southwest does go to another manufacturer, then Boeing has a ton of other cutomers out there to continue to do business with. Southwest leaving Boeing will not mean bankruptcy for Boeing, in many ways it will mean more potential business opportunities for Boeing because with Southwest off the line, other airlines will be able to get aircraft sooner. On the flip side, say SWA would go to Airbus, then that line gets bogged down.

These multi-billion dollar orders can be both good and bad. IIRC, that is one reason Frontier went with an all-Airbus fleet, because at the time it could not get new 737s fast enough.

Southwest is a large airline, but not the biggest Boeing customer by any means.


25 tistpaa727 : Since we are all throwing pot shots in the dark, I thought I'd jump in with this off the wall idea. Boeing sees a 737NEO as a not as profitable ventur
26 SEPilot : You are ignoring the fact that if WN is unhappy, chances are so are the rest of Boeing's customers. WN is very important to Boeing not only because t
27 frmrCapCadet : My perreniel question: Economics: my uninformed guesses: Take Keesje's $4 billion upgrade Assume that Boeing would want to cover that with five years
28 Post contains images convairnut : How funny are you?!
29 Post contains links and images Garpd : Personally, I think WN will hold out for a new NB. I predict the 737 replacement will look pretty close to the 787 using the same construction techniq
30 Post contains links and images connies4ever : Some commentators seem to beleive that the Zhuhai Airshow will resolve some of the orderbook uncertainty. http://www.wingsmagazine.com/content/view/4
31 BMI727 : I think it might be Southwest wanting something rather than nothing. I think that Southwest and a lot of other customers probably would rather have a
32 okie : I have been following this for a while, I think for sure Boeing is trying to force Airbus to NEO route. That gives B an extra couple years to bring t
33 LAXDESI : Southwest would need to eventually replace Airtran's 717(the oldest is about 12 years old), say in 6-10 years. The CS300 should make an excellent repl
34 SEPilot : I doubt it; all operators want aircraft that are cheap to operate and dependable. I see nothing special in WN's requirements that other airlines woul
35 JoeCanuck : Where does the 4 billion dollar figure come from? Any sources or is this speculation? BBD hasn't ever officially mentioned a CS500. They have their h
36 davs5032 : I agree with this, and frankly I would not be surprised if it happened. Not only is WN going to have to replace the 717 down the line, but also their
37 Post contains images keesje : {checkmark A quick & dirty comparison I made last yr. I'm not sure how frozen the spec of the CS300 is. Maybe they could add 2 rows..
38 XT6Wagon : Comes straight out of a certain posters bias. Boeing has said they don't need to do any extensive mods. The engine makers will spend THIER money to e
39 DfwRevolution : To overcome the incumbent advantage of the ~600 aircraft 737 fleet WN will soon operate, Bombradier would need an overwhelmingly superior airplane. I
40 reality : According to seatguru, the WN 737-300 with 137 seats has 32-33" pitch, not the 31-32" indicated in your drawing.
41 Post contains images keesje : Rolls Royce seems to agree with you. I too think Airbus / Boeing can't offer a heavy, 3000NM, container and 230 seat capable shrink 150 seat platform
42 Garpd : What world are you living in? 130-150 seat configured 737s make up a huge chunk of the total world fleet!![Edited 2010-10-29 14:09:41]
43 Post contains links and images scbriml : Yes, my bad, I misremembered. Regardless, EK's requirements were ignored. Where do you get that number from? http://www.centreforaviation.com/new...t
44 SEPilot : I am not talking about which model 737; I am talking about things like fuel burn, cost, and maintenance requirements. Basically all of the airlines w
45 davs5032 : I guess we're going to knitpick here....Okay, when I said 150-, I was thinking 737-7 and up. So, what is that, 135-140 or something. You got me there
46 elbandgeek : I think how WN likes or dislikes the 717 after the merger could factor ino the nextgen equation purely by virture of their single type philosophy. If
47 Garpd : It would be stupid not to offer something. The 600 may not have sold in vast numbers, but it serves a purpose for some customers.
48 WarpSpeed : Yet, WN sticks it to most other operators day-in, day-out. Yes, as of today, but where is the sweet-spot of the market headed? The "smaller" 150-210
49 Post contains images Stitch : P&W appear to disagree with you. I imagine EK's refusal to actually place an order for the original model, whereas LH was willing to order 20 (+2
50 panais : Why is it that Airbus or Boeing need to create a narrowbody at 230 seats? There is a family on each companies products that are selling well. If we ta
51 BMI727 : They don't. 210 seats in a one-class configuration is probably good enough for the largest variant. In my estimation, the baseline version should be
52 328JET : Interesting to see how Boeing will react. In my eyes, they cannot ignore the demand of Southwest. Otherwise southwest will buy some CS in the beginnin
53 scbriml : Where, domestic US? What does that prove, other than their legacy competitors are inefficient, money-eating machines?
54 Post contains images parapente : The odd thing is - to me -what exactly is the Southwest demand? They clearly have accepted that the timing for an all new aircraft that incorporates a
55 connies4ever : What else would P&W say ? "No, we won't even consider mounting our GTF on a 737NEO ?" But, the PW1521G/1524G model specified for the CSeries come
56 Post contains links keesje : Recently Boeing told the press they got mixed signals from the industry on a 737 re-engining. Obviously SW thought they would help them out getting a
57 Revelation : Doing this guarantees it'll be heavier than it needs to be, since the trend for engines is to get heavier with time. Manufacturers are focusing on ma
58 Stitch : They buy enough aircraft that the concerns other operators have - re-sale values and maintenance costs - might not matter to them. They have 350 737-
59 connies4ever : OK. That's interesting information that I had not seen previously. A question arises then with a high-bypass turbofan mounted flush on the wing -- wh
60 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : I have yet to see an option that is not "dangerous" for someone. Whether it be the hit to the resale values if a NEO is announced, the hit to Boeing
61 DfwRevolution : It's not cut-throat. No one buys 100-130 seaters and there is no serious competition to the A319/73G in the 130-150 seat market. The CS300 has gone n
62 keesje : - Everyone do ~ nothing. Bombardiers preferred option I guess. - Boeing also doing a more radical upgrade. Most likely IMO. Is Southwest "every other
63 fridgmus : I'm not in the Aviation industry, but what kind of asserts and time would it take Boeing to design a 737 replacement like this and of course would it
64 PlanesNTrains : As an example: EK with the A380 is not "every other customer. WN and the 737 is different. They account for, what....8% of 737 deliveries over the ye
65 frmrCapCadet : Parapente - Good post. This all is much more a matter of economics than it is technology. I still keep hoping some knowledgable poster will break down
66 milesrich : Not going to happen, from what I understand, the tooling was destroyed. And I don't look for Boeing to ever build an aircraft again with a T-Tail des
67 GCT64 : Is it just me, or does this sound like a bit of a re-run of the United-Boeing discussion that led to the, very surprising, decision of United to order
68 Stitch : Well the A320 offered trans-continental performance, which the 737 Classic could not. The A320-100 was also launched four years after the 737-300, whi
69 SEPilot : The only reason why Boeing (or Airbus) would make a rear-engined aircraft would be if they went open rotor. With a fanjet the disadvantages of more s
70 Aesma : Then why is it not already announced ? Either because it doesn't cost nothing to Boeing, or that it would cost too much for the engines manufacturers
71 Stitch : Well to be fair, I don't recall CFM announcing a deal to fit LEAP-X on the A320, nor Pratt with the PurePower 1000. Again, it i's just "assumed" they
72 SEPilot : And this is because neither manufacturer is sure yet whether the upgrade will be worth the price, and whether they can recoup their investment. Once
73 Aesma : XT6Wagon is saying that the re-engine would be paid by the engine manufacturers, which is what I'm not agreeing with. Of course they'll invest to make
74 Stitch : Well yes, there will be modifications necessary to the airframe (wings) to accomodate the new engines. But what I believe XT6Wagon is saying is that b
75 SEPilot : It doesn't matter who pays for the design work; in the end, the money must be recouped by the sale of the aircraft. If it is not, then whoever put up
76 wah64d : They could fit a significantly larger diameter engine if they re-designed the landing gear, wing and centre wing box but as you say, they may as well
77 wah64d : A larger 748i would have been in A380 territory and as such, would not have been remotely competitive.
78 keesje : It seems unlikely Southwest would order the A320 NEO. They probably want to replace the classics in this decade. A 737 Neo would offer commonality wit
79 JoeCanuck : Neither Boeing nor Airbus has announced a re-engine program yet, and neither have ruled it out. It is obviously not a sure thing for either. You are
80 wah64d : I agree completely. I think WN are best placed to weather a higher list price though. Maximum sectors per aircraft = lowest exposure to higher cost v
81 LAXDESI : I wonder if Boeing has thought about buying BBD. It sure would help to have the 5-abreast Cseries platform in its portfolio to offer WN and other cus
82 BMI727 : Of course, Boeing has already gone down that road once, and considering the lack of orders the CSeries is getting, I would have to think that Boeing
83 SEPilot : Didn't BBD buy the aircraft portion of their business from Boeing, who rescued deHavilland and then sold them to BBD? I doubt that they would want to
84 wah64d : In the same manner as Airbus had to drop the original A350, Boeing will suffer the same fate on their next narrowbody if my predictions are correct.
85 Post contains images Stitch : I suppose it depends on how bad that "technical inferiority" is. I just don't buy the Airbus Aficionadoes claims that the A320NEO is going to offer do
86 BMI727 : Well, how bad could it be is Southwest wants it? But if the customers are still saying that they'd rather have a new plane and are willing to pay for
87 XT6Wagon : The business case needs to be made for both sides. Boeing and Airbus need to sell airlines that its a better plane for the airlines in addition to pr
88 JoeCanuck : I think it will be interesting how WN deals with a multi model fleet. Now that they've broken the mold and added the 717 to the -700 fleet, they might
89 Dash9 : Only the DHC division comes from Boeing. BBD aerospace made 80%+ of their revenue of the last 10 years from aircrafts that were 'inherited' from Cana
90 328JET : Oh no, not that low sales argument against the CS again... Wait another year or maybe 18 month and the CS will have a nice order backlog. There is no
91 BMI727 : Well, you can't say it's not true. The CSeries is sitting on 90 orders, while the 737 netted another 50 last week. I'll admit that it is probably a b
92 Post contains images 328JET : I wouldn´t say so, as in this case this thread would not exist... Southwest is increasing pressure as others are doing. And by the way: The CS has o
93 Stitch : It has also surpassed the A318 in orders. But it's only secured 6% of the order book of the A319 and 737-700.
94 328JET : Correct! And the EIS is years away. So i am not worried about the number of ordered aircrafts so far.
95 BMI727 : You can bet that if the CSeries had a few hundred launch orders the A320 NEO and whatever Boeing is going to offer would already be launched. And the
96 Post contains images flyorski : I want to see more orders from LH for the C-Series, and also a large order from F9.. and since I am dreaming, I might as well throw in an order from W
97 Post contains images connies4ever : You already have your wish, as Republic Airways Holdings owns F9, and has ordered 40+40 CSeries. From elsewhere on A.net I believe the competition ca
98 SEPilot : I did not realize that; thanks for the info. It does change the picture about whether or not Boeing would be interested in buying them; but I still d
99 JoeCanuck : I think airlines are finally getting a bit gunshy about ordering brand new planes. Better late than never isn't really cutting it anymore. I think BBD
100 BMI727 : Those are also pretty good reasons to not launch re-engined aircraft at the moment. Of course they need to consider their options, but as of now they
101 Post contains images flyorski : Great, thanks very much for that information! I somehow totally missed that, however I am really glad that the C-Series will fly in F9 colors.
102 DocLightning : I agree, but it is Boeing's order to lose. And if they don't have a product that satisfies Kelly and friends, then they *will* lose it. Boeing might
103 Stitch : All this talk about Boeing losing WN or losing FR... What about Airbus losing U2 by "only" offering them an A320NEO while Boeing offers them a new pla
104 Aesma : Airbus is not contemplating NEO versus new plane like Boeing is. It would be NEO and then a few years later new plane.
105 SEPilot : This is missing the point; if Boeing loses WN it will be because the 737 will not be competitive with whatever else is available within a reasonable
106 parapente : "Due to the tremendous stakes involved, and the uncertainties, it is not an easy decision. That is why they are taking all the time they can to make i
107 Post contains links Lumberton : Air Insight's latest has some "insight" into this. http://airinsight.wordpress.com/2010...01/southwest-boeing-some-thoughts/
108 keesje : I don't think it is likely. The CS300 looks better though. Mike van de Ven : This led to talking about the CSeries which he called “an interesting
109 planemaker : The CS500 was always pie-in-the-sky but, now, how can you continue to push the CS500 when you know that BBD can't fund the program with the burden of
110 Stitch : I wonder how long it takes to turnaround a CS300 compared to a 73G. The CS300 is four meters longer, but one side only needs to seat two per row, vers
111 XT6Wagon : only possible way I can see it working is if the CS300 has as much bin space per row as the current 737 so that they can save time on overhead bin te
112 Post contains links keesje : . You are a knowledgeable poster yet you've repeated this fanatsy of yours several times. I really don't understand how you can even remotely imagine
113 planemaker : Your last post has nothing to do with the errors pointed out in your posts 23 & 37.
114 JoeCanuck : I still don't see the potential benefits or consequences much different for either Airbus or Boeing. Perhaps it would cost a bit more for Boeing to p
115 Post contains links and images keesje : You found some numbers that are 1 or 2 off ?! Congratulations! Hope you'll catch on better valuing the big lines! I think the gear itself isn't the p
116 JoeCanuck : Boeing has already said they probably wouldn't have to touch the main gear, just the nose gear...and we're only talking a few inches anyway. Regardle
117 planemaker : Besides the fact that the WN's seat pitch is easy to find out... I actually pointed out your error the first time you posted your pretty picture on a
118 parapente : Quote *" They are looking for 20% minimum improvement in costs". They can "look" as much as they want - but they ain't going to get 20% improvements -
119 keesje : distraction from your obvious new insight on Southwest and the CSeries.. Southwest has the 737-300, 737-500, 737-700, B717-200, 737-700 (AirTran cock
120 sirtoby : Forget to think about an OR in the 2020 timeframe - not before 2025, or never, which is more probable.
121 Post contains links and images scbriml : Less than a year ago they still had at least one with double-bogies. View Large View MediumPhoto © Steve Brimley
122 SEPilot : All of which, except for the 717, can be flown with the same type rating, and serviced by the same mechanics. Many of the spares will also be the sam
123 Revelation : It reminds me of a quote: Some folks try to stay in the realm of facts, others less so.
124 parapente : Reply 120 Forget to think about an OR in the 2020 timeframe - not before 2025, or never, which is more probable. OK.2025 or later/never. If so then wh
125 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : Or, to put it another way, 737, 737, 737, 717, 737, and 737. How many -300's, -500's, and 717's are we talking about here? Assuming that the CS300 EI
126 Post contains images keesje : Apparently Southwest thinks the 737NG Plus isn't cutting it and the CSeries is an option. At least CEO Kelly says so. Writing that down a month ago wo
127 PlanesNTrains : Which you keep pointing out - I think we get it. It doesn't mean anything more or less than what he said. Is a CSeries order imminent? Almost certain
128 Revelation : When Gallois and Enders say they can't find engineers to do the A320 NEO, it's just public posturing to get better deals out of their subcontractors.
129 Post contains images keesje : Hi, I see this a little different. Boeing has been looking at 737 replacement/ re-engining more then 2 years, talking to everybody, doing studies etc
130 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : Apparently. 1. I'm not sure that "automatically dismiss" is a fair assessment of those who see the illogical approach of throwing away a proven busin
131 LAXDESI : How about a joint venture between Boeing and BBD on the 5-abreast Cseries that will be type rated with Boeing 6-abreast NBs. Boeing could get BBD to r
132 PlanesNTrains : I don't know if that would make sense or not, but I think one big problem is that Boeing needs that to happen today while BBD wouldn't want to limit
133 Post contains links Revelation : Facts are stubborn things. Re-engining will not be the "substantial improvement" that WN says it needs. No where have I read Kelley say that "the CSe
134 keesje : I think this time is very different then 2 years ago; - Southwest isn't Southwest anymore. They operate a large number of 717s, have a hub in Atlanta
135 jdevora : I think that you are probably right, but IIRC Michael_O'Leary said once that around 50 planes is about the number that you have nearly all the benefi
136 LAXDESI : My calculations suggest that 5-abreast platform is not going to be competitive against 6-abreast platform beyond 135-140 seats(single class), for equ
137 Post contains images PlanesNTrains : First of all, Southwest IS Southwest. That they evolve doesn't make them any less WN, anymore than the 737-100 to 737-300 to 737-700 to 737-700RE mak
138 BMI727 : Yeah, I'm not sure why so many seem to be assuming that the 717s will be a permanent part of the fleet. Maybe I missed the press release. They certai
139 JoeCanuck : Airbus hasn't announced the NEO yet so we really don't know what efficiency gains will be promised for the old competitor so for now, that's a non is
140 planemaker : Good quote... and your comment so true. Funny!! All these points have been discussed before on these threads and he is well aware of the facts but ig
141 tdscanuck : Umm...try 30 years (probably more). 39, actually, but they didn't place anything that would be considered a large order until 1984. Not to say they'r
142 md80fanatic : Well because it's a kick a** aircraft with proven profit potential, especially in the hands of a well-oiled airline like WN. Sure the production line
143 SEPilot : If the 717 was such a wonderful plane, why didn't more airlines buy it? And according to the life cycle limits, I think the 737 has a longer design l
144 tdscanuck : Yes, but there's no way it could be cost-competitive with an existing airframe, and that's its competition. Restarting a production line has certain
145 BMI727 : So was the MD-80 but that didn't save it after the TranStar merger. I'm not saying that WN can't be successful with the 717, but I think that we may
146 Antoniemey : I have a feeling if we went back about 20 years and started looking through press releases and aviation-related articles, we might just find some com
147 Revelation : You had me up to here. FedEx is an example of a well-oiled airline that does will with frames whose production lines are demolished. But you swung in
148 SEPilot : And, seeing as they have crews and support all in place, and there is no market for the planes (and, as I understand, they are leased until 2024 as w
149 Post contains images md80fanatic : Hey, I'm an MD cheerleader, a fanatic if you will. What did you expect? For me to suggest an A, B, C, L, or E product? No way bro.
150 parapente : For WN (and Ryanair) I guess it's a question of what they really want. If they really don't mind getting a re-engined plane then I am sure that they c
151 Post contains links keesje : Southwest’s business model is built on frequency. The airplane they would look at is “around 120 to 150 seats”. http://airinsight.wordpress.com
152 garpd : That's not a quote from Kelly, that's a narrative remark. Note the very important use of the quotation marks. I'm not sure how they use those in Dutc
153 Revelation : Please re-read, and you will find none of the things you are bringing up are attributed to Kelley, directly or indirectly. They are all in the sectio
154 planemaker : He really does exemplify the John Adam quote that you posted earlier. I wouldn't restrict your comments to just "what actually is being said" but to
155 Post contains links keesje : Some months ago you refuted any chance SW would order anything else then 737s. Reply 112. Southwest says something entirely different. For a long tim
156 garpd : Pot, meet kettle.[Edited 2010-11-03 14:19:42]
157 planemaker : No they don't. Please show us where they say that they are interested in ordering the CS300. Since when are: - EIS dates - Production Rates - Fleet C
158 Revelation : And so far, he is correct. And of course they aren't posturing, right? It'd be nice to see an actual order or even a LOI to support your position. LO
159 MDShady : Depending on the definition of permanent, why wouldn't they be? My bet is they'll be around for at least ten years, which would put these frames in t
160 Post contains links scbriml : Does Boeing get it? http://blog.seattlepi.com/aerospace/archives/227109.asp
161 SEPilot : What Boeing execs say in public for public consumption probably has little association with what they say in the closed boardrooms and in conversatio
162 Revelation : It could go either way. WN could indeed embrace and expand the fleet. Or, they can move on. I agree with you that to dump it in one shot isn't practi
163 MDShady : I don't know if they would expand it but I definitely see a positive adoption here, at the very least it would be very uneconomical not to. I'm guess
164 Stitch : I imagine Boeing does. After all, if WN is the only one of their customer pushing it, that is "virtually" none when you consider how many 737NG custo
165 SEPilot : Not likely; they buy new aircraft, and there are no new 717's. There are also only a limited number of used ones available; since only 156 were built
166 Post contains links Revelation : To me one plausible outcome could be if WN saw a lot of benefit to the FL 717 operations that are now east of the Mississippi, they could try to impl
167 SEPilot : This is possible, as a case of Boeing and WN helping each other out, but only on that basis. WN is stuck with the 717's until 2024, and since they wi
168 frmrCapCadet : But obviously with using the 717 WN will have experience using a smaller plane for several years. They may discover they have a place in their busines
169 N471wn : Limited? 30 are in storage right now!!
170 Post contains links Revelation : See also: SWA Acquires 3 Used 737 (by N471wn Oct 3 2010 in Civil Aviation) I don't see any "gospel truth" preventing WN from picking up more 717s on
171 Post contains images MDShady : I guess I don't understand the mentality that they are "stuck" with them. It's not not like they are inherenting a pile of CRJ's. They are about to a
172 BMI727 : Times do change, but the historical evidence would suggest that WN would rather have a one family fleet. No matter how long the 717s stay, I think it
173 JoeCanuck : True. What this does, though, is give WN a great opportunity to see how operating 2 types fits in with their operations. Heck, they might just like i
174 MDShady : Exactly, times do change and how much more can WN expand with one type? Not too much farther IMO.. That's the strategy right there, plain and simple.
175 SEPilot : In terms of WN's fleet that is a limited number. I doubt very much that they are interested in flying a type for which there are hard limits on how m
176 tsugambler : Why? From what I recall, there have been a couple of airlines who have been "stuck" with the 717 from mergers and the like, and ended up really likin
177 N471wn : Not when they will already have 86 Because Mexicana went bk and Midwest changed their business model---the 717 is a great airplane and Boeing did not
178 Antoniemey : The airline that 25 of them were leased to ceased operations. Technically, Midwest as it was when it flew the 717s ceased to exist. What remained of
179 SEPilot : If they have 86, and only 30 more will be available, that puts a hard limit on the number they can fly. I don't see this as being in any way attracti
180 JoeCanuck : If the 717 didn't have some value to WN, I doubt they would have gone through the effort of buying Airtran. The expense of integrating them into thei
181 SEPilot : When you buy an airline, unless it is being broken up in bankruptcy, you buy the whole package. You will always be stuck with something you would rat
182 Revelation : Well, they didn't buy FL out of bankruptcy, they bought a profitable entity that has a slightly different business model, after giving their books a
183 SEPilot : This is of course a reasonable approach, and if were any airline but WN, I would say that it is a probable outcome. But WN has been the most successf
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