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Big A320NEO Orders Wait In 2011  
User currently offlineFCKC From France, joined Nov 2004, 2348 posts, RR: 4
Posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 15659 times:

http://www.europe1.fr/Economie/A320-...ttend-de-grosses-commandes-321730/


Despite another thread has been opened about A320NEO launch , i open another one to speak ONLY of the potential customers.


JL has revealed some names of airlines and lessors which could place big orders for the A320NEO in 2011.

They are

Lufthansa
Air Asia
Indigo
ILFC
GECAS

Perhaps Qatar will join this club as well.......
United ?

89 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineNAS738 From Norway, joined Aug 2010, 28 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 15500 times:

I really hope to see the "new" 320 in SK colours... Even though I highly doubt that it will happen.

User currently offlineSchorschNG From Germany, joined Sep 2010, 500 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 15333 times:

Imagine you run an airline.
Somebody is launching an upgrade of your standard single aisle aircraft.
You have to replace your current fleet anyway.
If you order now, you get some discount. Risk for delay is low, and even if, you just use the old aircraft a few month longer (and get a juicy delay discount).
And you save 10-15% fuel with the aircraft.

I would say: you can't mess it up.
Especially A321 replacements seem a good deal.

Question is also if some airlines look for cheap late delivery slots of the A320 "Classic".

By the way: NEO is a cool name. Airbus has a winner concept on its hand.



From a structural standpoint, passengers are the worst possible payload. [Michael Chun-Yung Niu]
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6607 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 15243 times:

I hope AF and BA. They have A320s of all ages.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineQFA787380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 14968 times:

Won't a lot of airlines with reasonably young 737/320 fleets wait and see what Boeing will do here? As I see it the ball is in Boeing's court here. Scott Hamilton has said the 320Neo v 738 advantage is marginal but is significant for 319Neo v 73G. The big market is 320 v 738, so will Boeing be content to add further incremental improvements to the 737 or will they go all out with an all new NB design with EIS late this decade/early next? I just don't see them taking the Neo path. Their customers don't want it.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30901 posts, RR: 87
Reply 5, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 14840 times:
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Airlines that will be interested in the A320neo are those that operate A320s that need to be replaced between 2015 and 2020.

If they need frames before 2015, then they have to take A320s.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5435 posts, RR: 30
Reply 6, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 14784 times:

Quoting QFA787380 (Reply 4):
I just don't see them taking the Neo path. Their customers don't want it.

AF said they didn't want a 320NEO. I think customers want the moon but will take the best they can get. I don't see any way that a new Boeing narrow body will make sense. The best they could do is a composite 320, maybe with a better wing.

Airbus and Boeing have both said that composites don't scale down as well as up so there would be little advantage to CFRP their narrow body. I doubt the mx gains would be worth the 10 billion pricetag.

If it will cost Airbus 1.3 billion dollars to NEO the 320, let's say Boeing has to spend 2 billion. They end up matching performance...again, for the least investment.

The technologies just aren't available to give an all new plane enough of an advantage to make the 10 billion investment worthwhile.



What the...?
User currently offlineAloha717200 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 4480 posts, RR: 15
Reply 7, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 14656 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 6):
AF said they didn't want a 320NEO.

Possibly posturing. Several airlines wanted to pressure the aircraft manufacturers to go with clean-sheet designs for 737 and A320 replacements, rather than simply an upgrade or next-gen model.

But an upgrade is what they're going to get. Based on this, I think several formerly "we don't want a NEO/NG 737/A320" airlines will change their mind.

Besides. Once the NEO goes into service, why would you want a classic A320? Aside from a lower upfront cost, the NEO is overall the better plane.


User currently offlinedrerx7 From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5173 posts, RR: 8
Reply 8, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 14549 times:

United...with a closer relationship to Boeing and a large 737 backlog...this is gonna be a tough sell; however, still possible. I think UA will leverage the 320NEO against Boeing for a replacement or sweatheart deal on aircraft.


Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
User currently offline6thfreedom From Bermuda, joined Sep 2004, 3325 posts, RR: 20
Reply 9, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 14510 times:

Jetstar
Air Asia
Tiger


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5435 posts, RR: 30
Reply 10, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 14482 times:

Quoting Aloha717200 (Reply 7):

But an upgrade is what they're going to get. Based on this, I think several formerly "we don't want a NEO/NG 737/A320" airlines will change their mind.

I suspect the same will happen when the other guys NEO. I wonder what they plan on calling it?

I think current 320 customers are the most likely NEO customers. Boeing will do whatever it takes to keep their base.



What the...?
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6146 posts, RR: 35
Reply 11, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 14414 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
Airlines that will be interested in the A320neo are those that operate A320s that need to be replaced between 2015 and 2020.

If they need frames before 2015, then they have to take A320s.
Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 10):
I think current 320 customers are the most likely NEO customers. Boeing will do whatever it takes to keep their base.

I wish more people would look at the "NEO" announcement in the same way... instead of just looking at the "specs" and deciding that because it will have lower fuel burn that airlines are going to rush off and buy it. The purchasing decision is based on a lot more factors than just "fuel burn".



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30901 posts, RR: 87
Reply 12, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 14275 times:
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Quoting planemaker (Reply 11):
The purchasing decision is based on a lot more factors than just "fuel burn".

To an Airbus Aficiando, you're speaking heresey there.  


User currently offlineKFlyer From Sri Lanka, joined Mar 2007, 1226 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 14230 times:

IMHO, most airlines will take a wait and see approach. The 797 is likely to be the first new clean sheet narrowbody ( from either A or B ). The too late EIS of 320neo gives a marginal advantage to ordering if any 797s. It seems noone wants to throw money this early. And the 320neo is unlikely to convert any large 737 customers anyway.


The opinions above are solely my own and do not express those of my employers or clients.
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5435 posts, RR: 30
Reply 14, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 14138 times:

Quoting KFlyer (Reply 13):
The 797 is likely to be the first new clean sheet narrowbody

The only way I can see Boeing doing an all new plane is if they go larger, concentrating on the 737-800 to 757 market, basically ceding the sub 150 market to others.

They are not going to spend 10 billion dollars, or more, just to end up with a plane marginally better than a 320NEO or C919. That would be a huge waste of cash.

I see Boeing having 3 choices with the 737;

Continue to tweak the NG, and fight the NEO on price,

Invest a couple of billion and NEO the NG, matching the NEO as closely as they can,

Build all new, and current tech just won't give them the gains to make a direct replacement worth it. Too much cash for not nearly enough upside. This one would also take the longest to get into service. Also, what happens if they guess wrong about the next leap in engine tech and their new plane can't be adapted...10 billion down the crapper.



What the...?
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30901 posts, RR: 87
Reply 15, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 14097 times:
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Yeah, I think Boeing would might well prefer to counter with their own 737neo instead of commit to an all new design. Boeing is going to be wrestling with the 787 into the middle part of this decade as they get the -8 and -9 into service and then start tweaking them. If they do commit to a -10, that will soak even more resources. They also will likely have to tweak the 777-300ER into the "777-300ERX" both to counter the A350-1000 and to encourage existing 777-300ER customers in the fold.

I'm a good bit skeptical that Boeing can "complete" the 787 (launch all planned variants and incorporate the bulk of initial updates) and get the 777-300ERX into production while launching an all-new narrowbody and transition from production of the 737NG to the "797" in under a decade.

The 737neo and the 777-300ERX (which would itself mainly be a "neo") are manageable (pun) projects that can be executed by 2015-2017 in conjunction with the "completion" of the 787.

[Edited 2010-12-01 20:45:52]

User currently offlineAloha717200 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 4480 posts, RR: 15
Reply 16, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 14024 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
I'm a good bit skeptical that Boeing can "complete" the 787 (launch all planned variants and incorporate the bulk of initial updates) and get the 777-300ERX into production while launching an all-new narrowbody and transition from production of the 737NG to the "797" in under a decade.

  

Now that the A320NEO is a sure thing, all Boeing has to do to retain market share is do a 737NEO. Granted if they werent tied down with so much else, they could do the 797 and wipe the floor with Airbus, but circumstances don't make that likely. And honestly, they have a reputation to repair, first and foremost.


User currently offlineCentre From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 488 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 14026 times:

Wish to see AC on the order book, they have some of the oldest A320s out there.

Candidates:

Air India
QR
LH
TK
UA
Jetstar
DL
US ( Converting some of their orders).
B6


And last I remember, AA was pushing Boeing to offer an upgrade/new airliner to replace their MDs, and finally they "settled" for the 738, for the lack of alternatives!!.
Now that they have an alternative for the MDs and 752s, probably they will wait and see Boeing's response to the NEO first.
Would love to see the A320/21 in the polished Metal livery!



I have cut 4 times, and it's still short.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30901 posts, RR: 87
Reply 18, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 13994 times:
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Quoting Aloha717200 (Reply 16):
Granted if they werent tied down with so much else, they could do the 797 and wipe the floor with Airbus, but circumstances don't make that likely.

I expect Boeing and Airbus are showing themselves to be much more conservative than their customers may want them to be because there are too many "unknown unknowns" in terms of propulsion and systems technologies that may result in the first to jump being the first one to trip if they commit to the "wrong" direction.


User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10008 posts, RR: 96
Reply 19, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 13887 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
Quoting planemaker (Reply 11):
The purchasing decision is based on a lot more factors than just "fuel burn".

To an Airbus Aficiando, you're speaking heresey there.

I'd beg to differ.
It's a plain common-sense comment  
Quoting Aloha717200 (Reply 16):
Granted if they werent tied down with so much else, they could do the 797 and wipe the floor with Airbus,

Of course, it's a comment that works both ways......   

Rgds


User currently offlineFerpe From France, joined Nov 2010, 2803 posts, RR: 59
Reply 20, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 13673 times:

The question of a new design relies heavily when the game-changing technologies (laminar flow wings, open rotor engines) are ready for prime time. Only then is the investment worth the money.

So where are we with these key technologies?:

- Airbus will fly a laminar flow (outer wing) prototype on a 340-300 in 2014, when is Boeing flying theirs?

- Open rotor engines takes at least another 8-10 years to get to market (my take)

Everything points to an all-new SA after 2020 for both players.



Non French in France
User currently offlineSchorschNG From Germany, joined Sep 2010, 500 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 13591 times:

Quoting Ferpe (Reply 20):
The question of a new design relies heavily when the game-changing technologies (laminar flow wings, open rotor engines) are ready for prime time. Only then is the investment worth the money.

So where are we with these key technologies?:

- Airbus will fly a laminar flow (outer wing) prototype on a 340-300 in 2014, when is Boeing flying theirs?

- Open rotor engines takes at least another 8-10 years to get to market (my take)

Everything points to an all-new SA after 2020 for both players.

Actually, they did do flight tests in the early 90ies with both technologies. While I see a good chance for the open rotor as future game changer, the laminar flow is a dead end. For a 5% saving on zero lift drag you don't have to take so many chances.



From a structural standpoint, passengers are the worst possible payload. [Michael Chun-Yung Niu]
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4395 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 13239 times:

Lufthansa,Swiss, Austrian, Brussels, Midland
Air Berlin, Condor, Easy, Wizzair
Alitalia, Air One, AF
BA, IB, TP

and this is only from a tiny spot of this earth. I would say a list of airlines that will not order the A320NEO is far shorter:

American Airlines, Alaska, Southwest, El Al.


User currently offlinerheinwaldner From Switzerland, joined Jan 2008, 2223 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 13133 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 11):
The purchasing decision is based on a lot more factors than just "fuel burn".

But look where a similar fuel burn reduction has brought the 787 (I don't mean the delays). You have to rewind remembrance to 2005-2007 to see the pattern how A320NEO sales will pick up....


User currently offlinePH-BFA From Netherlands, joined Apr 2002, 562 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (3 years 9 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 13134 times:

IMHO the A320NEO will be a huge succes.. Let's take a look at the facts, current A320 family aircraft are still selling like hotcakes and the possibility for airlines to have an airliner that is burning 15(+?) percent less fuel is a BIG deal for them.

Frankly I don't see a clean sheet Airbus NB before 2025; why would they? They have some serious backlogs for the A320'PG' and I am sure in no matter of time the backlog for the A320NEO will pass 1000 frames as well(and yes I am aware that currently no NEO frame has been ordered yet hahah). It is probably one of the best 'cash cows' they have and will have for the coming years.


25 PH-BFA : Yes, but you can be sure it plays a very, very important role.. Just take a look at the share fuel takes in the overall operating costs for airlines
26 Ronaldo747 : Boeing will stick a while with the 737 and it's coming improvements (maybe some more tweaks after than as well), but thereafter, with lessons learned
27 Burkhard : Anybody can give a number how many liters of Jet-A a typical A320/738 drinks per year? Don't forget that if the economy in the US and UK follow centra
28 Maersk737 : I think a "new" A321 will do as a replacement for the 757. Another question, Can arlines wait until 2022 for a replacement of the aging 757? Peter
29 SchorschNG : Make that roughly 2500kg/hr. Assume a utilization of 2500 to 4000hrs a year, second number represents a very good figure for a single aisle. So at 25
30 Post contains links desediez : According this news: http://www.abendblatt.de/wirtschaft/article1714746/Condor-erneuert-Flotte-Milliardenauftrag-fuer-Airbus.html sorry, only German..
31 Maersk737 : New airplanes will be delivered between 2012 - 2017. It can hardly be NEO? Or am I misunderstanding the German language? Peter
32 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : This plane has got Lufthansa Group written all over it. LH will take dozens no questions asked, then there's OS, LX, BD (not urgent), SN and Germanwin
33 packsonflight : I wonder how many companys, who have signed up for 320s lately have written in to their contracts options to switch to NEO if it would be offered.
34 desediez : Well, so far if EIS is planned for 2016 it may be possible for a part of this order to be NEO...
35 Post contains images Aesma : I guess it depends on what you mean by marginal. If my baguette becomes 10% cheaper it's marginal. If my salary is cut by 10% it's not marginal ! I t
36 columba : I can see some A321NEOs being part of that order. The A321 in its current form is no replacement for the 757s rangewise.
37 CHRISBA777ER : I recall AY signed for some A321s with sharklets a little while back - are they going to take them as NEOs?
38 Post contains links CamiloA380 : Airbus is in talks with Lufthansa, AirAsia, Qatar Airways, International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC), GECAS and IndiGo. They seem pretty interest
39 parapente : The orders (I think) are there .They will just dribble them out piece meal for PR purposes. (ie to keep the NEO "front of mind" for as long as possibl
40 airbazar : United is the world's 4th largest operator of Airbus narrowbodies. They are a sure bet in my opinion. Same for B6, DL and US. All of these airlines w
41 Rising : United management was criticized heavily for not receiving any new aircraft over the past decade. One of the reasons was the Company did not want to
42 CHRISBA777ER : I just think their A320-series will need replacing before CO's 737NGs, and the decision will be whether to stick with the split fleet or just get a l
43 PlaneAdmirer : Has any information been released on upgrading to the NEO vs. the savings? In other words what's the pay back for the price differential? MD-90's at 5
44 KC135TopBoom : Sorry, I just don't see UA, DL, AA, or WN as customers for the A-320NEO. AA is still PO'd at Airbus over the AA587 crash. You won't see any Airbus me
45 airbazar : Do you guys think Airbus will just let two of their largest customers walk away that easily? I'm not sure that after the 787 debacle Boeing will be a
46 aircellist : I don't. Could it have been the same for AC? I don't know the popularity of the planes today, though.
47 CHRISBA777ER : 15% savings on legacy A320s - I dont think its a case of walking away - they'll have an option on either package and it will come down to price, comm
48 CHRISBA777ER : They have 35 A319s, 41 A320s and 10 A321s - thats a HUGE narrowbody fleet to move over to the 737NNG/NEO. They have a huge typerated pool in place fo
49 ACABlaker : Well for us at AC, the NEO so far has no traction and there is a couple reasons. One the current fleet is being utilized quite effectively and we have
50 Post contains images tarheelwings : You're assuming of course that "aficionados" in the sense that Stitch is using the word use common sense to post their comments .....that may not alw
51 SchorschNG : A B737 replacement will probably have the same issues, as the current B737-800 has pretty low weight per Pax. A newer aircraft will have wider fusela
52 PlaneAdmirer : I got that, but how much will the airlines save in relation to how much more will they have to pay for the aircraft? In other words what is the IRR o
53 Goblin211 : I really hope to see delta and united w/ them. as a matter of fact, why wouldn't they both get it? Although the NW A320s are probably not that old and
54 Post contains images columba : Well they are not old by Northwest´s terms Their older ones are some of the oldest A320s flying around
55 MCOflyer : Honestly, I do not see AA nor the new UA. I have a gut feeling they will stick to Boeing. However, I do have a feeling that US and AC will be among th
56 aircellist : Good arguments, of course (wouldn't expect less coming from you!). But it was the same (well, not quite the same, but somewhat alike) when AC did dec
57 Post contains links and images keesje : http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z...adical4Bill737Upgrade737-900XG.jpg WN seems illogical. The A320 NEO is still an interim aircraft with no commo
58 ukoverlander : Given the enormous size of the new United why would they want to tie/limit themselves to just the 737? They have a mixed 320/737 fleet now, they have
59 centre : As if the final price of the NEO will be higher than the NON-NEO by the marketed price of $6M. I'm sure Airbus will sweeten the deal for any US Major
60 keesje : That seems a smart strategy, however some really need 200+ seat NBs this decade. It seems Airbus is still keeping options open with their 2016 EIS. T
61 RoseFlyer : I kind of doubt that. There is over a years worth of engineering resources committed to product development to get the concept anywhere near to launc
62 astuteman : I suspect the lower weight A320's might struggle sometimes, the 73.5 t version carrying 18 tonnes no more than 2 200Nm. But the 77t A320 will carry t
63 cosmofly : Will Airbus continue to offer non-NEO version after NEO is in production? Wonder if any A320 customers would prefer the lower price of non-NEO for the
64 SchorschNG : Unlikely. The line will change. As the dimensions of the aircraft are similar you can run for a while both aircraft in parallel. Did Boeing deliver B
65 KC135TopBoom : That is15% better than the A-320-Classic, as you said. But how does it compare to the latest B-787-800 with the new 2% improvements (currently in fli
66 centre : Boeing has nothing to offer at the moment, and they can't offer it given the timeline of the NEO due to the lack of resources and being stretched "ve
67 Post contains links Pihero : Round it up to 3250 hr/year as we are after all in short-to-medium haul operations. The fuel burned will then be 2500*3250 = 8125 tonnes or 2.7 milli
68 aerorobnz : Maybe Air New Zealand for some A321NEOs??
69 JoeCanuck : Airbus has said they will offer the 320 OEO, as long as people will want it. They plan on standardizing the entire 320 line with the NEO/Sharklet win
70 Daysleeper : Excellent infomation - Thanks. I wonder if this will put an end to the 757 replacement threads..... As from what I can see the A321N is a perfect fit
71 Post contains links rheinwaldner : You, are right. The slide which triggered my interpretation however was not clear. It showed two areas of improvement, each with a figure. I also rea
72 328JET : We are operating both B737-800Ws and A320-200s and it really is no difference in fuel burn. The B737-800 has a little lower CASM because the cabin is
73 Post contains links rheinwaldner : Look at this (in German): http://de.reuters.com/article/topNews/idDEBEE6B100K20101202 says that DL would be very happy with their 150 Airbus aircraft
74 Post contains images columba : Haven´t you learned anything on a.net ??? DL is just saying that because they want a better deal on Boeing aircraft. They have the gentleman´s agre
75 Burkhard : I expect especially the A321 NEO to succeed in the US too, so I would not wonder to have the 73G. So if DL buys 120 aircraft, it will be 80 73G and 40
76 rheinwaldner : Then they are stupid. That is not possible in all cases. It is obvious if you just think for a second what deal Boeing would offer for a >500 seat
77 Post contains images BlueSky1976 : @rheinwaldner: I think Columba was being sarcastic... Chill out, man...
78 airbazar : I agree. There was a time when airlines were regulated and money flowed easily and airlines used to have that privilege. That ended a long time ago.
79 AirNZ : There's no 'need' at all for a 757 replacement, so why does this keep coming up despite the airlines not requiring it. Yes, the 739 fills the majorit
80 parapente : Re the discussion on fuel burn,particularly that the manufacturers numbers only applying to brand new aircraft - then tailing off quickly (like cars!)
81 mariner : I think that is a fair bet. The CEO has said they are interested in slightly more range than the A320 presently gives them. I would guess - and it is
82 centre : That's what I was thinking, they might use a few for their slot limited routes (LGA/DCA) as well as their trunk route. with their recent orders and p
83 Post contains links Stabilator : According to Anderson, Delta will look closely at the A320NEO. Perhaps it's a ploy to get Boeing to decide on a 737 upgrade? Article: http://www.bloom
84 Post contains links FWAERJ : The gentleman's agreement has been dead since the close of the DL/NW merger. Delta CEO Richard Anderson has said before that the new DL is a "free ag
85 centre : And add to that what Anderson said about the 737: “We wish Boeing would do the same, but it doesn’t look like the 737 will have much innovation i
86 jetlanta : Delta's main issue is that it can't wait until 2020 to make a decision. At least part of the fleet needs to start being replaced in the next 3-5 year
87 JoeCanuck : I think this quote from the Bloomberg article is the most telling; Delta has a lot more pressing issues at the moment than their next narrow bodies. B
88 cslusarc : I'd like to see DL buy about 120 of the A32SNEO with deliveries at a rate of 24 per year between the beginning of 2016 and end of 2020. I see DL gett
89 boilerla : The combined United has over 70 widebodies on order and indicated no changes to their fleet would be coming in the immediate future. It's widely spec
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