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Will Air India Ever Get Any VLA's?  
User currently offlinehannahpa From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 128 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 6 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 3521 times:
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My appologies if this has been discussed before, I checked, but could not find much information. With a population of more than 1.3 Billion people, I was wondering if AI would ever order the 747-8I or the A380. The are one of the fastest growing countries/economies. Could we see any VLAs for them in the near future???
Their 744's are starting to age, and I heard that they want to get rid of their 77Ls (why?). I know that they have 27 787-8 on order; just wondering if they were going to get anything bigger?

36 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinebizmark03 From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 46 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (3 years 6 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 3491 times:

Air India is not in a position right now to order any aircraft. I dont know how can they even afford to buy so many 787's(Govt. bailouts). I guess they have some recovering to do. Also if there was a need for VLA's in the Indian market right now EK would be operating scheduled A380 flights to India . IT has one A380 on order though.

User currently offlineB777LRF From Luxembourg, joined Nov 2008, 1302 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (3 years 6 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 3446 times:

There will undoubtedly come a time when the Indian market has matured to the point VLAs are required. When that happens is a matter of opinion, and while "within this decade" may sound optimistic, it's not an unreasonable guess taking into account the growth of the Indian market over the last decade.

Read somewhere the Indian middle-class population alone is roughly the same as the total for the US. Food for thought.



From receips and radials over straight pipes to big fans - been there, done that, got the hearing defects to prove
User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5732 posts, RR: 48
Reply 3, posted (3 years 6 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 3419 times:

What do you think their 744s are?


That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlinecbphoto From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1551 posts, RR: 5
Reply 4, posted (3 years 6 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 3384 times:

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 3):
What do you think their 744s are?

Umm...presidential charters right now, that's about it! They don't really operate the 747s anywhere, though the 77W are pretty close!

AI need to do a lot financially before they can even consider a VLA!



ETOPS: Engines Turning or Passengers Swimming
User currently offlinetimpdx From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 529 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (3 years 6 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 3341 times:

Much of the India market is so owned by the Gulf carriers and the rest is owned by the European giants. Not much room at all there.

If India ever flys large numbers of VLAs, then it will be from India to Eastern/SE Asia where the Gulf geographic advantage is negated.


User currently offlinehannahpa From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 128 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (3 years 6 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3304 times:
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So the day we see AI, say in the US, North America, will just be a dream for now?? (Lol)  

User currently offlinegr8circle From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 3094 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (3 years 6 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3301 times:

Well, AI has operated the 742/743/744 for 40 years now, so it's not as though India has never seen any VLAs....

As for the future, I think with the advent of the 787 (AI and 9W), there will be more point to point flights rather than the focus on BOM and DEL hubs as in the past........there will be more flights originating in cities like Bangalore, Hyderabad, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Kolkatta, etc. and flying non-stop to European and American cities.....it could possibly turn out to be a model more like what we see in the US today, where in spite of such a large market, hardly any airlines seem to need VLAs.......

I guess, sooner or later, some VLA orders could start appearing when the market justifies it......


User currently offlinegr8circle From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 3094 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (3 years 6 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3295 times:

Quoting hannahpa (Reply 6):
So the day we see AI, say in the US, North America, will just be a dream for now?? (Lol)

AI flies to JFK, EWR and ORD daily......they've been flying to JFK since 1960 or '61....  


User currently offlinegr8circle From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 3094 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (3 years 6 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3266 times:

Quoting cbphoto (Reply 4):
Umm...presidential charters right now, that's about it! They don't really operate the 747s anywhere, though the 77W are pretty close!
AI's 744s are currently used only on India-Gulf sectors, having been withdrawn from the long distance Europe, US and Japan sectors....they are also put to use on the VIP charters for the govt., as mentioned......but their main role is on the short haul Gulf sectors for the time being....

[Edited 2011-01-25 19:45:08]

[Edited 2011-01-25 19:45:37]

User currently offlinehannahpa From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 128 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (3 years 6 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3209 times:
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Quoting gr8circle (Reply 8):
AI flies to JFK, EWR and ORD daily......they've been flying to JFK since 1960 or '61....



My bad. I should have done a little more research. Are these 77L routes? How long is it from JFK, ORD to BOM or DEL?


User currently offlinebizmark03 From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 46 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (3 years 6 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3190 times:

Quoting hannahpa (Reply 10):
Are these 77L routes? How long is it from JFK, ORD to BOM or DEL?

DEL-ORD -77W
DEL- JFK- 77W
BOM - EWR - 77L
All these flights are in the air for 14-16hrs depending on the direction.


User currently offlinethenoflyzone From Canada, joined Jan 2001, 2378 posts, RR: 12
Reply 12, posted (3 years 6 months 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3153 times:

Quoting hannahpa (Reply 6):
So the day we see AI, say in the US, North America, will just be a dream
Quoting gr8circle (Reply 8):
AI flies to JFK, EWR and ORD daily
Quoting bizmark03 (Reply 11):
DEL-ORD -77W
DEL- JFK- 77W
BOM - EWR - 77L

let's not forget DEL-YYZ - 77L daily as well.

Thenoflyzone



us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
User currently offlinebehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4750 posts, RR: 43
Reply 13, posted (3 years 6 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 2862 times:

They dont need to. The capacity on offer with a B 77W is perfectly suited for all their high density route network needs such as JED/RUH/DXB/LON/USA.

What they need to do however is remove F class from their B 777 fleet and have a consistent 2 class product (J/Y) on board which will increase on board capacity.


User currently offlineytz From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1972 posts, RR: 24
Reply 14, posted (3 years 5 months 4 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 2456 times:

Quoting behramjee (Reply 13):
What they need to do however is remove F class from their B 777 fleet and have a consistent 2 class product (J/Y) on board which will increase on board capacity.

This something I've always wondered about. Is F actually worthwhile for airlines? Once would think that they can get a lot more revenue per square foot of cabin space out of J pax.


User currently offlineytz From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1972 posts, RR: 24
Reply 15, posted (3 years 5 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 2417 times:

Should AI pickup VLAs, would anybody care to speculate on the best routes for them to deploy them on?

User currently onlineojas From India, joined Mar 2008, 2957 posts, RR: 24
Reply 16, posted (3 years 5 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 2412 times:

Quoting ytz (Reply 15):
Should AI pickup VLAs, would anybody care to speculate on the best routes for them to deploy them on?

RUH and JED.



A lion does not concern himself with the opinions of the sheep
User currently offlineytz From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1972 posts, RR: 24
Reply 17, posted (3 years 5 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 2355 times:

Quoting ojas (Reply 16):
RUH and JED.

That's rather unambitious, no?

Why not BOM/DEL to LHR and CDG or even BOM-JFK and BOM-PVG?

I would think that eventually AI and 9W might be deploying VLAs from BOM to the major urban and financial centres of the world: London, Paris, New York, Hong Kong, Shanghai. And maybe even Seoul, Tokyo, Singapore and Toronto.

And that would just be from BOM. I'd foresee a much more ambitious list for DEL.

I don't know why people think it's not possible for AI and 9W to fill A380s.

If EK can fill two A380s a day (in short order) to the likes of Manchester, surely several destinations can support daily A380 service to BOM and DEL?


User currently onlineojas From India, joined Mar 2008, 2957 posts, RR: 24
Reply 18, posted (3 years 5 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 2325 times:

Quoting ytz (Reply 17):
Why not BOM/DEL to LHR and CDG or even BOM-JFK and BOM-PVG?

Competition, both direct and indirect. BOM - JFK failed .... for both DL and AI ... BOM - PVG failed for Shnaghai airlines.

Quoting ytz (Reply 17):
That's rather unambitious, no?

Why? The biggest market from India is to the Middle east and particularly Saudi Arabia.

Quoting ytz (Reply 17):
I would think that eventually AI and 9W might be deploying VLAs from BOM to the major urban and financial centres of the world: London, Paris, New York, Hong Kong, Shanghai. And maybe even Seoul, Tokyo, Singapore and Toronto.

Eventually maybe, but still I'm skeptical. The infrastructure of aviation in India has just come to an acceptable stage and that AI has at least defined a hub at DEL.

Quoting ytz (Reply 17):
I don't know why people think it's not possible for AI and 9W to fill A380s.

We have EK, QR, EY, BA, LH all siphoning off traffic from India to the west. And it's not that India has infinite traffic going to these centers. All the above mentioned markets have already reached saturation or are about to do so.

Quoting ytz (Reply 17):
If EK can fill two A380s a day (in short order) to the likes of Manchester, surely several destinations can support daily A380 service to BOM and DEL?

I can't believe you are saying that? Now of I ask you if EK can fill 3 weekly to A380 to YYZ so why can't AC fill a 3 weekly A380 to DXB ... what would you say?

Between BOM/DEL and LHR there are 56 weekly flights served by AI, 9W, IT, BA, VS. To SIN various Indian points are connected by airlines like AI, 9W, IT, IX, MI, SQ, TR, QF. The competition is pretty strong. We do not have the luxury of Canada where our tier 2 airports are protected nor we are a country with a single airline. Most of your prominent A380 operators like EK, SQ, AF, LH are either a single hub airline or they do not have a strong competing airline. In a market like India, A380s can be justified by the already long established hub carriers and in the short term only LH and EK are likely to operate them to India (even EK said they are not in a great hurry to bring the A380 to India)



A lion does not concern himself with the opinions of the sheep
User currently offlineytz From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1972 posts, RR: 24
Reply 19, posted (3 years 5 months 4 weeks ago) and read 2228 times:

Quoting ojas (Reply 18):
I can't believe you are saying that? Now of I ask you if EK can fill 3 weekly to A380 to YYZ so why can't AC fill a 3 weekly A380 to DXB ... what would you say?

Because DXB would be a terminus for AC. And nobody (well relative to the amount of pax EK carries) really wants to fly to Dubai, they just want to fly through it.

That's not quite the same situation for AI/9W/IT. BOM is a destination and a hub in its own right. There should be tons of demand between BOM and other hubs. And certainly the fact that there's 56 flights per week between LHR and BOM shows that there's no shortage of demand. Maybe an A380 would be a good way to drop CASM and imperil the competition.   ...that's just the enthusiast in me talking though.

Quoting ojas (Reply 18):
We do not have the luxury of Canada where our tier 2 airports are protected

That made me laugh. Actually, the whole reason the UAE got into trouble was because they wanted to ram as much as possible into the major centres. And mostly YYZ. EK was refusing to start up anywhere else, if they didn't get daily to YYZ. They didn't even want to go to YUL (which has a large Arab minority...albeit Lebanese Arab minority). It's not that our Tier 2 airports are protected. It's just that the Gulf airlines don't wants to fly to them. You can bet if EK offered daily service to YUL, they would have got it in a heartbeat.

Quoting ojas (Reply 18):
even EK said they are not in a great hurry to bring the A380 to India

Really? This from a carrier that use a 77W like a 737? I always thought the reason they can't go bigger is the seat count restriction in the bilat. I get the feeling that if they had a choice, they might consider using an A380 to drop their casm even further.


User currently onlineojas From India, joined Mar 2008, 2957 posts, RR: 24
Reply 20, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 2126 times:

Quoting ytz (Reply 19):

That's not quite the same situation for AI/9W/IT. BOM is a destination and a hub in its own right. There should be tons of demand between BOM and other hubs. And certainly the fact that there's 56 flights per week between LHR and BOM shows that there's no shortage of demand

Had the useless politicians in India had dome vision for civil aviation, trust me by now Air India would have had A380s flying to LHR, DXB, JFK, HKG and even YYZ. But with the civil aviation sector in the dumps along with the national carrier, we were at the mercy of foreign carriers. It is too late now to order A380s like EK and build a mega terminal at DEL with 500 B777s and 200 A380s. Air India today has issues to fill the B747s, Jet Airways barely can fill their B777s. There is a long way for the Indian carriers to go with the appropriate HELP from the govt, because the biggest enemy of the Indian carriers is the Govt. Of India.

We have seen far more protectionism and it STILL exists today. For example till 2008, no foreign airline was allowed to fly to CCJ. That was Air India's most lucrative sector CCJ - Middle East. As of now IXE is protected from foreign airlines.

Quoting ytz (Reply 19):
You can bet if EK offered daily service to YUL, they would have got it in a heartbeat.

Some people tell me EK was not offered daily YUL.

Quoting ytz (Reply 19):
Really? This from a carrier that use a 77W like a 737?

India is very close to Dubai than Germany or Canada. a BOM - DXB flight is barely 2.5 hrs flying time and the longest flight to a point in India is to CCU. EK would increase frequencies than add A380s. Let me give you an insight on their operations.

BOM :: 5 daily (3 daily B77W + 2 daily A332)
DEL :: 4 daily (2 daily B777 + daily A345 + daily A332)
MAA :: 3 daily (50-50 split of B777 and A332)
HYD:: 3 daily A332
BLR :: 20 weekly A332
COK:: 2 daily (daily B777 + daily A332)
TRV:: 12 weekly A332
CCU:: 12 weekly A332
CCJ:: 11 weekly (6 weekly B772 + 5 weekly A332)
AMD:: 10 weekly A332

If you observe most of the flights are on an A332. There is scope for more frequencies and aircraft upgrade to a B777, so an A380 is not on priority to India at least.



A lion does not concern himself with the opinions of the sheep
User currently offlineAirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2047 times:

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 3):
What do you think their 744s are?

Well actually, according to Boeing and a few 'esteemed' members on this board the 748i is no longer a VLA, so which would mean a 744 isn't either!!


User currently offlinebjorn14 From Norway, joined Feb 2010, 3381 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1885 times:

Quoting bizmark03 (Reply 11):

DEL- JFK- 77W
BOM - EWR - 77L

I'm curious as to why AI doesn't fly to just one NYC area airport? Slots?

Quoting ojas (Reply 20):
As of now IXE is protected from foreign airlines.

Why is this airport protected? Are there any others?



"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8280 posts, RR: 7
Reply 23, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1849 times:
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Why would Air India to order A380 when they wan to sell 777's ? AI needs to get its house in order and the 787's delivered before an A380 get ordered. The 777's are doing what they are supposed to do for AI, teh 77W seats 339 passengers, does AI really need a bigger plane ? IF they need more capacity then remove the First Class cabin, does any meaningful quantity of passengers really pay for AI First Class or is it governmen types going to London and New York for free. AI would be better with a upgraded J class and y.

User currently offlineCOEWR787 From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 336 posts, RR: 3
Reply 24, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1825 times:

Quoting hannahpa (Reply 10):
My bad. I should have done a little more research. Are these 77L routes? How long is it from JFK, ORD to BOM or DEL?

JFK, EWR, or ORD to BOM or DEL can be flows even with a 772ER as is done by some on those routes. AI uses 77W and 77L.

Quoting ojas (Reply 18):
Competition, both direct and indirect. BOM - JFK failed .... for both DL and AI ... BOM - PVG failed for Shnaghai airlines.

What is curious is that BOM - JFK fails and yet BOM - EWR supports two non-stop 777 flights per day (AI and CO) plus a 9W one stop. Actually EWR - BOM is the 10th busiest international route out of EWR according to PANYNJ.


25 ytz : Not quite true. They never even asked. All they wanted was daily to Toronto, followed by dailies to Calgary and Vancouver. There were rumours they we
26 bizmark03 : I don't think, we can expect any Indian airline to have VLA's until we get our airports in shape. DEL is getting there and hopefully BOM will also hav
27 Vimanav : The carriers of DXB have 54200 seats per week into India of which they utilize 98%. EK uses 100% of their available capacity. So if they upgrade to a
28 bizmark03 : So when EK operated the special A380 flight to DEL, they must have exceeded their allowed capacity or did they leave half the seats empty?
29 ojas : Yes but there are too many constraints attached to most of them and honestly CO, AA do not have any other aircraft which is why they are stuck with t
30 hannahpa : Huh???? How can a 748I NOT be a VLA???? This begs the question, what IS the definition of a VLA???? 467 seats is not a VLA???
31 hannahpa : As a follow-up to my thread starter; I didn't realize that air travel in India isn't as robust as other developing countries, such as China. I just as
32 Post contains images ytz : I don't think robust is the right word. More like it's fragmented between so many carriers that only a handful of them can justify using A380s on a f
33 gr8circle : Thats because EK leverages a major hub called DXB.....AI traditionally supported the BOM/DEL model, with passengers from all over India having to con
34 AirIndia : I was on that flight. It was full to capacity! EK had secured special permission from DGCA for that flight. They obliged AAI by getting the 380 for t
35 Vimanav : All those 167 will be narrow body operations. So in terms of utilized capacity it may be approximately 60-65% of permitted capacity. brgds//Vimanav
36 ojas : Oops it is 161 weekly flights, my bad AI/IC :: 53 weekly flights => 8,838 seats approx. AIX :: 52 weekly flights => 9,672 seats approx. 9W :: 3
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