N14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2313 posts, RR: 25 Posted (2 years 6 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 7921 times:
Maybe not the best time to start a new A 380-thread, well, but as they say - life goes on...
Airbus JL is reporting that potential A 380 are disappointed about the fact that have to wait a considerable peroid of time until they could take over their first unit.
"I am essentially sold out until the end of 2014, and I have got open positions in 2015..." Funny language, isn't it? Ok, never mind.
I am thinking about the recent report about THY analysing both, the B 748i and the A 380. Was it only salesman bla bla bla or is Jl actually referring to on-going sales campaigns?
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26690 posts, RR: 83 Reply 1, posted (2 years 6 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 7867 times:
With about 200 frames left for delivery, Airbus would need to deliver over 40 per year to open up a position in (late) 2015 and I just don't see them being able to meet that goal since they are going to be hard-pressed to make 20 this year thanks to the Trent 900 issues.
Now, if we assume carriers like ILFC, VS and IT will "indefinitely defer" (since Airbus might not let them cancel based on how they treated TG), that takes 21 frames out of the equation, but still, I can't see how that opens a slot in 2015.
ZKCIF From Lithuania, joined Oct 2010, 225 posts, RR: 0 Reply 2, posted (2 years 6 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 7858 times:
Where had all those "potential" guys been earlier? noone had banned them from coming to the pub earlier and ordering the pint. but first come first served.
Stitch> EK birds will end the delivery in 2017. consequently, there are fewer birds to be delivered before 2015 than you count
ikramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21026 posts, RR: 60 Reply 3, posted (2 years 6 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 7814 times:
This is the problem with EK "owning" the A380. It has created a situation, combined with the delays in ramp-up, where carriers really couldn't start building a fleet until 2015 or later.
It makes building fleets of 77W more attractive. It is the same phenomenon that has lead to the growth of the A330. It is "good enough" compared to the 787 and A350, considering the A330 can be had soon, the others, who knows when?
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
Aesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 4782 posts, RR: 9 Reply 4, posted (2 years 6 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 7211 times:
With another plane, it might be possible to negotiate with a big customer to delay some deliveries to give the slots to a new customer (negotiate meaning money of course), but with the A380 it's a little different, almost any A380 customer would be in direct competition with another A380 customer (and the A380 being the jewel of the fleet), so there is little hope current customers would be willing to negotiate.
But the biggest problem is the production anyway, and specifically the outfitting. Maybe a no frills A380 with 850 Y seats without IFE could be inserted in the production line without trouble ? Far easier to outfit that the fancy firsts and businesses !
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
TK787 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4104 posts, RR: 13 Reply 5, posted (2 years 6 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7095 times:
I doubt that it is TK. TK has enough problems with 60 new planes arriving in the coming few years to IST. No room at IST in the near future, no infrastructure at IST to accommodate 380. With IST-JFK going double daily 77W next year, no need for 380. Not just yet!
cpd From Australia, joined Jun 2008, 4879 posts, RR: 44 Reply 6, posted (2 years 6 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7014 times:
Quoting Aesma (Reply 4): aybe a no frills A380 with 850 Y seats without IFE could be inserted in the production line without trouble ? Far easier to outfit that the fancy firsts and businesses !
Not very attractive to customers of the airlines to be packed in like sardines.
I suspect this might be one of the American legacy carriers with a quite large fleet of B747 planes.
I also suspect the RR engine debacle will steer a lot of buyers toward the Engine Alliance planes.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26690 posts, RR: 83 Reply 8, posted (2 years 6 months 3 days ago) and read 5905 times:
Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 7): If TG really don't want theirs, why could they not simply accept them and then sell them on to a carrier wanting an early delivery?
I can see a few issues:
The conversion costs of taking a plane in TG's configuration and turning it into one with the new customer's configuration.
TG's planes will have Trent 900 power, which means they would need to be sold to BA, CZ, LH, MH, QG, SQ or VS. EK, the likeliest buyer, uses EA power so they're not an option.
A380 values have been holding steady, but TG would still have to pay Airbus and than park them in a hangar until they could sell them, tying up a fair bit of capital for an indeterminate period of time.
astuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9135 posts, RR: 96 Reply 9, posted (2 years 6 months 3 days ago) and read 5756 times:
Quoting Stitch (Reply 1): With about 200 frames left for delivery, Airbus would need to deliver over 40 per year to open up a position in (late) 2015
??????
Deliveries of the 200 backlog extend to the end of 2017 t least, so not hitting 40 per year for the next 5 years in doesn't have to dictate that there are no slots in 2015
At approximately 1 per month, EK alone have at least 24 deliveries to be made in 2016 and 2017, and it might be more than that.
Thorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 11, posted (2 years 6 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 5370 times:
Quoting Stitch (Reply 1): With about 200 frames left for delivery, Airbus would need to deliver over 40 per year to open up a position in (late) 2015 and I just don't see them being able to meet that goal since they are going to be hard-pressed to make 20 this year thanks to the Trent 900 issues.
Now, if we assume carriers like ILFC, VS and IT will "indefinitely defer" (since Airbus might not let them cancel based on how they treated TG), that takes 21 frames out of the equation, but still, I can't see how that opens a slot in 2015.
200 frames can not be delivered in a bit over 4 years, same for 180 frames. This can only mean that the customers have spread their delivery dates over a longer period of time, 2016 and beyond. This is normal. Airbus has five years of production sold for the A330, but if one ordered today he could get the first one probably as early as mid-2012. Carriers don't want ten or twenty new planes delivered within one single month when they place orders of that size.
Quoting ikramerica (Reply 3): This is the problem with EK "owning" the A380. It has created a situation, combined with the delays in ramp-up, where carriers really couldn't start building a fleet until 2015 or later.
It makes building fleets of 77W more attractive. It is the same phenomenon that has lead to the growth of the A330. It is "good enough" compared to the 787 and A350, considering the A330 can be had soon, the others, who knows when?
I disagree. The A332/333 are roughly the size of 788, 789, A358, and A359. The A380 is a lot bigger than the 77W. Four class layouts are 231 (NH 77W), 450 (QF A380). Slaveship layouts are 517 (NH domestic 773), ~840 (UU A380). That's only around 60% of the capacity.
Quoting TK787 (Reply 5): I doubt that it is TK. TK has enough problems with 60 new planes arriving in the coming few years to IST. No room at IST in the near future, no infrastructure at IST to accommodate 380. With IST-JFK going double daily 77W next year, no need for 380. Not just yet!
IST certainly has its limits when it comes to space. However, it seems easier to me to build a new terminal, especially in the southern military part, than to build a new runway.
N14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2313 posts, RR: 25 Reply 12, posted (2 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3239 times:
Quoting TK787 (Reply 5): I doubt that it is TK. TK has enough problems with 60 new planes arriving in the coming few years to IST. No room at IST in the near future, no infrastructure at IST to accommodate 380. With IST-JFK going double daily 77W next year, no need for 380. Not just yet!
Well, I thought about TK due to the recent article about TK analysing the B 748i an the A 380.
However, VN as well as Skymark could be the operators, to which JL referred.
scbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 11358 posts, RR: 50 Reply 13, posted (2 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 3125 times:
Quoting ikramerica (Reply 3): This is the problem with EK "owning" the A380.
So, are you suggesting Airbus shouldn't have sold those A380s to Emirates?
The issue isn't the number of A380s that EK has purchased, it's a combination of Airbus not being able to pump enough out each month and other airlines having not ordered sooner.
BHXDTW From Eritrea, joined Feb 2005, 1086 posts, RR: 6 Reply 14, posted (2 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3070 times:
..forgive me for my ignorance, but... considering the earliest times for new delivery now will be approx 2015.. will this not push more airlines into 748i territory ?
Thorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 15, posted (2 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 2988 times:
Quoting scbriml (Reply 13): So, are you suggesting Airbus shouldn't have sold those A380s to Emirates?
The issue isn't the number of A380s that EK has purchased, it's a combination of Airbus not being able to pump enough out each month and other airlines having not ordered sooner.
Airbus would certainly make more money with 9 customers buying 10 each than with one customer buying 90. However, if the customer is there and pays a price that allows profits it would be irresponsible to send them away.
It hasn't made too much of an impression on others it seems, there is no rushing-in of carriers afraid that EK ordered another 75 an pushed the earliest available slots three years further away.
Quoting BHXDTW (Reply 14): ..forgive me for my ignorance, but... considering the earliest times for new delivery now will be approx 2015.. will this not push more airlines into 748i territory ?
It could, but it is not clear whether it will. Besides, how much earlier are the first 747-8I slots than 2015? The A380 still has issues, but there are almost fourty already delivered. The 747-8I didn't even have its first flight. Besides, the backlog of 747-8F isn't that small either and the delivery schedule is probably not set in stone, especially considering that the 787 needs so many resources at Boeing.
Another factor is that airlines plan to use those planes for 20-30 years. Why not wait 1-2 years for the plane that you really want, instead of having the other earlier?
scbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 11358 posts, RR: 50 Reply 16, posted (2 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 2943 times:
Quoting Thorben (Reply 15): Airbus would certainly make more money with 9 customers buying 10 each than with one customer buying 90.
Very probably, but the issue under discussion isn't profitability of the A380, but availability. Would it be available any earlier if your 9 airlines had 10 each on order versus EK having 90 on order? Probably not. Especially given Airbus's inability to deliver more than 2 per month.
ikramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21026 posts, RR: 60 Reply 17, posted (2 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 2725 times:
Quoting scbriml (Reply 13): So, are you suggesting Airbus shouldn't have sold those A380s to Emirates?
I think there is a problem in that by "crowding out" competition by cornering the A380 market as EK has done, it does lead to some carriers looking for other ways to build a longhaul fleet, as there is no way to get enough A380s in a reasonable amount of time. Those may be lost A380 customers for good.
Would you rather have 8 customers with 10 orders each who are likely to order 10 more in the future, or 1 customer with 80 on order? I'd take the 8...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
scbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 11358 posts, RR: 50 Reply 18, posted (2 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2481 times:
Quoting ikramerica (Reply 17): Would you rather have 8 customers with 10 orders each who are likely to order 10 more in the future, or 1 customer with 80 on order? I'd take the 8...
Well, Airbus has one mega customer and other smaller, blue-chip customers, so I think they've got the best of both. Do you feel the same way about the 748i, where one customer has 80% of the airline backlog?
Either way, availability is driven by backlog and production rate, regardless of how many customers make up that backlog.
Thorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 19, posted (2 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2373 times:
Quoting scbriml (Reply 16): Would it be available any earlier if your 9 airlines had 10 each on order versus EK having 90 on order? Probably not. Especially given Airbus's inability to deliver more than 2 per month.
If you had the 9 with 10 planes each, the availability would go even further down the road because Airbus technicians would have to learn 8 more cabin layouts with all the problems (wiring etc.) that go along with that. With 90 for EK they can profit of having only one learning curve. Even if EK had nine different layouts, it would go faster, because many components (seats, galley, showers, etc.) would be similar.
Quoting scbriml (Reply 18): Well, Airbus has one mega customer and other smaller, blue-chip customers, so I think they've got the best of both. Do you feel the same way about the 748i, where one customer has 80% of the airline backlog?
Forget the blue-chip talk. Wasn't JAL a blue-chip, too?
We are yet to see an airline non-VIP customer for the 747-8I that has no A380s on order. LH and KE combine, all others take the A380 and leave the gap to the 77W or A346 open.
Burkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4248 posts, RR: 2 Reply 20, posted (2 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2312 times:
JL really is pressing the production side (Gallois, Enders) : I could sell more if you were able to produce them! - and tries to push them as hard as possible in public now. Add his commitment to the A320NEO, and you see that there must be an interesting management war going on behind the scenes.
2175301 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 982 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (2 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2308 times:
Quoting astuteman (Reply 9): Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
With about 200 frames left for delivery, Airbus would need to deliver over 40 per year to open up a position in (late) 2015
??????
Deliveries of the 200 backlog extend to the end of 2017 t least, so not hitting 40 per year for the next 5 years in doesn't have to dictate that there are no slots in 2015
At approximately 1 per month, EK alone have at least 24 deliveries to be made in 2016 and 2017, and it might be more than that.
Rgds
It has been announced in the A380 Production Thread that Airbus is projecting 24 deliveries in 2011. That is down from what I believed was an earlier stated goal to work towards a production rate of 30 for 2011.
So, any free delivery slots gets pushed back again given the current backlog; and the concept that the A380 may someday be produced at a rate of 40 per year looks more like a dream.
airbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 6870 posts, RR: 7 Reply 23, posted (2 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 2154 times:
Quoting BHXDTW (Reply 14): ..forgive me for my ignorance, but... considering the earliest times for new delivery now will be approx 2015.. will this not push more airlines into 748i territory ?
I doubt it because the A380 is really that much better and most probably prefere to wait an extra 2-3 years to get it than to operate an aircraft that puts them at a significant disadvantage against the competition. If you order a 748i now how soon can you get it? 2013?
Seems like a waste of money for an airliner whose production output will likely dry up significantly in about 5-6 years, and no longer require 2 production lines. What's the ROI for an A380 production line? How many years does it have to be active to justify the costs incurred in building, equipping, and staffing the facility?
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26690 posts, RR: 83 Reply 24, posted (2 years 5 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 1972 times:
Airbus is utilizing the current line at around 50% of capacity, so I don't believe that is the problem to getting more A380s out the hangar.
25 david_itl: So you are forecasting no sales then for 5 or 6 years. So repeat business (i.e. converting options) is not going to happen? If they can get 1 airline
26 airbazar: That's not at all what I'm implying. What I'm saying is that the current backlog is as large as it will ever be. And I state that for 2 reasons: 1) Y
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