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Avianca-Taca Alliance Decision Expected Shortly  
User currently offlineSamuP From Colombia, joined Jul 2010, 52 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 12 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 8994 times:

Fabio Villegas, CEO, declared in an interview that the negotiations with the alliance(s) are in a very advanced position. He expects the airline will be able to make an official announcement soon, hinting it will certainly be before year end.
Will it be Star Alliance in the end?

He also answers questions about Avianca-Taca's new plans with the introduction of LAN to Colombia, fleet renovation, and new routes. Interesting read. Sorry, link in spanish only:

http://www.portafolio.com.co/economi...-ahora-va-a-ser-distinta_8254221-3

80 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineglobalflyer From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 934 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (3 years 12 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 9016 times:

If I had to bet I would say Star. I wish it would be SkyTeam to fill a void in the region and it would be a nice fit between AM and the recently announced AR into the alliance. But it seems like all fingers are pointing to Star.


Landing on every Continent almost on an annual basis!
User currently offlineAA1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3435 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (3 years 12 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 8931 times:

Quoting globalflyer (Reply 1):
If I had to bet I would say Star. I wish it would be SkyTeam to fill a void in the region and it would be a nice fit between AM and the recently announced AR into the alliance. But it seems like all fingers are pointing to Star.

If they go to Star then I think it's a virtual certainty that LATAM will go to oneworld. Any idea why TAM and AA ended their relationship a few years back? Was it bad blood? What made TAM switch to UA?

AA1818



“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8437 posts, RR: 7
Reply 3, posted (3 years 12 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 8891 times:
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Quoting AA1818 (Reply 2):
f they go to Star then I think it's a virtual certainty that LATAM will go to oneworld. Any idea why TAM and AA ended their relationship a few years back? Was it bad blood? What made TAM switch to UA?

It probably had to do with several factors but the first is TAM first european destination was CDG in code share with AF and maybe that didn't work out to TAM's expectations. Second, VARIG disintegrated and Star was looking for a replacement, TAM fit the bill since they are the only major airline left in Brazil flying to Europe. TAM was probably more concerned about an allance to Europe then North America since it flies more to Europe. Back in 1998 when TAM got its A330 and started flying to Miami, Varig was still around so AA looked like a sensible partner. Before joining Star TAM had code share deals but didn't join OW so it was looking for a marriage partner. Then LATAM is upon us and we shall see.... exciting times in Latin skies.


User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4554 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (3 years 12 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 8856 times:

Reading carefully that press release, some new routes are likely expected: TA LIM-COR, AV BOG-SJU and AV BOG-HAV.
The existence of three daily flights nowadays heading to both GRU and EZE on AV-TA is not entirely true:
Buenos Aires: TA LIM-EZE: 12x weekly + AV BOG-EZE 4x weekly:
Sao Paulo: TA LIM-GRU: 11x weekly + AV BOG-GRU 7x weekly.

Regards.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8862 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (3 years 12 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 8791 times:

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 2):
Quoting globalflyer (Reply 1):
If I had to bet I would say Star. I wish it would be SkyTeam to fill a void in the region and it would be a nice fit between AM and the recently announced AR into the alliance. But it seems like all fingers are pointing to Star.

If they go to Star then I think it's a virtual certainty that LATAM will go to oneworld. Any idea why TAM and AA ended their relationship a few years back? Was it bad blood? What made TAM switch to UA?

Remember, LAN and TAM compete directly with AA on some routes. For example, LAN Ecuador operates 11 weekly flights into MIA. Alongside the SCL-BOG-MIA-BOG-SCL, SCL-GYE-CCS-MIA-CCS-GYE-MIA, SCL-CCS-MIA-CCS-SCL, SCL-PUJ-MIA-PUJ-SCL, EZE-MIA-EZE routes, plus more routes, e.g. JFK-JFK, and technically BOG-JFK etc. AA will soon start MIA-BSB, TAM will also launch BSB-MIA soon, etc. LAN now operates at FLL as well, CLO-FLL daily and BOG-FLL daily, CTG-FLL, etc.

[Edited 2010-11-02 08:13:57]

User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8862 posts, RR: 5
Reply 6, posted (3 years 12 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 8627 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 5):
SCL-GYE-CCS-MIA-CCS-GYE-MIA,

The route is SCL-GYE-CCS-MIA-CCS-GYE-SCL operated by LAN Airlines. LAN Ecuador operates GYE-MIA-GYE 4x weekly, (B763), UIO-MIA-UIO daily, (B763) and GYE-JFK-GYE 9x weekly, (B763).


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3713 posts, RR: 19
Reply 7, posted (3 years 12 months 3 days ago) and read 8565 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):
TAM was probably more concerned about an allance to Europe then North America since it flies more to Europe.

If that were the case, UA wouldn't have been TAM's mentor into Star. I still think that LAN and TAM can continue flying to MIA and MAD with several daily flights without having to depend on AA or IB, so being partners with them wouldn't be needed. If there were ever need to fly to a hub from specific points in South America, IAH and LIS present themselves as good alternatives.

If AV-TA is signalling this, that's because it must be Skyteam. I don't think that Latam has chosen an alliance yet, so Star or Oneworld wouldn't close negotiations with them now. Skyteam sent a clear signal that they are not interested in Latam, since they took AR. The alliance that takes AV-TA does that as well. Interesting enough is the fact that there is no conflict between AR and AV-TA, so that could be a good match. In the future, when and if the Argentinian state fixes AR, they could become ideal merger partners for AV-TA.

[Edited 2010-11-02 09:48:02]

User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8862 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (3 years 12 months 3 days ago) and read 8547 times:

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 7):
I still think that LAN and TAM can continue flying to MIA and MAD with several daily flights without having to depend on AA or IB, so being partners with them wouldn't be needed. If there were ever need to fly to a hub from specific points in South America, IAH and LIS present themselves as good alternatives.

This is accurate, LA SCL-MIA-SCL is mostly O&D and VFR traffic. UIO-MIA-UIO and GYE-MIA-GYE cater to VFR traffic. LAN's thrice weekly flights between BOG and MIA do not rely on connections and the twice weekly service between MIA and CCS is always packed! Same goes for EZE-MIA-EZE, but the flights to LIM usually get connections, (a lot from the D.C. area too).


User currently offlineglobalflyer From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 934 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (3 years 12 months 3 days ago) and read 8472 times:

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 7):
If AV-TA is signalling this, that's because it must be Skyteam. I don't think that Latam has chosen an alliance yet, so Star or Oneworld would close negotiations with them now. Skyteam sent a clear signal that they are not interested in Latam, since they took AR. The alliance that takes AV-TA does that as well. Interesting enough is the fact that there is no conflict between AR and AV-TA, so that could be a good match. In the future, when and if the Argentinian state fixes AR, they could become ideal merger partners for AV-TA.

If they are signalling what? I think I missed something? You really think SkyTeam has a chance? I hope so but really thought Star had the advantage. I am Platinum on both DL and CO so either is good with me but I would like to see SkyTeam close some gaps.



Landing on every Continent almost on an annual basis!
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3713 posts, RR: 19
Reply 10, posted (3 years 12 months 3 days ago) and read 8465 times:

Quoting globalflyer (Reply 9):
If they are signalling what?

Signalling that the decision is expected shortly, potentially until the end of the year.

Quoting globalflyer (Reply 9):
You really think SkyTeam has a chance? I hope so but really thought Star had the advantage. I am Platinum on both DL and CO so either is good with me but I would like to see SkyTeam close some gaps.

If Star goes for AV-TA, they can forget Latam. That's why Skyteam has a great chance.


User currently offlineglobalflyer From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 934 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (3 years 12 months 3 days ago) and read 8457 times:

C010T3 ... I sure hope you are correct! Cheers!


Landing on every Continent almost on an annual basis!
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8862 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (3 years 12 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 8435 times:

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 10):

Quoting globalflyer (Reply 9):
You really think SkyTeam has a chance? I hope so but really thought Star had the advantage. I am Platinum on both DL and CO so either is good with me but I would like to see SkyTeam close some gaps.

If Star goes for AV-TA, they can forget Latam. That's why Skyteam has a great chance.

Absolutely, there are 4 SkyTeam carriers operating into SCL. And soon there will be 6 SkyTeam members at LIM, (AM, AR, DL, KL, UX, and soon AF). LA still code-shares with AM and KE.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8437 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (3 years 12 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 8348 times:
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Quoting C010T3 (Reply 7):
If that were the case, UA wouldn't have been TAM's mentor into Star. I still think that LAN and TAM can continue flying to MIA and MAD with several daily flights without having to depend on AA or IB

TAM and LAN will fly to Miami and Madrid since that is destination number 1 for people from south america. But what does United do for TAM in Miami ? NADA, absolutely nothing. IF TAM flew to Houston, Washington Dulles or Chicago then UA would do all kinds of stuff for TAM but TAM's JFK and MIA gateways are dependent on TAM next to nothing from UA since UA has almost no presence at those 2 airports today.


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3713 posts, RR: 19
Reply 14, posted (3 years 12 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 8316 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
TAM and LAN will fly to Miami and Madrid since that is destination number 1 for people from south america. But what does United do for TAM in Miami ? NADA, absolutely nothing. IF TAM flew to Houston, Washington Dulles or Chicago then UA would do all kinds of stuff for TAM but TAM's JFK and MIA gateways are dependent on TAM next to nothing from UA since UA has almost no presence at those 2 airports today.

That's exactly it. UA can offer an expansion opportunity, while AA can only offer further cannibalizing. If TAM and LAN weren't already big at MIA, I would agree with you, but that's not the case.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8437 posts, RR: 7
Reply 15, posted (3 years 12 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 8243 times:
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Quoting C010T3 (Reply 14):
That's exactly it. UA can offer an expansion opportunity, while AA can only offer further cannibalizing. If TAM and LAN weren't already big at MIA, I would agree with you, but that's not the case.

AA "cannibalizing" what ? IF TAM and LAN went wih OW what would AA be cannibalizing at TAM ? That is life saying Lufthansa is cannibalizing TAM from FRA to GRU because they are both Star alliance members. LAN and AA have cooperated very well to Santiago for 10 years with LAN being the better for it. If TAM went OW TAM and AA would dominate the routes to Brazil like AA/BA to the UK.

AA can offer TAM gateways to DFW and Chicago, very similar to United with Houston and Chaicago. AA would offer support to TAM and LAN in MIA and when they are ready to fly to Dallas and Chicago, at those 2 airport also. In the USA, Star offers Tam and LAN little at JFK and MIA, I just don't see LAN or AM flying to Philadelphia, Houston, Chicago or Charlotte. ITs better to be on the side of the Texas silver bullet then in its way.


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8862 posts, RR: 5
Reply 16, posted (3 years 12 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 8189 times:

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 14):
That's exactly it. UA can offer an expansion opportunity

A SCL-LIM-IAD route would be very successful and does not even need a code-share IMO; since it would draw a mix of pax. The GRU-LIM-SFO route seems to be preforming above expectations. It is a known fact that LAN would also like to operate a SCL-LIM-YYZ route, (and with the acquisition of Aires, a BOG-YYZ route as well) instead of a tag-on between JFK and YYZ. But that would be hard to do given that AC serves SCL, LIM and BOG. Also, LAN seems intent on opening Chicago O'Hare next year. That will be interesting!

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 15):
AA "cannibalizing" what ? IF TAM and LAN went wih OW what would AA be cannibalizing at TAM ?

At LATAM Airlines Group is more like it. Why would AA want to stop growing in South America. Even though AA code-shares with LA on flights like SCL-COR, it is still not adequate for them. AA wants to fly into secondary cities like CIX, CUZ, IQT, MDZ, etc. AA overtly advertises at the airport in CUZ. They will return to ASU and launch a route to COR. IB or AA may even operate between COR and ASU. AA can fly SCL-ASU, SCL-COR, SCL-MDZ, SCL-MVD, etc. if they wanted too. LAN would not care since they have their own customers, plus AA would face competition from other carriers as well. AA already tried to stop LAN from opening a hub at SDQ years ago. Now LAN is at BOG and now operates international flights into FLL and also a BOG-JFK route. AA may not like this IMO as LAN has grown in the South Florida area overnight.


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3713 posts, RR: 19
Reply 17, posted (3 years 12 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 8161 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 15):
IF TAM and LAN went wih OW what would AA be cannibalizing at TAM ? That is life saying Lufthansa is cannibalizing TAM from FRA to GRU because they are both Star alliance members.

One of AA's focus as an airline is South America, you cannot say that about UA (nor CO). The same can be said about IB and TP, but TP does not play in the same league, no to mention that LIS is reaching capacity.
AA is going for secondary cities in South America, while UA and LH are not and probably never will.


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3713 posts, RR: 19
Reply 18, posted (3 years 12 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 8116 times:

The only thing that I miss on UA for it to make it work for the whole Latam Group to switch to Star is a more active presence at MIA with flights to its hubs and MCO. If Latam chooses Star, UA has to build a larger presence at MIA with coordinated flights to IAH, EWR, LAX, SFO, DEN, ORD, IAD, CLE and MCO. I include MCO, because MCO is a relevant market to which both LA and JJ are dependent on AA today, which is a bit uncomfortable. Using 3M is not an acceptable alternative, since those Beechcraft are not very comfortable. Another United Express affiliate should jump in.

User currently offlineRCS763AV From Colombia, joined Jun 2004, 4395 posts, RR: 12
Reply 19, posted (3 years 12 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 8054 times:

It's an interesting reasoning that Star wouldn't have closed negotiations with AV-TA that soon. But there are some key factors here to take into consideration:

1. Avianca and Lufthansa will announce an extensive codeshare agreement of Wednesday. AM has been approaching AV to do the same on Colombia-Mexico since the failure of MX.
2. There is a certain truth to the rumor that LA-JJ will take an alliance decision before year's end (apparently the alliances are demanding this)
3. Skyteam still has AV's strongest codeshare partner: Delta. The Northeast-Florida corridor in which they codeshare moves a lot of passengers to feed AV's MIA and FLL operations, not to mention that AV provides feed for DL's flights in BOG. AV also transfers some passengers at JFK on DL flights to international destinations.
4. Air Canada also codeshares with AV. AF has an FF agreement.
5. With CO's operations, Star would definitely have an edge against Skyteam in BOG in order to feed the hub. (3-4x weekly IAH, 1x daily EWR, 5x weekly FRA, 1x daily GRU soon).
6. In what I consider a desperate move, Skyteam locked AR which not only has a joke of an operation, it's hub is also very inefficient because of the geographical location and the dual airport situation in Buenos Aires. I'm guessing they are looking for something else. Star and OW are comfortable figting against each other for LA and JJ, while Sky really needs a decent addtion.

I would say that Star and Sky are neck to neck on this one, but the former is being more active in pursuing the membership. Though I really think Skyteam is a nicer fit, Star could win this one.

Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 4):
Reading carefully that press release, some new routes are expected: TA LIM-COR, AV-BOG-SJU and AV BOG-HAV

Also, BOG-GIG and BOG-BSB, which were the next natural additions to the netwrok. I'm guessing they will be flown by AV Brasil.

[Edited 2010-11-02 12:50:39]


Les escribo desde el frío de mi verde altiplano.
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3713 posts, RR: 19
Reply 20, posted (3 years 12 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 8000 times:

Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 19):
2. There is a certain truth to the rumor that LA-JJ will take an alliance decision before year's end (apparently the alliances are demanding this)

I don't think that's fair, since there is no guarantee that the merger will be approved.


User currently offlinekiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8584 posts, RR: 13
Reply 21, posted (3 years 12 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 7862 times:
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There is a Star Alliance meeting next month in ZQN over the weekend of the 11-13 December which would fit in with the timing of "before the end of the year" , perhaps some sort of announcement will come out of that ?

I would expect that if Star go for AV/TA it would be a tacit admission that they have lost the battle for the really big prize , LATAM . ( On the other hand , I am still hoping for a miracle to come out of that meeting with an announcement that LAN have applied to swap camps , in which case I would expect AV/TA to announce for Skyteam or even OW ... but I admit that is probably wishful thinking on my part , I would probably think the odds are in favour of LATAM going to OW over *A )



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11753 posts, RR: 62
Reply 22, posted (3 years 12 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 7821 times:

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 2):
If they go to Star then I think it's a virtual certainty that LATAM will go to oneworld.

It is going to be interesting to see how these dynamics turn out - Avianca-TACA will probably be the first domino, but we'll see what else - if anything - falls.

I generally agree that if Star does go with Avianca-TACA, there is little chance that they will also get LAN-TAM. In that scenario, oneworld likely comes out the winner.

Personally, I've always thought SkyTeam made far more sense for Avianca-TACA, but their continual interactions with Star makes it seem as though they may have interest in either SkyTeam or Star. To me, it always made more sense that Avianca-TACA, along with its presence in Brazil, Northern South America, Central America, etc. to go with SkyTeam, Copa to go to Star, LAN-TAM to go to either oneworld or Star, and GOL to go to the loser of the LAN-TAM battle.

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 2):
Any idea why TAM and AA ended their relationship a few years back? Was it bad blood?

I don't think it was "bad blood" or anything personal - as the saying goes, "just business."

They grew into becoming big competitors.

When AA and TAM first formed their partnership over a decade ago, TAM was still primarily flying Fokkers and was a (relatively) small player up against VARIG. At that time, AA was a massive contributor of revenue and international feed onto TAM's Brazilian domestic system, and the symbiotic relationship between the two functioned quite well. As time went on, and TAM grew into its own - and VARIG collapsed - TAM and AA became director competitors in many key markets like Miami and New York.

Now, that isn't to say that two competitors can't function within the same alliance - AA and BA did it (albeit highly imperfectly) for years, and Singapore and Thai have also done it for years, etc. And, there's nothing to say that AA and TAM won't soon be doing it again since - as I've said - I think the chances of LAN-TAM going to oneworld are at least 50/50.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 7):
I still think that LAN and TAM can continue flying to MIA and MAD with several daily flights without having to depend on AA or IB, so being partners with them wouldn't be needed.

Of course they can.

Both are exceptional airlines that are extremely well-run and offer great service, and would do just fine to Miami and Madrid, Lisbon, etc. just fine with or without feed from any partners.

However, as I personally have argued, the thing that oneworld brings to LAN-TAM is that it happens to be strong in many of the international markets (yes, Miami and Madrid being chief among them) where LAN-TAM are strong, and thus can offer far more connections (interline, codeshare, etc.) than some other competing alliances.


User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4554 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (3 years 12 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 7621 times:

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 7):
Interesting enough is the fact that there is no conflict between AR and AV-TA

LIM, EZE and BOG are the current airports where they can combine their operations.
However, both AR EZE-BOG and AR EZE-LIM are not even operating daily and Buenos Aires experiences the dual operations at both EZE and AEP as explained above. This is not precisely the best sight to suggest us about a healthy project between AR and [TA-AV].




.

Quoting commavia (Reply 22):
SkyTeam made far more sense for Avianca-TACA

We cannot ignore the agreements established by TACA with other airlines involved in Star Alliance: UA, LH and US. These deals are into force several years ago, in some cases. In my view, this is part of a slow process on the road heading to Star Alliance.

Regards.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11753 posts, RR: 62
Reply 24, posted (3 years 12 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 7606 times:

Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 23):
We cannot ignore the agreements established by TACA with other airlines involved in Star Alliance: UA, LH and US. These deals are into force several years ago, in some cases. In my view, this is part of a slow process on the road heading to Star Alliance.

Perhaps, although, I still think, overall, SkyTeam would make far more sense for Avianca-TACA.

There is really virtually nothing UA/US can bring Avianca-TACA in the U.S. that DL can't from a feed/connectivity perspective, and same with LH in Europe for Avianca-TACA versus AF/KL.

Plus, as others have said, from Star's perspective, it very well may end up being true that if Star goes for AV-TA, they won't be able to have LAN-TAM. It may end up being an either/or choice for Star, and if I were making that strategic choice at Star, I would want LAN-TAM any day of the week. But, of course, that doesn't factor in the intense lobbying that oneworld is doing with LAN-TAM as well.


25 SJOtoLIR : We are theoretically agreed in that statement. The real fact consists in the huge agreement called TA-UA which is operating at this time and it canno
26 AA787 : Couldn't they apply for a JV or sorts?
27 commavia : Not as long as the U.S. and Brazil don't have Open Skies. Some have suggested that even with Open Skies, AA and TAM together wouldn't be able to get
28 Qazar : To have or not to have, that is the question ... at least that is the question for the Star Alliance ! It is without a doubt that the new LATAM would
29 C010T3 : Avianca is nothing in Brazil, just insignificant.
30 SJOtoLIR : TAM ended its old code-share agreement with TACA in 2007 in favor of LA for some of their deep South American routes. The formula JJ-LA is by far mor
31 Post contains links RubberJungle : From Flight International: Lufthansa codeshare brings Avianca closer to Star Alliance
32 Post contains links 777jaah : This is the kind of moves that can give one some anticipation of what AV will or have chosen for an alliance. Here's an artocle were both Lh and AV-T
33 RCS763AV : Same goes to AV-DL. The existing agreements might have a less important role in this compared to what decision LA-JJ take.
34 commavia : I think that basically your analysis is right. It's take a known now versus the chance of something later. Avianca-TACA is certainly attractive, and
35 globalflyer : I can almost guarantee that CM will keep it's close relationship with CO and then to see them go to Star and it seems like G3 is like AS and prefers c
36 commavia : Even if Avianca-TACA goes to Star? I'm not saying it's impossible - would certainly not be the first time that two overlapping regional competitors i
37 SCL767 : This is the most likely scenario since IMO. LA/JJ/AA would be the dominant force between North America and South America. But JJ would be penalized b
38 globalflyer : Well you have a point? Of course I am hoping for AV/TA go with SKYTEAM but this is really anyones guess these days.
39 commavia : If it happens, it would be a monumental win - hard to overstate - for oneworld, and further solidify the already-strong lead that the alliance has in
40 SCL767 : LAN Colombia can operate CTG-MIA and BAQ-MIA, with an AA code-share. And eventually, more cities from Peru to MIA. You know those AAdvantage members
41 commavia : Absolutely. LAN-TAM would ideally be choice #1 for any alliance, and it's obvious why: it combines the continent's largest airline with its second la
42 jfk777 : Since LAN's management is in ultimate control of LATAM and currently in OW, Star would have to present one hell of a case to ditch OneWorld.
43 OP3000 : If AV/TA join Star, its a sign that alliance does not think it has a chance of getting LATAM. I personally don't think anything will be announced soon
44 Post contains links Ota1 : I already posted this in the other thread about a possible AV/TA/CM tie up.... I just came across a very interesting Spanish report about Star's strat
45 realsim : Maybe it's Avianca, TACA and also Aerogal, which is part of the AV/TA group. TA would not calify as a "South American carrier", but has they have a h
46 Qazar : I completely agree with this statement! Personally, here's what I think it will look like is a few months: STAR ALLIANCE: - TACA (a full member) - AV
47 Post contains links SCL767 : Wishful thinking on your part! LAN's VP Enrique Cueto, expects that the merger with TAM will be approved by ANAC with-in 90 days! Meanwhile, LAN's VP
48 SJOtoLIR : The former headquarter of TACA was placed in San Salvador, El Salvador. GRUPO TACA is part of the merger of the Central American airlines: the former
49 SCL767 : I wonder what LATAM Airlines Group's Central American subsidiary will be called?
50 jfk777 : When LATAM gets created, I can't imagine them being able to buy another airline in mainland South America since they control the main airlines in 4 c
51 RCS763AV : Certainly 2K. Very interesting article, but very inconclusive. Will have to wait until next week and see. That won't happen. LA/JJ are almost fact an
52 SCL767 : There are many smaller carriers in different markets that may complement LA/JJ's current and future operations. GRUPO TACA, a Central American carrie
53 Qazar : Yeah, well OneWorld seems to list them as just 1 carrier on their website.... LAN!
54 Summa767 : Thanks for this. I always had the impression that there were some dictatorial tendencies about Lan. Very far fetched. I really think that Central Ame
55 SJOtoLIR : LAN has undoubtedly the potential to start a new subsidiary in Central America, but it faces some troubles: The lack of capacity in the Central Ameri
56 EddieDude : Well, insofar as foreign direct investment in airlines remains limited to 25% of voting stock, foreign airlines will not be interested in investing i
57 kiwiandrew : I guess if AV/TA go with Star then Avianca Brasil would be part of the package which would go a little way towards repairing the damage of losing JJ i
58 C010T3 : Avianca Brasil has 21 daily departures from GRU, 20 if you don't count GRU-BOG.
59 Post contains images kiwiandrew : Yes , I know that they are tiny in comparison to JJ , but if *A lose JJ to OW ( still desperately hoping it won't happen ) then some presence in the
60 OP3000 : Hopefully a reinvigorated Avianca Brasil. I really don't understand why an important airline group like AV/TA do not have a stronger Brazil strategy.
61 jfk777 : IF TAM and LATAM do go to OneWorld, Star would probably try to grow an existing Brazilian airline into a second large airline with flights to the USA
62 SCL767 : OneWorld also lists their affiliate airlines on oneworld.com It could be a good area to start a new cargo subsidiary. Another duopoly that creates hi
63 OP3000 : The only major countries I can think of in the region with a duopoly are Chile (LAN and Sky) and Argentina (AR, LA). Bad example. GOL had a weak prod
64 SCL767 : Not so; PAL Airlines in Chile is growing in the domestic market. Also, there are other carriers that compete directly with AR/4M, e.g. Sol Líneas A
65 C010T3 : Gol's problem was its incompetence.
66 OP3000 : PAL has less than 3% market share, as compared to LAN with 75-80% and Sky with 15-20%. The Chilean market is a duopoly by any objective measure and h
67 SCL767 : It has been, yet PAL and Sky are still growing, just like the entire domestic market in Chile. Does LAN have a duopoly in Perú as well, since LP dom
68 OP3000 : The truth is that LAN could have driven Sky out of business in a few months if it wanted to. But they would rather have a weak competitor rather than
69 jfk777 : Varig's reputation was worthless, they used 767-300( not a smart airplane for 12 hour flights to northern Europe) and GOL didn't really know how to d
70 SCL767 : That is ridiculous. So you believe that LAN is simply allowing Sky to gain market-share to avoid "regulatory and PR" problems? Chile has very liberal
71 OP3000 : I'm not sure if they are "allowing" Sky to "gain" market share. But that they have let them survive, they have. And its not just me - a lot of people
72 SJOtoLIR : As far as I know, AV/TA is planning to boost their long flights out from Colombia or somewhere in Central America. AV Brazil looks rather oriented by
73 SCL767 : Sky is already beyond 20%, and will soon add more domestic and international flights. I guess we will have to wait and see what LAN's response will b
74 SJOtoLIR : Very interesting to see KL, AF and LH in Lima next year ! The potential LH FRA-LIM would stimulate even more the commercial relationship between LH-T
75 EddieDude : I agree, their venture to MEX was a terrible failure. In the future, however, the Avianca brand name and a bigger domestic network would probably hel
76 SCL767 : A major hindrance to AV Brazil's growth is that Brazil's 3 main airports are at capacity all ready. However, they should try to develop a "niche hub"
77 SJOtoLIR : Agreed. AV Brazil can feed [AV GRU-BOG and then AV BOG-MEX] and [TA GRU-LIM and then TA LIM-MEX]. Regards
78 SCL767 : It's interesting to note that soon CM/P5 may offer the same connections via BOG and PTY. LA/LP already offer daily connections between GRU and MEX vi
79 SJOtoLIR : P5 BOG-MEX 7x weekly started on August 17th with 73G. It complements CM PTY-MEX 19x weekly. Regards.
80 SCL767 : P5 planned on launching BOG-GRU earlier this year, (along with BOG-MIA). P5 could have offered the same connections to MEX via BOG. However, it looks
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