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OAG Changes 12/3/2010:CO/UA/DL/F9/FL/NK/WS  
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7687 posts, RR: 15
Posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 10335 times:

This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now.

How to read:
Flights are daily except as noted "/wk" which means per week.
ABE-MDT 2>10/WK means a reduction from 2 daily flights to 10 flights per week which is about 1.5 flights
ABE-MDT 3>2 APR means a reduction in one roundtrip from 3 to 2 for April only
ABE-MDT 3.8>2.7 APR-JUN This is the raw format of the data which sometimes I'm too lazy to retype. It means that over a month they were averaging a little less than 4 trips per day and now it's a little less than 3 per day. So, basically they cancelled 8 flights per week or so. Airlines are doing A LOT of non-daily ops now, so these fractions are pervasive.
ABE-MDT 4>6 MAY- means an increase from 4 to 6 roundtrips starting in May and continuing
ABE-MDT 4>6 MAY-JUN, 5>6 JUL means the change is only for the stated period May to June and then a different change for July in the same route

There was a LOT to type, so if you see something really weird ask me, it could be a typo.



9K
BOS-RKD 4>5 JUN-

CO
A lot of route trading this week between UA/CO.
DEN-FLL 0>1 MAR-
DEN-LAS 0>1 MAR-
LAX-OGG 1>0 MAR-
ORD-FLL 0>2 MAR-
ORD-PBI 0>1 MAR-APR
SFO-LAS 0>1 MAR-

UA
DEN-LAS 7>6 FEB-
DEN-SLC 6>7 APR-
DEN-YEG 3>4 APR-
LAX-DFW 2>4 APR- (!!! VX?)
LAX-KOA 2>1 APR-
LAX-LIH 2>1 APR-
LAX-MEX 2>3 MAR; 1/WK>3 APR- (!!!)
ORD-MCI 7>8 FEB-
ORD-MEX 0>2 MAR-
SFO-LAS 7>6 FEB-
SF0-MEX 1>2 MAR-

DL
ATL-AVL 9>10 MAY-JUN
ATL-BNA 9>10 MAR-APR
ATL-CAE 11>12 MAY-
ATL-CLT 12>11 MAY-JUN
ATL-ECP 8>9 MAR-
ATL-EWN 3>2 MAY; 4>3 JUN-
ATL-FAY 8>9 MAY-JUN
ATL-GPT 5>6 MAR-APR
ATL-ILM 6>7 MAY; 8>7 JUN-
ATL-LEX 8>9 MAR-APR; 9>11 MAY; 8>9 JUN-
ATL-LFT 4>3 MAR-APR; 3>4 JUN-
ATL-MEM 10>11 MAR-
ATL-MKE 6>7 MAR-
ATL-MSP 11>12 MAR-
ATL-OAJ 5>4 MAY-JUN
ATL-ROA 5>6 MAR-
ATL-SDF 10>11 MAR-
ATL-TRI 8>7 MAR-JUN
CMH-BOS 3>4 APR-
CMH-RDU 1>2 MAR-
DCA-MSY 0>1 MAR-
DCA-STL 4>3 MAR-
DTW-BNA 7>6 MAY-JUN
DTW-BTV 3>4 MAY-
DTW-BWI 5>6 MAY-JUN
DTW-CHS 2>3 MAY-JUN
DTW-GRB 5>6 MAR-APR; 5>7 MAY-
DTW-MHT 5>6 MAY-
DTW-SDF 4>5 MAY-JUN
JFK-FLL 2>3 APR-
LAX-FLL 1>5/WK MAR-APR
LGA-RSW 2>3 APR-
MEM-AMA 3>2 MAY-JUN
MEM-MFE 3>2 MAY-JUN
MIA-JAX 0>4 MAR-
MIA-MCO 0>5 MAR-
MIA-TPA 0>5 MAR-
MSP-BIL 3>2 MAY
MSP-MOT 5>6 MAY-
MSP-MSO 1>2 MAY-JUN
MSP-OKC 2>3 MAY-JUN
MSP-PDX 5>4 MAY-JUN
MSP-RSW 3>2 MAY-JUN
MSP-SDF 3>4 MAY-JUN
MSP-YQR 3>2 MAY-JUN
RDU-TPA 2>1 MAR-
SLC-AUS 2>3 MAY-JUN
SLC-GJT 4>3 MAY-JUN
SLC-MOT 2>0 JUN-
SLC-PSP 3>2 MAY-JUN
SLC-SJC 4>5 MAY-JUN

F9
DEN-FLL 2>1 MAY-
DEN-MCO 2>10/WK MAY-JUN
DEN-TPA 10/WK>1 MAY-JUN; 1>3/WK JUL-

FL
ALL EFFECTIVE MAY-
FL was late opening their schedule for May. Merger related? This compares June to April, since there was no prior schedule to compare for Summer. IMHO, this is not a "real schedule" as there is too much flying for their fleet.
ATL-BKG 1>2
ATL-BOS 4>5
ATL-DEN 3>4
ATL-DFW 6>7
ATL-HPN 2>3
ATL-LAS 3>4
ATL-LAX 3>4
ATL-MDW 6>8
ATL-MKE 4>5
ATL-PBI 3>2
ATL-PHX 3>2
ATL-PWM 0>1
ATL-RSW 5>4
ATL-SEA 0>1
ATL-SFO 2>3
ATL-STL 3>4
BOS-BWI 7>9
BOS-CAK 1>2
BOS-MCO 2>1
BOS-MKE 2>3
BOS-PHF 1>2
BWI-DFW 0>1
BWI-LAX 1>2
BWI-PWM 2>3
BWI-RSW 2>1
BWI-SEA 0>1
BWI-SRQ 1>3/WK
DAY-TPA 1>1/WK
FNT-TPA 1>1/WK
GRR-RSW 1>3/WK
GRR-TPA 1>3/WK
HPN-PBI 2>1
IND-MCO 5>4
IND-RSW 4>3
MCO-SJU 2>3
MDW-RSW 3>1
MKE-PHX 2>1
MKE-RSW 2>1
MKE-SRQ 1>1/WK
MKE-TPA 2>1
RSW-PIT 2>1

NH
HNL-HND 1>0 MAR- (?)

NK
FLL-ORD 3>4 MAR-APR

WS
EWR-YYC 0>1 MAY-
SFO-YVR 0>1 MAY-
SFO-YYC 0>1 MAY-

50 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7687 posts, RR: 15
Reply 1, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10318 times:

A thought on the DL schedules lately. DL seems VERY reactive to market conditions. Hardly a week goes by that they don't make some sort of tweak. It's actually an interesting proxy for bookings performance...and in a broader sense the economy. When they roll through with a large number of cuts (as they have done the last few weeks for shoulder periods) it shows that they are not confident in the booking trend. This week was a fairly positive week in terms of more additions than subtractions. That tells me that they had a good booking week and are optimistic. Of course, that could change quickly...but it is an interesting way to keep the pulse of the industry.

User currently offlineDAL767400ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10214 times:

Well, Delta is certainly the most flexible when it comes to capacity adjustments. After all, as we all know it's not just the number of frequencies that tends to change quite often, but also the plane type being used. Makes it somewhat hard to predict what type of plane at what actual time you will be flying on one or more months away, but if it saves/makes them money, so be it.

User currently offlinerl757pvd From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4716 posts, RR: 11
Reply 3, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10141 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
IMHO, this is not a "real schedule" as there is too much flying for their fleet.

For April to June I would expect a bigger Florida pull-down which would feed the ATL and BWI additions, maybe that will show up next week.



Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlinedrerx7 From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5209 posts, RR: 8
Reply 4, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10107 times:

Any other route swapping at CO/UA showing up besides DEN-LAS/LAS-SFO?


Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7687 posts, RR: 15
Reply 5, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10083 times:

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 2):
Well, Delta is certainly the most flexible when it comes to capacity adjustments. After all, as we all know it's not just the number of frequencies that tends to change quite often, but also the plane type being used. Makes it somewhat hard to predict what type of plane at what actual time you will be flying on one or more months away, but if it saves/makes them money, so be it.

All true, but it's a little surprising how willing they are to have airplanes sitting around in shoulder months.

Quoting rl757pvd (Reply 3):
For April to June I would expect a bigger Florida pull-down which would feed the ATL and BWI additions, maybe that will show up next week.

I'm not so sure. They published their May schedule much later than they usually do. I think they have been loathe to do much of anything with the merger hanging over their heads. I think they just needed to file something for May and this was a boring, mostly photocopy of last Summer.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DEN-FLL 0>1 MAR-
DEN-LAS 0>1 MAR-
LAX-OGG 1>0 MAR-
ORD-FLL 0>2 MAR-
ORD-PBI 0>1 MAR-APR
SFO-LAS 0>1 MAR-
Quoting drerx7 (Reply 4):
Any other route swapping at CO/UA showing up besides DEN-LAS/LAS-SFO?

Well, all the CO changes are UA related.
DEN-FLL is clearly a traditional UA route.
UA cut a bunch of Hawaii flights seasonally, but they didn't cut OGG instead letting CO cut theirs.
The ORD-Floridas are clearly "United markets".


User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5594 posts, RR: 12
Reply 6, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10026 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

FL
ALL EFFECTIVE MAY

I note that SAN has not shown up in next year's peak-season schedules yet. (In the past FL has tended to re-surface at Lindbergh around Memorial Day for a short 3-4 month seasonal appearance.) Perhaps with the pending merger, they are not going to even bother pulling their stuff out of storage here in 2011. IMHO, certainly no big loss for San Diego...

bb


User currently offlineAtlwest1 From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1046 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 9996 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
FL was late opening their schedule for May. Merger related? This compares June to April, since there was no prior schedule to compare for Summer. IMHO, this is not a "real schedule" as there is too much flying for their fleet.

FL will have 4-5 new planes by that time plus the slack in the fleet will be reduced so more flights can be done.



ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co. or Airt
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16907 posts, RR: 51
Reply 8, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 9979 times:

CO:

DEN-LAS 1 737-800
SFO-LAS 1 737-800
DEN-FLL 1 737-900
ORD-FLL 2 737-800
ORD-PBI 1 737-900



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6788 posts, RR: 17
Reply 9, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 9974 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
ATL-EWN 3>2 MAY; 4>3 JUN-

I know EWN was hoping DL would keep them at 4x daily year round, but they seem to fluctuate, but service is still service. With only one destination, I certainly hope that DL will eventually be willing to try another route.. I still think at least once daily to NYC would work.. and as a special favor for me, can I get once to DCA or BWI or IAD.. something non-stop???

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CMH-RDU 1>2 MAR-

Nice! bringing it back closer to where Eagle had it

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
RDU-TPA 2>1 MAR-


Not surprising since WN has 737s on the route.. but something I do question is how are the RDU-MIA/RSW flights doing? I didn't see them operating this past saturday...



Aiming High and going far..
User currently offlineas739x From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 6194 posts, RR: 24
Reply 10, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 9800 times:

Quoting drerx7 (Reply 4):

I'm guessing there will be plenty more to come. And I think you will see many from SFO. UA has really missed the 737 and with A32X tied up for transcon, they have had to use the CR7 a lot more for routes like SFO-LAS/SEA/YVR. But now with some of the CR7's being deployed to IAH, I can only speculate that some 737's will start showing up for West Coast flying.



"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
User currently offlineBuddys747 From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 534 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 9722 times:

I guess MDT-ATL, ABE-ATL are not coming back, at least yet, on FL.

User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26136 posts, RR: 50
Reply 12, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 9697 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
LAX-MEX 2>3 MAR; 1/WK>3 APR- (!!!)
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
SF0-MEX 1>2 MAR-
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
ORD-MEX 0>2 MAR-

Seems you are missing or not seeing interim schedules for some reason. For example both ORD and SFO-MEX are 2x daily today already, while LAX-MEX goes 2 to 3x daily in January

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
LAX-DFW 2>4 APR- (!!! VX?)

I think this has a decent shot of working for United, or atleast keeping things interesting. Continental has a developed FF following in Texas including in Dallas. Hell I know some folks at a large employer in Dallas that almost exclusively fly DFW-IAH-xxx that would be very happy to hear about this increase.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinediverdave From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 350 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 9608 times:

Many thanks for the efforts you put into this weekly update. It is much appreciated!  

David


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6730 posts, RR: 24
Reply 14, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 9601 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 12):
I think this has a decent shot of working for United, or atleast keeping things interesting.

It's interesting to see the "new" UA be more aggressive. In the last few years, UA hasn't done much when carriers have attacked them on new routes particularly out of LAX. This response is more aggressive.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
IMHO, this is not a "real schedule" as there is too much flying for their fleet.

It's pretty standard for FL. They pull down Florida flying and increase utilization which drops a bit in the winter months. Plus, as mentioned, they have new planes arriving in 2011.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
DCA-MSY 0>1 MAR-
DCA-STL 4>3 MAR-

Let the juggling act continue as DL tries to keep all these money losing routes out of DCA alive until they can finally get the slot-swap pushed through. MSY isn't a bad choice per se, but DL will still struggle to make any money on this route.

Quoting Buddys747 (Reply 11):
I guess MDT-ATL, ABE-ATL are not coming back, at least yet, on FL.

I think it's a bit early for FL to have decided on some of these routes.


User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7687 posts, RR: 15
Reply 15, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 9551 times:

Quoting SANFan (Reply 6):
I note that SAN has not shown up in next year's peak-season schedules yet. (In the past FL has tended to re-surface at Lindbergh around Memorial Day for a short 3-4 month seasonal appearance.) Perhaps with the pending merger, they are not going to even bother pulling their stuff out of storage here in 2011. IMHO, certainly no big loss for San Diego...

They don't want to devote the manpower to "opening a station" that is really going to be a WN existing station. They can act like they aren't planning as if they are already owned by WN, but it's pretty obvious. I think they see this May schedule as post-merger so it's kind of irrelevant as WN will get to change it before it flies.


User currently offlineAtlwest1 From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1046 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 9466 times:

Quoting diverdave (Reply 13):
Many thanks for the efforts you put into this weekly update. It is much appreciated!  

David

I definitely second that!!  



ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co. or Airt
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7687 posts, RR: 15
Reply 17, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 9429 times:



Quoting Atlwest1 (Reply 7):
FL will have 4-5 new planes by that time plus the slack in the fleet will be reduced so more flights can be done.

Again, I really think this is just a placeholder schedule to get them to the the merger. I expect huge changes when WN takes the keys. The fact FL is reigning in their seasonal routes should be a clue that things are going to change in a big way. Not surprising to me, but it should shake some of the naysayers in non-traditional WN markets where FL has only 3 flights or less.

Quoting Buddys747 (Reply 11):
I guess MDT-ATL, ABE-ATL are not coming back, at least yet, on FL.

I think if the merger runs into trouble they will roll out all that stuff while they wait, but absent that kind of delay I suspect little in terms of announcements for stations that would be on WN's questionable list.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 9):
Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CMH-RDU 1>2 MAR-
Nice! bringing it back closer to where Eagle had it

It was interesting to see DL add a couple of CMH flights as they whittle down CVG.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 9):
Not surprising since WN has 737s on the route.. but something I do question is how are the RDU-MIA/RSW flights doing? I didn't see them operating this past saturday...

20-20 hindsight, though. They knew they couldn't compete with WN when they went into that low yield junk. Not sure why DL repeatedly thinks putting RJs against WN to Florida is a good idea.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 12):
Seems you are missing or not seeing interim schedules for some reason. For example both ORD and SFO-MEX are 2x daily today already, while LAX-MEX goes 2 to 3x daily in January

I'm not "missing them", they were loaded prior to this week.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now.

The reason I marked the (!!!) is because they had only loaded those flights for Winter previously and just had weekend service going into Spring. Then they jumped it up to maintain the 3x daily schedule. That's a big move. You don't see multiple frequency increases at the legacies that often.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 12):
I think this has a decent shot of working for United, or atleast keeping things interesting.

I think that 2x in DFW-LAX is not enough to garner business traffic, but is that the goal? I thought they were just feeding Asia. I think it's really about VX.

Here is the bigger problem. There are now 24 flights per day from DFW to LAX. The market size is about 900 per day each way. That's just under 40 local passengers per flights and the average aircraft size is about 140 seats. So there are only enough locals to fill
Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 14):
Let the juggling act continue as DL tries to keep all these money losing routes out of DCA alive

EXACTLY !  
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7687 posts, RR: 15
Reply 18, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 9427 times:

Quoting diverdave (Reply 13):

Many thanks for the efforts you put into this weekly update.

     


User currently offlineIndy From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 4588 posts, RR: 18
Reply 19, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 9182 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
IND-MCO 5>4
IND-RSW 4>3

Looks like additional cuts to capacity at IND. Recently it was the ending of BWI (for Jan I think). Between the loss of BWI and these two frequency cuts I believe that represents a 20% decrease in FL service in IND.



Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
User currently onlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7767 posts, RR: 27
Reply 20, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 9183 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
A thought on the DL schedules lately. DL seems VERY reactive to market conditions. Hardly a week goes by that they don't make some sort of tweak. It's actually an interesting proxy for bookings performance...and in a broader sense the economy.

This really has become much more noticable post-merger, due to a number of reasons.
1) Increased disipline at keeping capacity in check
2) Reallocating capacity based on seasonal traffic flows across the different hub locations
3) Significantly more options from hubs and aircraft types to balance capacity and frequencies across the network

Essentially, DL being much more conservative on capacity than they had been in years past. This is something that the financial community has mentioned to DL on several occasions, on their concerns to prevent overcapacity. A necessary if DL is going to get 10-12% margins as they have told Wall Street.

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
When they roll through with a large number of cuts (as they have done the last few weeks for shoulder periods) it shows that they are not confident in the booking trend. This week was a fairly positive week in terms of more additions than subtractions.

Note when these additions / subtractions have occurred. The majority of cuts in weeks past were for March/April. Now they have moved on to being planning for the next schedule and incrementally adding in capacity in the May/June timeframe. This is more or less the typical first-pass in the planning process.

There are a lot of factors that DL is taking into consideration. They have to reconcile between a top-down forecast based on targeted financials with a bottoms-up forecast based on demand in each market. Other factors include economic trends, market-specific trends, competitor move, and strategic initiatives.

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
That tells me that they had a good booking week and are optimistic. Of course, that could change quickly...but it is an interesting way to keep the pulse of the industry

Actual booking generally do not factor into long range planning. It is difficult to make capacity decisions today based on actual bookings 6 months in advance, considering these flights today have such little advanced booking. The average advanced booking lead time in most domestic markets is about 3-4 weeks, even less in strong business markets. International, leisure, and holiday periods tend to have more advanced bookings. Travels are booking much closer in than they ever used to do.

Quoting enilria (Reply 5):
All true, but it's a little surprising how willing they are to have airplanes sitting around in shoulder months.

DL, and the rest of the industry is much more disiplined than they used to be at controlling capacity, and maintaining better yields. Wtihout having all the numbers, that just assumes that it is more financially viable to have some aircraft/capacity idle than it is to fly the incremental capacity, depress yields, and incur additional operating costs.


User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 7
Reply 21, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 9103 times:

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):
CO
A lot of route trading this week between UA/CO.
DEN-FLL 0>1 MAR-
DEN-LAS 0>1 MAR-
LAX-OGG 1>0 MAR-
ORD-FLL 0>2 MAR-
ORD-PBI 0>1 MAR-APR
SFO-LAS 0>1 MAR-



We saw this for months with DL. In one weekly update it will show city pairs with NW flight numbers and two weeks later it would switch back to DL. Same thing with the madness between the 88s and 319s/20s. But it was fun to watch!

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 2):
Well, Delta is certainly the most flexible when it comes to capacity adjustments. After all, as we all know it's not just the number of frequencies that tends to change quite often, but also the plane type being used. Makes it somewhat hard to predict what type of plane at what actual time you will be flying on one or more months away, but if it saves/makes them money, so be it.



Sure seems so. One week you will have a 738 operating a particular flight. The next week on the same week day, an MD88 may be on it. The capacity controls seems to work for them. As i've been told by insiders, the computer system deciding equipment type and frequencies is one of the most complicated in the industry because of DL's requirements.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 20):

Well said PSU. Always a treat to read your well thought out posts as well as Jet's.



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26136 posts, RR: 50
Reply 22, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 8971 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
I think that 2x in DFW-LAX is not enough to garner business traffic, but is that the goal? I thought they were just feeding Asia. I think it's really about VX.

LAX-DFW has never been about feeding Asia. The only Asia flight is NRT(which the current DFW-LAX does not even connect to) unless you want to add Star partners.

United has held on to LAX-DFW for quite sometime and seems to hold its own with enough of its FF base or others that want to avoid AA. Now post merger, UA inherits an added base of Continental flyer that live in the Metroplex (which I have led to believe are good sized) so I think the new joint airline could do OK for itself with 4x between the cities.

If this was merely about Virgin America, UA could have announced and started something months ago. The VX DFW announcement was way back in early August.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7687 posts, RR: 15
Reply 23, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 8937 times:

Quoting Indy (Reply 19):
Looks like additional cuts to capacity at IND. Recently it was the ending of BWI (for Jan I think). Between the loss of BWI and these two frequency cuts I believe that represents a 20% decrease in FL service in IND.

The Florida stuff is just end of season reductions. I'd draw few conclusions from it.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 20):
This really has become much more noticable post-merger,

You are exactly right.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 20):
A necessary if DL is going to get 10-12% margins as they have told Wall Street.

...and that is why. Nevertheless, it is impressive.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 20):
Note when these additions / subtractions have occurred. The majority of cuts in weeks past were for March/April.

Actually, if you look above there are a lot of increases in March.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 20):
Actual booking generally do not factor into long range planning.

First, we are talking about March, that is short-term planning. Long rang planning is a year at a minimum...and more likely 5+ years. BTW, bookings are absolutely affecting the schedules 90 days out. We've seen all the airlines doing day of week cancel downs for the last few years. Those are totally bookings driven. If it was based upon last year's performance they should have made that adjustment months earlier rather than waiting until 90 days out when they are 10% booked. These are almost definitely driven by demand trends, although there are fleet driven decisions intermingled as well.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 20):
It is difficult to make capacity decisions today based on actual bookings 6 months in advance, considering these flights today have such little advanced booking.

It isn't that difficult. That's exactly how it is done. If bookings on ATL-EVV (a random example) are down 20% YOY for December and Janaury, they can't cancel a flight that close in due to the crew bid and other factors, but you can bet they will go to the first "unlocked" schedule and cut capacity. They also do the reverse as warranted. That's exactly how it works.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 21):
We saw this for months with DL.

Exactly. I don't get that excited about it, but one thing I will remind people about these fleet shifts between merging carriers...there are really two factors: aircaft driven and crew driven.

Here's a great example of the kind of mess that happens and how it results in myriad shift. Let's say that a mission critical aircraft is needed in the CO network. Maybe it's an overwater plane and CO has them all deployed. UA has a few not in mission critical use. So they shift the route (maybe it's SFO-IAH-LIM) to UA metal. Now you have moved 500 hours of flying on to the UA pilot group and off of the CO pilot group. That can create lots of problems both political and financial, so they will try to balance that flying somewhere else. Much like DL/NW, it appears CO will be attempting to use Florida as one of the balance points.


User currently onlinePSU.DTW.SCE From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 7767 posts, RR: 27
Reply 24, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 8825 times:

Quoting enilria (Reply 23):
First, we are talking about March, that is short-term planning. Long rang planning is a year at a minimum...and more likely 5+ years. BTW, bookings are absolutely affecting the schedules 90 days out. We've seen all the airlines doing day of week cancel downs for the last few years. Those are totally bookings driven. If it was based upon last year's performance they should have made that adjustment months earlier rather than waiting until 90 days out when they are 10% booked. These are almost definitely driven by demand trends, although there are fleet driven decisions intermingled as well.

Yep, good points.

March-April is always an interesting time for planning purposes simply because there is such a spike in spring break/leisure and often discressionary travel. A lot of the timing of these trips is tied to where school and university breaks fall and the timing of Easter. The Easter holiday can shift up to 3-4 weeks between late March and late April depending on the year which can significantly impact air travel demand. The other major holidays and vacation periods do not shift as much throughout the year.

You example is true. I meant that it is impossible to make decisions now in say November for the May schedule based on actual bookings for May at this time. Yes, they can use current trends on current performance and adjust future, unlocked schedules.


25 BACCALA : UA does not fly into PBI or FLL.
26 Post contains images ERJ170 : Still better than RDU which has only 4 flight (yes, 4 flights) to ATL only (yup.. only ATL.. sheesh).. that should give you something to at least be
27 Post contains images pvd757 : Why not juggle a couple of DCA flights PVD's way?
28 MAH4546 : Seriously? What's "low-yield junk" about MIA-RDU (one-way average $153.24) and RSW-RDU ($164.69), for flights of only about a two-hour stage length.
29 TOMMY767 : If that's the case, UA should upgrade LAX-DFW to at least a daily 319 or 320 along with the CR7s.
30 ERJ170 : Then, if they are proven to work, they should be moved to daily. But they flights did run on 20Nov10.. not sure why they would then halt them until 0
31 FlyPNS1 : Those fares aren't that great in terms of yield, especially when you are filling an RJ with them. And to note, DL appears to only be flying MIA-RDU o
32 Post contains images smoot4208 : Some people just think that MIA is the royal goddess for everything
33 MAH4546 : Then the entire industry is in major trouble, because at 22 cents a mile, that's a lot better than a lot of "high yielding" routes like, say, BOS-LAX
34 smoot4208 : For the most part transcons aren't that high-yielding because they cover a lot of miles. I wonder what the ORD-BOS yield was pre-WN into the market?
35 SlcDeltaRUmd11 : Whats the deal with SLC-MOT. Is there a subsidy why they want to keep it until June. If its under performing i would think they could cut it right aft
36 FlyASAGuy2005 : Hit the nail right on the head there. This too was told me by someone working the network at DL. Things will settle down once the seniority lists are
37 MAH4546 : Who? Certainly not me. I was rightfully point out that there was nothing junk-yielding about a route that brings 22 cents a mile. There is a blatant
38 GlobalCabotage : South Florida to Chicago is no a UA market, but an AA market! AA owns ORD-MIA and seasonal service / minimal year round service to PBI and FLL (add RS
39 kgaiflyer : From the IAD side, USAir owns DCA-PBI (quite an upscale crowd if I say so myself) and WN owns BWI-FLL (mostly mommies, daddies, and kids). There is r
40 PAcificClipper : Not currently, but they used to. Yep. AA is the 800 lb gorilla from ORD to South Florida. But UA's narrowbody shortage is now over. AA will still be
41 enilria : True, that makes revenue management an adventure every year and forces the revman software to make decisions (probably poor ones until enough booking
42 MSYtristar : The MSY-DCA on DL is interesting. This is actually a restart of a former route as this was flown in '06 for a while with an OH CRJ before getting the
43 FlyASAGuy2005 : Does anyone know what the PDEW looks like MSY-DCA?
44 FWAERJ : Yikes. A 20% service cut from IND's #2 carrier when pax numbers and the economy are starting to rebound in Indy. I really wonder if IND will be able
45 Post contains links enilria : Saw this, look under "About Me". This airline route enthusiast is not shy and yes his three blogs are definitely "well defined". http://airlineroute.b
46 Indy : What is the point of the link? I am not seeing much on that page with the exception of the "About Me". Was there supposed to be content on that page?
47 azncsa4qf744er : I believe this is a typo. UAX will operate a 3rd daily flight but not a 4th. Unless it's not posted yet. UAX6654 LAXDFW 0810-1309 UAX6749 LAXDFW 1240
48 Post contains images OH-LGA : GDS schedule loads usually occur early on Saturday mornings. enilria's information comes from the OAG updates which usually are slightly in advance o
49 enilria : It's also possible UA has revised their filing in between GDS updates because one of the four flights was a dupe or something. It was definitely 4 as
50 Post contains images AZNCSA4QF744ER : You guys are indeed correct. I checked again today and the 4th flight start on 24APR.
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