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AV/TA & CM Tie Up Possible?  
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6046 posts, RR: 2
Posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 4948 times:

With CMs closeness to Star's CO/UA (heck they even share the same tail motif), AV/TA ever closeness to Star's LH, the seeming demise of "hostilities" between CM and TA ( i actually heard a TA exec saying nice things about CM last week), the large alliances being built in S. America (LATAM), and the seemingly dragging out of Alliance decisions for these carriers....

I pose this question.

Might there be a sudden merger announcement in the near future? maybe even at ALTA in PTY in 2 weeks?

A tie up would create a real powerhouse and a real challenger to LATAM.

[Edited 2010-11-03 13:49:53]


When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
62 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineaaway From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 1521 posts, RR: 14
Reply 1, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 4986 times:

Question: What does CM bring to the table that TA doesn't...geographically and/or otherwise?


With a choice between changing one's mind & proving there's no need to do so, most everyone gets busy on the proof.
User currently onlineA388 From Netherlands Antilles, joined May 2001, 9720 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 4929 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Thread starter):
AV/TA ever closeness to Star's LH

Closeness to LH? Isn't it just a codeshare that they have? They have codeshares with DL and IB. Does that make them "close to" the OneWorld and Skyteam Alliances?

Quoting aaway (Reply 1):
Question: What does CM bring to the table that TA doesn't...geographically and/or otherwise?

Good point. I don't see these airlines being in the same alliance as they don't add anything together. The TA network coverage is very similar to that of CM.

I see AV/TA benefitting the most at the Skyteam Alliance as they will be a real asset in that alliance. The other alliances are already well covered by other big latin american airlines (LA, JJ, CM).

A388


User currently offlinekiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8544 posts, RR: 13
Reply 3, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 4896 times:
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Quoting A388 (Reply 2):
The other alliances are already well covered by other big latin american airlines (LA, JJ, CM).

Except of course that CM isn't in an alliance , and it is highly likely that either LAN or JJ will end up shifting from their current alliance , so whoever misses out on LATAM is going to need to arrange other coverage within South/Central America . AV/TA could be a good possible candidate to fill that vacancy .



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlineRCS763AV From Colombia, joined Jun 2004, 4393 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 4866 times:

Not gonna happen. Colombian anti trust authorities would never allow it (the combined airline would have around 70% of the domestic market and 55-60% of the international market).


Les escribo desde el frío de mi verde altiplano.
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11416 posts, RR: 59
Reply 5, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 4844 times:
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Quoting A388 (Reply 2):
Quoting aaway (Reply 1):
Question: What does CM bring to the table that TA doesn't...geographically and/or otherwise?

Good point. I don't see these airlines being in the same alliance as they don't add anything together. The TA network coverage is very similar to that of CM.

Does not make sense at all giving that both compete in a lot of markets and have the same business model. In my view CM could be a good focus of acquisition to G3 in order to access a competitive business oriented & international model, using also and mostly Boeing 737 plus good knowledge about the E-Jets.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineglobalflyer From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 925 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 4797 times:

I as well do not see this happening especially since it would be taking away traffic shifts from their hubs. PTY vs SAL/MGA/TGU..


Landing on every Continent almost on an annual basis!
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3681 posts, RR: 19
Reply 7, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 4784 times:

A CM-G3 merger makes sense, just like a Latam-CM merger could make sense as well.

User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8752 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 4732 times:
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Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 3):
so whoever misses out on LATAM is going to need to arrange other coverage within South/Central America .

There are still other players, e.g. Star Peru has a larger domestic network than TA Peru with-in Peru. Sky Airline is still growing and offers a reasonable domestic network with-in Chile! But I hear that they are not interested in AV/TA anymore. AV/TA are currently courting Chile's smallest domestic airline, PAL.

Quoting yellowtail (Thread starter):
A tie up would create a real powerhouse and a real challenger to LATAM.

No, it would actually balance out the LAN and TAM combination; which will dominate South America. Whereas, CM/P5/AV/TA would dominate Central America.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 7):
just like a Latam-CM merger could make sense as well.

No way, CM will eventually fly into more secondary cities that LAN serves. LAN will not join the same alliance as CM. Different for TAM due to the bilateral between Panama and Brazil.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11416 posts, RR: 59
Reply 9, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 4651 times:
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Quoting C010T3 (Reply 7):
A CM-G3 merger makes sense, just like a Latam-CM merger could make sense as well.

CM in my view have the same business model of LP and a good coverage of Lan operations. CM could merge with JJ but never with Lan.
CM matches also AR.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8752 posts, RR: 5
Reply 10, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 4630 times:
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Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 9):
CM in my view have the same business model of LP and a good coverage of Lan operations. CM could merge with JJ but never with Lan.
CM matches also AR.

No, CM is more Central American and Caribbean. LAN is South American and already operates all the way from CTG down to Ushuaia! Plus 16 domestic cities in Peru, plus cities in Argentina, and Chile, etc.


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3681 posts, RR: 19
Reply 11, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 4589 times:

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 9):
CM in my view have the same business model of LP and a good coverage of Lan operations. CM could merge with AM-Transportes Aereos Meridionais (Brazil)">JJ but never with Lan.
Quoting SCL767 (Reply 10):
CM is more Central American and Caribbean.

Exactly, LP will never have CM's coverage in Central America and Caribbean, not to mention the fact that acquiring Copa is a way not only to adjust PTY and LIM for complementation instead of competing, but also to replicate TA's scope.
The alternative is to have AM attacking from the North in the future, since they could use CM if AV-TA does not join Skyteam.


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8752 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 4570 times:
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Quoting C010T3 (Reply 11):
The alternative is to have AM attacking from the North in the future, since they could use CM if AV-TA does not join Skyteam.

CM will never join SkyTeam again. And LAN will not stand being in the same alliance with CM. Plus, AM code-shares with LP. LAN wants to offer routes like BOG-AUA, BOG-CUR, BOG-HAV, BOG-SDQ, BOG-SJU, BOG-PUJ, etc. Remember, CM receives revenue guarantees like G3 to operate into AUA, KIN, PAP, and soon SXM. LAN has plans to open a focus-city later in Central America later on. LAN can fly SCL-LIM-PTY, LIM-SAL, LIM-SJO, LIM-GUA, etc.


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3681 posts, RR: 19
Reply 13, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 4550 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 12):
CM will never join SkyTeam again. And LAN will not stand being in the same alliance with CM. Plus, AM code-shares with LP.

I was talking about mergers and acquisitions, not alliances.


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8752 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 4542 times:
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Quoting C010T3 (Reply 13):
I was talking about mergers and acquisitions, not alliances.

AM will never merge, not even with another Mexican airline. And LAN will never merge with CM. CM enjoys its high fares between Central America and South America, why would they want to merge? Their model is based on a single hub operation. As soon as Colombia and Panama have OS, P5 will reduce its presence in the domestic market in favor of routing flights via PTY.


User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4391 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 4507 times:

Quoting aaway (Reply 1):
Question: What does CM bring to the table that TA doesn't...geographically and/or otherwise?

Destinations served by both TA and CM: BOG-EZE-CLO-CUN-CCS-GUA-GYE-HAV-LIM-LAX-MGA-MDE-MEX-MIA-MVD-JFK-PTY-UIO-GIG-SAP-SJO-SAL-SDQ-GRU-TGU-IAD-MCO-VVI.


Main destinations served by TACA/TACA REGIONAL exclusively: ANF-ASU-BZE-BSB-ORD-CUZ-DFW-FRS-LCE-LPB-LIR-MDZ-POA-IAH-RTB-SFO-YYZ.


Destinations served by COPA exclusively: AUA-BAQ-CNF-CTG-COR-GDL-KIN-MAO-MAR-POS-PAP-PUJ-ADZ-SJU-STI-SXM-VLN.




.

Quoting globalflyer (Reply 6):
I as well do not see this happening especially since it would be taking away traffic shifts from their hubs. PTY vs SAL/MGA/TGU..

It's better the reference about PTY-SAL-SJO.
PTY: Copa Airlines
SAL: TACA
SJO: TACA

Managua and Tegucigalpa so far don't qualify as hubs.




.

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 8):
Sky Airline is still growing and offers a reasonable domestic network with-in Chile! But I hear that they are not interested in AV/TA anymore. AV/TA are currently courting Chile's smallest domestic airline, PAL.

In other words, the possible second daily TA SCL-LIM operated by Sky Airline as daylight service would never happen.




.

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 8):
CM will eventually fly into more secondary cities that LAN serves

I found that statement questionable if we are thinking about the South American landscape exclusively.




.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 9):
CM matches also AR.

Doubtful. AR currently operates in Buenos Aires based on their dual operations at both EZE and AEP; this fact is hard to match any CM PTY-EZE operations.
On the other hand, CM PTY-COR 7x weekly operates every day in Cordoba ranged at [03:17 - 04:16]. This schedule is not friendly in order to match the AR flights.

Regards.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4391 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 4489 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 12):
LAN has plans to open a focus-city later in Central America later on. LAN can fly SCL-LIM-PTY, LIM-SAL, LIM-SJO, LIM-GUA, etc.

Source, please.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8752 posts, RR: 5
Reply 17, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 4483 times:
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Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 15):

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 8):
Sky Airline is still growing and offers a reasonable domestic network with-in Chile! But I hear that they are not interested in AV/TA anymore. AV/TA are currently courting Chile's smallest domestic airline, PAL.

In other words, the possible second daily TA SCL-LIM operated by Sky Airline as daylight service would never happen.

It will operate as SCL-ANF-LIM 5x weekly and SCL-LIM 2x weekly.

Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 15):

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 8):
CM will eventually fly into more secondary cities that LAN serves

I found that statement questionable if we are thinking about the South American landscape exclusively.

CM could never fly into all the cities that LAN serves in South America. Aside from Colombia, CM still does not operate into many cities. But then again their model differs from LANs. And eventually there will be another LAN. LAN doesn't have 100+ planes on order for fun!


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8752 posts, RR: 5
Reply 18, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 4482 times:
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Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 16):
Quoting SCL767 (Reply 12):
LAN has plans to open a focus-city later in Central America later on. LAN can fly SCL-LIM-PTY, LIM-SAL, LIM-SJO, LIM-GUA, etc.

Source, please.

Like I just stated LAN ordered 90 Airbus planes for regional and domestic operations alone! You should know that LAN will fly into Central America by now. A focus city at SJO is a waste of time because it is low yielding and will soon face capacity constraints!


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11416 posts, RR: 59
Reply 19, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 4487 times:
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Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 15):
Doubtful. AR currently operates in Buenos Aires based on their dual operations at both EZE and AEP; this fact is hard to match any CM PTY-EZE operations.
On the other hand, CM PTY-COR 7x weekly operates every day in Cordoba ranged at [03:17 - 04:16]. This schedule is not friendly in order to match the AR flights.

Matches in terms of a potential merger. CM complements AR, and do not compete with them. And now both uses B73G.
I was just showing that CM potential mergers could be with G3 and AR.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4391 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 4457 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 18):
You should know that LAN will fly into Central America by now. A focus city at SJO is a waste of time because it is low yielding and will soon face capacity constraints!

That statement didn't answer my former question.
I've only read some press releases about the possibility of future plans to Central America on LAN, but I ignore about true details coming from the airline.
The only clue that I could visualize is the current service offered by AIRES operating [Pereira -Panama City] and [Cartagena - Panama City]. However, this fact is so far to suggest us about a new focus city in Central America developed by LAN system.

Regards.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8752 posts, RR: 5
Reply 21, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4433 times:
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Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 20):
Quoting SCL767 (Reply 18):
You should know that LAN will fly into Central America by now. A focus city at SJO is a waste of time because it is low yielding and will soon face capacity constraints!

That statement didn't answer my former question.
I've only read some press releases about the possibility of future plans to Central America on LAN, but I ignore about true details coming from the airline.
The only clue that I could visualize is the current service offered by AIRES operating [Pereira -Panama City] and [Cartagena - Panama City]. However, this fact is so far to suggest us about a new focus city in Central America developed by LAN system.

Why do you and others have a hard time believing that LA/JJ will serve Central America? Look at LATAM's website again! Well then again TA/AV have been ignoring a lot of things. For example, TA is extremely week in that domestic market. Also, TA/AV seem hesitant to operate long-haul flights from UIO/GYE and LIM. No problem, since LAN flies those routes. It will be interesting to see how TA responds when LP launches LIM-ASU, LIM-MVD, LIM-GIG, LIM-IGR, LIM-IGU, LIM-IPC, LIM-ROS, etc. Plus I'm sure that TA isn't even aware of LP's increased frequencies to LPB/VVI, and LIM-SCL. But then again, I do not even think TA is aware that LP operates LIM-CCS-LIM daily (B763) and next year will start flights between LIM and MAR. And it seems that they certainly aren't aware that LA/LP operate both LIM-LAX 11x weekly, LIM-SFO 4x weekly, LIM-JFK daily, and LIM-MIA 13x weekly. Plus LIM-MEX will soon operate daily, and of course TA forgot about the LIM-CTG, LIM-CUN and LIM-PUJ routes.


User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4391 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 4396 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 21):
Why do you and others have a hard time believing that LA/JJ will serve Central America? Look at LATAM's website again!

This discussion is becoming extremely contradictory.
Read carefully your input number 12 one more time:  
Quoting SCL767 (Reply 12):
LAN has plans to open a focus-city later in Central America later on. LAN can fly SCL-LIM-PTY, LIM-SAL, LIM-SJO, LIM-GUA, etc.

My first question left unsolved.

Regards.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8752 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 4398 times:
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Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 22):
My first question left unsolved.

Visit LAN.com and click on the LAN TAM merger feature. Then look at the presentations. It's that simple.


User currently onlineA388 From Netherlands Antilles, joined May 2001, 9720 posts, RR: 11
Reply 24, posted (3 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 4285 times:

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 3):
Except of course that CM isn't in an alliance

CM will eventually do so as CO is a Star member now.

A388


25 yellowtail : I firmly belived this too, but am beginning to have second doubts based on the codeshares being developed between AV/TA and LH
26 A388 : I'm not sure I'm following this but to look at the current situation we have the following scenario: CO left the Skyteam and CM followed. CO later jo
27 SJOtoLIR : I didn't find any reference there about the installation of a focus city in Central America developed by LAN. I would stop this discussion until any
28 Post contains links Ota1 : I just came across a very interesting Spanish report about Star's strategy for BCN. It's basically about how they are going to turn it into a major hu
29 OP3000 : The three are probably AV, TA and 2K (Aerogal). If that happens, Star has definitely placed its bets on LATAM joining oneworld.
30 jfk777 : THe Decision Star has to make is which is worth more to them, the northern or southern part of Latin America ? Lets see, the biggest economy in South
31 OP3000 : The issue may be that Star doesn't think it has more than a 25-35% chance of keeping TAM. In that case, the choices left would be AV//TA and CM. Whil
32 SJOtoLIR : GRU and [BOG or PTY] are different markets for Star Alliance. When Varig and Mexicana belonged to that alliance, each attended separate geographical
33 Summa767 : Which slide in particular? In slide 14 there is the follwing in point 2: 2. Lima a Norte/Centro Am. Rutas brasileñas que alimentan las rutas a EEUU
34 jfk777 : Mexico is covered very well by United(continental) and European airlines flying to MEX. Mexicana had zero presence in Brazil and its only long haul r
35 SJOtoLIR : Panama and Ecuador are experiencing minimal presence of Star Alliance there and supplied by CO exclusively. This void may be complemented by AV/TA. R
36 EddieDude : You forget AC. AC has a lot of flights to MEX and all the major resort destinations, and not only from YYZ, but from several other Canadian airports.
37 2travel2know2 : CM doesn't get revenue guarantees to operate KIN and PAP, actually PTY O/D can pay the current schedule/aircraft type, that's probably why CM has sho
38 scl767 : I keep on forgetting about the KIN/PAP flights. The single hub operation is what makes CM so attractive to a lot of customers. CM has the right locat
39 2travel2know2 : Just for fun lets count the major Southamerican cities where CM doesn't currently fly from PTY: 4 Colombia: SMR, CUC (market on the Venezuelan side of
40 OP3000 : I P5 may try some more BOG-based routes, but frankly they wasted a lot of time and now the competition has become much stiffer. I don't know about 20
41 C010T3 : SLZ and CGB? No way! GYN perhaps, but not those two.
42 2travel2know2 : Both SLZ and CGB seem to be OK for E190 range from PTY. Pretty sure there are people in those Brazilian cities who want holidays in MCO/MIA or somewh
43 SCL767 : I can see CM at CUE, PIU, TPB, CIX, CUZ, IQT, AQP, LPB, ASU, AGT, IGU, IGR, ROS, SLA, TUC, MDZ, ANF, IQQ, etc. CCP may draw traffic away from SCL. Pl
44 SJOtoLIR : The launch of LP LIM-IPC with 763 may demonstrate that Mataveri International Airport may work from other points into the continent, besides LA SCL-I
45 2travel2know2 : Easter Island authorities can't stop CM from flying to IPC if CM has it as an stop enroute to PPT - very wild idea on a B737-700 - but those authorit
46 OP3000 : Any idea if they could get authority to fly into Galapagos?
47 SCL767 : CM can fly PTY-IPC if CM wanted too, (IPC will undergo expansion). However they would have to get permission to fly onwards to PPT. No, CM cannot fly
48 2travel2know2 : I believe Panama-Chile open skies may allow CM to fly to international destinations via a Chilean airport. The issue could be if France allows CM tra
49 jfk777 : Copa and Avinaca are going to Star. Sad for Skyteam which seemed a better fit for AV but German Efronowich has spoken.
50 2travel2know2 : Efranovich tells CM where to go? Sure you don't mean "TA and AV.."
51 OP3000 : IMO it is not going to happen, but to re-visit the topic of this thread: Now that AV/TA and CM have both joined Star simultaneously, does anyone think
52 jfk777 : I do MEAN Avianca and TACA, Copa can call Chicago for directions.
53 yellowtail : Sure seems a bit more plausible now, doesn't it. I will say this, if they don't merge, look for one to exit within 5 years. It will be like CO and DL
54 2travel2know2 : Could Colombia block AV/TA entry to Star Alliance if CM/P5 is in the same alliance. Together, AV and P5 will dominate the Colombian market and if they
55 Post contains links kiwiandrew : http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-colombia-explore-cooperation.html ... Avianca and Copa Colombia plan to consider a codeshare and other forms o
56 jfk777 : With both Copa and Avianca /Taca joining Star hasn't the time for another airline mega-merger arrived ? These two airline groups should merge since he
57 kiwiandrew : I have heard a couple of rumours to suggest that the Brazilian government does not want to see LATAM go ahead , not sure whether the rumour is true ,
58 RCS763AV : Indeed, i don't know waht will happen. But for others, there is no problem in accepting this. Just look at Chile and Peru where LAN completely domina
59 2travel2know2 : Once upon a time TA and CM had talks and nothing extraordinary came out of that. CM and AV never got that close, CM bought P5 instead. CM looks like i
60 jfk777 : IF TAM was to remain independent in Star, the alliance would expect them to do something within South America. Even on the BOG-GIG/GRU routes and GRU
61 2travel2know2 : No Brazilian airline is currenlty using any of the 28-35 weekly frequencies allowed by the latest Panamá-Brazil bilateral. But there are a couple of
62 SJOtoLIR : I second that. JJ dropped its old code-share agreement with TA in 2007 in favor of LAN and it seemed like a logic business move for JJ. I do not disp
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