Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
AF447 - New Search To Start In February '11  
User currently offlineRubberJungle From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (3 years 8 months 5 hours ago) and read 14354 times:

What do you think of the chances of success, after all this time?

And do you think Airbus will help pay for it?

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...af447-to-launch-in-early-2011.html

49 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinebreiz From France, joined Mar 2005, 1914 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (3 years 8 months 4 hours ago) and read 14144 times:

Quoting RubberJungle (Thread starter):
What do you think of the chances of success, after all this time?


The results of underwater searches come from a mix of method and luck.
A new area will most probably be investigated or previous ones with a new approach. Luck will its part.
Remember that in the case of the Titanic, a much more massive target on a nearly flat seabed as explained before, the French team carried-out 80% of the search w/o results, the American team finding her in the last 20%. Their equipment were equivalent, so was their method. Luck was with Ballard.


User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2686 posts, RR: 25
Reply 2, posted (3 years 8 months 3 hours ago) and read 14047 times:

Would be interesting to know why they decided to start another mission. Just because they think it's appropriate or because they came to some new conclusions when analysing the old data. I checked the BEA website but didn't find any new information.

User currently offlineflywrite From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2009, 191 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 8 months 2 hours ago) and read 13831 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

I think there's such a public interest in this particular crash that all parties want to try and find some definitive answers to what happened. And I guess there's pressure from the families of the victims. I presume there'll be very little chance of recovering anything useful from data recorders if they're found at this late stage?

As a coincidence I was reading about Korean Air 858 which was blown up over the Andaman Sea in 1987. Interestingly no attempt was ever made to find or recover that aircraft. I'm sure there have been other similar cases.

AF447 has become one of those crashes that even those without an interest/knowledge of aviation seem to remember.

I'm personally wishing them luck in making ANY progress in their search.


User currently offlineprebennorholm From Denmark, joined Mar 2000, 6384 posts, RR: 54
Reply 4, posted (3 years 8 months 1 hour ago) and read 13762 times:

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 2):
I checked the BEA website but didn't find any new information.

The article says that this fourth search will be conducted by the French government (not BEA).

It also says: French transport minister Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet and transport secretary Thierry Mariani disclosed the plan following a review of the technical investigation into the accident.

Speculation: It is about time for BEA to publish the final report. It will of course include a lot of uncertainties about the accident. Which could tricker a reaction from public and press about "how can the government live with such uncertainties and do nothing", in case they didn't do anything.

The chance of finding something is very low, especially considering that the three former extremely careful and expensive searches were unsucessful. And with the BEA presumeably not involved this time, I would guess that this fourth search is a fairly low key thing which is partly designed to ease the public reaction following the final report.



Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs, Preben Norholm
User currently offlineltbewr From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13028 posts, RR: 12
Reply 5, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 13535 times:

There is no doubt that French pride and politics is behind this decision. I would suggest the goal is to recover the 'black boxes' or enough more of the a/c to hopefully find a cause that was an 'act of god' that was not foreseeable or one where the pilots were unable to avoid or recover from. It is also important to figure out, as with any major air disaster, the cause to make changes to prevent a recurrence.

User currently offlineMKEdude From South Korea, joined May 2005, 1011 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 13383 times:

It's been 18 months and counting since the accident. If they are restarting the search there must either be some new evidence or some new technology that will give them a better chance at success. What do the investigators have at their disposal now that they did not have before?


"You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline." Frank Zappa
User currently offlinepylon101 From Russia, joined Feb 2008, 1426 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 13287 times:

Oh, guys.
After watching a National Geographic documentary about ocean bed - I lost hope.
The movie was not related in any way.
But they showed seabed pretty close to AF447 crash site. Computer animation demonstrated seabed without water - and it was just monsterous.
I have got a creepy feeling - as high and weird looking mountains are down there.
Have anybody watched the movie?


User currently offlineflyorski From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 987 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 13253 times:

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 7):

Was that Drain the Ocean that you saw?

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 5):
There is no doubt that French pride and politics is behind this decision. I would suggest the goal is to recover the 'black boxes' or enough more of the a/c to hopefully find a cause that was an 'act of god' that was not foreseeable or one where the pilots were unable to avoid or recover from

I disagree. Doubt it would be "pride" or just "politics." I have also not seen anything suggesting they would disregard evidence that the crash was avoidable.

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 5):
It is also important to figure out, as with any major air disaster, the cause to make changes to prevent a recurrence.

   This I can agree with.



"None are more hopelessly enslaved, than those who falsly believe they are free" -Goethe
User currently offlinepylon101 From Russia, joined Feb 2008, 1426 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 13212 times:

Quoting flyorski (Reply 8):
Was that Drain the Ocean that you saw?

Right. That one. And the Mid Oceanic Ridge is very close to the site.


User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19371 posts, RR: 58
Reply 10, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 13150 times:

Quoting flywrite (Reply 3):

As a coincidence I was reading about Korean Air 858 which was blown up over the Andaman Sea in 1987. Interestingly no attempt was ever made to find or recover that aircraft. I'm sure there have been other similar cases.

Not much point. The cause was known. I don't think there was much to gain from a recovery.

Quoting flywrite (Reply 3):

AF447 has become one of those crashes that even those without an interest/knowledge of aviation seem to remember.

AF447 is also a mystery. How does a modern airliner just fall out of the sky in cruise, storm or no storm? Modern airliners are not supposed to just fall out of the sky in cruise without a damned good reason like "they got shot down." And the human desire to solve a "what-the-heck-is-going-on-here?" mystery is insatiable.


User currently offlinemgmacius From Poland, joined Jun 2007, 68 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 12870 times:

Quoting RubberJungle (Thread starter):
What do you think of the chances of success, after all this time?

Buckley's chance to say the least - when the crash happened, there was a lot of discussion over the possibility of finding any important part of the evidence. The problem is, that we don't know exactly where it crashed, when (we can only suspect by ACARS messages, but they may be incomplete as well). The seabed in this area is far worse than Himalayas! So sending down tiny little probe to find one small element is just as impossible, as finding evidence of life on Mars by the Pathfiner probe... Unless you bump on it, there is no chance!



734, 735, 738, 744, 763, 772, 773, A319, A320, A380, Dash8, E170, Saab340A
User currently offlinebreiz From France, joined Mar 2005, 1914 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 12687 times:

Quoting RubberJungle (Thread starter):
And do you think Airbus will help pay for it?


I heard today on French radio news that both Airbus and Thales were very eager to find the wreck.
They are facing a law-suit from passengers families, after Air France did its best to avoid any responsibility.
We may therefore assume that both companies will participate in the founding of this 4th search.


User currently offlineKaiarahi From Canada, joined Jul 2009, 2948 posts, RR: 29
Reply 13, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 12688 times:

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 4):
The article says that this fourth search will be conducted by the French government (not BEA).
Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 4):
with the BEA presumeably not involved this time,

BEA is an agency of the French government. Numerous news sources (NYT, Figaro, Le Monde) report that the committee representing the victims' families expects to meet Monday with Transports and BEA to be provided details of the new search.



Note à moi-même - il faut respecter les cons.
User currently offlineDeltaB757TUS From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 75 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 11868 times:

Best of luck to them to find the wreckage. It would be nice to shed some light as to what exactly happened to AF447.


A/C Flown: CR1, CR2, CR7, CR9, B727, B732, B733, B735, B752, B762, B764, SF3, EM2, D95, M88
User currently offlineHalophila From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 646 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 11607 times:

I seriously hope they find more wreckage but I have to say that luck is really against them. Where the airliner is believed to have gone down is amongst the highest sedimentary accretion rates in the ocean, thanks to the Amazon River plume, which is highly productive and discharges sediments at the rate of around 2 tonnes per second. Whatever is down there is likely buried under a thick coat of mud by now, especially smaller pieces.

I find it interesting (and with respect to those lost, interesting from a scientific standpoint) that the O2 masks did not deploy and the plane evidently hit the water in a flat angle with high rate of vertical velocity. Also interesting that the aft galley section recovered withstood the impact fairly well, but we are missing virtually everything else.The pilot's body was recovered amongst the first. The plane's tail was recovered. Question: Where, if there is one, is the crew rest module on the a332? near the tail? And was Cpt Dubois at the helm when the plane hit trouble, or might he have been there?

This is entirely speculative... I'm not a pilot nor profess to be an aviation expert.



Flown on 707, 717, 727, 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 741 742 743 744 74SP 757 753 762 763 772 773 77W D10 DC9 M11 M80 M87
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12128 posts, RR: 52
Reply 16, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 11186 times:

My guess is, and this is only a guess, the wreckage is spread over many miles, even if it broke up in a fairly small area upon impact with the water. With the water in that area up to 2-3 km (1.24 - 1.86 miles) deep, there would be plenty of time for the currents to spread large and small debris over a very large area. Heavier parts like the engines and landing gear or wings (in the remained fairly intact) will fall faster, but still be moved some distance from the crash site.

What are the prevailing major currents in that area, and how fast are the currents at different depths? A current of just 4-6 knots can move most items great distances. The size, weight, and shapes of individual parts, as they sink will also dictate how far they travel underwater before hitting the bottom, ridgeline, or underwater valley. Also, would the extreme depth crush many components, like the DFDR and DCVR? Even if found, these and other data chips may no longer contain much useful information.

To give an idea of how far a sunken object can drift in the currents while sinking, Dr. Ballard fount the wreck of the KM Battleship KMS Bismarck nearly 20 miles ESE of the position the RN reported to have sunk her.

The Bismarck had a displacement of some 52,000 tons (full displacement load), and was probibly around 42,000 tons when she was sunk. So an A-330 weighing about 200 tons (intact) would be easily moved by the currents.


User currently offlinerailker From Canada, joined Aug 2006, 171 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 10987 times:

And while a certain few large pieces were found, much as we all want answers and for important pieces of the aircraft to be found -- take a look at the Mayday episode for Swissair 111, the dozens upon dozens of industrial bins filled with metal fragments you could hold easily in the palm of your hand, and that's mostly all that was left of that aircraft after it impacted the water. That plus all the sedimentation and currents ... a daunting task indeed

User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12128 posts, RR: 52
Reply 18, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 10875 times:

Quoting railker (Reply 17):
take a look at the Mayday episode for Swissair 111, the dozens upon dozens of industrial bins filled with metal fragments you could hold easily in the palm of your hand, and that's mostly all that was left of that aircraft after it impacted the water.

That is true, but look at TW-800, it hit the water in a near vertical attitude, and had broken up inflight, yet many large peices were found.

Of course Swiss-111 and TW-800 were in "only" about 150' (45m) of water and recovery was much easier.


User currently offlineCassi From Hungary, joined Apr 2010, 87 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 10227 times:

Yesterday the mother of one of the AF447 victims, Nora O. committed suicide. Her son, Arnold N., a 11-year-old Hungarian boy was flying home after a visit to his aunt in Brazil. Let's hope that she was the last victim of this tragic flight. R.I.P.

User currently offlineconnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 20, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 9872 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
With the water in that area up to 2-3 km (1.24 - 1.86 miles) deep, there would be plenty of time for the currents to spread large and small debris over a very large area.

KC - water depth in the area is quite variable due to the subsurface topography, but can range up to 18-20,000 feet (~6km).

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
Also, would the extreme depth crush many components, like the DFDR and DCVR? Even if found, these and other data chips may no longer contain much useful information.

From Aerospaceweb.org:
Current regulations require the black boxes to survive an impact of 3,400 g's for up to 6.5 milliseconds. This rapid deceleration is equivalent to slowing from a speed of 310 miles per hour (500 km/h) to a complete stop in a distance of just 18 inches (45 cm). This requirement is tested by firing the CSMU from an air cannon to demonstrate the device can withstand an impact force at least 3,400 times its own weight. The black boxes must also survive a penetration test during which a steel pin dropped from a height of 10 ft (3 m) impacts the CSMU at its most vulnerable point with a force of 500 pounds (2,225 N). In addition, a static crush test is conducted to demonstrate that all sides of the CSMU can withstand a pressure of 5,000 pounds per square inch (350 kg/cm²) for five minutes. The fire resistance of the CSMU is further tested by exposing it to a temperature of 2,000°F (1,100°C) for up to an hour. The device is also required to survive after lying in smoldering wreckage for ten hours at a temperature of 500°F (260°C).

Other requirements specify survivability limits when immersed in liquids. The CSMU must endure the water pressure found at an ocean depth of 20,000 ft (6,100 m), and a deep-sea submersion test is conducted for 24 hours. Another saltwater submersion test lasting 30 days demonstrates both the survivability of the CSMU and the function of an Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB), or "pinger," that emits an ultrasonic signal once a second when immersed in water. These signals can be transmitted as deep 14,000 ft (4,270 m) and are detectable by sonar to help locate the recorders. A final series of tests includes submerging the CSMU in various fluids like jet fuel and fire extinguishing chemicals to verify the device can withstand the corrosive effects of such liquids.

So I'd say physically it should have survived. Might be at regulation limits, but I would think these units are likely over-built.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
What are the prevailing major currents in that area, and how fast are the currents at different depths? A current of just 4-6 knots can move most items great distances.

   I think drift will (if they find the debris field) will turn out to be a big factor fo rthings like cabin fittings, composite mateirals -- although the tail didn't sink.

Quoting Halophila (Reply 15):
I seriously hope they find more wreckage but I have to say that luck is really against them. Where the airliner is believed to have gone down is amongst the highest sedimentary accretion rates in the ocean, thanks to the Amazon River plume, which is highly productive and discharges sediments at the rate of around 2 tonnes per second. Whatever is down there is likely buried under a thick coat of mud by now, especially smaller pieces.

Also a very good point. The Amazon spews out an amazing amount of silt (fortunately, if you're a phytoplankton). I don't know how deep the layer of silt would be, but I'm not sure we'd be talking about a "thick" layer, perhaps only cm or mm scale, due to a) currents and b) most silt would fall preferentially near the mouth, and c) it's a big ocean.



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlinemrskyguy From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1214 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 9780 times:

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 20):
Also a very good point. The Amazon spews out an amazing amount of silt (fortunately, if you're a phytoplankton). I don't know how deep the layer of silt would be, but I'm not sure we'd be talking about a "thick" layer, perhaps only cm or mm scale, due to a) currents and b) most silt would fall preferentially near the mouth, and c) it's a big ocean.

I'm sure it's a fairly significant amount.. perhaps not enough to fully obscure an object such as the CVR from visual identification if you were within 5 feet and looking right at it, but enough so to make it blend in more with the surrounding environment.

I hope it's found, but I think it's an exercise in futility at this point.



"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee." -- Gunter's 2nd Law of Air
User currently offlinePPVRA From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8941 posts, RR: 40
Reply 22, posted (3 years 7 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 9482 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
The Bismarck had a displacement of some 52,000 tons (full displacement load), and was probibly around 42,000 tons when she was sunk. So an A-330 weighing about 200 tons (intact) would be easily moved by the currents.

Add to that any air pockets, which could make it drift even further. .



"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
User currently offlineDanVS From Brazil, joined Jul 2009, 254 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (3 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 9023 times:

Quoting Halophila (Reply 15):
Where the airliner is believed to have gone down is amongst the highest sedimentary accretion rates in the ocean, thanks to the Amazon River plume, which is highly productive and discharges sediments at the rate of around 2 tonnes per second. Whatever is down there is likely buried under a thick coat of mud by now, especially smaller pieces.

Well, I don't know where you got this info from, but I don't think Amazon River sediments can reach the site of the crash. Not only it's too far away (around 2000km/1200mi) but also the sea currents on the mouth of the Amazon have a northwestward direction. (http://oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/atlantic/north-brazil.html).


User currently offlinealhena From Luxembourg, joined Jun 2009, 63 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (3 years 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 8813 times:

Quoting Halophila (Reply 15):
Where the airliner is believed to have gone down is amongst the highest sedimentary accretion rates in the ocean, thanks to the Amazon River plume

Neither the Amazon's sediments nor its freshwater reach the area where the plane went down. Since precipitation due to the ITCZ is far more than evaporation, there is a huge amount of low salinity water near the surface which makes sonar or other acoustic surveying difficult, as discussed in the threads following the disappearance of the plane. The topography of the area is extremely accidented due to the activity of the midatlantic ridge, which makes a turn from east-west to north-south in the area, analogous to the coasts of Africa and north-eastern Brazil. The nearby St, Peter and St. Paul archipelago is the only place on earth where the earth's mantle reaches the surface. In other words, it's a big crack in earth's crust allowing the mantle to seep throug (megamullion).


25 Aesma : I'm guessing/hoping it's not their idea considering the government just changed, so those two got the job two weeks ago !
26 breiz : It was clarified last week that both Air France and Airbus will contribute to the new search with 3.5 million euros each. Source: Reuters
27 Thrust : Would be nice to finally get some answers to that. IF you go on youtube, you can find a video a passenger shot while inside of F-GZCP on finals to CDG
28 ElbowRoom : I've got a feeling they will find it this time. The last search ruled out a lot of areas to the west of the last known position. There are some gaps
29 pylon101 : I completely agree. Just try search AF447 in any browser - and you will see how many conspiracy theories are there. We should keep trying. Keep tryin
30 Aesma : Thanks for the update. I really hope they find it, but I'm not holding my breath.
31 tdscanuck : I remember seeing something some months back that, in analyzing already captured data in new ways, they thought they might have found the FDR "pinger
32 Aesma : IIRC, with new software they analyzed the original recordings by the Émeraude nuclear sub and thought they found the ping, but that was before the la
33 Grid : I don't know. Aren't modern aircraft able to withstand, or have information systems that allow them to avoid, acts of God? Maybe the severity was unk
34 Post contains images ElbowRoom : That's an interesting philosophical question Whilst there is a question mark over whether they flew the 'pitch and power' procedure, the latest BEA I
35 Post contains images pylon101 : This stance made me stalled for a moment. I guess our friend Grid has been building The Bible Belt in Kazakhstan No offense - just a joke.
36 affirmative : I think this is a very interesting question to be asked. In the months before and after AF447 the reports of issues with what could have been pitot r
37 rwessel : Another issue is that undoubtedly every little quirk and oddity in the system was being reported, *because* of AF447. Same as after SR111, everything
38 tdscanuck : Some, but not all. Clear air turbulence isn't detectable and can, in theory, exceed the structural capability of the aircraft if you hit it at just t
39 N14AZ : That's what I remember as well, there was this story that they had heard kind of their own signals, which had been sent to train the crews, or someth
40 Grid : No offense taken. I should have used the term "force majeure" instead of "Act of God". OK, good to know. This is what I was wondering.
41 BuyantUkhaa : While it was confirmed that there were problems with the pitot tubes, I still wonder whether that actually brought the plane down. Why? Because the wr
42 Post contains images mffoda : There was a string of Airspeed inconsistency incidents leading up to AF 447. Just wondering.... has there been any similar airspeed measuring problems
43 jetblueguy22 : I understand how the pitot tube works, but is there a GPS back up on any aircraft? Blue
44 kiwiandrew : GPS can only give you groundspeed , not airspeed , so it would be of very limited use , if any use at all .
45 tdscanuck : That's one of the effects but, on a FBW airliner, it's not the only one. Since airspeed is an input to many control laws, it can significantly alter
46 Post contains images kiwiandrew : I haven't thought of changing my name before , but it might be appropriate since some people feel that I claim to know a lot more than I really do ,
47 Post contains links AF2323 : More details coming: - While french BEA will still have an eye on what's happening, American Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution would lead operation
48 GBan : Very interesting article, thanks for that link! I assume/hope a translation will come up soon.
49 AF2323 : I always look for a link in English before posting something, but for now, my own search campaign has proven unsuccessful...
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
New Airline To Start In Italy posted Thu Nov 29 2007 03:08:52 by Beagleboys
New Airline To Start In Croatia On Tuesday? posted Sun Mar 25 2001 15:27:12 by 9A-CRO
Airbus: New A30X-programme To Start In 2014 posted Tue Jul 8 2008 01:32:34 by ENU
New China-Hawaii Charters To Start In July posted Tue May 27 2008 22:08:36 by Ha763
New Airline To Start Service In ILM posted Sun Nov 20 2005 00:01:55 by ERAUgrad02
New Air Service Beginning In February posted Sat Jan 30 2010 19:39:42 by JBAirwaysFan
CO To Start IAH-YEG, 11/1/09 posted Mon Aug 17 2009 13:01:37 by CALPSAFltSkeds
Etihad Flights To Almaty To Start In December posted Wed Jul 23 2008 07:56:40 by Ronerone
New Airlines To YYZ In 08-09 posted Fri Jan 11 2008 19:22:40 by Liverpool03
MLB-BERLIN To Start In November posted Wed May 16 2007 22:03:15 by Beefstew25