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DL, US Slot Swap Still On  
User currently offlinejetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 3365 posts, RR: 35
Posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 13329 times:

Its not over until its over, it appears...

Quote:
Delta Air Lines Inc., US Airways Group Inc. and federal officials have told the U.S. district court of appeals for the District of Columbia they may be able to resolve a dispute over airport landing slots in New York and Washington that prompted a lawsuit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...rport-slot-dispute.html?cmpid=yhoo

126 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinerl757pvd From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4718 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 13322 times:

Figures right after Delta adds PVD-DCA. But at least Delta would likely serve PVD-NYC better than US does


Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlinemogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 13255 times:

Quoting rl757pvd (Reply 1):
But at least Delta would likely serve PVD-NYC better than US does

LGA slots are too valuable to be spent on PVD due to proximity (except maybe like 2x commuter flights). Competition from rail and bus is strong.

PVG-JFK makes more sense for DL to connect to their international network.

For domestic connectivity, pax can either drive up to BOS or do PVD-DTW/ATL, which is ample


User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5794 posts, RR: 28
Reply 3, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 13179 times:

I personally would have liked to have seen US Airways do a makeover of sorts and really utilize their LGA slots effectively. No, I don't have the "answer", but I picture E190's in a sort of Economy Plus/Business hybrid up front as well as standard Economy. It just seems a shame that they haven't been able to do more with what they have there, particularly as a memeber of Star.

A LGA/PHL/DCA/CLT structure should be a golden egg in Star's basket, but it's more a mixed bag.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlinenwaesc From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 3408 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 13094 times:

Quoting jetlanta (Thread starter):
Its not over until its over, it appears...

So it would seem...

Anyone have an idea of what specifics these new talks might entail? Apologies if I missed it.



"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
User currently offlinewashingtonian From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 13033 times:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 3):
A LGA/PHL/DCA/CLT structure should be a golden egg in Star's basket, but it's more a mixed bag.

You would think, right?

I don't know why US never seems to have made much of LGA. Probably because they are US. I have no doubt that other airlines could use the LGA infrastructure (slots, gates, etc) both profitably and in a way that increases options for NYC travelers. Leave it to US to make a mess of some of the most valuable slots in the country...


User currently offlinejetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 3365 posts, RR: 35
Reply 6, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 13031 times:

Quoting nwaesc (Reply 4):
Anyone have an idea of what specifics these new talks might entail? Apologies if I missed it.

I suspect the deal will end up looking a whole lot like a hybrid of the DOT's last requirement and the last DL/US proposal. The net of that is that Delta ought to grow by about 100 daily flights at LGA and take over the US terminals. US will gain about 30 trips at DCA. It will be interesting to see what the rest of the deal looks like.


User currently offlinedutchflyboi From Netherlands, joined Apr 2008, 338 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 13035 times:

Kinda interesting, since DL has hired over 80 new agents above wing and about 60 new agents below wing at DCA... If the swap goes through, I guess that a lot of those people will be out of jobs again  

User currently offlinejetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 3365 posts, RR: 35
Reply 8, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 12929 times:

Quoting washingtonian (Reply 5):
You would think, right?

I don't know why US never seems to have made much of LGA. Probably because they are US. I have no doubt that other airlines could use the LGA infrastructure (slots, gates, etc) both profitably and in a way that increases options for NYC travelers. Leave it to US to make a mess of some of the most valuable slots in the country...


In their defense, there are only so many places you can fly from LGA. And virtually all have bigger, stronger competitors than US Airways in them. Despite the LGA slots, US has always been a weak player in the NYC market because it doesn't have long-haul domestic or international flying. Therefore, they struggle to win corporate business. So they end up being the #3 or #4 choice to RDU, for example.

It used to be that LGA slots were valuable to Florida, but US just can't compete with the LCC's in those point-to-point markets.

US also has a lot of AIR-21 slots that are required to be used to smaller markets. BGM-LGA just isn't a goldmine.

And, finally, US is generally a weaker player on the other end of most of the better markets. So, for example, LGA-STL is just something that US could never pull off.

Delta, on the other hand, is much stronger in NYC and in the destination markets. It has its hands firmly around many of the top corporations and can leverage that.

Importantly, Delta can combine its existing slots with the US slots and more effectively manage the AIR-21 portfolio. It can also take slots that US was using in competitive markets, say RDU, and use them to open up new markets, say PNS. That improves P&L performance in the RDU market and opens up a new revenue stream to/from PNS.

US, conversely, gets to do pretty much the same thing at DCA.


User currently offlinerl757pvd From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4718 posts, RR: 11
Reply 9, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 12924 times:

Quoting mogandoCI (Reply 2):
LGA slots are too valuable to be spent on PVD due to proximity (except maybe like 2x commuter flights). Competition from rail and bus is strong.

The trains are full, at least the ones for business travelers (Acela) There is also sizeable demand to business markets such as ORF RIC, BUF, ROC and many more that is currently being lost to other airlines because Delta cant effectively serve them from their hubs. Those 4 cities alone are over 300 O&D each day. Up until recent years, PVD has often had 20-30 daily flights to NYC. I think is that DL flies what US currently does 3-5x LGA (7x a couple years ago) but with CRJs, but the fact that its more important to DL than US to be flying that route, a higher level of service will result.



Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5794 posts, RR: 28
Reply 10, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 12779 times:

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 8):
In their defense, there are only so many places you can fly from LGA. And virtually all have bigger, stronger competitors than US Airways in them. Despite the LGA slots, US has always been a weak player in the NYC market because it doesn't have long-haul domestic or international flying. Therefore, they struggle to win corporate business. So they end up being the #3 or #4 choice to RDU, for example.

Oh, I agree. However, you would think that there would be some advantage as being part of Star Alliance of leveraging that membership in the New York marketplace. I believe that they lack domestic codesharing with UA, but certainly the FF link should be helpful.

Oh well, it is what it is, and if US can be stronger at DCA, I guess that will be valuable. At this point, though, I think that US in Star is a marginal proposition, and they might find themselves without a dance partner if AA and JetBlue continue to get closer.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6733 posts, RR: 24
Reply 11, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 12730 times:

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 6):
It will be interesting to see what the rest of the deal looks like.

I think that is the bigger question. Trading away 100 slots for 30 isn't a very good deal for US? So what else do they get? The NRT/Brazil authorities in the last deal are largely useless at this point.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 8):
Importantly, Delta can combine its existing slots with the US slots and more effectively manage the AIR-21 portfolio. It can also take slots that US was using in competitive markets, say RDU, and use them to open up new markets, say PNS.

True, though I expect DL will run into some of the same problems that US did. There are only so many markets that are viable from LGA, since much of the traffic will be O&D. For example, I doubt PNS-LGA would really be viable. Too small for mainline and too long for an RJ (given the RJ CASM).

DL will likely fair better than US (give the items you mentioned), but I doubt DL will find a profitable use for all 100 slots. I expect DL will continue to squat on quite a few slots simply to keep them out of the hands of others.


In the bigger picture, this is bad news for CVG/MEM. To support the LGA expansion, a lot of RJ's will have to come from somewhere. DCA will obviously lose some, but not nearly enough to cover LGA. With DL's declining RJ/prop numbers, CVG/MEM will suffer.


User currently offlinejetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 3365 posts, RR: 35
Reply 12, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 12570 times:

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 11):
I think that is the bigger question. Trading away 100 slots for 30 isn't a very good deal for US? So what else do they get? The NRT/Brazil authorities in the last deal are largely useless at this point.

That depends on the economic value of the slots themselves to US. If LGA slots are big losers to US and DCA slots are big winners, a one-to-one swap ratio isn't really applicable.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 11):
True, though I expect DL will run into some of the same problems that US did. There are only so many markets that are viable from LGA, since much of the traffic will be O&D. For example, I doubt PNS-LGA would really be viable. Too small for mainline and too long for an RJ (given the RJ CASM).

DL will likely fair better than US (give the items you mentioned), but I doubt DL will find a profitable use for all 100 slots. I expect DL will continue to squat on quite a few slots simply to keep them out of the hands of others.

No doubt this will be a challenge, particularly in the early years. I expect to see lots of 70-76 seaters at LGA, which can make the economics of some longer-haul flying better. I have no idea if PNS is on the agenda, but it is an example of what they could do. They could also build out patterns in places like GRR, MSN, SAV. I think they'll take a look at moving over a lot of the JFK flying to prime Florida markets to LGA (MCO, FLL, TPA, etc...) In the place of that JFK flying, they MAY look to places like DAB, MLB, SRQ, PNS to utilize those slots. (They'd obviously still try to keep the major markets on the prime JFK banks.) You will also likely see them continue to build a stronger presence in markets like IND, STL, BNA, CMH, ORD, YYZ, YUL. Anything inside the perimeter that is considered a sizable business market will likely see emphasis.

UA is the new enemy and they will be going after the markets where CO has been strong to NYC. This is a once-in-a-generation chance to really shake-up the competitive balance in NYC. Despite the obvious advantages that UA has at EWR in terms of a single operation, LGA and JFK are still the primary and preferred NYC airports. This will be the first time that one airline has had the muscle to really compete head-to-head for the local market against UA(CO). Its going to be a fascinating battle. UA has the advantage of international connections beyond EWR, a nicer facility (for now), and years of establishment in many of these markets. I think Delta has the advantage of preferential airport (LGA mainly), and its point of sale (POS) presence in the spoke markets. DL is disproportionately bigger in most of the spokes and can drive share from that end (where the majority of the demand is typically generated). In NYC, Delta's expansion gives it some POS upside, while UA will be defending what it already has.

I also would expect a renewed push to expand the perimeter and allow longer haul flying from LGA. That will be a tough row, but I think it is likely to be a point of emphasis for DL.

A big question becomes, what of AA's NYC "Cornerstone"? It seems like they are in a very difficult predicament all around.


User currently offlineGoBoeing From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 2727 posts, RR: 15
Reply 13, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 12577 times:

Anyone heard of an eight-for-eight rumor?

8 330s from US to DL in exchange for 8 767-300ERs?


User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5794 posts, RR: 28
Reply 14, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 12542 times:

Quoting GoBoeing (Reply 13):
Anyone heard of an eight-for-eight rumor?

8 330s from US to DL in exchange for 8 767-300ERs?

As someone who has wanted to see the 763 at US, this would be awesome. However, the 330's are a great aircraft, so would this be because the Airbus' are too big/capable/expensive?

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlinemayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 10670 posts, RR: 14
Reply 15, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 12498 times:

Quoting GoBoeing (Reply 13):
Anyone heard of an eight-for-eight rumor?

8 330s from US to DL in exchange for 8 767-300ERs?

Might not be a bad idea, depending on the age of the 330s, compared to the 763s. If they can get rid of older 763s before they start refurbishing the cabins and get some newer 330s, that might be a good deal, even tho they would probably have to refurbish the cabins on the 330s, anyway.



"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11979 posts, RR: 62
Reply 16, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 12423 times:

Interesting.

This is getting ridiculous already - the feds should let Delta and USAirways do what they want. Let the market optimize capacity allocation (i.e., not running 20 daily turboprops to PHL, etc.). If USAirways no longer has a use for these slots, and Delta thinks they can put them to more effective use, then so be it.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 11):
True, though I expect DL will run into some of the same problems that US did. There are only so many markets that are viable from LGA, since much of the traffic will be O&D.

True. Delta claims they're going to shift all the current USAirways flying to RJs, up-gauge, and maintain every market currently served. Good luck with that. USAirways is having trouble making some of these markets work with lower-cost props, so I find it hard to believe that Delta will be able to profitably make RJs work, but will be fun to watch.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 12):
A big question becomes, what of AA's NYC "Cornerstone"?

Well, AA is still in denial thinking they somehow have an unparalleled franchise in New York. AA does have some core strengths to build on - the premium transcon dominance, the Chicago shuttle, the London shuttle with BA - but have a long way to go and a lot of holes to fill in to truly be on-par with Delta and United (Continental).

I think the interesting thing if this deal goes - and this is all just hypothetical - is what this might spur AA to do. Of course, there really is only one thing AA could do: buy JetBlue. Now I know, I know, there are a million reasons why not - and I have been one of the most outspoken about those reasons why not. But, if AA feels sufficiently threatened - despite Arpey's continued assurance that they will only pursue organic growth notwithstanding - AA definitely has the cash right now to buy JetBlue outright.

And, from a competitive landscape perspective, that would not be attractive for Delta. Overnight, AA + JetBlue would not only become the largest at JFK, but have a powerful opportunity to build a strong international and domestic connecting hub at JFK to rival Delta, get close to United at Newark, and take some wind out of the sails of Delta's "split hub" approach. JetBlue has tons of slots at JFK being used for Florida that AA may want to move to more premium international and/or higher-yielding domestic/regional markets, plus I believe JetBlue also has slots unused altogether.

Just thinking out loud - but an interesting hypothetical, me thinks ...


User currently offlinetimf From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 971 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 12383 times:
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Quoting GoBoeing (Reply 13):
Anyone heard of an eight-for-eight rumor?

8 330s from US to DL in exchange for 8 767-300ERs?

I'm not sure how this would help push the deal forward. The main sticking point after factoring in the FAA's compromise was that US wasn't getting as much from the deal as DL was. I don't see how US losing 8 higher-valued A330-300s to pick up 8 lower-valued 767-300s would aid the deal unless there was also a significant cash transaction associated with it.

The US A330-300s (MSN 315-388) are several years older than the DL A330-300s (MSN 524-865), but newer than all but a couple of the 767-300s.


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6826 posts, RR: 32
Reply 18, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 12368 times:

Quoting GoBoeing (Reply 13):
Anyone heard of an eight-for-eight rumor?

8 330s from US to DL in exchange for 8 767-300ERs?

I can't really see it happening when you consider the age of US's 767-200ER fleet and their outstanding orders for A330's and A350's, but...

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 14):
However, the 330's are a great aircraft, so would this be because the Airbus' are too big/capable/expensive?

Given US's smaller-market hubs, I'd guess that filling the A330-300's is a challenge for six months of the year. However, trading away eight of them would make for an A330 fleet that would be uneconomical due to its small size.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 11):
Trading away 100 slots for 30 isn't a very good deal for US?

Depends on if they can make any money on those 100 slots. Apparently, they were losing $50 million/year at LGA at the time the slot swap was originally proposed.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 6):
I suspect the deal will end up looking a whole lot like a hybrid of the DOT's last requirement and the last DL/US proposal.

The public temper tantrum over the DOT's rejection of the deal and resulting lawsuit weren't likely to gain them any friends in the government. The regulations state that LGA slots cannot be sold or transferred without a waiver from the Secretary of Transportation; that's why they couldn't proceed with the deal without DOT approval. The approach of talking to DOT to come to a mutually acceptable compromise should have been taken long ago.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6733 posts, RR: 24
Reply 19, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 12343 times:

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 12):
If LGA slots are big losers to US and DCA slots are big winners, a one-to-one swap ratio isn't really applicable.

I don't expect a one-to-one ratio, but 3:1 seems way off. The 30 slots at DCA won't create that much value for US. They don't have that meaningful of an effect on US's overall marketshare in DCA or metro Washington.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 12):
I think they'll take a look at moving over a lot of the JFK flying to prime Florida markets to LGA

I'm not sure if this really produces a lot of value for DL...particularly as they will likely face more LCC competition to Florida as some of the divested slots will go to LCC's who will also fly to Florida.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 12):
This will be the first time that one airline has had the muscle to really compete head-to-head for the local market against UA(CO). Its going to be a fascinating battle.

I don't think it will be that big of a battle. I think both carriers have their markets carved out well-enough, that they can easily co-exist. There will be some chest thumping, but not a big battle. As you mentioned later in your post, I think AA has the most to lose in this deal as it's really they who have to fight DL for the LGA/JFK crowd. UA can live mostly off of the Northern NJ/Manhattan crowd, plus good connecting flows and survive easily.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 12):
I also would expect a renewed push to expand the perimeter and allow longer haul flying from LGA. That will be a tough row, but I think it is likely to be a point of emphasis for DL.

This one is a bit of a double edged sword. You kill the perimeter rule and while you'll win some new customers at LGA, you'll be chopping away some of the feed at the JFK hub. DL can't afford to have JFK transcons become a bunch of bargain basement fares (while all the high yield traffic migrates to LGA). It will hurt that hub.


User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5794 posts, RR: 28
Reply 20, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 12295 times:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 18):
Given US's smaller-market hubs, I'd guess that filling the A330-300's is a challenge for six months of the year. However, trading away eight of them would make for an A330 fleet that would be uneconomical due to its small size.

Sure, but in the not-to-distant future they have more A330s and then A350's coming. This could allow them to reduce their cost structure and right-size their widebody fleet in the shortterm while perhaps positioning themselves better for their increasingly isolated role in the US aviation marketplace.

Or it could just be hot air.  

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlinejetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 3365 posts, RR: 35
Reply 21, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 12273 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 16):
And, from a competitive landscape perspective, that would not be attractive for Delta. Overnight, AA JetBlue would not only become the largest at JFK, but have a powerful opportunity to build a strong international and domestic connecting hub at JFK to rival Delta, get close to United at Newark, and take some wind out of the sails of Delta's "split hub" approach. JetBlue has tons of slots at JFK being used for Florida that AA may want to move to more premium international and/or higher-yielding domestic/regional markets, plus I believe JetBlue also has slots unused altogether.

Comm, the problem with this is multifold:

A. JetBlue won't come cheap.
B. AA has better use for capital, like paying down debt or stockpiling cash.
C. The costs don't end at buying JetBlue. A facilities solution for AA/B6 at JFK is probably more expensive than the B6 purchase itself. (Delta's little JFK expansion is costing $1.2B!)
D. Without the facilities solution, a AA/B6 merger loses much of its benefit.
E. JFK is not now, and will likely never be, a business market airport for markets inside the LGA perimeter. (the number of domestic business markets of any size outside the perimeter is very small...and they are nearly all well-served today.)
F. Without viable business markets (BNA, STL, IND, MKE, ATL, etc...), JFK will be for AA what it is for B6, a point-to-point leisure market gateway.
G. With AA's inherent costs, those leisure markets become uneconomical.
H. Even if they were to work all of this out, they'd barely have more slots at JFK than DL has at LGA. (Delta will have about 270 after the swap.)

At the end of the day, B6 is a VERY expensive solution for AA that seems destined to fail. This should be evidenced by exactly how much capacity AA has in the ORD-JFK market versus the ORD-LGA market.


User currently offlinedeltal1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9700 posts, RR: 15
Reply 22, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 12255 times:

Quoting GoBoeing (Reply 13):

not sure what/why they would do that. Its not like US couldn't find 763s if they wanted them.
Plus 8 for 8 would leave US with one 333......what would be the point of that?

Quoting timf (Reply 17):

The US A330-300s (MSN 315-388) are several years older than the DL A330-300s (MSN 524-865), but newer than all but a couple of the 767-300s.

also IIRC US 333s have GEs and the US 332s have RRs. Not sure DL would want a sub fleet of 8 planes. (now I could see DL wanting more 332s, and I would love to see Trent powered 332s around here but i would say No way DL gets more 333s.)



yep.
User currently offlinejetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 3365 posts, RR: 35
Reply 23, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 12173 times:

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 22):
not sure what/why they would do that. Its not like US couldn't find 763s if they wanted them. Plus 8 for 8 would leave US with one 333......what would be the point of that?

It sort of would depend on who owns the airplanes today.

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 22):
also IIRC US 333s have GEs and the US 332s have RRs. Not sure DL would want a sub fleet of 8 planes. (now I could see DL wanting more 332s, and I would love to see Trent powered 332s around here but i would say No way DL gets more 333s.)

Looks like GE's to me.

http://www.airliners.net/photo/US-Ai...d=2118fac6c59f6a4f80e32a4a4545b1e9


User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5373 posts, RR: 24
Reply 24, posted (3 years 11 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 12078 times:

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 22):
also IIRC US 333s have GEs

US's 333s are PW powered.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
25 Flighty : Both airports need the perimeter rule eliminated. Just sayin'.
26 commavia : No argument - although AA has the cash should they choose to deploy it. Again. no argument - I didn't say it was an optimized solution, only that it
27 jetlanta : I couldn't believe how hard that was to find online! I knew for sure they weren't RR's! Anyway, PW's certainly aren't foreign to the Delta fleet. LOL
28 PlanesNTrains : Were it not for the international route overlap/underlap, I always thought a DL+AA merger would have made a lot of sense pre-NW. -Dave
29 smoot4208 : I can't but this at all. MAYBE, big if, US could say 100 LGA slots for 30+ DCA slots and some nice sub-leases on like 2 A332s. But even that seems un
30 silentbob : I couldn't agree more. There will have to be some sweetener from DL if they only swap the number of approved slots, a couple aircraft would help out
31 FSDan : I hope this goes through just so the LGA slots are put to better use. I hate the way US uses their slots. They currently have 21 daily LGA-PHL flights
32 jetlanta : I think the thing is that of course you could make it work, but out goes the attractiveness of using it as a connecting facility versus EWR, IAD, DTW
33 VictorKilo : I could also see a package where US gets the DCA slots and 20 319's, DL gets the LGA slots and 20 733's - the entire US fleet - which they promptly s
34 PSU.DTW.SCE : Huh?? Where did all this speculation about aircraft swaps being part of the deal start??? And there is no way whatever you just proposed above would
35 apodino : The biggest joke is currently LGA-AVL. More than half the time I see this flight the passenger count is in single digits. 21 daily LGA-PHL is overkil
36 Post contains images jetlanta : I am wondering when we are going to see the speculation of the post-deal Delta network from LGA/JFK. 450+ roundtrips is a lot of flying. Where are th
37 Flighty : Why is it baffling... LGA way under capacity because there is no demand for more. The market limitations are so severe, nobody wants to fly from LGA
38 Post contains images OA412 : It really does seem that way sometimes. AA has always been strong in New York, but they now face competition from two very large carriers as well as
39 ScottB : No, LGA is under capacity because the slots are allocated inefficiently. Incumbent slot holders have an incentive to restrict capacity and use slots
40 jetlanta : I think they are fairly well focused on what they need to do. Their problem is the toolbox they have. There just aren't a lot of options at the momen
41 seabosdca : I think these ideas of fleet swaps are outside the bounds of reality. This will be a deal involving slots and cash. Yes, please. I'd like to see renew
42 apodino : Just a thought though...why use slots on stuff like LGA-AVL when there are other big cities around? I know this may stir up a hornets nest, but desti
43 Post contains images OA412 : Oh no kidding! I can hear them all now. I think this is a pretty good assessment of AA's situation in New York.
44 Post contains links jetlanta : A WaPo piece on the deal. Not much new, but further clarification that there seems to be something afoot. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/dr-.../airl
45 Post contains links sdexplorer00 : And here is why the slots might be more important to US: WASHINGTON—US Airways Group Inc. and United Airlines are girding for a battle over whether
46 apodino : I think the term Unholy Alliance might apply to Star Alliance here. The key thing though is that if I understand this correctly, the perimeter rule w
47 smoot4208 : That would never happen. Plus US still has 40 737-400s, so they wouldn't be saving on anything Since the 90s, US has been in last place in NYC, partl
48 phatfarmlines : UA/CO will find a way to give US "das boot" from the Star Alliance if this happens. We are starting to witness toes being stepped on, much in the sam
49 jfklganyc : "Anything at JFK that looks like a business market, but doesn't connect to international, will move to LGA, I imagine. JFK will see more leisure flyin
50 MaverickM11 : While I hear that, I don't see how DL will get any revenue premium for that over what US is flying right now with smaller equipment. The competition
51 jetlanta : On 50-seaters. I didn't say anything about CRJs. CO and NK had nonstops to NYC on mainline from MLB until 9/11...2x daily. I think the economics are
52 Post contains links deltal1011man : No the 332s are Trent 700s, but the 333s are PW powered. Jet do you think Delta would want 8 333s? Seems like alot of seats. I would think they would
53 rolo987 : Why do you think US started flying JFKCLT then? B6 response?
54 Post contains images planeguy727 : Just to - perhaps US is thinking about swapping 330s for 763 in preparation for the oft speculated AA merger and better fleet commonality in the l/h a
55 RobertS975 : The competitive climate surrounding the DL/US proposed swap changed dramatically with the WN buyout of FL.
56 cslusarc : Personally, with all this talk on slot swaps, I think that I would rather see US and DL need to merge together. Over the past 3 decades consumers have
57 Cubsrule : I could see something like this: 4x LAX 3x SFO 2x SEA 2x SAN 1x PDX ...and, additionally, perhaps more PHX flights.
58 Flighty : If there is a profitable additional LGA-Florida market, why wouldn't US Airways fly it? Do they often turn down profitable domestic flying? This is a
59 Post contains images mayor : I don't think that DL wants THOSE labor problems.
60 Flighty : Airlines are pretty good at computing the profit of an LGA-DTW versus LGA-AVL. The AVL flight might profit $100,000 while the DTW mainline flight mig
61 apodino : First of all, why do those type of routes have to be the E170 or bigger? A CRJ-200 or ERJ, though not ideal from a passenger point of view, would sti
62 peanuts : Great post! Some of what you speak of is already happening. The DL/NW, UA/CO mergers have or will reduce capacity. I could see AA and US. Too many RJ
63 smoot4208 : AA already tried several years ago 50 seat RJs to business destinations w/o F class and failed. They have since brought many of those routes back wit
64 planeguy727 : I suggest your comment is actually opinion. If people in NYC don't think of US, they would be out of town by now. I admit that I am a preferred US fl
65 smoot4208 : Essentially, US has the same problem in LGA as DL has in LAX
66 AVLAirlineFreq : As someone who flies AVL-NYC often, I can't necessarily argue that the market is oversaturated with 2x to EWR (in high season) on CO, 1x to LGA on DL
67 jfklganyc : "Why do you think US started flying JFKCLT then? B6 response?" 100% yes! "If there is a profitable additional LGA-Florida market, why wouldn't US Airw
68 Post contains images jetlanta : The problem with both of your theories is that they are completely non-fact based. As you can see, despite US slot holdings at LGA, they are effectiv
69 Cubsrule : Whilst the magnitude of the problem is unquestionably different, I don't know that they are any different in kind; in both places, the relevant carri
70 DeltAirlines : Yes and no. JetBlue surely had a big part of it, but the timing of the merger with America West did too. Before the merger, US Airways had no operati
71 par13del : Bit of a sidetrack but the perimeter rule at LGA is to protect LGA or JFK and do any of them still need protecting after all these years?
72 ca2ohHP : Agreed. US doesn't want to be fighting for domination at a hub (LAX, JFK, etc... in other carrier's situations). The DCA perimeter rule is also more
73 jetlanta : Cubs, no offense, but there is NO DATA to support that. Y'all keep saying stuff like that. I guess it is some kind of "feeling" that people have. But
74 peanuts : So why would this be a ridiculous scenario? 1.US does a deal with DL. 2.US grows more dominant at DCA. 3.DL solidifies NYC 4.US-AA merge (labor on bot
75 jetlanta : US won't have 3% after the swap.
76 papatango : What is the "new" deal going to look like?
77 DCA-ROCguy : Airlines have never "lost pricing power." The "consumers are the problem in air travel" argument one often sees at this site is meritless. Airline ma
78 Cubsrule : You transformed my statement into "DL hasn't boarded an LAX passenger in years." I never said that, and do not believe that - I said it's a similar k
79 smoot4208 : Someone by the username LAX (not sure if it was LAX International or not) posted data (all I remember was that DL scored the lowest out of the four a
80 DeltaMD90 : What were the details surrounding the Wright Amendment and DAL? Could we see the same battle fought for LGA and DCA?
81 peanuts : Correct. The way I figured is that they wouldn't go to zero and IF a AA merger would they place, their frequent flyers are likely to stay resulting i
82 Post contains images OA412 : Interesting data Jetlanta, thanks for posting. Nice to see how much DL has grown in NYC over the last few years and how close they are to CO in reven
83 deltal1011man : Yes someone posted some survey that said this.....but I could walk up to 10 DL FFs in LAX and ask them who they fly the most and post that as Data. J
84 Cubsrule : Of course, that also makes the smaller (flight-wise) Delta somewhere between 1/6 and 1/5 smaller than AA revenue-wise (IIRC, AA's revenue share is in
85 smoot4208 : While I'm sure DL has it's FF as do all the legacies; what I'm saying is that if DL had a "qualifying" amount of flyers at LAX, they wouldn't have ke
86 Post contains images deltal1011man : Ok, UA (i believe it was UA, may have been AA) has failed at LAX-BDL....does that make them a failure in LA? Nooo. 3 routes, Delta is up 30% in LA, a
87 Cubsrule : All right. What's different now?
88 deltal1011man : ........... that hole merger thing.......
89 Cubsrule : Yes, but what does that have to do with LAX? NW wasn't real strong in LAX either, so the base isn't appreciably different. Why would the merger make
90 smoot4208 : They have operated PHX three different times since the mid 90s. I'm not intentionally picking out cities Dl doesn't serve. I picked large markets. Fo
91 deltal1011man : because DL has to have point(s) to over fly NRT from, LAX/SEA/DTW are it.
92 nycdave : DL's revenue is significantly helped by the number of international destinations they serve. When you're looking at very broad data like that, you're
93 jetlanta : I've never denied that. My point is that Delta generates 47% of its LAX revenue in LAX. Some would have you believe that Delta doesn't generate ANYTH
94 STT757 : Does that chart you posted in reply #68 include NJ residents?.. The reason why I ask is CO+UA handle something like 23-25 million passengers per year
95 STT757 : I think the table posted in reply #68 is a little misleading, CO+UA is only getting 6 million O&D passengers based on 28 million passengers they
96 Cubsrule : True, though AA has taken similar actions and has announced quite a bit of new longhaul flying. Seems like UA more so than AA might be the loser, and
97 smoot4208 : During the employee news session today, President Kirby said he was cautiously optimistic that a deal between US/DL would/could be reached in the next
98 jetlanta : Which probably means it is a done deal, they are just wrapping up the implementation and communication plans.
99 Post contains images smoot4208 : Parker briefly touched on it as well. Since they are involved with the DOT/FAA; I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of deal with them that they
100 ScottB : That cannot happen unless the Congress acts; the perimeter rule at DCA was established by an Act of Congress, not by DOT/FAA. The LGA perimeter is di
101 Post contains images enilria : Sorry I'm late to posting into this disaster of a thread. My bet is that poor Southwest (the largest domestic airline in the USA) will get more slots
102 ERJ170 : I very well could be mistaken, but I thought that RDU service to LGA is mostly O&D.. EWR and JFK is usually less, but LGA is most O&D with lo
103 rwy04lga : I think he meant that it's likely that more people Originate in CMH destined for LGA rather than Originating in LGA Destined for CMH. People in small
104 Maverick623 : You know, I thought that was a silly idea, and then this gem pops up: Where do you people hear this stuff? It's expensive as hell to trade airplanes,
105 BOACCunard : Shafted?
106 delimit : The AA deal, I'm guessing.
107 malaysia : Would it be a 77L or 772 for PVG-JFK?
108 Post contains images EASTERN : They were confident it would pass the first time they announced the deal. They were also confident they could come to an agreement the first time the
109 LAXtoATL : Well, this time the DOT and FAA have joined them in saying they think a deal is likely to be reached.
110 Cubsrule : Why? It's just time killing waiting for the deal to go through. Had the deal died, they'd have quickly shifted those slots elsewhere and, obviously,
111 smoot4208 : That flight was operated to CLT. US has said there shuttle routes and mainline flights do well. (The Shuttle is really their only competitive advanta
112 mayor : I actually don't think that GoBoeing meant that this was part of the slot swap deal. I could be wrong, but it just seems like it got interjected wher
113 ScottB : Sure. And Southwest's MDW-LGA/LGA-MDW load factor in August was 95% because people in NYC think of Southwest when it comes to travel.
114 enilria : Correct, as I stated in some detail, people in larger cities tend to look down on smaller cities and not choose to spend their time there. It may be
115 ScottB : Probably true, but the competitive landscape has changed pretty dramatically in the past three years. When LH bought into B6, it probably looked like
116 LDVAviation : You think the Lakers sponsorship is going to help Delta with local O&D? It doesn't work that way in LA.
117 OA412 : It's about increasing advertising in the local area and getting the airline's name out there. Jetlanta has actually said that it's a very small start
118 peanuts : I don't believe that is what was written. The way I read it: Delta is serious about LAX in 2011. Evidence of that: They are pumping money into advert
119 Post contains images peanuts : Exactly. You beat me to it. Anyone that still keeps getting a sour taste in their mouth when LAX and DL are mentioned in the same sentence better get
120 Post contains images OA412 : People need to get over this idea of DL having grandiose plans regarding LAX. DL has never officially stated that they planned to turn LAX into some
121 jetlanta : And as others have pointed out, I clearly wasn't saying that. But it does indicate that Delta is investing in the region..as do the dozens of additio
122 gigneil : Am I the only one that doesn't think that US Airways has facilities issues with processing many, if any, more flights at DCA? The security checkpoint
123 LAXtoATL : The slot swap deal that was presented before included gate and terminal facilities transfers along with the slots (at least at LGA I remember specifi
124 smoot4208 : I believe DL was to give up like 4 gates IIRC
125 gigneil : No doubt, I'm sure you're right. I'm interested in the particulars, since logistically it would require QUITE the shuffle. Basically DL would have to
126 futureuscapt : IF the swap were to finally occur, my guess is that the facility transfer would be one of two scenarios in which DL uses 3-4 less gates than they do
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