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Republic Third Quarter Record Ex-Items Profit  
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2986 posts, RR: 30
Posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3728 times:

Republic Airways Holdings Announces Third Quarter 2010 Earnings Reports Record Ex-Items Profit

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Republ...oldings-bw-598856190.html?x=0&.v=1


Total operation:

$711,865m revenue

$73.0m operating income

$49.2m pre-tax income exlcuding special items

minus $7.8m special items

$35.1m pre-tax income

$21.3m net income


Breakdown of pre-tax income by division


Fixed Fee
$22.7m (no special items onthe fixed-fee side)


Branded (Frontier/Midwest/Lynx)
$19.4m pre-tax profit for branded operations exluding special items

minus $7.6m merger and aircraft return costs
minus $0.2m change in value of fuel hedges

$11.6m pre-tax profit for branded operation including special items

32 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineloggat From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 666 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 3658 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
$49.2m pre-tax income exlcuding special items

$42.9m I think.



There are 3 types of people in this world, those that can count, and those that can't.
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2986 posts, RR: 30
Reply 2, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 3561 times:

Quoting loggat (Reply 1):
$42.9m I think.

Thanks for catching the typo -- I read your number three times before I realized I'd typed mine wrong.

On a separate but related note, they announced they are issuing more stock -- 12 million shares -- and their stock price is off about 6% on the news of that dilution. I don't think the price is a reaction to the earnings.

[Edited 2010-11-08 07:19:37]

User currently offlineDaus From United States of America, joined May 2005, 289 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 3516 times:

Some detail on the stock offering...

Frontier Airlines' parent firm plans stock offering
http://www.jsonline.com/business/106887698.html


User currently offlineberyllium From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 3426 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 2):
On a separate but related note, they announced they are issuing more stock -- 12 million shares -- and their stock price is off about 6% on the news of that dilution. I don't think the price is a reaction to the earnings.

So, whenever a company issues the stock, the price always (or as a general rule) goes down that much due to dilution?


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25570 posts, RR: 86
Reply 5, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 3408 times:
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Quoting beryllium (Reply 4):
So, whenever a company issues the stock, the price always (or as a general rule) goes down that much due to dilution?

Almost always. It means there are more shares out there, which dilutes the value of the existing shares.

What's happening today is profit taking.

As I posted last week, the stock has been very frothy recently, flirting with its 52 week highs. Now short term traders who came in within, say, say the last six months have a clear sign that the stock won't go any higher for a while, so they take their profits.

Old Wall Street mantra: buy the rumor - sell the news.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlinelucky777 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 3386 times:

Am i the only one who wishes airlines would simply report either a profit or loss without the standard (excluding) after every earnings report? It's like me saying, "well, minus my monthly mortgage payment of $1,500, my monthly free cash flow is $1,900." Unfortunately that mortgage payment ain't goin' anywhere so why try to cherry coat it? And i'm not trying to pick on Republlic, it seems EVERY U.S. airline does this. In fact, i can't remember the last time an airline came out and simply said we made/lost XXX this quarter.

User currently offlineberyllium From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 3369 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 5):
Almost always. It means there are more shares out there, which dilutes the value of the existing shares.

What's happening today is profit taking.

As I posted last week, the stock has been very frothy recently, flirting with its 52 week highs. Now short term traders who came in within, say, say the last six months have a clear sign that the stock won't go any higher for a while, so they take their profits.

Old Wall Street mantra: buy the rumor - sell the news.

The retiring CFO of RAH (Mr. Cooper) is certainly a wise man. I guess, his talent to foresee the future told him that this dilution was coming and he dumped his stock just in time.  


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25570 posts, RR: 86
Reply 8, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 3358 times:
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Quoting beryllium (Reply 7):
The retiring CFO of RAH (Mr. Cooper) is certainly a wise man. I guess, his talent to foresee the future told him that this dilution was coming and he dumped his stock just in time.  

Sure. But he also exercised a whole bunch of new options on RJET stock at the same time.

And few people can ever quite predict what the market will do. You have one business paper saying they hit estimates and another saying they just missed.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineberyllium From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 3303 times:

The stock is down 13.0 - 13.5% by now...
If that's how the market reacts on the news about RJET issuing new shares, I find it nothing short of amazing.
Maybe this decline is indeed related to the announced financial results?
Yes, RAH squeezed a profit in the 3rd quarter, but for the 9-month period they still show a loss (the one of only two major airlines out there (the second one is AA) who is in the red after the first 9 months of 2010)...


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25570 posts, RR: 86
Reply 10, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 3296 times:
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Quoting beryllium (Reply 9):
If that's how the market reacts on the news about RJET issuing new shares, I find it nothing short of amazing.

Welcome to the wonderful world of Wall Street.

Quoting beryllium (Reply 9):
Yes, RAH squeezed a profit in the 3rd quarter, but for the 9-month period they still show a loss (the one of only two major airlines out there (the second one is AA) who is in the red after the first 9 months of 2010)...

But that was already known - it's been in the analyst estimates for months - so I don't why it would affect the pps today.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineFRNT787 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1329 posts, RR: 15
Reply 11, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 3279 times:

Quoting beryllium (Reply 9):
Yes, RAH squeezed a profit in the 3rd quarter, but for the 9-month period they still show a loss (the one of only two major airlines out there (the second one is AA) who is in the red after the first 9 months of 2010)...

This has been discussed time and again. They lost a lot during Q1 due to integration of the brands.

For this quarter, they had one of the best quarters in company history. That is squeezing out a profit to you??

You are trying very hard.  



"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
User currently offlineN809FR From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 182 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 3255 times:

Really wish I had foreseen this and dumped my shares, that hit my net value hard.

User currently offlineberyllium From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 3255 times:

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 11):
For this quarter, they had one of the best quarters in company history. That is squeezing out a profit to you??

You are trying very hard.

Don't sweat it, kid.
Just compare the margins in the 3rd quarter of UA, CO, DL, etc. with that of RAH, and you will see who is rolling and who is squeezing.


User currently offlineberyllium From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 3247 times:

Quoting N809FR (Reply 12):
Really wish I had foreseen this and dumped my shares, that hit my net value hard.

We had to see what Hal Cooper was doing lately - he dumped a lot of RJET shares recently, and very soon after that decided to retire from the industry. He is a CFO - I bet he did what he did because he expected those shares to tank.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25570 posts, RR: 86
Reply 15, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 3231 times:
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Quoting beryllium (Reply 14):
We had to see what Hal Cooper was doing lately - he dumped a lot of RJET shares recently, and very soon after that decided to retire from the industry. He is a CFO - I bet he did what he did because he expected those shares to tank.

You are aware that he sold almost half his shares at $8, not at $9? You also ignore that he exercised options, meaning that eh has continuing risk in the company.

You seem determined that there is "funny business" here. Well, maybe,

But if there is any "funny business", then he runs the risk of investigation by the SEC, a massive fine and a possible jail sentence.

Pretty much everyone on Wall Street remembers Martha Stewart and her jail term.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineFRNT787 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1329 posts, RR: 15
Reply 16, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 3225 times:

Quoting beryllium (Reply 14):
We had to see what Hal Cooper was doing lately - he dumped a lot of RJET shares recently, and very soon after that decided to retire from the industry. He is a CFO - I bet he did what he did because he expected those shares to tank.

He also exercised a load of options. Again, this has been mentioned at least 5 times that I can count on various threads.



"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
User currently offlineberyllium From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 3172 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 15):
You seem determined that there is "funny business" here. Well, maybe,

I don't know. But you don't reject this possibility either (saying "Well, maybe...).
What's really funny, though, is that the company announces quarterly profit ("one of the best quarters in company history" as some say here), and the stock tanks 15% immediately after the news.
That's hilarious.
The company finally managed to turn its struggling business into the black (at least for the time being), and the market does not give two figs about that. As it turns out, the news that the company will issue new shares is much more important and has much more profound effect on the stock price than the news about the profitable quarter.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25570 posts, RR: 86
Reply 18, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3131 times:
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Quoting beryllium (Reply 17):
What's really funny, though, is that the company announces quarterly profit ("one of the best quarters in company history" as some say here), and the stock tanks 15% immediately after the news.
That's hilarious.

Why is it hilarious?

They have already issued shares of about 35 million. They are issuing 12 million, about one third of the already issued stock.

In theory, the stock should fall by much more than 15%.

Quoting beryllium (Reply 17):
As it turns out, the news that the company will issue new shares is much more important and has much more profound effect on the stock price than the news about the profitable quarter.

That's right. Wall Street prices for the future, not for the now. As I said to you: buy the rumor - sell the news.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1551 posts, RR: 12
Reply 19, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3121 times:

Quoting beryllium (Reply 17):
What's really funny, though, is that the company announces quarterly profit ("one of the best quarters in company history" as some say here), and the stock tanks 15% immediately after the news.
That's hilarious.

You're really showing how little you understand about stocks or even economics in general. As has been explained to you, RJET sold a bunch of additional stocks to finance the 6 E90s on order. Normally, in any marketplace, when you introduce additional product, the price for the product goes down. RJET stock "tanking" today has more to do with the dilution of the stock than the Q3 results.

I'm sorry that there's not any negative F9 news to report today but I'm sure you'll keep looking.



717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlineberyllium From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3115 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 18):
That's right. Wall Street prices for the future, not for the now. As I said to you: buy the rumor - sell the news.

Certainly. Stock price reflects Wall Street's long-term expectations - and since the price went down 15% after the news about the profitable quarter, these expectations are obviously not that great at all. (I guess, expectations for the financial results for the full year 2010 have something to do with it, too).


User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2986 posts, RR: 30
Reply 21, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3110 times:

Republic stock closed at $4.85m in early July. In the four months since then the stock as risen 87%, closing at $9.07.

Today it is down $1.40 as I write this, to $7.67. $7.67 is up a mere 58% from that July 6 low.

A large hit today? Obviously. However when a stock shoots up this much in such a short period of time, it's not a huge surprise to see this kind of drop. A lot of the upswing came as Southwest bid for AAI and pulled similar stocks like RAH upward.

Just as it would be incorrect to try to assert that most of that 87% increase was due to incredible improvement in business fundementals, it is just as incorrect to say that today's drop is due to similar fundemental issues to the downside.

Trying to tie movement of a stock to company fundementals, especially in the short term, is always problematic. And when it comes to airline stocks, it's downright....um....I'll just say misguided.

The type of drop RAH is seeing today is probably larger than one might expect based on just the news of stock offering. But given the skyrocket RAH stock has been the last few months, there's almost certainly plenty of locking in recent gains. And there might well be a belief among some that the recent highs were not justified by reality because there's no indication Republic is a good sale candidate a la AirTran.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25570 posts, RR: 86
Reply 22, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3100 times:
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Quoting beryllium (Reply 20):
Stock price reflects Wall Street's long-term expectations - and since the price went down 15% after the news about the profitable quarter, these expectations are obviously not that great at all. (I guess, expectations for the financial results for the full year 2010 have something to do with it, too).

If you're just going to ignore what I have posted within this thread, there doesn't seem to be much point in posting anything.

A full year loss has been priced in by the analysts for several months - I posted it here, months ago, as a response to you.

You refuse to accept that the price dive is due the dilution caused by the share issuance, despite the headlines:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNN0819850120101108?rpc=44

"UPDATE 2-Republic Airways sets share offering, stock dives

Helane Becker, an analyst with Dahlman Rose, said dilution from the stock offering was pressuring the shares."


Ms. Becker has been covering airline stocks on Wall Street for years, but I guess, in your book, she can only be wrong.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineTVNWZ From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 2408 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3069 times:

Quoting beryllium (Reply 7):
The retiring CFO of RAH (Mr. Cooper) is certainly a wise man. I guess, his talent to foresee the future told him that this dilution was coming and he dumped his stock just in time.
Quoting mariner (Reply 15):
You are aware that he sold almost half his shares at $8, not at $9? You also ignore that he exercised options, meaning that eh has continuing risk in the company.

And probably used the proceeds of the stock sale to pay taxes. Common. Where else would he get money to pay the tax man for the exercised options? Probaably does not have a lot of cash laying around. At least he shouldn't if he is a good CFO.


User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2986 posts, RR: 30
Reply 24, posted (4 years 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3045 times:

Quoting lucky777 (Reply 6):
Am i the only one who wishes airlines would simply report either a profit or loss without the standard (excluding) after every earnings report? It's like me saying, "well, minus my monthly mortgage payment of $1,500, my monthly free cash flow is $1,900." Unfortunately that mortgage payment ain't goin' anywhere so why try to cherry coat it? And i'm not trying to pick on Republlic, it seems EVERY U.S. airline does this. In fact, i can't remember the last time an airline came out and simply said we made/lost XXX this quarter.

Understandable, but there's a reason companies (not just airlines) do this. Without breaking out unusual items, they give the impression that their total earnings reflect the results of their core operation...and therefore that they are indicators of what to expect going forward.

Without breaking out unusual items, the quarterly trends and year-over-year comparisons would be totally misleading, and would be very subject to manipulation up and down. On the flip side they can't ignore special items becuase they are in fact "real". So they break them apart as we see, which yields us lots of different numbers to glean through.

Unfortunately, a clean, simple statement of earnings isn't accurate, and an accurate one isn't simple. .


25 mariner : That's right. The profit was already known and predicted - they hit estimates. What is different today is what was not known - the issuance of new st
26 TVNWZ : It matters. That's why the stock went down. The short-term investors took their profit and skedaddled. The sell-off brought down the stock as these s
27 PlanesNTrains : Future profit and loss performance is an unknown, but people gamble on what they think will happen by investing in the company. However, there is not
28 Post contains links beryllium : The profit did not hit the estimate. It fell short of expectations. Here is a quote from WSJ: "Republic shares fell sharply Monday after third-quarte
29 Post contains links FRNT787 : They fell four cents short of analysts expectations. (58 cents per share, analyst average was 62 cents) They gave a reason. What more do you want? Bu
30 Post contains links mariner : You really don't pay attention to what I write, do you? I said in post #8: So now we have this: http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNN0819850120101108?
31 mariner : For anyone not used to the stock market, the last three days have followed an almost classic pattern. In any major, unexpected movement, Wall Street a
32 Post contains links FRNT787 : Here is an interesting article: "Republic Airways offers Best Value in Airlines Industry" http://www.zacks.com/research/get_news.php?id=314l1080
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