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AA ORD-BRU: How's It Doing, Will It Last?  
User currently offlineLHUSA From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 575 posts, RR: 2
Posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 10166 times:

Hi Everyone,

Now that UA has been on ORDBRU for several months and is seemingly successful, how is AA fairing on the route? As you know, AA no longer have the codeshare agreement in place with SN, so they've essentially lost all passengers connecting beyond BRU. I could see AA being more successful in catering to passegners with destination BRU, while UA would carry more of the connecting traffic, especially to Africa (I actually have a friend flying UA/SN ORD-NBO tomorrow) . Do you think the market is large enough for AA to remain? How are their loads in general?

38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlineAmerican 767 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4009 posts, RR: 12
Reply 1, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 9944 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Hi LHUSA,

A while ago I posted a thread about chances of survival or American in BRU since SN belongs to Star. The responses were American still had a chance of survival in BRU because Brussels is not only the capital of Europe, it is a popular destination for tourists with all it has to offer. So I am quite confident that the ORD-BRU flight will stay, it may never see the 777 again but it will at least stay with the 763 equipment. This flight has never been cut since 1989 when American started flying to Brussels.

Ben Soriano



Ben Soriano
User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Reply 2, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 9884 times:

Does AA codeshare with Jet Airways on BRU-ORD?

User currently offlineripcordd From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 1197 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 9869 times:

I dont know if Jet code shares with them or not but I do know AA codeshares with Jet from BRU to India....This was the reason the flight was upgraded to a 777....

User currently offlineLHUSA From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 575 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 9868 times:

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 2):
Does AA codeshare with Jet Airways on BRU-ORD?

I don't think so. But I was able to find an EY code on the flight. EY3094


User currently offlineUnited1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 6137 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 9815 times:

Quoting LHUSA (Reply 4):
Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 2):
Does AA codeshare with Jet Airways on BRU-ORD?

I don't think so. But I was able to find an EY code on the flight. EY3094

No Jet Airways....just AY5784, MA4041 and EY.



Semper Fi - PowerPoint makes us stupid.
User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Reply 6, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 9791 times:

Quoting ripcordd (Reply 3):
I dont know if Jet code shares with them or not but I do know AA codeshares with Jet from BRU to India....This was the reason the flight was upgraded to a 777....

Thanks. Does any one have numbers on India bound passengers on AA's ORD-BRU flights? ORD-BRU-BOM should attract a fair number of passengers as ORD-BOM does have significant O&D demand.


User currently offlineDFWEagle From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1076 posts, RR: 9
Reply 7, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 9768 times:

Quoting United1 (Reply 5):
No Jet Airways....just AY5784, MA4041 and EY.

It will also start carrying the BA code (BA1562) in the next week or so.



Ryan / HKG
User currently offlineordjoe From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 753 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 9749 times:

It is too bad it was downgaged to a 763, but it always seems to be good loads even in J. I think ORD-BRU is big enough to sustain AA and UA. Plus BRU has a lot of rail connections

User currently offlinerealsim From Spain, joined Apr 2010, 663 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 9647 times:

Speaking only about passengers and load factors, the latest data available is from June. From APR to JUN, AA carried 30.922 pax in the ORD-BRU-ORD segments, and UA 23.640.

ORD-BRU

JAN10, AA: 69,69% LF
FEB10, AA: 59,99% LF
MAR10, AA: 72,18% LF

APR10, AA: 69,35% LF
APR10, UA: 66,71% LF

MAY10, AA: 84,26% LF
MAY10, UA: 75,20% LF

JUN10, AA: 90,91 LF
JUN10, UA: 88,05 LF

BRU-ORD

JAN10, AA: 74,74% LF
FEB10, AA: 68,42% LF
MAR10, AA: 77,96% LF

APR10, AA: 85,31% LF
APR10, UA: 69,15% LF

MAY10, AA: 84,42% LF
MAY10, UA: 69,05% LF

JUN10, AA: 90,41 LF
JUN10, UA: 83,57 LF

I don't know about yield, but from the amount of passengers carried, it seems that UA hasn't stolen many from AA.

[Edited 2010-12-17 11:48:22]

User currently offlinerealsim From Spain, joined Apr 2010, 663 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 9629 times:

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 7):
It will also start carrying the BA code (BA1562) in the next week or so.

And also the IB code, from DEC20.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33289 posts, RR: 71
Reply 11, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 9474 times:

The flight continues to do fine and, as already pointed out, AA outperforms UA on the route in terms of load-factors, so clearly United has not been stealing passengers. SN Brussels was never the primary feeder on this route - Jet Airways has been. And, even so, the route has existed and performed strongly since 1989, well before any codeshares were in place on the Brussels side. And ATI with BA and IB will only make things stronger.

It's ridiculous that people automatically assume that UA enterting the route mean AA was doomed. Meanwhile, let's guess what airline has discontinued its seasonal Chicago-Rome service (hint: not American Airlines).



a.
User currently offlineLHUSA From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 575 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 9339 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):
It's ridiculous that people automatically assume that UA enterting the route mean AA was doomed.

No one here automatically assumed anything. We're discussing how AA has been impacted by UA starting an identical route.

According to MIDT data, for the strict OD ORDBRU and from worldwide point of sale, UA now holds 54.05% market share for the month of November, compared to 34.23% for AA. For the premium cabins, UA has 58.2% market share, AA 34.92%. Also, YTD AA has lost approxmately 30% share on ORDBRU. Again, these figures are without connecting traffic, so are only valid on ORDBRU.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33289 posts, RR: 71
Reply 13, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 9318 times:

Quoting LHUSA (Reply 12):
According to MIDT data, for the strict OD ORDBRU and from worldwide point of sale, UA now holds 54.05% market share for the month of November, compared to 34.23% for AA. For the premium cabins, UA has 58.2% market share, AA 34.92%. Also, YTD AA has lost approxmately 30% share on ORDBRU. Again, these figures are without connecting traffic, so are only valid on ORDBRU.

Marketshare is irrelevant without looking at market stimulation.

None of that, however, surprises me given UA's stronger Chicago presence and relationship with SN.

The fact remains that "How is AA surviving on ORD-BRU?" comes up often, and it gets old. AA is holding its own; just like it held its own in ORD-FCO, which United has now exited.



a.
User currently offlineLHUSA From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 575 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 9218 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 13):
Marketshare is irrelevant without looking at market stimulation.

Based on the same parameters for NOV 2010, bookings have increased on ORDBRU by 22.8% for all airlines. UA bookings are +106.9% and AA bookings are -16.3%

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 13):
The fact remains that "How is AA surviving on ORD-BRU?" comes up often, and it gets old. AA is holding its own; just like it held its own in ORD-FCO, which United has now exited.

So we should just assume that because AA was able to succeed in one market that the same holds true for another. FCO and BRU are very different markets and I personally think it's interesting to look at how airlines impact one another. If you think this topic is getting old then feel free no to partake. It's safe to say that UA is indeed having an impact on AA and that's what we're discussing here; the extent of it. Personally, I hope that AA remains in the market for many reasons and I'm confident that they will be able to.


User currently offlineLIPZ From Austria, joined Jun 2006, 1075 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 9175 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 13):
; just like it held its own in ORD-FCO, which United has now exited.

This is not confirmed yet.


User currently offlineBretonRLong From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 16 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 9117 times:

Why no Nonstop Africa service from ORD?

User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33289 posts, RR: 71
Reply 17, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 9084 times:

Quoting LHUSA (Reply 14):
So we should just assume that because AA was able to succeed in one market that the same holds true for another. FCO and BRU are very different markets and I personally think it's interesting to look at how airlines impact one another.

No. All I'm saying is that the topic gets old. That is all. Nothing more.

The market is big enough for both. Clearly UA is doing well enough; AA has been impacted; but they will both continue to hold their own.



a.
User currently offlineblueflyer From Northern Mariana Islands, joined Jan 2006, 4193 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days ago) and read 8843 times:
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Quoting LHUSA (Reply 12):
Again, these figures are without connecting traffic, so are only valid on ORDBRU.

I would expect UA to dominate even more on connecting traffic figures. I fly to/from BRU quite regularly and most Star Alliance carriers have a pretty healthy number of connections with SN, mostly but not exclusively for Africa (I've seen, and talked to, quite a few passengers connecting from regional cities in the UK to avoid LHR).

Another sign that UA has enough connecting traffic at BRU is they built their own connection/transfer desk rather than outsource the function to their handling agent or SN, as pretty much every single other airline does.

There was even a rumor UA was going to take over the BD lounge when it closed but I'm not going to hold my breath for this one, even though it would be a welcome move if only because the B pier SN lounge is getting quite crowded in the morning.



I've got $h*t to do
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33289 posts, RR: 71
Reply 19, posted (4 years 1 week 4 days ago) and read 8800 times:

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 18):
I would expect UA to dominate even more on connecting traffic figures.
AA averages a higher load-factor while UA garners a higher local traffic component, and UA offers a fair amount less capacity, which logically concludes that AA carries more connecting traffic.

[Edited 2010-12-17 16:04:15]


a.
User currently offlinephotoshooter From Belgium, joined Feb 2010, 456 posts, RR: 20
Reply 20, posted (4 years 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 7326 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD SUPPORT

Hi,

I'm very pleased to have some American carriers in BRU. It's becoming pretty easy now to fly direct to
North-America from BRU. American Airlines has some tempting ticket prices. For example : BRU-JFK 540 Dollars retun. BRU-ORD with AA is around 900/980 Dollars but when you look at the UA fares... OMG! I checked twice if I wasn't dreaming but they ask 1.800 dollars for BRU-ORD in Economy class.
I don't know if this is their way to ''steal'' passengers of AA...
They have changed the plane before from a B777 to a B767 but that's just because the B777 is better in
routes from and to LHR (which is 1 hour away from BRU).
So I think AA will stay at BRU, who knows when they are going to open another route.

Regards,

Photoshooter



'A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.' - Winston Churchill
User currently offlineslz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (4 years 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7242 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):
SN Brussels was never the primary feeder on this route - Jet Airways has been.

According to comments from SN, they provide 1/3rd of the pax on the flight to ORD, so those pax have simply swapped from AA to UA, leaving AA with 'just' the feed from Jet Airways, which is about to make a decision on joining either STAR alliance or Skyteam in the near future, so I'd expect AA to loose this feed too eventually...

As such, AA will be down to 'just' themselves and some minor connections from MA, BA, IB or AY, but just how many pax are those airlines realistically feeding through a non-hub of theirs a handful at best all together?

Quoting LHUSA (Reply 12):
According to MIDT data, for the strict OD ORD-BRU and from worldwide point of sale, UA now holds 54.05% market share for the month of November, compared to 34.23% for AA. For the premium cabins, UA has 58.2% market share, AA 34.92%. Also, YTD AA has lost approxmately 30% share on ORDBRU

These figures nicely match up with the comment from SN they are providing 1/3rd of the pax flow on the BRU-ORD flight and them increasing their destinations to Africa this summer seem to be the driving factor after UA's rapid raise in loadfactors as from JUN, as it coincided with SN opening 4 new long haul routes at once (OUA, LFW, ACC and COO).

Without homebased partner and SN planning further expansion on Africa, I'd expect AA will have though years ahead on the ORD route, that much is for sure.

Anyway, I think ORD will stay; the AA flight that is likely going to be pulled is JFK.

This flight regularly gets downgraded to 757 (like todayà so loads can't be high and by closing it, AA may try to prop up the loadfactor on its remaining ORD flight by consolidating all of their connecting traffic on a single flight.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33289 posts, RR: 71
Reply 22, posted (4 years 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7235 times:

Quoting slz396 (Reply 21):
Anyway, I think ORD will stay; the AA flight that is likely going to be pulled is JFK.

JFK-BRU is not going anywhere. If anything gets pulled, it would actually be ORD, but ORD-BRU isn't going anywhere, either.

Quoting slz396 (Reply 21):
This flight regularly gets downgraded to 757

The flight does not "regularly get downgraded." It is operated with a daily 757.



a.
User currently offlineslz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (4 years 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7180 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 22):
The flight does not "regularly get downgraded." It is operated with a daily 757.

Which is even worse then, especially as SN is looking at starting daily flights to JFK themselves in 2012, once they have antitrust immunity from the DOT.

As such AA is going to be exposed to quite some additional heath at BRU over the coming years and they are definitly the weakest airline on the route, flying already the smallest plane available to JFK with not really great loadfactors either if I may add...

i wouldn't be so sure JFK will not be pulled in 2 years, if I were you!


User currently offlinethediplomat From Ireland, joined Jun 2006, 382 posts, RR: 6
Reply 24, posted (4 years 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 7171 times:

Quoting American 767 (Reply 1):
it is a popular destination for tourists with all it has to offer

Brussels - A tourist destination - since when? Its the most boring city in Europe.

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbi...tent/mar2008/gb20080317_309146.htm


25 MAH4546 : I'm sure. JFK - not O'Hare - is AA's primary trans-Atlantic hub, and JFK-BRU is an important market where AA has a strong local marketshare, and it i
26 Post contains images photoshooter : Brussels - A tourist destination - since when? Its the most boring city in Europe. Lol, well it's the capital who's going to save your country if I'm
27 SESGDL : Much like people thinking AA starting DFW-ICN will lead to KE's discontinuation of the route. Airlines can coexist in markets, especially one as larg
28 crosswinds21 : But just because AA doesn't codeshare anymore doesn't mean that pax still can't connect from AA to SN and vice versa. As long as two airlines have el
29 Post contains links thediplomat : We have an excuse - this irish love to party - and no - its the germans that are giving us overpriced loans so the Irish banks can repay german loans
30 Conti764 : Nope, CO is using the 764 on EWR-BRU and has good loadfactors year round. Very rarely they downgrade it to a 762 or a 752, but 99% of the flights is
31 toobz : Really!!? I think it happens to be one of the most beautiful cities in Europe.. As far as ORD-BRU, it's big enough for both carriers. Each have a siz
32 MAH4546 : It's been a 752 everyday this week, including the flight bound to Brussels as we speak. Indeed, though, it goes back to a 764 tomorrow.
33 JasonCRH : Could you please explain this remark? How does UA "offer a fair amount less capacity"? UA has two 763 daily into BRU (one to IAD and one to ORD), whil
34 blueflyer : And it won't be a minute too soon. With the closures around Belgium, BRU is swamped with passengers from other countries trying to find last-minute t
35 klmcedric : I guess you were in a cynical mood when you choose your username...?
36 MAH4546 : Very simple. First of all, what does New York or Washington have to do with anything? We are talking about Chicago, in which case AA has a daily 225
37 Bralo20 : UACO has the following planes flying into BRU: - 1x B772: BRU-IAD (upgraded from B763 since the winterseason, scheduled year round from now) - 1x B76
38 JasonCRH : Thanks for clarifying. you really do NOT need to be so haughty, self righteous, or condescending in tone.
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