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Air India - Possible New Routes With 787  
User currently offlinebrahmin From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 83 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 10920 times:

What routes could and would Air India use their 787s when they arrive?

19 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12565 posts, RR: 35
Reply 1, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 10622 times:

India is now well on its way to becoming an economic superpower and the 787 will allow AI (and let's not forget, 9W) to expand to many new markets; I'm thinking that South America (particularly Brazil) would be a possibility, perhaps via SA?

Also, as some indications suggest that it's not effective for AI to fly from DEL and BOM n/s to the US with an economic load, AI may look at a less expensive/congested European hub; the 787s could be used to fly pax from HYD, AMD, ATQ, CCU and other major cities to that hub ... wherever it may be.

Other than that, Australia perhaps? I'm still not quite clear why the Indian govt forced AI to scrap its new Aussie route; sure, AI might be losing money, but if AI couldn't operate the route, why can't another Indian carrier; Australia must be an important market.


User currently offlineAmmunition From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2002, 1065 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 10592 times:

atq/del-bhx
del/bom-man

thats what i would like to see



Saint Augustine- 'The world is a book and those who do not travel, read only 1 page'
User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 10574 times:

DEL/BOM to secondary north-american cities

BLR / HYD / AMD / ATQ / CCU to NY, Chicago, Toronto

DEL/BOM - SF/LA nonstop (EK killer)


User currently offlinegr8circle From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 3124 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 10547 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
I'm still not quite clear why the Indian govt forced AI to scrap its new Aussie route;

Are you sure that the Indian govt "forced" AI to cancel the routes....? I'm not too sure that's what happened (though I may be wrong).....it was just a commercial/fleet utilisation decision that AI's management took......nothing to do with the govt itself, although AI is a govt owned airline.....


User currently offlineSR4ever From Luxembourg, joined Mar 2010, 800 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 10340 times:

AI could certainly use the 788 on some new ULH routes, mainly from DEL/BOM (some also from BLR and MAA) to main hubs of Star Alliance partners, yet where using a 77L or a 77W would probably be too big, at least as start-up frames:

- IAH (EK Killer)
- SFO (EK Killer)
- GRU (EK Killer)
- YVR
- LAX (EK Killer)



AI could also open routes between DEL/BOM and closer Star Alliance main airports, such as

- IST
- GVA
- LIS
- BRU (on condition that the SN-9W partnership ends)
- WAW
- CPH/ARN
- MXP
- MAN (EK Killer)
- CAN
- AKL


Some other major airports may also see 789s in AI livery to/from DEL/BOM:

- AMS
- BER
- FCO
- BHX (EK Killer)
- GLA (EK Killer)
- DME
- LOS
- SYD

One other further use for 789s of AI would be between IST/FRA and the following airports:

- MAA (Stage 1)
- BLR (Stage 1)
- CCU (Stage 1)
- HYD (Stage 1)
- AMD (Stage 2)
- COK (Stage 2)
- CCJ (Stage 2)
- TRV (Stage 2)


LH, TK and other Star Alliance partners could then re-direct passengers to other airports in Europe, Africa and the Americas. Again an alternative to EK, if not a killer  


User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Reply 6, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 9944 times:

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 3):
DEL/BOM to secondary north-american cities

BLR / HYD / AMD / ATQ / CCU to NY, Chicago, Toronto

DEL/BOM - SF/LA nonstop (EK killer)

As far as I know AI has ordered 788 and not 789. 788 does not have the leg to do India-USA non-stop without a significant payload penalty. I think AI should consider changing some 788 to 789 if it plans to connect DEL/BOM to IAH/IAD/ORD/LAX.


User currently offlineojas From India, joined Mar 2008, 2981 posts, RR: 25
Reply 7, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 9841 times:

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 6):
As far as I know AI has ordered 788 and not 789. 788 does not have the leg to do India-USA non-stop without a significant payload penalty.

  

Air India's strategy henceforth does not involve much of expansion but more of fleet rationalization and routes where they need them. The B787s will replace most of the B777-200LRs and subsequently at least 5 of the 8 B77Ls are going to be dumped for sure.

So what will the B787s do?

1) DEL - DXB/SIN/BKK
2) BOM - DXB/SIN/BKK
3) DEL - CDG/FRA/LHR (AI 115/116)
4) DEL - HKG/KIX/ICN
5) DEL - NRT
6) BOM/DEL/HYD/CCJ/MAA/TRV - DMM
5) CCJ - RUH
6) DEL - PVG

So basically the existing routes itself would require around 15 B787s as the above mentioned routes do not use the optimum aircraft. I have considered daily flights for NRT, PVG.

What further expansion to expect from Air India with the B787s?

Nothing much. Here is what Air India has planned and I don't have inputs in this:

1) DEL - MEL
2) DEL or BOM - MAN 4 per week
3) DEL - BHX 4 per week

2-3 aircrafts.So roughly from what we have 16 B787s will be in use out of the 27 they have ordered. The A330s will fill the void for the B787s in the interim measure.

Of the 12 B77Ws they already have

1) DEL - ORD :: 2
2) BOM - EWR :: 2
3) DEL - YYZ :: 2
4) DEL - JFK :: 2
5) BOM - LHR :: 1
6) DEL - LHR :: 1

Now we will have 11 B787s remaining on order and 2 spare B77Ws and 3 B77Ws on order. NOW we come to the favorite part of speculating what should happen. Here is what I feel:

1) Get rid of all the B777-200LRs, A310s (which are going anyways), leased A330s (one by one as the B787s come) and B747-400s (keep 2 for VVVIP operations).

2) Use the B77Ws on routes replacing the B744. That is BOM/DEL/TRV/CCJ - RUH & BOM/DEL/HYD /CCJ - JED which will require 4 B77Ws and one can be as a spare. So there you have all 12 B77Ws utilizes.

3) The only place in the US left for Air India is SFO and that would need a B789 and in due course have all the US non stops on the B789. For that they would need 11 B789s which perfectly coincides with the 11 order.

Air India is not going to become an EK or anything of that. They really need to improve their financial performance and for that it is wise they have stable operations without much unnecessary expansion. Other than MEL, MAN, BHX there aren't really that many markets that require AI's presence. For those places the Star Alliance partners will be handy, say UA in USA, AC in Canada, LH in Europe, NZ, DJ/VA down under, ANA for Far east.

I would personally want to see more stable performance oriented Air India and there isn't anything really out-of-the-box I have suggested.



A lion does not concern himself with the opinions of the sheep
User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3014 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 9447 times:

Quoting gr8circle (Reply 4):
Are you sure that the Indian govt "forced" AI to cancel the routes....? I'm not too sure that's what happened (though I may be wrong).....it was just a commercial/fleet utilisation decision that AI's management took......nothing to do with the govt itself, although AI is a govt owned airline.....

The Indian govt did at first reject the carriers request to fly to MEL. It has apparently, in reports I had read, since been given permission, but AI have not confirmed any details of the flights. AI has become abit of a joke in the eyes of many in this state, given that it has twice, first under Indian Airlines in 2007, announced plans to start and then cancelled.

The MEL route could really do well for AI, but its a matter of whatever political game thats being played at the time which dictates what can and can not happen. In the meantime, SQ and MH, in particular, can continue on their merry way, taking advantage of the large passenger demand between MEL and India.


User currently offlineojas From India, joined Mar 2008, 2981 posts, RR: 25
Reply 9, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 9343 times:

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 8):
The MEL route could really do well for AI, but its a matter of whatever political game thats being played at the time which dictates what can and can not happen. In the meantime, SQ and MH, in particular, can continue on their merry way, taking advantage of the large passenger demand between MEL and India.

The MEL route rejection was a valid one. There has been ahuge amount of drop in student traffic and cancellations of existing applications. Because of which the projected traffic was poor. The B787 will be an operationally better to perform this route and hopefully by that time the traffic would show a positive growth to MEL.



A lion does not concern himself with the opinions of the sheep
User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3014 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 9294 times:

Quoting ojas (Reply 9):
The MEL route rejection was a valid one. There has been ahuge amount of drop in student traffic and cancellations of existing applications. Because of which the projected traffic was poor. The B787 will be an operationally better to perform this route and hopefully by that time the traffic would show a positive growth to MEL.

Still do not buy it sorry.

If you make a decision to launch, which was made after any possible downward trend would have been seen (for which I highly doubt exists in real terms), stick to it. It just looks very unprofessional. In my view, it remains a political decision, which MEL was just a victim of.

As I said before, SQ in particular continues to be the main benificiary of AI's, or the Indian govts, inaction. There are still growing numbers of the Indian population here, who are not students. That market is large enough in itself.

Get your act together AI. Inaction on this level really will just see any chance of making a route work fall away, based on credibility in the marketplace.


User currently offlinegardermoen From Australia, joined Jul 1999, 1522 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 9279 times:

From what I have read elsewhere, AI were finally given permisson by the Indian government and are apparently "working it out" now, as the original December launch date has well and truly passed. Also, didn't they mention that they planned on having some kind of a regional office in MEL as well?
There is a record number of Indian arrivals at MEL (be it, students, VFR, tourists, whatever), so overall I doubt the numbers are taking a dip. Whatever AI is not doing can only be of benefit to SQ/CX/TG/MH.


User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3014 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 9267 times:

Quoting gardermoen (Reply 11):
From what I have read elsewhere, AI were finally given permisson by the Indian government and are apparently "working it out" now, as the original December launch date has well and truly passed. Also, didn't they mention that they planned on having some kind of a regional office in MEL as well?
There is a record number of Indian arrivals at MEL (be it, students, VFR, tourists, whatever), so overall I doubt the numbers are taking a dip. Whatever AI is not doing can only be of benefit to SQ/CX/TG/MH.

Fully agree with all that. Same info I had seen.

Yeah, MEL was meant to become their regional HQ.

Its just a pity that it all played out this way so far.


User currently offlineojas From India, joined Mar 2008, 2981 posts, RR: 25
Reply 13, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 9245 times:

Quoting gardermoen (Reply 11):

From what I have read elsewhere, AI were finally given permisson by the Indian government and are apparently "working it out" now,

Exactly, Air India got clearance to start MEL in the last week of October itself. It's upto Air India now to start if they want.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 10):
(for which I highly doubt exists in real terms)

You said it yourself as you are speculating.

It's not that Australian students are backtracking to India after the violent attacks on them. The number of students who have applied for further education in Australia has nose dived to an alarming level. You can pick out any public data available and you would infer how fewer applications have been received for Universities in Victoria for th next semester. There has been a 43% reduction in applications to those universities than what it would have been and of the people who applied nearly 65% of students have cancelled their applications. This is why there is still a discussion whether to go ahead or not.

Secondly the DEL - MEL traffic as high as it looks is a very risky market given it is primarily a VFR market only. The yields would be nothing great even if they offer LHR connections.The thing is, yes if AI starts this route, from the business point of view is a sensible one as one should nurture develop and establish a strong presence in Australia once again. However the flip side is that AIr India is not at all in any financial position to start a competitive Long haul route which will take more than 2 years to break even. Also adding to this Air India is facing a hard time with crew shortage for the B777s. Another aspect is the aircraft to be used. The B77W will just be excess capacity and the B77L just operationally expensive even though they have a lesser seating configuration. Which is why the B787 is the right aircraft for this.

The reasons put by the ministry at least on paper look sensible, though I very much know it was a political decision to irritate AI. Even the schedules are finalised for this service as AI 412/413 arriving into MEL.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 10):
It just looks very unprofessional. In my view, it remains a political decision, which MEL was just a victim of.

We are talking about Air India, these things hardly matter to them.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 10):
As I said before, SQ in particular continues to be the main benificiary of AI's,

EK is the main beneficiary and not SQ. And now with enhanced connectivity throughout US, ATI for BA-AA, much of the India - west coast US traffic has gone away from SQ. They now rely mainly on Australia and O-D.



A lion does not concern himself with the opinions of the sheep
User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3014 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 9165 times:

Quoting ojas (Reply 13):
EK is the main beneficiary and not SQ. And now with enhanced connectivity throughout US, ATI for BA-AA, much of the India - west coast US traffic has gone away from SQ. They now rely mainly on Australia and O-D.

The point was regarding Australia-India routes, not any other. EK has a market on it too, but SQ is the main benificary of the lack on non-stop optiosn on this route.

As for student traffic, good luck relying on that as a valuable means of year round service demand. Its highly seasonal anyway. As I stated before, and stand by, the size of the Indian population, permanently settled here, is the highest it has ever been and continues to grow. MEL airport has released data breakdown for pax, Indian passport holders continue to grow at a strong rate. Dont take one part of a data source and think its representative of a broader trend.

Currently there is a much more broad ranged market, in its demand charactistics, which is stronger than relying on any suplemental student traffic trends could ever be. Of course its high in VFR, but tourism is still growing dramatically, with expanding business ties.


User currently offlineojas From India, joined Mar 2008, 2981 posts, RR: 25
Reply 15, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 9029 times:

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 14):
The point was regarding Australia-India routes,

Even on those routes SQ's honeymoon days are over. 9W-QF, TG, MH, Air Asia all compete fiercely on these segments.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 14):
As I stated before, and stand by, the size of the Indian population, permanently settled here, is the highest it has ever been and continues to grow. MEL airport has released data breakdown for pax, Indian passport holders continue to grow at a strong rate. Dont take one part of a data source and think its representative of a broader trend.

And the same applies here as well. Just because one sees a 1000 Indians around the city does not translate into daily flights. The traffic that you mention is a part of the VFR traffic which again does not hold much consideration when you start a flight UNLESS that volume is as high as in the US or middle eastern countries. But then again these countries too have much stronger business ties with India than in Australia.

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 14):
Of course its high in VFR, but tourism is still growing dramatically, with expanding business ties.

This is the important factor which has not been highlighted. The business ties with Australia are far lesser than many countries India does business with. Qantas attempted a BOM - SYD which failed and now they simply hub the VFR traffic via SIN across Australia.

Second aspect is tourism. As an average Indian, or let's say a decently wealthy Indian, Australia does not exactly fall in any of their top three holidaying destinations and from nowhere I see a very strong upward trend.

To summarize Air India would need to heavily rely on the student traffic which has taken a setback. Having said that Air India might even go ahead and start with it, but what I'm trying to say is that as much strong it seems the argument to start this DEL - MEL flight, there are equally strong and compelling reasons for them not do this as well.



A lion does not concern himself with the opinions of the sheep
User currently offlineabrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5126 posts, RR: 55
Reply 16, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 8783 times:

DEL-MEL is like DEL-YVR. These routes are not as highly rewarding as some think. They are low-yielding (both from the Indian and the Australian/Canadian pax profile view) and just does not justify the premium that must be commanded from flying nonstop.

Saludos,
A.



Live, and let live.
User currently offlineFlyingsottsman From Australia, joined Oct 2010, 559 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 8457 times:

I reacon AI will wait untill they get the 787, we heard in October that they were going to start flying here, then November now we are 2 weeks away from Christmas and we have not heard when they are going to start flying to MEL. I dont think we will see AI here untill early next year if at all. There is a big Indian population here in MEL, but that still does not garentee wheather the service will be sucsessful for AI.

User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3014 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 8441 times:

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 17):
I reacon AI will wait untill they get the 787, we heard in October that they were going to start flying here, then November now we are 2 weeks away from Christmas and we have not heard when they are going to start flying to MEL. I dont think we will see AI here untill early next year if at all. There is a big Indian population here in MEL, but that still does not garentee wheather the service will be sucsessful for AI.

No route is garaunteed of success. Obviously it seemed to make sense during this year for them to start it, until the Indian govt politics got in the way.

Remembering that this service is a key part of their DEL hub concept, so it plays into a broader plan. It should not be looked at in isolation, which is why I feel some are being very short sighted about this service, writing it off straight off, making assumptions based on assumed trends, or discounting how it adds to the greater plan in motion.


User currently offlineojas From India, joined Mar 2008, 2981 posts, RR: 25
Reply 19, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 8324 times:

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 18):
Remembering that this service is a key part of their DEL hub concept, so it plays into a broader plan. It should not be looked at in isolation, which is why I feel some are being very short sighted about this service, writing it off straight off, making assumptions based on assumed trends, or discounting how it adds to the greater plan in motion.

Which is why Air India ought to wait for sometime. It definitely will play a significant part int he hub structure but that does not mean in the opening month add 50 flights on either sides. Air India's hub has barely started functioning for over a month and has still not stabilized. Secondly from the connections point of view, other than LHR it does not connect well to any other international destination.

By the time the B787 comes, traffic would have shown positive trends, DEL hub stabilized, more connections on offer and coming over all teething issues. That's why it should not be done hastily.



A lion does not concern himself with the opinions of the sheep
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