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International Lease Finance To "scrap" A380 Order?  
User currently offlinebueb0g From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2010, 660 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 12912 times:

Something interesting I read in the latest Flight International today, not sure how reliable it is - anyone got any more info?

The small piece reads: "Recent issues with the Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engine will likely prompt International Lease Finance (ILFC) to scrap its orders for the A380, says Wells Fargo senior aviation analyst Gary Liebowitz in a research report. "ILFC likely will... excersise its option to cancel its order for 10 A380s over the next few weeks. We would not be surprised if the A380 deposits are reallocated to the re-engined A320 as ILFC has a few narrowbodies in [its] backlog and its chief executive is a former Airbus executive."

So it's not coming from inside ILFC, but rather an analyst. Thoughts/more info?

[Edited 2010-11-30 08:37:15]

[Edited 2010-11-30 08:37:44]


Roger roger, what's our vector, victor?
19 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 12878 times:

Quoting bueb0g (Thread starter):
"Recent issues with the Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engine will likely prompt International Lease Finance (ILFC) to scrap its orders for the A380, says Wells Fargo senior aviation analyst Gary Liebowitz in a research report.
Quoting bueb0g (Thread starter):
Thoughts/more info?

Yeah, they ordered EA engines.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-alliance-wins-ilfca380-order.html

Would be strange to use the RR engine incident to cancel the order.


User currently offlinebueb0g From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2010, 660 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 12792 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 1):
Yeah, they ordered EA engines.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles....html

That doesn't seem to be recent - at the moment they are registered with 2 A380s EA, the other 8 are "undecided". But I agree with you, it seems an odd excuse to cancel.

[Edited 2010-11-30 08:45:07]


Roger roger, what's our vector, victor?
User currently offlineAirlineCritic From Finland, joined Mar 2009, 729 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 12333 times:

They might cancel of course, if they cannot find customers for these planes. But the arguments from the analyst defy logic. Cancel an EA-engined A380 order because RR engines has some problems? Order A320 instead of A380 because their manager is a previous Airbus exec?

Nothing newsworthy here, folks. Lets wait until there is something to report, like IFLC actually saying something about it.


User currently offlineUA933 From Germany, joined Feb 2006, 220 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 12013 times:

Any guesses regarding the potential customer?


united - It's time to fly!
User currently offlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12780 posts, RR: 46
Reply 5, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 11761 times:
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After all this time it's difficult to believe that ILFC actually need a reason or excuse to cancel. One can't help but feel that if they've held on to these all through the GFC that it would be somewhat counter-logical that they'd decide to cancel now we're seeing signs of recovery.


Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineBongodog1964 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2006, 3650 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 11702 times:

Quoting Thorben (Reply 1):
Quoting bueb0g (Thread starter):
"Recent issues with the Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engine will likely prompt International Lease Finance (ILFC) to scrap its orders for the A380, says Wells Fargo senior aviation analyst Gary Liebowitz in a research report.
Quoting bueb0g (Thread starter):
Thoughts/more info?

Yeah, they ordered EA engines.

Another so called expert analyst who appears to talk through the wrong end of his torso.

The worrying thing though is that people make major investment decisions based on this sort of garbage.


User currently offlineCFBFrame From United States of America, joined May 2009, 531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 9261 times:

I never understood why they didn't lease them to EK and call it a day. As for ILFC living through the GFC with the orders and canceling now, the only assumption (if true) is that their are no customers interested in the frames. Might explain the recent revisions seen coming from Airbus about the long term forecast. I would have thought China would have scooped these 10 up.

User currently onlineXT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3424 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 9176 times:

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 7):
I never understood why they didn't lease them to EK and call it a day

This is what EK agreed to do with 2 frames, till Airbus decided to kick ILFC in the kidneys and just sell A380 for less straight to EK.

The ILFC order has been "dead" for some time now as there was no one to lease to. I fail to see how its suprising that a leasing company would cancel an order when thier potential customers have been going straight to Airbus for the same or better deals.

While this excuse is very weak, what do you think they are going to say? "We got screwed by Airbus in this deal so we are canceling and moving on". Very poor idea if you plan to continue a working relationship with Airbus as I sure they are. In the end they won't lose anything from this whole mess, so its really not worth saying anything that might cost them later.


User currently offlineCFBFrame From United States of America, joined May 2009, 531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 9051 times:

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 8):
Very poor idea if you plan to continue a working relationship with Airbus as I sure they are. In the end they won't lose anything from this whole mess, so its really not worth saying anything that might cost them later.

SO be the launch customer for NEO instead?


User currently offlineNavigator From Sweden, joined Jul 2001, 1223 posts, RR: 14
Reply 10, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 7675 times:

Quoting bueb0g (Thread starter):
So it's not coming from inside ILFC, but rather an analyst. Thoughts/more info?

We have a chain of guesses here!! He is guessing and you ask us even further from ILFC to guess also... I think maybe they will cancel the A380 but I do not think it has anything to do with the engine issues. The engine issue might be a catalyst for for this pretty logical move. I always wondered why ILFC took the chance and ordered the A380 in the first place. It is just a handful of airlines that can be interested in leasing the A380. The A320 is a wiser choice giving more flexibility.



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User currently offlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3807 posts, RR: 11
Reply 11, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 7245 times:

Quoting Navigator (Reply 10):
It is just a handful of airlines that can be interested in leasing the A380.

Of which most are big enough to finance their own.

I could see a major carrier in the market for a big aircraft but that either do not want to commit to one or the other superjumbo, or one that just decided on getting A380s but can't wait for the lenghty delivery date. Though in the latter case, Airbus would probably just cut the grass under ILFC's feet again and offer earlier slots...



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlinesteve6666 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2003, 425 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 5335 times:

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 6):
Another so called expert analyst who appears to talk through the wrong end of his torso.

The worrying thing though is that people make major investment decisions based on this sort of garbage.

  

Absolutely right. Got to work out whose pocket he is in and what vested interests he represents. The more you look at analyst reports, not just in aviation but all through business, you find out just how wrong (and often biased) they are.



eu nasci ha dez mil anos atras, e nao tem nada nesse mundo que eu nao saiba demais
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6812 posts, RR: 12
Reply 13, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 4436 times:

About airlines leasing A380s, a charter company maybe, with an all eco/eco+ config' ? But of course for that you'd expect second hand airplanes.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlinemrskyguy From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1214 posts, RR: 3
Reply 14, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 3877 times:

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 6):
The worrying thing though is that people make major investment decisions based on this sort of garbage.

And that may be precisely what the analyst is trying to do.. steer the ship from the dock.



"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee." -- Gunter's 2nd Law of Air
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31237 posts, RR: 85
Reply 15, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 3808 times:
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As noted, ILFC have never been able to place their planes with customers and Airbus has been happy to sell new frames to new customers with delivery dates earlier than ILFC's, checking ILFC's ability to secure customers.

As to why ILFC has not yet cancelled, it's possible Airbus won't let them without forfeiture of deposits. So ILFC, like VS and IT, will just "infinitely defer" until Airbus finally lets them out of their deal.


User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3398 posts, RR: 9
Reply 16, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 3784 times:

This order will likely be one say cancelled (but who can say when) as it's been deferred multiple times so any early slot advantage have gone. I'm putting this and the VS A380 in the same boat - it will never see the light of day and will one day be swapped for something else.

The price argument is interesting, as I was suprsed that Air Austral went and order just 2 planes when there were these lease birds lying around.


User currently offlinefrmrCapCadet From United States of America, joined May 2008, 1732 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 3625 times:

At this point I do not see how either cancellations of the 380 and 787 can hurt either A or B. They are not able to get planes out the door meeting original promised dates. Cancellation simply makes it possible to meet other customers' dellivery dates a little better. EK allegedly wants more 380s and will sop up any availability. The 787 is promised out as far as I can see .


Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
User currently offlineaviasian From Singapore, joined Jan 2001, 1489 posts, RR: 14
Reply 18, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 3485 times:

BTW, is the Vietnam Airlines plan for A380s still just a Letter of Intent (and for how many) or has this progressed to becoming a "Firm Order"?

KC Sim


User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 3464 times:

I wonder what ILFC is going to do with its A380s anyway. Only time I ever heard of them giving some to a customer was with EK, but they have 90 on order themselves and certainly don't need ILFC to provide them a few more.

In the production line overviews that have the numbers up to 149 (with blanks), there is not a single ILFC bird in sight. Also, the next available slots for new orders would be already in 2015, meaning that some customers do not want their birds as early as they could get them.

My guess is that ILFC has postponed the order for a long time, maybe even indefinitely. They could cancel in case they got some money back for doing so. They are or were a part of AIG, which is know for financial trouble they had.


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