BMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 16390 posts, RR: 27
Reply 2, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 27143 times:
Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 1): What happens if neither Airbus or Boeing does an NEO?
Business as usual probably. And I think that at this point, it is a definite possibility. The longer the CSeries order book remains dormant, the longer the re-engined 737 and A320 remain dormant.
Quoting cosmofly (Thread starter): WN CEO is also skeptical about Boeing's ability to come up with a new 737 in 2020
Which is a bit odd considering that I heard that WN was among the airlines waiting impatiently for the 737 replacement. Maybe they just don't want to wait, maybe they think another oil spike is coming, or maybe they think that a replacement 737 is ready yet. Too bad we will probably never find out for sure.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
BooDog From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 283 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 26947 times:
I really don't see what kind of debate we can have about this. Boeing will give Southwest WHATEVER they want. Boeing isn't going to lose Southwest's multiple multi-billion dollar orders to Airbus over a re-engine.
mrskyguy From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1214 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 26866 times:
Quoting BooDog (Reply 3): I really don't see what kind of debate we can have about this. Boeing will give Southwest WHATEVER they want. Boeing isn't going to lose Southwest's multiple multi-billion dollar orders to Airbus over a re-engine.
I think we're beginning to see a "new" Southwest, where everything you read about in 'Nuts!' is steadily being retired in favor of growth in to areas where WN previously avoided. Let's not forget that WN tried pretty stinking hard to grab Frontier. Make no mistake, WN will fly the jet that profits them the best.
"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee." -- Gunter's 2nd Law of Air
LAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Reply 7, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 26804 times:
Quoting BMI727 (Reply 2): The longer the CSeries order book remains dormant, the longer the re-engined 737 and A320 remain dormant.
Why not order some CS300 for delivery in 2016 to get Boeing to reengine. If Boeing does reengine, then Southwest could choose to remain all Boeing by selling the CS300 to another carrier or a leasing company.
I suppose they could, but Boeing is already going to be listening closely to what WN says they need. And considering the numbers involved, WN could even possibly get a variant customized to some extent.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
XT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3530 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 26715 times:
Quoting mrskyguy (Reply 6): Let's not forget that WN tried pretty stinking hard to grab Frontier
Frontier had massive overlap with WN's route network and had a firesale pricetag. WN would have bid even more but the judge refusing to allow time for the unions to come to a merger agreement made raising the offer pointless.
DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 22177 posts, RR: 63
Reply 11, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 26724 times:
It comes down to this: Boeing CAN re-engine the 737, but not with a significantly larger-diameter engine.
I think the best thing for Boeing to do at this point would be to start to develop a new NB aircraft with enough built-in design flexibility that it could handle a future re-engine.
The NB aircraft would probably be next-gen CFRP. It might be the 7-abreast design they patented. It should have long enough gear to allow for future engine upgrades. Whether it will be all-electric vs. bleed-based is unclear; it seems as if Airbus felt that all-electric did not have enough advantages to be worth it on the A350. Whether it would be any use on a short-range aircraft is beyond my guess.
The A320 can handle a major re-engine (including a much larger fan) without much structural change other than strengthening. There's oodles of clearance under the wings. Any 737RS should be made with similar capabilities.
JoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 6129 posts, RR: 32
Reply 12, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 26502 times:
One thing WN hasn't mentioned is how much more they are willing to pay for an NEO. Airbus has said an NEO 320 will cost a premium of 5-8 million Euros. An NEO 737 would probably cost at least that much.
scbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 14263 posts, RR: 45
Reply 13, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 25836 times:
Quoting BooDog (Reply 3): Boeing will give Southwest WHATEVER they want.
I'm going to swim against a popular tide here. I believe WN is not quite the all-mighty customer that some here think.
It wasn't that long ago that WN were demanding an all-new 737 replacement. If they want that from Boeing, it looks like they'll be waiting about another 10 years. I suspect in $ terms EK is probably as big a Boeing customer as WN, yet their demands for a larger 748i fell on deaf ears.
So Boeing is certainly not about satisfying the demands of just one of its customers. However big that customer is.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
md80fanatic From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 2792 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 24614 times:
Oh BOY! This is shaping up nicely for the 717.
Give the guy a chance to get up and running smoothy with the 717, and he'll have his new engines, albeit NOT on a 737.
One tiny step closer to having the tidal wave of influence which is SouthWest politely ask Boeing to start a new production line.
Zero chance they will be the guinea pigs for aircraft from OEMs with no record of technical support, logistics, etc. Bombardier can at least do that, although I still put the odds of a C-Series order at 1:100.
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 11): It comes down to this: Boeing CAN re-engine the 737, but not with a significantly larger-diameter engine.
JAAlbert From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1719 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 24384 times:
Quoting scbriml (Reply 13): So Boeing is certainly not about satisfying the demands of just one of its customers. However big that customer is.
It could be that Boeing can't satisfy the demands of WN and others with current technology. The article doesn't state what kind of efficiencies WN is expecting, but my understanding from the Airbus NEO debate is that many believe the cost to strengthen the wing and landing gear on the 320 would cost more than the modest benefits the new engine will bring. I imagine Boeing would have to strengthen the wing and landing gear to accomodate a heavier engine AND figure out how to put the larger engine under such a low wing.
Recent articles indicate that Airbus is having trouble scrounging up the engineers necessary to work on the NEO with its 380, 350 and 400 projects still in development. Boeing could be facing the same constraints with its 787 and 747-8 programs.
Garpd From UK - Scotland, joined Aug 2005, 2873 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 24338 times:
It's interesting how so many think WN have Boeing by the short and curlies and the latte will do anything to please WN.
This simply is not the case.
Yes WN have an all 737 fleet. But so did easyJet. They then got the deal of the century from Airbus and ditched Boeing in the blink of an eye.
Boeing are clever enough to know that there is no true loyalty when it comes to an airline buying aircraft.
When it comes to models that so closely match either other as the A320 and 737 do, the decision usually rides on the the price tag and perks.
WN's future order to replace their older aircraft will ride on who can deliver the goods for the lowest price with the most perks.
SEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 7387 posts, RR: 51
Reply 20, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 23554 times:
Quoting Garpd (Reply 18): WN's future order to replace their older aircraft will ride on who can deliver the goods for the lowest price with the most perks.
This is true to some extent; but for an airline with as large a fleet as WN and has only flown one type the costs of adding another type are quite large. However, if they are not being served by their manufacturer of choice they have a substantial incentive to incur this cost. If Boeing is unresponsive to WN, and Airbus is willing to do what they want, then it would behoove WN to add a subfleet of A320's. From then on they can buy from whichever manufacturer offers them the best deal. Boeing is very well aware of this, and I am convinced do not want WN to take that step, and hence will do all they can to keep WN happy. Also, if WN is unhappy with Boeing then chances are all of their other narrowbody customers will be as well. If Airbus goes with the NEO, Boeing will have to either do the same or launch a new aircraft; simple as that. If neither do anything, the only realistic option for WN would be the C-series, which won't be available for several years, and a significantly smaller version at that. Boeing right now is balancing what Airbus is doing with the C-series and their own capabilities, with an eye on the horizon for the C-919 and the MS-21. The latter two are probably at least a decade from being threats, and the MS-21 will probably never be because of Russian government corruption. But Boeing is not going to go down without a fight, and they cannot surrender the narrowbody market. Right now they have the best selling narrowbody, and I expect that they will do what they need to do to keep that position. The fact that everybody else is uncertain is what is delaying their decision.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 33124 posts, RR: 85
Reply 21, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 23437 times:
Quoting scbriml (Reply 13): I suspect in $ terms EK is probably as big a Boeing customer as WN, yet their demands for a larger 748i fell on deaf ears.
EK wanted the smaller 747-8, actually, because they wanted 8300nm of range. It fell on "deaf ears" because EK was never serious about buying it and Boeing knew it, even though it would meet EK's needs for more payload and passenger lift to LAX/SFO then the 777-300ER currently offers. Instead, EK now wants a better 777-300ER for that mission until traffic growth and airframe improvements allow the A380-800 to take over the route.
I do not believe Airbus can win WN, because to do so would be too costly. It's more than just airframe price - Airbus would also have to provide a lower cost on training for thousands of pilots and deals on all the ancillaries an active fleet of 500+ aircraft would need. And that is where the profit is really made on an airframe order. So Airbus would have to offer an A320 NEO at a price not-insignificantly higher than Boeing would offer the current 737NG. And then there is the disruption of WN operations as they transition from a 500-frame 737 fleet to a 500-frame A320 fleet. The cost of that can't be low.
That of course does not mean Boeing can tell WN to suck eggs and keep buying 737NGs, but it does mean that for WN a 737NGNEO would be sufficient to stay with Boeing even if the LEAP-X (and PW1x00G) is (are) not as effective as they would be on the A320NEO.
KC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12308 posts, RR: 51
Reply 22, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 23405 times:
Quoting mrskyguy (Reply 6): Make no mistake, WN will fly the jet that profits them the best.
Which is the B-737NG for them.
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 11): The A320 can handle a major re-engine (including a much larger fan) without much structural change other than strengthening. There's oodles of clearance under the wings.
There would be other engineering changes needed to reengine the A-32X series, or any airplane. The taller gear on the A-32X does give it an advantage, but you still need to modify or design all new tail flight controls and surfaces, as well as new engine struts and wing attachments. Plus there will need to be flap, leading edge slat, and wing flight controlled surfaces to be changed. Wing bending moments and other changes may be needed, which can include a new designed or modified wing spar and possibly winglets. None of what I mentioned includes hydraulic, electrical, or bleed air changes that might be needed. So a $5B to $7B engineering cost is not that far fetched.
I think the C919 are a long short and have too many uncertainties. Bombardier on the other hand seem to have some cards, a CS300 and / or CS500 would offer the right capacity and a substantial more efficient western platform. Maybe they would need some further back up (e.g. a big US lease company, UTC, an Aerospace OEM..) to make Southwest move..
motech722 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 211 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (4 years 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 22841 times:
I am always amazed at how some people can actually believe that Boeing will give Southwest WHATEVER they want. Statements like this show how narrow-minded people really are. Come on, Southwest is just one airline in the world, heck, it is but one airline in the US. It is not the dominant customer of Boeing by any means, so if Southwest demands that the plane be re-engined, Boeing can say no.
Look at it this way, if Boeing says no and Southwest does go to another manufacturer, then Boeing has a ton of other cutomers out there to continue to do business with. Southwest leaving Boeing will not mean bankruptcy for Boeing, in many ways it will mean more potential business opportunities for Boeing because with Southwest off the line, other airlines will be able to get aircraft sooner. On the flip side, say SWA would go to Airbus, then that line gets bogged down.
These multi-billion dollar orders can be both good and bad. IIRC, that is one reason Frontier went with an all-Airbus fleet, because at the time it could not get new 737s fast enough.
Southwest is a large airline, but not the biggest Boeing customer by any means.
: Since we are all throwing pot shots in the dark, I thought I'd jump in with this off the wall idea. Boeing sees a 737NEO as a not as profitable ventur
: You are ignoring the fact that if WN is unhappy, chances are so are the rest of Boeing's customers. WN is very important to Boeing not only because t
: My perreniel question: Economics: my uninformed guesses: Take Keesje's $4 billion upgrade Assume that Boeing would want to cover that with five years