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Virgin Atlantic Strategic Review Begins  
User currently offlinevirginson937 From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2009, 71 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 14691 times:
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Founder Sir Richard Branson has asked Deutsche Bank to study Virgin Atlantic's market position and options for the future, including a join with Star Alliance or Skyteam. This could be interesting... thoughts?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...gic-review-of-Virgin-Atlantic.html

Will

66 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineBMIFlyer From UK - England, joined Feb 2004, 8810 posts, RR: 58
Reply 1, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 14393 times:

Quoting virginson937 (Thread starter):
thoughts?

About time!

I could potentially (given the current code shares that VS has) see them be a prime candidate for *Alliance membership.



Sometimes You Can't Make It On Your Own
User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3592 posts, RR: 10
Reply 2, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 14191 times:

I don't see any merger with LH or BMI as possible. LH will never pay SRB's price or any royalty for the Virgin name. LH already owns 10% of LHR slots and could duplicate VA's route structure much more cheaply than paying what SRB will want.

Joining Skyteam is a bit more likely or even a merger with AF/KL, but not an assured in any sense.

SRB wants out, that is the one thing that is assured. It might be too late.


User currently offlineDl767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 14098 times:

Air France would probably enjoy having them for their London market. I could see them trying to join skyteam. But with all their new planes on order it seems like they could start a lot more thin routes to the US for example and use some US codeshares better. I can't see star alliance wanting VS since virgin and united compete on a lot of LHR routes

User currently offlineaerohottie From Australia, joined Mar 2004, 802 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 13925 times:

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 2):
I don't see any merger with LH or BMI as possible

Who said anything about merging?
The original post talks about options for joining an alliance, not merging or selling out...

Quoting Dl767captain (Reply 3):
I can't see star alliance wanting VS since virgin and united compete on a lot of LHR routes

I dont see the logic in this... UA would be interest in working with VS in and out of LHR just as AA and BA work together...



What?
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19738 posts, RR: 59
Reply 5, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 13918 times:

I can give him some advice: offer connectivity to the rest of Europe through your LHR hub. Either partner with someone or do it yourself, but you are losing a lot of business because not everyone flying to Europe is flying to London.

User currently offlineDl767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 13863 times:

Quoting aerohottie (Reply 4):
I dont see the logic in this... UA would be interest in working with VS in and out of LHR just as AA and BA work together...

I just don't see UA/CO wanting to give up traffic to Virgin when they don't really need to. They seem to have their own strong LHR presence. The AA and BA part has a lot more to do with the ATI and joint venture just like UA/CO/(i think LH?) and AF/KL/DL got.


User currently offlinehuaiwei From Singapore, joined Oct 2008, 1114 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 13821 times:

Quoting Dl767captain (Reply 6):
I just don't see UA/CO wanting to give up traffic to Virgin when they don't really need to. They seem to have their own strong LHR presence. The AA and BA part has a lot more to do with the ATI and joint venture just like UA/CO/(i think LH?) and AF/KL/DL got.

The new UA do not have a strategic alliance with an European carrier of equal status as that between AA/BA. It is not about "giving up traffic" to a competitor, but all about sharing resouces and such that both parties have one less key competitor to deal with.

And even in the unlikely scenario that both UA or LH do not see much use in adding VS, they will want to make a defensive move and stop VS from falling into others' hands.



It's huaiwei...not huawei. I have nothing to do with the PRC! :)
User currently offlineBOACCunard From United States of America, joined Dec 2009, 864 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 13704 times:

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 2):
LH will never pay SRB's price or any royalty for the Virgin name.

Well, while I do not expect it to happen, it is not as though airlines have never dropped the Virgin name before.

Quoting Dl767captain (Reply 6):
The AA and BA part has a lot more to do with the ATI and joint venture just like UA/CO/(i think LH?) and AF/KL/DL got.

And if VS and BD were to merge, why do you think it would not join the Atlantic Plus Plus JV with UA, AC and LH?

Quoting huaiwei (Reply 7):
The new UA do not have a strategic alliance with an European carrier of equal status as that between AA/BA.

UA and LH have had this kind of relationship since long before AA and BA did.



Getting There is Half the Fun!
User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3756 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 12302 times:

Quoting BMIFlyer (Reply 1):
About time!
VS should've done this when AA/BA/IB was waiting to get approved instead of kicking and screaming "no way BA/AA" and crying "monster monopoly at LHR".

That being said, I see a UA/LH tie-up and Star Alliance membership as the best fit, where SQ sells its VS stake to LH. More LHR slots for all three sides (VS, LH, UA).

Quoting BOACCunard (Reply 8):
it is not as though airlines have never dropped the Virgin name before.

So true. Remember Virgin Nigeria? It's now Nigerian Eagle. If LH gets its hands on VS, expect a LH-branded name for both VS and Lufthansa-owned bmi like "Lufthansa UK", as while the Virgin brand is stronger overall, I feel that the Lufthansa brand is stronger in air travel. Likewise, AF/KL could rename the airline "Interjet" or "Britjet" a la AF/KL's Cityjet brand.

[Edited 2010-11-08 05:12:14]


"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
User currently offlineFlyCaledonian From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 2091 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 12248 times:

VS partnering with UA/CO/AC in the TATL joint venture? I'd have thought unlikely unless Sir Richard ends his involvement with VS, as Willie Walsh would I'm sure be thinking pot and kettle for such an about face.

A link-up with AF/DL would be interesting, as Skyteam is probably the weakest alliance at LHR. There is very litlle route duplication and thus VS could build on its strength of being a O&D carrier at LHR whilst linking with an alliance that could offer more flights to/from LHR as a major international destination.



Let's Go British Caledonian!
User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3592 posts, RR: 10
Reply 11, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 12080 times:

Quoting aerohottie (Reply 4):
Who said anything about merging?
The original post talks about options for joining an alliance, not merging or selling out...

If you read the cited article by the OP you would see that the review involves alot more than just if and what alliance to join. The first sentence specifically talks about SRB selling his stake in Virgin Atlantic. The alliance aspect is secondary to the article.

Here is the first scenario mentioned by the article (fair use):

"One option would see Sir Richard sell down his stake to allow Virgin Atlantic, which has around £2bn sales, to become part of a wider airline grouping – potentially with Lufthansa or a Gulf carrier, such as Emirates or Ethihad. He would then be expected to receive royalty payments for use of the Virgin brand."

Quoting aerohottie (Reply 4):
I dont see the logic in this... UA would be interest in working with VS in and out of LHR just as AA and BA work together...

VS doesn't have the feed at LHR like BA does. BMI already is a part of *A and has much better feed at LHR than VA does. VA just doesn't bring that much to the party for LH. It would make more sense (although still limited) for AF/KL or for Emirates.


User currently offlineoffloaded From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2009, 886 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 11933 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 5):

They already do Doc.

Just for example, VS publishes fares
ex LIS (using TP for LIS LON),
ex MAD (using BA for MAD LON),
ex AMS (using KL for AMS LON),
ex FRA (using BD for FRA LON),
ex DUB (using BD or EI for DUB LON),
ex MOW (using BD for MOW LON),
ex PAR (using AF, BA, BE, 9F for PAR LON)...



To no one will we sell, or deny, or delay, right or justice - Magna Carta, 1215
User currently offlineVS11 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 1111 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 11761 times:

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 11):
BMI already is a part of *A and has much better feed at LHR than VA does.

Feed for what? The only thing that LH can do with BMI is have them feed LH flights, and that's what they are doing. BMI has no chance of surviving on its own - no viable strategy.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 11):
VA just doesn't bring that much to the party for LH. It would make more sense (although still limited) for AF/KL or for Emirates.

I would disagree with both counts. LH can benefit a lot from a stronger VS as this will hedge the dominance of One World. BA was the only European carrier that has a home competitor like VS, and that has been very beneficial for LH. London is not Frankfurt and there is a reason why everyone wants to fly to LHR. Putting together BD and VS into one carrier within Star Alliance can result in a very profitable position for the Star Alliance carriers - the NYC-London shuttle that One World is creating could be replicated and applied to other cities in the US when you throw CO/UA in.


User currently offlinehuaiwei From Singapore, joined Oct 2008, 1114 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 11527 times:

Quoting BOACCunard (Reply 8):
UA and LH have had this kind of relationship since long before AA and BA did.

Define "this kind".



It's huaiwei...not huawei. I have nothing to do with the PRC! :)
User currently offlineBrianDromey From Ireland, joined Dec 2006, 3920 posts, RR: 9
Reply 15, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 11048 times:

Quoting VS11 (Reply 13):
London is not Frankfurt and there is a reason why everyone wants to fly to LHR.

I think the point is that VS has done pretty well to establish itself as a viable airline at LHR, under the nose of BA. VS has a fairly strong network from LHR and a lot of it is O&D traffic. I'm surprised how wide the network actually is...

Africa (all ex )LHR
Accra, Cape Town, Johannesburg, Lagos, Nairobi
Asia (all ex LHR)
Delhi, Dubai, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tokyo
Australia (all ex LHR)
Sydney (via HKG)
Caribbean (all ex LGW. Additionally BGI and UVF ex MAN)
Antigua, Barbados, Cuba, Grenada, Jamaica, St Lucia, Tobago
USA ( all ex LHR except LAS & MCO, both ex LGW and MAN)
Boston, Chicago(Seasonal, I believe), Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York (EWR & JFK) Orlando, San Francisco, Washington DC

Looking at the netowrk VS just does not offer much to LH itself. However VS could be a solution to the BD problem. The middle east and USA networks could complement each other. Strategically it would make the *A network out of London a lot stronger and leave SkyTeam a distant third. In the same vein what would VS offer skyTeam, other than preventing LH/*A from consolidating their position in London?

Brian.



Next flights: MAN-ORK-LHR(EI)-MAN(BD); MAN-LHR(BD)-ORK (EI); DUB-ZRH-LAX (LX) LAX-YYZ (AC) YYZ-YHZ-LHR(AC)-DUB(BD)
User currently offlineGCT64 From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2007, 1398 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 10618 times:

I would have thought it was pretty clear (and, perhaps, the choice of Deutsche Bank as the banker goes to confirm it?):

1. LHR has been shown to be the only European hub that can support two based long-haul carriers in direct competition (VS & BA)
2. LHR also has two short/medium-haul carriers based (BA & BD)
3. LHR is, therefore, probably the only European hub that can act as a hub for two alliances
(all of these driven by the huge O&D of the London market)

Logic says that LH should buy VS, merge it with BD, and create a Star Alliance LHR-based short/medium/long-haul carrier.

The problem, it appears to me, is that LH feel they overpaid one British entrepreneur for one airline (BD) and are, therefore, unlikely to meet another British entrepreneur's price tag for another (VS).

My guess .... the bankers try to get Emirates (or Etihad or Singapore) involved to scare LH into bidding (no European airline wants an Emirates backed fleet of A380s running globally out of LHR) and create an auction-process to ramp up the price.



Flown in: A30B,A306,A310,A319,A320,A321,A332,A333,A343,A346,A388,BA11,BU31,B190, B461,B462,(..51 types..),VC10,WESX
User currently offlineUshermittwoch From Germany, joined Jan 2004, 2965 posts, RR: 16
Reply 17, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 9887 times:

Please join SkyTeam!

My 0,02 here.  



Where have all the tri-jets gone...
User currently offlineANstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5245 posts, RR: 6
Reply 18, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 9717 times:

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 9):
Likewise, AF/KL could rename the airline "Interjet" or "Britjet" a la AF/KL's Cityjet brand.

Why would they get rid of the Virgin branding? It has value in the UK market - and Virgin is primarily a UK O&D Airline.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 11):

VS doesn't have the feed at LHR like BA does. BMI already is a part of *A and has much better feed at LHR than VA does. VA just doesn't bring that much to the party for LH.

Granted VS does not have the feed - hence why the frequencies aren;t as high as BA's - but they do have strong brand loyalty in a huge (UK) market. Why would it be attractive to LH? Well being able to provide feed to VS would also allow VS to expand and that would harm BA/AA who are major rivals with LH.


User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3592 posts, RR: 10
Reply 19, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 9679 times:

Quoting GCT64 (Reply 16):
The problem, it appears to me, is that LH feel they overpaid one British entrepreneur for one airline (BD) and are, therefore, unlikely to meet another British entrepreneur's price tag for another (VS).

I agree, and SRB wanting continuing royalties on top would make it even more unpalatable for LH.

Quoting GCT64 (Reply 16):
My guess .... the bankers try to get Emirates (or Etihad or Singapore) involved to scare LH into bidding (no European airline wants an Emirates backed fleet of A380s running globally out of LHR) and create an auction-process to ramp up the price.

There are some ownership restrictions imposed by the EU (50%+) that will make it difficult for Emirates or another non-EU entity to make a successful bid to buy out SRB. I don't think LH will be scared into bidding. LH already probably has in mind a number that they would be willing to pay, and not a Euro more. LH through BD already owns 10% of LHR slots and I just don't see them being willing to overpay for another 3% of LHR slots, but maybe I'm wrong.


User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1904 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 9558 times:

Quoting GCT64 (Reply 16):
Logic says that LH should buy VS, merge it with BD, and create a Star Alliance LHR-based short/medium/long-haul carrier.

The problem, it appears to me, is that LH feel they overpaid one British entrepreneur for one airline (BD) and are, therefore, unlikely to meet another British entrepreneur's price tag for another (VS).

  

I think you summarized it perfectly. VS brings some destinations (East Asia, Caribbean, and some African flights) that are not currently served by BD. In addition, they add a well known brand name. However, the price could be a factor for LH.

This issue is more about VS needing to find an alliance to assist in their long term strategy rather than an Star/ Skyteam needing VS. VS will have to do a good job in marketing themselves to Star / Skyteam to show the value they could add to the alliance. I do not think either alliance will view them as a major contributor to the overall alliance, but there is definately some value it could add to both alliances.

[Edited 2010-11-08 10:15:00]

User currently offlineUAL777UK From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2005, 3356 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 8991 times:

Quoting huaiwei (Reply 7):
The new UA do not have a strategic alliance with an European carrier of equal status as that between AA/BA.

Are you sure about that?

Quoting huaiwei (Reply 14):
Define "this kind".

JV, across the Atlantic with CO/AC amongst others, shall we continue?

LH and UA are years ahead of BA and AA.


User currently offlinef4f3a From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2004, 246 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 8863 times:

Its amazing that in europe virgin and srb are the only l laul carrier in europe that is not a former national carrier.
Its a shame they are not flexible and have access to european markets eg interconnecting flights or even cdg fra hubs. Their product is very good I hope it is not lost if it is bought out.


User currently offlineBA174 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2009, 760 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 8789 times:

Quoting ANstar (Reply 18):
Why would they get rid of the Virgin branding? It has value in the UK market - and Virgin is primarily a UK O&D Airline.

Exactly why it's going wrong. Their business model isn't working in the modern age anymore like it did in the 1980s. People now want connections and travel with ease which VS currently do not have- O&D is useless at LHR. It works for BA and indeed VS at LGW as it is a O&D airport


User currently offlinesxb From France, joined Sep 2008, 136 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (3 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 8401 times:

I read a lot that VS should find a way to feed their LHR operations... but, so far, every time I have been flying VS, I didn't feel like they needed more passengers. It could be an expensive and difficult plan with little benefit.

Instead, shouldn't VS start operations out of LHR (and UK in general)?
Couldn't they start something a la openskies or LH Italia by operating a few flights from ORY/CDG, or AMS, MUC, FRA?
I am sure that a lot of people would be interested in flying VS just for the hype to begin with and progressively build a solid customer base. They have an interesting product which is different from AF,KL, LH and the Virgin brand is strong.

They have their A333 coming soon, some could be allocated to these operations.
Then, by flying from some of the listed airports to JFK, passengers could continue with VX to LAX or SFO.



SXB
25 GT4EZY : An article elsewhere gives mention of some sort of tie up with Easyjet aswell. Although I am not sure how LHR would figure in this. Easyjet too are ap
26 LHRNUE : Why Deutsche Bank as advisor? Do they have any expertise in this market?
27 Post contains images virginson937 : More than likely, well it was SRB who chose them so im sure he knows what hes doing with his money, or i hope so.... Will
28 mogandoCI : LH can do this : 1. buy out VS's stake from SQ 2. shift bmi slots to open more VS long-haul destinations using smaller planes (787 is the right step)
29 LHRFlyer : Agreed. LH has also been identified as a potential acquirer of SAS, TAP etc. It has only so much cash to spend on acquisitions and is still trying to
30 SevenHeavy : Unless you can substantiate that with some facts and figures I would beg to differ...please share how VS's business model isn't working - they've jus
31 runway23 : There aren't really 20'000 possibilities here. -Either Branson keeps VS as a standalone but joins an alliance. -Sells to one of four possible airlines
32 VS11 : Branson selling VS to BA is absolutely the last thing he would ever do. It is just a conceptual option. He has been fighting BA and what it stands fo
33 Richard28 : I would say he has been fighting for competition for ages, and not "BA and what it stands for"... if the competition is now deemed to be foreign carr
34 runway23 : Branson's not an idiot. If LH come up with 500 million and BA with 750 million he will go for BA. Aviation has seen more surprising things in the pas
35 jfk777 : Its doubtful Branson wants to cash out and retire to his country house or his Caribean Island. The most logical place for Virgin to go would be the St
36 LAXtoATL : No he is not. But there are other factors than money. Let's not forget that billionaires tend to have huge egos. I don't know Branson personally, but
37 Richard28 : I think the wild card here could be Etihad. Etihad has buckets of cash, and its own issues, in how it competes and distinguishes itself from its huge
38 DLPMMM : The article states otherwise (about SRB thinking about cashing out, not where he wants to live. It is not like SRB rund the day to day operations at
39 CHRISBA777ER : For my money, I can see them staying as they are, but diversifying the route structure - by being a little savvy with the new routes. I can see them a
40 VS11 : This is an overstatement - while it appears that he wants to sell, you don't know why. He realizes that whoever wants to invest from now on would wan
41 ANstar : They already have this alliance. Frequent FLyer Earn/Burn and status is reciprocal across all airlines as of earlier this year. Virgin GROUP have a s
42 LHRFlyer : I agree there is a lot of potential on "long and thin" routes and Virgin has suffered in not having aircraft suited to such routes. However, BA is mo
43 LHRFlyer : In the hypothetical scenario of a deal with BA, traffic rights would not be an issue. Post Open Skies BA is free to fly to where it likes in the US a
44 Post contains images DLPMMM : Yeah, right I have seen the SQ financial statements. The VS investment has clearly been written down extensively, although the exact amount of the wr
45 VS11 : Publicly traded equities where there is a market value - yes, not for private companies. VS is a private company. You better do some more research. A
46 david_itl : Seems there are 6 destinations in the pipeline for MAN. No timescale for them but there's a couple of fairly surprising choices.
47 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : Ok I'll bite. Barbados. Las Vegas. Mumbai St Lucia Washington Jamaica
48 david_itl : BGI already running (but I'd prefer it to be 2 A330s and not 1 744) and LAS is next year and this not included in the 6. The other 4 cities you've pu
49 jfk777 : Open skies to the USA but Virgin flies to many Asian and African destination too.
50 GT4EZY : No offence but why don't you tell us whats on the bloody list then rather than being so cryptic?
51 virginson937 : Mumbai isn't in service at the moment and not sure when it will return if it does, and both Mumbai and Washington are operated at Heathrow as Busines
52 planesarecool : Because it probably doesn't exist. VS have no intention of starting anything other than leisure routes from MAN, mainly filling the small void that B
53 skyhigh : Sorry for the stupid question but I always get confused when talking about the Virgin group. Would Virgin joining an alliance give that alliance acces
54 LHRFlyer : No. They are separate airlines that are separately owned and controlled.
55 Kleiner : One of the four is San Diego.
56 LHRFlyer : From MAN? Not a chance. This would be a long shot from LHR.
57 skipness1E : David why are Virgin Atlantic giving you strategic and commercially confidential information to post on the internet? BA have just re-launched LHR-SA
58 DLPMMM : Private companies are valued at book or market, unless there is extenuating circumstances such as impairment where there is little likelihood of reco
59 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : Yes but I bet he can spell "Currencies".
60 Post contains images DLPMMM : There, I fixed it for you. Sorry I forgot to spell check.
61 VS11 : Actually, I do. You are talking about a value of a company being written down to zero. I am talking about the performance of the investment - it does
62 DLPMMM : The Return on Investment and the Internal Rate of Return are generally expressed as a percentage on an annualized basis. Without a time frame denomin
63 danfearn77 : If only BD had a better inter European network it could do a bit of damage to BA. Yes, yes, YES!! When I fly to the US I struggle to choose between D
64 mattdell : I would love it if they joined SkyTeam. I'm not much for Star Alliance.
65 SR4ever : Sounds quite logical, but given the current fleet of BD and VS (+388 and 333 coming soon), it'd be more advisable to stick to Airbus (332, 333, 359 a
66 WindowSeat : VS would fit nicely in SkyTeam I think. Considering Air France's failed attempt at LHR-LAX, now they will have the flat bed product that the LAX marke
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