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Narrowbody Market Closed For Business In China?  
User currently offlineTangowhisky From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 903 posts, RR: 7
Posted (3 years 8 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4849 times:

At the 2010 Zhuhai Airshow, Comac announced orders for C919s from six customers. The purchasing airlines or lessors were China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Hainan Airlines, China Southern Airlines, CDB Leasing Company, and GE Capital Aviation Services. The ARJ21 is close to having 250 orders all from Chinese customers as well.

Both of these aircraft have structures made by the same 3 to 4 Chinese manufacturers except for the systems which are all from US or Europe. One of these Chinese structures supplier is a major partner for the CSeries.

Despite all this, not a single RJ, B737, A320, or CSeries order was announced. But the Chinese did buy a few widebodies.

So will the Chinese buy less and less Western built narrowbody jets and RJs, and buy only widebodies from Boeing and Airbus?

Are the Chiense going to protect their market for narrowbody jets or was the airshow an exceptional event?

[Edited 2010-11-23 13:51:36]


Only the paranoid survive
13 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinedl767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (3 years 8 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4810 times:

Quoting Tangowhisky (Thread starter):
So will the Chinese buy less and less Western built narrowbody jets and RJs, and buy only widebodies from Boeing and Airbus?

It wouldn't surprise me that they buy Russian and Chinese planes unless the A320 or 737 is just far more appropriate for that specific order.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Thread starter):
Are the Chiense going to protect their market for narrowbody jets or was the airshow an exceptional event?

China tends to protect its own industry so I'm sure they will be "pressured" to buy Chinese products I'm not sure how it will play out though


User currently onlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12361 posts, RR: 47
Reply 2, posted (3 years 8 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4747 times:
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Quoting Tangowhisky (Thread starter):
Despite all this, not a single RJ, B737, A320, or CSeries order was announced.

No, but Chinese airlines have already bought plenty of A320s and 737s this year. The big purchase of A320s was announced just before this show.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Thread starter):
At the 2010 Zhuhai Airshow, Comac announced orders for C919s from six customers.

Nobody ordered more than a handful.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Thread starter):
The ARJ21 is close to having 250 orders all from Chinese customers as well.

This might be more successful against it's Western RJs, but all the sales are for the smaller 70-90 seater. The two big boys don't play in that playground.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineTangowhisky From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 903 posts, RR: 7
Reply 3, posted (3 years 8 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4723 times:

Quoting dl767captain (Reply 1):
China tends to protect its own industry so I'm sure they will be "pressured" to buy Chinese products I'm not sure how it will play out though

They are known to protect their markets and not play on a level field. The fact that they kept the Yuan at a benchmark level against the US dollar (rather than float it in the same way as other currencies) has been a huge issue of making sure they remain a place of cheap labor/exports, and expensive to import.

They no longer want to build small props and jets, as the C919 is a testament that they don't want to go slow like the Canadians and Brazilians.



Only the paranoid survive
User currently offlineAirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (3 years 8 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 4619 times:

Quoting Tangowhisky (Thread starter):
Are the Chiense going to protect their market for narrowbody jets or was the airshow an exceptional event?
Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 3):
They are known to protect their markets and not play on a level field. The fact that they kept the Yuan at a benchmark level against the US dollar (rather than float it in the same way as other currencies) has been a huge issue of making sure they remain a place of cheap labor/exports, and expensive to import.

But yet, to be honest, there is absolutely no reason why they shouldn't protect their own market and, let's face it, it's a big enough market. To be completely fair, the US will readily protect it's own markets and citizens in many spheres when it suits them to do so but yet, like shown above, it is very ready to criticise others.


User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 959 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (3 years 8 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 4576 times:

Quoting Tangowhisky (Thread starter):
Are the Chiense going to protect their market for narrowbody jets or was the airshow an exceptional event?

The latter.

Even if the Chinese carriers order the C919 in prodigious quantities, the production rate will be unable to satisfy China's demand for commercial aircraft. They will need to import A320 or 737NG-sized aircraft indefinitely.


User currently offlinePolymerPlane From United States of America, joined May 2006, 991 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (3 years 8 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 4551 times:

Quoting dl767captain (Reply 1):
China tends to protect its own industry so I'm sure they will be "pressured" to buy Chinese products I'm not sure how it will play out though

I don't think they were "pressured" to buy chinese product. It is the government that actually buy planes in China.



One day there will be 100% polymer plane
User currently offlinekanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 3383 posts, RR: 26
Reply 7, posted (3 years 8 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 4551 times:
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Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 5):
Even if the Chinese carriers order the C919 in prodigious quantities, the production rate will be unable to satisfy China's demand for commercial aircraft. They will need to import A320 or 737NG-sized aircraft indefinitely.

exactly... they will have many teething problems which unlike A & B's efforts will not be made public for us to ponder...


User currently offlineTangowhisky From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 903 posts, RR: 7
Reply 8, posted (3 years 8 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 4361 times:

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 5):
Even if the Chinese carriers order the C919 in prodigious quantities, the production rate will be unable to satisfy China's demand for commercial aircraft. They will need to import A320 or 737NG-sized aircraft indefinitely.

Indefinitely?

Quoting AirNZ (Reply 4):
To be completely fair, the US will readily protect it's own markets and citizens in many spheres when it suits them to do so but yet, like shown above, it is very ready to criticise others.

It is not a criticism, rather a question based on a potential trend. You sure the US are so protectionist?

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 6):
It is the government that actually buy planes in China.

The government has a plan. Step by step they learn from the West using technology transfer procurement policies, etc. until they have the specific industry of their own and are eventually capable of meeting their own domestic needs. Aerospace, rail, and shipbuilding are a few of the examples. In fact I applaud their government in their massive plans to build a real economy. My question about the future of nwestern built narrowbody sales is not a criticism to anyone, rather the thoughts from my fellow bloggers.



Only the paranoid survive
User currently offlinewedgetail737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5890 posts, RR: 6
Reply 9, posted (3 years 8 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 4330 times:
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The protectionism of China for their fledgling aerospace industry is a matter of life or death for any Chinese airline. It's all political. Unlike the more democratic countries like the US, other Asian countries, Europe, Australia etc., the Chinese civil air authority could withdrawal or cancel a Chinese airlines' operating authority simply by looking funny. So it makes perfect sense that many of the Chinese airlines have committed to the new Chinese aircraft or face shutdown.

You don't see other airlines from other countries jumping on the bandwagon by committing to the Chinese airliner. Do you?


User currently offlineTangowhisky From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 903 posts, RR: 7
Reply 10, posted (3 years 8 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4246 times:

Quoting wedgetail737 (Reply 9):
The protectionism of China for their fledgling aerospace industry is a matter of life or death for any Chinese airline. It's all political. Unlike the more democratic countries like the US, other Asian countries, Europe, Australia etc., the Chinese civil air authority could withdrawal or cancel a Chinese airlines' operating authority simply by looking funny. So it makes perfect sense that many of the Chinese airlines have committed to the new Chinese aircraft or face shutdown.

You don't see other airlines from other countries jumping on the bandwagon by committing to the Chinese airliner. Do you?

Thank you and I also agree with DfwRevolution that they will have low production rates, especially in the beginning. But regardless, the Chinese airlines will be increasingly facing a precarious situation regardless of long delivery and reliability problems while under the microscope.



Only the paranoid survive
User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2047 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (3 years 8 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 4077 times:

They will continue to buy western aircraft until they can support their national carriers with aircraft built in China. Barring a major change in government, they will stick to their long term plan.

User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6096 posts, RR: 34
Reply 12, posted (3 years 8 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 3998 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 2):
Nobody ordered more than a handful.

Yes, the big 3 Chinese airlines only ordered 5 each and only 15 options.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 10):
they will have low production rates

The target is for 150 a year.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinesofianec From Germany, joined Aug 2007, 237 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (3 years 8 months 1 day ago) and read 3253 times:

With all the dollar reserves they have accumulated and with the whopping trade surplus they have with the US they would be stupid to miss on the opportunity to buy some american goods from Boeing with them dollars. BTW Airbus aircraft are also priced in US dollars so same thing there.

So no they are not goint to stop buying narrowbodies from both Boeing and Airbus. C919 will be prominent in fleets across China for sure but definitely not in numbers comparable with A320/B737NG.

---



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