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AA Domestic Network: Potential Future Routes  
User currently offlinerealsim From Spain, joined Apr 2010, 645 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 12654 times:

Hello all,

Recently we've been hearing a lot about AA future international routes related to their JV with BA/IB and JL, and for sure these new international markets will require more feed from the domestic AA network in the USA. This is why it could be interesting to discuss which routes you think that AA could try in the near future, and which are the biggests gaps in the five cornerstones strategy.

I have collected the 52 US metropolitan areas with population greater than a million people, and I have looked for the flights from these 52 areas to the five AA cornerstones (DFW, ORD, MIA, NYC and LAX - However, I have divided NYC in LGA and JFK). This way, we can see which are the biggest metropolitan areas that are not connected to each hub. Of course, there are a lot of other factors to be taken into account, like market size, distance, type of travelers, etc. but like this we could have a first look at what we have right now and what could be studied. Just as a note, the 52 metropolitan areas represent almost 170 million people, or about 55% of the total US population.

The following table shows the weekday daily flights that AA has from the six hub airports to the airports situated within each metropolitan area. The data is for next MAY2011. Below you can see what the different colors mean:

(to see the table bigger click on it)

- Strong green: there is at least 2 daily flights in that city pair.
- Light green: there is 1 daily flight (what could lead to less possible connections).
- Red: there is no AA service at all.
- Orange: there is AA service to a nearby airport, normally considered as within the same metropolitan area.
- Blue: AA doesn't serve the route but codeshares with another carrier (Alaska Airlines).
- Yellow: AA serves the route from JFK but not from LGA or vice versa.



One first conclusion is that of the 52 metropolitan areas considered, Providence is the only one not served by AA.

As it was obvious, DFW and ORD are the best covered hubs, followed by MIA, NYC and LAX. However, if JFK and LGA are considered as two units, then LAX has more metropolitan areas served non-stop.

To complement the above table, I have represented in a map the metropolitan areas served by AA from each hub, and the missing ones. Like this, we can have a geographical representation of them and see which regions are most needed.

1.- DFW:

From DFW, AA serves 48 out of the 51 metro over a million people. Only PVD, BUF and ROC are not served non-stop, and the three are further than 1300 mi.



2.- ORD:

From ORD, AA serves 46 out of 51. PDX, SMF, ORF, PVD and BHM are not served.



3.- MIA:

From MIA, AA serves 35 out of 51. Of the 16 missing, Ontario is served from LAX, San Jose from SFO, and Seattle by Alaska. Less than 1300 mi away from Miami, SAT, MCI, AUS, PVD, MKE, OKC, BUF and ROC are not served. Further than that there are SAN, PDX, SMF, SLC and TUS.



4.- LAX:

From LAX, AA serves 21 out of 50. SEA and PDX are served by Alaska, and BWI is served from IAD. Of the TOP30, PHL, ATL, DTW, MSP, TPA, PIT, CVG, CLE, SAT and MCI are not served. SAT, MCI and MSP are the nearest ones (1300-1600 mi).



5.- NYC:

From NYC, AA serves 27 out of 51 (19 out of 51 from JFK, 13 out of 36 from LGA). Of the TOP30, PHL, IAH, PHX, DEN, PDX, SMF, SAT and MCI are not served neither from LGA nor JFK. Almost all of the cities not served from LGA are less than 1000mi from it, and 14 from JFK.



From JFK only:



From LGA only:



So, up to this point, which do you think are the biggest gaps in AA network? Which ones could be successful and should be launched first? My first thoughts are that these city pairs should be considered:

- NYC-IAH and PHX
- LAX-ATL and DTW
- ORD-PDX, SMFand PVD
- MIA-MCI

I hope you find the above information useful, and I expect your answers to discuss about the potential domestic routes that AA should launch in the future.

87 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3733 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 12614 times:

Quoting realsim (Thread starter):
2.- ORD:

From ORD, AA serves 46 out of 51. PDX, SMF, ORF, PVD and BHM are not served.

Make that 47 out of 51.

AA codeshares with Alaska on ORD-PDX.



Primary Airport: FWA/Alternate Airport: DTW/Not employed by the FWACAA or their partners
User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1904 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 12557 times:

Quoting realsim (Thread starter):
- NYC-IAH and PHX

I think AA will continue to use B6 on PHX-JFK.

Regarding LAX-ATL/DTW, DL is very strong on these routes and there are really not many additional routes beyond LA that could not also be reached via ORD/DFW from ATL/DTW. Therefore, I think the chances of these two routes are slim.

BTW, nice overall summary / maps.

[Edited 2010-12-13 14:41:07]

User currently offlinecatiii From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 3029 posts, RR: 4
Reply 3, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 12553 times:

I think with any potential routes out of JFK, one has to consider the potential synergies from a codeshare with B6 9which as of August apparently was still in negotiation). I know that, living in the NYC area, I certainly would look to fly them if given the opportunity. I haven't been thrilled with my carrier of choice lately.

User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7535 posts, RR: 25
Reply 4, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 12472 times:

Where AA makes a good deal of their money is actually on the much smaller markets that have little competition. Those flight are very high yielding where as a lot of flights between major markets are lower yielding.


Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently onlineFlyingSicilian From Italy, joined Mar 2009, 1317 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 12440 times:

"back in the day" i.e. a few years ago AA had AUS-HOU-LGA service (yes HOU not IAH) which IIRC was to skirt the mileage limit for AUS-LGA

I miss that service as I used it often, and it gave AA fflyers a small alternative in the Houston metro market

Too bad it is gone. But of course jetBlue came in HOU-NYC now. and CO stopped its HOU-NYC service.



Ciao Windjet mi manchi
User currently offlinecatiii From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 3029 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 12369 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
Where AA makes a good deal of their money is actually on the much smaller markets that have little competition. Those flight are very high yielding where as a lot of flights between major markets are lower yielding.

So what you're saying is that on routes where they have little competition, they can get higher fares, whereas on routes where they have more competition there are lower fares? Nooo....really??  


User currently offlineLonghornmaniac From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 3284 posts, RR: 44
Reply 7, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 12350 times:

Really interesting info, thanks for compiling it. Do you mind if I keep the table for personal use?

I'm incredibly biased, but one of the most glaring omissions (as I've been saying for YEARS here) in the AA domestic network is AUS-MIA. If you look at that chart, there are only select few routes that don't have another airline with a significant presence (meaning non hub/focus city) on either side of the route. AUS-MIA is one of them. AUS is one of the largest outstations served by AA in terms of seats/day, and has a very loyal FF base (which arose, in large part, to the tech boom of the mid 1990s).

When you consider the fact, as well, that JFK is much more of an international hub than domestic, it's not surprising a lot of large MSAs don't have JFK service.

Quoting realsim (Thread starter):
NYC-IAH

This is a tough market to break into. With CO having hubs on both ends of that flight, it's going to be difficult to get a lot of O&D, I would imagine. AA also tried LGA-HOU, with direct service to AUS. Didn't last all that long, even when not competing directly with CO.

Quoting realsim (Thread starter):
PHX

Probably more likely than IAH. Even still, ORD is a logical connection point, and AA may prefer to send passengers through there or DFW, which isn't that far out of the way, either.

Quoting realsim (Thread starter):
LAX-ATL and DTW

I would imagine DL has a total stranglehold on these markets. Both can be easily serviced through other hubs (DFW for ATL, ORD for DTW), I'd imagine AA doesn't want to get into a fare war with DL on this route.

Quoting realsim (Thread starter):
ORD-PDX, SMF

   AA canceled PDX not that long ago, but as they continue to take 738 deliveries, I wouldn't be surprised to see one or both of these return.

Quoting realsim (Thread starter):
PVD

It is curious that AA doesn't serve PVD at all. Perhaps between BDL and BOS, and a fairly saturated market in the NE, they don't see a huge lost opportunity here.

Quoting realsim (Thread starter):
MIA-MCI

  

Honestly, it's surprising how many routes AA is missing out of MIA. As strong as their Latin American connection opportunities are, their domestic feed to these routes really seems to have been cherry-picked. I have maintained, and will continue to maintain, AA needs to continue upping their domestic feed into MIA.

Thanks again, will be interesting to see how this thread develops.

Cheers,
Cameron


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7535 posts, RR: 25
Reply 8, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 12227 times:

Quoting catiii (Reply 6):
So what you're saying is that on routes where they have little competition, they can get higher fares, whereas on routes where they have more competition there are lower fares? Nooo....really??

The thread was geared toward the major markets and the proposed flights given were major markets with lots of compeition. Its obviously something that needed saying.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 12196 times:

the number of destinations and frequencies at JFK is just horrible for a supposedly European hub. and if you substract out Chicago, Dallas, and Miami, AA's passenger volume from LGA is not all that impressive (meaning it acts as a strong spoke and less as a hub)

I'm all for a stronger since hub in NYC as opposed to splitting it 2 ways and neither getting realistic strength against the onslaught of CO, DL, and B6.

and let's all agree that at this point LAX only has the strength of a focus city. A true LAX hub involves a much diverse set of destinations plus a comprehensive TransPac network (and for that, i'm semi disputing UA's claim of a hub too)


User currently offlinerealsim From Spain, joined Apr 2010, 645 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 12194 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
Where AA makes a good deal of their money is actually on the much smaller markets that have little competition. Those flight are very high yielding where as a lot of flights between major markets are lower yielding.
Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 7):
This is a tough market to break into. With CO having hubs on both ends of that flight, it's going to be difficult to get a lot of O&D, I would imagine. AA also tried LGA-HOU, with direct service to AUS. Didn't last all that long, even when not competing directly with CO.
Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 7):
I would imagine DL has a total stranglehold on these markets. Both can be easily serviced through other hubs (DFW for ATL, ORD for DTW), I'd imagine AA doesn't want to get into a fare war with DL on this route.

Yes, of course, but my point here wasn't about benefit but more about building a solid network to keep the loyal AA flyers and corporate contracts in the company, and to feed the international operations of AA and its partners.

If AA wants to make JFK their primary TATL gateway, they should be able to provide connections to the most important/populated cities of the USA, and the same could be said about LAX and Asia (because of their OW partners there). This is why I think that big markets like Houston should have a one-stop option to Europe (via JFK), or Atlanta to Asia (via LAX). DFW provide connections to almost all the MSAs, but from DFW there are "only" 4 European destinations and 1 in Asia, so some markets would be a 2-stop journey.

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 7):
Really interesting info, thanks for compiling it. Do you mind if I keep the table for personal use?

Yes, you can use it wherever you want, no problem   


User currently offlinejpetekyxmd80 From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 4383 posts, RR: 29
Reply 11, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 12147 times:

Thats a real interesting display you put together there, thanks for doing that.


The Best Care in the Air, 1984-2009
User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1904 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 12127 times:

Quoting realsim (Reply 10):
Atlanta to Asia (via LAX).

Atlanta (and Detroit) can already reach Asia via ORD/DFW. The LAX operation does not provide too many additional destinations that cannot already be reached via ORD/DFW.


User currently offlinecatiii From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 3029 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 12100 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 8):
The thread was geared toward the major markets and the proposed flights given were major markets with lots of compeition. Its obviously something that needed saying.

I was making a joke, but I appreciate the comment.

Quoting realsim (Reply 10):
This is why I think that big markets like Houston should have a one-stop option to Europe (via JFK)

I may not be fully grasping the extent of AA's European service out of JFK, but I imagine it's comparable in the number of cities served to ORD. If the goal is to get the passenger from Houston to Europe, what's the difference if they connect in JFK or ORD? Entering the IAH-NYC market seems to me to be one of those things that seems like a good idea, but there's a lot of capacity when you're competing against CO/UA with it's 9+ nonstops to the NYC market each day (that also connect to a strong European bank), and DL with an admittedly smaller once a day CR9 (that doesn't really feed a European bank I guess).


User currently onlineFlyingSicilian From Italy, joined Mar 2009, 1317 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 12075 times:

Quoting catiii (Reply 13):
If the goal is to get the passenger from Houston to Europe, what's the difference if they connect in JFK or ORD? Entering the IAH-NYC market seems to me to be one of those things that seems like a good idea, but there's a lot of capacity when you're competing against CO/UA with it's 9+ nonstops to the NYC market each day (that also connect to a strong European bank), and DL with an admittedly smaller once a day CR9 (that doesn't really feed a European bank I guess).

Not to mention OneWorld flights non-stop on BA to LHR (twice daily) and n/s to AMS/CDG/FRA on multiple carriers and even the SQ DME non-stop (and as noted you have the single hop connections via EWR, many on widebody aircraft from IAH)



Ciao Windjet mi manchi
User currently offlineckfred From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 5208 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 11742 times:

AA used to fly ORD-PVD. But between UA and WN flying MDW-PVD, the route became uprofitable.

User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22847 posts, RR: 20
Reply 16, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 11741 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 8):
The thread was geared toward the major markets and the proposed flights given were major markets with lots of compeition.

Yes, although there are certainly some smaller markets where there might be opportunities on there. For instance, I expected that AA would start ORD-ORF as they dehubbed STL, and I still think there might be a chance to make some money there.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineSESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3471 posts, RR: 10
Reply 17, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 11616 times:

Quoting catiii (Reply 13):
Entering the IAH-NYC market seems to me to be one of those things that seems like a good idea, but there's a lot of capacity when you're competing against CO/UA with it's 9+ nonstops to the NYC market each day (that also connect to a strong European bank), and DL with an admittedly smaller once a day CR9 (that doesn't really feed a European bank I guess).
DL's IAH-JFK service does feed the European bank. Passengers flying IAH-JFK can connect to DUB, LHR, MAD, BCN, CDG, FRA, BRU, AMS, TXL, MXP, FCO, TLV, AMM, NCE, VCE, AGP, among other destinations. I could easily see AA adding an IAH-JFK flight with a 738 to connect to its flights to Europe if it sees fit.

Jeremy

[Edited 2010-12-13 17:02:27]

User currently offlinecatiii From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 3029 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 11546 times:

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 17):
DL's IAH-JFK service does feed the European bank.

Looking at their schedule, they have a single flight that departs at 8:00A and arrives into JFK at 12:34P (at least looking at today's schedule). I don't know many passengers that willingly would depart that early in the AM and sit at JFK for 5 hours to go to FCO, 6 hours to go to LHR, 8.5 hours to go to TLV, 8.5 hours to go to DUB, 8 hours to go to AMM, 5.5 hours to BCN etc. So while technically it arrives in time to feed Europe, I don't think it is sold or marketed as the optimal schedule. Maybe the summer schedule is different.

If you type IAH-FCO into their flight schedule for today for example, the two shortest options at 12.5 hours and departing at 4:15 and 4:20P are connecting through AMS and CDG. The next shortest options connects through ATL at 13.5 hours, departing at 11AM. The JFK option comes up mid way down the page at 16:55 total travel time.


User currently offlineSESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3471 posts, RR: 10
Reply 19, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 11495 times:

Quoting catiii (Reply 18):

Looking at their schedule, they have a single flight that departs at 8:00A and arrives into JFK at 12:34P (at least looking at today's schedule). I don't know many passengers that willingly would depart that early in the AM and sit at JFK for 5 hours to go to FCO, 6 hours to go to LHR, 8.5 hours to go to TLV, 8.5 hours to go to DUB, 8 hours to go to AMM, 5.5 hours to BCN etc. So while technically it arrives in time to feed Europe, I don't think it is sold or marketed as the optimal schedule. Maybe the summer schedule is different.

My mistake. Starting in February, the IAH flight will depart at 11:45A arriving in JFK at 4:18P.

Jeremy


User currently offlineAirport From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 11472 times:

IF (and it's a big if), say, LAX-BOI meets or beats expectations for American Eagle, what are the prospects of DFW-BOI? Considering CO express at least struck temporary success with that route back in 2004-2006, I would love to see a link to Texas. I would ask about ORD-BOI, but I imagine that route probably has plenty of seats with UA in the market.

Cheers!
Anthony/Airport


User currently offlineWA707atMSP From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 2219 posts, RR: 8
Reply 21, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 11383 times:

I could see AA might add 1x day LAX-ATL at some point, because of the corporate contracts AA has in LAX.

LAX-DTW is another matter entirely. Before deregulation, AA flew LAX-DTW 2x day with DC-10s, and UA also flew 2x day DC-10s on the route. Passenger and cargo traffic between Detroit and Los Angeles declined significantly after GM closed their assembly plants in Van Nuys and South Gate, and Ford closed their Pico Rivera assembly plant. It's rather telling that DL offers about the same number of seats between LAX and DTW as AA and UA did before deregulation, but DL supports the route with feed from dozens of cities; AA and UA supported the route almost soley on local traffic.



Seaholm Maples are #1!
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32689 posts, RR: 72
Reply 22, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 11242 times:

Quoting Airport (Reply 20):
IF (and it's a big if), say, LAX-BOI meets or beats expectations for American Eagle, what are the prospects of DFW-BOI? Considering CO express at least struck temporary success with that route back in 2004-2006, I would love to see a link to Texas. I would ask about ORD-BOI, but I imagine that route probably has plenty of seats with UA in the market.

Needs a CR7, probably, and the CR7s are gone from Dallas at the start of April.



a.
User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5400 posts, RR: 12
Reply 23, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 11144 times:

I join those in praising your work here Realsim -- outstanding data presentation -- and lots of it! Kudos at you!!!

Quoting Longhornmaniac (Reply 7):
I'm incredibly biased, but one of the most glaring omissions (as I've been saying for YEARS here) in the AA domestic network is AUS-MIA. If you look at that chart, there are only select few routes that don't have another airline with a significant presence (meaning non hub/focus city) on either side of the route. AUS-MIA is one of them. AUS is one of the largest outstations served by AA in terms of seats/day, and has a very loyal FF base (which arose, in large part, to the tech boom of the mid 1990s).

I am also similarly biased Longhorn', although not as much toward your fine city, and given the opportunity such as this great thread, I will not hesitate to state the case for SAN-MIA as well! And I know that both of our cities are always mentioned in any discussions of future "any-day-now" expansion by AA in south Florida. But of course, here we both sit with no n/s service to that major AA hub! Very frustrating is it not?

SAN has the envious honor of being the largest city in the lower 48 states with absolutely NO service at all, on anyone, to the state of Florida! Two markets from SAN (MCO and S Florida, which includes MIA/FLL/PBI) average more than 200 PDEW year-round in O&D traffic alone; MIA/FLL averages over 230 PDEW over the last 4 years.

We are also lucky/unlucky enough to have a large city 100 miles north that currently sees about 7 or 8 n/s a day to MIA on AA. I guarantee that if n/s service from Lindbergh Field to MIA were begun, at least one of those LA-departures would be unnecessary.

I feel your pain, man!...

bb


User currently offlineUSAirALB From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 3051 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (3 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 11079 times:

Quoting realsim (Thread starter):
One first conclusion is that of the 52 metropolitan areas considered, Providence is the only one not served by AA.

I believe you left out Albany out of the list which has a CSA metro population of 1,151,653.

ALB suffered the same fate as PVD did...



E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/319/320/321/333
25 n9801f : The approach of taking a "city" perspective and examining gaps from hubs to largest unserved local markets is solid. You can add additional color by
26 EnviroTO : I think as you have shown the greatest opportunities are in the NYC hub. All the other hubs serve all the nearby large cities and leave out only a few
27 pvd757 : But PVD is 37th out of 52 - not like it's at the bottom of the list. Although WN has about a 50% market share here, there is no LFC service to the Ca
28 catiii : Is the community large enough to warrant its own service, beyond what is already offered in BOS? I think WN has carved out a nice niche for itself po
29 slcdeltarumd11 : Honestly AA has DFW covered. ORD also has pretty good coverage. MIA, and LAX seem to have the best possible expansion possibilities. JFK has such a be
30 pvd757 : PVD has no nonstops to PBI either. The PVD-soFLA market is served 1X daily year-round with a second frequency about 9 months of the year, all on WN. C
31 MAH4546 : No, it actually won't be. Traffic to Miami - even leisure - tends to be high yielding. On the SLC-terminating side, you have a good amount of ski tra
32 SESGDL : Yet DL, with a large FF base on one end and a large hub on the other couldn't make it work. Yet MIA is unable to get nonstop service to PVD. Speaks v
33 Post contains images pvd757 : How much can I pay you to convince AA that?? lol
34 Post contains images SESGDL : If it were true AA wouldn't need convincing now would it? Jeremy
35 pvd757 : The reality is, they would fill it, but they are filling them in BOS with PVD + BOS passengers. PVD suffers from massive leakage to many unserved mar
36 AVLAirlineFreq : Very interesting data. Thanks for the work. On a somewhat unrelated note, what did you use to put together the route maps shown in the original post?
37 MAH4546 : Delta pulled MIA-SLC along with various other East Coast routes due to equipment shortages it started experiencing in 2005. Delta continues to servic
38 n9801f : Right, sure. But if you rank the markets by total passenger $$$ revenue $$$ instead of passenger volume, PVD, which has many using WN ( = low fares)
39 SESGDL : Not at all. I was being as literal as I could. But isn't that the Catch-22 with practically every mid-size+ US city? Flights can be filled almost eve
40 Post contains images n9801f : Strongly agreed! There aren't too many "obvious" successes that have been overlooked. When something big changes (fuel price, dramatic change in dema
41 FlyPNS1 : True, buy you also said that MIA traffic is high-yielding. So if MIA-PVD is an easy to fill market (your words) and MIA is high yield (your words), t
42 Post contains images fxramper : Excellent piece of reporting. Thanks for taking time to put this thread together. Would make those S. America connections a lot easier. No more XXX-M
43 lat41 : Actually AA was flying the route with E145s which were a puny high cost mismatch for the route. Also at that time, ORD, along with the DFW service, w
44 n7371f : I thought Eagle tried BOI-DFW on the CR7 several years ago..
45 John : AA is still paying for their (unused) gates/facilities in PVD, are they not?
46 Post contains images crAAzy : A few years ago AA was considering starting MKE-LGA but the decided to run the route out of Madison instead due to the competition from YX. The route
47 BNAOWB : Your analysis is incredibly interesting. Thanks! Comparing the chart with the map, it looks like the following routes do not belong on the LGA only ma
48 n9801f : You're right that RJ's have high CASM and are generally incompatible with low-yield traffic. AA sometimes uses RJ's to skim out the cream (low volume
49 MAH4546 : MIA is high-yielding based on average fare data compared to other airports across the board. Individual factors in certain markets - in PVD's case se
50 will777 : Is there a possibility that AA would start PHL-LAX? I know that US operates this route 5x daily and UA operates it another 2x daily I believe. Would t
51 jreuschl : Any chance that AA (or any other carrier) would consider a MKE-London flight? Are there any int'l routes from ORD that could use another flight, and i
52 GSPSPOT : Totally agreed. Same (or similar?) with GSP. The 2009 estimate showed our CSA at 1,264,930. We lost ORD service on AA/Eagle a while back. Granted, we
53 Alias1024 : PVD and to a lesser extent PDX appear to be rather large gaps in coverage for AA. The statistics appear to be based on Metropolitan Statistical Area (
54 Post contains images GSPSPOT : Oh, gotcha... The Greenville-Mauldin-Easley MSA was est. at 639,617. I sure do hate how they broke up the CSAs into smaller parts! But wouldn't using
55 TOMMY767 : AA has some holes in the domestic network: MIA to: AUS, PVD, BUF, MCI, SAN, SEA, MDT, MHT, MKE, ROC, SAT. AA won't be able to do anything unless they
56 MAH4546 : It has a ~22% market share compared to Delta's ~26%. It is very healthy at LGA, and has simply switched from a bunch of smaller markets like Bangor a
57 SESGDL : MIA suffers from extremely low domestic O&D, especially when looking at the size of AA's hub there. FLL caters to the domestic market while MIA c
58 MAH4546 : No, it doesn't. Domestic O&D at MIA has absolutely skyrocketed by more than 35% in the past few years, ever since AA started it's "Simplifares" s
59 SESGDL : No, it doesn't. As of the most recent statistics, published for the 12 months ending September 2010, DL had a near 29% market share at LGA, while AA
60 DFWEagle : I would not say “many”. In fact, I would go as far as to say that MIA-MSP is quite a rare example. Besides that route, I believe only Phoenix and
61 MAH4546 : Thanks for the correction, although the actual numbers are 28.9% versus 20.8%. I was using year-end 2009, which is actually AA ~21.5% and DL ~27.5%.
62 MAH4546 : Correct. It is just Minneapolis, Phoenix and Savannah, plus 5w to Vail and 2w to Tulsa. During the summer, add Hartford, which goes to 1x daily.
63 yellowtail : Well to most of the S & C American desitnations you could go AUS-IAH-XXXXX unless of course you are going to Santiago.
64 FWAERJ : Didn't NW (Airlink) run MSN-LGA (and then close it after Eagle left the market) just to run Eagle off?
65 MAH4546 : Or Santa Cruz, La Paz, Belo Horizonte, Recife, Salvador, Cali, Medellin, Maracaibo, Montevideo, Guayaquil and Brasilia. Though AUS-LatAm is small; it
66 LAXdude1023 : The only markets that are significant from Austin to Central/South America are served at DFW.
67 United_fan : ROC used to have an MQ CR7 to DFW it RON'd. Now we have ERJ145's to ORD. There was talk that mainline might return after the 5 year anniversary of MQ'
68 Post contains links and images realsim : I have re-done the table shown on the first post, and as I am unable to edit it anymore, I post it here. Now I have included one new color (purple) to
69 Alias1024 : In some cases it probably would. Albany is a great example of that, where Glens Falls is within the CSA but not the MSA. ALB is the obvious airport t
70 Cubsrule : The point you've impliedly made is important. There's no one perfect measure. In Nashville, neither Clarksville nor Bowling Green (Kentucky) fall wit
71 pvd757 : Which makes no differance since these are the MSA rankings, not airport passenger volume. PVD is a sizeable market and catchent area regardless of wh
72 pvd757 : No the airline leases ended on 7/1/10 and new ones are now in place.
73 TOMMY767 : I'm sorry but it's really not. We're talking about an operation 3 years ago where mainline dominated LGA routings: MSP, ATL, MCO, FLL, TPA, RDU, YYZ.
74 Post contains images SESGDL : Agreed, and downguages from MD-80s to CR7s are a greater than 50% decrease in capacity as well. This was a move to remain in the market and minimize
75 OA412 : Exactly. And we've even been told that flights such as LGA-ATL were profitable when dropped. Sure they were. No airline drops profitable routes, espe
76 MAH4546 : MSP-LGA was a failure. ATL-LGA was very successful out the gate and was profitable. American Airlines attempted - and was unsuccessful - to retire La
77 SESGDL : Okay, and some facts for you. First, who said I was referring to LGA-ATL? AA attempted MSP-LGA at 3x daily frequency with MD-80s, a total of 420 dail
78 MAH4546 : I was wrong with the 67, but only older models are 63 seats. New deliveries based out of New York have 65. No one has argued that it was all profitab
79 AABB777 : At least now the CR7s will be offering a First Class product. I've flown in the new CR7 F class and have to say it's a good product.
80 EricR : I highly doubt ATL-LGA was profitable. Considering AA was struggling to find profitable domestic routes, why would they cut a profitable ATL-LGA rout
81 MAH4546 : It was profitable. I know this for a fact. Believe it or not, profitable routes are indeed discontinued, notably when a large cutback in operations c
82 EricR : I am not trying to discount it, but trying to understand your point of view. The reason why is because you said the following: In my opinion, Miami i
83 goldenstate : I see this thrown around a lot. Has anybody done any quantitative analysis, at least something using publicly available data, to support it? Maybe it
84 BNAOWB : My apologies to you. I interpreted the maps in a way that obviously no one else did. I was looking at the airports served by AA only from LGA and not
85 MAH4546 : Because, in particular, the market between Miami and the Rockies tends to be strong-yielding, thanks to the popularity of skiing with locals in South
86 Post contains images izbtmnhd : Another example is Cleveland: Even with CAK, a majority of pax still use CLE that live in Akron and Canton. Currently 3.4 million people live along a
87 SESGDL : I would be totally surprised if AA started 1x daily LAX-ATL, let alone 2x daily. LAX-ATL is a huge business market with two airlines operating 15 dai
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