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Likelihood Of A 4th Alliance?  
User currently offlineMCO2BRS From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2007, 583 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 4 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 1824 times:

There have been 2 past threads (that I was able to find) regarding a potential 4th alliance being established. It is becoming increasingly evident that in order to remain competitive joining an alliance is the way forward for most. The most recent A.net thread on this subject stated that LY was allegedly setting up an alliance 'within 90 days' and that was 5 months ago, and as far as I know, nothing has come to fruition... is there any further update on this?

El Al To Found 4th Global Airline Alliance (by castroprauxel Aug 17 2010 in Civil Aviation)?threadid=4901552&searchid=4902020&s=4th+alliance#ID4902020

I think there is probably room for one more alliance, certainly if a 4th alliance was to be founded it would likely be initiated by a middle eastern carrier. I know its popular belief here on A.net that the big Gulf state carriers have very deep pockets and can 'afford' to go it alone, but I feel that the smaller of them (EY, QR & GF) would benefit greatly from being in an alliance. Has it now become a case of 'who blinks first?' and joins or starts a new alliance? Living in the shadow of EK cannot be easy, and like it or not, they are a force to be reckoned with, and joining or starting a new alliance would help secure their future.

I have often thought what a 4th alliance would look like, it would obviously have GF, EY or QR as a founding member, a shortlist from my point of view, would have 8U, DY, EI, MH, G3, WS, JM/BW, HU, UN on board.

This isn't taking into consideration any of the U.S. carriers because there is a lot of consolidation going on there, and more to come I think, making a U.S. member unlikely. Also not considered, are airlines already participating in one of the three existing alliances, as switching alliances or dropping out completely.

I am curious to know about the likelihood of a potential 4th alliance, especially when it comes to the Gulf/Middle East carriers.



3 replies: All unread, jump to last
User currently offlineCoal From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2469 posts, RR: 7
Reply 1, posted (5 years 4 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 1763 times:

MH is increasingly likely to go to SkyTeam
WS I thought would go to SkyTeam (or was that OneWorld?)
HU might go to OneWorld

There might be room for a 4th alliance, perhaps of LCCs. However, seems the Middle Eastern carriers will want to remain non-aligned (although QR is very close to many Star Alliance members). And some bigger players which have so far remained independent seem to be getting closer to one of the incumbent 3.


User currently offlineKngkyle From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 491 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (5 years 4 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 1735 times:

I see it as a long shot. It would be interesting to see how they would handle Europe and America. All the big airlines are already in an alliance. Perhaps they could get US Airways to switch since they are kinda the odd man out. I don't really see El Al as being big enough to get one started. EK possibly could though. Virgin Atlantic/America/Blue would be strong contenders too.

User currently offlineMCO2BRS From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2007, 583 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 4 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 1627 times:

Quoting Kngkyle (Reply 2):
I don't really see El Al as being big enough to get one started.

I took the LY thread with a huge pinch of salt, I really can't see them getting an alliance started, and if they were to do so you wouldn't see an airline from a predominantly muslim country participate (not to make this political, but its a reasonable assertion).

Quoting Kngkyle (Reply 2):
EK possibly could though

I don't think EK would be involved in an alliance, they are large enough to stand on their own.

Quoting Kngkyle (Reply 2):
Virgin Atlantic/America/Blue would be strong contenders too.

With the recent development that VS is actively looking at joining an alliance, I can see them going to Star Alliance and not with a prospective new alliance... having said that, if this thread: EY Interested In Majority Stake At VS (by Baschiiii Jan 24 2011 in Civil Aviation) is anything to go by, EY could initiate a new alliance with VS as a co-founding member.



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