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China To Scotland Direct?  
User currently offlineAlasdair1982 From UK - Scotland, joined Mar 2008, 468 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 4419 times:

Just been reading about the various trade deals agreed today between the UK and China, with some of them benefiting Scotland, and it made me wonder if direct flights between China and EDI or GLA is in the pipeline?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-12151388

Remember this?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/7610139.stm

10 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinekl911 From Czech Republic, joined Jul 2003, 5300 posts, RR: 15
Reply 1, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 4350 times:

Are you kidding? I think Sudan - Monaco is 1000000x more likely then China - Scotland.   Cargo might work though.

User currently offlinejoost From Netherlands, joined Apr 2005, 3185 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 4010 times:

I foresee that by 2020, a connection to PEK or PVG will be as common as a connection to NYC or DXB is now. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see EDI or GLA connected to a Chinese hub. Although INV is very unlikely IMO.

User currently offlineArgonaut From UK - Scotland, joined Dec 2004, 422 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 3648 times:

Quoting kl911 (Reply 1):
Are you kidding?

It's easy to be disparaging. The question wasn't as stupid as you suggest, given the size of the trade deal and the nature of what it involves for Scotland, of which it appears you're probably not fully aware. Never underestimate the oil business.

Nevertheless, I really can't believe there's any serious chance of direct China-Scotland services, at least not for a very long while. If this news means anything at all, it might give EK an additional reason to consider offering DXB-EDI, as EDI is much the more obvious terminus than GLA in this case. Otherwise most traffic will continue to connect in LHR, AMS, etc.

rj



'the rank is but the guinea stamp'
User currently offlinekl911 From Czech Republic, joined Jul 2003, 5300 posts, RR: 15
Reply 4, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 3638 times:

Quoting Argonaut (Reply 3):
Never underestimate the oil business.

I didn't, that's why i said cargo could work, if only for the oilfields, offshore platform parts. Not the big parts ofcourse which would go by ship. But for pax flights i just dont see it happen. If oil is the magic word we will see ABZ-IAH before GLA-China. If the runway gets extended ofcourse. Any news on that btw?


User currently offlineskipness1E From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2007, 3317 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 3463 times:

Quoting joost (Reply 2):
I foresee that by 2020, a connection to PEK or PVG will be as common as a connection to NYC or DXB is now. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see EDI or GLA connected to a Chinese hub. Although INV is very unlikely IMO.

In the long run perhaps, we're a generation away from that yet. Trade would need to have utterly phenomenal growth for direct to become the better option over one stop via an established hub.


User currently offlineArgonaut From UK - Scotland, joined Dec 2004, 422 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 3375 times:

Quoting kl911 (Reply 4):
If oil is the magic word we will see ABZ-IAH before GLA-China. If the runway gets extended ofcourse

In fact, it's largely about energy expertise and technology-transfer, as well as Chinese investment, and less about equipment or machinery. Thus, the accent will be very much on personal travel rather than air freight. It also has less to do with Aberdeen than with the refineries in central Scotland, which are on the same side of Edinburgh as the airport and conveniently near it. That's why EDI is far more relevant than GLA (if you're located in the central industrial region of the country, it's far easier to fly from EDI and transfer somewhere like AMS than to drive to the other side of Glasgow to catch a direct flight).

As for ABZ-IAH: No doubt, people will keep asking that question...AFAIK anyone who wants to avoid LHR still has to change to CO in GLA (1x daily) or EDI (2x daily), with a second transfer in EWR. Not fun. As you point out, there's an inevitable capacity restriction, given the runway length. Extension? I am not sitting on the edge of my seat...

rj



'the rank is but the guinea stamp'
User currently offlineLondonCity From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2008, 1523 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 3339 times:

Difficult to see direct flights being profitable when there are so many indirect options available (and possibly lower prices) via LHR, CDG, AMS, DXB and so on.

User currently offlineAirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2936 times:

Quoting kl911 (Reply 1):
Are you kidding? I think Sudan - Monaco is 1000000x more likely then China - Scotland

Why should he be kidding, and it was a perfectly legitimate question? Considering the circumstance, can you thus expain why you feel it to be so foolish? I do assume you know the details of the deal in order to make that 'judgement', right?


User currently offlineArgonaut From UK - Scotland, joined Dec 2004, 422 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2803 times:

Quoting AirNZ (Reply 8):
Why should he be kidding, and it was a perfectly legitimate question? Considering the circumstance, can you thus expain why you feel it to be so foolish? I do assume you know the details of the deal in order to make that 'judgement', right?

  

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 5):
Trade would need to have utterly phenomenal growth for direct to become the better option over one stop via an established hub.

No question about that. Mind you, a gradual increase in Scots-Chinese economic links over the next few years might help to encourage the emergence of one or two new hub options (hence my mention of EDI-DXB), thereby benefiting Scotland's air links as a whole. Pure amateur speculation, of course (this is a.net, after all!), since economic forecasting is not exactly my bailiwick...

rj



'the rank is but the guinea stamp'
User currently offlineAlasdair1982 From UK - Scotland, joined Mar 2008, 468 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 2711 times:

Perhaps there may not be enough demand from trade and tourism to justify a direct link. But instead, with the likes of the EK service to/from GLA, upgrading it to an aircraft fitted with lie flat/angled 'lie flat' seats in J is an option for business travel within the oil industry if this deal securing the future of Grangemouth is as important as it seems if EK want to capture J customers from LHR and AMS etc?

[Edited 2011-01-12 11:43:37]

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