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Miami-Europe Comparison, 2001 Vs. 2011  
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33280 posts, RR: 71
Posted (4 years 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 27834 times:

There has been a lot of talk lately on the new "capacity" being thrown at MIA-Europe lately, so I did a little research to compare what Miami will have in the summer of 2011 to what it had right before 9/11 in the summer of 2011 and, furthermore, what it had during the middle of the decade to demonstrate how, despite all the new service being added lately, MIA's European capacity, while it will reach the highest levels in terms of frequency that it has ever seen, is really not all that up from where it was a decade ago.

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In the summer of 2001, MIA had 113 weekly flights to Europe. In the summer of 2011, that number isn't up that much - it will only have 128 weekly flights to Europe. And considering that in 2001 airlines were typically using larger capacity planes - the 747 and MD11 were particularly popular at MIA - capacity (which I admittedly did not calculate) probably isn't up that much either. This despite the fact that the Miami-Europe local market has grown quite a bit over the past decade, far more than the additional 20 weekly flights that it has added.


What the Miami-Europe market did see was a strong drop off in capacity following 9/11 and continuing until roughly 2007, reaching a low point in 2005. By that time, airlines like Austrian, KLM and Turkish abandoned the market and Air France and Iberia sliced frequency in half.

So, what has changed? The variety of destinations and variety of airlines.



In terms of destinations, MIA has doubled the number of cities reached non-stop since its low-point in 2005. It has non-stop service this summer to 16 cities in Europe, and among all it's European routes, only two services - Air Europa to Tenerife and Lufthansa to Dusseldorf - are seasonal (DUS maintains year-round service to MIA on Air Berlin).

MIA will be served by 14 European airlines this coming summer - second only to JFK in the United States; plus American and Delta provide trans-Atlantic service. That's a lot of competition, but even in 2001, the number of European carriers was 12, so MIA is only up by two carriers over one decade. And, furthermore, since that time, airlines have merged their trans-Atlantic operations. American, British Airways and Iberia are now one; as are Lufthansa, Swiss and TAP (although TAP is not part of the JBA), and Air France, Alitalia, Delta and KLM. So, while from a consumer's standpoint there are 16 carriers offering service to Europe, from the airline's standpoint, the merged alliances make it only 9, down 25% from 2001.

2010 was great for Miami-Europe; and 2011 is already amazing. And rumors are there are more to come, with Turkish all but sealed, Austrian thrice weekly to Vienna looking increasingly likely and Aeroflot having last week had it's application for twice-weekly Miami-Moscow service approved by Russian officials. But, looking at things historically, capacity and frequency are not up dramatically, and are certainly up far less than the growth the market has experienced in the latter part of the decade.

It's clear what we are seeing, rather, is airlines playing catch-up to fill in capacity that is otherwise flowing via other U.S. hubs. Though it also obvious that with all these carriers putting the capacity on all at once, even if the market size is there, things are going to be hyper-competitive between carriers.

[Edited 2010-12-20 18:40:40]


a.
45 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinemiaintl From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 1054 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (4 years 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 27854 times:

Looks like MIA is going back to its Pre-9/11 days.  

User currently offlineEddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7633 posts, RR: 42
Reply 2, posted (4 years 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 27828 times:

Thanks Mark. It is very interesting.

Who will be doing MIA-ORY next year?



Next flights: MEX-GRU (AM 77E), GRU-GIG (JJ A320), SDU-CGH (G3 73H), GRU-MEX (JJ A332).
User currently offlineplaneguy727 From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 1257 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (4 years 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 27741 times:

Not to be picky, but you've got Arkefly in your chart twice. With only two flights it does not change much.


I want to live in an old and converted 727...
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33280 posts, RR: 71
Reply 4, posted (4 years 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 27721 times:

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 2):
Thanks Mark. It is very interesting.

Who will be doing MIA-ORY next year?

Corsairfly launched Miami-Orly last year.

Quoting planeguy727 (Reply 3):
Not to be picky, but you've got Arkefly in your chart twice. With only two flights it does not change much.

Thanks, fixed that.



a.
User currently offlinemiaintl From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 1054 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (4 years 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 27686 times:

I wonder how many of these routes would actually survive to 2013? If OS launches than LH's MUC service would have to be sacrificed or axed, same goes for UX in return for the new TP service. Still a bit doubtfull about SU, but only time will tell. Plus does anyone know when BA and IB move to concourse A?

User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 26005 posts, RR: 22
Reply 6, posted (4 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 27561 times:

For passengers it certainly adds competition. For example, fares on LH, LX and OS in the same O&D markets are often very different, as they were before LH had any involvement with LX or OS. The same applies with AF and KL.

[Edited 2010-12-21 09:09:11 by SA7700]

User currently offlinewashingtonian From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (4 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 27519 times:

Billions have been invested in the new terminals at MIA; I am glad that international flights are being added. The new terminals will serve the airport well for decades.

User currently offline797 From Venezuela, joined Aug 2005, 1906 posts, RR: 27
Reply 8, posted (4 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 27491 times:

Very interesting thread, Mark.

Thanks for sharing.

I wonder how the Aeroflot vs. Transaero flights will play out once both airlines fly simultaneously. It should be quite interesting, having Aeroflot as a SkyTeam member...

797



Flying isn't dangerous. Crashing is what's dangerous!
User currently offlineflymia From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 7279 posts, RR: 6
Reply 9, posted (4 years 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 27475 times:

Quoting miaintl (Reply 5):
If OS launches than LH's MUC service would have to be sacrificed or axed, same goes for UX in return for the new TP service.

That makes absolutely no sense at all.

There is such thing as O/D you know. Also MIA offers connections too.

[Edited 2010-12-21 09:22:30 by SA7700]


"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
User currently offlinemiaintl From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 1054 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 27438 times:

I'm curious to learn more about the SU developments, i too wonder how the Transaero vs Aeroflot thing will play out. But i still cant figure out why SU can never fly daily to any of its North american destinations, apart from NYC. I also noticed that BA changed its MIA schedule for next summer. Its first daily flight would depart LHR at 11:30 rather than the usual 9:30.

[Edited 2010-12-20 20:07:01]

User currently offlineFutureUScapt From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 765 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (4 years 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 27383 times:

Great work, Mark.

Let me add a precise number to something you have alluded to here:

Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
In the summer of 2001, MIA had 113 weekly flights to Europe. In the summer of 2011, that number isn't up that much - it will only have 128 weekly flights to Europe. And considering that in 2001 airlines were typically using larger capacity planes - the 747 and MD11 were particularly popular at MIA - capacity (which I admittedly did not calculate) probably isn't up that much either. This despite the fact that the Miami-Europe local market has grown quite a bit over the past decade, far more than the additional 20 weekly flights that it has added.

Which is that the capacity (in terms of seats/week) is only up 7.1% from between July 2011 and July 2001. My data is based on 123 weekly flights in 2011 vs 111 weekly flight in 2001, so even though our numbers don't match up completely there, the underlying point remains the same, which is that capacity is not significantly up over the ten year period.

One more interesting fact: MIA-Europe capacity is up 37% when using 2005 as the base year, so it does indeed show how steep the sharp post-9/11 drop off was that Mark mentions.


As much as I'd like to believe that, I'm a bit skeptical. What we see here in MIA is, in some respects, a microcosm of the problems that have plagued the industry for years. Instead of being discipline, every airline rushes to add capacity to the places that, based on past data, seem to demand more seats. On an independent basis this comes across as a great idea, but collectively, it often over-saturates the market and leads to an eventual decline/alignment with supply and demand. We saw it in China in 2007, we're seeing it in US-AK now, etc.

YOY capacity will be up 17%, which while not unsustainable, is a significant amount of capacity for any market to absorb. I do believe that most of the capacity is warranted, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are 1-2 failures amidst the vast majority of successes in this case.

[Edited 2010-12-20 20:33:28]

[Edited 2010-12-21 09:25:22 by SA7700]

User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 3029 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 27299 times:

I think it is important to look at the fact that any new airline announcement may have negative effects on existing carriers, which may lead to withdrawals. Unless the demand is stimulated, there is always that possiblity happenning. Thats why every new announcement, made at any airport, needs to be looked at as to how that will effect existing carriers, including yields and route demand.

User currently offlinemiaintl From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 1054 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (4 years 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 27277 times:

Quoting IndianicWorld (Reply 15):

Exactly!! I would like to see all these routes suceed, but i do see some leaving or at least reducing their schedule or changing equipment.

[Edited 2010-12-20 21:09:27]

User currently offlinenycdave From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 547 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (4 years 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 27055 times:

Hopefully it's not off-topic, but can anyone here speak to whether MIA "seasonal" services to Europe tend to be on in the Summer, or in the Winter?

A bit curious, because almost all of my European friends are constantly under the impression that Miami is a good place to go for a summer vacation... seemingly unaware that that's pretty much the LAST time you'd want to be down in the tropics, what with the incredible heat, humidity, and storms! Sort of interested as to whether that's widespread enough that it's reflected in capacity/bookings, or whether, as domestically, MIA is more of a winter destination for vacationers.


User currently offlinestylo777 From Germany, joined Feb 2006, 3023 posts, RR: 11
Reply 15, posted (4 years 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 27011 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
And rumors are there are more to come, with Turkish all but sealed,

TK CEO mentioned in his last statement that they want to expand over the Atlantic drastically. MIA being a very popular destination and has seen some service pre 9/11 this is just a matter of time now. I know, they are continous talks and I'm pretty sure it's not too far away to see this flight reinstate.
but for the moment IAD has to prove its substantial position in the network and LAX is also coming up in March.

can the A330-200 do IST-MIA nonstop both ways? in my eyes a perfect aircraft for such an O&D market.

Quoting miaintl (Reply 5):
If OS launches than LH's MUC service would have to be sacrificed or axed

Germany - Miami is a strong O&D therefore this is not a valid argument. LH can easily fill all their Germany-Miami flights with local as well as connection passengers. being one airline group it also enables them to offer the most flexibility to the customers with the possibility to create several O&Ds via FRA, MUC and DUS for the same price. it is just an advantage to take LX via ZRH and OS via VIE to the boat and create a strong network, despite the fact that all hubs are located closely together.

to even get a bigger picture how strong the local Germany - Florida market is just have a look at the numbers and the success of the FRA-MCO flight. most people doubted the success, however, the flight proved that it can exist with all the MIA flights.


User currently offlineSevernaya From Russia, joined Jan 2009, 1433 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (4 years 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 26991 times:

Quoting miaintl (Reply 13):
But i still cant figure out why SU can never fly daily to any of its North american destinations, apart from NYC.

Mostly it's due to the lack of aircraft & yield at this moment.



Всяк глядит, да не всяк видит.
User currently offlinedowntown273 From Spain, joined Aug 2005, 322 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (4 years 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 26956 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
I did a little research

Awesome job, thanks!

As far as Spain is concerned, it's nice to see the increased competition with UX now on the game.

For next summer, it seems there will be 26x weekly service to MAD (21x by IB/AA, 5x by UX) + IB's BCN service.

If DL's MIA-LHR proves successful, I wouldn't be surprised if DL came up with MIA-BCN or MIA-AGP on a B752!

Side note: Seems like MIA airport is interested in having new destinations in Spain too. I saw this on a Spanish newspaper about talks between MIA and BIO; link only in Spanish (http://www.deia.com/2010/11/06/bizkaia/miami-firma-el-lunes-un-convenio-en-bilbao-para-impulsar-una-ruta-aerea)


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33280 posts, RR: 71
Reply 18, posted (4 years 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 26926 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 8):
For passengers it certainly adds competition. For example, fares on LH, LX and OS in the same O&D markets are often very different, as they were before LH had any involvement with LX or OS. The same applies with AF and KL.

True, but they still pool together profits and planning, and have ATI.

Quoting FutureUScapt (Reply 14):
YOY capacity will be up 17%, which while not unsustainable, is a significant amount of capacity for any market to absorb. I do believe that most of the capacity is warranted, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are 1-2 failures amidst the vast majority of successes in this case.

I would agree with you if we didn't have ATI and the like. The OW, Star and ST airlines are all alligned, and are putting this capacity into MIA as if they were each one. Three of the other carriers - Corsair, Arke and Transaero - live and die on vacation packages. They each have low costs that make it easy to profit at low-fares, as long as the plane can fill.

The one reason I see the services lasting is because Miami is such an important market for any European carrier wanting to develop a trans-Atlantic network. European airlines rely primarily on European-originating passengers, and Miami is the second largest O&D point in the U.S. for European passengers.

I entirely agree that things are not going to be easy for the next 1-2 years, but, strategically for long-term success, I believe the current variety of airlines will try very hard to stick it out, even if it involves losses.

Quoting nycdave (Reply 17):
Hopefully it's not off-topic, but can anyone here speak to whether MIA "seasonal" services to Europe tend to be on in the Summer, or in the Winter?

Miami-Europe double peaks in both the winter and summer. The busiest months are February/March and July/August. The reason being is that tourist traffic peaks in winter, but VFR traffic peaks in summer. Airlines love it, because it allows airlines to keep capacity to Miami fairly constant year-round.

Miami used to be a very winter-heavy market, but since the early 1990s, only New York City has welcomed more European immigrants than Miami has, which has created this double-peak.

The southern markets tend to be busier in the summer; the nourthern markets tend to be busier during the winter. Spain and Russia, especially, peak during the summer months, but Spain and Russia, along with Italy, have the biggest VFR component of the Miami-Europe markets.

Quoting stylo777 (Reply 18):
can the A330-200 do IST-MIA nonstop both ways? in my eyes a perfect aircraft for such an O&D market.

Yes, absolutely a 332 can do it.



a.
User currently offlinerealsim From Spain, joined Apr 2010, 663 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (4 years 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 26853 times:

Quoting downtown273 (Reply 20):
If DL's MIA-LHR proves successful, I wouldn't be surprised if DL came up with MIA-BCN or MIA-AGP on a B752!

I don't think any MIA-Europe route can be done with a 752.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33280 posts, RR: 71
Reply 20, posted (4 years 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 26818 times:

Quoting realsim (Reply 22):
Quoting downtown273 (Reply 20):
If DL's MIA-LHR proves successful, I wouldn't be surprised if DL came up with MIA-BCN or MIA-AGP on a B752!

I don't think any MIA-Europe route can be done with a 752.

Mainland Europe and the British Isles, 100% correct.

But a 757 can reach the Azores, the Canaries and Iceland with ease.

Too bad, though, because a 752 would be great from Miami to secondary markets in the UK and Spain.



a.
User currently offlinedowntown273 From Spain, joined Aug 2005, 322 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (4 years 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 26809 times:

Quoting realsim (Reply 22):
I don't think any MIA-Europe route can be done with a 752.

You're right. NW/DL's longest 757 routes are:

DTW-FRA: 4161mi / 3616nm
CVG-AMS: 4142mi / 3599nm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 23):
Too bad, though, because a 752 would be great from Miami to secondary markets in the UK and Spain.

I guess the A332 would have too much capacity?


User currently offlinenycdave From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 547 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (4 years 1 day ago) and read 26624 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 21):
Miami-Europe double peaks in both the winter and summer. The busiest months are February/March and July/August. The reason being is that tourist traffic peaks in winter, but VFR traffic peaks in summer. Airlines love it, because it allows airlines to keep capacity to Miami fairly constant year-round.

Good... now THAT makes sense to me. (Plus, it means I can continue to tell my friends they're idiots for wanting to vacation there in summer  )


User currently offline797 From Venezuela, joined Aug 2005, 1906 posts, RR: 27
Reply 23, posted (4 years 23 hours ago) and read 26439 times:

Quoting stylo777 (Reply 18):
can the A330-200 do IST-MIA nonstop both ways? in my eyes a perfect aircraft for such an O&D market.

During an interview I did to Turkish's CEO (Temel Kotil) he told me the MIA route will be served with one of the 12 new B77-300ERs.

I see this 'addition' to capacity with great eyes. Voices weren't so good toward the millions of dollars that are being spent in the new MIA terminals. An increase of airlines and passengers will most definitely calm this down.



Flying isn't dangerous. Crashing is what's dangerous!
User currently offlinemiaintl From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 1054 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (4 years 20 hours ago) and read 25316 times:

Quoting stylo777 (Reply 18):

A B777-300 to Miami?!!!!? Is there that much demand between IST and MIA?


25 mogandoCI : I guess LatinAmerica-MIA-MAD is the equivalent homecoming route like OZ-XYZ-LHR
26 pylon101 : Turkish goes global. Adds are all around. Very good fares via IST. It may be a reason.
27 realsim : I think that the transit from Latin America to MAD via MIA made more sense in the past. In the recent years, a lot of new direct connections between
28 miaintl : When did you speak to TK's CEO? Did he somehow hint that MIA will be the next US destination? He does seem very ambitious by sending a 777 over here
29 EricR : But the fact of the matter is that they have added a lot of capacity. From 2005 to 2010, they've added 54% more flights......and the worldwide econom
30 miaintl : Im sure TP will do fine, however im not sure about KL.
31 MAH4546 : He is looking at capacity, not frequency. Airlines are using smaller and smaller capacity planes these days. And the Miami-Europe market, weak econom
32 miaintl : I am not sure about KL because the flight is badly timed for connections to Asia and Africa. It is only good for connections to Northern Europe like
33 MAH4546 : Miami is strong to those markets, the yield tends to be weaker, but its still a good market from Miami. You also need to double check what it connect
34 realsim : If TP pretends to fill their cabin mainly with connections from Spain and Italy, I think it will be difficult for them to succeed. AA/IB will offer 3
35 VV701 : In 2009 the LHR-MIA-LHR routing was virtually non seasonal but with a small bias to the winter. The three peak months for passenger numbers were Marc
36 VV701 : As with the 2009 seasonal passenger numbers on the LHR-MIA-LHR route - see Reply 35 - the annual figures for LON-MIA-LON (LGW had scheduled flights to
37 GolfBravoRomeo : Thanks for putting together the numbers. Just anecdotally, how was the market pre hurricane Andrew?
38 flymia : I do not have numbers on that. But Hurricane Andrew was in 1992. MIA was in a strange place in the late 80s early 90s with Pan Am and Eastern closing
39 miaintl : Does anyone know when AF and LH began service to MIA? I know that IB and BA came in the 1970's and AZ in the late 80's.
40 MAH4546 : Pretty sure Lufthansa was 1978/79. Alitalia was 1990. Air France has been flying to Miami since the early 1960s; but Paris flights didn't launch unti
41 797 : Remember IST is pretty much a mega hub, and TK intends to use it accordingly. So I would see these flights from MIA to IST as a good connecting port
42 Post contains images miaintl : So i guess this means that MIA will be launched before IAH, BOS, DTW and SEA then.
43 rutankrd : If the the o/p went back a further two decades they would have found Miami being connected to Manchester, Prestwick and Gatwick by Laker and Air flori
44 MAH4546 : I'm hearing October/November 2011. It's not really much of a "problem." The markets co-exist very well, and the popularity of Orlando with British to
45 miaintl : Just looked at the LH schedule for next winter and saw that MIA-MUC will be going daily. Im sure this is LH responding to all this new competition com
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