Article claims F9 is a prime candidate for takeover this year by a larger carrier.
Any predictions on the outcome? Or is this speculative hogwash?
Speculative hogwash. AS was on the same list at times last year. Just something to write about on a relatively slow news day. I agree F9 is a very small carrier, but like above, why would anybody jump into the three-ring circus that is DEN right now?
GSPSPOT From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 2749 posts, RR: 2 Reply 10, posted (2 years 4 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 18110 times:
I just wish F9 had re-branded with a fresh, new image after Republic combined them with Midwest. Would be sad to see the organization be gobbled up by another airline. The airline landscape is starting resemble the major department store landscape - outside the high-end stores like Nieman's & Saks, etc, there's really just Dillards & Macy's left. Kinda scary.
Dl767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0 Reply 11, posted (2 years 4 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 18012 times:
DL and UA wont happen. Both still busy with merger. WN I'm sure would LOVE that big operation out of DEN just to mess with UA. AA isn't in the financial position. US.... I guess it could work but a DEN hub so close to PHX and LAS seems a bit redundant. Alaska is an interesting one. I think they're perfectly happy where they are now but it would be an interesting match of airlines bringing Alaska out further into the US. I've always thought B6 would make for such a smooth merger. Routes compliment eachother as well as aircraft and minimum change to the F9 fleet to match that of B6. But does B6 want to expand?
ItalianFlyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 948 posts, RR: 2 Reply 12, posted (2 years 4 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 17948 times:
IMHO it would be insane for AA to make a play for anyone at this point, especially F9. The don't have a dog in the DEN fight and the MKE/ORD overlap is a no-brainer. US would be interesting...it would give them the midcon presence they lack and they have a strong relationship with RAH vis a vis USEx....but where would the cash come from and why jump into the DEN brawl (esp when you are getting clobbered in your own home market by WN)? B6,NK or VX are maybes...assuming they want to get their hands on airframes NOW (which is unlikely) and have little to no interest in keeping the route structure intact.
Looking at the list of other companies that are set to 'disappear', I have to say the metrics are questionable. Borders and Sara Lee have been on a deathwatch for years, yet they are still around. Office Depot is not the biggest of the big office box stores...but they do quite well in small markets where Staples is not a player. Makes good fodder for speculation...but I do not see his logic based on hard evidence.
slcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 2456 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (2 years 4 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 17845 times:
I don't understand who they think would want Frontier? Who would want the Denver Hub, certainly not a legacy carrier
AA-MKE is worth nothing with ORD, DEN is too low fare and competitive for their high costs. LAX seems to be AAs new Western focus
UA- already has a major DEN hub and flies those routes already all this would do is make WN larger and give them more room to grow with more gates and alot of the FF base would shift to WN i bet. MKE offers nothing since ORD is so close. Still finishing the CO merger
DL-Hub in SLC flys almost all these same routes and then alot more. Why leave a fortress hub that is extremely profitable consistently to a 3 way war where WN has huge goals. A large chunk of the FF base of F9 would probably move over to WN when delta took over. Just finishing the NW merger.
WN-Is already so large in DEN and seems to be doing great on their own stealing customers from UA and F9. MKE would become a major station if merged but MDW is so close.
Spirit-they have nothing to loose by merging with Frontier but the airlines are pretty different
JetBlue-I guess this is a possibility but LGB is being expanded. MKE would provide some midwest traffic. DEN would be a real connection hub. This would make JetBlue a pretty large player and serve more of the country. Still DEN is competitive and a tough market. Jetblue dosn't even fly DEN-LGB right now that how competitive and tough a market it is. We don't know how much WN is going to reduce MKE if at all.
slcdeltarumd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 2456 posts, RR: 0 Reply 15, posted (2 years 4 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 17773 times:
Forgot about US
US-Sure DEN is a much better location geographically than PHX for connections. Partner UA is already there though why fight your brother? MKE might be a nice addition for them. The Frontier fleet is pretty compatible.
ScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6364 posts, RR: 34 Reply 18, posted (2 years 4 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 17306 times:
Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 8): UA- No. F9 is all overlap with DEN and ORD
Actually, I think United is a likely suitor once the merger with Continental is completed -- but only if they want to maintain a hub in Denver over the long term. The MKE operation is frankly immaterial. DEN won't work as a three-hub city, and purchasing Frontier would be a defensive play for United if Frontier continues to move into their thinner markets from DEN.
Frontier is a poor fit for Delta since it offers them nothing which they don't already have in SLC. It doesn't add much to the AA network either, since most of those traffic flows work over ORD and DEN, and it's not clear that they want to be in a three-way fight for markets like BIL, BZN, GJT, etc. For US Airways, buying a DEN hub would be like buying another PHX but with more competition.
Frontier isn't really a good fit for any of the network carriers, to be honest. The dense markets at DEN are priced at WN fare levels, while most thin markets in the Mountain Time Zone probably can't support three network carriers. I don't think that B6 really wants to get involved in the three-way battle at DEN, either.
JA From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 513 posts, RR: 1 Reply 19, posted (2 years 4 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 17166 times:
I can see it, but not without AA. There is a rumor about Republic and AA, but I will believe it when I see it. However, if Republic can work with AA on American Eagle, then Frontier could fly aircraft bigger than 50 seats for AA under its own brand. Before the screaming begins, B6 is doing exactly that RIGHT NOW.
GARUDAROD From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 1477 posts, RR: 1 Reply 20, posted (2 years 4 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 17167 times:
Since we are throwing out speculation partners, what about Virgin America? Solves a problem getting more planes soon,
gives them a Mid-America Hub and has a similar corporate culture. I would think for 200 million, SRB et al would jump at it.
exFATboy From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 2974 posts, RR: 9 Reply 23, posted (2 years 4 months 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 16810 times:
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 17): I'm sure all of these businesses are in very tight and competitive market segments with strong competition - but all of them disappear in 2011 - no way.
Actually, most of that list falls somewhere between "duh" (DollarThrifty has a tentative buyout agreement already, although Antitrust Division may shoot it down) and "probable" - we don't need three national office supply chains, Borders Books has been dead-man-walking for over a year now and is deferring vendor payments, I actually thought Gateway was gone already.
I'm not willing to call a Frontier purchase "speculative hogwash", but it's pretty close. Here's my take on the players - I'm presuming the "regional" parts of RAH would be sold off or spun off into a separate company:
UA - would likely fail antitrust review over DEN concentration, but pulling down F9's DEN operations to get it approved just opens opportunities for WN. MKE overlaps the ORD hub, and again drawdown would just open door for WN. Also very important that UA-CO not take their eye off the integration ball right now.
WN - DEN market concentration also an issue. Also has a merger to concentrate on, would basically have to replace the entire F9 fleet, unable to have the RAH regional subsidiaries operate what they do now for F9 without a major labour issue. FL is a good fit in that it quickly opens doors for WN (ATL, international, smaller plane type, etc.), F9 wouldn't really do anything for WN that they can't accomplish themselves.
AA - No interest in MKE, and while DEN would beef them up on the West Coast, where they're weak, not sure if they have an appetite for the ongoing Battle of Denver right now, especially since it's unlikely their pilots would go for F9 operating as a separate subsidiary and if Frontier's labour costs escalated to anything approaching AA levels, the operation would likely be unsustainable. If AA wants an acquisition to beef up the West Coast, they'd be better off trying to buy Alaska or getting US to jump alliances.
DL - as slcdeltarumd11 pointed out, DEN offers DL nothing that they don't already have in SLC, and they're concentrating on expanding at LAX right now. And like AA, if DL wanted further West Coast expansion a merger with Alaska (or making their relationship with Alaska exclusive) would make more sense.
US - hasn't even finished the "East-West" integration, doesn't need another West Coast hub. The Star overlap with UA at DEN doesn't concern me, though...I still believe that eventually US will wind up leaving Star.
Spirit - half Frontier's size, concentrating on Latin America and Caribbean, "ULCC" format not compatible with Frontier's brand. Privately held, so harder (but not impossible) to finance.
Virgin America - difficult to finance an acquisition, especially since Alaska files a "they're not really American" motion every time they have any financing activities. And I'm still not convinced of VX's long-term viability.
Which brings us to JetBlue. On first glance, B6 looks like the most likely acquirer - would allow quick expansion into the Midwest, brands are largely compatible, future growth at LGB is limited. But on close observation, I'm not so sure - while JetBlue offers substantial connecting opportunities through the focus cities, DEN would be a true "hub", is that a market they really want to get into? Especially in a city where two other combatants operate hubs/focus cities as well? There's also the issue of the smaller planes provided by RAH's regional operations - right now JetBlue doesn't have relationships with regional affiliates, and adding them could lead to labour issues (although I do think the JetBlue pilots would accept a regional affiliation at LGB that would let them use the commuter slots). Finally, JetBlue has been doing really well concentrating on Latin American and Caribbean expansion, and there's still lots of opportunity there.
So when all is said and done, I'm not convinced we'll see Frontier get snapped up this year. I think it's possible that F9 will enter into some sort of partnership with JetBlue, to replace the limited AirTran alliance. I know the conventional wisdom is that "the market" demands further airline consolidation, but it isn't just a matter of buying someone, anyone, just for the sake of merging. If anything, Alaska is a more tempting acquisition target than Frontier.
mariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 22724 posts, RR: 88 Reply 24, posted (2 years 4 months 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 16729 times:
Quoting OzarkD9S (Thread starter): Article claims F9 is a prime candidate for takeover this year by a larger carrier.
I'm confused as to how it would happen. There are no "Frontier" shares available to be bought.
Frontier is constituted with 1000 shares, all of them owned by RAH. To buy Frontier would mean buying RAH, but that would be very complicated.
I suppose it is possible that if someone offered BB enough money he would try and hive Frontier off, but then I have no idea what would happen to Chatauqua or Republic Airways - or Shuttle America.
And I have no idea how they would divvy up the Frontier routes and the routes flown by Republic and Chatauqua, and Republic would retain ownership of a big bunch of the Frontier fleet - E190's, E170's and the smaller E-jets.
25 exFATboy: Buying RAH wouldn't be that complicated - it's a publicly-held corporation and a purchaser would buy them just as they would any other company. Inste
26 mariner: Have fun sorting out the contract flying. I'm not sure why anyone would buy a declining business model - that contract flying. It's possible, of cour
27 n7371f: I think you just answered the question(s) about the legitimacy of the article and the author(s).
28 jeffrey1970: They are concentrating on their takeover of Airtran. Plus, Frontiers' Airbuses don't fit WN's model anyway.
29 MCO2BRS: If there is any substance to this rumour, based on a route/fleet match up, I would think B6 and/or VX be best suited for F9. Also, I have no idea what
30 slcdeltarumd11: Virgin America would be an interesting merger. It has its pluses but i think the virgin america model could never work for frontier. B6 i think is a b
31 Goblin211: Frankly, i see no evidence F9 needs to merge w/ anyone right now. I agree w/ it being ridiculous but IF it happens B6 all the way!
32 KHPN: i think B6 could be fantastic if done right.. IMO if they kept the a320s and worked out the addition of the a319s, then DEN would be a great focus ci
33 motech722: Yes, let's all be concerned about this article. Below are two other articels from the same authoer, Douglas A. McIntyre. In 2009, it was speculated th
34 GSPSPOT: If ONLY Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac could just go away... OT I know, but sooo at the center of the real estate bust that precipitated the economic ma
35 will777: Why would an airline have to keep the Denver operations of Frontier? Couldn't and airline purchase Frontier, take all of their planes, and implement t
36 JA: Don't laugh too hard at the author. A lot of those companies are mere shells of themselves. Blockbuster has a CCC credit rating (i.e. zombie). Sometim
37 spchamp1: IF B6 were to acquire F9 it would be strictly for the A/C, IMO. I dont think B6 goes in and tries to really compete with UA and WN in DEN. I think the
38 Blueman87: i Say B6 just to think B6 will Expand
39 rfields5421: I liked how he said Office Depot was smaller than Office Max and Stables - a poor third place. However, everything else I find says Office Depot is #2
40 rj777: I'd like to draw everyone's attention to this awesome F9 commercial: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHBpkeqr_So BTW, I love Foxy's voice.
41 Stitch: AS' expansion eastward is more "cherry-picking" routes dominated by their current and former partners out of SEA where they can skim off their own fr
42 swa4life: Don't assume that just because Southwest would be underway with Airtran that they would not entertain having another go at F9 as well. Of all candidat
43 FL787: Not even close to being true. The F9 battle between RAH and WN occurred in the summer of 2009. FL and WN (or Fornaro and Kelly to be specific) starte
44 loggat: I imagine that a company like Virgin America would love to have Southwest purchase Frontier (again, unlikely because there is no "Frontier" to buy). T
45 crjflyer35: Yeah, the 300 days of sunshine a year compared to DEN and better overall temps make Denver a MUCH better choice for hubs....Do blizzards help or hurt
46 frmrCapCadet: Alaska, Frontier, and Southwest (and before that ATA) are four profitable niche airlines. Each has differing business plans which define their niche.
47 Blueman87: It would be good fgor B6 to buy F9 they would gain some midwest and more west coast cities and as state a true west coast hub
48 N623JB: I agree. Taking over F9 would give an advantage to B6 by providing them with more cities on the map, but also more Airbus/Embraer planes. I was also
49 intheair10: As good as it sounds its not that easy. If Bedford wants to sell anything it would be the Chatauqua certificate because he no longer wants 50 seaters
50 XT6Wagon: Why? Not only is WN not actualy a LCC, but none of the successful competition are really LCC's. LCC is way over used to describe anything but a "lega
51 GSPSPOT: Funny how things come full-circle. Pre-deregulation "regional" carriers like Southern and Piedmont filled this niche beautifully.
52 rampart: It's my understanding that PHX is closed or curtailed as many times for dust storms as DEN is for blizzards. DEN had a tornado on one corner of the f
53 sccutler: I was as skeptical as anyone when Republic successfully won out in the bid to purchase Frontier, but now, I think they've got themselves a decent litt